It would have been even more interesting/revealing if the immigration question had been broken down into 'immigration from Europe' and immigration from elsewhere”.
I suspect, only suspect, mind that in some areas ...... not East Anglia, I would agree ....... the answers could have been different.
Copeland byelection: Corbyn proving 'barrier' in Sellafield seat
Vox pop from Stoke:
Alan: “We definitely vote UKIP. I voted Labour all my life. Never again. Corbyn’s the main reason. I think Theresa May’s doing a good job. She’s certainly the best leader in the Commons at the moment. I’ve never voted Tory.”
Ann: “I would. I believe she’ll do what she said.”
Alan: “I’d find it very difficult to vote for the Tories.”
Ann: “Labour isn’t the party it was. And Tony Blair, how he dares to show his face, I don’t know. This city has always been Labour, but I don’t think we are now.”
Maybe relying too much on personal feeling, but I think Lab>Con is a very hard jump for people/communities who have been tribal Labour all their life
I'm sure it is very difficult - but when there's a 113 point gap in net favourability ratings between the two leaders among the over-65s some people may be tempted to change the habits of a lifetime.....
For many ingrained voters, it will be too much of a jump. But actively supporting a Con candidate and accepting the risk of passively letting one in are two different things. Lab switches to UKIP, LD, others or abstentions are the bigger risks.
(Even now, in the mid- to high-teens Con poll leads, the direct Lab-Con swing is small; the effective swing is driven mainly by third-party effects and lesser certainty to vote among 2015 Lab voters).
I simply can't find an example of a governing party overcoming a lead of 6.5% in by-election conditions.
Labour gained Darlington in 1983, just before going down to a massive defeat, so why should they lost Copeland?
The odds are quite astounding !
Unfortunately, Paddy Power wouldn't take a double, but I just got 9/4 on Labour holding Copeland, which seem like excellent odds to me. Many thanks to David and Alistair Meeks for their thoughts.
Copeland byelection: Corbyn proving 'barrier' in Sellafield seat
Vox pop from Stoke:
Alan: “We definitely vote UKIP. I voted Labour all my life. Never again. Corbyn’s the main reason. I think Theresa May’s doing a good job. She’s certainly the best leader in the Commons at the moment. I’ve never voted Tory.”
Ann: “I would. I believe she’ll do what she said.”
Alan: “I’d find it very difficult to vote for the Tories.”
Ann: “Labour isn’t the party it was. And Tony Blair, how he dares to show his face, I don’t know. This city has always been Labour, but I don’t think we are now.”
Maybe relying too much on personal feeling, but I think Lab>Con is a very hard jump for people/communities who have been tribal Labour all their life
I'm sure it is very difficult - but when there's a 113 point gap in net favourability ratings between the two leaders among the over-65s some people may be tempted to change the habits of a lifetime.....
For many ingrained voters, it will be too much of a jump. But actively supporting a Con candidate and accepting the risk of passively letting one in are two different things. Lab switches to UKIP, LD, others or abstentions are the bigger risks.
(Even now, in the mid- to high-teens Con poll leads, the direct Lab-Con swing is small; the effective swing is driven mainly by third-party effects and lesser certainty to vote among 2015 Lab voters).
I simply can't find an example of a governing party overcoming a lead of 6.5% in by-election conditions.
Labour gained Darlington in 1983, just before going down to a massive defeat, so why should they lost Copeland?
The odds are quite astounding !
Unfortunately, Paddy Power wouldn't take a double, but I just got 9/4 on Labour holding Copeland, which seem like excellent odds to me. Many thanks to David and Alistair Meeks for their thoughts.
Maybe we've all got it wrong, you never know. But backing Labour anywhere and in any combination has seemed value street right the way through the contest.
I know it would be mind-numbingly tedious, but it's a shame that nobody bothered to record whether the HoL speeches yesterday were broadly pro- or anti-Brexit. It would interesting to see how the different party and crossbench groups break down.
French presidential odds: Macron has drifted and Le Pen shortened slightly to 2.87 (each). Fillon's odds shortened a smidge to 3.5.
I am a neophyte at this - presumably if you think Le Pen won't win then the thing to do is lay her? Unless we get six more weeks Parisienne rioting I can't see her support in Round 2 getting over the 50% - no matter what the other candidates get up to or have done in the past. (DYOR). The raid on her office may solidify her support (being spun as 'the establishment out to get her') but won't cause any significant switch towards her - and any increase in support in the polls will be met with a backlash in likelihood to vote against.
French presidential odds: Macron has drifted and Le Pen shortened slightly to 2.87 (each). Fillon's odds shortened a smidge to 3.5.
I am a neophyte at this - presumably if you think Le Pen won't win then the thing to do is lay her? Unless we get six more weeks Parisienne rioting I can't see her support in Round 2 getting over the 50% - no matter what the other candidates get up to or have done in the past. (DYOR). The raid on her office may solidify her support (being spun as 'the establishment out to get her') but won't cause any significant switch towards her - and any increase in support in the polls will be met with a backlash in likelihood to vote against.
Yep, lay Le Pen. Alot of us are already doing so.
2.87 is an astonishing opportunity if you're not yet in the market.
Maybe relying too much on personal feeling, but I think Lab>Con is a very hard jump for people/communities who have been tribal Labour all their life
I'm sure it is very difficult - but when there's a 113 point gap in net favourability ratings between the two leaders among the over-65s some people may be tempted to change the habits of a lifetime.....
For many ingrained voters, it will be too much of a jump. But actively supporting a Con candidate and accepting the risk of passively letting one in are two different things. Lab switches to UKIP, LD, others or abstentions are the bigger risks.
(Even now, in the mid- to high-teens Con poll leads, the direct Lab-Con swing is small; the effective swing is driven mainly by third-party effects and lesser certainty to vote among 2015 Lab voters).
I simply can't find an example of a governing party overcoming a lead of 6.5% in by-election conditions.
Labour gained Darlington in 1983, just before going down to a massive defeat, so why should they lost Copeland?
There are a few examples pre-WWII but they're all a bit odd (none more so than the 100% swing in Liverpool Scotland, 1929 - the Irish Nationalist (!) MP died after having been elected unopposed; Labour then won the subsequent by-election unopposed).
Likewise, there are at least two examples of parties gaining the second seat in a 2-seat constituency where they already held the first (and had scored the larger total at the preceding GE), which might be a gain in one sense but doesn't require any kind of swing to do it.
To be honest, I don't think it's worth going back before 1945 for precedents: the fluidity of the party structure and of which parties contested seats (and in what number, in the double-/triple-member seats), make comparisons too difficult. As the thread leader might indicate, I tried looking for precisely that example but gave up when I reached the early 1920s after finding too many exceptions. There no doubt will be an instance of - for example - two straight Con/Lib fights and the seat reversing to the government's advantage but I'm not sure there's any value to finding them.
(Published today), the no of reported deaths in England/Wales is 10% higher in the first 6 weeks of the year than the 5 year average. Might explain the particular struggles of the NHS this winter....
But it will make life easier for the NHS in future years. Always look on the bright side.
(Increase in government spending, in NHS speak, is treating the symptoms, not addressing the cause - which is like a cancer atrophying services.)
An excellent thread David. You make the 5/2 odds against a Labour hold in Copeland look like the political bet of the year thus far and there was I thinking I was entitled to that particular brownie point by suggesting the best value wager was the then 10/11 odds available on Labour holding Stoke Central. Of course there's still the small matter of landing these two bets!
Thanks. Just to be clear, I do think there's a reasonable chance of a Con win but I'd price it as maybe Lab 4/6, Con 5/4. Even so, that's a massive market differential.
That said, both Brexit and Trump were even more massive *well after* counting was underway.
French presidential odds: Macron has drifted and Le Pen shortened slightly to 2.87 (each). Fillon's odds shortened a smidge to 3.5.
I am a neophyte at this - presumably if you think Le Pen won't win then the thing to do is lay her? Unless we get six more weeks Parisienne rioting I can't see her support in Round 2 getting over the 50% - no matter what the other candidates get up to or have done in the past. (DYOR). The raid on her office may solidify her support (being spun as 'the establishment out to get her') but won't cause any significant switch towards her - and any increase in support in the polls will be met with a backlash in likelihood to vote against.
Yep, lay Le Pen. Alot of us are already doing so.
2.87 is an astonishing opportunity if you're not yet in the market.
Presumably the 2.87 is with a bookie so probably unable to lay at that price. Lay price for Le Pen on Betfair is 3.5.
French presidential odds: Macron has drifted and Le Pen shortened slightly to 2.87 (each). Fillon's odds shortened a smidge to 3.5.
I am a neophyte at this - presumably if you think Le Pen won't win then the thing to do is lay her? Unless we get six more weeks Parisienne rioting I can't see her support in Round 2 getting over the 50% - no matter what the other candidates get up to or have done in the past. (DYOR). The raid on her office may solidify her support (being spun as 'the establishment out to get her') but won't cause any significant switch towards her - and any increase in support in the polls will be met with a backlash in likelihood to vote against.
Yep, lay Le Pen. Alot of us are already doing so.
2.87 is an astonishing opportunity if you're not yet in the market.
Precisement, mes braves! I think her price is being held down by people who either rather fancy more disruption and are betting their preference or don't undersand French politics and the 2-round system.
I know it would be mind-numbingly tedious, but it's a shame that nobody bothered to record whether the HoL speeches yesterday were broadly pro- or anti-Brexit. It would interesting to see how the different party and crossbench groups break down.
You could probably skim Hansard in 5 or 10 minutes and come up with a rough total.
I think David is managing Tory expectations in Copeland. I have just returned from 3 days campaigning for Rebecca Hanson and I believe the Labour Party will not retain this seat. I met quite a number of traditional Labour supporters including 2 councillors who agree that Rebecca is by far the strongest of the bunch of candidates on offer and wish she was "wearing a red rosette". Probably the Tories will win but we are in a season for unexpected election outcomes and I am sure Rebecca will do a lot better than the present betting markets predict.
I think David is managing Tory expectations in Copeland. I have just returned from 3 days campaigning for Rebecca Hanson and I believe the Labour Party will not retain this seat. I met quite a number of traditional Labour supporters including 2 councillors who agree that Rebecca is by far the strongest of the bunch of candidates on offer and wish she was "wearing a red rosette". Probably the Tories will win but we are in a season for unexpected election outcomes and I am sure Rebecca will do a lot better than the present betting markets predict.
There's a first time for everything, but a Conservative gain would be unprecedented.
I know it would be mind-numbingly tedious, but it's a shame that nobody bothered to record whether the HoL speeches yesterday were broadly pro- or anti-Brexit. It would interesting to see how the different party and crossbench groups break down.
You could probably skim Hansard in 5 or 10 minutes and come up with a rough total.
French presidential odds: Macron has drifted and Le Pen shortened slightly to 2.87 (each). Fillon's odds shortened a smidge to 3.5.
I am a neophyte at this - presumably if you think Le Pen won't win then the thing to do is lay her? Unless we get six more weeks Parisienne rioting I can't see her support in Round 2 getting over the 50% - no matter what the other candidates get up to or have done in the past. (DYOR). The raid on her office may solidify her support (being spun as 'the establishment out to get her') but won't cause any significant switch towards her - and any increase in support in the polls will be met with a backlash in likelihood to vote against.
Yep, lay Le Pen. Alot of us are already doing so.
2.87 is an astonishing opportunity if you're not yet in the market.
Presumably the 2.87 is with a bookie so probably unable to lay at that price. Lay price for Le Pen on Betfair is 3.5.
Fillon is currently available to back on BF at 4
Sorry, I assume people give the lay price when they're quoting Betfair. I always do.
I know it would be mind-numbingly tedious, but it's a shame that nobody bothered to record whether the HoL speeches yesterday were broadly pro- or anti-Brexit. It would interesting to see how the different party and crossbench groups break down.
You could probably skim Hansard in 5 or 10 minutes and come up with a rough total.
I think David is managing Tory expectations in Copeland. I have just returned from 3 days campaigning for Rebecca Hanson and I believe the Labour Party will not retain this seat. I met quite a number of traditional Labour supporters including 2 councillors who agree that Rebecca is by far the strongest of the bunch of candidates on offer and wish she was "wearing a red rosette". Probably the Tories will win but we are in a season for unexpected election outcomes and I am sure Rebecca will do a lot better than the present betting markets predict.
There's a first time for everything, but a Conservative gain would be unprecedented.
A LibDem win would be a nice surprise (betting wise).
French presidential odds: Macron has drifted and Le Pen shortened slightly to 2.87 (each). Fillon's odds shortened a smidge to 3.5.
I am a neophyte at this - presumably if you think Le Pen won't win then the thing to do is lay her? Unless we get six more weeks Parisienne rioting I can't see her support in Round 2 getting over the 50% - no matter what the other candidates get up to or have done in the past. (DYOR). The raid on her office may solidify her support (being spun as 'the establishment out to get her') but won't cause any significant switch towards her - and any increase in support in the polls will be met with a backlash in likelihood to vote against.
Yep, lay Le Pen. Alot of us are already doing so.
2.87 is an astonishing opportunity if you're not yet in the market.
Presumably the 2.87 is with a bookie so probably unable to lay at that price. Lay price for Le Pen on Betfair is 3.5.
French presidential odds: Macron has drifted and Le Pen shortened slightly to 2.87 (each). Fillon's odds shortened a smidge to 3.5.
I am a neophyte at this - presumably if you think Le Pen won't win then the thing to do is lay her? Unless we get six more weeks Parisienne rioting I can't see her support in Round 2 getting over the 50% - no matter what the other candidates get up to or have done in the past. (DYOR). The raid on her office may solidify her support (being spun as 'the establishment out to get her') but won't cause any significant switch towards her - and any increase in support in the polls will be met with a backlash in likelihood to vote against.
Yep, lay Le Pen. Alot of us are already doing so.
2.87 is an astonishing opportunity if you're not yet in the market.
Presumably the 2.87 is with a bookie so probably unable to lay at that price. Lay price for Le Pen on Betfair is 3.5.
Fillon is currently available to back on BF at 4
Theres 8k to lay at 3.5 so lots of free money there. Assuming she wins the first round are we better waiting to lay at a shorter price then?
I think David is managing Tory expectations in Copeland. I have just returned from 3 days campaigning for Rebecca Hanson and I believe the Labour Party will not retain this seat. I met quite a number of traditional Labour supporters including 2 councillors who agree that Rebecca is by far the strongest of the bunch of candidates on offer and wish she was "wearing a red rosette". Probably the Tories will win but we are in a season for unexpected election outcomes and I am sure Rebecca will do a lot better than the present betting markets predict.
There's a first time for everything, but a Conservative gain would be unprecedented.
A LibDem win would be a nice surprise (betting wise).
I think David is managing Tory expectations in Copeland. I have just returned from 3 days campaigning for Rebecca Hanson and I believe the Labour Party will not retain this seat. I met quite a number of traditional Labour supporters including 2 councillors who agree that Rebecca is by far the strongest of the bunch of candidates on offer and wish she was "wearing a red rosette". Probably the Tories will win but we are in a season for unexpected election outcomes and I am sure Rebecca will do a lot better than the present betting markets predict.
No, I'm not managing expectations. Three reasons.
1. I like to protect my reputation, such as it is, for analysis. Making bad predictions, for whatever reason, doesn't do much for that reputation. On a betting site, it does even more damage.
2. If I was going to manage expectations, it would be to set the Tory bar higher, so as to make it easier for Corbyn to appear to have a good night.
3. I doubt if my expectations / predictions have any meaningful impact in the wider world, so misleading people here would simply cause people on PB to (a) mistrust what I was saying, and/or (b) lose money - neither of which I want and even were I trying to spin, both of which would be too high a price.
French presidential odds: Macron has drifted and Le Pen shortened slightly to 2.87 (each). Fillon's odds shortened a smidge to 3.5.
I am a neophyte at this - presumably if you think Le Pen won't win then the thing to do is lay her? Unless we get six more weeks Parisienne rioting I can't see her support in Round 2 getting over the 50% - no matter what the other candidates get up to or have done in the past. (DYOR). The raid on her office may solidify her support (being spun as 'the establishment out to get her') but won't cause any significant switch towards her - and any increase in support in the polls will be met with a backlash in likelihood to vote against.
Yep, lay Le Pen. Alot of us are already doing so.
2.87 is an astonishing opportunity if you're not yet in the market.
Presumably the 2.87 is with a bookie so probably unable to lay at that price. Lay price for Le Pen on Betfair is 3.5.
French presidential odds: Macron has drifted and Le Pen shortened slightly to 2.87 (each). Fillon's odds shortened a smidge to 3.5.
I am a neophyte at this - presumably if you think Le Pen won't win then the thing to do is lay her? Unless we get six more weeks Parisienne rioting I can't see her support in Round 2 getting over the 50% - no matter what the other candidates get up to or have done in the past. (DYOR). The raid on her office may solidify her support (being spun as 'the establishment out to get her') but won't cause any significant switch towards her - and any increase in support in the polls will be met with a backlash in likelihood to vote against.
Yep, lay Le Pen. Alot of us are already doing so.
2.87 is an astonishing opportunity if you're not yet in the market.
Presumably the 2.87 is with a bookie so probably unable to lay at that price. Lay price for Le Pen on Betfair is 3.5.
Fillon is currently available to back on BF at 4
Theres 8k to lay at 3.5 so lots of free money there. Assuming she wins the first round are we better waiting to lay at a shorter price then?
Theresa May doesn't seem to scare the horses. The class thing that was up front under Cameron and Osborne has gone. She is - ahem - detoffifyng the Tory party. She was kinda Remain, but is getting on with implementing the Leave decision of the people.
Up to a point I think that's true, and I've reported from the canvas trail that she's getting som credit even from lefty voters. They feel she's got the right personality - sober, even dull - for troubled times. Up to a point (leaving policy aside) I think that too - certainly prefer her style to any recent Tory leader.
But a certain degree of "but is she actually doing anything useful?" is starting to creep in. I think that having the right manner only takes you so far, and some favourable people are starting to wonder if the cautious manner overlays ineffectiveness in practice.
I think David is managing Tory expectations in Copeland. I have just returned from 3 days campaigning for Rebecca Hanson and I believe the Labour Party will not retain this seat. I met quite a number of traditional Labour supporters including 2 councillors who agree that Rebecca is by far the strongest of the bunch of candidates on offer and wish she was "wearing a red rosette". Probably the Tories will win but we are in a season for unexpected election outcomes and I am sure Rebecca will do a lot better than the present betting markets predict.
There's a first time for everything, but a Conservative gain would be unprecedented.
There's a lot of unprecedented stuff going on at the moment. Tory victory in Copeland looks highly likely to me at the moment.
My feeling is everyone is being far too conservative in their analysis of the political landscape, we are probably going to see shifts in support similar to post-ref Scotland. Whatever you thought you knew, forget it.
Police fire at driver as he speeds the wrong way down a motorway towards Barcelona in stolen truck carrying gas cylinders
Armed Spanish police have arrested a Swedish driver after he was seen speeding the wrong way down a motorway towards Barcelona in a stolen truck carrying gas cylinders.
The vehicle, carrying dozens of butane canisters, rammed several cars before it was finally stopped on one of the road's exits.
A Swedish identified as Joakim Robin Berggren has reportedly been arrested and Spain's counter-terror unit has launched an investigation into the incident.
Another decentish value bet in the Copeland by-election appears to centre on Labour's share of the vote, where both Laddies and Betfred go 5/4 on it being between 30% - 40% At the 2015 GE, Labour secured a 42.3% share, with the Tories second on 35.8%. I don't think anyone on either side of the divide is seriously suggesting that Labour will increase its share and therefore 40% is probably its potential ceiling. Equally it would be a devastating result for them were their share to slip below 30% and for the reasons David H has set out this appears unlikely. So somewhere in between looks likely to be the outcome - a word of warning though - turnout will be way below that seen at the GE, perhaps only half that level and this factor could significantly distort the division of the votes between the parties. As ever, DYOR.
Mr. Herdson, different kettle of monkeys, but posting tips publicly (as well as being mutually beneficial when many people do it) is good for keeping one honest. Having to account for when you screw things up helps keep a level head.
Mr. G, to be fair, I was torn between laying to be level or laying to be all green before. I think Macron's drifting, so it does make sense.
If I were all green on every market I certainly wouldn't complain.
Theres 8k to lay at 3.5 so lots of free money there. Assuming she wins the first round are we better waiting to lay at a shorter price then?
That's a very interesting question. Logically, you'd expect the odds to shorten once any remaining uncertainty about the first round has been resolved, but I think there might be a political factor which pushes the other way; at the moment, we are relying on hypothetical polling questions for the second round ("If the candidates are Le Pen and Macron, whom would you vote for?"). I believe that this is likely to underestimate the real anti-Le Pen vote, because people who dislike Macron or Fillon will be reluctant at the moment to express any degree of support for them. However, when it comes to the real choice and their more favoured candidates have been eliminated, I think it's likely that more people will hold their noses and shift to the not-Le-Pen candidate.
If my hunch is right, the polling, and therefore the odds, could shift away from Le Pen once the first round is announced. That would suggest that laying Le Pen immediately after the first-round results are announced but before the first opinion polls are out might be good timing.
French presidential odds: Macron has drifted and Le Pen shortened slightly to 2.87 (each). Fillon's odds shortened a smidge to 3.5.
I am a neophyte at this - presumably if you think Le Pen won't win then the thing to do is lay her? Unless we get six more weeks Parisienne rioting I can't see her support in Round 2 getting over the 50% - no matter what the other candidates get up to or have done in the past. (DYOR). The raid on her office may solidify her support (being spun as 'the establishment out to get her') but won't cause any significant switch towards her - and any increase in support in the polls will be met with a backlash in likelihood to vote against.
Yep, lay Le Pen. Alot of us are already doing so.
2.87 is an astonishing opportunity if you're not yet in the market.
Presumably the 2.87 is with a bookie so probably unable to lay at that price. Lay price for Le Pen on Betfair is 3.5.
French presidential odds: Macron has drifted and Le Pen shortened slightly to 2.87 (each). Fillon's odds shortened a smidge to 3.5.
I am a neophyte at this - presumably if you think Le Pen won't win then the thing to do is lay her? Unless we get six more weeks Parisienne rioting I can't see her support in Round 2 getting over the 50% - no matter what the other candidates get up to or have done in the past. (DYOR). The raid on her office may solidify her support (being spun as 'the establishment out to get her') but won't cause any significant switch towards her - and any increase in support in the polls will be met with a backlash in likelihood to vote against.
Yep, lay Le Pen. Alot of us are already doing so.
2.87 is an astonishing opportunity if you're not yet in the market.
Presumably the 2.87 is with a bookie so probably unable to lay at that price. Lay price for Le Pen on Betfair is 3.5.
Fillon is currently available to back on BF at 4
Theres 8k to lay at 3.5 so lots of free money there. Assuming she wins the first round are we better waiting to lay at a shorter price then?
Depends on the vote %s in the first round.
If she wins 31 - 19 - 19 then she'll go odds on.
If it is 27 - 23 I'd expect a drift.
Yeah I guess so although I could see a market overreaction to her actually winning as it will be all over the MSM etc etc. Probably just being greedy.
French presidential odds: Macron has drifted and Le Pen shortened slightly to 2.87 (each). Fillon's odds shortened a smidge to 3.5.
I am a neophyte at this - presumably if you think Le Pen won't win then the thing to do is lay her? Unless we get six more weeks Parisienne rioting I can't see her support in Round 2 getting over the 50% - no matter what the other candidates get up to or have done in the past. (DYOR). The raid on her office may solidify her support (being spun as 'the establishment out to get her') but won't cause any significant switch towards her - and any increase in support in the polls will be met with a backlash in likelihood to vote against.
Yep, lay Le Pen. Alot of us are already doing so.
2.87 is an astonishing opportunity if you're not yet in the market.
Just remember to tune in as the votes are counted and be prepared to switch. People who went to bed at midnight UK time (or even 1.00am) lost thousands.
Theresa May doesn't seem to scare the horses. The class thing that was up front under Cameron and Osborne has gone. She is - ahem - detoffifyng the Tory party. She was kinda Remain, but is getting on with implementing the Leave decision of the people.
Up to a point I think that's true, and I've reported from the canvas trail that she's getting som credit even from lefty voters. They feel she's got the right personality - sober, even dull - for troubled times. Up to a point (leaving policy aside) I think that too - certainly prefer her style to any recent Tory leader.
But a certain degree of "but is she actually doing anything useful?" is starting to creep in. I think that having the right manner only takes you so far, and some favourable people are starting to wonder if the cautious manner overlays ineffectiveness in practice.
Cautious manner? Like being the first PM to 'invade' the House of Lords yesterday?
Pushing for A50 by March?
Saying that we will have hard Brexit if the EU doesn't play ball?
Inviting POTUS against opposition?
If this is cautious, let's hope she never gets adventurous...
I thought you guys would find this article I lifted from the Express & Star amusing -
"THIS is what His Serene Magnificence Tony Blair says about Britain voting to leave the EU: “The people voted without knowledge of the true terms of Brexit. As these terms become clear, it is their right to change their mind.” Now, apply those same words to the 1975 referendum when Britain voted to stay in the Common Market. Back then, we certainly voted without knowledge of the true terms. We thought we were joining a free-trade area but were gradually swallowed into an undemocratic and unaccountable superstate. We had the right to change our mind and in last year's referendum we did so. The difference between the 1975 and 2016 referendums is that in 1975 we had no idea what the EU would become. Now we know exactly what it's about. So thanks for the advice, Tony, now shove off. Aren't you supposed to be bringing peace to the Middle East or something?"
Police fire at driver as he speeds the wrong way down a motorway towards Barcelona in stolen truck carrying gas cylinders
Armed Spanish police have arrested a Swedish driver after he was seen speeding the wrong way down a motorway towards Barcelona in a stolen truck carrying gas cylinders.
The vehicle, carrying dozens of butane canisters, rammed several cars before it was finally stopped on one of the road's exits.
A Swedish identified as Joakim Robin Berggren has reportedly been arrested and Spain's counter-terror unit has launched an investigation into the incident.
Sounds like a butano truck. There are loads of these in Spain. They deliver cannisters and refills to flats that are not connected to the mains gas supplies. That's what we had when we lived there. It could be terrorist-related, but I really wouldn't rush to conclusions on this one.
Theresa May doesn't seem to scare the horses. The class thing that was up front under Cameron and Osborne has gone. She is - ahem - detoffifyng the Tory party. She was kinda Remain, but is getting on with implementing the Leave decision of the people.
Up to a point I think that's true, and I've reported from the canvas trail that she's getting som credit even from lefty voters. They feel she's got the right personality - sober, even dull - for troubled times. Up to a point (leaving policy aside) I think that too - certainly prefer her style to any recent Tory leader.
But a certain degree of "but is she actually doing anything useful?" is starting to creep in. I think that having the right manner only takes you so far, and some favourable people are starting to wonder if the cautious manner overlays ineffectiveness in practice.
Cautious manner? Like being the first PM to 'invade' the House of Lords yesterday?
Pushing for A50 by March?
Saying that we will have hard Brexit if the EU doesn't play ball?
Inviting POTUS against opposition?
If this is cautious, let's hope she never gets adventurous...
To be fair the opposition to Trumps visit didn’t really show itself until after she’d asked him. Some grumblings, but not the swell. Of course there were a lot of things he hadn’t done then!
Police fire at driver as he speeds the wrong way down a motorway towards Barcelona in stolen truck carrying gas cylinders
Armed Spanish police have arrested a Swedish driver after he was seen speeding the wrong way down a motorway towards Barcelona in a stolen truck carrying gas cylinders.
The vehicle, carrying dozens of butane canisters, rammed several cars before it was finally stopped on one of the road's exits.
A Swedish identified as Joakim Robin Berggren has reportedly been arrested and Spain's counter-terror unit has launched an investigation into the incident.
Sounds like a butano truck. There are loads of these in Spain. They deliver cannisters and refills to flats that are not connected to the mains gas supplies. That's what we had when we lived there. It could be terrorist-related, but I really wouldn't rush to conclusions on this one.
Hence why I said "no jumping to conclusions". Just linking to what is the lead story across a number of media sites e.g. Telegraph.
Re my previous post: I'd forgotten that opinion polls are banned in France in the last week. So we'll be flying largely blind after the first-round results come in.
I think David is managing Tory expectations in Copeland. I have just returned from 3 days campaigning for Rebecca Hanson and I believe the Labour Party will not retain this seat. I met quite a number of traditional Labour supporters including 2 councillors who agree that Rebecca is by far the strongest of the bunch of candidates on offer and wish she was "wearing a red rosette". Probably the Tories will win but we are in a season for unexpected election outcomes and I am sure Rebecca will do a lot better than the present betting markets predict.
There's a first time for everything, but a Conservative gain would be unprecedented.
There's a lot of unprecedented stuff going on at the moment. Tory victory in Copeland looks highly likely to me at the moment.
My feeling is everyone is being far too conservative in their analysis of the political landscape, we are probably going to see shifts in support similar to post-ref Scotland. Whatever you thought you knew, forget it.
Scottish By-elections 2013-14
Aberdeen Donside, Dunfermline and Cowdenbeath
All swings against the Holyrood government.
A swing toward SNP in westminster Inverclyde, but the SNP is NOT the Westminster government.
Looking at Scotland emphasises the point that the Tories should not be favourites in Copeland.
Re my previous post: I'd forgotten that opinion polls are banned in France in the last week. So we'll be flying largely blind after the first-round results come in.
Not even updates on the local food prices like in Spain?
Police fire at driver as he speeds the wrong way down a motorway towards Barcelona in stolen truck carrying gas cylinders
Armed Spanish police have arrested a Swedish driver after he was seen speeding the wrong way down a motorway towards Barcelona in a stolen truck carrying gas cylinders.
The vehicle, carrying dozens of butane canisters, rammed several cars before it was finally stopped on one of the road's exits.
A Swedish identified as Joakim Robin Berggren has reportedly been arrested and Spain's counter-terror unit has launched an investigation into the incident.
Sounds like a butano truck. There are loads of these in Spain. They deliver cannisters and refills to flats that are not connected to the mains gas supplies. That's what we had when we lived there. It could be terrorist-related, but I really wouldn't rush to conclusions on this one.
Re my previous post: I'd forgotten that opinion polls are banned in France in the last week. So we'll be flying largely blind after the first-round results come in.
But we will have a solid set of results to compare actual results with. We should then be able to extrapolate to the second round...
I think David is managing Tory expectations in Copeland. I have just returned from 3 days campaigning for Rebecca Hanson and I believe the Labour Party will not retain this seat. I met quite a number of traditional Labour supporters including 2 councillors who agree that Rebecca is by far the strongest of the bunch of candidates on offer and wish she was "wearing a red rosette". Probably the Tories will win but we are in a season for unexpected election outcomes and I am sure Rebecca will do a lot better than the present betting markets predict.
No, I'm not managing expectations. Three reasons.
1. I like to protect my reputation, such as it is, for analysis. Making bad predictions, for whatever reason, doesn't do much for that reputation. On a betting site, it does even more damage.
2. If I was going to manage expectations, it would be to set the Tory bar higher, so as to make it easier for Corbyn to appear to have a good night.
3. I doubt if my expectations / predictions have any meaningful impact in the wider world, so misleading people here would simply cause people on PB to (a) mistrust what I was saying, and/or (b) lose money - neither of which I want and even were I trying to spin, both of which would be too high a price.
Sorry if my choice of words was incorrect as I certainly do not want to cast aspersions on your integrity. On Friday we shall see who has made the most accurate prediction.
Theresa May doesn't seem to scare the horses. The class thing that was up front under Cameron and Osborne has gone. She is - ahem - detoffifyng the Tory party. She was kinda Remain, but is getting on with implementing the Leave decision of the people.
Up to a point I think that's true, and I've reported from the canvas trail that she's getting som credit even from lefty voters. They feel she's got the right personality - sober, even dull - for troubled times. Up to a point (leaving policy aside) I think that too - certainly prefer her style to any recent Tory leader.
But a certain degree of "but is she actually doing anything useful?" is starting to creep in. I think that having the right manner only takes you so far, and some favourable people are starting to wonder if the cautious manner overlays ineffectiveness in practice.
Cautious manner? Like being the first PM to 'invade' the House of Lords yesterday?
Pushing for A50 by March?
Saying that we will have hard Brexit if the EU doesn't play ball?
Inviting POTUS against opposition?
If this is cautious, let's hope she never gets adventurous...
Going to the House of Lords for a photo opportunity is hardly daring!
Re my previous post: I'd forgotten that opinion polls are banned in France in the last week. So we'll be flying largely blind after the first-round results come in.
Not even updates on the local food prices like in Spain?
IIRC, last time there were some polls published in Belgium to get round the rules.
I wonder what a par score for Le Pen to retain her 5-2 odds would be ?
28.5 % perhaps ?
Yes, around that level I would say. Should she score say 30% - 32% of the vote or more, then her odds would surely shorten considerably.
It is the head to head polling between her and her nearest challengers that will affect her odds more. Fillon was generally around 63-37 about a month ago, this has now tightened to 56-44. Macron was 65-35 and this morning's Opinionway poll now puts it at 58-42.
Edit. Sorry, I now see you are referring to the odds after the first round results are known
Police fire at driver as he speeds the wrong way down a motorway towards Barcelona in stolen truck carrying gas cylinders
Armed Spanish police have arrested a Swedish driver after he was seen speeding the wrong way down a motorway towards Barcelona in a stolen truck carrying gas cylinders.
The vehicle, carrying dozens of butane canisters, rammed several cars before it was finally stopped on one of the road's exits.
A Swedish identified as Joakim Robin Berggren has reportedly been arrested and Spain's counter-terror unit has launched an investigation into the incident.
Sounds like a butano truck. There are loads of these in Spain. They deliver cannisters and refills to flats that are not connected to the mains gas supplies. That's what we had when we lived there. It could be terrorist-related, but I really wouldn't rush to conclusions on this one.
Hence why I said "no jumping to conclusions". Just linking to what is the lead story across a number of media sites e.g. Telegraph.
But we will have a solid set of results to compare actual results with. We should then be able to extrapolate to the second round...
It's quite a hard extrapolation, though. We're going to have to guess how many 1st round Macron/Fillon/Hamon/etc voters are going to stay at home or vote for Le Pen rather than for whichever not-Le-Pen candidate is available.
But we will have a solid set of results to compare actual results with. We should then be able to extrapolate to the second round...
It's quite a hard extrapolation, though. We're going to have to guess how many 1st round Macron/Fillon/Hamon/etc voters are going to stay at home or vote for Le Pen rather than for whichever not-Le-Pen candidate is available.
Aye, but we'll know how accurate the first round polling was at that point. If Le Pen or Fillon or Macron outperforms we can extrapolate to the 2nd round...
French presidential odds: Macron has drifted and Le Pen shortened slightly to 2.87 (each). Fillon's odds shortened a smidge to 3.5.
I am a neophyte at this - presumably if you think Le Pen won't win then the thing to do is lay her? Unless we get six more weeks Parisienne rioting I can't see her support in Round 2 getting over the 50% - no matter what the other candidates get up to or have done in the past. (DYOR). The raid on her office may solidify her support (being spun as 'the establishment out to get her') but won't cause any significant switch towards her - and any increase in support in the polls will be met with a backlash in likelihood to vote against.
Yep, lay Le Pen. Alot of us are already doing so.
2.87 is an astonishing opportunity if you're not yet in the market.
I find the whole Le Pen phenomenom fascinating - it's upside down Brexit on age profile
I think David is managing Tory expectations in Copeland. I have just returned from 3 days campaigning for Rebecca Hanson and I believe the Labour Party will not retain this seat. I met quite a number of traditional Labour supporters including 2 councillors who agree that Rebecca is by far the strongest of the bunch of candidates on offer and wish she was "wearing a red rosette". Probably the Tories will win but we are in a season for unexpected election outcomes and I am sure Rebecca will do a lot better than the present betting markets predict.
There's a first time for everything, but a Conservative gain would be unprecedented.
There's a lot of unprecedented stuff going on at the moment. Tory victory in Copeland looks highly likely to me at the moment.
My feeling is everyone is being far too conservative in their analysis of the political landscape, we are probably going to see shifts in support similar to post-ref Scotland. Whatever you thought you knew, forget it.
Scottish By-elections 2013-14
Aberdeen Donside, Dunfermline and Cowdenbeath
All swings against the Holyrood government.
A swing toward SNP in westminster Inverclyde, but the SNP is NOT the Westminster government.
Looking at Scotland emphasises the point that the Tories should not be favourites in Copeland.
Not interested in pre-referendum Scottish by-elections, it's about what happened afterwards.
I think David is managing Tory expectations in Copeland. I have just returned from 3 days campaigning for Rebecca Hanson and I believe the Labour Party will not retain this seat. I met quite a number of traditional Labour supporters including 2 councillors who agree that Rebecca is by far the strongest of the bunch of candidates on offer and wish she was "wearing a red rosette". Probably the Tories will win but we are in a season for unexpected election outcomes and I am sure Rebecca will do a lot better than the present betting markets predict.
There's a first time for everything, but a Conservative gain would be unprecedented.
There's a lot of unprecedented stuff going on at the moment. Tory victory in Copeland looks highly likely to me at the moment.
My feeling is everyone is being far too conservative in their analysis of the political landscape, we are probably going to see shifts in support similar to post-ref Scotland. Whatever you thought you knew, forget it.
Scottish By-elections 2013-14
Aberdeen Donside, Dunfermline and Cowdenbeath
All swings against the Holyrood government.
A swing toward SNP in westminster Inverclyde, but the SNP is NOT the Westminster government.
Looking at Scotland emphasises the point that the Tories should not be favourites in Copeland.
Not interested in pre-referendum Scottish by-elections, it's about what happened afterwards.
No datapoints for that unfortunately. The SNP more or less stood still from the 2011 to the 2016 Holyrood elections though.
Re my previous post: I'd forgotten that opinion polls are banned in France in the last week. So we'll be flying largely blind after the first-round results come in.
I assume it is not polling which is banned but publishing their results.
Private polls still available to hedge funds for example.
Correction to my correction: France no longer bans opinion polls for the entire week before the election, it is now just a 24-hour ban. So we should get some final head-to-head polls after the first round results have been announced.
@RacingPost: BREAKING NEWS: Timico Gold Cup favourite Thistlecrack has been ruled of for the remainder of the season with a slight tendon tear.
Bugger
Did you back him antepost ?
With Sacre retired, Thistlecrack injured and Vautour sadly gone must say Chelters is looking not as good as last year. Coneygree out of form too & Annie Power injured. Sheesh.
Mr. Pulpstar, they're now 5 to be under 20% in Stoke, down from 9, when Dr. Foxinsox tipped them. Hedging possible there too, probably (the next 10% bands are short odds, just over evens). If you back at four times and three and a half times the original stake, then it's possible to be covered for all percentages under 40%, I think (for UKIP in Stoke).
Not sure I'll bother, but it's there, if people want to.
Correction to my correction: France no longer bans opinion polls for the entire week before the election, it is now just a 24-hour ban. So we should get some final head-to-head polls after the first round results have been announced.
Looks like UK government borrowing should turn out around £60bn for the full financial after today, roughly half way between what Osborne predicted and what Hammond predicted. Given that growth is likely to be pushed up a tad for Q4 and the recession predicted after Brexit did not occur that is mildly disappointing in reality although it is likely to garner some favourable headlines. Beating last year's surplus by all of £0.3bn was particularly disappointing, E&Y were suggesting maybe £3bn earlier this week. Still, could be worse, I suppose.
My guess is that Hammond will use this extra room for manoeuvre not to cut borrowing (as he probably should) but to give yet another wodge of extra cash to the NHS and Social Care whilst also seeking to take some of the sting out of the rates review, probably with some form of phasing. If he does that should keep growth ticking along this year at roughly the same rate as last year given our mildly improved export opportunities with lower sterling and better growth in the EZ. Again, could be worse.
I wonder what a par score for Le Pen to retain her 5-2 odds would be ?
28.5 % perhaps ?
Doesn't that depend on who her opponent is?
If she's on 28.5%, and she's facing Macron who got 25%, then she'll drift. If she's on 28.5%, and she's facing Melanchon who got 18%, then she'll come in.
Not surprised to see those who wouldn't stop talking about Harriet Harman and the PIE in the 70s aren't going after Milo in the 2010s. Never was about principles was it?
Are you aware that Milo agrees with the current age of consent in the US and that bit wasn't included in the smear video?
Or that one of the paedos he outed is in court next month for rape? and two others were arrested?
DO you have a reputable link to the details of this 'outing'? You keep on mentioning it.
Would it really make you reconsider your opinion of him if it was true?
It's like watching a teenager besotted with a boy band.
Coming back late to this, but it depends.
If he had done genuine research to uncover abuse, then he should be lauded. If he has highlighted abuse that is known about but ignored, then he should be praised. If he has jumped on a bandwagon, then my feelings are neutral. If he or his supporters have just invented rubbish, then he should be damned.
And BTW, I'm not a Milo fan. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Copeland byelection: Corbyn proving 'barrier' in Sellafield seat
Vox pop from Stoke:
Alan: “We definitely vote UKIP. I voted Labour all my life. Never again. Corbyn’s the main reason. I think Theresa May’s doing a good job. She’s certainly the best leader in the Commons at the moment. I’ve never voted Tory.”
Ann: “I would. I believe she’ll do what she said.”
Alan: “I’d find it very difficult to vote for the Tories.”
Ann: “Labour isn’t the party it was. And Tony Blair, how he dares to show his face, I don’t know. This city has always been Labour, but I don’t think we are now.”
Maybe relying too much on personal feeling, but I think Lab>Con is a very hard jump for people/communities who have been tribal Labour all their life
I'm sure it is very difficult - but when there's a 113 point gap in net favourability ratings between the two leaders among the over-65s some people may be tempted to change the habits of a lifetime.....
For many ingrained voters, it will be too much of a jump. But actively supporting a Con candidate and accepting the risk of passively letting one in are two different things. Lab switches to UKIP, LD, others or abstentions are the bigger risks.
(Even now, in the mid- to high-teens Con poll leads, the direct Lab-Con swing is small; the effective swing is driven mainly by third-party effects and lesser certainty to vote among 2015 Lab voters).
I simply can't find an example of a governing party overcoming a lead of 6.5% in by-election conditions.
Labour gained Darlington in 1983, just before going down to a massive defeat, so why should they lost Copeland?
Comments
I suspect, only suspect, mind that in some areas ...... not East Anglia, I would agree ....... the answers could have been different.
2.87 is an astonishing opportunity if you're not yet in the market.
Likewise, there are at least two examples of parties gaining the second seat in a 2-seat constituency where they already held the first (and had scored the larger total at the preceding GE), which might be a gain in one sense but doesn't require any kind of swing to do it.
To be honest, I don't think it's worth going back before 1945 for precedents: the fluidity of the party structure and of which parties contested seats (and in what number, in the double-/triple-member seats), make comparisons too difficult. As the thread leader might indicate, I tried looking for precisely that example but gave up when I reached the early 1920s after finding too many exceptions. There no doubt will be an instance of - for example - two straight Con/Lib fights and the seat reversing to the government's advantage but I'm not sure there's any value to finding them.
(Increase in government spending, in NHS speak, is treating the symptoms, not addressing the cause - which is like a cancer atrophying services.)
That said, both Brexit and Trump were even more massive *well after* counting was underway.
Fillon is currently available to back on BF at 4
Is oddschecker the best place for comparative political betting odds?
UKIP faces coming third in Stoke as voters turn on Nuttall for his 'toxic' Hillsborough claim
http://uk.businessinsider.com/ukip-faces-coming-third-in-stoke-as-voters-turn-on-nuttall-for-his-toxic-hillsborough-claim-2017-2
Broken, sleazy progressives on the slide!
Edited extra bit: hedged Macron a bit more. Up a little if he loses, a bit more if he wins. Cheers to the many PBers who tipped him at 13.
Edited extra bit 2: this means it will be the first such market (party leader, prime minister, president) I've ever finished ahead
1. I like to protect my reputation, such as it is, for analysis. Making bad predictions, for whatever reason, doesn't do much for that reputation. On a betting site, it does even more damage.
2. If I was going to manage expectations, it would be to set the Tory bar higher, so as to make it easier for Corbyn to appear to have a good night.
3. I doubt if my expectations / predictions have any meaningful impact in the wider world, so misleading people here would simply cause people on PB to (a) mistrust what I was saying, and/or (b) lose money - neither of which I want and even were I trying to spin, both of which would be too high a price.
If she wins 31 - 19 - 19 then she'll go odds on.
If it is 27 - 23 I'd expect a drift.
But a certain degree of "but is she actually doing anything useful?" is starting to creep in. I think that having the right manner only takes you so far, and some favourable people are starting to wonder if the cautious manner overlays ineffectiveness in practice.
My feeling is everyone is being far too conservative in their analysis of the political landscape, we are probably going to see shifts in support similar to post-ref Scotland. Whatever you thought you knew, forget it.
28.5 % perhaps ?
Armed Spanish police have arrested a Swedish driver after he was seen speeding the wrong way down a motorway towards Barcelona in a stolen truck carrying gas cylinders.
The vehicle, carrying dozens of butane canisters, rammed several cars before it was finally stopped on one of the road's exits.
A Swedish identified as Joakim Robin Berggren has reportedly been arrested and Spain's counter-terror unit has launched an investigation into the incident.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4244966/Truck-driver-shot-dead-speeds-Barcelona.html
No jumping to conclusions at the back.
Another decentish value bet in the Copeland by-election appears to centre on Labour's share of the vote, where both Laddies and Betfred go 5/4 on it being between 30% - 40%
At the 2015 GE, Labour secured a 42.3% share, with the Tories second on 35.8%.
I don't think anyone on either side of the divide is seriously suggesting that Labour will increase its share and therefore 40% is probably its potential ceiling. Equally it would be a devastating result for them were their share to slip below 30% and for the reasons David H has set out this appears unlikely. So somewhere in between looks likely to be the outcome - a word of warning though - turnout will be way below that seen at the GE, perhaps only half that level and this factor could significantly distort the division of the votes between the parties.
As ever, DYOR.
Mr. G, to be fair, I was torn between laying to be level or laying to be all green before. I think Macron's drifting, so it does make sense.
If I were all green on every market I certainly wouldn't complain.
If my hunch is right, the polling, and therefore the odds, could shift away from Le Pen once the first round is announced. That would suggest that laying Le Pen immediately after the first-round results are announced but before the first opinion polls are out might be good timing.
Of course, my hunch might be completely wrong!
Cautious manner? Like being the first PM to 'invade' the House of Lords yesterday?
Pushing for A50 by March?
Saying that we will have hard Brexit if the EU doesn't play ball?
Inviting POTUS against opposition?
If this is cautious, let's hope she never gets adventurous...
"THIS is what His Serene Magnificence Tony Blair says about Britain voting to leave the EU: “The people voted without knowledge of the true terms of Brexit. As these terms become clear, it is their right to change their mind.” Now, apply those same words to the 1975 referendum when Britain voted to stay in the Common Market. Back then, we certainly voted without knowledge of the true terms. We thought we were joining a free-trade area but were gradually swallowed into an undemocratic and unaccountable superstate. We had the right to change our mind and in last year's referendum we did so. The difference between the 1975 and 2016 referendums is that in 1975 we had no idea what the EU would become. Now we know exactly what it's about. So thanks for the advice, Tony, now shove off. Aren't you supposed to be bringing peace to the Middle East or something?"
Of course there were a lot of things he hadn’t done then!
Aberdeen Donside, Dunfermline and Cowdenbeath
All swings against the Holyrood government.
A swing toward SNP in westminster Inverclyde, but the SNP is NOT the Westminster government.
Looking at Scotland emphasises the point that the Tories should not be favourites in Copeland.
Edit. Sorry, I now see you are referring to the odds after the first round results are known
http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/02/21/inenglish/1487678362_290972.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW_CM
I assume it is not polling which is banned but publishing their results.
Private polls still available to hedge funds for example.
Sorry for misleading you.
https://aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/me/mea/mec03c
Bugger
With Sacre retired, Thistlecrack injured and Vautour sadly gone must say Chelters is looking not as good as last year.
Coneygree out of form too
& Annie Power injured. Sheesh.
Not sure I'll bother, but it's there, if people want to.
Betting might be more open but always sad not to see the best animals compete.
Surely it will never catch on!
My guess is that Hammond will use this extra room for manoeuvre not to cut borrowing (as he probably should) but to give yet another wodge of extra cash to the NHS and Social Care whilst also seeking to take some of the sting out of the rates review, probably with some form of phasing. If he does that should keep growth ticking along this year at roughly the same rate as last year given our mildly improved export opportunities with lower sterling and better growth in the EZ. Again, could be worse.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/834009278218371072
NEW THREAD
If she's on 28.5%, and she's facing Macron who got 25%, then she'll drift.
If she's on 28.5%, and she's facing Melanchon who got 18%, then she'll come in.
If he had done genuine research to uncover abuse, then he should be lauded.
If he has highlighted abuse that is known about but ignored, then he should be praised.
If he has jumped on a bandwagon, then my feelings are neutral.
If he or his supporters have just invented rubbish, then he should be damned.
And BTW, I'm not a Milo fan. Quite the opposite, in fact.