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SystemSystem Posts: 11,705
edited February 2017 in General
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  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075
    edited February 2017
    Thirst.

    I still think that there will be two Labour holds. Corbyn would probably survive losing in Copeland, but losing in Stoke as well would make his tenure increasingly difficult.

    In fact, I think it'll be worse for Corbyn if they lost to UKIP than if they lost to the Conservatives. It'll make many in Labour finally realise there's a threat from many sides, and not just the Conservatives.
  • Options
    FPT:
    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    Reading yesterday's threads and seeing SeanT say that he wants white supremacy back.

    Well, it never went away.

    This isn't the first time on this site I've actively seen PBers advocate a white supremacy though....hmmm.....

    If there has to be a global hegemon, and history indicates those are the times of greatest peace and prosperity, yes I would prefer it to be us. The Brits. Who would you prefer? The Mongols?
    Well yeah, the peace and prosperity was great - for white people. As the granddaughter of Jamaican immigrants on my mother's side, I do not pine for Jamacia to be recolonised. I do not exclusively associate success and prosperity with whiteness. As a mixed kid, it would be odd too.
    Last I heard Jamaican's regret independence,

    http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110628/lead/lead1.html

    Your grandparents made a wise decision.
    No they didn't because they don't exist.

    Mixed race teenage girl; my arse.

    He's a lorry driver from Grimsby on an epic troll.
    I'm not a teenager for a start. I'm 23.

    And your the one questioning my validity when YOU'RE the weirdo googling whether Michelle Obama is a man?

    The nerve....
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075
    Off-topic:

    There might be a rocket launching and landing in a few minutes. It can be watched at:
    http://www.spacex.com/webcast

    ... or the flight could be scrubbed at t-13 seconds, as it was yesterday... :(
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Off-topic:

    There might be a rocket launching and landing in a few minutes. It can be watched at:
    http://www.spacex.com/webcast

    ... or the flight could be scrubbed at t-13 seconds, as it was yesterday... :(

    Always get so nervous before a launch, Elon himself made the scrub call yesterday btw.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Pulpstar said:

    Off-topic:

    There might be a rocket launching and landing in a few minutes. It can be watched at:
    http://www.spacex.com/webcast

    ... or the flight could be scrubbed at t-13 seconds, as it was yesterday... :(

    Always get so nervous before a launch, Elon himself made the scrub call yesterday btw.
    Nothing exploded, and disappeared from view in the clouds. Looking good. Second stage ok too.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    I'm with Jossias, two Labour holds.

    However, by far the most striking finding in my opinion is that 68% agree that ‘immigration places too much pressure on public services like housing and the NHS’. For me, this finding represents the untold story of the Brexit vote last June. It is my view that the perception, right or wrong, that immigration places an unreasonable burden on public services is what turns a relatively niche right-wing issue into something to cuts through with the majority of the public

    That's an untold story?! I don't have any issue with migration myself, but it has been clear for some years that, correct or not, the levels had gotten too high as far as politics was concerned because of the public perception.

    FPT:

    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    Reading yesterday's threads and seeing SeanT say that he wants white supremacy back.

    Well, it never went away.

    This isn't the first time on this site I've actively seen PBers advocate a white supremacy though....hmmm.....

    If there has to be a global hegemon, and history indicates those are the times of greatest peace and prosperity, yes I would prefer it to be us. The Brits. Who would you prefer? The Mongols?
    Well yeah, the peace and prosperity was great - for white people. As the granddaughter of Jamaican immigrants on my mother's side, I do not pine for Jamacia to be recolonised. I do not exclusively associate success and prosperity with whiteness. As a mixed kid, it would be odd too.
    Last I heard Jamaican's regret independence,

    http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110628/lead/lead1.html

    Your grandparents made a wise decision.
    No they didn't because they don't exist.

    Mixed race teenage girl; my arse.

    He's a lorry driver from Grimsby on an epic troll.
    I'm not a teenager for a start. I'm 23.

    And your the one questioning my validity when YOU'RE the weirdo googling whether Michelle Obama is a man?

    The nerve....
    Frankly I don't know why you'd put so much effort into such trolling in the first place.

    I, however, am actually a team of users working in tandem, hence the username, and this accounts for any inconsistencies in my views. And if I say something stupid, it was one of the the ones from another shift.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075
    Pulpstar said:

    Off-topic:

    There might be a rocket launching and landing in a few minutes. It can be watched at:
    http://www.spacex.com/webcast

    ... or the flight could be scrubbed at t-13 seconds, as it was yesterday... :(

    Always get so nervous before a launch, Elon himself made the scrub call yesterday btw.
    So do I. I'm not Musk's biggest fan, but I like what he's trying to do with SpaceX.

    Now to see if they can get a second landing on land ...

    BTW, can you imagine what it'll be like when they have the two boosters from a F9 Heavy landing back on land? I so want to see that.
  • Options
    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Thirst.

    I still think that there will be two Labour holds. Corbyn would probably survive losing in Copeland, but losing in Stoke as well would make his tenure increasingly difficult.

    In fact, I think it'll be worse for Corbyn if they lost to UKIP than if they lost to the Conservatives. It'll make many in Labour finally realise there's a threat from many sides, and not just the Conservatives.

    Agreed. 2 Labour holds likely. Low turnout is Labour's only fear.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Off-topic:

    There might be a rocket launching and landing in a few minutes. It can be watched at:
    http://www.spacex.com/webcast

    ... or the flight could be scrubbed at t-13 seconds, as it was yesterday... :(

    Always get so nervous before a launch, Elon himself made the scrub call yesterday btw.
    Nothing exploded, and disappeared from view in the clouds. Looking good. Second stage ok too.
    Stage 1 landed. That was pretty f*cking cool.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075
    And it's down!

    Woohoo!
  • Options
    A British actor managing to do I think the worst British accent I have ever heard....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ve68mGiR_cU
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,063
    kle4 said:

    I'm with Jossias, two Labour holds.

    However, by far the most striking finding in my opinion is that 68% agree that ‘immigration places too much pressure on public services like housing and the NHS’. For me, this finding represents the untold story of the Brexit vote last June. It is my view that the perception, right or wrong, that immigration places an unreasonable burden on public services is what turns a relatively niche right-wing issue into something to cuts through with the majority of the public

    That's an untold story?! I don't have any issue with migration myself, but it has been clear for some years that, correct or not, the levels had gotten too high as far as politics was concerned because of the public perception.

    FPT:

    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    Reading yesterday's threads and seeing SeanT say that he wants white supremacy back.

    Well, it never went away.

    This isn't the first time on this site I've actively seen PBers advocate a white supremacy though....hmmm.....

    If there has to be a global hegemon, and history indicates those are the times of greatest peace and prosperity, yes I would prefer it to be us. The Brits. Who would you prefer? The Mongols?
    Well yeah, the peace and prosperity was great - for white people. As the granddaughter of Jamaican immigrants on my mother's side, I do not pine for Jamacia to be recolonised. I do not exclusively associate success and prosperity with whiteness. As a mixed kid, it would be odd too.
    Last I heard Jamaican's regret independence,

    http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110628/lead/lead1.html

    Your grandparents made a wise decision.
    No they didn't because they don't exist.

    Mixed race teenage girl; my arse.

    He's a lorry driver from Grimsby on an epic troll.
    I'm not a teenager for a start. I'm 23.

    And your the one questioning my validity when YOU'RE the weirdo googling whether Michelle Obama is a man?

    The nerve....
    Frankly I don't know why you'd put so much effort into such trolling in the first place.

    I, however, am actually a team of users working in tandem, hence the username, and this accounts for any inconsistencies in my views. And if I say something stupid, it was one of the the ones from another shift.
    I wish you’d get a leftie into the team. That really would cause confusion!
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    kle4 said:

    However, by far the most striking finding in my opinion is that 68% agree that ‘immigration places too much pressure on public services like housing and the NHS’. For me, this finding represents the untold story of the Brexit vote last June. It is my view that the perception, right or wrong, that immigration places an unreasonable burden on public services is what turns a relatively niche right-wing issue into something to cuts through with the majority of the public

    That's an untold story?! I don't have any issue with migration myself, but it has been clear for some years that, correct or not, the levels had gotten too high as far as politics was concerned because of the public perception.

    It is an untold story if you are/were a member of the Labour Party as Keiran is/was. Only now are some people waking up to this as an issue.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    kle4 said:

    I'm with Jossias, two Labour holds.

    However, by far the most striking finding in my opinion is that 68% agree that ‘immigration places too much pressure on public services like housing and the NHS’. For me, this finding represents the untold story of the Brexit vote last June. It is my view that the perception, right or wrong, that immigration places an unreasonable burden on public services is what turns a relatively niche right-wing issue into something to cuts through with the majority of the public

    That's an untold story?! I don't have any issue with migration myself, but it has been clear for some years that, correct or not, the levels had gotten too high as far as politics was concerned because of the public perception.

    FPT:

    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    Reading yesterday's threads and seeing SeanT say that he wants white supremacy back.

    Well, it never went away.

    This isn't the first time on this site I've actively seen PBers advocate a white supremacy though....hmmm.....

    If there has to be a global hegemon, and history indicates those are the times of greatest peace and prosperity, yes I would prefer it to be us. The Brits. Who would you prefer? The Mongols?
    Well yeah, the peace and prosperity was great - for white people. As the granddaughter of Jamaican immigrants on my mother's side, I do not pine for Jamacia to be recolonised. I do not exclusively associate success and prosperity with whiteness. As a mixed kid, it would be odd too.
    Last I heard Jamaican's regret independence,

    http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110628/lead/lead1.html

    Your grandparents made a wise decision.
    No they didn't because they don't exist.

    Mixed race teenage girl; my arse.

    He's a lorry driver from Grimsby on an epic troll.
    I'm not a teenager for a start. I'm 23.

    And your the one questioning my validity when YOU'RE the weirdo googling whether Michelle Obama is a man?

    The nerve....
    Frankly I don't know why you'd put so much effort into such trolling in the first place.

    I, however, am actually a team of users working in tandem, hence the username, and this accounts for any inconsistencies in my views. And if I say something stupid, it was one of the the ones from another shift.
    I wish you’d get a leftie into the team. That really would cause confusion!
    Come on, I said Ed M would be PM and I was ok with that, that doesn't count toward lefty points? I even said Corbyn probably wouldn't be as bad over time as it appeared at first, though I was dead wrong about that one.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited February 2017
    An interesting test case possibly looming in Pendle . Lord Tony Greaves has reported local Conservatives to the police for possible breach of electoral law by treating local residents to a free meal whilst hearing speeches from a government minister , the local MP and local councillors .
    The Conservative defence to the accusation seems to be that as the local elections in May have not yet been called they have done nothing illegal .
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    justin124 said:

    ' There do not appear to have been any rumours as to how the postal votes are looking at the two by elections.'
    Weejohnnie said:

    'They'll be massively in favour of Labour - they always are. '

    Historically the Tories have usually won the postal votes . That was certainly still the case in the early 1990s.
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    kle4 said:

    I'm with Jossias, two Labour holds.

    However, by far the most striking finding in my opinion is that 68% agree that ‘immigration places too much pressure on public services like housing and the NHS’. For me, this finding represents the untold story of the Brexit vote last June. It is my view that the perception, right or wrong, that immigration places an unreasonable burden on public services is what turns a relatively niche right-wing issue into something to cuts through with the majority of the public

    That's an untold story?! I don't have any issue with migration myself, but it has been clear for some years that, correct or not, the levels had gotten too high as far as politics was concerned because of the public perception.

    As far as much of the political class was concerned, it was an untold story.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    Essexit said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm with Jossias, two Labour holds.

    However, by far the most striking finding in my opinion is that 68% agree that ‘immigration places too much pressure on public services like housing and the NHS’. For me, this finding represents the untold story of the Brexit vote last June. It is my view that the perception, right or wrong, that immigration places an unreasonable burden on public services is what turns a relatively niche right-wing issue into something to cuts through with the majority of the public

    That's an untold story?! I don't have any issue with migration myself, but it has been clear for some years that, correct or not, the levels had gotten too high as far as politics was concerned because of the public perception.

    As far as much of the political class was concerned, it was an untold story.
    The three main parties 2010-2015 all considered it a niche right wing issue
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited February 2017

    An interesting test case possibly looming in Pendle . Lord Tony Greaves has reported local Conservatives to the police for possible breach of electoral law by treating local residents to a free meal whilst hearing speeches from a government minister , the local MP and local councillors .
    The Conservative defence to the accusation seems to be that as the local elections in May have not yet been called they have done nothing illegal .


    While I would be the first to say that bribery and corruption should be fought against hard, I think that starting witch hunts on minor rule breaches is going to end up making everyone worse off in the end.

    Save it for the important stuff.

  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,063
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm with Jossias, two Labour holds.

    However, by far the most striking finding in my opinion is that 68% agree that ‘immigration places too much pressure on public services like housing and the NHS’. For me, this finding represents the untold story of the Brexit vote last June. It is my view that the perception, right or wrong, that immigration places an unreasonable burden on public services is what turns a relatively niche right-wing issue into something to cuts through with the majority of the public

    That's an untold story?! I don't have any issue with migration myself, but it has been clear for some years that, correct or not, the levels had gotten too high as far as politics was concerned because of the public perception.

    FPT:

    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    Reading yesterday's threads and seeing SeanT say that he wants white supremacy back.

    Well, it never went away.

    This isn't the first time on this site I've actively seen PBers advocate a white supremacy though....hmmm.....

    If there has to be a global hegemon, and history indicates those are the times of greatest peace and prosperity, yes I would prefer it to be us. The Brits. Who would you prefer? The Mongols?
    Well yeah, the peace and prosperity was great - for white people. As the granddaughter of Jamaican immigrants on my mother's side, I do not pine for Jamacia to be recolonised. I do not exclusively associate success and prosperity with whiteness. As a mixed kid, it would be odd too.
    Last I heard Jamaican's regret independence,

    http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110628/lead/lead1.html

    .
    He's a lorry driver from Grimsby on an epic troll.
    I'm not a teenager for a start. I'm 23.

    And your the one questioning my validity when YOU'RE the weirdo googling whether Michelle Obama is a man?

    The nerve....
    Frankly I don't know why you'd put so much effort into such trolling in the first place.

    I, however, am actually a team of users working in tandem, hence the username, and this accounts for any inconsistencies in my views. And if I say something stupid, it was one of the the ones from another shift.
    I wish you’d get a leftie into the team. That really would cause confusion!
    Come on, I said Ed M would be PM and I was ok with that, that doesn't count toward lefty points? I even said Corbyn probably wouldn't be as bad over time as it appeared at first, though I was dead wrong about that one.
    Counts, but could be regarded as occasional eccentricity.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,402
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    ' There do not appear to have been any rumours as to how the postal votes are looking at the two by elections.'
    Weejohnnie said:

    'They'll be massively in favour of Labour - they always are. '

    Historically the Tories have usually won the postal votes . That was certainly still the case in the early 1990s.

    Given how much the system has changed since, so it's not only the very old and/or very frail can get them, I don't think that's a valid comparison.

    It does tend to favour those who work hardest, and we know Labour have sweated blood to hold these seats.

    That in itself should be causing panic though - if they need this effort to hold two safe seats in midterm, how the hell do they hold 231 (many of them more marginal) come a full election? Never mind win any more!
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    An interesting test case possibly looming in Pendle . Lord Tony Greaves has reported local Conservatives to the police for possible breach of electoral law by treating local residents to a free meal whilst hearing speeches from a government minister , the local MP and local councillors .
    The Conservative defence to the accusation seems to be that as the local elections in May have not yet been called ( bribery is OK - sorry my interpretation ) they have done nothing illegal .


    While I would be the first to say that bribery and corruption should be fought against hard, I think that starting witch hunts on minor rule breaches is going to end up making everyone worse off in the end.

    Save it for the important stuff.

    You are saying that minor rule breaches in pursuit of the Asian vote by Conservatives are unimportant and OK then .
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Fascinating little bit of trivia

    Paula Faris
    Many don't know that 'Jane Roe' never ended up having an abortion. And, eventually became a pro-life ("anti-abortion rights") advocate. https://t.co/auuTUAGCb3
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2017
    Good thread header. This is something which both a lot of hard-right commentators (who want to try to use the Brexit vote as legitimacy for their own Trump-style racism) and a lot of liberal commentators (who want to paint the whole of the "white working-class" as irredeemably racist lost causes) don't grasp.

    Most British people don't dislike immigrants personally, they don't think they're all marauding rapist criminals, and, although we might occasionally have a grumble about someone not speaking English on the train or bus (mainly because we secretly want to eavesdrop on other people's conversations), there isn't generally a big fear about immigrants "ruining British culture". People just, justifiably, think that when there's hardly any decent jobs to go round and when public services have already been cut to the bone, British people should be first in the queue, however decent and hardworking immigrants may be as individuals.
  • Options

    Pulpstar said:

    Off-topic:

    There might be a rocket launching and landing in a few minutes. It can be watched at:
    http://www.spacex.com/webcast

    ... or the flight could be scrubbed at t-13 seconds, as it was yesterday... :(

    Always get so nervous before a launch, Elon himself made the scrub call yesterday btw.
    So do I. I'm not Musk's biggest fan, but I like what he's trying to do with SpaceX.

    Now to see if they can get a second landing on land ...

    BTW, can you imagine what it'll be like when they have the two boosters from a F9 Heavy landing back on land? I so want to see that.
    Thanks for the link JJ. I saw it just in time to click on it and see the Stage 1 coming back into land. Really fab.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    ' There do not appear to have been any rumours as to how the postal votes are looking at the two by elections.'
    Weejohnnie said:

    'They'll be massively in favour of Labour - they always are. '

    Historically the Tories have usually won the postal votes . That was certainly still the case in the early 1990s.

    That would be near enough a quarter of a century ago. Perhaps a more recent statistic would help your refutation.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,063

    An interesting test case possibly looming in Pendle . Lord Tony Greaves has reported local Conservatives to the police for possible breach of electoral law by treating local residents to a free meal whilst hearing speeches from a government minister , the local MP and local councillors .
    The Conservative defence to the accusation seems to be that as the local elections in May have not yet been called ( bribery is OK - sorry my interpretation ) they have done nothing illegal .


    While I would be the first to say that bribery and corruption should be fought against hard, I think that starting witch hunts on minor rule breaches is going to end up making everyone worse off in the end.

    Save it for the important stuff.

    If it was a pie and pea supper for known supporters that’s one thing, but there appear to have been 800 invitations sent out. It seemed a big enough room, too, from the picture in the local paper.

    http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/15101280.Police_called_in_over_Lancashire_Tories__free_meals_/?ref=mr&lp=6
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    An interesting test case possibly looming in Pendle . Lord Tony Greaves has reported local Conservatives to the police for possible breach of electoral law by treating local residents to a free meal whilst hearing speeches from a government minister , the local MP and local councillors .
    The Conservative defence to the accusation seems to be that as the local elections in May have not yet been called ( bribery is OK - sorry my interpretation ) they have done nothing illegal .


    While I would be the first to say that bribery and corruption should be fought against hard, I think that starting witch hunts on minor rule breaches is going to end up making everyone worse off in the end.

    Save it for the important stuff.

    You are saying that minor rule breaches in pursuit of the Asian vote by Conservatives are unimportant and OK then .
    He's saying this is on a par with MPs of all colours writing to Commons authorities to complain about alleged and very minor rule breaches by their opposition. While technically correct, they come across as priggish jerks who would better saving their outrage for when something really matters.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:



    Frankly I don't know why you'd put so much effort into such trolling in the first place.

    I, however, am actually a team of users working in tandem, hence the username, and this accounts for any inconsistencies in my views. And if I say something stupid, it was one of the the ones from another shift.

    I am not a team of users. I am Spartacus.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    matt said:

    An interesting test case possibly looming in Pendle . Lord Tony Greaves has reported local Conservatives to the police for possible breach of electoral law by treating local residents to a free meal whilst hearing speeches from a government minister , the local MP and local councillors .
    The Conservative defence to the accusation seems to be that as the local elections in May have not yet been called ( bribery is OK - sorry my interpretation ) they have done nothing illegal .


    While I would be the first to say that bribery and corruption should be fought against hard, I think that starting witch hunts on minor rule breaches is going to end up making everyone worse off in the end.

    Save it for the important stuff.

    You are saying that minor rule breaches in pursuit of the Asian vote by Conservatives are unimportant and OK then .
    He's saying this is on a par with MPs of all colours writing to Commons authorities to complain about alleged and very minor rule breaches by their opposition. While technically correct, they come across as priggish jerks who would better saving their outrage for when something really matters.
    Oh so you think Peter Golds in Tower Hamlets is a priggish jerk .
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,063
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:



    Frankly I don't know why you'd put so much effort into such trolling in the first place.

    I, however, am actually a team of users working in tandem, hence the username, and this accounts for any inconsistencies in my views. And if I say something stupid, it was one of the the ones from another shift.

    I am not a team of users. I am Spartacus.
    'Like' button pressed!
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited February 2017
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    ' There do not appear to have been any rumours as to how the postal votes are looking at the two by elections.'
    Weejohnnie said:

    'They'll be massively in favour of Labour - they always are. '

    Historically the Tories have usually won the postal votes . That was certainly still the case in the early 1990s.

    Given how much the system has changed since, so it's not only the very old and/or very frail can get them, I don't think that's a valid comparison.

    It does tend to favour those who work hardest, and we know Labour have sweated blood to hold these seats.

    That in itself should be causing panic though - if they need this effort to hold two safe seats in midterm, how the hell do they hold 231 (many of them more marginal) come a full election? Never mind win any more!
    Labour has lost seats in Opposition before. In 1988 the ultra safe seat of Govan went to Jim Sillars of the SNP but 42 gains were still made at the 1992 election.
    In the 1970 Parliament Labour managed to lose three seats - Rochdale to the Liberals - Lincoln to Dick Taverne by a landslide , and Govan to Margo Macdonald of the SNP. The latter was in November 1973 - yet Labour still returned to office in March 1974!
    Admittedly losing Copeland to the Tories would be different in that it would be a loss to the party of Government. The Mitcham & Morden by election is often given as the last such example - though really the circumstances then were very untypical with the sitting MP having defected to the SDP and the by election coinciding with the Falklands conflict.Perhaps we have to go back to Brighouse & Spenborough in Spring 1960 - though Labour's 1959 majoriity had been wafer thin. Nevertheless such a loss did not herald a Labour defeat in 1964.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075

    Pulpstar said:

    Off-topic:

    There might be a rocket launching and landing in a few minutes. It can be watched at:
    http://www.spacex.com/webcast

    ... or the flight could be scrubbed at t-13 seconds, as it was yesterday... :(

    Always get so nervous before a launch, Elon himself made the scrub call yesterday btw.
    So do I. I'm not Musk's biggest fan, but I like what he's trying to do with SpaceX.

    Now to see if they can get a second landing on land ...

    BTW, can you imagine what it'll be like when they have the two boosters from a F9 Heavy landing back on land? I so want to see that.
    Thanks for the link JJ. I saw it just in time to click on it and see the Stage 1 coming back into land. Really fab.
    There might be another one in nine days or so, and the one after that in early March might be the first reused booster.
  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    PlatoSaid said:

    Fascinating little bit of trivia

    Paula Faris
    Many don't know that 'Jane Roe' never ended up having an abortion. And, eventually became a pro-life ("anti-abortion rights") advocate. https://t.co/auuTUAGCb3

    I didn't know that. Suspect it would be more widely talked about if it was the other way around !
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2017
    Danny565 said:

    Good thread header. This is something which both a lot of hard-right commentators (who want to try to use the Brexit vote as legitimacy for their own Trump-style racism) and a lot of liberal commentators (who want to paint the whole of the "white working-class" as irredeemably racist lost causes) don't grasp.

    Most British people don't dislike immigrants personally, they don't think they're all marauding rapist criminals, and, although we might occasionally have a grumble about someone not speaking English on the train or bus (mainly because we secretly want to eavesdrop on other people's conversations), there isn't generally a big fear about immigrants "ruining British culture". People just, justifiably, think that when there's hardly any decent jobs to go round and when public services have already been cut to the bone, British people should be first in the queue, however decent and hardworking immigrants may be as individuals.

    If the public are constantly being told their wages aren't growing, that there is a cost of living crisis, that no one can afford a house and that the NHS is in crisis they will at some point wonder why.

    I don't think those in opposition ever really considered that the public might blame excessive and unreasonable demand rather than a shortfall in resources or supply.

    I occasionally wonder whether the left wing press that constantly highlight the problems in the NHS realise that they might be undermining the brand in a similar way, when they they think they are trying to protect it.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    matt said:

    An interesting test case possibly looming in Pendle . Lord Tony Greaves has reported local Conservatives to the police for possible breach of electoral law by treating local residents to a free meal whilst hearing speeches from a government minister , the local MP and local councillors .
    The Conservative defence to the accusation seems to be that as the local elections in May have not yet been called ( bribery is OK - sorry my interpretation ) they have done nothing illegal .


    While I would be the first to say that bribery and corruption should be fought against hard, I think that starting witch hunts on minor rule breaches is going to end up making everyone worse off in the end.

    Save it for the important stuff.

    You are saying that minor rule breaches in pursuit of the Asian vote by Conservatives are unimportant and OK then .
    He's saying this is on a par with MPs of all colours writing to Commons authorities to complain about alleged and very minor rule breaches by their opposition. While technically correct, they come across as priggish jerks who would better saving their outrage for when something really matters.
    Oh so you think Peter Golds in Tower Hamlets is a priggish jerk .
    I think a sense of perspective and judgement is often helpful. It must be easy living in a world where there are no shades of grey.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    An interesting test case possibly looming in Pendle . Lord Tony Greaves has reported local Conservatives to the police for possible breach of electoral law by treating local residents to a free meal whilst hearing speeches from a government minister , the local MP and local councillors .
    The Conservative defence to the accusation seems to be that as the local elections in May have not yet been called ( bribery is OK - sorry my interpretation ) they have done nothing illegal .


    While I would be the first to say that bribery and corruption should be fought against hard, I think that starting witch hunts on minor rule breaches is going to end up making everyone worse off in the end.

    Save it for the important stuff.

    If it was a pie and pea supper for known supporters that’s one thing, but there appear to have been 800 invitations sent out. It seemed a big enough room, too, from the picture in the local paper.

    http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/15101280.Police_called_in_over_Lancashire_Tories__free_meals_/?ref=mr&lp=6
    Most of the regulations only apply during the run up to an election. It also depends whether there were just speeches or if there was an explicit link to voting
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    matt said:

    matt said:

    An interesting test case possibly looming in Pendle . Lord Tony Greaves has reported local Conservatives to the police for possible breach of electoral law by treating local residents to a free meal whilst hearing speeches from a government minister , the local MP and local councillors .
    The Conservative defence to the accusation seems to be that as the local elections in May have not yet been called ( bribery is OK - sorry my interpretation ) they have done nothing illegal .


    While I would be the first to say that bribery and corruption should be fought against hard, I think that starting witch hunts on minor rule breaches is going to end up making everyone worse off in the end.

    Save it for the important stuff.

    You are saying that minor rule breaches in pursuit of the Asian vote by Conservatives are unimportant and OK then .
    He's saying this is on a par with MPs of all colours writing to Commons authorities to complain about alleged and very minor rule breaches by their opposition. While technically correct, they come across as priggish jerks who would better saving their outrage for when something really matters.
    Oh so you think Peter Golds in Tower Hamlets is a priggish jerk .
    I think a sense of perspective and judgement is often helpful. It must be easy living in a world where there are no shades of grey.
    Your shade of grey seems to vary depending whether the Conservatives are involved or not .
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,063
    Charles said:

    An interesting test case possibly looming in Pendle . Lord Tony Greaves has reported local Conservatives to the police for possible breach of electoral law by treating local residents to a free meal whilst hearing speeches from a government minister , the local MP and local councillors .
    The Conservative defence to the accusation seems to be that as the local elections in May have not yet been called ( bribery is OK - sorry my interpretation ) they have done nothing illegal .


    While I would be the first to say that bribery and corruption should be fought against hard, I think that starting witch hunts on minor rule breaches is going to end up making everyone worse off in the end.

    Save it for the important stuff.

    If it was a pie and pea supper for known supporters that’s one thing, but there appear to have been 800 invitations sent out. It seemed a big enough room, too, from the picture in the local paper.

    http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/15101280.Police_called_in_over_Lancashire_Tories__free_meals_/?ref=mr&lp=6
    Most of the regulations only apply during the run up to an election. It also depends whether there were just speeches or if there was an explicit link to voting
    I think it was quite close to the line if not over it. According to the report, in the paper I quoted, it’s alleged that 'a speaker addressed the gathering and called specifically for the people present to vote for a named candidate in the county council election on May 4.’.
    I’ve removed the candidates name, but it was in the original report. A visiting minister and the local Tory MP also spoke. The invitees were apparently all in the named candidates ward.
  • Options

    An interesting test case possibly looming in Pendle . Lord Tony Greaves has reported local Conservatives to the police for possible breach of electoral law by treating local residents to a free meal whilst hearing speeches from a government minister , the local MP and local councillors .
    The Conservative defence to the accusation seems to be that as the local elections in May have not yet been called they have done nothing illegal .


    While I would be the first to say that bribery and corruption should be fought against hard, I think that starting witch hunts on minor rule breaches is going to end up making everyone worse off in the end.

    Save it for the important stuff.

    Interestingly, the voters themselves could be found guilty of treating if this goes the distance. That's my reading of the relevant Act.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DanSmith said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Fascinating little bit of trivia

    Paula Faris
    Many don't know that 'Jane Roe' never ended up having an abortion. And, eventually became a pro-life ("anti-abortion rights") advocate. https://t.co/auuTUAGCb3

    I didn't know that. Suspect it would be more widely talked about if it was the other way around !
    She had a religious epiphany and was baptised live on television (and then she switched from evangelical to Catholicism), she went from campaigning for abortion clinics in the 80s to protesting outside them.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    He'd get on well with Corbyn

    Kasparov's liberal politics https://t.co/qk5Px3FWRv
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    matt said:

    matt said:

    An interesting test case possibly looming in Pendle . Lord Tony Greaves has reported local Conservatives to the police for possible breach of electoral law by treating local residents to a free meal whilst hearing speeches from a government minister , the local MP and local councillors .
    The Conservative defence to the accusation seems to be that as the local elections in May have not yet been called ( bribery is OK - sorry my interpretation ) they have done nothing illegal .


    While I would be the first to say that bribery and corruption should be fought against hard, I think that starting witch hunts on minor rule breaches is going to end up making everyone worse off in the end.

    Save it for the important stuff.

    You are saying that minor rule breaches in pursuit of the Asian vote by Conservatives are unimportant and OK then .
    He's saying this is on a par with MPs of all colours writing to Commons authorities to complain about alleged and very minor rule breaches by their opposition. While technically correct, they come across as priggish jerks who would better saving their outrage for when something really matters.
    Oh so you think Peter Golds in Tower Hamlets is a priggish jerk .
    I think a sense of perspective and judgement is often helpful. It must be easy living in a world where there are no shades of grey.
    Your shade of grey seems to vary depending whether the Conservatives are involved or not .
    I think you should take off your yellow tinted monocole and read what I said.
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    This is how you win votes

    Video: Ukip member caught on CCTV urinating and trying to push way into OAP's home in Stoke Central

    http://m.stokesentinel.co.uk/video-ukip-member-caught-on-cctv-urinating-and-trying-to-push-way-into-oap-s-home-in-stoke-central/story-30147297-detail/story.html
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    An interesting test case possibly looming in Pendle . Lord Tony Greaves has reported local Conservatives to the police for possible breach of electoral law by treating local residents to a free meal whilst hearing speeches from a government minister , the local MP and local councillors .
    The Conservative defence to the accusation seems to be that as the local elections in May have not yet been called ( bribery is OK - sorry my interpretation ) they have done nothing illegal .


    While I would be the first to say that bribery and corruption should be fought against hard, I think that starting witch hunts on minor rule breaches is going to end up making everyone worse off in the end.

    Save it for the important stuff.

    You are saying that minor rule breaches in pursuit of the Asian vote by Conservatives are unimportant and OK then .
    You want to come to Sutton and see how the LDs do exactly that with the Muslim and Tamil vote...
    Would you like me to send you the evidence!!
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    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I am curious to see how the Lib Dems end up doing in both seats. All the murmuring has been about Conservatives in Copeland and Nuttall in Stoke.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    edited February 2017

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I am curious to see how the Lib Dems end up doing in both seats. All the murmuring has been about Conservatives in Copeland and Nuttall in Stoke.

    Prove they're alive, that's about it?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    :wink:

    "The problem with the man currently leading the Republican party is that he is, as the Washington Post puts it, a hostage to the “fanatical policies of the extreme right.” His administration “insults women” and his unwelcome presence in public life “insults us all.” And, because the Republican party is all about the winning these days, the GOP establishment is “ready to forgive” . . . what? . . . “just about anything — as long as he wins.”

    So says the Post, which is not alone in this estimate: Extreme on economic issues, extreme on the so-called social issues, he even has had an “extreme foreign-policy makeover,” according to The Atlantic. His views on immigration, MSNBC says, represent the Republican party “shrinking down to its most extreme elements.” One cable-news panelist insists he was the most extreme Republican presidential candidate ever. Paul Krugman laments that he has forsaken all serious policy thinking for “dangerous fantasy.”

    Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times is also alert to the “dangers” he presents, the “most dangerous of all” being his views on Iran, though Kristof also worries that he is too buddy-buddy with that awful, scheming Benjamin Netanyahu. Predictably, Chris Matthews and Rachel Maddow dogpiled him for his perplexing relationship with Moscow. Vice calls him a “sociopath” and Maureen Dowd dismissed him as “an out-of-touch plutocrat” who keeps “his true nature . . . buried where we can’t see it,” a devious figure who is so awful deep down inside that he “must hide an essential part of who he is” from the public.

    President Mitt Romney sounds like he would have been a riot...

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/445054/media-trump-both-unreliable
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I am curious to see how the Lib Dems end up doing in both seats. All the murmuring has been about Conservatives in Copeland and Nuttall in Stoke.

    If the LDs were to pull off a surprise it would be in Stoke - the turnout could be ultra low and both main candidates have disgraced themselves. But it doesn't strike me as likely.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,974

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I am curious to see how the Lib Dems end up doing in both seats. All the murmuring has been about Conservatives in Copeland and Nuttall in Stoke.

    Field Marshal Dr. Nuttall VC, MC, DSO, has left no stone unturned in his efforts to lose Stoke, but nor has his Labour opponent. The Lib Dems may do rather well there. But, I think they'll hardly feature in Copeland.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,974

    This is how you win votes

    Video: Ukip member caught on CCTV urinating and trying to push way into OAP's home in Stoke Central

    http://m.stokesentinel.co.uk/video-ukip-member-caught-on-cctv-urinating-and-trying-to-push-way-into-oap-s-home-in-stoke-central/story-30147297-detail/story.html

    That's very amusing.

    O/T, I found No More Catholics Left as funny as you did. I bet Rangers fans will be singing it.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I am curious to see how the Lib Dems end up doing in both seats. All the murmuring has been about Conservatives in Copeland and Nuttall in Stoke.

    Morris I do not know about these seats but my guess is that a lot of voters who are Labour supporters will vote.Lib Dem again to beat the conservatives ,.This after not doing the tactical voting at the last election due to their disdain at the Lib Dems been in coalition with the Tories in government.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    edited February 2017
    Mr. kle4, aren't vampires, zombies, lich lords, ghosts, ghouls, wraiths and spectres welcome in the Lib Dems?

    Mr. Essexit, it'd be quite amusing if the Lib Dems slipped through the middle.

    Mr. F, you should show more respect to the nation's foremost lion-taming jazz legend.

    Mr. City, also, easier to be 'tactical' when Labour is led by Corbyn.

    Edited extra bit: and phantoms, of course.
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    Sean_F said:

    This is how you win votes

    Video: Ukip member caught on CCTV urinating and trying to push way into OAP's home in Stoke Central

    http://m.stokesentinel.co.uk/video-ukip-member-caught-on-cctv-urinating-and-trying-to-push-way-into-oap-s-home-in-stoke-central/story-30147297-detail/story.html

    That's very amusing.

    O/T, I found No More Catholics Left as funny as you did. I bet Rangers fans will be singing it.
    I wonder how many of them changed the PINs on their credit/debit cards after watching it though?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited February 2017
    The Tories are now pushing Stoke as well as Copeland as they have a good local candidate there unlike Nuttall and think they can come second there as well as winning Copeland
  • Options

    This is how you win votes

    Video: Ukip member caught on CCTV urinating and trying to push way into OAP's home in Stoke Central

    http://m.stokesentinel.co.uk/video-ukip-member-caught-on-cctv-urinating-and-trying-to-push-way-into-oap-s-home-in-stoke-central/story-30147297-detail/story.html

    UKIP, pissing into everyone's tents.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    edited February 2017
    Mr. HYUFD, left it a bit late, though.

    Mind you, could still be good groundwork for the General Election.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Divvie, it's pretty bloody rancid (leaving aside the stupidity). Similar to the disgrace of when some fools put dog muck through Clegg's letterbox. Not an especial fan of him, but nobody deserves that sort of treatment.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,920

    rkrkrk said:

    Mildly surprised there's not more mention of the potential customs union fudge.

    We leave 'the' customs union and have 'a' customs union with the EU. We still negotiate our own deals with non-EU countries but are in a customs union with the EU so that goods etc can flow more easily.

    I don't really understand how it can work... And it sounds complicated to agree.

    If we still share with the EU a common external tariff on some products... Does that mean we need the EU to sign off on British trade deals with other countries? That doesn't sound workable.

    Or does it mean that any trade deals we do in future will have to keep tariffs on certain products since that is part of the new EU / UK customs union?
    Turkey has a customs union with the EU but still has control over its trade deals. On the other hand, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are all in the single market but not in the customs union whilst Liechtenstein also has an opt out from the Freedom of Movement of people part.
    Thanks for the response.
    I've been doing some extra reading and I think you might be mistaken re: Turkey.

    They don't seem to have much control over trade deals?

    www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/turkey-is-no-model-for-britains-post-brexit-trade-policy/

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21711053-even-if-not-permanent-home-transitional-deal-remain-customs-union-may-make

    Logically if there is an agreed external tariff against all other countries... You can't sign a trade deal and remove that tariff without leaving the customs union.

    So is the plan that the UK will stay in the customs union for... Say... Cars... And thus all future trade deals with third party countries won't be able to reduce tariffs on cars because for that industry we agreed we would stick with what the EU agreed?

    As I said.... I don't fully understand this... So could be totally wrong.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Mr. kle4, aren't vampires, zombies, lich lords, ghosts, ghouls, wraiths and spectres welcome in the Lib Dems?

    Mr. Essexit, it'd be quite amusing if the Lib Dems slipped through the middle.

    Mr. F, you should show more respect to the nation's foremost lion-taming jazz legend.

    Mr. City, also, easier to be 'tactical' when Labour is led by Corbyn.

    Edited extra bit: and phantoms, of course.

    Yes agreed but there is always certain seats where only Lib Dems can beat the Conservatives with the help of tactical labour voters ..Brexit has helped smooth the thought for many of the coalition.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited February 2017
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    ' There do not appear to have been any rumours as to how the postal votes are looking at the two by elections.'
    Weejohnnie said:

    'They'll be massively in favour of Labour - they always are. '

    Historically the Tories have usually won the postal votes . That was certainly still the case in the early 1990s.

    Given how much the system has changed since, so it's not only the very old and/or very frail can get them, I don't think that's a valid comparison.

    It does tend to favour those who work hardest, and we know Labour have sweated blood to hold these seats.

    That in itself should be causing panic though - if they need this effort to hold two safe seats in midterm, how the hell do they hold 231 (many of them more marginal) come a full election? Never mind win any more!
    Labour has lost seats in Opposition before. In 1988 the ultra safe seat of Govan went to Jim Sillars of the SNP but 42 gains were still made at the 1992 election.
    In the 1970 Parliament Labour managed to lose three seats - Rochdale to the Liberals - Lincoln to Dick Taverne by a landslide , and Govan to Margo Macdonald of the SNP. The latter was in November 1973 - yet Labour still returned to office in March 1974!
    Admittedly losing Copeland to the Tories would be different in that it would be a loss to the party of Government. The Mitcham & Morden by election is often given as the last such example - though really the circumstances then were very untypical with the sitting MP having defected to the SDP and the by election coinciding with the Falklands conflict.Perhaps we have to go back to Brighouse & Spenborough in Spring 1960 - though Labour's 1959 majoriity had been wafer thin. Nevertheless such a loss did not herald a Labour defeat in 1964.
    Both Labour and the Tories changed their leader from 1960 to 1964 and 1960 was pre Profumo
  • Options
    Mr. City, perhaps... but if it's May versus Corbyn, then I wonder if that effect will be mitigated by a greater desire to kick Labour than the Conservatives.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,974

    Sean_F said:

    This is how you win votes

    Video: Ukip member caught on CCTV urinating and trying to push way into OAP's home in Stoke Central

    http://m.stokesentinel.co.uk/video-ukip-member-caught-on-cctv-urinating-and-trying-to-push-way-into-oap-s-home-in-stoke-central/story-30147297-detail/story.html

    That's very amusing.

    O/T, I found No More Catholics Left as funny as you did. I bet Rangers fans will be singing it.
    I wonder how many of them changed the PINs on their credit/debit cards after watching it though?
    They should change them to 1916.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Sean_F said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I am curious to see how the Lib Dems end up doing in both seats. All the murmuring has been about Conservatives in Copeland and Nuttall in Stoke.

    Field Marshal Dr. Nuttall VC, MC, DSO, has left no stone unturned in his efforts to lose Stoke, but nor has his Labour opponent. The Lib Dems may do rather well there. But, I think they'll hardly feature in Copeland.
    It is not just that he might lose Stoke. He has lost his reputation as a possible national leader.Whatever happens he will not be seen in the same light as before this by election started.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    ' There do not appear to have been any rumours as to how the postal votes are looking at the two by elections.'
    Weejohnnie said:

    'They'll be massively in favour of Labour - they always are. '

    Historically the Tories have usually won the postal votes . That was certainly still the case in the early 1990s.

    Given how much the system has changed since, so it's not only the very old and/or very frail can get them, I don't think that's a valid comparison.

    It does tend to favour those who work hardest, and we know Labour have sweated blood to hold these seats.

    That in itself should be causing panic though - if they need this effort to hold two safe seats in midterm, how the hell do they hold 231 (many of them more marginal) come a full election? Never mind win any more!
    Labour has lost seats in Opposition before. In 1988 the ultra safe seat of Govan went to Jim Sillars of the SNP but 42 gains were still made at the 1992 election.
    In the 1970 Parliament Labour managed to lose three seats - Rochdale to the Liberals - Lincoln to Dick Taverne by a landslide , and Govan to Margo Macdonald of the SNP. The latter was in November 1973 - yet Labour still returned to office in March 1974!
    Admittedly losing Copeland to the Tories would be different in that it would be a loss to the party of Government. The Mitcham & Morden by election is often given as the last such example - though really the circumstances then were very untypical with the sitting MP having defected to the SDP and the by election coinciding with the Falklands conflict.Perhaps we have to go back to Brighouse & Spenborough in Spring 1960 - though Labour's 1959 majoriity had been wafer thin. Nevertheless such a loss did not herald a Labour defeat in 1964.
    Both Labour and the Tories changed their leader from 1960 to 1964 and 1960 was pre Profumo
    Many believe Gaitskell would have done better than Wilson in 1964 - by the time of his death Labour had a big lead.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,563
    Yorkcity said:

    Sean_F said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I am curious to see how the Lib Dems end up doing in both seats. All the murmuring has been about Conservatives in Copeland and Nuttall in Stoke.

    Field Marshal Dr. Nuttall VC, MC, DSO, has left no stone unturned in his efforts to lose Stoke, but nor has his Labour opponent. The Lib Dems may do rather well there. But, I think they'll hardly feature in Copeland.
    It is not just that he might lose Stoke. He has lost his reputation as a possible national leader.Whatever happens he will not be seen in the same light as before this by election started.
    Yes. He's toast. Sad.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    ' There do not appear to have been any rumours as to how the postal votes are looking at the two by elections.'
    Weejohnnie said:

    'They'll be massively in favour of Labour - they always are. '

    Historically the Tories have usually won the postal votes . That was certainly still the case in the early 1990s.

    Given how much the system has changed since, so it's not only the very old and/or very frail can get them, I don't think that's a valid comparison.

    It does tend to favour those who work hardest, and we know Labour have sweated blood to hold these seats.

    That in itself should be causing panic though - if they need this effort to hold two safe seats in midterm, how the hell do they hold 231 (many of them more marginal) come a full election? Never mind win any more!
    Labour has lost seats in Opposition before. In 1988 the ultra safe seat of Govan went to Jim Sillars of the SNP but 42 gains were still made at the 1992 election.
    In the 1970 Parliament Labour managed to lose three seats - Rochdale to the Liberals - Lincoln to Dick Taverne by a landslide , and Govan to Margo Macdonald of the SNP. The latter was in November 1973 - yet Labour still returned to office in March 1974!
    Admittedly losing Copeland to the Tories would be different in that it would be a loss to the party of Government. The Mitcham & Morden by election is often given as the last such example - though really the circumstances then were very untypical with the sitting MP having defected to the SDP and the by election coinciding with the Falklands conflict.Perhaps we have to go back to Brighouse & Spenborough in Spring 1960 - though Labour's 1959 majoriity had been wafer thin. Nevertheless such a loss did not herald a Labour defeat in 1964.
    Both Labour and the Tories changed their leader from 1960 to 1964 and 1960 was pre Profumo
    Many believe Gaitskell would have done better than Wilson in 1964 - by the time of his death Labour had a big lead.
    Maybe but Macmillan comfortably beat Gaitskill in 1959
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Mr. City, perhaps... but if it's May versus Corbyn, then I wonder if that effect will be mitigated by a greater desire to kick Labour than the Conservatives.

    Yes very true in Con Lab marginals .Copeland could help confirm.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Yorkcity said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I am curious to see how the Lib Dems end up doing in both seats. All the murmuring has been about Conservatives in Copeland and Nuttall in Stoke.

    Morris I do not know about these seats but my guess is that a lot of voters who are Labour supporters will vote.Lib Dem again to beat the conservatives ,.This after not doing the tactical voting at the last election due to their disdain at the Lib Dems been in coalition with the Tories in government.
    Interesting guess. I don't think it's a partisan point to say that the left have always been more open to tactical voting than the right in the UK. And yes maybe, on top, we are starting to see forgiveness of the LibDems for their perceived betrayal of the left.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    Yorkcity said:

    Sean_F said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I am curious to see how the Lib Dems end up doing in both seats. All the murmuring has been about Conservatives in Copeland and Nuttall in Stoke.

    Field Marshal Dr. Nuttall VC, MC, DSO, has left no stone unturned in his efforts to lose Stoke, but nor has his Labour opponent. The Lib Dems may do rather well there. But, I think they'll hardly feature in Copeland.
    It is not just that he might lose Stoke. He has lost his reputation as a possible national leader.Whatever happens he will not be seen in the same light as before this by election started.
    I think he could now come third in Stoke behind the Tory candidate who is a local councillor and only in his twenties
  • Options
    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/833357835568349189

    Ian Warren has in the past advised Labour nationally on the threat from UKIP.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    This is how you win votes

    Video: Ukip member caught on CCTV urinating and trying to push way into OAP's home in Stoke Central

    http://m.stokesentinel.co.uk/video-ukip-member-caught-on-cctv-urinating-and-trying-to-push-way-into-oap-s-home-in-stoke-central/story-30147297-detail/story.html

    That's very amusing.

    O/T, I found No More Catholics Left as funny as you did. I bet Rangers fans will be singing it.
    I wonder how many of them changed the PINs on their credit/debit cards after watching it though?
    They should change them to 1916.
    Mrs JackW intimated my PIN should be 1745 .... why should I change it to your number of pairs of shoes was my reply ...

    Was my impudence worth her scowl? .... :sunglasses:
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Fun from the latest Alexa website rankings:

    Breitbart News 29th Most Trafficked Site in America, Overtakes PornHub and ESPN

    At 29th place, Breitbart is the third most-trafficked news site in America, second only to CNN and The New York Times. Its traffic has now overtaken that of outlets such as FOX News, The Huffington Post, and The Washington Post.

    Responding to the news, Breitbart News editor-in-chief Alexander Marlow said that “to have surpassed the top sports website in the world and the top porn site is a staggering accomplishment. We have an amazing (virtual) newsroom filled with brave and talented people.”
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Yorkcity said:

    Sean_F said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I am curious to see how the Lib Dems end up doing in both seats. All the murmuring has been about Conservatives in Copeland and Nuttall in Stoke.

    Field Marshal Dr. Nuttall VC, MC, DSO, has left no stone unturned in his efforts to lose Stoke, but nor has his Labour opponent. The Lib Dems may do rather well there. But, I think they'll hardly feature in Copeland.
    It is not just that he might lose Stoke. He has lost his reputation as a possible national leader.Whatever happens he will not be seen in the same light as before this by election started.
    Even Nuttall's beatification by the Pope ten years ago seems to leave the electorate unmoved.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    edited February 2017

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/833357835568349189

    Ian Warren has in the past advised Labour nationally on the threat from UKIP.

    Not much help until he tells us what it should be!

    We had Lib Dems on here saying they should be 9/4 when they were 66s
    I have said UKIP should be EVS and they are 2/1
    Pong said Labour should be 1.3 when they were 10/11

    That's 157% already
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mike .... that doorway picture of Nuttall in the blue dress isn't very flattering. Who knew he was the worlds foremost transvestite. Is there no end to the mans brilliance?
  • Options
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/833357835568349189

    Ian Warren has in the past advised Labour nationally on the threat from UKIP.

    Not much help until he tells us what it should be!

    We had Lib Dems on here saying they should be 9/4 when they were 66s
    True, but it's a signal that the Conservatives might be in the mix. He's a commentator I'd pay some attention to on this.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    if Ukip wanted to be a serious player, they needed to elect Suzanne Evans.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,974
    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    This is how you win votes

    Video: Ukip member caught on CCTV urinating and trying to push way into OAP's home in Stoke Central

    http://m.stokesentinel.co.uk/video-ukip-member-caught-on-cctv-urinating-and-trying-to-push-way-into-oap-s-home-in-stoke-central/story-30147297-detail/story.html

    That's very amusing.

    O/T, I found No More Catholics Left as funny as you did. I bet Rangers fans will be singing it.
    I wonder how many of them changed the PINs on their credit/debit cards after watching it though?
    They should change them to 1916.
    Mrs JackW intimated my PIN should be 1745 .... why should I change it to your number of pairs of shoes was my reply ...

    Was my impudence worth her scowl? .... :sunglasses:
    1660 surely?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/833357835568349189

    Ian Warren has in the past advised Labour nationally on the threat from UKIP.

    Not much help until he tells us what it should be!

    We had Lib Dems on here saying they should be 9/4 when they were 66s
    True, but it's a signal that the Conservatives might be in the mix. He's a commentator I'd pay some attention to on this.
    I took 35/1 for the MAX!!!!!!
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Germany, Emnid poll:

    SPD-S&D: 33% ↑
    CDU/CDU-EPP: 32% ↓
    AfD-ENF: 9% ↓
    LINKE-LEFT: 8%
    GRÜNE-GREEN: 7%
    FDP-ALDE: 6%

    #btw17
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    At the end of 2016, the SPD had even lower poll ratings than Corbyn's Labour #justsaying
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited February 2017
    Danny565 said:

    At the end of 2016, the SPD had even lower poll ratings than Corbyn's Labour #justsaying

    Yes but Schulz is charismatic and centrist unlike Corbyn and May has stemmed the loss of Tory voters to UKIP, Merkel is now suffering to the AfD. The Tories have only been in power for 7 years too, the CDU have been in power for 12 years. In any case whichever of Merkel or Schulz come first it will still be a CDU-SPD Grand Coalition
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/833357835568349189

    Ian Warren has in the past advised Labour nationally on the threat from UKIP.

    Which way though?
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2017
    CD13 said:

    if Ukip wanted to be a serious player, they needed to elect Suzanne Evans.

    Nah. Too posh and doesn't come across as particularly competent or bright, either.

    I still think Diane James seemed quite formidable. She would've been their best bet, had she not been forced out by UKIP's bovver boys. Plus, I think she still might be UKIP's best by-election performance where an incumbent wasn't standing?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Danny565 said:

    Germany, Emnid poll:

    SPD-S&D: 33% ↑
    CDU/CDU-EPP: 32% ↓
    AfD-ENF: 9% ↓
    LINKE-LEFT: 8%
    GRÜNE-GREEN: 7%
    FDP-ALDE: 6%

    #btw17

    That is an extraordinary turnaround for the SPD. (And it's also a remarkable turnaround for the establishment parties. 17% for the combined AfD + Linke is one of the lowest recorded scores for the two in quite some time.)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    GeoffM said:

    Fun from the latest Alexa website rankings:

    Breitbart News 29th Most Trafficked Site in America, Overtakes PornHub and ESPN

    At 29th place, Breitbart is the third most-trafficked news site in America, second only to CNN and The New York Times. Its traffic has now overtaken that of outlets such as FOX News, The Huffington Post, and The Washington Post.

    Responding to the news, Breitbart News editor-in-chief Alexander Marlow said that “to have surpassed the top sports website in the world and the top porn site is a staggering accomplishment. We have an amazing (virtual) newsroom filled with brave and talented people.”

    Globally, Breitbart is only 74 places behind the Guardian!
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    At the end of 2016, the SPD had even lower poll ratings than Corbyn's Labour #justsaying

    Yes but Schulz is charismatic and centrist unlike Corbyn and May has stemmed the loss of Tory voters to UKIP, Merkel is now suffering to the AfD. The Tories have only been in power for 7 years too, the CDU have been in power for 12 years. In any case whichever of Merkel or Schulz come first it will still be a CDU-SPD Grand Coalition
    I don't think anyone thinks Corbyn is going to do well in a General Election, but the point is that, for all the claims of Labour's brand being permanently fucked, Schulz is showing how a new leader can turn things around for a party in an instant.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    At the end of 2016, the SPD had even lower poll ratings than Corbyn's Labour #justsaying

    Yes but Schulz is charismatic and centrist unlike Corbyn and May has stemmed the loss of Tory voters to UKIP, Merkel is now suffering to the AfD. The Tories have only been in power for 7 years too, the CDU have been in power for 12 years. In any case whichever of Merkel or Schulz come first it will still be a CDU-SPD Grand Coalition
    I don't think anyone thinks Corbyn is going to do well in a General Election, but the point is that, for all the claims of Labour's brand being permanently fucked, Schulz is showing how a new leader can turn things around for a party in an instant.
    In about 5 years after Corbynism is defeated at a general election and we have left the EU Labour may be electable again but at the next general election they are not going to win
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    At the end of 2016, the SPD had even lower poll ratings than Corbyn's Labour #justsaying

    Yes but Schulz is charismatic and centrist unlike Corbyn and May has stemmed the loss of Tory voters to UKIP, Merkel is now suffering to the AfD. The Tories have only been in power for 7 years too, the CDU have been in power for 12 years. In any case whichever of Merkel or Schulz come first it will still be a CDU-SPD Grand Coalition
    I don't think anyone thinks Corbyn is going to do well in a General Election, but the point is that, for all the claims of Labour's brand being permanently fucked, Schulz is showing how a new leader can turn things around for a party in an instant.
    In about 5 years after Corbynism is defeated at a general election and we have left the EU Labour may be electable again but at the next general election they are not going to win
    Corbyn will not be leader at the 2020 election
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Pew Research
    Here are Americans' top 2017 priorities for the president & Congress: Topping the list - terrorism & the economy https://t.co/jyy2L6IqDW https://t.co/kNDO3VMoi3
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Danny565 said:



    I still think Diane James seemed quite formidable. She would've been their best bet, had she not been forced out by UKIP's bovver boys. Plus, I think she still might be UKIP's best by-election performance where an incumbent wasn't standing?

    Scratch that - Heywood & Middleton was better than Eastleigh. Even so, given H&M is fundamentally so much more friendly territory for UKIP than leafy Hampshire is, I still think there's a case that James's performance was more impressive.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    Peil Netherlands

    PVV 29 VVD 25 GL 18 CDA 17 D66 14 PVDA 11 SP 11 50+ 10
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    edited February 2017
    Danny565 said:

    CD13 said:

    if Ukip wanted to be a serious player, they needed to elect Suzanne Evans.

    Nah. Too posh and doesn't come across as particularly competent or bright, either.

    I still think Diane James seemed quite formidable. She would've been their best bet, had she not been forced out by UKIP's bovver boys. Plus, I think she still might be UKIP's best by-election performance where an incumbent wasn't standing?
    Someone on a train gobbed at her, I don't think it was a UKIP bovver boy
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    At the end of 2016, the SPD had even lower poll ratings than Corbyn's Labour #justsaying

    Yes but Schulz is charismatic and centrist unlike Corbyn and May has stemmed the loss of Tory voters to UKIP, Merkel is now suffering to the AfD. The Tories have only been in power for 7 years too, the CDU have been in power for 12 years. In any case whichever of Merkel or Schulz come first it will still be a CDU-SPD Grand Coalition
    I don't think anyone thinks Corbyn is going to do well in a General Election, but the point is that, for all the claims of Labour's brand being permanently fucked, Schulz is showing how a new leader can turn things around for a party in an instant.
    In about 5 years after Corbynism is defeated at a general election and we have left the EU Labour may be electable again but at the next general election they are not going to win
    Corbyn will not be leader at the 2020 election
    Given his 60%+ renewed mandate from the membership just 5 months ago he will unless he stands down and he will only do that for a Corbynista
  • Options
    isam said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/833357835568349189

    Ian Warren has in the past advised Labour nationally on the threat from UKIP.

    Not much help until he tells us what it should be!

    We had Lib Dems on here saying they should be 9/4 when they were 66s
    True, but it's a signal that the Conservatives might be in the mix. He's a commentator I'd pay some attention to on this.
    I took 35/1 for the MAX!!!!!!
    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/833368812246405120

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/833369632555806720
  • Options
    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    GeoffM said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I am curious to see how the Lib Dems end up doing in both seats. All the murmuring has been about Conservatives in Copeland and Nuttall in Stoke.

    Morris I do not know about these seats but my guess is that a lot of voters who are Labour supporters will vote.Lib Dem again to beat the conservatives ,.This after not doing the tactical voting at the last election due to their disdain at the Lib Dems been in coalition with the Tories in government.
    Interesting guess. I don't think it's a partisan point to say that the left have always been more open to tactical voting than the right in the UK. And yes maybe, on top, we are starting to see forgiveness of the LibDems for their perceived betrayal of the left.
    Interesting point Geoff - my experience has been the other way round. I've found Labour voters very tribal and Tory voters more calculating and tactical, but that may not be true everywhere.

    Is it completely out of the question that Paul Nuttall could be fourth in Stoke? The Lib Dems are throwing plenty at it, and if UKIP are going backwards, they won't be getting the Tory switchers?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited February 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:

    Fun from the latest Alexa website rankings:

    Breitbart News 29th Most Trafficked Site in America, Overtakes PornHub and ESPN

    At 29th place, Breitbart is the third most-trafficked news site in America, second only to CNN and The New York Times. Its traffic has now overtaken that of outlets such as FOX News, The Huffington Post, and The Washington Post.

    Responding to the news, Breitbart News editor-in-chief Alexander Marlow said that “to have surpassed the top sports website in the world and the top porn site is a staggering accomplishment. We have an amazing (virtual) newsroom filled with brave and talented people.”

    Globally, Breitbart is only 74 places behind the Guardian!
    Paul Joseph Watson has 500k followers on Twitter and 795k on YouTube - Fox has 504k

    The whole power balance of engaged eyeballs is shifting, and dwarfing everyone is PewDiePie on 54m. And now he's irked and a friend to the internet Right. The WSJ made a stupid category here - others jumped aboard - with more to lose
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,974
    HYUFD said:

    Peil Netherlands

    PVV 29 VVD 25 GL 18 CDA 17 D66 14 PVDA 11 SP 11 50+ 10
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

    That's a big lead for the Right.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peil Netherlands

    PVV 29 VVD 25 GL 18 CDA 17 D66 14 PVDA 11 SP 11 50+ 10
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

    That's a big lead for the Right.
    Yes it is and should confirm the PVV is still in front
This discussion has been closed.