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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP Stoke Central odds odds fall sharply following the unravelling of Nuttall’s Hillsborough claims
UKIP now down to 30% chance in Stoke Central on Betfair. Sharp fall following the unravelling of Nuttall's Hillsborough claims pic.twitter.com/M4LEyThH6S
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Nothing like coherent campaign promises.
Yeah, tell the people from Stafford to f*** off.
Not being a virtue signaller is different from being right wing.
Regular PB shrewdies cheering on the odds on shot that they want to win anyway! How early do we start patting ourselves on the back?
Some may be withdrawn and some may not be pushed to a vote. But, as it currently stands, here is what is going to be debated (and potentially voted for) by Peers.
Also further amendments could still be added - Committee stage isn't until Mon 27 Feb. Second Reading comes first next week.
Of course Commons will almost certainly reverse any amendments and Labour leader in the Lords has just about said they wouldn't then push any amendment a second time.
https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/lbill/2016-2017/0103/17103-RL.pdf
When talking about refugees, France is a fascist, post apocalyptic wasteland, where they sacrifice immigrants by burning them in wicker towers.
When we are talking about European integration, of culture, France is a shining beacon of liberty, intelligence etc etc.
What are you going to do about the fact that ever closer Union will break international law/treaties? Indeed it is arguable that it has already done so.
A few months ago it rose slightly causing some doom predictions:
' Claimant count and tax receipts are both good early warning signs for UK outlook and neither looks good. '
' However, there could be storm clouds gathering on the horizon. The claimant count – which in a quirk of the data is a more recent figure than the unemployment rate – jumped by 9,800 in October, with September’s figure revised upwards from 700 to 5,600. All in all, it does seem likely that unemployment could tick up somewhat during the coming months, though dire predictions made in the immediate aftermath of the vote appear wide of the mark. '
' The rise in the claimant count change - which is a fairer representation of the current environment as this data point covers the period until the end of last month - takes the shine off the good news at the very least and possibly even usurps it. '
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/nov/16/uk-unemployment-rate-wage-growth-earnings-brexit-business-live?page=with:block-582c2f09e4b090fc812816cc#block-582c2f09e4b090fc812816cc
Now that the claimant count is falling is it still a predictive factor or have some people lost interest in it as quickly as they lost interest in the stock market indices when they went up last summer ?
*I've possibly got his name wrong but he was so memorable I can't think what the damm thing was.
I miss his incisive thoughts on unemployment such as this:
' The threat of a potential vote to leave the EU in June could be partly to blame for the first rise in unemployment in seven months, the work and pensions secretary has warned.
Stephen Crabb said the latest labour report, which showed the unemployment total rose by 21,000 in the three months to February to 1.7 million, was a signal that the looming EU referendum vote was hitting the jobs market. '
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/20/uk-unemployment-rises-and-pay-growth-falls
Unemployment is now below 1.6 million.
But I am sure you are right that Cooper and Sturgeon's position would be that "we'd love to, but we're not going to."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/08/year-nicola-sturgeon-refugees/
Has Nuttall faked any photos yet like James Parnell did ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Purnell#Faked_photograph
Kind of like my dad is bigger than yours, but less intelligent....
PNWNBAMP
But it is obviously possible and so it is probably fair to ask those who make a public issue of offering to do just this whether they have in fact done what this journalist had done.
It is possible to help refugees in a practical, kindly and welcoming way.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/08/year-nicola-sturgeon-refugees/
Florence is full of asylum-seekers.
None of these asylum-seekers have been welcomed into casa tyson.
Solution: shut down any enquiry into this situation by preemptively condemning it as puerile.
Job done.
So far I have backed all 4 at 93.2%, but slightly underwater due to the Lab surge today
What do you reckon the true odds are?
More seriously, I think people are a bit fed up of politicians making all sorts of grandiose promises which have to be fulfilled by others without them ever putting their money where their mouths are, especially when there are so many ordinary people doing all sorts of things to help in practical ways without shouting about it loudly.
Funnily enough at the same time the Lib Dems have moved from being a pointless party top a party with a point. It is just a shame that that point is so ludicrous.
I'm not averse to a bit of flippant point scoring myself, we all do it on occasion, but that politicians (and luvvies) morally grandstand doesn't make the flippant points more worthy because both sides are being flippant. It's only my personal opinion of course, but personally I think some things don't really work very well as quick rebuttals, the refugee issue being one. Not least because to be effective different people who may have made the same or similar promises might have very different reasons it wasn't followed through on, and thus more or less justification (though where someone should be aware that complexity, and that other solutions might be better for all concerned, they should have known better than, say, some preaching luvvie)
Because I'm a massive train nerd obviously.
Meanwhile, back outside of La La Land, why would they offer and not follow through if not to score cheap points?
For me the social media / hillsborough stuff is basically irrelevant in a ground campaign, so shouldn't really affect the odds. They're not the bombshells twitter thinks they are.
My sources on the ground (which are few and untested) think Farage would have had a 50/50 shot, but nuttall probably won't win.
Anyway, I have backed Lab @ >1.8. In the absence of a poll, I think Lab should be 1/3.
The Copeland UKIP lay was a nobrainer. I think @pulpstar flagged it up several times, to his credit.
But you carry on. You have a pop at the so called left if it makes you feel better.
Rather than squeaking "virtue signaller" ad infinitum like a spotty virgin in a sixth form debate try offering some ideas on what we can do, because frankly your coming across as a grade a bell end.
Next!
M&S!
Or should politicans who signal virtuously not be held to account because their signals are virtuous???
Thanks.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3040177/Ukip-education-spokesman-ridiculed-posing-manifesto-photo-FAKE-library-clutching-PICTURE-BOOK.html
I 'keep banging on about it' (talk about something that the left doesn't like for half an hour on a thread) because certain partisan posters won't accept that there is something to be called out here.
Yes I understand and agree partially but you're signalling your own virtues as a non virtue signaller by doing so and it's irritating because the right (of which I am one, albeit Cameroonian so ideologically impure obviously) aren't providing any solutions.
P.S. Apologies for the previous grammar faux pas.
I suspect you don't give a toss about the issue or politicians' integrity. After all the latter is not an issue confined to the left as Nuttall ably demonstrates.
I wonder too if the Momentum movement is largely formed of the same people, but who haven't quite grown up sufficiently yet to understand what it is they're really after. As such Corbyn is a sort of Peter Pan figure.
The modern world is fraught with pitfalls isn't it. I'm really not virtuous at all. As a PBTory we have a code of honour to uphold, and I wouldn't want to be signalling anything other than the Swanage railway. (If anyone hasn't been on it, you're missing out - and Sunil, it will this year be operating a regular, albeit trial period, timetable after being reconnected to the Waterloo-Weymouth mainline as a branch). I'm told there is a good bookshop at the Wareham end of the line, too...
Same with Snowflake. It describes those who cry outrage at the slightest provocation. It's used now to mean anyone on who disagrees with a controversial statement. Prevalent on the left for sure - but you see just as many on the right (witness the 'outrage' over Budweiser's superbowl ad, or the list of companies that Trump supporters want boycotted).
And I'm not the one with a no turning right avatar.
Thanks.
Don't be so po faced. If you read between the insults you'd have seen I don't think it's OK to say one thing and not follow it through, although to be honest if we judged most politicians by these lofty standards most would be found wanting I imagine.
As for potty mouthed name calling, he was getting on my nerves. I've apologised (for my grammar at least) and anyone who loves books can't be all bad I suppose.
Poxy block quotes... sorry a bit beyond me.