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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This year’s German election: Angela Merkel’s re-election might not be as certain as the betting markets think
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Thanks for this.
I'm interested in finding out the impact of fake news/rogue polls/disinformation on voting patterns. If any of this could be traced back to Russian involvement it could be a bit of a hand grenade.
We were discussing this last night at home and both thought that this type of manoeuvring does suggest an ex-intelligence guru.
Nick, I think, draws the right conclusion that 1.73 offers value but by definition, it's quite a long way from odds reflecting a certainty.
https://twitter.com/woodsallan/status/826074453037682692
The Scottish First Minister has a meeting with Prime Minister Theresa May in Downing Street which, if not handled delicately by Nicola Sturgeon, will serve only to emphasise how isolated and irrelevant she has become to the Brexit process. Unfortunately delicacy is not the modus operandi of the First Minister.....
.......enthusiasm for a pre-Brexit independence referendum has fallen considerably, from forty-two per cent last June to thirty-two percent in September and only twenty-seven per cent now. Worse still, a majority of fifty-one per cent do not want another independence vote held within the next few years.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/brian-monteith-are-wheels-about-to-come-off-snp-bandwagon-1-4352200
Merkel vs Gabriel would have been no contest (think May vs Corbyn) but Schulz is a more credible opponent. Having said that, although Schulz is a safe pair of hands, he's no inspiring campaigner and likely to get stuck in policy minutiae. "Trust in Mutti" together with her signature gesture of how she holds her hands (the reverse bacon sandwich?) should see Merkel home comfortably. AfD are going backwards and split, and the FDP are struggling for relevance in the same way the Lib Dems were before the EU issue took off.
The one risk I think NIck has missed is the CSU causing trouble. This is the Bavarian sister party of the CDU, and it's no secret that the leadership had misgivings about Merkel standing again due to criticism of the migrant issue. However Merkel is seen to have faced the opposition down, and any votes lost will be in her safest area (think the Tories losing 5% in Surrey) so I think they will get in line when it really matters.
Don't jump to conclusions now....
C.f. May "It's not our problem..."
But Fillion may have holed himself beneath the waterline now.
I think Nick's analysis is pretty good.
Looking up the numbers, the Prince's Trust alone has stimulated the creation of 125,000 business in the UK and abroad - a major achievement to sit alongside eg the Duke of Edinburgh Award Scheme.
I feel quite sorry for the Republican fringe. They can't argue against the Queen because she is excellent and popular; they can't say Constitutional Monarchy is a failure while it is working very well and they can't even compare us negatively with Republics that need reinventing twice a century (France) or have given us Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump.
All they have left are ivory tower theorising, character assassinations on Charles, and making things up in their reports.
Using British Social Attitudes data for 1985–2012 and applying age-period-cohort analysis and generalized additive models, this article investigates whether Thatcher’s Children hold more right-authoritarian political values compared to other political generations. The study further examines the extent to which the generation that came of age under New Labour – Blair’s Babies – shares these values. The findings for generation effects indicate that the later political generation is even more right-authoritarian, including with respect to attitudes to redistribution, welfare and crime. This view is supported by evidence of cohort effects. These results show that the legacy of Thatcherism for left-right and libertarian-authoritarian values is its long-term shaping of public opinion through political socialization.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/div-classtitlethatchers-children-blairs-babies-political-socialization-and-trickle-down-value-change-an-age-period-and-cohort-analysisdiv/38664695516495C5A6C08BC656EEAB20/core-reader
Contrasts with the young's generally greater enthusiasm for Corbyn....
An interesting piece, Mr. Palmer, but the odds are too short to tempt me.
In any case, under-promise and over-deliver is a fine political maxim, only complicated by the need in politics to have to bid for votes. Charles doesn't have that problem.
http://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2017/01/30/les-deux-suspects-sont-alexandre-bissonnette-et-mohamed-khadir
"Les deux auteurs présumés de l'attentat terroriste à la mosquée de Sainte-Foy à Québec, qui a coûté la vie à six personnes, sont Alexandre Bissonnette et Mohamed Khadir, a appris TVA Nouvelles.
Les deux suspects avaient été arrêtés à la suite de la fusillade au Centre culturel islamique de Québec, dans le secteur de Sainte-Foy, dimanche soir, peu avant 20h.
Selon le Centre hospitalier universitaire de Québec (CHUQ), cinq personnes étaient également dans un état critique, deux dans un état stable et trois entre la vie et la mort. Également, 14 autres personnes ont été admises dans différents hôpitaux pour des soins mineurs, a précisé la porte-parole du CHUQ Genevieve Dupuis lors d’un point de presse lundi matin...
"Two suspected perpetrators of the terrorist attack at the Sainte-Foy mosque in Quebec City, which claimed the lives of six people, were Alexandre Bissonnette and Mohamed Khadir, TVA News reported.
The two suspects were arrested following the shooting at the Islamic Cultural Center in the Sainte-Foy area Sunday evening, shortly before 8 pm.
According to the University Hospital Center of Quebec (CHUQ), five people were also in critical condition, two in stable condition and three between life and death. Also, 14 other people were admitted to various hospitals for minor care, said CHUQ spokeswoman Genevieve Dupuis during a press briefing Monday morning ...
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/interimlifetablesengland
HMQ, on her 90th birthday, could expect another 4.71 years on this mortal coil (see cell L98). We've already had about three-quarters of a year since her last birthday, so she's looking at another 4 years from now. Or, put another way, we're into roll-of-a-dice territory over whether we get a new King in the next 12 months.
Now, there'll be few people as well looked after as her, so you might expect to shift her odds up a bit - but on the other hand that sort of thing is already priced in by her getting to 90 in the first place.
The demographics of the super-old are fascinating. 18 year olds nowadays would expect to live to their mid-80s - but once you get there, your chances of living much longer diminish rapidly. And once you get to 99, your life expectancy is only just over 2 years - basically you've little better than a 50-50 chance of making your next birthday (I know that's mangling the maths slightly, but the conclusion is still true). I suspect the 90-percentile-spread of ages-at-death has narrowed dramatically in the past 50 years.
So we've grown accustomed to people getting to their 90s, but getting past your 90s is still really very rare statistically.
@sarahwollaston: Membershp of #Euratom also a condition for Britain hosting (currently) world's largest nuclear fusion experiment. Joint European Torus (JET)
We must be approaching the stage where the probablity of the Crown passing directly to William is rising.
The ideal candidate would be a pragmatist who was pro-EU, but willing to propose an orderly dismantling of the Euro. Sadly no such option is available.
It's not impossible William will be next, but odds must be fairly long.
As an aside, just five years to the Platinum Jubilee.
Although the long-term future of the project has to be in doubt; then there are the decommissioning costs. ISTR that the relevant parties wish us to keep to the decommissioning payment sharing agreement even if we leave; meaning we'd be liable for some of the decommissioning costs of European fusion schemes.
Then again, ITER is in an even bigger mess ...
Of the two - Brexit and a Le Pen win - she poses the greater danger, partly because France has always been a much more integral part of the EU than the UK and partly because France is a continuing part of the EU. As such, EU energies will be devoted to resolving that problem (which, ironically, would result from many of the things that Cameron flagged up back in his Bloomberg speech and which were singularly not addressed in his negotiations and which, had they been, would probably not have led to Brexit). There'd be no united EU front and negotiations would be more likely to go favourably for the UK.
As an aside, I've decided against backing Bottas for four or five/five plus wins at 6 each, on the basis that the regulation changes add an element of doubt. Had the regulations remained as was, I might well've backed it.
EDIT Just seen Cookie's estimate of 8%. Same ball court.
EDIT again. I think 8% is correct.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/30/prince-charles-happy-meet-donald-trump-interfaith-islamic-connections
Good luck with that.
Depends how much Camilla smokes around him, I suppose.
https://medium.com/@yonatanzunger/trial-balloon-for-a-coup-e024990891d5#.gvqdl7mgl
"the markets are probably underestimating the favourite"
?????????????
"throw back into your paternity's shitty mouth, truly the shit-pool of all shit, all the muck and shit which your damnable rottenness has vomited up"
Something tells me that More would have fitted in very well on here
https://www.periscope.tv/w/a14AODFvTmpseEdOSnBqd1J8MWpNS2dabVFtcGx4TCcQT_l6SFxawe1v0IT5CeSILP7AmGgS8u0BYpcdESR9
Possibly!
The German electoral system is (as you'd expect!) complicated, but the gist of it is that any party that gets less than 5% of the vote is eliminated and the rest is divvied up proportionally. Thus, as Nick says, one of the questions is whether the FDP end up with over 5%, or (as last time) slip under and get nothing.
Irrespective of that, though, the CDU/CSU look safe in terms of being the largest party, and, given that, it is quite hard to see any combination which doesn't end up with them as the dominant party in whatever government emerges. The problem which the two largest parties have is that there aren't really any palatable and willing coalition partners with whom it is likely to be possible to form a majority government. Probably another 'grand coalition' will be the final outcome, but the SPD won't be keen on the idea.
It is, like the Irish election of 2015, a right old mess. Rather than try to second-guess both the seat shares and the outcome of the haggling in smoke-free rooms, I've simply bet on the CDU/CSU being the largest party, at what seemed like generous odds of 1.42. Those odds have now shortened somewhat, but it's worth keeping an eye on the 'Most Seats' market to see if value can be found there.
http://68.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mcudr6cTjm1rjq40do1_500.jpg
Two students have been arrested in Quebec for a deadly shooting at a mosque which killed six people. Alexandre Bissonnette and Mohamed Khadir were named by local media as the suspects, Mohamed is of 'Moroccan origin'. Witnesses told how they heard shouts of 'Allahu akbar' in Quebecois accents from the masked shooters
This according to CBC News.
1) The hereditary principle: A feature of Lefty dynasties around the world, such as the Nehru-Gandhis in India, the Kennedys in the USA, the Benns in the UK, and the Kims in North Korea!
2) Jobs for life: A socialist principle if ever there was one! The monarch is in the job for his or her natural life!
3) Pomp and circumstance: parades and what-not are hallmarks of the old Soviet Red Square military parades, and are still, to this day, a key feature of the Kims' regime in North Korea!
So, my fellow PBers, SJWs or not, I put it to you that Monarchy smacks of Socialism!!
"Suspects identified as Mohamed El Khadir and Alexandre Bissonnette"
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/quebec-city-mosque-shooting/article33822092/
We need Europe to agree internally on a deal - if they're in total chaos surely that makes it harder - and more likely that not only will we leave without any kind of a deal... But in a disorderly fashion.
I would have thought it kinder for all concerned for the Queen to abdicate, but I understand the reasons why she is shy of this. Declaring Charles as Prince Regent may be more fitting, and has precedent.
"Be nice to us or we'll unleash our nonagenarian head of state on Constantinople. Remember what happened last time?"
President Trump signs an executive order Monday morning requiring that for every new federal regulation implemented, two must be rescinded.
CSPAN video
President Trump signs an executive order cutting government regulations on small and large businesses. https://t.co/t4Eec9rJah
There are now two separate anti-Trump protests in Glasgow tonight as organisers of 6pm one don't like organisers of 5pm one
#Sigh