UKIP. Here's a suggestion. Whoever is your Rope Quartermaster - sack them. Because they keep dishing out more than enough for each leader to hang themselves.
That said, it takes a special kind of twat to lie about Hillsborough.
A semi-sequitur from of the previous thread : I think JK Rowling is fantastic.
Her books have made children read - although to an adult eye they could do with some editing, to a child more is frequently more. Although the less said about her foray into adult literature the better - that wore her political views on its sleeve and was perhaps unhelpful to its success. That's what I mean about success corrupting her writing approach.
The first three Harry Potters are classics of childrens' literature. The remaining four have good bits, but suffer from bloat.
Really? I read the first one pretty much as it came out, and came up with one of my greatest predictions, which was: this will never catch on, derivative snobbery derived from Billy Bunter and Enid Blyton, with a dash of C.S.Lewis thrown in. In particular the inherited wealth and public school motifs seemed at odds with zeitgeist, what with New Labour sweeping the board at a G.E. And I still think I was right, except for the not catching on bit.
Being at odds with the zeitgeist may have helped (ironically, given Rowling's political views). There's nothing wrong with being compared to CS Lewis or Enid Blyton, and most authors would be delighted to be as successful.
I can understand why the books were popular. I can't understand why they were * so popular* (450 m sales). I certainly wouldn't rate her above authors like Ursula Le Guin, Dianne Wynne Jones, Rosemary Sutcliffe, Alan Garner, who sold in the millions, but not the hundreds of millions.
Absolutely CS Lewis and some of Enid Blytons adventure books were/are brilliant. John Buchan wrote some great adventure books for children too. Greenmantle and Mr Standfast are wonderful. More recently Pulmans His Dark Materials trilogy is a masterpiece.
There's good and bad in CS Lewis. The Screwtape Letters and the Great Divorce are excellent, filled with his black humour. I detest his science fiction.
The Narnia books are mostly good fun, but I don't enjoy being preached at (unless, a book is an explicit religious apology, as above).
A semi-sequitur from of the previous thread : I think JK Rowling is fantastic.
Her books have made children read - although to an adult eye they could do with some editing, to a child more is frequently more. Although the less said about her foray into adult literature the better - that wore her political views on its sleeve and was perhaps unhelpful to its success. That's what I mean about success corrupting her writing approach.
Points taken. I also like her what I perceive to be her social ( lefty? ) views.
You might be intrigued to hear that JK Rowling flattened a £1m house next door to hers, just so she could "extend her garden".
Quite the socialist.
If the house flattened was occupied by Tories, nice job done.
If the house flattened was occupied by Muslims, nice job done.
If the house flattened was occupied by immigrants, nice job done.
If the house flattened was occupied by Jews, etc etc
A semi-sequitur from of the previous thread : I think JK Rowling is fantastic.
Her books have made children read - although to an adult eye they could do with some editing, to a child more is frequently more. Although the less said about her foray into adult literature the better - that wore her political views on its sleeve and was perhaps unhelpful to its success. That's what I mean about success corrupting her writing approach.
Points taken. I also like her what I perceive to be her social ( lefty? ) views.
You might be intrigued to hear that JK Rowling flattened a £1m house next door to hers, just so she could "extend her garden".
Quite the socialist.
And that's a problem, why?
Her London pad is on Earls Terrace - very nice street
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
So Trump has done his best via Sean Spicer to burn off Mike Flynn with his apparently firm and decisive action.
The potential for Flynn is that things may get worse as a private citizen because he has talked to the FBI and they wont be happy if he bullshitted them.
As for Spicer, Comical Ali wouldn't be in it. Trump tried to keep Flynn and Trump knew Flynn had bullshitted about the conversations with the Russians.
And that is only part of it.
The spooks, as I mentioned the other night, are heavily dependent on legislative branch doing their job, particularly in the Senate and there are some signs that enough GOP types there will break ranks.
A semi-sequitur from of the previous thread : I think JK Rowling is fantastic.
Her books have made children read - although to an adult eye they could do with some editing, to a child more is frequently more. Although the less said about her foray into adult literature the better - that wore her political views on its sleeve and was perhaps unhelpful to its success. That's what I mean about success corrupting her writing approach.
Points taken. I also like her what I perceive to be her social ( lefty? ) views.
You might be intrigued to hear that JK Rowling flattened a £1m house next door to hers, just so she could "extend her garden".
A semi-sequitur from of the previous thread : I think JK Rowling is fantastic.
Her books have made children read - although to an adult eye they could do with some editing, to a child more is frequently more. Although the less said about her foray into adult literature the better - that wore her political views on its sleeve and was perhaps unhelpful to its success. That's what I mean about success corrupting her writing approach.
Points taken. I also like her what I perceive to be her social ( lefty? ) views.
You might be intrigued to hear that JK Rowling flattened a £1m house next door to hers, just so she could "extend her garden".
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
It's not inconceivable that there might be a Brexit boom, particularly if the US over-regulates/ goes isolationist, and the EU continues to stagnate/integrate and suffers from political paralysis.
And precisely no-one will have seen it coming.
Our story is not yet told.
There was a very unusual but striking analysis of Brexit in - if I remember correctly - some Israeli paper or magazine, a few weeks after the vote. I'd find the link but I'm fucking knackered after writing 4000 words of fiction today.
Anyway the gist was: pre Brexit we saw nothing but slow relative decline for the U.K. Just like all other EU nations. Comfortable, affluent, but definitely in gradual relative decline.
The author said he'd entirely changed his opinion after Brexit. Because he saw a country willing to take a massive risk. To go it alone. And that spirit of bravery and enterprise meant that decline was not inevitable at all. Britain could easily prosper, in quite unexpected ways.
At the time I dismissed it as being glib and ill-informed. I expected a Brexit recession to be honest. And lots of trouble.
Now I wonder if he will be proved right sooner rather than later. We shall see.
I expected a hit. Not a huge one, but still some sort of hit.
But now? Output is moving up smartly, the current account deficit is falling, public borrowing is coming in below forecast. Maybe Brexit has just released some animal spirits.
A semi-sequitur from of the previous thread : I think JK Rowling is fantastic.
Her books have made children read - although to an adult eye they could do with some editing, to a child more is frequently more. Although the less said about her foray into adult literature the better - that wore her political views on its sleeve and was perhaps unhelpful to its success. That's what I mean about success corrupting her writing approach.
The first three Harry Potters are classics of childrens' literature. The remaining four have good bits, but suffer from bloat.
I must be unusual. None of them grabbed me.
I think I am in a minority of one, having never even read them. There was so much hype (most irritatingly from adult fans of Potter) when they first came out it put me off them. I'd be more than willing to read them to my son, but he's not interested - he likes space stuff and mysteries, not wizards.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
It's not inconceivable that there might be a Brexit boom, particularly if the US over-regulates/ goes isolationist, and the EU continues to stagnate/integrate and suffers from political paralysis.
And precisely no-one will have seen it coming.
Our story is not yet told.
There was a very unusual but striking analysis of Brexit in - if I remember correctly - some Israeli paper or magazine, a few weeks after the vote. I'd find the link but I'm fucking knackered after writing 4000 words of fiction today.
Anyway the gist was: pre Brexit we saw nothing but slow relative decline for the U.K. Just like all other EU nations. Comfortable, affluent, but definitely in gradual relative decline.
The author said he'd entirely changed his opinion after Brexit. Because he saw a country willing to take a massive risk. To go it alone. And that spirit of bravery and enterprise meant that decline was not inevitable at all. Britain could easily prosper, in quite unexpected ways.
At the time I dismissed it as being glib and ill-informed. I expected a Brexit recession to be honest. And lots of trouble.
Now I wonder if he will be proved right sooner rather than later. We shall see.
That is my hope. It's as much about self-confidence and self-belief as anything else.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
It's not inconceivable that there might be a Brexit boom, particularly if the US over-regulates/ goes isolationist, and the EU continues to stagnate/integrate and suffers from political paralysis.
And precisely no-one will have seen it coming.
Our story is not yet told.
There was a very unusual but striking analysis of Brexit in - if I remember correctly - some Israeli paper or magazine, a few weeks after the vote. I'd find the link but I'm fucking knackered after writing 4000 words of fiction today.
Anyway the gist was: pre Brexit we saw nothing but slow relative decline for the U.K. Just like all other EU nations. Comfortable, affluent, but definitely in gradual relative decline.
The author said he'd entirely changed his opinion after Brexit. Because he saw a country willing to take a massive risk. To go it alone. And that spirit of bravery and enterprise meant that decline was not inevitable at all. Britain could easily prosper, in quite unexpected ways.
At the time I dismissed it as being glib and ill-informed. I expected a Brexit recession to be honest. And lots of trouble.
Now I wonder if he will be proved right sooner rather than later. We shall see.
I expected a hit. Not a huge one, but still some sort of hit.
But now? Output is moving up smartly, the current account deficit is falling, public borrowing is coming in below forecast. Maybe Brexit has just released some animal spirits.
Plenty of Brexit doom on ITV News this evening, inflation up and concern over job losses if GM sells Vauxhall to PSA
Previously I thought the Tories and LDs would get about 10% each in Stoke Central but now I'm thinking it will be more like 15% each with the poor quality of both the UKIP and Lab candidates.
A semi-sequitur from of the previous thread : I think JK Rowling is fantastic.
Her books have made children read - although to an adult eye they could do with some editing, to a child more is frequently more. Although the less said about her foray into adult literature the better - that wore her political views on its sleeve and was perhaps unhelpful to its success. That's what I mean about success corrupting her writing approach.
The first three Harry Potters are classics of childrens' literature. The remaining four have good bits, but suffer from bloat.
I must be unusual. None of them grabbed me.
I think I am in a minority of one, having never even read them. There was so much hype (most irritatingly from adult fans of Potter) when they first came out it put me off them. I'd be more than willing to read them to my son, but he's not interested - he likes space stuff and mysteries, not wizards.
Roald Dahl knocks her into a cocked hat, to be honest.
It doesn't help that I don't particularly like J K Rowling either. A lady who manages to look miserable, even when she's smiling.
We need a list of politicians who are even vaguely trustworthy. To save everyone any trouble thinking about it,. the list will be empty and everyone should realise it..
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
It's not inconceivable that there might be a Brexit boom, particularly if the US over-regulates/ goes isolationist, and the EU continues to stagnate/integrate and suffers from political paralysis.
And precisely no-one will have seen it coming.
Our story is not yet told.
There was a very unusual but striking analysis of Brexit in - if I remember correctly - some Israeli paper or magazine, a few weeks after the vote. I'd find the link but I'm fucking knackered after writing 4000 words of fiction today.
Anyway the gist was: pre Brexit we saw nothing but slow relative decline for the U.K. Just like all other EU nations. Comfortable, affluent, but definitely in gradual relative decline.
The author said he'd entirely changed his opinion after Brexit. Because he saw a country willing to take a massive risk. To go it alone. And that spirit of bravery and enterprise meant that decline was not inevitable at all. Britain could easily prosper, in quite unexpected ways.
At the time I dismissed it as being glib and ill-informed. I expected a Brexit recession to be honest. And lots of trouble.
Now I wonder if he will be proved right sooner rather than later. We shall see.
I expected a hit. Not a huge one, but still some sort of hit.
But now? Output is moving up smartly, the current account deficit is falling, public borrowing is coming in below forecast. Maybe Brexit has just released some animal spirits.
Plenty of Brexit doom on ITV News this evening, inflation up and concern over job losses if GM sells Vauxhall to PSA
Inflation at 1.8% would have been considered an unimaginable success, when I was younger.
A semi-sequitur from of the previous thread : I think JK Rowling is fantastic.
Her books have made children read - although to an adult eye they could do with some editing, to a child more is frequently more. Although the less said about her foray into adult literature the better - that wore her political views on its sleeve and was perhaps unhelpful to its success. That's what I mean about success corrupting her writing approach.
The first three Harry Potters are classics of childrens' literature. The remaining four have good bits, but suffer from bloat.
i could barely get through Harry Potter 1, and have not bothered with the others (tho I hear they improve)
Now Philip Pullman, there you're talking. Horrible lefty politics, but a truly great "kids' writer", with a noble prose style and terrific imaginative gifts. Masterpieces.
Better than most Booker prize winners.
Did you read them to your kids ? Her prose is pretty awful (particularly noticeable when you read the stuff out loud), but she can tell a story. In contrast, Pullmans's Northern Lights was a flat out masterpiece, but the trilogy then fell fall on its face. The last book was awful.
A Series of Unfortunate Events is probably the only contemporary children's series which succeeds on all levels
With all the talk of Labour's problems, I thought it would be helpful to see just how bad their situation is on the proposed new boundaries (using Electoral Calculus). If I just move the Lab and Con scores and keep all the other parties the same then we get the follows:
C 37.8%, L 31.2% - the same result as 2015 leads to a Con majority of 40 on the new boundaries C 35.7%, L33.3% - Lab deprive Con of their majority by taking Broxtowe and Hucknall (projected maj 2,183) C 34.4%, L34.6% - Lab become the largest party in terms of votes but are still 55 seats behind the Tories. They do pick up Ribble S (predicted maj 3,903) C 32.2% L36.8% - Lab become the largest party in terms of seats (but are 40 short of a majority) by taking Northampton N (predicted maj 5,533). 3 prominent Con casualties are Rudd, Bojo and IDS (the latter two's seats have adverse boundary changes) C 28.3% L40.7% - Lab match Tony's Blair's vote share in 2001but are still 6 short of a majority. Seats picked up include Cities of London and Westminster (maj 8,963) and Shrewsbury C 27.9% L41.1% - Lab finally get a majority of 4 by picking up Gravesham (11,006)
It's striking how Lab would do much so worse now on a Blair style landslide vote. The main reasons for this are:
- The over-representation of Scotland has ended and that of Wales is going - The loss of Scotland (even in the best scenario above Lab only pick up 2 seats from the SNP) - The unwind of Lab/LD tactical voting - Con vote is better distributed and Lab's is worse - The South (outside London) is gaining electorate faster than other regions
So even if Corbyn goes, it looks very hard for Lab to win outright (they would probably need to run a minority government or coalition)
It looks impossible, until it isn't.
Angela Merkel was a dead cert a month ago.
A couple of months ago I said the AfD would be squeezed by a campaign message of, "Vote AfD, get a coalition of the left." I was told this wouldn't be a credible message...
Under Germany's PR system a vote for the AfD does not make that much difference, it is the CDU's recent losses to the SPD which have hit it and of course Germany comes after the Dutch and French elections anyway. Plus the SPD will not do a national deal with Die Linke as the CDU will not deal with the AfD
A semi-sequitur from of the previous thread : I think JK Rowling is fantastic.
Her books have made children read - although to an adult eye they could do with some editing, to a child more is frequently more. Although the less said about her foray into adult literature the better - that wore her political views on its sleeve and was perhaps unhelpful to its success. That's what I mean about success corrupting her writing approach.
The first three Harry Potters are classics of childrens' literature. The remaining four have good bits, but suffer from bloat.
Really? I read the first one pretty much as it came out, and came up with one of my greatest predictions, which was: this will never catch on, derivative snobbery derived from Billy Bunter and Enid Blyton, with a dash of C.S.Lewis thrown in. In particular the inherited wealth and public school motifs seemed at odds with zeitgeist, what with New Labour sweeping the board at a G.E. And I still think I was right, except for the not catching on bit.
Being at odds with the zeitgeist may have helped (ironically, given Rowling's political views). There's nothing wrong with being compared to CS Lewis or Enid Blyton, and most authors would be delighted to be as successful.
I can understand why the books were popular. I can't understand why they were * so popular* (450 m sales). I certainly wouldn't rate her above authors like Ursula Le Guin, Dianne Wynne Jones, Rosemary Sutcliffe, Alan Garner, who sold in the millions, but not the hundreds of millions.
Absolutely CS Lewis and some of Enid Blytons adventure books were/are brilliant. John Buchan wrote some great adventure books for children too. Greenmantle and Mr Standfast are wonderful. More recently Pulmans His Dark Materials trilogy is a masterpiece.
I said derivative of C.S.Lewis, not comparable to him. (Specifically, the stuff about Harry's having to live with the horrible uncle and cousin is lifted from the beginning and ending of Voyage of the Dawn Treader). I hope you are joking about Enid Blyton, she is emetic beyond belief. I don't think Greenmantle or Mr Standfast were intended for children - from memory, there is a German officer in one or the other, whose rooms are decorated with a markedly feminine taste in a way which suggests the most hideous moral deformity - i.e. he's gay. Pullman is in a way brilliant but in a lot of ways just clunky; how do daemons work; do they eat, fuck defecate etc., and having a couple of pesky kids just you know, actually physically killing God is just ludicrous (and presumably is why there can't be a sequel to the Hollywood film).
A semi-sequitur from of the previous thread : I think JK Rowling is fantastic.
Her books have made children read - although to an adult eye they could do with some editing, to a child more is frequently more. Although the less said about her foray into adult literature the better - that wore her political views on its sleeve and was perhaps unhelpful to its success. That's what I mean about success corrupting her writing approach.
Points taken. I also like her what I perceive to be her social ( lefty? ) views.
You might be intrigued to hear that JK Rowling flattened a £1m house next door to hers, just so she could "extend her garden".
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
It's not inconceivable that there might be a Brexit boom, particularly if the US over-regulates/ goes isolationist, and the EU continues to stagnate/integrate and suffers from political paralysis.
And precisely no-one will have seen it coming.
Our story is not yet told.
There was a very unusual but striking analysis of Brexit in - if I remember correctly - some Israeli paper or magazine, a few weeks after the vote. I'd find the link but I'm fucking knackered after writing 4000 words of fiction today.
Anyway the gist was: pre Brexit we saw nothing but slow relative decline for the U.K. Just like all other EU nations. Comfortable, affluent, but definitely in gradual relative decline.
The author said he'd entirely changed his opinion after Brexit. Because he saw a country willing to take a massive risk. To go it alone. And that spirit of bravery and enterprise meant that decline was not inevitable at all. Britain could easily prosper, in quite unexpected ways.
At the time I dismissed it as being glib and ill-informed. I expected a Brexit recession to be honest. And lots of trouble.
Now I wonder if he will be proved right sooner rather than later. We shall see.
I expected a hit. Not a huge one, but still some sort of hit.
But now? Output is moving up smartly, the current account deficit is falling, public borrowing is coming in below forecast. Maybe Brexit has just released some animal spirits.
Plenty of Brexit doom on ITV News this evening, inflation up and concern over job losses if GM sells Vauxhall to PSA
Inflation at 1.8% would have been considered an unimaginable success, when I was younger.
It was a disaster because it was back to 2014 levels apparently
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
It's not inconceivable that there might be a Brexit boom, particularly if the US over-regulates/ goes isolationist, and the EU continues to stagnate/integrate and suffers from political paralysis.
And precisely no-one will have seen it coming.
Our story is not yet told.
There was a very unusual but striking analysis of Brexit in - if I remember correctly - some Israeli paper or magazine, a few weeks after the vote. I'd find the link but I'm fucking knackered after writing 4000 words of fiction today.
Anyway the gist was: pre Brexit we saw nothing but slow relative decline for the U.K. Just like all other EU nations. Comfortable, affluent, but definitely in gradual relative decline.
The author said he'd entirely changed his opinion after Brexit. Because he saw a country willing to take a massive risk. To go it alone. And that spirit of bravery and enterprise meant that decline was not inevitable at all. Britain could easily prosper, in quite unexpected ways.
At the time I dismissed it as being glib and ill-informed. I expected a Brexit recession to be honest. And lots of trouble.
Now I wonder if he will be proved right sooner rather than later. We shall see.
I expected a hit. Not a huge one, but still some sort of hit.
But now? Output is moving up smartly, the current account deficit is falling, public borrowing is coming in below forecast. Maybe Brexit has just released some animal spirits.
Plenty of Brexit doom on ITV News this evening, inflation up and concern over job losses if GM sells Vauxhall to PSA
Inflation at 1.8% would have been considered an unimaginable success, when I was younger.
Without inflation there is no justification for annual pay rises.
And annual pay rises were the method of distributing the increase in national wealth throughout the workforce.
A semi-sequitur from of the previous thread : I think JK Rowling is fantastic.
Her books have made children read - although to an adult eye they could do with some editing, to a child more is frequently more. Although the less said about her foray into adult literature the better - that wore her political views on its sleeve and was perhaps unhelpful to its success. That's what I mean about success corrupting her writing approach.
The first three Harry Potters are classics of childrens' literature. The remaining four have good bits, but suffer from bloat.
I must be unusual. None of them grabbed me.
I think I am in a minority of one, having never even read them. There was so much hype (most irritatingly from adult fans of Potter) when they first came out it put me off them. I'd be more than willing to read them to my son, but he's not interested - he likes space stuff and mysteries, not wizards.
Roald Dahl knocks her into a cocked hat, to be honest.
It doesn't help that I don't particularly like J K Rowling either. A lady who manages to look miserable, even when she's smiling.
I must admit I find her quite attractive but I'm with you on Dahl - the guy is a genius. I love his books as does my son - Fantastic Mr Fox or Danny Champion of the World vieing for the top spot.
It was a disaster because it was back to 2014 levels apparently
The media doing their worst/best for X months/years where X is some relatively small number is one of the things that always winds me up. It's such a stupid and misleading way of talking about the significance of an index.
With all the talk of Labour's problems, I thought it would be helpful to see just how bad their situation is on the proposed new boundaries (using Electoral Calculus). If I just move the Lab and Con scores and keep all the other parties the same then we get the follows:
C 37.8%, L 31.2% - the same result as 2015 leads to a Con majority of 40 on the new boundaries C 35.7%, L33.3% - Lab deprive Con of their majority by taking Broxtowe and Hucknall (projected maj 2,183) C 34.4%, L34.6% - Lab become the largest party in terms of votes but are still 55 seats behind the Tories. They do pick up Ribble S (predicted maj 3,903) C 32.2% L36.8% - Lab become the largest party in terms of seats (but are 40 short of a majority) by taking Northampton N (predicted maj 5,533). 3 prominent Con casualties are Rudd, Bojo and IDS (the latter two's seats have adverse boundary changes) C 28.3% L40.7% - Lab match Tony's Blair's vote share in 2001but are still 6 short of a majority. Seats picked up include Cities of London and Westminster (maj 8,963) and Shrewsbury C 27.9% L41.1% - Lab finally get a majority of 4 by picking up Gravesham (11,006)
It's striking how Lab would do much so worse now on a Blair style landslide vote. The main reasons for this are:
- The over-representation of Scotland has ended and that of Wales is going - The loss of Scotland (even in the best scenario above Lab only pick up 2 seats from the SNP) - The unwind of Lab/LD tactical voting - Con vote is better distributed and Lab's is worse - The South (outside London) is gaining electorate faster than other regions
So even if Corbyn goes, it looks very hard for Lab to win outright (they would probably need to run a minority government or coalition)
It looks impossible, until it isn't.
Angela Merkel was a dead cert a month ago.
A couple of months ago I said the AfD would be squeezed by a campaign message of, "Vote AfD, get a coalition of the left." I was told this wouldn't be a credible message...
Under Germany's PR system a vote for the AfD does not make that much difference, it is the CDU's recent losses to the SPD which have hit it and of course Germany comes after the Dutch and French elections anyway. Plus the SPD will not do a national deal with Die Linke as the CDU will not deal with the AfD
If they can get the AfD below 5% then there's no way the CDU/CSU won't be the dominant party.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
It's not inconceivable that there might be a Brexit boom, particularly if the US over-regulates/ goes isolationist, and the EU continues to stagnate/integrate and suffers from political paralysis.
And precisely no-one will have seen it coming.
Our story is not yet told.
There was a very unusual but striking analysis of Brexit in - if I remember correctly - some Israeli paper or magazine, a few weeks after the vote. I'd find the link but I'm fucking knackered after writing 4000 words of fiction today.
Anyway the gist was: pre Brexit we saw nothing but slow relative decline for the U.K. Just like all other EU nations. Comfortable, affluent, but definitely in gradual relative decline.
The author said he'd entirely changed his opinion after Brexit. Because he saw a country willing to take a massive risk. To go it alone. And that spirit of bravery and enterprise meant that decline was not inevitable at all. Britain could easily prosper, in quite unexpected ways.
At the time I dismissed it as being glib and ill-informed. I expected a Brexit recession to be honest. And lots of trouble.
Now I wonder if he will be proved right sooner rather than later. We shall see.
I expected a hit. Not a huge one, but still some sort of hit.
But now? Output is moving up smartly, the current account deficit is falling, public borrowing is coming in below forecast. Maybe Brexit has just released some animal spirits.
Plenty of Brexit doom on ITV News this evening, inflation up and concern over job losses if GM sells Vauxhall to PSA
Inflation at 1.8% would have been considered an unimaginable success, when I was younger.
Without inflation there is no justification for annual pay rises.
And annual pay rises were the method of distributing the increase in national wealth throughout the workforce.
Improvements in performance? Increased profitability at the company? A rise in line with inflation is no rise at all, by definition.
It was a disaster because it was back to 2014 levels apparently
The media doing their worst/best for X months/years where X is some relatively small number is one of the things that always winds me up. It's such a stupid and misleading way of talking about the significance of an index.
With all the talk of Labour's problems, I thought it would be helpful to see just how bad their situation is on the proposed new boundaries (using Electoral Calculus). If I just move the Lab and Con scores and keep all the other parties the same then we get the follows:
C 37.8%, L 31.2% - the same result as 2015 leads to a Con majority of 40 on the new boundaries C 35.7%, L33.3% - Lab deprive Con of their majority by taking Broxtowe and Hucknall (projected maj 2,183) C 34.4%, L34.6% - Lab become the largest party in terms of votes but are still 55 seats behind the Tories. They do pick up Ribble S (predicted maj 3,903) C 32.2% L36.8% - Lab become the largest party in terms of seats (but are 40 short of a majority) by taking Northampton N (predicted maj 5,533). 3 prominent Con casualties are Rudd, Bojo and IDS (the latter two's seats have adverse boundary changes) C 28.3% L40.7% - Lab match Tony's Blair's vote share in 2001but are still 6 short of a majority. Seats picked up include Cities of London and Westminster (maj 8,963) and Shrewsbury C 27.9% L41.1% - Lab finally get a majority of 4 by picking up Gravesham (11,006)
It's striking how Lab would do much so worse now on a Blair style landslide vote. The main reasons for this are:
- The over-representation of Scotland has ended and that of Wales is going - The loss of Scotland (even in the best scenario above Lab only pick up 2 seats from the SNP) - The unwind of Lab/LD tactical voting - Con vote is better distributed and Lab's is worse - The South (outside London) is gaining electorate faster than other regions
So even if Corbyn goes, it looks very hard for Lab to win outright (they would probably need to run a minority government or coalition)
It looks impossible, until it isn't.
Angela Merkel was a dead cert a month ago.
A couple of months ago I said the AfD would be squeezed by a campaign message of, "Vote AfD, get a coalition of the left." I was told this wouldn't be a credible message...
Under Germany's PR system a vote for the AfD does not make that much difference, it is the CDU's recent losses to the SPD which have hit it and of course Germany comes after the Dutch and French elections anyway. Plus the SPD will not do a national deal with Die Linke as the CDU will not deal with the AfD
If they can get the AfD below 5% then there's no way the CDU/CSU won't be the dominant party.
Not if the SPD and Greens combined are ahead of them and the FDP fall below 5% too. Presently the AfD are comfortably over 10%
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
China suffers the same problem as Renaissance Italy. It's a wonderful place to be rich, but one moment you're banqueting with friends, or enjoying your private art gallery, the next you have an appointment with the executioner.
The great thing about the UK is you can enjoy your wealth, and run none of the risks historically associated with wealth.
So Trump has done his best via Sean Spicer to burn off Mike Flynn with his apparently firm and decisive action.
The potential for Flynn is that things may get worse as a private citizen because he has talked to the FBI and they wont be happy if he bullshitted them.
As for Spicer, Comical Ali wouldn't be in it. Trump tried to keep Flynn and Trump knew Flynn had bullshitted about the conversations with the Russians.
And that is only part of it.
The spooks, as I mentioned the other night, are heavily dependent on legislative branch doing their job, particularly in the Senate and there are some signs that enough GOP types there will break ranks.
break ranks....to what end?
They have the power to hold the Executive to account to the point of making the Executive's life impossible.
And in the last 10 minutes on NBC...Sources reveal VP Pence was informed of DOJ warning about Flynn 11 days after White House and Trump knew. Strangely out of the loop there Mr Pence..
A way way back, before Trump got elected, I reckoned Pence was a potential target if the GOP wanted to get rid of Donald. This situation is not going to lessen that.
So Trump has done his best via Sean Spicer to burn off Mike Flynn with his apparently firm and decisive action.
The potential for Flynn is that things may get worse as a private citizen because he has talked to the FBI and they wont be happy if he bullshitted them.
As for Spicer, Comical Ali wouldn't be in it. Trump tried to keep Flynn and Trump knew Flynn had bullshitted about the conversations with the Russians.
And that is only part of it.
The spooks, as I mentioned the other night, are heavily dependent on legislative branch doing their job, particularly in the Senate and there are some signs that enough GOP types there will break ranks.
Bet you never thought you'd be pinning your hopes on "dissident Republicans".
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
A semi-sequitur from of the previous thread : I think JK Rowling is fantastic.
Her books have made children read - although to an adult eye they could do with some editing, to a child more is frequently more. Although the less said about her foray into adult literature the better - that wore her political views on its sleeve and was perhaps unhelpful to its success. That's what I mean about success corrupting her writing approach.
The first three Harry Potters are classics of childrens' literature. The remaining four have good bits, but suffer from bloat.
I must be unusual. None of them grabbed me.
I think I am in a minority of one, having never even read them. There was so much hype (most irritatingly from adult fans of Potter) when they first came out it put me off them. I'd be more than willing to read them to my son, but he's not interested - he likes space stuff and mysteries, not wizards.
Roald Dahl knocks her into a cocked hat, to be honest.
It doesn't help that I don't particularly like J K Rowling either. A lady who manages to look miserable, even when she's smiling.
David Walliams' books are more comparable to Roald Dahl. My lad loved them.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
Why would they need to look anywhere else? And builders and estate agents spend money. Much of it in London.
So Trump has done his best via Sean Spicer to burn off Mike Flynn with his apparently firm and decisive action.
The potential for Flynn is that things may get worse as a private citizen because he has talked to the FBI and they wont be happy if he bullshitted them.
As for Spicer, Comical Ali wouldn't be in it. Trump tried to keep Flynn and Trump knew Flynn had bullshitted about the conversations with the Russians.
And that is only part of it.
The spooks, as I mentioned the other night, are heavily dependent on legislative branch doing their job, particularly in the Senate and there are some signs that enough GOP types there will break ranks.
Bet you never thought you'd be pinning your hopes on "dissident Republicans".
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
China suffers the same problem as Renaissance Italy. It's a wonderful place to be rich, but one moment you're banqueting with friends, or enjoying your private art gallery, the next you have an appointment with the executioner.
The great thing about the UK is you can enjoy your wealth, and run none of the risks historically associated with wealth.
Gout maybe, from the consuming of too much fine vittles....that's a historical risk from wealth.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
If you tell us what the settlement with our EU friends is going to be, that would be an easy question to answer. Broadly, there are three scenarios:
1. A sensible agreement on exit costs (a few £bn, not £60bn), and a free trade agreement which allows the car industry to survive without major disruption, and some kind of deal which allows the EU27 to continue to raise capital in the City easily. In that case, very little negative impact on the UK or on the EU27. Probability? Maybe 10% to 20%.
2. Conversely, a complete breakdown and a chaotic Brexit with no clear deal. That would be a disaster for both sides. A similar probability - 10% to 20%. The difficulty isn't the UK, it's whether the EU27 + EU parliament can actually agree a deal in their own interests.
3. Or something in between. Not a disaster, but a nasty hit all the same.
There was a very unusual but striking analysis of Brexit in - if I remember correctly - some Israeli paper or magazine, a few weeks after the vote. I'd find the link but I'm fucking knackered after writing 4000 words of fiction today.
Anyway the gist was: pre Brexit we saw nothing but slow relative decline for the U.K. Just like all other EU nations. Comfortable, affluent, but definitely in gradual relative decline.
The author said he'd entirely changed his opinion after Brexit. Because he saw a country willing to take a massive risk. To go it alone. And that spirit of bravery and enterprise meant that decline was not inevitable at all. Britain could easily prosper, in quite unexpected ways.
At the time I dismissed it as being glib and ill-informed. I expected a Brexit recession to be honest. And lots of trouble.
Now I wonder if he will be proved right sooner rather than later. We shall see.
I expected a hit. Not a huge one, but still some sort of hit.
But now? Output is moving up smartly, the current account deficit is falling, public borrowing is coming in below forecast. Maybe Brexit has just released some animal spirits.
Plenty of Brexit doom on ITV News this evening, inflation up and concern over job losses if GM sells Vauxhall to PSA
Inflation at 1.8% would have been considered an unimaginable success, when I was younger.
Without inflation there is no justification for annual pay rises.
And annual pay rises were the method of distributing the increase in national wealth throughout the workforce.
Improvements in performance? Increased profitability at the company? A rise in line with inflation is no rise at all, by definition.
Inflation of 2% Pay rise of 4% Company profits up 2%
Nil inflation Nil pay rise Company profits up 4%
Which is better for the employee ?
And if you oppose pay rises without improvements of performance then I presume you support pay cuts at the NHS.
There was a very unusual but striking analysis of Brexit in - if I remember correctly - some Israeli paper or magazine, a few weeks after the vote. I'd find the link but I'm fucking knackered after writing 4000 words of fiction today.
Anyway the gist was: pre Brexit we saw nothing but slow relative decline for the U.K. Just like all other EU nations. Comfortable, affluent, but definitely in gradual relative decline.
The author said he'd entirely changed his opinion after Brexit. Because he saw a country willing to take a massive risk. To go it alone. And that spirit of bravery and enterprise meant that decline was not inevitable at all. Britain could easily prosper, in quite unexpected ways.
At the time I dismissed it as being glib and ill-informed. I expected a Brexit recession to be honest. And lots of trouble.
Now I wonder if he will be proved right sooner rather than later. We shall see.
I expected a hit. Not a huge one, but still some sort of hit.
But now? Output is moving up smartly, the current account deficit is falling, public borrowing is coming in below forecast. Maybe Brexit has just released some animal spirits.
Plenty of Brexit doom on ITV News this evening, inflation up and concern over job losses if GM sells Vauxhall to PSA
Inflation at 1.8% would have been considered an unimaginable success, when I was younger.
Without inflation there is no justification for annual pay rises.
And annual pay rises were the method of distributing the increase in national wealth throughout the workforce.
Improvements in performance? Increased profitability at the company? A rise in line with inflation is no rise at all, by definition.
Inflation of 2% Pay rise of 4% Company profits up 2%
Nil inflation Nil pay rise Company profits up 4%
Which is better for the employee ?
And if you oppose pay rises without improvements of performance then I presume you support pay cuts at the NHS.
Pay should be inflation proofed, with extra added for performance. That is all I'm saying. Your original gambit was that without inflation there is no justification for annual pay rises. I merely tendered two examples which gave such a justification, absent inflation.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
The less rich ones will probably be snapping up properties in Birmingham and Manchester before long, if they can't afford to buy in London.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
The less rich ones will probably be snapping up properties in Birmingham and Manchester before long, if they can't afford to buy in London.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
The less rich ones will probably be snapping up properties in Birmingham and Manchester before long, if they can't afford to buy in London.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
Why would they need to look anywhere else? And builders and estate agents spend money. Much of it in London.
That depends on whether you want risk diversity and whether you think London property prices will increase from now until the heat death of the sun.
Anyone buying in prime central London during 2016 is likely down a few hundred k already.
Would have got a good return on their money if they'd invested in Dagenham or Basildon.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
The Chinese have bought Wolves, West Brom, Aston Villa and are investing in Sheffield City Centre.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
Manchester
There were reports of Chinese investment in Sheffield but I'll believe it when I see it:
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
The Chinese have bought Wolves, West Brom, Aston Villa and are investing in Sheffield City Centre.
Under Germany's PR system a vote for the AfD does not make that much difference, it is the CDU's recent losses to the SPD which have hit it and of course Germany comes after the Dutch and French elections anyway. Plus the SPD will not do a national deal with Die Linke as the CDU will not deal with the AfD
If they can get the AfD below 5% then there's no way the CDU/CSU won't be the dominant party.
I'd be delighted if the AfD got squeezed like that, but it's not likely - they seem stable on 10%ish. The SPD has not (I think) this time ruled out governing with a left coalition or at least external support, though that's unlikely too, and nobody is scared of the SPD, possibly the most low-key social democratic party in Europe (the CDU just helped one of them become President, that's how controversial they are). The latest poll is INSA, which always shows the CDU lower than any other institute, but it does look as though CDU and SPD are in the same range. I think CDU+SPD remains the most likely, in that order with Merkel carrying on, but it's not the slam dunk that it was before Schulz arrived on the scene. It is not impossible that the Greens will struggle with the 5% threshold
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
The Chinese have bought Wolves, West Brom, Aston Villa and are investing in Sheffield City Centre.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
Manchester
There were reports of Chinese investment in Sheffield but I'll believe it when I see it:
With all the talk of Labour's problems, I thought it would be helpful to see just how bad their situation is on the proposed new boundaries (using Electoral Calculus). If I just move the Lab and Con scores and keep all the other parties the same then we get the follows:
C 37.8%, L 31.2% - the same result as 2015 leads to a Con majority of 40 on the new boundaries C 35.7%, L33.3% - Lab deprive Con of their majority by taking Broxtowe and Hucknall (projected maj 2,183) C 34.4%, L34.6% - Lab become the largest party in terms of votes but are still 55 seats behind the Tories. They do pick up Ribble S (predicted maj 3,903) C 32.2% L36.8% - Lab become the largest party in terms of seats (but are 40 short of a majority) by taking Northampton N (predicted maj 5,533). 3 prominent Con casualties are Rudd, Bojo and IDS (the latter two's seats have adverse boundary changes) C 28.3% L40.7% - Lab match Tony's Blair's vote share in 2001but are still 6 short of a majority. Seats picked up include Cities of London and Westminster (maj 8,963) and Shrewsbury C 27.9% L41.1% - Lab finally get a majority of 4 by picking up Gravesham (11,006)
It's striking how Lab would do much so worse now on a Blair style landslide vote. The main reasons for this are:
- The over-representation of Scotland has ended and that of Wales is going - The loss of Scotland (even in the best scenario above Lab only pick up 2 seats from the SNP) - The unwind of Lab/LD tactical voting - Con vote is better distributed and Lab's is worse - The South (outside London) is gaining electorate faster than other regions
So even if Corbyn goes, it looks very hard for Lab to win outright (they would probably need to run a minority government or coalition)
It looks impossible, until it isn't.
Angela Merkel was a dead cert a month ago.
A couple of months ago I said the AfD would be squeezed by a campaign message of, "Vote AfD, get a coalition of the left." I was told this wouldn't be a credible message...
Under Germany's PR system a vote for the AfD does not make that much difference, it is the CDU's recent losses to the SPD which have hit it and of course Germany comes after the Dutch and French elections anyway. Plus the SPD will not do a national deal with Die Linke as the CDU will not deal with the AfD
If they can get the AfD below 5% then there's no way the CDU/CSU won't be the dominant party.
Agree, but that would be quite a push. However, we are some months away. There is also much doubt how many AfD voters would prefer a left-wing govt to a Merkel one. All to play for I'd say!
I said derivative of C.S.Lewis, not comparable to him. (Specifically, the stuff about Harry's having to live with the horrible uncle and cousin is lifted from the beginning and ending of Voyage of the Dawn Treader). I hope you are joking about Enid Blyton, she is emetic beyond belief. I don't think Greenmantle or Mr Standfast were intended for children - from memory, there is a German officer in one or the other, whose rooms are decorated with a markedly feminine taste in a way which suggests the most hideous moral deformity - i.e. he's gay. Pullman is in a way brilliant but in a lot of ways just clunky; how do daemons work; do they eat, fuck defecate etc., and having a couple of pesky kids just you know, actually physically killing God is just ludicrous (and presumably is why there can't be a sequel to the Hollywood film).
Greenmantle was based very much on the fears prevalent at the time that the Pan-Turanian movement being instigated by Turkey could be used to threaten British rule in India. Indeed only 2 years after it came out that is exactly what the Turks tried to do and was one of the main reasons for their attempts to seize Baku on the Caspian. Like Erskine Childers, Buchan was not averse to using his stories as a means of raising the alarm about possible political and military developments that might adversely affect the Empire.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
The Chinese have bought Wolves, West Brom, Aston Villa and are investing in Sheffield City Centre.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
The less rich ones will probably be snapping up properties in Birmingham and Manchester before long, if they can't afford to buy in London.
Manchester, perhaps. Birmingham, less likely.
Why? Birmingham's only a two hour drive from London.
Brexit hasn't happened. It's like counting the casualties in 1938.
More precisely, like counting them on the 9th May 1940.
Only if you equate the vote with a declaration of war. As I say. Brexit hasn't happened yet. We have no idea what the impact will be. Not a clue.
Remain in early June 2016: Voting Leave would definitely cause an immediate recession, don't do it.
Remain in late June 2016: Look how the pound and stock markets have fallen, this is a disaster already.
Remain in February 2017: Of course nothing has happened, we haven't left yet.
Sigh...
No doubt you are selling dollar-related businesess and buying up shares in UK housebuilders, supermarkets and other domestically-focused companies. If your confidence is even vaguely justified, the housebuilders in particular are a screaming buy.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
The less rich ones will probably be snapping up properties in Birmingham and Manchester before long, if they can't afford to buy in London.
Manchester, perhaps. Birmingham, less likely.
Why? Birmingham's only a two hour drive from London.
Chinese investors are already all over property in Central Manchester. The amount of development here is astonishing, and almost all of it seems to being marketed primarily at the Chinese investment market.
If we're on the subject of fantasy books then I'd like to recommend Andrzej Sapkowski and his five book series plus the two short story compilations. I only read them recently after playing the game and just expected glorified fanfiction but got an amazing fantasy saga which I finished in record time.
He deserves all the sales he can get tbh. I think if the series got a TV deal it would be on the same level as GoT and if the author was British he would be hailed in the same category as Philip Pullman. I even think some of the characters from Northern Lights have been lifted from this series, the similarities are uncanny for a few of the more unique ones and these came out 5 years earlier.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
Manchester
There were reports of Chinese investment in Sheffield but I'll believe it when I see it:
Another block of apartments and a few bars and shops perhaps ? Or another hotel ?
South Yorkshire does seem awash with some bizarre retail investments at the moment - the phrase 'stylish industrial decor' is one which rings alarm bells to me.
If we're on the subject of fantasy books then I'd like to recommend Andrzej Sapkowski and his five book series plus the two short story compilations. I only read them recently after playing the game and just expected glorified fanfiction but got an amazing fantasy saga which I finished in record time.
He deserves all the sales he can get tbh. I think if the series got a TV deal it would be on the same level as GoT and if the author was British he would be hailed in the same category as Philip Pullman. I even think some of the characters from Northern Lights have been lifted from this series, the similarities are uncanny for a few of the more unique ones and these came out 5 years earlier.
If we're on the subject of fantasy books then I'd like to recommend Andrzej Sapkowski and his five book series plus the two short story compilations. I only read them recently after playing the game and just expected glorified fanfiction but got an amazing fantasy saga which I finished in record time.
He deserves all the sales he can get tbh. I think if the series got a TV deal it would be on the same level as GoT and if the author was British he would be hailed in the same category as Philip Pullman. I even think some of the characters from Northern Lights have been lifted from this series, the similarities are uncanny for a few of the more unique ones and these came out 5 years earlier.
He's doing a book tour in march, I have tickets for the Nottingham leg.
There is already a cheesy TV version....in Polish, and a very good comic book spinoff.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
The less rich ones will probably be snapping up properties in Birmingham and Manchester before long, if they can't afford to buy in London.
Manchester, perhaps. Birmingham, less likely.
Why? Birmingham's only a two hour drive from London.
Chinese investors are already all over property in Central Manchester. The amount of development here is astonishing, and almost all of it seems to being marketed primarily at the Chinese investment market.
I do wonder if many Chinese investors are being done over in a modern day South Sea bubble.
Interesting electoral fact: in 1987 Labour polled a higher share of the vote in Stoke Central (52.5%) than in 82 of 84 London constituencies. The exceptions were Peckham (54.5%) and Newham NW (55.4%).
A semi-sequitur from of the previous thread : I think JK Rowling is fantastic.
Her books have made children read - although to an adult eye they could do with some editing, to a child more is frequently more. Although the less said about her foray into adult literature the better - that wore her political views on its sleeve and was perhaps unhelpful to its success. That's what I mean about success corrupting her writing approach.
The first three Harry Potters are classics of childrens' literature. The remaining four have good bits, but suffer from bloat.
i could barely get through Harry Potter 1, and have not bothered with the others (tho I hear they improve)
Now Philip Pullman, there you're talking. Horrible lefty politics, but a truly great "kids' writer", with a noble prose style and terrific imaginative gifts. Masterpieces.
Better than most Booker prize winners.
Did you read them to your kids ? Her prose is pretty awful (particularly noticeable when you read the stuff out loud), but she can tell a story. In contrast, Pullmans's Northern Lights was a flat out masterpiece, but the trilogy then fell fall on its face. The last book was awful.
A Series of Unfortunate Events is probably the only contemporary children's series which succeeds on all levels
I was just about to post this about Pullman, the first two novels are amazing and the third is bloated and a mess. Oddly enough I remember him doing a talk about where he got his central idea from, it was from a surgey exhibition at the museum of science in London (IIRC) where he was a trepanning drill. I've been to the same place (it is rather dated now) and seen that same drill, I only remembered that story when I saw it and it was weird to be in that spot and seeing the inspiration for a book series. Like realising you were in Hundred Acre Wood or something.
Serious question: will Brexit have any serious negative effect on the British economy AT ALL?
The fall in sterling aside, and a slight rise in inflation (both arguably desirable) I can't see ANYTHING.
Yes yes I know, we've not Brexited yet. But the lack of apocalypse is still really quite striking.
I dunno. You pulled together a decent list there, which warmed my cockles, given where I live. It's ironic, with Trump rapidly turning the United States into an international laughing stock (amazing to think he has only been Pres a fortnight or something similarly ridiculous) London has a big opportunity as the world's largest viable English speaking city. Maybe people have seen the light. Certainly London still swings. We are open. Spring is in the air.
The Chinese move on Hong Kong (kidnapping booksellers and billionaires alike) will also benefit London. Sad but true.
The list of safe, welcoming, big, world class, law-abiding English speaking cities is shrinking. Hong Kong was a big rival. Not so much now.
I bet quite a few rich Chinese dudes, who might have been thinking of a Hong Kong bolthole, are now looking at the newly competitive London property market, post Brexit devaluation.
Do these Chinese investors ever look at other parts of Britain ?
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
Manchester
There were reports of Chinese investment in Sheffield but I'll believe it when I see it:
Another block of apartments and a few bars and shops perhaps ? Or another hotel ?
South Yorkshire does seem awash with some bizarre retail investments at the moment - the phrase 'stylish industrial decor' is one which rings alarm bells to me.
There are some good restaurants in that area, thai, vietnamese, chinese. I think that will be a retail unit and food park though I'm not quite sure !
Brexit hasn't happened. It's like counting the casualties in 1938.
More precisely, like counting them on the 9th May 1940.
Only if you equate the vote with a declaration of war. As I say. Brexit hasn't happened yet. We have no idea what the impact will be. Not a clue.
Remain in early June 2016: Voting Leave would definitely cause an immediate recession, don't do it.
Remain in late June 2016: Look how the pound and stock markets have fallen, this is a disaster already.
Remain in February 2017: Of course nothing has happened, we haven't left yet.
Sigh...
No doubt you are selling dollar-related businesess and buying up shares in UK housebuilders, supermarkets and other domestically-focused companies. If your confidence is even vaguely justified, the housebuilders in particular are a screaming buy.
Nothing to do with my confidence, just others' inconsistency.
Not my Trust, but neighbouring, and a great piece on the pressures on the NHS in Birmingham. It's 20 minutes long and features a lengthy and detailed interview with the Trust CEO. Starts at 10:46 http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08fndx5/newsnight-14022017
If the electors of Stoke elect Nuttall then the old adage of if you pin a red rosette on a donkey... really will have come true except in UKIP colours.
So Trump has done his best via Sean Spicer to burn off Mike Flynn with his apparently firm and decisive action.
The potential for Flynn is that things may get worse as a private citizen because he has talked to the FBI and they wont be happy if he bullshitted them.
As for Spicer, Comical Ali wouldn't be in it. Trump tried to keep Flynn and Trump knew Flynn had bullshitted about the conversations with the Russians.
And that is only part of it.
The spooks, as I mentioned the other night, are heavily dependent on legislative branch doing their job, particularly in the Senate and there are some signs that enough GOP types there will break ranks.
break ranks....to what end?
They have the power to hold the Executive to account to the point of making the Executive's life impossible.
And in the last 10 minutes on NBC...Sources reveal VP Pence was informed of DOJ warning about Flynn 11 days after White House and Trump knew. Strangely out of the loop there Mr Pence..
A way way back, before Trump got elected, I reckoned Pence was a potential target if the GOP wanted to get rid of Donald. This situation is not going to lessen that.
This quote from Rand Paul is very disappointing, thought he was one of the more independently minded ones.
So Trump has done his best via Sean Spicer to burn off Mike Flynn with his apparently firm and decisive action.
The potential for Flynn is that things may get worse as a private citizen because he has talked to the FBI and they wont be happy if he bullshitted them.
As for Spicer, Comical Ali wouldn't be in it. Trump tried to keep Flynn and Trump knew Flynn had bullshitted about the conversations with the Russians.
And that is only part of it.
The spooks, as I mentioned the other night, are heavily dependent on legislative branch doing their job, particularly in the Senate and there are some signs that enough GOP types there will break ranks.
break ranks....to what end?
They have the power to hold the Executive to account to the point of making the Executive's life impossible.
And in the last 10 minutes on NBC...Sources reveal VP Pence was informed of DOJ warning about Flynn 11 days after White House and Trump knew. Strangely out of the loop there Mr Pence..
A way way back, before Trump got elected, I reckoned Pence was a potential target if the GOP wanted to get rid of Donald. This situation is not going to lessen that.
This quote from Rand Paul is very disappointing, thought he was one of the more independently minded ones.
A semi-sequitur from of the previous thread : I think JK Rowling is fantastic.
Her books have made children read - although to an adult eye they could do with some editing, to a child more is frequently more. Although the less said about her foray into adult literature the better - that wore her political views on its sleeve and was perhaps unhelpful to its success. That's what I mean about success corrupting her writing approach.
The first three Harry Potters are classics of childrens' literature. The remaining four have good bits, but suffer from bloat.
i could barely get through Harry Potter 1, and have not bothered with the others (tho I hear they improve)
Now Philip Pullman, there you're talking. Horrible lefty politics, but a truly great "kids' writer", with a noble prose style and terrific imaginative gifts. Masterpieces.
Better than most Booker prize winners.
Did you read them to your kids ? Her prose is pretty awful (particularly noticeable when you read the stuff out loud), but she can tell a story. In contrast, Pullmans's Northern Lights was a flat out masterpiece, but the trilogy then fell fall on its face. The last book was awful.
A Series of Unfortunate Events is probably the only contemporary children's series which succeeds on all levels
I was just about to post this about Pullman, the first two novels are amazing and the third is bloated and a mess. Oddly enough I remember him doing a talk about where he got his central idea from, it was from a surgey exhibition at the museum of science in London (IIRC) where he was a trepanning drill. I've been to the same place (it is rather dated now) and seen that same drill, I only remembered that story when I saw it and it was weird to be in that spot and seeing the inspiration for a book series. Like realising you were in Hundred Acre Wood or something.
I once had the opportunity to read a film script written by Philip Pullman. It was vast (they are norrmally around 90-110 pages - this was well over 200) and it was an absolute pile of shite. It was the worst reader's report I have ever written. Whatever his prodigious talents as a writer, he doesn't have the chops as a screen-writer on the evidence of that sample.
Has Nutall's spin doctor been exaggerating what had an element of truth at the start.
eg - Nutall was at Hillsborough but close friends were not killed - he was studying for a PhD and teaching at Uni but did not have a doctorate - he was about to move in (temporarily?) to a Stoke house but had not yet done so at the time his nomination form went in
Or has Nutall been dictating the script and/or turning a blind eye?
eg - Nutall was at Hillsborough but close friends were not killed - he was studying for a PhD and teaching at Uni but did not have a doctorate - he was about to move in (temporarily?) to a Stoke house but had not yet done so at the time his nomination form went in
Or has Nutall been dictating the script and/or turning a blind eye?
you missed winning the champions league with Tranmere
Comments
That said, it takes a special kind of twat to lie about Hillsborough.
The Narnia books are mostly good fun, but I don't enjoy being preached at (unless, a book is an explicit religious apology, as above).
I guess everything is being questioned.
What about his time of 7.2 seconds to run the 100m?
Was he really the 13th man to walk on the moon?
Ethics and the Trump team are strangers......
But now? Output is moving up smartly, the current account deficit is falling, public borrowing is coming in below forecast. Maybe Brexit has just released some animal spirits.
It doesn't help that I don't particularly like J K Rowling either. A lady who manages to look miserable, even when she's smiling.
In contrast, Pullmans's Northern Lights was a flat out masterpiece, but the trilogy then fell fall on its face. The last book was awful.
A Series of Unfortunate Events is probably the only contemporary children's series which succeeds on all levels
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gC_5GwqDtA#t=2488m
He also predicts 'deep political instability and uncertainty' and potentially 'ultra dysfunctional government'.
And annual pay rises were the method of distributing the increase in national wealth throughout the workforce.
The great thing about the UK is you can enjoy your wealth, and run none of the risks historically associated with wealth.
And in the last 10 minutes on NBC...Sources reveal VP Pence was informed of DOJ warning about Flynn 11 days after White House and Trump knew. Strangely out of the loop there Mr Pence..
A way way back, before Trump got elected, I reckoned Pence was a potential target if the GOP wanted to get rid of Donald. This situation is not going to lessen that.
Sure I understand that they might not have heard of anywhere else in Britain outside London but then I doubt they know much about Vancouver and Auckland and they're meant to be awash in Chinese money as well.
Not that Chinese property investment does any good for the locals apart from the estate agents and builders.
And builders and estate agents spend money. Much of it in London.
1. A sensible agreement on exit costs (a few £bn, not £60bn), and a free trade agreement which allows the car industry to survive without major disruption, and some kind of deal which allows the EU27 to continue to raise capital in the City easily. In that case, very little negative impact on the UK or on the EU27. Probability? Maybe 10% to 20%.
2. Conversely, a complete breakdown and a chaotic Brexit with no clear deal. That would be a disaster for both sides. A similar probability - 10% to 20%. The difficulty isn't the UK, it's whether the EU27 + EU parliament can actually agree a deal in their own interests.
3. Or something in between. Not a disaster, but a nasty hit all the same.
Pay rise of 4%
Company profits up 2%
Nil inflation
Nil pay rise
Company profits up 4%
Which is better for the employee ?
And if you oppose pay rises without improvements of performance then I presume you support pay cuts at the NHS.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/publicservicesproductivity/articles/publicservicesproductivityestimatestotalpublicservices/healthcare2014
Anyone buying in prime central London during 2016 is likely down a few hundred k already.
Would have got a good return on their money if they'd invested in Dagenham or Basildon.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3731553/The-biggest-Chinese-investments-Britain.html
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/jul/21/sheffield-lands-billion-pound-china-deal-to-create-hundreds-of-jobs
Cranes & scaffolding in place.
Remain in late June 2016: Look how the pound and stock markets have fallen, this is a disaster already.
Remain in February 2017: Of course nothing has happened, we haven't left yet.
Sigh...
British state backed, inflation proofed returns.
But I'm only a Leaver after all
I'm only a Leaver after all
Don't put your blame on me
Don't put your blame on me
He deserves all the sales he can get tbh. I think if the series got a TV deal it would be on the same level as GoT and if the author was British he would be hailed in the same category as Philip Pullman. I even think some of the characters from Northern Lights have been lifted from this series, the similarities are uncanny for a few of the more unique ones and these came out 5 years earlier.
Another block of apartments and a few bars and shops perhaps ? Or another hotel ?
South Yorkshire does seem awash with some bizarre retail investments at the moment - the phrase 'stylish industrial decor' is one which rings alarm bells to me.
There is already a cheesy TV version....in Polish, and a very good comic book spinoff.
'A great undertaking nobody to know what it is'
Oddly enough I remember him doing a talk about where he got his central idea from, it was from a surgey exhibition at the museum of science in London (IIRC) where he was a trepanning drill. I've been to the same place (it is rather dated now) and seen that same drill, I only remembered that story when I saw it and it was weird to be in that spot and seeing the inspiration for a book series. Like realising you were in Hundred Acre Wood or something.
https://twitter.com/rudilutz/status/831651573960962048
https://mobile.twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/831639979549933571/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
I fear the politics has become too partisan for him to be held accountable by Congress.
Do you think Mike Pence could be inaugurated President?
Wise words.
There appear to be some very loud disagreements today amongst Trump's Lord Haw Haw media team.
Has Nutall's spin doctor been exaggerating what had an element of truth at the start.
eg
- Nutall was at Hillsborough but close friends were not killed
- he was studying for a PhD and teaching at Uni but did not have a doctorate
- he was about to move in (temporarily?) to a Stoke house but had not yet done so at the time his nomination form went in
Or has Nutall been dictating the script and/or turning a blind eye?
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/831551042601021442
In fairness more than a few Nats piled in to condemn the tweet that said it was a 'Pity' that the journalist didn't have cancer....