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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 2nd 2017

SystemSystem Posts: 12,264
edited February 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 2nd 2017

(Uttoxeter) Town on East Staffordshire (Con defence, sitting councillor resigns their seat)

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,375
    edited February 2017
    Not too far from me are the ones in Brinsworth & Catcliffe and Dinnington.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/independent/status/827268261804797953
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    The good people of Uttoxeter Town have had a close shave; they might have been represented by yours truly had a more local candidate not been found!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/827270212122615809
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Have we commented on this?

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827189667669934080
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,375
    Tissue_Price said:

    The good people of Uttoxeter Town have had a close shave; they might have been represented by yours truly had a more local candidate not been found!

    Unlucky.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/827270212122615809

    Miliband business secretary - he hasn't a clue about business but then most of the shadow cabinet haven't a clue
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,375
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/827270212122615809

    They might as well pay out my bets on Ed as next leader. I tipped it at 200/1.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/29/is-this-ed-milibands-route-back-to-the-labour-leadership/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    No wonder she looked stressed out when meeting Erdogan yesterday
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    https://twitter.com/ayaan/status/827231884404985861
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Tissue_Price said:

    The good people of Uttoxeter Town have had a close shave; they might have been represented by yours truly had a more local candidate not been found!

    Always the danger when you run.

    You might get elected.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    I pointed out you could get 7/2 on Schulz for next chancellor with PP earlier.

    Now cut to 23/10
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Casino_Royale said:

    Have we commented on this?

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827189667669934080

    Figures are out of line with all other recent polls . Confirmation required .
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    http://trumpdonald.org/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/827270212122615809

    So as Miliband returns to the Corbyn fold looks like Lewis is losing favour with the Corbynistas
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2017
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/827270212122615809

    A man who has never even run a sweet shop as shadow business secretary....he didn't even have a clue about BrightHouse. But then we have had a commie as shadow city minister.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    I was listening to the 6 o'clock news on R4 on my drive home from work and was appalled to hear of the five men from Rotherham who have been jailed (for, I think 12-20 years) for repeatedly gang raping two pre-teen girls. They are now aged in their thirties and forties. That is all we're told about them.

    The next story is about a bank fraud by HBOS staff. A man has been jailed for a similar period of time, and has been named by R4.

    Why is a fraudster named, but serial child rapists aren't?

    Why did Trump win?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    Having a stronger SPD opponent will help Merkel avoid the campaign being defined by her versus the AfD.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2017
    JonnyJimmy said:

    I was listening to the 6 o'clock news on R4 on my drive home from work and was appalled to hear of the five men from Rotherham who have been jailed (for, I think 12-20 years) for repeatedly gang raping two pre-teen girls. They are now aged in their thirties and forties. That is all we're told about them.

    The next story is about a bank fraud by HBOS staff. A man has been jailed for a similar period of time, and has been named by R4.

    Why is a fraudster named, but serial child rapists aren't?

    Why did Trump win?

    I presume they also failed to mention that said men screamed 'Allahu Akbar' when they were sentenced?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,531
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/827270212122615809

    Miliband business secretary - he hasn't a clue about business but then most of the shadow cabinet haven't a clue
    Tbf That's never disqualified any politician!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,733
    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
    Another poll today has CDU 36% to SDP 24%, with AFD on 12%, and FDP on 7%.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Awkkkkkkkward.....

    Gorsuch founded and led a student group called the 'Fascism Forever Club' at his elite high school, DailyMail.com has already revealed. The club was set up to rally against the 'left-wing tendencies' of his professors while attending a Jesuit all-boys preparatory high school near Washington D.C.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4182464/Neil-Gorsuch-called-left-whining-children-mocked-Biden.html
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    It always starts with one poll.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    edited February 2017
    williamglenn said:

    Having a stronger SPD opponent will help Merkel avoid the campaign being defined by her versus the AfD.

    Either way most likely it will still be a Grand Coalition of CDU-SDP whether Merkel or Schulz heads it. I also doubt it makes much difference either way re Brexit, both were pictured chatting with May at the last EU conference and neither will compromise on free movement and single market membership but will still want to do something to ensure the German car industry gets as free access to the UK market as possible. The only result which may make a difference would be an AfD win which would lead to a pro Brexit Chancellor but that is unlikely to happen
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    I was listening to the 6 o'clock news on R4 on my drive home from work and was appalled to hear of the five men from Rotherham who have been jailed (for, I think 12-20 years) for repeatedly gang raping two pre-teen girls. They are now aged in their thirties and forties. That is all we're told about them.

    The next story is about a bank fraud by HBOS staff. A man has been jailed for a similar period of time, and has been named by R4.

    Why is a fraudster named, but serial child rapists aren't?

    Why did Trump win?

    I presume they also failed to mention that said men screamed 'Allahu Akbar' when they were sentenced?
    And yet you know and I just heard it on the R4 news so not that much of a cover up.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited February 2017
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/827270212122615809

    A man who has never even run a sweet shop as shadow business secretary....he didn't even have a clue about BrightHouse. But then we have had a commie as shadow city minister.
    Miliband as shad business sec is akin to letting a burger chain look after your cow for a while.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Germany;

    image
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2017
    TOPPING said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    I was listening to the 6 o'clock news on R4 on my drive home from work and was appalled to hear of the five men from Rotherham who have been jailed (for, I think 12-20 years) for repeatedly gang raping two pre-teen girls. They are now aged in their thirties and forties. That is all we're told about them.

    The next story is about a bank fraud by HBOS staff. A man has been jailed for a similar period of time, and has been named by R4.

    Why is a fraudster named, but serial child rapists aren't?

    Why did Trump win?

    I presume they also failed to mention that said men screamed 'Allahu Akbar' when they were sentenced?
    And yet you know and I just heard it on the R4 news so not that much of a cover up.
    Good...there has been far too much censorship and cover up of this story. It is in this specific case particular pertinent, as it provides some weight to the theory of the attitude of the perpetrators.

    It was also good to see CH4 news doing some proper investigative journalism over abuse by a particularly individual in the church this week.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    If Allahu Akhbar is "God is Great" what is "God is Gay" in whatever language that is?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    I was listening to the 6 o'clock news on R4 on my drive home from work and was appalled to hear of the five men from Rotherham who have been jailed (for, I think 12-20 years) for repeatedly gang raping two pre-teen girls. They are now aged in their thirties and forties. That is all we're told about them.

    The next story is about a bank fraud by HBOS staff. A man has been jailed for a similar period of time, and has been named by R4.

    Why is a fraudster named, but serial child rapists aren't?

    Why did Trump win?

    I presume they also failed to mention that said men screamed 'Allahu Akbar' when they were sentenced?
    Whether they screamed that or not, I want them 'repatriated' to the Islamic State rather than imprisoned here.

    Maybe someone has a Trebuchet design we could use..
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Ed Miliband is to business as the Ed Stone is to marketing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TOPPING said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    I was listening to the 6 o'clock news on R4 on my drive home from work and was appalled to hear of the five men from Rotherham who have been jailed (for, I think 12-20 years) for repeatedly gang raping two pre-teen girls. They are now aged in their thirties and forties. That is all we're told about them.

    The next story is about a bank fraud by HBOS staff. A man has been jailed for a similar period of time, and has been named by R4.

    Why is a fraudster named, but serial child rapists aren't?

    Why did Trump win?

    I presume they also failed to mention that said men screamed 'Allahu Akbar' when they were sentenced?
    And yet you know and I just heard it on the R4 news so not that much of a cover up.
    Good...there has been far too much censorship and cover up of this story. It is in this specific case particular pertinent, as it provides some weight to the theory of the attitude of the perpetrators.
    Which presumably (IANAL) has to do with an ongoing trial.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
    Another poll today has CDU 36% to SDP 24%, with AFD on 12%, and FDP on 7%.
    So that gives the right 55% but given the CDU will do no deal with the AfD another Grand Coalition is still most likely
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    South Park creators admit, Donald has screwed our show...we try to do OTT outrageous fictional scenarios and he is doing more OTT and outrageous stuff in reality.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2017/feb/02/south-park-donald-trump-mr-garrison
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Jeremy Corbyn's team braces for fresh Labour rebellion over article 50

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/02/jeremy-corbyn-labour-team-braces-for-fresh-labour-rebellion-over-article-50

    Follow me men (and women) out of the trenches and over the top....looks back...oh s##t.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
    I think Merkel has a fight on her hands.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Does anyone have a good reason why promoting Sharia law isn't illegal under UK/EU law, given the inherent sexism and homophobia within it?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Having a stronger SPD opponent will help Merkel avoid the campaign being defined by her versus the AfD.

    Either way most likely it will still be a Grand Coalition of CDU-SDP whether Merkel or Schulz heads it. I also doubt it makes much difference either way re Brexit, both were pictured chatting with May at the last EU conference and neither will compromise on free movement and single market membership but will still want to do something to ensure the German car industry gets as free access to the UK market as possible. The only result which may make a difference would be an AfD win which would lead to a pro Brexit Chancellor but that is unlikely to happen
    I'd prefer Merkel to Schulz, but not by much
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    No wonder she looked stressed out when meeting Erdogan yesterday
    She has been in power for a very, very long time.

    This site was barely a year old when she took office as Chancellor.

    That was well over 11 years ago.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
    Another poll today has CDU 36% to SDP 24%, with AFD on 12%, and FDP on 7%.
    So that gives the right 55% but given the CDU will do no deal with the AfD another Grand Coalition is still most likely
    The Right splitting, refusing to deal with each other, and thus letting the Left in, who will exacerbate problems on identity politics (because they just don't get it) won't make for particularly healthy politics.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
    I think Merkel has a fight on her hands.
    Agreed.

    I think there is a certain amount of what Soros calls 'reflexivity' at work here. That is, a push in one direction somewhere, inspires a push in the other direction somewhere else. Trump and Brexit make it more likely that France and Germany elect pro-EU centrists, rather than Eurosceptic right-wingers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2017
    I thought we hadn't had any Trump news for the past....looks a watch....a few hours...

    Travis Kalanick, the chief executive of ride-sharing service Uber, has stepped down from President Donald Trump's economic advisory group after strong criticism from staff and the public.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-38850545

    I can't imagine running one of these big companies at the current time. Only a few days ago they got blasted and there was a campaign for people to delete the Uber app for not instructing their drivers Uber contractors to strike in solidarity with the NYC cabbies striking, despite turning off the surge pricing so that people could get to protests at JFK at a reasonable price.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,733
    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
    Another poll today has CDU 36% to SDP 24%, with AFD on 12%, and FDP on 7%.
    So that gives the right 55% but given the CDU will do no deal with the AfD another Grand Coalition is still most likely
    The Right splitting, refusing to deal with each other, and thus letting the Left in, who will exacerbate problems on identity politics (because they just don't get it) won't make for particularly healthy politics.
    The same as in Sweden.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,531
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I thought we hadn't had any Trump news for the past....looks a watch....a few hours...

    Travis Kalanick, the chief executive of ride-sharing service Uber, has stepped down from President Donald Trump's economic advisory group after strong criticism from staff and the public.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-38850545

    And the number of people deleting Uber I guess. Free market, free choice.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/nbcnightlynews/status/827270842346328064

    @KeirSimmons: Trump UN Amb: 'We do want to better our relations w/ Russia however the dire situation in E Ukraine demands condemnation of Russian actions' twitter.com/nbcnightlynews…
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,107
    JonnyJimmy said:

    Does anyone have a good reason why promoting Sharia law isn't illegal under UK/EU law, given the inherent sexism and homophobia within it?

    Minorities are inherently unable to be racist, sexist or homophobic. When it might appear that they are doing so, it is because of imperialistic cultural imposition from white Europeans.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    JonnyJimmy said:

    Does anyone have a good reason why promoting Sharia law isn't illegal under UK/EU law, given the inherent sexism and homophobia within it?

    To be honest, sexism and homophobia (although softer, and subtler) was pretty much de rigueur in the UK only 50 years ago.

    However, those were social attitudes influenced by a still largely observant Christian population, and were progressively tempered through an open democratic process that consistently valued free thought and expression.

    Sharia is much more dogmatic and punitive, leads to quasi sexual apartheid for women, and something that approaches biblical punishments for homosexuality, and doesn't welcome much challenge or reform.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    edited February 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
    I think Merkel has a fight on her hands.
    Agreed.

    I think there is a certain amount of what Soros calls 'reflexivity' at work here. That is, a push in one direction somewhere, inspires a push in the other direction somewhere else. Trump and Brexit make it more likely that France and Germany elect pro-EU centrists, rather than Eurosceptic right-wingers.
    Not sure that necessarily follows. Le Pen now has a clear lead in France in round 1 and Wilders leads in the Netherlands in March, both come before Germany. Now neither are likely to win overall but nonetheless it does show Euroscepticism still has a presence there. However unless the AfD, Le Pen and Wilders all win, which would effectively collapse the EU, I don't think it makes much difference to Brexit whether Fillon, Macron or Hamon or Merkel or Schulz or Rutte there will be no compromise on free movement required for full single market membership which is obviously a non-starter from a May and Leave voters' standpoint. So we will be leaving the single market as May confirmed, the question is just whether some sort of Swiss-style bilateral agreements can be agreed in some sectors
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    JonnyJimmy said:

    Does anyone have a good reason why promoting Sharia law isn't illegal under UK/EU law, given the inherent sexism and homophobia within it?

    Because promoting paedophilia and illegal drug use is perfectly legal. It's just part and parcel of free speech.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
    Another poll today has CDU 36% to SDP 24%, with AFD on 12%, and FDP on 7%.
    So that gives the right 55% but given the CDU will do no deal with the AfD another Grand Coalition is still most likely
    The Right splitting, refusing to deal with each other, and thus letting the Left in, who will exacerbate problems on identity politics (because they just don't get it) won't make for particularly healthy politics.
    Under Germany's PR system the right splitting does not matter in seat terms, only in preventing a rightwing coalition and leading to a centrist one instead
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
    I think Merkel has a fight on her hands.
    Agreed.

    I think there is a certain amount of what Soros calls 'reflexivity' at work here. That is, a push in one direction somewhere, inspires a push in the other direction somewhere else. Trump and Brexit make it more likely that France and Germany elect pro-EU centrists, rather than Eurosceptic right-wingers.
    Something like that.

    But, the fundamentals in France still show the country is deeply unhappy with its direction of travel, whilst the Germans are broadly happy (albeit slightly irritated by other euro members and Merkel's approach to the migration crisis) and don't have a huge desire to rock the boat.

    At the moment..
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
    I think Merkel has a fight on her hands.
    Agreed.

    I think there is a certain amount of what Soros calls 'reflexivity' at work here. That is, a push in one direction somewhere, inspires a push in the other direction somewhere else. Trump and Brexit make it more likely that France and Germany elect pro-EU centrists, rather than Eurosceptic right-wingers.
    Not sure that necessarily follows. Le Pen now has a clear lead in France in round 1 and Wilders leads in the Netherlands in March, both come before Germany. Now neither are likely to win overall but nonetheless it does show Euroscepticism still has a presence there. However unless the AfD, Le Pen and Wilders all win, which would effectively collapse the EU, I don't think it makes much difference to Brexit, whether Fillon, Macron or Hamon or Merkel or Schulz or Rutte there will be no compromise on no free movement and full single market membership which is obviously a non-starter from a May and Leave voters' standpoint. So we will be leaving the single market as May confirmed, the question is just whether some sort of Swiss-style bilateral agreements can be agreed in some sectors
    I don't disagree with you on likelihood of outcomes. But I do think the rise of Macron and Schultz is - in part - a reaction to what's happened in other places.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Ukraine:

    There are rumours that the two breakaway regions under Moscow's puppet strings are going to call on Moscow for protection, directly or indirectly. Moscow wouldn't refuse surely.

    Curiously Nikki Haley, Trumps ambassador to the UN says there is no chance of the sanctions imposed on Russia after its takeover of the Crimea being lifted until the region goes back to the Ukraine. Either this is a clever ploy, whereby headline sanctions stay but other restrictions get lifted in the background (this is occurring already) or Haley is flying her own kite.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    Foolish from Trump:
    https://twitter.com/markdistef/status/827253542108794880
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
    Another poll today has CDU 36% to SDP 24%, with AFD on 12%, and FDP on 7%.
    So that gives the right 55% but given the CDU will do no deal with the AfD another Grand Coalition is still most likely
    The Right splitting, refusing to deal with each other, and thus letting the Left in, who will exacerbate problems on identity politics (because they just don't get it) won't make for particularly healthy politics.
    Under Germany's PR system the right splitting does not matter in seat terms, only in preventing a rightwing coalition and leading to a centrist one instead
    That was my point.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    rcs1000 said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    Does anyone have a good reason why promoting Sharia law isn't illegal under UK/EU law, given the inherent sexism and homophobia within it?

    Because promoting paedophilia and illegal drug use is perfectly legal. It's just part and parcel of free speech.
    Inciting violence is banned, but inciting kiddy fiddling is ok in our law?!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2017
    Snapchat files for a $3 billion IPO

    Five years after the launch of Snapchat, Snap is planning to go public. The company filed for an initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange today, picking the ticker symbol “SNAP” The company hopes to raise $3 billion and says it has 158 million daily active users. The IPO would reportedly value the company above $20 billion

    http://www.theverge.com/2017/2/2/14451972/snap-ipo

    Another company burning money like they on the NI renewables energy scheme... Snapchat lost $372.9 million in 2015 and $514.6 million this past year,
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
    Another poll today has CDU 36% to SDP 24%, with AFD on 12%, and FDP on 7%.
    So that gives the right 55% but given the CDU will do no deal with the AfD another Grand Coalition is still most likely
    The Right splitting, refusing to deal with each other, and thus letting the Left in, who will exacerbate problems on identity politics (because they just don't get it) won't make for particularly healthy politics.
    I think the CDU/CSU and the old AfD could have (and would have) made a deal. AfD used to be run by the former CEO of IBM Germany, who said (reasonably enough) that bailing out the Greeks with German money was bad for both the Greeks and the Germans. The AfD basically said "those unable to submit to the rigours of the Eurozone shouldn't be in the Eurozone".

    The new AfD is more like the FN. And by which I mean its economic message is now explicitly populist and anti-business. That simply won't wash with the bedrock of support that the CDU/CSU has in the German Mittelstand.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
    Another poll today has CDU 36% to SDP 24%, with AFD on 12%, and FDP on 7%.
    So that gives the right 55% but given the CDU will do no deal with the AfD another Grand Coalition is still most likely
    The Right splitting, refusing to deal with each other, and thus letting the Left in, who will exacerbate problems on identity politics (because they just don't get it) won't make for particularly healthy politics.
    I think the CDU/CSU and the old AfD could have (and would have) made a deal. AfD used to be run by the former CEO of IBM Germany, who said (reasonably enough) that bailing out the Greeks with German money was bad for both the Greeks and the Germans. The AfD basically said "those unable to submit to the rigours of the Eurozone shouldn't be in the Eurozone".

    The new AfD is more like the FN. And by which I mean its economic message is now explicitly populist and anti-business. That simply won't wash with the bedrock of support that the CDU/CSU has in the German Mittelstand.
    But, I'd hold Merkel and her polices partly accountable for that shift.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/827285479120777217
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    The furore on "free migration" is a red herring, and the policy statements in the White Paper totally expected.

    It acknowledges immigration levels have been far too high, says that freedom of movement will end after we Leave, that we will control EU migration numbers, that parliament will decide, but, that we also need to be pragmatic on skilled, and some unskilled migration, and include for a transition/adjustment period.

    None of that should be controversial or surprising.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,733
    JonnyJimmy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    Does anyone have a good reason why promoting Sharia law isn't illegal under UK/EU law, given the inherent sexism and homophobia within it?

    Because promoting paedophilia and illegal drug use is perfectly legal. It's just part and parcel of free speech.
    Inciting violence is banned, but inciting kiddy fiddling is ok in our law?!
    Inciting people to rape minors is illegal. Arguing for the abolition of the age of consent is legal.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
    Another poll today has CDU 36% to SDP 24%, with AFD on 12%, and FDP on 7%.
    So that gives the right 55% but given the CDU will do no deal with the AfD another Grand Coalition is still most likely
    The Right splitting, refusing to deal with each other, and thus letting the Left in, who will exacerbate problems on identity politics (because they just don't get it) won't make for particularly healthy politics.
    I think the CDU/CSU and the old AfD could have (and would have) made a deal. AfD used to be run by the former CEO of IBM Germany, who said (reasonably enough) that bailing out the Greeks with German money was bad for both the Greeks and the Germans. The AfD basically said "those unable to submit to the rigours of the Eurozone shouldn't be in the Eurozone".

    The new AfD is more like the FN. And by which I mean its economic message is now explicitly populist and anti-business. That simply won't wash with the bedrock of support that the CDU/CSU has in the German Mittelstand.
    But, I'd hold Merkel and her polices partly accountable for that shift.
    I think the AfD's surge is due to the migrant crisis, which was a result of Mrs Merkel's policies, so sure.

    But my point was that the new AfD (like the FN in France) is not right wing economically, merely in its Euroscepticism.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/827285479120777217

    sounds all dangerously sensible. of course there will be criticism from people who want more and people who want less, but the Tories will find a medium. a unified assault by other parties is unlikely to happen...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Casino_Royale said:

    The furore on "free migration" is a red herring, and the policy statements in the White Paper totally expected.

    It acknowledges immigration levels have been far too high, says that freedom of movement will end after we Leave, that we will control EU migration numbers, that parliament will decide, but, that we also need to be pragmatic on skilled, and some unskilled migration, and include for a transition/adjustment period.

    None of that should be controversial or surprising.

    Fair enough I'd say
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    JonnyJimmy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    Does anyone have a good reason why promoting Sharia law isn't illegal under UK/EU law, given the inherent sexism and homophobia within it?

    Because promoting paedophilia and illegal drug use is perfectly legal. It's just part and parcel of free speech.
    Inciting violence is banned, but inciting kiddy fiddling is ok in our law?!
    You can write a book about the joys of kiddy fiddling, of course.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    sounds all dangerously sensible. of course there will be criticism from people who want more and people who want less, but the Tories will find a medium. a unified assault by other parties is unlikely to happen...

    It's not other parties Tezza needs to worry about. The headbangers will be up for ditching another leader
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Headline
    "Brexit is not the high point of democracy – it's the greatest fraud ever perpetrated in British politics"

    First sentence
    "Brexit is the greatest fraud perpetrated on this country since Tony Blair’s Iraq dossier."

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-referendum-alternative-facts-brexit-bill-white-paper-european-union-a7558886.html?cmpid=facebook-post
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    Hmmm
    https://twitter.com/markharrisnyc/status/827217337149489152
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,999
    JonnyJimmy said:

    I was listening to the 6 o'clock news on R4 on my drive home from work and was appalled to hear of the five men from Rotherham who have been jailed (for, I think 12-20 years) for repeatedly gang raping two pre-teen girls. They are now aged in their thirties and forties. That is all we're told about them.

    The next story is about a bank fraud by HBOS staff. A man has been jailed for a similar period of time, and has been named by R4.

    Why is a fraudster named, but serial child rapists aren't?

    Why did Trump win?

    They are named by the BBC, here:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-38845332
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/827288932232679426
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    Note to my fellow lefties: the free market is a fine thing ...
    https://twitter.com/aterkel/status/827287498720174080
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/827190220386889732

    Though CDU+AfD+FDP combined on 52% so no leftwing majority even if Schulz is the best SDP candidate for Chancellor since Schroder. Though of course we have the Dutch and French elections first which could all have an impact
    I think Merkel has a fight on her hands.
    Agreed.

    I think there is a certain amount of what Soros calls 'reflexivity' at work here. That is, a push in one direction somewhere, inspires a push in the other direction somewhere else. Trump and Brexit make it more likely that France and Germany elect pro-EU centrists, rather than Eurosceptic right-wingers.
    Not sure that necessarily follows. Le Pen now has a clear lead in France in round 1 and Wilders leads in the Netherlands in March, both come before Germany. Now neither are likely to win overall but nonetheless it does show Euroscepticism still has a presence there. However unless the AfD, Le Pen and Wilders all win, which would effectively collapse the EU, I don't think it makes much difference to Brexit, whether Fillon, Macron or Hamon or Merkel or Schulz or Rutte there will be no compromise on no free movement and full single market membership which is obviously a non-starter from a May and Leave voters' standpoint. So we will be leaving the single market as May confirmed, the question is just whether some sort of Swiss-style bilateral agreements can be agreed in some sectors
    I don't disagree with you on likelihood of outcomes. But I do think the rise of Macron and Schultz is - in part - a reaction to what's happened in other places.
    Maybe but Schulz is a far better candidate than the last 2 the SDP have put up and the CDU have had the Chancellery for 12 years and Macron is helped by the fact Juppe lost the LR nomination and by the shift left of the PS
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,999
    SouthamObserver said:

    Hmmm
    https://twitter.com/markharrisnyc/status/827217337149489152

    Have things changed, or is it simply a different pollster ? I'm quite dubious about the accuracy of polls on these kinds of issues when there's been little or no time to be able to discern a trend.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,531
    SouthamObserver said:

    Note to my fellow lefties: the free market is a fine thing ...
    https://twitter.com/aterkel/status/827287498720174080

    Free market fee choice. The Left has never used its monetary power....yet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    SouthamObserver said:

    Hmmm
    twitter.com/markharrisnyc/status/827217337149489152

    As I recall there were two polls showing that, but yes the ham-fisted approach has no doubt had an impact!
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Good evening, pissheads!

    You are all a bunch of jokers.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg for Queen!

    George 'Geo' Osborne for Chancellor!

    Ed Balls for PM!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    edited February 2017
    Alright, who gave @Jobabob another pint? :D
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    edited February 2017
    Nigelb said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    I was listening to the 6 o'clock news on R4 on my drive home from work and was appalled to hear of the five men from Rotherham who have been jailed (for, I think 12-20 years) for repeatedly gang raping two pre-teen girls. They are now aged in their thirties and forties. That is all we're told about them.

    The next story is about a bank fraud by HBOS staff. A man has been jailed for a similar period of time, and has been named by R4.

    Why is a fraudster named, but serial child rapists aren't?

    Why did Trump win?

    They are named by the BBC, here:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-38845332
    There could be sound legal reasons for why the rapist didn't get named - it could identify the victims for example. Of course some members of the public might not understand things like this, and rather string him up. It's for exactly the same reason we shouldn't have referendums.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    RobD said:

    Alright, who gave @Jobabob another pint? :D

    If he's watching Laura Perrins on Question Time I'm not surprised he turned to drink.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    SouthamObserver said:

    Hmmm
    https://twitter.com/markharrisnyc/status/827217337149489152

    The Trump polling is all over the place. There must be large differences in the methodology.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    Laura Perrins, eh?

    These are the go-to people now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,375
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/827296258477977602
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    Y0kel said:

    Ukraine:

    There are rumours that the two breakaway regions under Moscow's puppet strings are going to call on Moscow for protection, directly or indirectly. Moscow wouldn't refuse surely.

    Curiously Nikki Haley, Trumps ambassador to the UN says there is no chance of the sanctions imposed on Russia after its takeover of the Crimea being lifted until the region goes back to the Ukraine. Either this is a clever ploy, whereby headline sanctions stay but other restrictions get lifted in the background (this is occurring already) or Haley is flying her own kite.

    Blackmail material notwithstanding, you have to wonder how long these {$COUNTRY} FIRST, STAND UP TO FOREIGNERS politicians can carry on getting along, what with all their countries being foreign to each other.

    Specifically, everybody always starts out promising to remake friends with Russia.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    Alright, who gave @Jobabob another pint? :D

    If he's watching Laura Perrins on Question Time I'm not surprised he turned to drink.
    Laura Perrier
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,264
    RobD said:

    Alright, who gave @Jobabob another pint? :D

    He's only had a half of mild.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,375
    If Tissue Price had been the candidate, the Tories would have polled 75% plus

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/827296566528659456
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If Tissue Price had been the candidate, the Tories would have polled 75% plus

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/827296566528659456

    UKIP picking up the lefty Greeny vote...hmmm...can't beat local elections.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If Tissue Price had been the candidate, the Tories would have polled 75% plus

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/827296566528659456

    That's a cracking result given the change in 3rd party. I'm astonished Corbyn isn't going down better in a Midlands market town. Astonished.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,264
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If Tissue Price had been the candidate, the Tories would have polled 75% plus

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/827296566528659456

    That is either 1) massive voter churn or 2) all the Green vote went UKIP. I don't know which is the more bizarre outcome.....
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/827296258477977602

    What a shit name: 'Town'

    Better off losing
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    https://twitter.com/hpy/status/827294392062976001
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2017
    Bizarre story of the night....

    Jack Straw tried to get Eurotrash axed by Channel 4

    Former Home Secretary 'doggedly lobbied to get cult show taken off air after being appalled when he caught his son watching it'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4186192/Jack-Straw-tried-Eurotrash-axed-Channel-4.html
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    edited February 2017
    Labour lady on QT looks like a young Meryl Streep...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If Tissue Price had been the candidate, the Tories would have polled 75% plus

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/827296566528659456

    That is either 1) massive voter churn or 2) all the Green vote went UKIP. I don't know which is the more bizarre outcome.....
    It's a two-member ward yet the Greens only put up one candidate last time. So the 2015 percentages (which are based on highest vote) don't work very well in swing terms.

    FWIW I think there's a underlying Lab --> Con swing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    williamglenn said:

    twitter.com/hpy/status/827294392062976001

    Did the government say this was all they had done? I thought they still wanted to maintain the no running commentary line.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,375
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If Tissue Price had been the candidate, the Tories would have polled 75% plus

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/827296566528659456

    That's a cracking result given the change in 3rd party. I'm astonished Corbyn isn't going down better in a Midlands market town. Astonished.
    Yeah but he's doing wonders in the marginals.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If Tissue Price had been the candidate, the Tories would have polled 75% plus

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/827296566528659456

    UKIP picking up the lefty Greeny vote...hmmm...can't beat local elections.
    The 'who controls the bins?' vote is highly indicative of GE voting patterns, at least that's what I regularly read on here.
This discussion has been closed.