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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With so much free polling data available LAB is wasting members’ money on the “should JC quit” 10k sample survey
The Mirror is reporting that Corbyn has commissioned a 10k sample poll to get views on his own future. It notes:-
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Except this is with them in government not opposition.
This is a majority of c. 120 on existing boundaries and c. 130 on new boundaries...
Labour denies conducting secret opinion poll to decide Jeremy Corbyn's future
Party denies moves to canvass opinion on its leader as pressure mounts ahead of crucial by-elections
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-jeremy-corbyn-poll-secret-opinion-poll-mcdonnell-latest-a7589416.html
Con 44% (+2)
Lab 26% (-1)
UKIP 13% (+1)
LD 8% (-2)
Green 4% (nc)
The Guardian/ICM poll also featured questions on Donald Trump, John Bercow and Brexit.
This afternoon MPs will debate a petition signed by almost 2m people saying that, while Donald Trump should be free to visit the UK, he should not be honoured with a state visit.
We asked about this, and it turns out a majority of Britons agree.
Asked about the Trump visit, people were given three options.
Trump should be prevented from visiting Britain: 18%
Trump should be allowed to visit but not given a full state visit: 37%
Trump should be given a full state visit: 32%
Don’t know: 12%
Majority of Britons (55%) are opposed to Donald Trump getting a full state visit, poll suggests.
Bercow should stay as speaker because he is doing a good job: 30%
Bercow should resign or be removed as speaker because he’s not impartial: 32%
Don’t know: 38%
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/20/paul-nuttall-ukip-chairmen-quit-in-protest-over-paul-nuttalls-hillsborough-falsehoold-politics-live
Conservatives defended 7 seats in Jan/Feb held 2 lost 5 1 to Inds 4 to Lib Dems . 4 more seats being defended this week
Lab 34%
Con 29%
UKIP 23%
LD 4%
Green 4%
I'd have preferred more bercow option. I don't think he should be removed right now but I don't think he is doing a good job.
Con 44%
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Lab 26%
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UKIP 13%
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LD 8%
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Green 4%
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Copeland is well gone if the Tories get that close in Stoke too - local candidate exceptionalism just isn't that strong no matter how bad Snell is, or how good Troughton is.
At 26%, Labour is just one point above the lowest it has ever reached in this series (25%, which it hit in June 2008 and August 2009).
But, at 44%, the Conservatives are some way off the highest they have reached in this series, the 47.5% they reached in May 1983."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/20/paul-nuttall-ukip-chairmen-quit-in-protest-over-paul-nuttalls-hillsborough-falsehoold-politics-live?page=with:block-58aaec1ce4b0aa06fafde7f6#block-58aaec1ce4b0aa06fafde7f6
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/2017_guardian_feb2_poll.pdf
If a General Election were held this Thursday the LDs would get nothing like 26.2% although it's clear they would recoup a lot of their 2014 losses and probably end up with 30-40 seats.
I know opinion polls can be wrong but not THAT wrong!
GOLD STANDARD
If the Stoke 2015 start point is Lab 39 UKIP 23 Con 23 LD 4, an eighteen point swing from Lab-Lib creates Lab 21 UKIP 23 Con 23 LD 22.
Is Corbyn that disastrous? Very possibly.
From this point in the last parliament the swingback wasn't that great, the big plunge came between Feb and May 2012.
Don't be under any illusion that many people vote for more taxation for anything other than hard pure self interest.
My personal favourite is this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZBLqkQLBb4
What is May doing there?
Pretty much pointer had it as Labour were deep in trouble, all the mood music was awful them.
Yet they won with an increase majority.
What would pbers regard as a fair price for UKIP in Stoke Central right now?
Wall Street Journal
Murder rates in Chicago, Baltimore, Milwaukee and Memphis have returned to levels not seen since the 1990s https://t.co/Rzw0lYHrDY
In latest Opinion Way poll Marine Le Pen makes 2nd round & polls 42% (her highest yet vs Macron) or 44% (vs Fillon)"
http://bit.ly/2m3xMVw
Edit: 44%? Gold is too low of a standard for ICM
Snell is an utter clown.
The only reason most people work in either sector is to do what they need to to make a living.
I recently read The Fire Child. Sadly I didn't find it anywhere near as good as the Ice Twins: oddly you didn't really capture the essence of Cornwall well, at least in my eyes. Perhaps you were overly familiar with it? Also, the underlying mystery didn't feel as strong.
Still an enjoyable read though. Thanks.
There are plenty of people in, say, the drug discovery business, or any number of innovative product and service companies, where the personal drive is to improve the world.
Indeed, most of the research on the matter I've seen is that people who tend to be financially successful in innovative fields are so not because they seek profit, but that they are doing what they like to do and what they are driven to do, and it is that passion that helps them succeed (putting in the effort, shrugging off the setbacks, overcoming the obstacles).
So you have it exactly the wrong way around. People who tend to be most financially successful in innovation fields are so because they were not driven by money but by passion.
It's in the Tory party's interests to keep him there as long as possible, if he's still there on this date in 2020 it will be too late to replace him and he will lead Labour to Armourgeddon.
Even if Brexit turns out badly and the EU is seen as a success by then, it still won't help Labour if Corbyn is their leader.
what guff
convenience, child care, lifestyle for starters
http://labourlist.org/2017/02/exclusive-three-days-to-save-the-nhs-in-west-cumbria-by-election-candidate-says/
The thing about Devon is that you don't need to stray far from a main road to be really isolated (admittedly, there is only one main road, the M5/A38).
The story is much more complex than can be detailed in a tweet, or in your stupidly pointless two-word addition.
I'm unsure why you appear to wish to blame Obama for this. You might want to at least partially blame the gun-obsessed Republicans.