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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Impressions from Cumbria: Labour will win if they can turn the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Impressions from Cumbria: Labour will win if they can turn their vote out
A wet and windy Saturday in Copeland is neither the time nor place to be wearing £250 brogues, as one volunteer reporting for duty in Egremont discovered (he was later spotted sporting rather less stylish but more functional off-white trainers).
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The fact that the facts around maternity at WCH are very complex and any downgrade will never be reversed by a future Labour government is neither here nor there. There is nothing more powerful in human experience than the desire to protect a child in danger and *everyone* locally understands instinctively what a night time journey in bad weather to Carlisle would be like. In essence Labour has finally found a response to the NHS pledge on the side of that bloody bus. It's not pretty and in many ways as dishonest but politics twas ever thus.
I will now doom the Labour campaign by saying I've backed them to win over the campaign as the odds have lengthened. I've been wrong about everything recently so this a harbnger of doom.
SCOTLAND will be taken out of Europe by Brexit even if there is a vote for independence, David Mundell will tell MSPs tomorrow. Attacking one of the main arguments for holding a second referendum before Brexit in 2019, the Scottish Secretary will say continuity EU membership is impossible.
Earlier this month, former First Minister Alex Salmond said there could be a referendum in 2018 to ensure “continuing uninterrupted membership of the European Economic Area”.
However in his opening statement to Holyrood’s European committee about Brexit, Mr Mundell will say: “I think it is important to be clear because there has been a lot of public debate on this point - that Scotland will not be in the EU at the end of this process.
“There is no set of circumstances in which Scotland could remain a member of the EU after the rest of the UK has left.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15105548.Mundell__even_Yes_vote_cannot_stop_Scotland_leaving_EU_under_Brexit/
Expect statement of bleedin obvious to provoke howls of outrage.....
Copeland is a pretty little town, set in stunning scenery, but it really is a place that time forgot. I don’t think the news of national polling has quite reached it yet and so Labour’s 2,564 majority is safe imo.
I have to ask the question, if Corbyn is so ineffective as a Leader, and therefore the Labour party as the main Opposition right now. How would contininuing to vote for a Labour MP in this seat either protect local maternity services from the risk of cuts as the Labour candidate claims, or protect and promote jobs in the nuclear sector in this rural area? Wouldn't the far bigger political upset of a Conservative gain give this rural seat far more clout with the incumbent Government in charge of both the NHS and Nuclear Energy policy in the run up to next GE in what surely would become a vital must hold ultra marginal seat?
I suppose my point is, why would you vote for the Labour candidate in this by-election to protect local health services when their party is so ineffective as an Opposition party that its current polling indicates that another GE would see a Conservative landslide?
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/833651161613946880
The Scottish Government's Supreme Court intervention over Brexit cost more than £130,000, it has emerged.
The government spent £136,418 arguing that it should be given a say in negotiations over Britain's exit from the European Union, including £128,877 on external legal fees.
Judges unanimously dismissed the argument that devolved administrations should be consulted over Article 50.
https://stv.tv/news/politics/1381071-scottish-government-s-brexit-intervention-cost-136-000/
Unlike Salmond who spent tens of thousands trying to cover up the fact he hadn't got legal advice......
I was lucky when I gave birth to my second child, we lived just 10/15 minutes away from the local maternity hospital in Aberdeen. But had I been living where I live now, I would have barely made it it time to make it to that local maternity Unit before it closed. So its not just a case of voting for a candidate that claims to want to protect your local health services, it had better be a local candidate that is in a position to back up their claims and can deliver even when their own party is in Government... For me, it was the defining moment when I realised that the SNP was a political cult, and therefore the overiding objective of Independence came before its locally elected politicians putting the needs of their local communities first. Sadly, it will take the central belt in Scotland a wee bit longer to understand this than it has the former heartlands of the SNP in the North East.
Coming from the North East, I find it very frustrating that the Oil&Gas Industry has funded the rest of the UK for so many years, yet now the SNP are determined to see that same area take the biggest hits in cuts to council spending, stamp duty, etc now the Oil&Gas industry is on its knees. Don't bank on the SNP winning in their former North East heartlands any time soon.
But trying putting that argument on a leaflet. " Vote for us. We won't be able to close your hospital if you do but we definitely will if you don't. "
I don't think there is a town of Copeland, is there? It's a region, with the larger towns and villages including Whitehaven, Egremont, Frizington (one place where I was delivering leaflets), Seascale and Gosforth (where we stayed - Westlakes Hotel much recommended; excellent service).
Now of course the Geography of Cumbria doesn't care about any of that. But the idea this issue is going to go away in the light of the NHS budget over the next 20 years....
Then there is Moorside. One of Reed's last acts was a bizzare public spat with the ONS who published a projection showing Copeland continuing to depopulate. Reed argued they should have factored in the proposed 3 reactors. The ONS said they were just proposed. The subtext was the NHS configuration. The Trust will rub it's hands if Moorside is delayed as it validated their arguments re population size.
In some alternative fantasy world the By-election would have been a cool hard look at why one of the cheapest, prettiest and safest places to live in the UK is depopulating and it's entire economy is predicated on once every 40 year Nuclear Booms followed by 35 year busts. But that would be painful.
So we've had Brexit must mean Brexit vs They will kill your pregnant loved one.
We get the politics we deserve.
Won't happen through, Jeremy's going nowhere, sadly for Labour - and for the need of a decent opposition to the government.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/the-medias-anti-trump-sources-talk-so-much-and-say-so-little/article/2615229?dg
PB has some writers that could bless national newspapers.
Oh, and SeanT.
The Labour leaflets seen of Guido over WCH look to have overstepped the boundary of decency and surely credibility. Although, by historic precedent here in Westmorland but also many times elsewhere for some people the NHS is no more than a modern replacement for Christian religion. The need to believe is so great that no rational analysis can ever take place and even if it did it would be beside the point. Belief transcends the facts.
Babies and at least two mothers have died in Cumbria. Just google the tragedy at Furness General. That is the driving force behind the proposed changes at WCH. There is a genuine wish to improve the service and a part of the concern is the less straight forward cases which could be better handled in a larger hospital. That is the dilema. The Labour leaflet is strictly accurate. Babies will die - if some transformation and reorganisation of the service is not undertaken then definitely babies will die as they are doing at present.
I am surprised the Labour candidate is allowed to comment in such an unguarded way. There will be terms in her employment contract which seek to discourage unbalanced comment in the media.
Finally, I get the impression that some of those who have ventured up to Copeland have only visited a small part of the constituency. If Whitehaven Town doesn't return Labour ...
But there is a lot of rural hinterland both to the north east and the east and south of the town.
Con GAIN remains my view.
Too many hospital services are “unsafe” and politicians must not “collude” to keep them open because they fear controversy over closures, a leading think tank has said.
NHS authorities are drawing up radical plans to reorganise services in a bid to save £22bn and cope with rising demand from an ageing population. Draft plans suggest this could result in the closure of 24 Accident & Emergency departments, with swingeing bed cuts.
The King’s Fund today urged politicians to back radical changes as “the best hope” of achieving essential reforms.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/21/politicians-must-not-collude-stop-closures-unsafe-hospital-services
'That we are even discussing potential losses is down to awful corbyn ' will be as bad as it gets in these seats, even though he us awful.
Apart from anything else, local labour people in despair will know another ousting opportunity will come, but do they want to be stuck with a Tory mp until then?
There has been headline after headline about the suspected and projected woes of the NHS. Today's is the result of a BBC 'analysis'.
I like the BBC. I get value from the licence fee. But this is getting faintly ridiculous. Is there really no other news going on in the country?
No, I didn't visit the inland hinterland beyond Frizington, though I did head all the way up the A595 so took in quite a lot of the constituency to the south. (I also didn't make it as far as Whitehaven, though my wife did). However, I did speak to quite a lot of people, both in the campaign team and 'real' people with votes. I agree that Con gain remains a realistic possibility but I'd stick by my view that 3/1 for the Labour double is very generous, and that the question for Labour is about getting its vote out. If it can, it should win. But can it?
The aim was never to displace the Conservatives as the opposition to Labour. It was to replace Labour as the opposition to the Conservatives. Job done.
Oh, and as far as ‘Cumbria’ is concerned, wasn’t it originally part of the Kingdom of Strathclyde, a Brythonic-speaking country? Doesn’t ‘Cumbria’ come from the same root as ‘Cymru’?
With a beautiful, sleepy black Cockapoo pup curled on my lap after his unbroken and dry night's sleep I am eminently relaxed about this by election.
Con gain Copeland....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11338695/Ed-Miliband-said-he-wanted-to-weaponise-NHS-in-secret-meeting-with-BBC-executives.html
Sad.
On a related note, similarly attractive odds on SPIN for the Stoke by election are attractive for Lib Dems and Tories - little downside risk rewarding possible 2nd places.... DYOR.
Isn’t ANC showing it’s age, and splits are appearing?
And finally, I didn’t put a time frame on anything!
It seems to me that although the traditional loyalty of many voters to Labour is dissolving, it is not melting away fast enough to hand victory to the Conservatives. If Nuttall flops on Thursday, he rather than Corbyn could well be the first victim of Stoke.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/02/can-the-conservatives-win-in-stoke.html
If everyone ignored Milo he'd go away, he's only successful because he makes a certain group of liberals go completely nuts every time he opens his mouth!
(1) Demographics: Unionist sentiment in Scotland is disproportionately concentrated amongst older voters. Crudely, as they die off, will the following generation trend towards the status quo to take their places?
(2) Scotland is not, of course, the only player in this situation. The English nationalist response to asymmetric devolution has barely begun. How far might it go?
I believe Tories weren't favourites to win 2015 GE, even at midnight. Remain was still favourite at midnight on 23rd June. I think betters have got it wrong. It will be 2 Labour holds. I've been wrong before.
But for GE2020, it is the swing that counts, not who wins. if Tories can get a swing, however small versus Labour, then that is a success. Swing the other way, and Tories will know 2020 not yet in the bag.
There will be a swing towards Libs from Lab, no question. There will be a swing towards Lib from Tories. But, it is the Tory/Lab swing that matters, as only thse two can win the 2020 election...unless the world changes fundamentally.
There's a niche for a Russell Brand for spotty virgin white supremacists, it seems. That doesn't surprise me much, though it is a little sad.
and of course, the real treat is that left wing SNP have stolen Labour votes and guaranteed a Tory Govt. We're loving the SNP.
Population of Sweden reached 10 million a few weeks ago:
http://www.thelocal.se/20170120/swedens-population-reaches-historic-ten-million-milestone
Interesting IMO because it was hardly changing (relatively speaking) at between 8-9 million for about 30 years between 1970 and 2000.
I think this is basically the point that Plato has been trying to regale us with, Trump is just £350m writ large. Say something outrageous or at least highly implausible and get the right-on press doing all your publicity for you as they rant about it, weather the initial fall out and reap the long term rewards of all the free publicity. Sure Trump will be very unpopular, like Farage is very unpopular, but Farage got what he wanted...
https://www.google.be/amp/amp.timeinc.net/time/4676423/milo-yiannopoulos-cpac-2017-invitation-invite-rescinded/?source=dam
A basic question when reading a poll: Does it include or exclude the 45% of adult Americans who didn’t cast a vote? https://t.co/wqgK054e95 https://t.co/JT0CptZwpm
Anyway, a dream scenario would be a UKIP win in Stoke and swing but loss for the Tories in Copeland...just to keep Jezza in place. Could a Lib win?
Thanks, Andy, your info and analysis are always welcome.
As noted by @AlsoIndigo, it's a classic case of the Streisand Effect. Most people hadn't heard of Milo until Twitter banned him.
https://www.google.be/amp/amp.timeinc.net/time/4676423/milo-yiannopoulos-cpac-2017-invitation-invite-rescinded/?source=dam
What did for Milo and his book was not the liberal left, but the market. Paedophilia is not a great look for an author targeting conservative readers. Capitalism works.
https://twitter.com/unite2017/status/833806231131320320
Where are all these cats coming from? Is this the dark secret that connects Plato to the Donald? Where is investigative journalism when you need it?
And why is there a national question mark shortage?
I'm not one of Milo's supporters, I think he's an idiot but can amusingly see how he's becoming the latest hate figure for the liberal left in America - who should really be focussing their efforts on the politicians in power, rather than some jumped up anti-Russell Brand, as @AlistairMeeks described him.
It's unfortunate, but it's not fashionable. If only the kids with their protruding stomach and sores had the energy to travel the few thousand miles to Calais and demonstrate.
You can't expect the luvvies to go all the way to Africa to virtue-signal, surely? Not when the cameras are just across the Channel. Don't these dead and dying children know anything?
Interesting article, Mr. Herdson. I don't live in the middle of nowhere (I could walk to Leeds and back in a day, and have time to buy some books and have dinner) but as a child often went on holiday to Wales or Devon. I agree entirely with your suggestion that sometimes people in big cities (particularly London, where such decisions tend to be made) simply don't get the infrastructure differences in rural areas.
Whilst I do think there's a case for centralising many health services, A&E and maternity wards would be the exception to this because of the critical time factor.
But I see that you are devoid of virtue to signal, so are signalling the darkness of your soul instead.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fe40ded4-f7af-11e6-a6f0-cb4e831c1cc0
The only way he will go away is by directly confronting his views and those of his supporters; agreeing with them when they have a point, and arguing strongly when he does not. Show he is wrong, as he mostly is (at least IMV).
Fortunately, he's a controversialist, and not a very good one at that. He'll burn a bright brown for a while and then fizzle out into the obscurity that he belongs, with only a few acolytes remaining around him. His own longing for fame via controversy will be his undoing.
Basically: I'm not sure he's intelligent enough to do it right.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/02/19/exclusive-ted-malloch-the-fts-attempt-at-my-political-assassination/
"...Second, a week ago I sent an opinion editorial, an op-ed, to the Financial Times through a trusted friendly source on the ‘New US View on European Integration’. It was a candid piece that was overtly critical of the EU and its anti-Americanism. It went up to their top editors and I got a call from a, Peggy Hollinger, a senior editor, telling me they would not under any circumstances print it because it was contrary to their pro-EU policy.
I asked about contrary views or diversity of opinion. They did not like that and she went on to lecture me, a professor, for too many minutes on why Brexit is so bad and it needs to be reversed and is a huge mistake and smart people are against it and that the EU is the most perfect thing ever invented and how could anyone, let alone an American, possibly criticize it. She was excited, venting and irrational, so I said, thank you and I would find an alternative publication to print my piece. So be it, I thought.
Less than two days later and after the EU made demarches against my candidacy to the U.S. State Department (without avail) and a letter was circulated around the EU Parliament, calling me “malevolent” and saying I should be made, Persona Non Grata, PNG, a diplomatic phrase for not permitted in a country, I was sent a text and then received I believe seven phone calls from a fellow named, Henry Mance, a media writer, whatever that is, for the FT, demanding that I answer a series of questions about my background, immediately...
Unless every element of Tory party have unsubscribed me (possible), I feel it might be over.
I will send a private message to facebookers and see what they say.
Famine follows in the wake of war, as so often. South Sudan is a beautiful country according to a friend of mine who goes there regularly on medical missionary work. The conflict between the warlords there followed on from the conflict with the Muslim government prior to succession.