On the 'politician to have a beer with' test, I think Boris usually comes out top over here IIRC. I don't think he was trusted to put up shelves or the like though.
Not trusted having dinner with your daughter, more likely!
Just thought I should say that. Sometimes PB needs a dose of positivity.
Well, I'm here to provide it.
Just ate a fabulous 28-aged rib eye from Sainsburys (cost: £7.50) and am now drinking a superb Damilano Barolo from Waitrose, £27.
That's not oligarch money. That's £35 or so for a truly fantastic dinner.
Life is getting better, for most people. Never forget that
Just ate like a king in Granada for 15 Euros, including a bottle of Rioja between 2
Fantastic meal for less than a fiver
Where?
London
Need the address, unless it's chez vous. Second thoughts, still need the address. And an invite!
Chez moi. But if you promise to be interesting you are welcome to the wilds of NW8 when you are in London
NW8?
You live in an.... 8?
UGH!
When in moments of great despair I console myself with the fact I have only lived in 1s.
My first student year UCL halls of residence; Ramsay, Fitzrovia, W1.
2nd year, horrible shared basement flat, but Montagu Sq, W1.
Third year, Nottingham Place, W1. Basement and grim, but W1.
At the end of the third year I lived in then desolate and deserted Wapping E1, followed by Thayer St and De Walden St, W1 for two years.
From then I lived in various squats and commandeered student digs, all along Gower Street, WC1, or Great Portland St, W1.
For almost a decade I lived in Barnsbury, N1.
Then I spent 5 years in Store St, WC1. Now I live in Delancey St, NW1.
Always the 1s! (apart from the time I was jailed in Wormwood Scrubs London W2998 or whatever, then Brixton prison, the only time I've been forced south of the river)
But I can PROUDLY say that, apart from the times when I was unjustly and involuntarily jailed for *allegedly* raping a beautiful Jewish princess, I have always lived in a 1. And I hope that epitaph goes on my gravestone.
NW8 is undoubtedly swankier than NW1, Charles is being modest with the postcode. It is St John's Wood. I believe Charles' house overlooks the park.
Nope. Sorry, it's an 8. Even St John's Wood.
8.
It's where Victorian husbands kept their mistresses in villas.
It's just.... 8.
SHUDDER
8!
I think I'll probably go to NW8 when I decide to make my way back from Zurich, or if I can afford it, Bloomsbury.
I just had my biggest bet on a football match...and it lost!
Quick check: was that your biggest bet ever (which just happened to be on a football match), or was it your biggest bet on a football match (tho you have had bigger bets on non-football related things)?
And while I'm here instead of watching X-Men:DOFP on Film4 like I should be doing, why were you betting on a football match? You're a professional gambler backed by a syndicate (if I remember correctly) who underwrite your predictions. Was football your area of interest?
I've had bigger bets (brexit/long term football) but this was the biggest in one match. It wasn't anything outrageous I am not a massive size gambler, I just bet a lot.
I bet on football for the syndicate, but this price was not available for them, so I had it myself. My cut of today's profit w them pays for the loss, but a bird in the hand and all that
I just had my biggest bet on a football match...and it lost!
Quick check: was that your biggest bet ever (which just happened to be on a football match), or was it your biggest bet on a football match (tho you have had bigger bets on non-football related things)?
And while I'm here instead of watching X-Men:DOFP on Film4 like I should be doing, why were you betting on a football match? You're a professional gambler backed by a syndicate (if I remember correctly) who underwrite your predictions. Was football your area of interest?
I've had bigger bets (brexit/long term football) but this was the biggest in one match. It wasn't anything outrageous I am not a massive size gambler, I just bet a lot.
I bet on football for the syndicate, but this price was not available for them, so I had it myself. My cut of today's profit w them pays for the loss, but a bird in the hand and all that
God, tell me about it...
I am so used to getting knocked back on bets that I couldn't believe they laid it, so I asked for the same again and they took it! The swine
I just had my biggest bet on a football match...and it lost!
Quick check: was that your biggest bet ever (which just happened to be on a football match), or was it your biggest bet on a football match (tho you have had bigger bets on non-football related things)?
And while I'm here instead of watching X-Men:DOFP on Film4 like I should be doing, why were you betting on a football match? You're a professional gambler backed by a syndicate (if I remember correctly) who underwrite your predictions. Was football your area of interest?
I've had bigger bets (brexit/long term football) but this was the biggest in one match. It wasn't anything outrageous I am not a massive size gambler, I just bet a lot.
I bet on football for the syndicate, but this price was not available for them, so I had it myself. My cut of today's profit w them pays for the loss, but a bird in the hand and all that
More money for UKIP in Nottingham over the weekend. Going to be some burnt fingers somewhere. I read somewhere that one well known punter made Labour a 2/5 shot and I'd imagine filled his boots but they're drifting a little again now. Weird move for the Tories as well today.
the left wing are getting really smug and complacement, makes me think UKIP are going to win.
Did you mean to say this in response to my prediction, rather than that tweet? Because, while you might think those signs are rude or obnoxious, I don't really see that either can be described as "complacent" (the people who wrote the signs aren't giving any view on whether UKIP can win, they're just saying they personally hate them).
I just had my biggest bet on a football match...and it lost!
Quick check: was that your biggest bet ever (which just happened to be on a football match), or was it your biggest bet on a football match (tho you have had bigger bets on non-football related things)?
And while I'm here instead of watching X-Men:DOFP on Film4 like I should be doing, why were you betting on a football match? You're a professional gambler backed by a syndicate (if I remember correctly) who underwrite your predictions. Was football your area of interest?
I've had bigger bets (brexit/long term football) but this was the biggest in one match. It wasn't anything outrageous I am not a massive size gambler, I just bet a lot.
I bet on football for the syndicate, but this price was not available for them, so I had it myself. My cut of today's profit w them pays for the loss, but a bird in the hand and all that
God, tell me about it...
I am so used to getting knocked back on bets that I couldn't believe they laid it, so I asked for the same again and they took it! The swine
Of course he's now down for the night and whining a bit - but we'all be strong now for future benefit for all of us.
LOL. Our last pup was a shepherd who flew in from Seattle to Maryland. He yowled all the way, apparently, and only stopped once we got home and let him out. Then he started up again as soon as we put him in his crate for the night. That lasted 3 nights. No matter how wonderful he was during the days, I was about to wring his little neck. Then on the fourth night, there was sleep!
We are never lonely in our place. Two shepherds (a boy and a girl, neither with any concept of personal space) and a little Irish Jack.
A hot water bottle and a clock that ticks, wrapped in a towel and put in with the pup as you put them down for the night works, I'm told. The clock reminds them of the regular heartbeat of their mother, the heat from the water bottle reminds them of their warmth.....and quietens them down.
Stoke on Trent Labour 44% +5% UKIP 22% -1% Conservatives 12% -11% Lib Dems 11% +7%
Not expecting the LDs to recover to pre-2015 levels in Copeland, or assuming any such recovery will be minimised by such recovered voters going Labour to ensure any seepage from Corbyn does not result in a Tory gain?
Germany's center-left Social Democrats (SPD) have moved ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) in an opinion poll by the Emnid institute for the first time since 2006, Bild am Sonntag newspaper said.
The SPD's unexpected surge of some 12 points in the last month has caught Merkel and her conservatives off guard, analysts said, just seven months before the Sept. 24 election, where she had expected to win a fourth term easily.
The Emnid poll of 1,885 voters gave the SPD 33 percent of the vote, up 1 point in the last week, while the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) would win 32 percent, down 1 point.
Germany's center-left Social Democrats (SPD) have moved ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) in an opinion poll by the Emnid institute for the first time since 2006, Bild am Sonntag newspaper said.
The SPD's unexpected surge of some 12 points in the last month has caught Merkel and her conservatives off guard, analysts said, just seven months before the Sept. 24 election, where she had expected to win a fourth term easily.
The Emnid poll of 1,885 voters gave the SPD 33 percent of the vote, up 1 point in the last week, while the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) would win 32 percent, down 1 point.
At one point it was, apparently, £6 at Morrisons. I jest you not.
It would be £20 if it was Aussie, or SA, and £25 if it was Italian. France fuck knows.
You can blame Brexit for that. The decline of the pound.
No, I think they just sold out. It happens with great and relatively underpriced wines.
Horrible news: I see you can only get 43 Bahts to the pound now compared to about 55 a couple of years ago.
Yes, it's pricier. But then central Bangkok has been close to London prices for years, now.
Take my advice. And on this subject I know whereof I speak, like nothing else. Stay at the Dynasty Grande. It's 30 mins from the airport yet right in the middle of all the action you want: restaurants, bars, sports bars, girls, boys, ladyboys, shopping, dodgy pharmacies, and 2 mins from a skytrain station.
Massive swimming pool. Great gym. It's just perfect
What they lack is a decent restaurant but they do this deliberately, because they know they are surrounded by great restaurants, which all deliver, and all do takeaway. So they charge less for their rooms on that asis, and don't even bother with breakfast.
It is brilliant.
It is literally my favourite hotel in the world. 3 stars. I have introduced dozens of pals to it, and they now all swear by it. Forget the Four Seasons shit, Bangkok isn't made for that
Stoke on Trent Labour 44% +5% UKIP 22% -1% Conservatives 12% -11% Lib Dems 11% +7%
Not expecting the LDs to recover to pre-2015 levels in Copeland, or assuming any such recovery will be minimised by such recovered voters going Labour to ensure any seepage from Corbyn does not result in a Tory gain?
Looking at byelections over the past 30 years, even when the Lib Dems are doing very well in the national polls, they still tend to get squeezed heavily by tactical votes when it's a competitive Labour-Conservative byelection.
Stoke on Trent Labour 44% +5% UKIP 22% -1% Conservatives 12% -11% Lib Dems 11% +7%
Not expecting the LDs to recover to pre-2015 levels in Copeland, or assuming any such recovery will be minimised by such recovered voters going Labour to ensure any seepage from Corbyn does not result in a Tory gain?
Looking at byelections over the past 30 years, even when the Lib Dems are doing very well in the national polls, they still tend to get squeezed heavily by tactical votes when it's a competitive Labour-Conservative byelection.
I agree. I cannot see many Copeland LibDems disliking Gill Troughton, or risking Nuttall getting in in Stoke.
Stoke on Trent Labour 44% +5% UKIP 22% -1% Conservatives 12% -11% Lib Dems 11% +7%
Not expecting the LDs to recover to pre-2015 levels in Copeland, or assuming any such recovery will be minimised by such recovered voters going Labour to ensure any seepage from Corbyn does not result in a Tory gain?
Looking at byelections over the past 30 years, even when the Lib Dems are doing very well in the national polls, they still tend to get squeezed heavily by tactical votes when it's a competitive Labour-Conservative byelection.
There is only 3 percent to squeeze from 2015.... I think Labour may win but the Lib Dems will do a bit better than you predict and take some Remain support from the Tories and anti-Corbyn from Labour.
I agree. I cannot see many Copeland LibDems disliking Gill Troughton, or risking Nuttall getting in in Stoke.
Yes, I think the apparrently serious LibDem effort in some wards in Stoke is actually disreputable - they know perfectly well they're not going to win, but they might split the non-UKIP vote enough to let Nuttall in. It's made me less willing to do a bit of quiet tactical LD voting if the occasion ever arose when it might have made sense.
I agree. I cannot see many Copeland LibDems disliking Gill Troughton, or risking Nuttall getting in in Stoke.
Yes, I think the apparrently serious LibDem effort in some wards in Stoke is actually disreputable - they know perfectly well they're not going to win, but they might split the non-UKIP vote enough to let Nuttall in. It's made me less willing to do a bit of quiet tactical LD voting if the occasion ever arose when it might have made sense.
I see the logic in your final sentence, but your first is just baffling to me. I can you how you, labour and even many lib dems might find a serious effort which contributes to a nuttall win to be self defeating, generally a bad idea and definitely boding poorly for any official or unofficial cooperation or tactical support elsewhere, but disreputable?
An entirely separate party campaigning hard even knowing they won't win because they want people to support them, what's disreputable about that? It's first past the post, and voters will be told by labour if you vote LD you risk getting ukip, if the voters allow that to happen the problem is not disreputable behaviour from a group which has no labour allegiance, the problem is the voters were prepared to risk a ukip gain rather than vote labour.
Stoke on Trent Labour 44% +5% UKIP 22% -1% Conservatives 12% -11% Lib Dems 11% +7%
Not expecting the LDs to recover to pre-2015 levels in Copeland, or assuming any such recovery will be minimised by such recovered voters going Labour to ensure any seepage from Corbyn does not result in a Tory gain?
Looking at byelections over the past 30 years, even when the Lib Dems are doing very well in the national polls, they still tend to get squeezed heavily by tactical votes when it's a competitive Labour-Conservative byelection.
There is only 3 percent to squeeze from 2015.... I think Labour may win but the Lib Dems will do a bit better than you predict and take some Remain support from the Tories and anti-Corbyn from Labour.
There are effectively no Lib Dems to squeeze in Stoke either. They'll surely rise to Labour's detriment, the question is whether Labour can limit it so that it isn't significant.
If Labour win in Stoke on Trent Central, I think it'd largely be due to UKIP failing to make any inroads into the Tory vote.
I think Wes Streeting could win by 5,000 votes in Ilford North next time regardless of the national situation, due to fast-changing demographics in that part of north-east London.
Unless the boundary review falls, its academic, as you will never be proved right, or wrong. Wherever the wards fall, there will be a safe labour seat that emerges from a chunk of Redbridge, which Streeting will fight after Gapes retires.
I think Wes Streeting could win by 5,000 votes in Ilford North next time regardless of the national situation, due to fast-changing demographics in that part of north-east London.
Unless the boundary review falls, its academic, as you will never be proved right, or wrong. Wherever the wards fall, there will be a safe labour seat that emerges from a chunk of Redbridge, which Streeting will fight after Gapes retires.
That's a pretty big "unless", since the boundary review passing would involve numerous Tory MPs voting themselves into redundancy.
I think Wes Streeting could win by 5,000 votes in Ilford North next time regardless of the national situation, due to fast-changing demographics in that part of north-east London.
Unless the boundary review falls, its academic, as you will never be proved right, or wrong. Wherever the wards fall, there will be a safe labour seat that emerges from a chunk of Redbridge, which Streeting will fight after Gapes retires.
Do you have a problem with me? Every time I post a comment you have to reply in a snide way.
I agree. I cannot see many Copeland LibDems disliking Gill Troughton, or risking Nuttall getting in in Stoke.
Yes, I think the apparrently serious LibDem effort in some wards in Stoke is actually disreputable - they know perfectly well they're not going to win, but they might split the non-UKIP vote enough to let Nuttall in. It's made me less willing to do a bit of quiet tactical LD voting if the occasion ever arose when it might have made sense.
I see the logic in your final sentence, but your first is just baffling to me. I can you how you, labour and even many lib dems might find a serious effort which contributes to a nuttall win to be self defeating, generally a bad idea and definitely boding poorly for any official or unofficial cooperation or tactical support elsewhere, but disreputable?
An entirely separate party campaigning hard even knowing they won't win because they want people to support them, what's disreputable about that? It's first past the post, and voters will be told by labour if you vote LD you risk getting ukip, if the voters allow that to happen the problem is not disreputable behaviour from a group which has no labour allegiance, the problem is the voters were prepared to risk a ukip gain rather than vote labour.
I agree.
A comment like that from the normally level headed and polite Mr Palmer indicates how much pressure the Corbyn loyalists are under. Of course it's not disreputable for the lib dems to campaign in a B/E. And it won't be the Lib dems fault if labour loses stoke.
Anyway, my takeaway is there's going to be fireworks shortly after 10pm next Thursday if Labour lose in their heartlands.
Of course he's now down for the night and whining a bit - but we'all be strong now for future benefit for all of us.
LOL. Our last pup was a shepherd who flew in from Seattle to Maryland. He yowled all the way, apparently, and only stopped once we got home and let him out. Then he started up again as soon as we put him in his crate for the night. That lasted 3 nights. No matter how wonderful he was during the days, I was about to wring his little neck. Then on the fourth night, there was sleep!
We are never lonely in our place. Two shepherds (a boy and a girl, neither with any concept of personal space) and a little Irish Jack.
A hot water bottle and a clock that ticks, wrapped in a towel and put in with the pup as you put them down for the night works, I'm told. The clock reminds them of the regular heartbeat of their mother, the heat from the water bottle reminds them of their warmth.....and quietens them down.
We left an old sweater with Holly our border collie for a few days before we collected her as a pup. We then popped it in with her bedding in her dog cage when we settled her down on her first night with us, and much to our surprise she settled overnight really well with no signs of noise of distress at being left alone. It was about three nights later when I had to pop back into the room for something that we realised that as soon as we settled her, our persian cat Leo then popped into the cage and curled up to sleep beside her. Leo insisted on sleeping with Holly until it was time to let her have the run of the house.
We sadly and very suddenly lost Holly the collie at 12 years old just before Christmas. It was a hell of a shock as she was still a very active dog right up until the end, and she had been fine at her annual MOT at the vets just a few months before that.
Stoke on Trent Labour 44% +5% UKIP 22% -1% Conservatives 12% -11% Lib Dems 11% +7%
Not expecting the LDs to recover to pre-2015 levels in Copeland, or assuming any such recovery will be minimised by such recovered voters going Labour to ensure any seepage from Corbyn does not result in a Tory gain?
Looking at byelections over the past 30 years, even when the Lib Dems are doing very well in the national polls, they still tend to get squeezed heavily by tactical votes when it's a competitive Labour-Conservative byelection.
I agree. I cannot see many Copeland LibDems disliking Gill Troughton, or risking Nuttall getting in in Stoke.
You realise that she's virtually as much a fantasist as Nuttal? " I'm a doctor, I trained as a surgeon and I've worked all my life in the NHS".
There is a report in the NY Times concerning a proposal concerning Russia and the Ukraine. reportedly put on the desk of Mike Flynn before his departure. The paper's writers were Michael Cohen, Trump legal counsel (and reportedly subject to FBI FISA investigations) and one Felix Sater, a name I mentioned months ago on here.
This could just be another story adding weight to the odd associations of the Trump White House, or the establishment of another thread to the wider story of Trump and associates being bought by the Kremlin. Sater is a figure Trump claims he didn't know very much, linked to the Russian mob, felon and Trump Tower tenant at one time.
This leak doesn't make sense as a standalone story. The other curiosity is how a paper for Mike Flynn got out. It wasn't designed to circulate.
I agree. I cannot see many Copeland LibDems disliking Gill Troughton, or risking Nuttall getting in in Stoke.
Yes, I think the apparrently serious LibDem effort in some wards in Stoke is actually disreputable - they know perfectly well they're not going to win, but they might split the non-UKIP vote enough to let Nuttall in. It's made me less willing to do a bit of quiet tactical LD voting if the occasion ever arose when it might have made sense.
Stoke on Trent Labour 44% +5% UKIP 22% -1% Conservatives 12% -11% Lib Dems 11% +7%
Not expecting the LDs to recover to pre-2015 levels in Copeland, or assuming any such recovery will be minimised by such recovered voters going Labour to ensure any seepage from Corbyn does not result in a Tory gain?
Prediction for stoke:
Ukip 38%
Labour 37%
Libdem 10%
Con 8%
Copeland is harder to predict because tories should take it on current polling but in real votes they are not preforming.
Stoke on Trent Labour 44% +5% UKIP 22% -1% Conservatives 12% -11% Lib Dems 11% +7%
Not expecting the LDs to recover to pre-2015 levels in Copeland, or assuming any such recovery will be minimised by such recovered voters going Labour to ensure any seepage from Corbyn does not result in a Tory gain?
Prediction for stoke:
Ukip 38%
Labour 37%
Libdem 10%
Con 8%
Copeland is harder to predict because tories should take it on current polling but in real votes they are not preforming.
Very unlikely IMO. Tories just don't tactically vote.
Stoke on Trent Labour 44% +5% UKIP 22% -1% Conservatives 12% -11% Lib Dems 11% +7%
Not expecting the LDs to recover to pre-2015 levels in Copeland, or assuming any such recovery will be minimised by such recovered voters going Labour to ensure any seepage from Corbyn does not result in a Tory gain?
Prediction for stoke:
Ukip 38%
Labour 37%
Libdem 10%
Con 8%
Copeland is harder to predict because tories should take it on current polling but in real votes they are not preforming.
Very unlikely IMO. Tories just don't tactically vote.
Tories do vote tactically ! That is how Simon Hughes held on to Bermondsey for so long and how Rochdale stayed LibDem for many years. Also plenty of evidence of tactical voting for the SNP over the years - even though that has been reversed more recently.
Stoke on Trent Labour 44% +5% UKIP 22% -1% Conservatives 12% -11% Lib Dems 11% +7%
Not expecting the LDs to recover to pre-2015 levels in Copeland, or assuming any such recovery will be minimised by such recovered voters going Labour to ensure any seepage from Corbyn does not result in a Tory gain?
Prediction for stoke:
Ukip 38%
Labour 37%
Libdem 10%
Con 8%
Copeland is harder to predict because tories should take it on current polling but in real votes they are not preforming.
Very unlikely IMO. Tories just don't tactically vote.
they did for Nick Clegg when it was clear it was a two horse race. i think they wil for this one as every media outlet is saying it is between Labour and UkIP.
There is a report in the NY Times concerning a proposal concerning Russia and the Ukraine. reportedly put on the desk of Mike Flynn before his departure. The paper's writers were Michael Cohen, Trump legal counsel (and reportedly subject to FBI FISA investigations) and one Felix Sater, a name I mentioned months ago on here.
This could just be another story adding weight to the odd associations of the Trump White House, or the establishment of another thread to the wider story of Trump and associates being bought by the Kremlin. Sater is a figure Trump claims he didn't know very much, linked to the Russian mob, felon and Trump Tower tenant at one time.
This leak doesn't make sense as a standalone story. The other curiosity is how a paper for Mike Flynn got out. It wasn't designed to circulate.
How worring is it some top talent don't want to be Trump's National Security Advisor and other key intelligence posts.
I agree. I cannot see many Copeland LibDems disliking Gill Troughton, or risking Nuttall getting in in Stoke.
Yes, I think the apparrently serious LibDem effort in some wards in Stoke is actually disreputable - they know perfectly well they're not going to win, but they might split the non-UKIP vote enough to let Nuttall in. It's made me less willing to do a bit of quiet tactical LD voting if the occasion ever arose when it might have made sense.
Lib Dems - know your place
or - horseshit - you choose .
TBF Labour seem to have soft-pedalled in Richmond to the LibDems' benefit, so it's not unreasonably entitled to hope they'll reciprocate.
There's a practical problem with the old liberal-left alliance though, in that although the LibDems share a view on Brexit etc with most Labour activists, it's not really clear what side Corbyn is on.
There is a report in the NY Times concerning a proposal concerning Russia and the Ukraine. reportedly put on the desk of Mike Flynn before his departure. The paper's writers were Michael Cohen, Trump legal counsel (and reportedly subject to FBI FISA investigations) and one Felix Sater, a name I mentioned months ago on here.
This could just be another story adding weight to the odd associations of the Trump White House, or the establishment of another thread to the wider story of Trump and associates being bought by the Kremlin. Sater is a figure Trump claims he didn't know very much, linked to the Russian mob, felon and Trump Tower tenant at one time.
This leak doesn't make sense as a standalone story. The other curiosity is how a paper for Mike Flynn got out. It wasn't designed to circulate.
The Rolling polls from Friday (both showing Fillon and Macron tied for 2nd place and beating Le pen easily on the 2d round) are finally having an impact on Betfair prices.
There is some convergence in the price of the three big candidates: - Macron was around 2.5 last week, is now 2.82 - Le Pen is stable around 3.5/3.6 - Fillon's price came down from 5.5 last week to 3.82 now.
The trend could continue, especially if one poll puts Fillon alone in second place.
Stoke on Trent Labour 44% +5% UKIP 22% -1% Conservatives 12% -11% Lib Dems 11% +7%
Not expecting the LDs to recover to pre-2015 levels in Copeland, or assuming any such recovery will be minimised by such recovered voters going Labour to ensure any seepage from Corbyn does not result in a Tory gain?
Prediction for stoke:
Ukip 38%
Labour 37%
Libdem 10%
Con 8%
Copeland is harder to predict because tories should take it on current polling but in real votes they are not preforming.
Very unlikely IMO. Tories just don't tactically vote.
Tories do vote tactically ! That is how Simon Hughes held on to Bermondsey for so long and how Rochdale stayed LibDem for many years. Also plenty of evidence of tactical voting for the SNP over the years - even though that has been reversed more recently.
Agree with you when it comes to Scottish Conservatives voting tactically under the different voting systems in Scottish elections.
I agree. I cannot see many Copeland LibDems disliking Gill Troughton, or risking Nuttall getting in in Stoke.
Yes, I think the apparrently serious LibDem effort in some wards in Stoke is actually disreputable - they know perfectly well they're not going to win, but they might split the non-UKIP vote enough to let Nuttall in. It's made me less willing to do a bit of quiet tactical LD voting if the occasion ever arose when it might have made sense.
Lib Dems - know your place
or - horseshit - you choose .
TBF Labour seem to have soft-pedalled in Richmond to the LibDems' benefit, so it's not unreasonably entitled to hope they'll reciprocate.
There's a practical problem with the old liberal-left alliance though, in that although the LibDems share a view on Brexit etc with most Labour activists, it's not really clear what side Corbyn is on.
But how far apart politically are London Labour/Libdem voters in Richmond compared to their counterparts in Stoke?
The Rolling polls from Friday (both showing Fillon and Macron tied for 2nd place and beating Le pen easily on the 2d round) are finally having an impact on Betfair prices.
There is some convergence in the price of the three big candidates: - Macron was around 2.5 last week, is now 2.82 - Le Pen is stable around 3.5/3.6 - Fillon's price came down from 5.5 last week to 3.82 now.
The trend could continue, especially if one poll puts Fillon alone in second place.
Think we could get that in one if not both of the rolling polls tomorrow. well later mtoday actually.
Comments
Copeland
Labour 44% +2%
Conservatives 35% -1%
UKIP 11% -5%
Lib Dems 6% +2%
Stoke on Trent
Labour 44% +5%
UKIP 22% -1%
Conservatives 12% -11%
Lib Dems 11% +7%
Germany's center-left Social Democrats (SPD) have moved ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) in an opinion poll by the Emnid institute for the first time since 2006, Bild am Sonntag newspaper said.
The SPD's unexpected surge of some 12 points in the last month has caught Merkel and her conservatives off guard, analysts said, just seven months before the Sept. 24 election, where she had expected to win a fourth term easily.
The Emnid poll of 1,885 voters gave the SPD 33 percent of the vote, up 1 point in the last week, while the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) would win 32 percent, down 1 point.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-election-poll-idUSKBN15Y0FS?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=58aa24a304d3015e97c4f113&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-false-hillsborough-claim-on-paul-nuttalls-website-is-cos?sub=4468025_10545648
And Copeland too.
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/0e6c40c04205650dec8d21c22024edcfe0e39c50/0_0_2693_1819/master/2693.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=b3e4bacff79a66fdf2b686b49537eeae
The fact it contains possibly the worst pun/image in PB history had no influence on it. I went where the polling took me.
Possibly she means the person posting it, or those gleefully retweeting it?
I see Shadsy has decreased his UKIP under 20% to 6/1, but still value methinks.
An entirely separate party campaigning hard even knowing they won't win because they want people to support them, what's disreputable about that? It's first past the post, and voters will be told by labour if you vote LD you risk getting ukip, if the voters allow that to happen the problem is not disreputable behaviour from a group which has no labour allegiance, the problem is the voters were prepared to risk a ukip gain rather than vote labour.
If Labour win in Stoke on Trent Central, I think it'd largely be due to UKIP failing to make any inroads into the Tory vote.
A comment like that from the normally level headed and polite Mr Palmer indicates how much pressure the Corbyn loyalists are under. Of course it's not disreputable for the lib dems to campaign in a B/E. And it won't be the Lib dems fault if labour loses stoke.
Anyway, my takeaway is there's going to be fireworks shortly after 10pm next Thursday if Labour lose in their heartlands.
I think they'll win, though.
We sadly and very suddenly lost Holly the collie at 12 years old just before Christmas. It was a hell of a shock as she was still a very active dog right up until the end, and she had been fine at her annual MOT at the vets just a few months before that.
This could just be another story adding weight to the odd associations of the Trump White House, or the establishment of another thread to the wider story of Trump and associates being bought by the Kremlin. Sater is a figure Trump claims he didn't know very much, linked to the Russian mob, felon and Trump Tower tenant at one time.
This leak doesn't make sense as a standalone story. The other curiosity is how a paper for Mike Flynn got out. It wasn't designed to circulate.
or - horseshit - you choose .
Ukip 38%
Labour 37%
Libdem 10%
Con 8%
Copeland is harder to predict because tories should take it on current polling but in real votes they are not preforming.
There's a practical problem with the old liberal-left alliance though, in that although the LibDems share a view on Brexit etc with most Labour activists, it's not really clear what side Corbyn is on.
Is this guy legit in your opinion?
https://twitter.com/Khanoisseur
The Rolling polls from Friday (both showing Fillon and Macron tied for 2nd place and beating Le pen easily on the 2d round) are finally having an impact on Betfair prices.
There is some convergence in the price of the three big candidates:
- Macron was around 2.5 last week, is now 2.82
- Le Pen is stable around 3.5/3.6
- Fillon's price came down from 5.5 last week to 3.82 now.
The trend could continue, especially if one poll puts Fillon alone in second place.