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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Copeland and Stoke Central – the final push

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    edited February 2017

    I think they realised teaming up with France would ruin what's left of Oxford's reputation.

    https://twitter.com/UniofOxford/status/833621736084107265

    Nottingham University has campuses (campi?) in China and Malaysia.

    See https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/about/campuses/chinacampus.aspx
    Plenty of British (and American and Australian) schools and universities with a presence in this part of the world too. Huge demand for high-quality English-language education, not just from the expat community but from the local populations too. Education is a huge export market for the UK, whether from overseas campuses or overseas students studying in Britain.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,493

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:
    Malc, are you seriously trying to use Wings as a rebuttal? Even by your standards that's rather weak...
    Far better than the garbage right wing rags that Carlotta uses. Go ahead and rebut any of the information why don't you. That clown has been spouting his crap forever , a total right wing loser, aided and abetted by right wing toilet paper media.
    Are you seriously suggesting that the Scottish Government's own figures are wrong?

    No comment on the IRA supporting SNP candidate I note......
    I am seriously suggesting that they can only use the tainted numbers supplied by London Tories , which everybody knows are a fantasy.
    The Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) web area provides information on the annually published GERS report. GERS is compiled by statisticians and economists in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser of the Scottish Government. The Scottish Government's Chief Statistician takes responsibility for this publication.

    http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS
    You can put as much propaganda up as you wish, facts are that it is impossible to extrapolate the actual numbers from the UK data. Not surprisingly the Tories in London paint an unflattering picture. The SNP can only use the numbers supplied by the clowns who run the country. Perhaps if you think so highly of their numbers, why don't you question the incompetence of the Tories given their crap running of Scotland. They prefer to be seen as useless toss*** rather than post the real numbers.
  • Patrick said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    @macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND
    FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND
    MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%


    Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.

    Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon


    And Fillon only wins 56-44%???

    Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.

    That would be helpful for the UK
    Why?

    We'd have a friendly negotiating partner.
    In what conceivable world is Marine le Pen friendly to the UK?
    A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.

    France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.
    The EU is over if MLP wins. There will be no deal to have as there will be nobody with whom to have it.
    Let us wish her well then. We need the nation states of Europe to be strong and prosperous and to trade freely with each other. A superstate is not in the interests of any European citizen.
    Someone upthread called her a 'quasi Fascist'. Actually her economic agenda seems very protectionist / centralising / socialist to me. The FN look to me like the nasty far left. Not far right at all really.
    Fascists generally take a protectionist / centralising / planned approach. It's one aspect of their nationalism, which is distrustful of foreigners and as such increases the need for self-sufficiency in as far as is reasonably possible - and which therefore also requires state 'guidance'.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.

    France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.

    Yes, but that is about the worst possible scenario from our point of view. It's going to be hard enough to get any kind of coherent deal with the EU27+EU Parliament as it is. The EU collapsing into political chaos - which it certainly would in the event of a Le Pen victory - would simply guarantee no deal at all, not to mention economic chaos amongst our biggest set of trading partners. This would be a very serious and damaging development for the UK.
    I think PB Leavers are of the school of: it's not enough for me to succeed, my friends must fail.
    https://explorable.com/social-judgment-theory-experiment
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited February 2017
    Regarding the Sweden story - the lid is off within conservative ranks and alarming leaners who'd no idea.

    Trump's grenade worked again. But he's stupid - yeah right.

    https://youtu.be/y1_viPSD-bY
  • Asking for a friend who is writing a piece for a website.

    The plural of 'dominatrix' is 'dominatrices' isn't it?

    My phone says 'dominatrices' is wrong and it should be 'domiatrixes'

    For comprehensiveness, the collective noun (itself an appropriate term) for dominatrix is a 'moseley', I believe.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,615
    HYUFD said:

    Patrick said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    @macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND
    FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND
    MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%


    Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.

    Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon


    And Fillon only wins 56-44%???

    Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.

    That would be helpful for the UK
    Why?

    We'd have a friendly negotiating partner.
    In what conceivable world is Marine le Pen friendly to the UK?
    A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.

    France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.
    The EU is over if MLP wins. There will be no deal to have as there will be nobody with whom to have it.
    Let us wish her well then. We need the nation states of Europe to be strong and prosperous and to trade freely with each other. A superstate is not in the interests of any European citizen.
    Someone upthread called her a 'quasi Fascist'. Actually her economic agenda seems very protectionist / centralising / socialist to me. The FN look to me like the nasty far left. Not far right at all really.
    Certainly Macron has said the EU is dead if Le Pen wins, so most probably is global free trade for the time being after Brexit and Trump's win too
    Sovreignty, man, it's all going to be worth it for the sovreignty. Blue passports, as well, I expect. The reanimated corpse of Sir Alec Guiness will make a new series of Ealing Comedies.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,095

    Mr. Eagles, can't see it happening, myself.

    The only way I can see it happening is the post Brexit UK experiences an economic slump, whilst the EU booms.
    and without Greece blowing up into an unholy mess later in the year when the IMF walks away from the next bailout and the Germans are forced to follow suit.
    How much does Greece owe to the IMF now?

    If the IMF walks and Greece goes bust then that money is all lost. I would not rule out another big serving of fudge to keep the show on the road.
    It will be another lesson in advanced can kicking.

    Truly, the cradle of western civilization stil has much to teach us.
    Sandpit said:

    Brexit

    Amazon announces creation of

    1500 jobs in France
    2000 jobs in Germany
    5000 jobs in UK

    That's a lot of jobs. Whatever happened to the automated warehouses that only needed a couple of robot technicians to run them?
    Pending?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,848
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Patrick said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    @macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND
    FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND
    MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%


    Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.

    Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon


    And Fillon only wins 56-44%???

    Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.

    That would be helpful for the UK
    Why?

    We'd have a friendly negotiating partner.
    In what conceivable world is Marine le Pen friendly to the UK?
    A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.

    France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.
    The EU is over if MLP wins. There will be no deal to have as there will be nobody with whom to have it.
    Let us wish her well then. We need the nation states of Europe to be strong and prosperous and to trade freely with each other. A superstate is not in the interests of any European citizen.
    Someone upthread called her a 'quasi Fascist'. Actually her economic agenda seems very protectionist / centralising / socialist to me. The FN look to me like the nasty far left. Not far right at all really.
    Certainly Macron has said the EU is dead if Le Pen wins, so most probably is global free trade for the time being after Brexit and Trump's win too
    Sovreignty, man, it's all going to be worth it for the sovreignty. Blue passports, as well, I expect. The reanimated corpse of Sir Alec Guiness will make a new series of Ealing Comedies.
    We will be eating grass but at least it will be British grass!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,095
    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.

    France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.

    Yes, but that is about the worst possible scenario from our point of view. It's going to be hard enough to get any kind of coherent deal with the EU27+EU Parliament as it is. The EU collapsing into political chaos - which it certainly would in the event of a Le Pen victory - would simply guarantee no deal at all, not to mention economic chaos amongst our biggest set of trading partners. This would be a very serious and damaging development for the UK.
    I think PB Leavers are of the school of: it's not enough for me to succeed, my friends must fail.
    Some.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:


    Americans take out more insurance, higher NI for the middle-aged and more annuities not a new estates tax is the way forward and would be more politically acceptable

    I'm guessing this "middle aged" tax will begin at 40 right after I've cleared the student loan ?
    No, the higher NI would begin at 50 when not only the student loan but the mortgage starts to have been paid off and children begin to leave home, it then ends at 65-67 once you take your pension
    So people who have paid little or nothing can leech off the back of people who have been paying a fortune all their lives. How very socialist. Stop NI and let people pay for their own medical care.
    No going forward everyone would pay for their social care through higher NI from the ages of 50 to 65, those older than 65 will still have made NI contributions just not at the higher rate
    Anyone starting a new family at 50 is fecked ;)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,716
    kle4 said:

    Well, there's a surprise:

    Gillian Troughton told LabourList there were just days left to “save the NHS” in West Cumbria before voters go to the polls on Thursday.

    http://labourlist.org/2017/02/exclusive-three-days-to-save-the-nhs-in-west-cumbria-by-election-candidate-says/

    I get there are local circumstances that make pushing a message on the NHS particularly relevant for this seat, and I get most are not so mired in politics that they will be inundated with the same old messages all the time, but does the 'x days to save y' thing ever really work? Obviously it isn't enough sometimes, but it is tried so often I presume it must be effective more often than not, or is perceived to be at any rate.
    My honest feeling is that
    (1) politicians have cried wolf too often on the NHS when the real choice was between "a bit less good but still OKish" and "better";
    (2) the wolf really has arrived now and the service is genuinely struggling to provide merely adequate serivce and
    (3) people aren't sure if it's a real wolf or not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,848
    kle4 said:

    Well, there's a surprise:

    Gillian Troughton told LabourList there were just days left to “save the NHS” in West Cumbria before voters go to the polls on Thursday.

    http://labourlist.org/2017/02/exclusive-three-days-to-save-the-nhs-in-west-cumbria-by-election-candidate-says/

    I get there are local circumstances that make pushing a message on the NHS particularly relevant for this seat, and I get most are not so mired in politics that they will be inundated with the same old messages all the time, but does the 'x days to save y' thing ever really work? Obviously it isn't enough sometimes, but it is tried so often I presume it must be effective more often than not, or is perceived to be at any rate.
    It is scaremongering,when she says 'save the NHS' she really means 'save Jeremy and I' plus the Tory candidate is now campaigning for more health funding for Cumbria anyway
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,095
    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Brexit

    Amazon announces creation of

    1500 jobs in France
    2000 jobs in Germany
    5000 jobs in UK

    That's a lot of jobs. Whatever happened to the automated warehouses that only needed a couple of robot technicians to run them?
    Low paid people running about like headless chickens are cheaper than robots.
    It's my retirement plan.,
  • Honestly, you bounders.

    Some of us are cads as well as bounders.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,157
    PlatoSaid said:

    Brexit

    Amazon announces creation of

    1500 jobs in France
    2000 jobs in Germany
    5000 jobs in UK

    I'm rather enjoying this. And the MSM freaking out/misrepresenting what Trump said re Sweden.

    His remark has resulted in millions Googling 'Sweden rape'. Iain Martin made a very silly smug blunder against Paul Joseph Watson and got squished.

    Trump's bully pulpit is setting the agenda.
    It's a bit of a stretch to say that he was misrepresented when "what happened last night in Sweden" actually means 'what I saw some guy on on Fox say a couple of nights back about Sweden'.

    If he bared his arse on national TV, I'm reasonably sure you'd still be enthusiastic about his 'setting the agenda'.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,848

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:


    Americans take out more insurance, higher NI for the middle-aged and more annuities not a new estates tax is the way forward and would be more politically acceptable

    I'm guessing this "middle aged" tax will begin at 40 right after I've cleared the student loan ?
    No, the higher NI would begin at 50 when not only the student loan but the mortgage starts to have been paid off and children begin to leave home, it then ends at 65-67 once you take your pension
    So people who have paid little or nothing can leech off the back of people who have been paying a fortune all their lives. How very socialist. Stop NI and let people pay for their own medical care.
    No going forward everyone would pay for their social care through higher NI from the ages of 50 to 65, those older than 65 will still have made NI contributions just not at the higher rate
    Anyone starting a new family at 50 is fecked ;)
    Well certainly virtually no women will be at that age and the men who do will likely be rich enough to afford it anyway
  • TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.

    France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.

    Yes, but that is about the worst possible scenario from our point of view. It's going to be hard enough to get any kind of coherent deal with the EU27+EU Parliament as it is. The EU collapsing into political chaos - which it certainly would in the event of a Le Pen victory - would simply guarantee no deal at all, not to mention economic chaos amongst our biggest set of trading partners. This would be a very serious and damaging development for the UK.
    I think PB Leavers are of the school of: it's not enough for me to succeed, my friends must fail.
    Ah I see you are confused again. What you really meant to say was that Remainers believe it is not enough for the EU to succeed, Britain must fail.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,095

    kle4 said:

    Well, there's a surprise:

    Gillian Troughton told LabourList there were just days left to “save the NHS” in West Cumbria before voters go to the polls on Thursday.

    http://labourlist.org/2017/02/exclusive-three-days-to-save-the-nhs-in-west-cumbria-by-election-candidate-says/

    I get there are local circumstances that make pushing a message on the NHS particularly relevant for this seat, and I get most are not so mired in politics that they will be inundated with the same old messages all the time, but does the 'x days to save y' thing ever really work? Obviously it isn't enough sometimes, but it is tried so often I presume it must be effective more often than not, or is perceived to be at any rate.
    My honest feeling is that
    (1) politicians have cried wolf too often on the NHS when the real choice was between "a bit less good but still OKish" and "better";
    (2) the wolf really has arrived now and the service is genuinely struggling to provide merely adequate serivce and
    (3) people aren't sure if it's a real wolf or not.
    I suspect you are correct, because pleas on the NHS no longer touch my stony heart. 'Crisis' in the winter, 'crisis' in social care, 'crisis' in nursing. These could all well be true, but I've heard its a shambles my entire life. Either its not a shambles or no bugger has the will to 'save' it, or they have the will but not the ability. Either way, no point in worrying about it anymore until, god forbid, I end up having to use the service.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,043
    edited February 2017

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.

    France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.

    Yes, but that is about the worst possible scenario from our point of view. It's going to be hard enough to get any kind of coherent deal with the EU27+EU Parliament as it is. The EU collapsing into political chaos - which it certainly would in the event of a Le Pen victory - would simply guarantee no deal at all, not to mention economic chaos amongst our biggest set of trading partners. This would be a very serious and damaging development for the UK.
    I think PB Leavers are of the school of: it's not enough for me to succeed, my friends must fail.
    Yes YOU think that. No PB Leavers do.
    You lot have gone from wanting to leave the EU to relishing its downfall.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,493

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:


    Americans take out more insurance, higher NI for the middle-aged and more annuities not a new estates tax is the way forward and would be more politically acceptable

    I'm guessing this "middle aged" tax will begin at 40 right after I've cleared the student loan ?
    No, the higher NI would begin at 50 when not only the student loan but the mortgage starts to have been paid off and children begin to leave home, it then ends at 65-67 once you take your pension
    So people who have paid little or nothing can leech off the back of people who have been paying a fortune all their lives. How very socialist. Stop NI and let people pay for their own medical care.
    No going forward everyone would pay for their social care through higher NI from the ages of 50 to 65, those older than 65 will still have made NI contributions just not at the higher rate
    Anyone starting a new family at 50 is fecked ;)
    Also extremely STUPID
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:
    Malc, are you seriously trying to use Wings as a rebuttal? Even by your standards that's rather weak...
    Far better than the garbage right wing rags that Carlotta uses. Go ahead and rebut any of the information why don't you. That clown has been spouting his crap forever , a total right wing loser, aided and abetted by right wing toilet paper media.
    Are you seriously suggesting that the Scottish Government's own figures are wrong?

    No comment on the IRA supporting SNP candidate I note......
    I am seriously suggesting that they can only use the tainted numbers supplied by London Tories , which everybody knows are a fantasy.
    The Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) web area provides information on the annually published GERS report. GERS is compiled by statisticians and economists in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser of the Scottish Government. The Scottish Government's Chief Statistician takes responsibility for this publication.

    http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS
    The SNP can only use the numbers supplied by the clowns who run the country.
    That would be the SNP, the Scottish Government, and the Scottish Government's Chief Statistician.....as the link I just posted from the Scottish Government makes clear....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,493
    Nigelb said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Brexit

    Amazon announces creation of

    1500 jobs in France
    2000 jobs in Germany
    5000 jobs in UK

    I'm rather enjoying this. And the MSM freaking out/misrepresenting what Trump said re Sweden.

    His remark has resulted in millions Googling 'Sweden rape'. Iain Martin made a very silly smug blunder against Paul Joseph Watson and got squished.

    Trump's bully pulpit is setting the agenda.
    It's a bit of a stretch to say that he was misrepresented when "what happened last night in Sweden" actually means 'what I saw some guy on on Fox say a couple of nights back about Sweden'.

    If he bared his arse on national TV, I'm reasonably sure you'd still be enthusiastic about his 'setting the agenda'.
    Still you admit it was right , though you try to make it a stretch
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,493
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Brexit

    Amazon announces creation of

    1500 jobs in France
    2000 jobs in Germany
    5000 jobs in UK

    That's a lot of jobs. Whatever happened to the automated warehouses that only needed a couple of robot technicians to run them?
    Low paid people running about like headless chickens are cheaper than robots.
    It's my retirement plan.,
    At least you will be fit as a butcher's dog.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,493
    dr_spyn said:
    Tories panicking and see a good thrashing coming up
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,611

    Asking for a friend who is writing a piece for a website.

    The plural of 'dominatrix' is 'dominatrices' isn't it?

    My phone says 'dominatrices' is wrong and it should be 'domiatrixes'

    For comprehensiveness, the collective noun (itself an appropriate term) for dominatrix is a 'moseley', I believe.
    "A private matter between him and the six women involved".... ( best legal quote EVER )
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,130
    edited February 2017
    malcolmg said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Tories panicking and see a good thrashing coming up
    No need to panic when you are not expecting to do well in a traditional labour seat
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,095
    dr_spyn said:
    I'm not a genius then. They said she only went to Copeland as they felt the Tories would win, but they surely won't win Stoke?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    dr_spyn said:

    PM arrives in Stoke.

    htps://twitter.com/election_data/status/833655038950174721

    Because you linked to that twitter account, I now know what a rusty trombone is.

    I hate you.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2017
    dr_spyn said:
    That election data bloke is correct.

    That is significant.
  • HYUFD said:

    Le Pen now just 3% behind Trump's vote last November against Macron and just 1% behind against Fillon

    Macron would have beaten Trump
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,713
    edited February 2017
    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:
    I'm not a genius then. They said she only went to Copeland as they felt the Tories would win, but they surely won't win Stoke?
    I will eat Paddy Ashdown's hat if the Tories win both seats. One government gain from the opposition at a by election is rare, two on the same day....
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    @malcomg

    SNP gain Stoke?

    There wasn't a great deal of daylight between UKIP and Tories for 2nd & 3rd places. But if Carlsberg did by-election gains. Headlines dominated by two very poor candidates in Stoke.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I will eat Paddy Ashdown's hat if the Tories win both seats. One government gain from the opposition at a by election is rare, two on the same day....

    23 available on Betfair
  • dr_spyn said:
    Let's hope she used the lav before she went walkabout.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Selection Selection Details Result
    1
    Football Matches
    English FA Cup
    Sutton Utd v Arsenal
    20th of February 2017 7:55 pm
    Win-Draw-Win
    Sutton Utd @ 22/1
    Pending
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2017
    If the tories win Stoke, Corbyn is 110% toast.

    He'd resign on friday.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,752
    edited February 2017
    Stoke on Trent Central is target seat 407 for the Tories.

    Once you add in by-election exceptionalism (See Corby 2012) then a gain of Stoke by the Tories in a by-election points to the Tories heading up to around 450-500 seats and Labour staring down at sub 100 next GE.
    Labour are doing badly, but they're not doing that badly.

    I reckon Mrs May's visit is for what will be the hotly contested second place prize. Beating UKIP & Nuttall would be worthy of the visit.

    So @election_data I'd say the visit means the Tories think they can beat UKIP for second place.
  • I replied on twitter to Ian Warren that I would eat Paddy Ashdown's hat if the Tories won both Stoke and Copeland...

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/833657919421968389
  • Mr. Eagles, if the Conservatives won both it'd be an Empire Strikes Back moment for Labour.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:
    I'm not a genius then. They said she only went to Copeland as they felt the Tories would win, but they surely won't win Stoke?
    I will eat Paddy Ashdown's hat if the Tories win both seats. One government gain from the opposition at a by election is rare, two on the same day....
    Could it be the UkIp vote might be in trouble because of Nuttall.Which might let the Conservatives win the seat ?
  • Scott_P said:

    Selection Selection Details Result
    1
    Football Matches
    English FA Cup
    Sutton Utd v Arsenal
    20th of February 2017 7:55 pm
    Win-Draw-Win
    Sutton Utd @ 22/1
    Pending

    I was looking at taking that bet, then I got an email from Oddschecker offering me odds of 100/1 on it.
  • Pong said:

    dr_spyn said:
    That election data bloke is correct.

    That is significant.
    Tories dropping on BF.
  • dr_spyn said:
    Let's hope she used the lav before she went walkabout.
    Actually I feel sorry for that Kipper, he's 78 and with prostrate problems.
  • Pong said:

    If the tories win Stoke, Corbyn is 110% toast.

    He'd resign on friday.

    He didn't resign when most of his MPs passed a vote of no-confidence in him.
  • With Tristram Hunts departure from Stoke, anyone else think Labour's majority will increase?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,752

    Pong said:

    If the tories win Stoke, Corbyn is 110% toast.

    He'd resign on friday.

    He didn't resign when most of his MPs passed a vote of no-confidence in him.
    I think @Pong is right on this though. The hypothesis won't be tested.
  • With Tristram Hunts departure from Stoke, anyone else think Labour's majority will increase?

    Share of the vote might, but majority won't on usual by election turnout.
  • Pong said:

    If the tories win Stoke, Corbyn is 110% toast.

    He'd resign on friday.

    That explains it, they've sent Theresa May going door-to-door insulting the voters.
  • Pulpstar said:

    So @election_data I'd say the visit means the Tories think they can beat UKIP for second place.

    Yes - that seems much more likely - but also don't forget, May is much closer to the Constituency organisations than Cameron was - it may be as simple as that......showing willing to the local parties.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,297
    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.

    France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.

    Yes, but that is about the worst possible scenario from our point of view. It's going to be hard enough to get any kind of coherent deal with the EU27+EU Parliament as it is. The EU collapsing into political chaos - which it certainly would in the event of a Le Pen victory - would simply guarantee no deal at all, not to mention economic chaos amongst our biggest set of trading partners. This would be a very serious and damaging development for the UK.
    I think PB Leavers are of the school of: it's not enough for me to succeed, my friends must fail.
    *Enemies.
  • Pulpstar said:

    So @election_data I'd say the visit means the Tories think they can beat UKIP for second place.

    Yes - that seems much more likely - but also don't forget, May is much closer to the Constituency organisations than Cameron was - it may be as simple as that......showing willing to the local parties.....
    Or just a sense of humour.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Would losing Stoke to the Tories be worse than losing to UKIP?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Adding to the Gaiety of Anglo-Russo-EU relations:

    Gibraltar has impounded a Russian billionaire's superyacht - one of the world's biggest - because the German shipbuilder says he still owes 15.3m euros (£13.3m; $16.3m) in fees....
    ....The Gibraltar Port Authority says "most arrested ships are sold in a sealed-bids auction within six to eight weeks, once the claim has been proved and judgment given".


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39026845

    I'm involved with this arrest ... was on board this morning.

    http://www.gbc.gi/news/superyacht-arrested-over-15-million-claim-34487
  • A former CCHQ staffer replies to my text about Mrs May visiting Stoke with

    Inverness, Nairn, and Lochaber 1992
  • kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:
    I'm not a genius then. They said she only went to Copeland as they felt the Tories would win, but they surely won't win Stoke?
    I will eat Paddy Ashdown's hat
    Hasn't he eaten it already?

    Don't tell me a Lib Dem didn't keep their promise?

  • Pong said:

    If the tories win Stoke, Corbyn is 110% toast.

    He'd resign on friday.

    That explains it, they've sent Theresa May going door-to-door insulting the voters.
    LOL. I expect a leaflet by end of day saying a Vote for Tory would guarantee closure of all the hospitals in the city and A&E moved to Birmingham. The leaflet would be printed by Tories of course.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2017
    DanSmith said:

    Would losing Stoke to the Tories be worse than losing to UKIP?

    Yes x10
  • Tories back at 12 on BF.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,752
    DanSmith said:

    Would losing Stoke to the Tories be worse than losing to UKIP?

    Yes. The Tories are in government, they aren't supposed to win by-elections where they start off in third miles behind. UKIP are an insurgent party unburdened by government.
  • kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:
    I'm not a genius then. They said she only went to Copeland as they felt the Tories would win, but they surely won't win Stoke?
    I will eat Paddy Ashdown's hat
    Hasn't he eaten it already?

    Don't tell me a Lib Dem didn't keep their promise?

    He has, I'm sure he has more than one.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11594442/General-election-2015-Paddy-Ashdown-eats-hat-following-Conservative-win.html
  • GeoffM said:

    Adding to the Gaiety of Anglo-Russo-EU relations:

    Gibraltar has impounded a Russian billionaire's superyacht - one of the world's biggest - because the German shipbuilder says he still owes 15.3m euros (£13.3m; $16.3m) in fees....
    ....The Gibraltar Port Authority says "most arrested ships are sold in a sealed-bids auction within six to eight weeks, once the claim has been proved and judgment given".


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39026845

    I'm involved with this arrest ... was on board this morning.

    http://www.gbc.gi/news/superyacht-arrested-over-15-million-claim-34487
    Don't go to any Sushi restaurants (or was it a hotel bar?)!
  • Pong said:

    DanSmith said:

    Would losing Stoke to the Tories be worse than losing to UKIP?

    Yes x10
    What a choice. Do want to be slowly poisoned, sir, or boiled alive.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Mr. Eagles, if the Conservatives won both it'd be an Empire Strikes Back moment for Labour.

    Labour might prefer to lose both to the Tories rather than UKIP. As they could see a way back.Also the Tories would have finished the UkIp threat to them for the current time.May would be totally dominant for the next two years without an election.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    A former CCHQ staffer replies to my text about Mrs May visiting Stoke with

    Inverness, Nairn, and Lochaber 1992

    Shouldn't we be backing the Lib Dems at 55 then?
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    A former CCHQ staffer replies to my text about Mrs May visiting Stoke with

    Inverness, Nairn, and Lochaber 1992

    Gosh. LibDems must be eating into the Labour vote big time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,752

    Pong said:

    DanSmith said:

    Would losing Stoke to the Tories be worse than losing to UKIP?

    Yes x10
    What a choice. Do want to be slowly poisoned, sir, or boiled alive.
    A defeat to either is terrible, but to the Tories would mean Labour looking at under a hundred seats next GE with Corbyn in charge.

    That won't happen however.

    The Tories won't win Stoke, and Corbyn would be out very very quickly if they did.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Asking for a friend who is writing a piece for a website.

    The plural of 'dominatrix' is 'dominatrices' isn't it?

    My phone says 'dominatrices' is wrong and it should be 'domiatrixes'

    Can't help. Never booked more than one.
  • GeoffM said:

    Adding to the Gaiety of Anglo-Russo-EU relations:

    Gibraltar has impounded a Russian billionaire's superyacht - one of the world's biggest - because the German shipbuilder says he still owes 15.3m euros (£13.3m; $16.3m) in fees....
    ....The Gibraltar Port Authority says "most arrested ships are sold in a sealed-bids auction within six to eight weeks, once the claim has been proved and judgment given".


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39026845

    I'm involved with this arrest ... was on board this morning.

    http://www.gbc.gi/news/superyacht-arrested-over-15-million-claim-34487
    If I had £millions to squander on a super yacht, it would look more Cutty Sark, than that tub...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,848
    edited February 2017

    I replied on twitter to Ian Warren that I would eat Paddy Ashdown's hat if the Tories won both Stoke and Copeland...

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/833657919421968389

    Having phoned a little in Stoke I can certainly say the Tory candidate as a young councillor educated locally is well known and goes down far better than Hunt, Snell and especially Nuttall, even if the Tories win Copeland I expect the Labour to Tory swing to be bigger in Stoke now
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    If the tories win Stoke, Corbyn is 110% toast.

    He'd resign on friday.

    He didn't resign when most of his MPs passed a vote of no-confidence in him.
    I think @Pong is right on this though. The hypothesis won't be tested.
    I agree, but I have done a little bit of light trading to cover the possibility at virtually no cost. Just in case.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,752
    I don't wish to cast aspersions on @election_data but he seems to be looking at this through the eyes of a worried Labour man rather than a true neutral analyst.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Sean_F said:
    Seriously hope he gets help. I think Thomas Mair had crazy theories as well.

    What is this about people defending peadophiles in America ? Dare I ask.........
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Lib Dem vote could be stronger than the markets think. Don't forget all those Staffordshire University students still have postal votes from last June.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,752
    Fenman said:

    Lib Dem vote could be stronger than the markets think. Don't forget all those Staffordshire University students still have postal votes from last June.

    Its an election of many moving parts, and I don't think they should be particularly longer priced than the Tories. The 60.0 on Betfair looks fair enough to me, backing the Tories at the bookies at 10-1 is throwing money away long term.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Fenman said:

    Lib Dem vote could be stronger than the markets think. Don't forget all those Staffordshire University students still have postal votes from last June.

    On the New Statesman podcast last week they had a reporter up there and their feeling was the student vote was going strongly to the LibDems.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,157
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Brexit

    Amazon announces creation of

    1500 jobs in France
    2000 jobs in Germany
    5000 jobs in UK

    I'm rather enjoying this. And the MSM freaking out/misrepresenting what Trump said re Sweden.

    His remark has resulted in millions Googling 'Sweden rape'. Iain Martin made a very silly smug blunder against Paul Joseph Watson and got squished.

    Trump's bully pulpit is setting the agenda.
    It's a bit of a stretch to say that he was misrepresented when "what happened last night in Sweden" actually means 'what I saw some guy on on Fox say a couple of nights back about Sweden'.

    If he bared his arse on national TV, I'm reasonably sure you'd still be enthusiastic about his 'setting the agenda'.
    Still you admit it was right , though you try to make it a stretch
    No, it was English understatement. A foreign concept, I know. :-)
    Next time I'll just say 'complete bollocks' for clarity's sake.
  • dr_spyn said:
    Let's hope she used the lav before she went walkabout.
    Actually I feel sorry for that Kipper, he's 78 and with prostrate problems.
    Prostrate? He was mortified!

    Actually, that's one reason my Libdem uncle gave up campaigning, though thinking Cleggy and co were useless also helped.
  • DanSmith said:

    Fenman said:

    Lib Dem vote could be stronger than the markets think. Don't forget all those Staffordshire University students still have postal votes from last June.

    On the New Statesman podcast last week they had a reporter up there and their feeling was the student vote was going strongly to the LibDems.
    a new generation who don't remember Clegg and tuition fees?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,752
    Labour 1-3
    UKIP 5-1
    Lib Dems 20s
    Tories 30s is my mental picture, prices not available but broadly reflecting my book take.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,752
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour 1-3
    UKIP 5-1
    Lib Dems 20s
    Tories 30s is my mental picture, prices not available but broadly reflecting my book take.

    With the Flying brick taking the rest of the market.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    edited February 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Fenman said:

    Lib Dem vote could be stronger than the markets think. Don't forget all those Staffordshire University students still have postal votes from last June.

    Its an election of many moving parts, and I don't think they should be particularly longer priced than the Tories. The 60.0 on Betfair looks fair enough to me, backing the Tories at the bookies at 10-1 is throwing money away long term.
    If it really is remotely close then it looks like the best value by a street. Labour will probably win but couldn't back them at that price, UKIP are seemingly a busted flush thanks to Nuttall, might as well set fire to your money as back the Tories at the current price, so yeah anything over 50 on betfair seems rather good.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    Adding to the Gaiety of Anglo-Russo-EU relations:

    Gibraltar has impounded a Russian billionaire's superyacht - one of the world's biggest - because the German shipbuilder says he still owes 15.3m euros (£13.3m; $16.3m) in fees....
    ....The Gibraltar Port Authority says "most arrested ships are sold in a sealed-bids auction within six to eight weeks, once the claim has been proved and judgment given".


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39026845

    I'm involved with this arrest ... was on board this morning.

    http://www.gbc.gi/news/superyacht-arrested-over-15-million-claim-34487
    If I had £millions to squander on a super yacht, it would look more Cutty Sark, than that tub...
    It's damn ugly inside and out, yes, agree entirely!
  • Might Theresa May's visit to Stoke simply be in order to set expectations for Tory success so high (and hence anticipated Labour performance so low), that Corbyn cannot fail to exceed them?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,752

    Might Theresa May's visit to Stoke simply be in order to set expectations for Tory success so high (and hence anticipated Labour performance so low), that Corbyn cannot fail to exceed them?

    Beating UKIP in Stoke would be good for the Tories long term I'd have thought.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,095

    Might Theresa May's visit to Stoke simply be in order to set expectations for Tory success so high (and hence anticipated Labour performance so low), that Corbyn cannot fail to exceed them?

    He still has a chance to win both seats (and I think he will), so not sure he needs May's help to exceed low expectations, since they are already very low surely.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited February 2017
    ICM; Con 44% (+2), Lab 26% (-1), UKIP 13% (+1), LD 8% (-2), Green 4% (NC)

    Highest Tory lead since 1983
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,908

    ICM; Con 44% (+2), Lab 26% (-1), UKIP 13% (+1), LD 8% (-2), Green 4% (NC)

    Highest Tory lead since 1983

    Broken sleazy Lib Dems on the slide. :)
  • tlg86 said:

    ICM; Con 44% (+2), Lab 26% (-1), UKIP 13% (+1), LD 8% (-2), Green 4% (NC)

    Highest Tory lead since 1983

    Broken sleazy Lib Dems on the slide. :)
    That's 20% of their support!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MattSingh_: Biggest poll lead for the Conservatives while in government since October 1987 twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/s…
  • ICM; Con 44% (+2), Lab 26% (-1), UKIP 13% (+1), LD 8% (-2), Green 4% (NC)

    Highest Tory lead since 1983

    UKIP surge under Prof. Nuttall’s leadership – didn’t see that coming…!
  • ICM; Con 44% (+2), Lab 26% (-1), UKIP 13% (+1), LD 8% (-2), Green 4% (NC)

    Highest Tory lead since 1983

    Caveats abound, but there *must* be a little bit of Mrs May that is hoping the Lords vote down the Brexit bill, and give her the casus belli she needs to overcome the FTPA and call a GE this summer....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited February 2017

    ICM; Con 44% (+2), Lab 26% (-1), UKIP 13% (+1), LD 8% (-2), Green 4% (NC)

    Highest Tory lead since 1983

    To clarify, the highest Tory lead with ICM (or its predecessor Marplan)
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    SeanT said:

    tlg86 said:

    ICM; Con 44% (+2), Lab 26% (-1), UKIP 13% (+1), LD 8% (-2), Green 4% (NC)

    Highest Tory lead since 1983

    Broken sleazy Lib Dems on the slide. :)
    Yes, that Remainery surge to the LDs is going well
    But... but... local government by elections....
This discussion has been closed.