The only way I can see it happening is the post Brexit UK experiences an economic slump, whilst the EU booms.
and without Greece blowing up into an unholy mess later in the year when the IMF walks away from the next bailout and the Germans are forced to follow suit.
How much does Greece owe to the IMF now?
If the IMF walks and Greece goes bust then that money is all lost. I would not rule out another big serving of fudge to keep the show on the road.
Any fudge would have to be from the ECB and the Germans this time. There's no appetite from the IMF (and their mostly-American funders) to see good money go after bad in order to keep the EZ politicians from having to sort out their own mess.
Gibraltar has impounded a Russian billionaire's superyacht - one of the world's biggest - because the German shipbuilder says he still owes 15.3m euros (£13.3m; $16.3m) in fees.... ....The Gibraltar Port Authority says "most arrested ships are sold in a sealed-bids auction within six to eight weeks, once the claim has been proved and judgment given".
The only way I can see it happening is the post Brexit UK experiences an economic slump, whilst the EU booms.
and without Greece blowing up into an unholy mess later in the year when the IMF walks away from the next bailout and the Germans are forced to follow suit.
How much does Greece owe to the IMF now?
If the IMF walks and Greece goes bust then that money is all lost. I would not rule out another big serving of fudge to keep the show on the road.
Any fudge would have to be from the ECB and the Germans this time. There's no appetite from the IMF (and their mostly-American funders) to see good money go after bad in order to keep the EZ politicians from having to sort out their own mess.
and the ruling from the constitutional court in Germany won't let them be part of any bail out if the IMF isn't.
Large sums of money available to back UKIP at 3.2 on Betfair. Someone hasn't given up hope for the good doctor.
That's someone who has given up hope isn't it? Otherwise they'd be backing
Oh, I need more coffee this morning. You're quite right.
They're hoping to find someone who hasn't given up hope. I'm sorry to say that I won't be taking that 3.2 off their hands at this point in time.
That's their lowest price I think since Nuttall was announced as he candidate, and there's still no takers for it.
PB survey, who got on the Tories at the highest price? I'll open with 30 (but only beer money), did anyone take the 51 that @Morris_Dancer highlighted yesterday? Not that anyone here has ever had a 50/1 bet come in of course!
The Dutch election will be on 15 March. The big questions are how long Wilders can string out the cabinet formation for and what his big talking points will be.
On the first, it could possibly be for a long time, and it will be if the "king" chooses an informateur from Wilders's party, which by convention he kind of should, as I understand it, if they win a plurality. If Wilders gets the chance, he will obviously help Le Pen.
The talking points that will most help Le Pen are
* "reform the EU" (Le Pen, Wilders and Tony Blair have all said they want this)
* "despite the plurality party leading the other parties by a long way, there's still deadlock, so the system must be broken" (ideal for FN GOTV and winning over DKs)
Dutch events and Britain's filing of A50 will synergise.
I don't think that's how the government formation works in the Netherlands.
Let's assume that the PVV tops the polls with 27 seats, against 24 for the VVD. If the VVD goes to Wilem-Alexander and says "I have a coalition of the ourselves, the CDU, GL and D66 that commands 81 seats of the 150 seat parliament" (just a random selection, there are clearly other possible coalitions), then Geert won't even be invited to the Royal Palace to discuss cabinet formation with His Majesty.
That's possible, but tradition (and no party has had a majority since 1897) is that
* the monarch meets individually with the vice-chair of the Council of State (the chair is the monarch himself), and with the chairs of both houses (one of whom is Muslim)
* then he meets individually with all party leaders
* then he appoints an informateur, usually from the plurality party but who is often a veteran and can be viewed as above the fray; he may also appoint more than one, each from a different party
* the informateur meets party leaders individually and chairs inter-party negotiations
* once there is an agreement in principle between parties who together have a majority, the monarch appoints a formateur who chairs meetings between those parties on the details of the government programme
If they do it your way that might be seen as upstaging the monarch.
Mr. Sandpit, to clarify (I think you know this but your post was slightly misleadingly worded and I wouldn't want undue credit) I didn't offer/mention that 51 tip. Someone else referred to a tweet from a political chap who cited it.
The problem the PVV has is that it seems unlikely to get more than about a third the number of seats it needs to get a coalition together. And there are a lot of parties that simply will not join a PVV led coalition. At the very least, it seems next to impossible they would get support from: D66 (18), the Greens (18), the Party of the Animals (5), the PvdA (12) or the Socialist Party (11). The Pirates are also flirting around the 0.66% required to get a seat. Between them, they will have 58-68 seats. I also can't see the VVD being junior coalition partners.
So who could they partner with? The Christian Democrats? They're EPP members and pretty pro-EU, so possible, but not likely. The Christian Union? OK, they're a bit more Eurosceptic; but their views on homesexuality (for example) are at complete odds with the PVV. They're a good bet, but they'll only have 5 or 6 seats. The Reformed Political Party? These are the true Calvinists, and they have refused to actually ever be in a coalition in their 100 years of existence. Will they break the habit and join the PVV? I don't buy it, but even if they did, it's only 3 or 4 seats. And then there's 50 Plus, the Party for the Oldies, and which might well get 10 seats. Now, they could join the PVV in coalition, but I'm also somewhat sceptical that they would
I agree with all of this - the PVV has few or no natural friends - but since nobody is likely to predict the distribution of seats exactly right, and given that there is no "Anti-PVV Coalition" ticket, there is likely to be some delay between voting day and government formation. I doubt the PVV will be entirely excluded from all meetings, when the party will be all over the place heralding the new dawn.
Mr. Sandpit, to clarify (I think you know this but your post was slightly misleadingly worded and I wouldn't want undue credit) I didn't offer/mention that 51 tip. Someone else referred to a tweet from a political chap who cited it.
Regular ties are a nightmare with the conveyor belts in sushi restaurants.
I've very fussy about my ties.
Don't even get me started on those dental floss skinny 'ties'
Partly why it was reported some of the UK overseas aid budget will go to Eastern Europe to try and cut the UK's payments to the EU
And the minor detail of the 20-ish % of EU assets that we need to be compensated for. After a lot of bickering we will probably flip a coin for the fiver left in the kitty.
If the EU want to go down the route of €60bn in payments (c.3% of U.K. GDP) then the U.K. Response will be to say OK fine, we'll leave two years from now to WTO terms, your move.
Hopefully all this initial posturing on all sides will be replaced by some sensible realpolitik once the negotiations actually start.
Why two years? OK, we'll leave tomorrow, end all payments forthwith save those that we are contractually obliged to make.
Large sums of money available to back UKIP at 3.2 on Betfair. Someone hasn't given up hope for the good doctor.
That's someone who has given up hope isn't it? Otherwise they'd be backing
Oh, I need more coffee this morning. You're quite right.
They're hoping to find someone who hasn't given up hope. I'm sorry to say that I won't be taking that 3.2 off their hands at this point in time.
That's their lowest price I think since Nuttall was announced as he candidate, and there's still no takers for it.
PB survey, who got on the Tories at the highest price? I'll open with 30 (but only beer money), did anyone take the 51 that @Morris_Dancer highlighted yesterday? Not that anyone here has ever had a 50/1 bet come in of course!
Remainers used to tweet the Leave price every time it drifted. I am sure they weren't trying to make a snide point...
I backed 64/1 Conservatives, but they have been matched a lot higher than that, and my overall book isn't looking too healthy!
The only way I can see it happening is the post Brexit UK experiences an economic slump, whilst the EU booms.
and without Greece blowing up into an unholy mess later in the year when the IMF walks away from the next bailout and the Germans are forced to follow suit.
Wikileaks sent out a request for insider leakers re Greece a few days ago. I haven't seen that before.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
What price my Le Pen pun is used in the PB Header if that transpires?
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
"3 in Every 7 of Labour’s 2015 Voters Backing Brexit Would Not Vote Labour in 2016
YouGov’s polling data set includes 2015 general election vote, current general election voting intention, and current EU voting intention. That means we can look at the ebb and flow of each individuals’ support for each party since May 2015, and how that relates to their EU voting intention.
For Labour, this evidence should ring alarm bells. Those who voted Labour in 2015 split about 2:1 in favour of Remain over Leave. By early May 2016 that had risen to almost 3:1 for current Labour voters, thanks almost entirely to the desertion of former Labour voters backing Leave. In the sample, 42% of the 137 Leave supporters who voted Labour in 2015 would not back the party today and overall the number of current Labour voters backing Leave is 29% down on 2015."
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
That would be helpful for the UK
Why?
We'd have a friendly negotiating partner.
Hmmm - I'm not sure about that. A more protectionist France - just like a more protectionist USA - is not I think a good result for Britain. Quite apart from the unknowable effects such a victory would have on the EU as a whole.
And there are moral considerations as well. Old-fashioned I know. But there you go.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
I've been on Le Pen for a while.
What if Hamon and Mélenchon sort something out and one of them backs the other? Then Macron and especially Fillon: pff!
ESSEX Police has refused to blame the vote to leave the EU for the rise in hate crime despite reporting the biggest rise since comparable records began. The majority of the nation’s police forces reported the highest number of incidents in the three months following the Brexit vote than in any quarter since 2012.
Essex Police claimed greater awareness and confidence in the police response was the reason why 33 of the country’s 42 forces experienced the highest number of reports on record at the same time. A spokesman for the force said: “There is no evidence to suggest any increase has been specifically and directly caused by any one event or issue”.
“Hate crime is significantly under-reported and we believe that greater awareness and confidence in the police response has contributed to these increases in reporting.
This is not news. It has always been the stated case that we cannot do trade deals while negotiating exit. Many in the EU are spiteful. They show their true colours and confirm why we should leave.
The Chancellor is set to receive a rare piece of good news on Budget day as the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast is expected to reveal lower borrowing projections and stronger GDP growth, according to the EY ITEM Club Budget preview.
Stronger than expected tax receipts should push down the OBR’s borrowing forecast for the current fiscal year by £3b to £65b. At the same time, the EY ITEM Club report says that better-than-expected momentum in the UK economy is likely to lead the OBR to revise its GDP forecast for this year upwards from 1.4% to 1.6% or 1.7%.
That last fact could be important. Macron needs to be able to say that only he can beat Le Pen.
Correct. One of the reasons for voting Macron was that he would beat Le Pen comfortably. Polling said 65-35 a week or so ago. That 30 point gap has almost been halved.
Not necessarily with AK47s; a knife and a camera in a church could do it.
Even a mass railway station grope could do it.
Then there's the effect in France of the coverage of the Dutch election. Depending on what actually happens, Le Pen could say "The people chose their candidate but the establishment is keeping him out office; don't let that happen in France". Who knows? She may even sweep it in the first round. There's also the effect of Britain's A50.
If EU reform is in the air...
Meanwhile, Macron says he will present his budgetary framework on Wednesday and his programme next Thursday. Can he really inspire people outside of the middle class?
Americans take out more insurance, higher NI for the middle-aged and more annuities not a new estates tax is the way forward and would be more politically acceptable
I'm guessing this "middle aged" tax will begin at 40 right after I've cleared the student loan ?
No, the higher NI would begin at 50 when not only the student loan but the mortgage starts to have been paid off and children begin to leave home, it then ends at 65-67 once you take your pension
So people who have paid little or nothing can leech off the back of people who have been paying a fortune all their lives. How very socialist. Stop NI and let people pay for their own medical care.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
That would be helpful for the UK
Much as I might enjoy the liberal gnashing of teeth and general garment rending, ensuing from a Le Pen victory, I cannot bring myself to wish it. I think she, personally (from my limited knowledge) might be an OK French president - better than the useless Hollande, for instance - but her party is still deeply infected with the quasi-Fascism and anti-Semitism of her father. And I reckon the French feel that too, so she will still probably lose (even though today I have had my first doubts)
But someone LIKE Le Pen or Wilders will win power in a serious European country quite soon*. Islamic immigration and non-integration makes this inevitable.
*PS I remember using those exact words about Trump - "Trump won't win, but someone LIKE him will become POTUS quite soon"
Hmmm......
I think Le Pen has a credible path to the Presidency: if Hamon or Melanchon comes second, then Le Pen stands a real chance in the second round.
That being said, it's still far from clear that is going to happen. My money is still on Fillon pipping Macron in the first round, and then ekeing out an unimpressive 55:45 win on low turnout.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
That would be helpful for the UK
Why?
We'd have a friendly negotiating partner.
In what conceivable world is Marine le Pen friendly to the UK?
I see Gareth Snell is moaning about a £100m deficit for Stoke's NHS Trust. A brief visit to Google throws up information about the scheme set up by Gordon Brown.
For balance, as ever - here's some more explanation of the Trumper mindset.
I get the distinct impression many liberal PBers prefer to just ignore or ridicule it - rather than understand it. If you don't understand your political rival's appeal, how can you rebut them?
Malc, are you seriously trying to use Wings as a rebuttal? Even by your standards that's rather weak...
Far better than the garbage right wing rags that Carlotta uses. Go ahead and rebut any of the information why don't you. That clown has been spouting his crap forever , a total right wing loser, aided and abetted by right wing toilet paper media.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
That would be helpful for the UK
Why?
We'd have a friendly negotiating partner.
In what conceivable world is Marine le Pen friendly to the UK?
There wouldn't be a united rEU-27, for a start.
The extent to which a Le Pen presidency would disrupt the EU would determine whether it would be in British interests or not. A total breakdown would not be; an end to the Franco-German-driven Project would.
I'd have thought it also unlikely that the Calais sore would be allowed to fester further. I doubt that migrants would want to travel via France at all.
A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.
France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.
Yes, but that is about the worst possible scenario from our point of view. It's going to be hard enough to get any kind of coherent deal with the EU27+EU Parliament as it is. The EU collapsing into political chaos - which it certainly would in the event of a Le Pen victory - would simply guarantee no deal at all, not to mention economic chaos amongst our biggest set of trading partners. This would be a very serious and damaging development for the UK.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
That would be helpful for the UK
Why?
We'd have a friendly negotiating partner.
In what conceivable world is Marine le Pen friendly to the UK?
A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.
France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.
Isn't it depressing? We're now looking at the havoc that the election of quasi-fascists will generate to help us with Brexit.
A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.
More likely paralysed and unable to pass an agreement. International deals always get demagogued each participant's local populists as traitorous sell-outs, so if everybody's scared of their local populists they won't be able to ratify anything.
Malc, are you seriously trying to use Wings as a rebuttal? Even by your standards that's rather weak...
Far better than the garbage right wing rags that Carlotta uses. Go ahead and rebut any of the information why don't you. That clown has been spouting his crap forever , a total right wing loser, aided and abetted by right wing toilet paper media.
Are you seriously suggesting that the Scottish Government's own figures are wrong?
No comment on the IRA supporting SNP candidate I note......
Those (probably most) who believe the next French President will be either Emmanuel Macron (best priced at 15/8 with Ladbrokes) or Francois Fillon (best priced at 3/1 with Betfair Sportsbook), might consider backing both staking 58.2% and 41.8% respectively, thereby achieving a 67% return over a two month period should either candidate emerge as the winner. DYOR.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
That would be helpful for the UK
Why?
We'd have a friendly negotiating partner.
In what conceivable world is Marine le Pen friendly to the UK?
A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.
France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.
The EU is over if MLP wins. There will be no deal to have as there will be nobody with whom to have it.
Asking for a friend who is writing a piece for a website.
The plural of 'dominatrix' is 'dominatrices' isn't it?
My phone says 'dominatrices' is wrong and it should be 'domiatrixes'
I think your phone is wrong.
It is. A rare mistake by apple.
I guess it shows what sheltered lives the geeks who work for apple lead. No real world experience to prevent such basic and catastrophic errors in the products.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
That would be helpful for the UK
Why?
We'd have a friendly negotiating partner.
In what conceivable world is Marine le Pen friendly to the UK?
A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.
France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.
The EU is over if MLP wins. There will be no deal to have as there will be nobody with whom to have it.
Let us wish her well then. We need the nation states of Europe to be strong and prosperous and to trade freely with each other. A superstate is not in the interests of any European citizen. Someone upthread called her a 'quasi Fascist'. Actually her economic agenda seems very protectionist / centralising / socialist to me. The FN look to me like the nasty far left. Not far right at all really.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
That would be helpful for the UK
Why?
We'd have a friendly negotiating partner.
In what conceivable world is Marine le Pen friendly to the UK?
A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.
France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.
The EU is over if MLP wins. There will be no deal to have as there will be nobody with whom to have it.
Let us wish her well then. We need the nation states of Europe to be strong and prosperous and to trade freely with each other. A superstate is not in the interests of any European citizen. Someone upthread called her a 'quasi Fascist'. Actually her economic agenda seems very protectionist / centralising / socialist to me. The FN look to me like the nasty far left. Not far right at all really.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
That would be helpful for the UK
Why?
We'd have a friendly negotiating partner.
In what conceivable world is Marine le Pen friendly to the UK?
A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.
France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.
The EU is over if MLP wins. There will be no deal to have as there will be nobody with whom to have it.
Let us wish her well then. We need the nation states of Europe to be strong and prosperous and to trade freely with each other. A superstate is not in the interests of any European citizen. Someone upthread called her a 'quasi Fascist'. Actually her economic agenda seems very protectionist / centralising / socialist to me. The FN look to me like the nasty far left. Not far right at all really.
Surely the nation states of Europe will be trading far less freely with each other if the EU is gone.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
That would be helpful for the UK
Why?
We'd have a friendly negotiating partner.
In what conceivable world is Marine le Pen friendly to the UK?
A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.
France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.
The EU is over if MLP wins. There will be no deal to have as there will be nobody with whom to have it.
Let us wish her well then. We need the nation states of Europe to be strong and prosperous and to trade freely with each other. A superstate is not in the interests of any European citizen. Someone upthread called her a 'quasi Fascist'. Actually her economic agenda seems very protectionist / centralising / socialist to me. The FN look to me like the nasty far left. Not far right at all really.
You think her economic policies are driving her support? It's a view I suppose. Certainly her social agenda doesn't appear particularly left wing to the casual observer.
A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.
France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.
Yes, but that is about the worst possible scenario from our point of view. It's going to be hard enough to get any kind of coherent deal with the EU27+EU Parliament as it is. The EU collapsing into political chaos - which it certainly would in the event of a Le Pen victory - would simply guarantee no deal at all, not to mention economic chaos amongst our biggest set of trading partners. This would be a very serious and damaging development for the UK.
I think PB Leavers are of the school of: it's not enough for me to succeed, my friends must fail.
Malc, are you seriously trying to use Wings as a rebuttal? Even by your standards that's rather weak...
Far better than the garbage right wing rags that Carlotta uses. Go ahead and rebut any of the information why don't you. That clown has been spouting his crap forever , a total right wing loser, aided and abetted by right wing toilet paper media.
Are you seriously suggesting that the Scottish Government's own figures are wrong?
No comment on the IRA supporting SNP candidate I note......
I am seriously suggesting that they can only use the tainted numbers supplied by London Tories , which everybody knows are a fantasy.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
That would be helpful for the UK
Why?
We'd have a friendly negotiating partner.
In what conceivable world is Marine le Pen friendly to the UK?
A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.
France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.
The EU is over if MLP wins. There will be no deal to have as there will be nobody with whom to have it.
Let us wish her well then. We need the nation states of Europe to be strong and prosperous and to trade freely with each other. A superstate is not in the interests of any European citizen. Someone upthread called her a 'quasi Fascist'. Actually her economic agenda seems very protectionist / centralising / socialist to me. The FN look to me like the nasty far left. Not far right at all really.
Certainly Macron has said the EU is dead if Le Pen wins, so most probably is global free trade for the time being after Brexit and Trump's win too
Malc, are you seriously trying to use Wings as a rebuttal? Even by your standards that's rather weak...
Far better than the garbage right wing rags that Carlotta uses. Go ahead and rebut any of the information why don't you. That clown has been spouting his crap forever , a total right wing loser, aided and abetted by right wing toilet paper media.
Are you seriously suggesting that the Scottish Government's own figures are wrong?
No comment on the IRA supporting SNP candidate I note......
I am seriously suggesting that they can only use the tainted numbers supplied by London Tories , which everybody knows are a fantasy.
The Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) web area provides information on the annually published GERS report. GERS is compiled by statisticians and economists in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser of the Scottish Government. The Scottish Government's Chief Statistician takes responsibility for this publication.
@macrocredit 2m2 minutes ago More FRANCE POLL: LE PEN 27%; MACRON 20%; FILLON 20% 1ST RND FILLON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 56%-44% IN 2ND RND MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 58%-42%
Fillon is likely to beat Macron, IMO.
Which means it will be Le Pen V Fillon
And Fillon only wins 56-44%???
Wow. Oh la la. That is close. For the first time ever, I reckon Le Pen could win this, and become POTFR.
Le Pen now just 3% behind Trump's vote last November against Macron and just 1% behind against Fillon
I get there are local circumstances that make pushing a message on the NHS particularly relevant for this seat, and I get most are not so mired in politics that they will be inundated with the same old messages all the time, but does the 'x days to save y' thing ever really work? Obviously it isn't enough sometimes, but it is tried so often I presume it must be effective more often than not, or is perceived to be at any rate.
A panicked, hysterical and disoriented EU - which is what a Le Pen victory would produce - would be a much weaker negotiating partner vis-a-vis the UK and Brexit, and, arguably, much easier to arm-twist and manipulate.
France would not be friendlier per se, but the EU would be immeasurably needier and wobblier.
Yes, but that is about the worst possible scenario from our point of view. It's going to be hard enough to get any kind of coherent deal with the EU27+EU Parliament as it is. The EU collapsing into political chaos - which it certainly would in the event of a Le Pen victory - would simply guarantee no deal at all, not to mention economic chaos amongst our biggest set of trading partners. This would be a very serious and damaging development for the UK.
I think PB Leavers are of the school of: it's not enough for me to succeed, my friends must fail.
The only way I can see it happening is the post Brexit UK experiences an economic slump, whilst the EU booms.
and without Greece blowing up into an unholy mess later in the year when the IMF walks away from the next bailout and the Germans are forced to follow suit.
How much does Greece owe to the IMF now?
If the IMF walks and Greece goes bust then that money is all lost. I would not rule out another big serving of fudge to keep the show on the road.
It will be another lesson in advanced can kicking.
Truly, the cradle of western civilization stil has much to teach us.
Americans take out more insurance, higher NI for the middle-aged and more annuities not a new estates tax is the way forward and would be more politically acceptable
I'm guessing this "middle aged" tax will begin at 40 right after I've cleared the student loan ?
No, the higher NI would begin at 50 when not only the student loan but the mortgage starts to have been paid off and children begin to leave home, it then ends at 65-67 once you take your pension
So people who have paid little or nothing can leech off the back of people who have been paying a fortune all their lives. How very socialist. Stop NI and let people pay for their own medical care.
No going forward everyone would pay for their social care through higher NI from the ages of 50 to 65, those older than 65 will still have made NI contributions just not at the higher rate
Comments
Gibraltar has impounded a Russian billionaire's superyacht - one of the world's biggest - because the German shipbuilder says he still owes 15.3m euros (£13.3m; $16.3m) in fees....
....The Gibraltar Port Authority says "most arrested ships are sold in a sealed-bids auction within six to eight weeks, once the claim has been proved and judgment given".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39026845
PB survey, who got on the Tories at the highest price? I'll open with 30 (but only beer money), did anyone take the 51 that @Morris_Dancer highlighted yesterday? Not that anyone here has ever had a 50/1 bet come in of course!
Amazon announces creation of
1500 jobs in France
2000 jobs in Germany
5000 jobs in UK
* the monarch meets individually with the vice-chair of the Council of State (the chair is the monarch himself), and with the chairs of both houses (one of whom is Muslim)
* then he meets individually with all party leaders
* then he appoints an informateur, usually from the plurality party but who is often a veteran and can be viewed as above the fray; he may also appoint more than one, each from a different party
* the informateur meets party leaders individually and chairs inter-party negotiations
* once there is an agreement in principle between parties who together have a majority, the monarch appoints a formateur who chairs meetings between those parties on the details of the government programme
If they do it your way that might be seen as upstaging the monarch.
Mr. Sandpit, to clarify (I think you know this but your post was slightly misleadingly worded and I wouldn't want undue credit) I didn't offer/mention that 51 tip. Someone else referred to a tweet from a political chap who cited it.
I've very fussy about my ties.
Don't even get me started on those dental floss skinny 'ties'
They aren't ties.
F1: di Resta remains reserve driver for Williams: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39025778
Wolff and Lauda sign new deals to stay at Mercedes until 2020:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39021867
https://twitter.com/UniofOxford/status/833621736084107265
He's at 4-5% probability according to the betting market.
I backed 64/1 Conservatives, but they have been matched a lot higher than that, and my overall book isn't looking too healthy!
Macron and Fillon still locked together on 20%. Le Pen up 1 to 27%
Most dramatic news on the poll is that Macron v Le Pen head to head is now down to 58-42
http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1
Million to one!!
"3 in Every 7 of Labour’s 2015 Voters Backing Brexit Would Not Vote Labour in 2016
YouGov’s polling data set includes 2015 general election vote, current general election voting intention, and current EU voting intention. That means we can look at the ebb and flow of each individuals’ support for each party since May 2015, and how that relates to their EU voting intention.
For Labour, this evidence should ring alarm bells. Those who voted Labour in 2015 split about 2:1 in favour of Remain over Leave. By early May 2016 that had risen to almost 3:1 for current Labour voters, thanks almost entirely to the desertion of former Labour voters backing Leave. In the sample, 42% of the 137 Leave supporters who voted Labour in 2015 would not back the party today and overall the number of current Labour voters backing Leave is 29% down on 2015."
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/29/guest-slot-polling-analysis-finds-labour-loses-supporters-of-brexit/
And there are moral considerations as well. Old-fashioned I know. But there you go.
What if Hamon and Mélenchon sort something out and one of them backs the other? Then Macron and especially Fillon: pff!
http://wingsoverscotland.com/an-auld-familiar-song/
Essex Police claimed greater awareness and confidence in the police response was the reason why 33 of the country’s 42 forces experienced the highest number of reports on record at the same time. A spokesman for the force said: “There is no evidence to suggest any increase has been specifically and directly caused by any one event or issue”.
“Hate crime is significantly under-reported and we believe that greater awareness and confidence in the police response has contributed to these increases in reporting.
http://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/15096877.Police_say_there_is__no_link__between_Brexit_and_a_41_per_cent_rise_in_hate_crime/?commentSort=newest
His remark has resulted in millions Googling 'Sweden rape'. Iain Martin made a very silly smug blunder against Paul Joseph Watson and got squished.
Trump's bully pulpit is setting the agenda.
Tax receipts in the critical month of January are out tomorrow.
As the Sun says.....
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/610589/one-simple-question-for-snp-economy-secretary-keith-brown-do-you-think-were-thick/
Even a mass railway station grope could do it.
Then there's the effect in France of the coverage of the Dutch election. Depending on what actually happens, Le Pen could say "The people chose their candidate but the establishment is keeping him out office; don't let that happen in France". Who knows? She may even sweep it in the first round. There's also the effect of Britain's A50.
If EU reform is in the air...
Meanwhile, Macron says he will present his budgetary framework on Wednesday and his programme next Thursday. Can he really inspire people outside of the middle class?
That being said, it's still far from clear that is going to happen. My money is still on Fillon pipping Macron in the first round, and then ekeing out an unimpressive 55:45 win on low turnout.
http://www.laing.com/news/69/27/John-Laing-and-Sodexho-announce-Financial-Close-on-N-Staffs-hospital-deal.html
I suppose that there could be similar problems for PFI schemes for Stoke's schools.
I get the distinct impression many liberal PBers prefer to just ignore or ridicule it - rather than understand it. If you don't understand your political rival's appeal, how can you rebut them?
https://youtu.be/3UUet_8HU8s
The extent to which a Le Pen presidency would disrupt the EU would determine whether it would be in British interests or not. A total breakdown would not be; an end to the Franco-German-driven Project would.
I'd have thought it also unlikely that the Calais sore would be allowed to fester further. I doubt that migrants would want to travel via France at all.
French Socialist candidate Hamon touts left unity on Portugal visit
French Left Weighs United Front Against Le Pen; Bonds Drop
Prices: Hamon 22, Mélenchon 85.
See https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/about/campuses/chinacampus.aspx
No comment on the IRA supporting SNP candidate I note......
The plural of 'dominatrix' is 'dominatrices' isn't it?
My phone says 'dominatrices' is wrong and it should be 'domiatrixes'
Which supported SINDY......last time.......
https://www.timeshighereducation.com/features/empires-and-allies/421485.article
Those (probably most) who believe the next French President will be either Emmanuel Macron (best priced at 15/8 with Ladbrokes) or Francois Fillon (best priced at 3/1 with Betfair Sportsbook), might consider backing both staking 58.2% and 41.8% respectively, thereby achieving a 67% return over a two month period should either candidate emerge as the winner.
DYOR.
Really, Mr Dancer?
Someone upthread called her a 'quasi Fascist'. Actually her economic agenda seems very protectionist / centralising / socialist to me. The FN look to me like the nasty far left. Not far right at all really.
http://www.memidex.com/dominatrices
http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS
According to the TES Manchester's been at it since 1992 in Hong Kong.....