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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After last night Ukip has now made more net gains in local
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After last night Ukip has now made more net gains in local by-elections in 2013 than Labour
UKipwin NE Lincolnshire- Humberston & New Waltham from CON.UKIP 1098, CON 738 votes, LAB 470, LD 311. 3rd local gain in 4 wks
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Apart from Osbrowne of course.
Poor old tea party tories, they never EVER learn.
I doubt it will change much though. The general public have never thought of George Osborne as a charmer, so this story is pretty much priced into the market.
Luckily the Labourites are too busy with the class war to notice.
@MSmithsonPB Interesting, public agrees with Tories on welfare, but not backing them. Old story of liking Tory policies but not Tory Party
"I'd certainly notice as a passenger if the driver had parked in a disabled bay."
If you are not in the car at the time? How do you do that?
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4874140/Nick-Clegg-twice-saved-IDS-Universal-Credit-welfare-plan.html
Yes, a good evening for Ukip and remember Ukip is the ONLY party now gaining members as opposed to losing them.
Osborne's incompetence matters hugely, it's why little Ed and labour have a 10 point lead. Osborne's voter toxicity could actually get even worse. Never underestimate his master strategising ability to turn almost anything into an incompetent omnishambles.
What this Conservative leadership doesn’t seem to understand is – and their personal backgrounds are important here – is that many Conservative voters have no love for the Conservative party.
In particular those lower down the socioeconomic chain who often associate the Conservative party with the rich / bosses / bankers / landowners / officers.
These people do vote Conservative but only because they hate Labour and the things they associate with ‘Labour’.
Now if in their opinion the Conservative party shows itself insufficiently anti-’Labour’ and a new party arises which looks like it will be and perhaps will also be more competant then it will pick up these voters.
The Conservative leadership were reported as thinking that they could target the 'metropolitans' politically as their own voters 'had nowhere else to go' - the sort of crass, complacent miscalculation which could only have come from a Notting Hill dinner party.
Most people prefer those more compassionate than themselves. it's the Tory dilemma; However hard headed people think they need to be they are always seen as hard hearted bastards.
It's all Thatcher's doing and they have as much chance of changing it as Gerald Ratner has of reopening as Asprey's
More YouGov
Is Lead by People of Real Ability:
Labour Voters say: 45% Labour; 41% None of them.
Is prepared to make tough and unpopular decisions:
Labour Voters say: 37% Cons; 26% LAB; 3% LD: 22% None; 11% DK
What Britain increasingly resembles is an old drunkard who is continually asking for free drinks on the rationale that he needs them to ‘drink himself sober’.
Likewise every problem we have will be solved by giving ourselves more money.
Permanent trade deficit – give us more money
Falling productivity – give us more money
Collapsing infrastucture – give us more money
Soaring debt – give us more money
The only variance is within the ‘give us more money’ crowd – those on the right want tax cuts, those on the left want more public spending.
We have as much chance of spending ourselves rich as the old drunkard has of drinking himself sober.
Mr/Miss Millsy, that's a rather good post. I would offer you a Malteser, but I've eaten them all.
Kipper membership numbers are also clearly being helped by Cammie every time he bangs on about immigration or the EU.
He and Osbrowne seem intent on boosting the fortunes of almost every other party bar their own. Generous of them.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22034083
I must admit, I was wondering about backing Hamilton at 3.45 to finish in the top 3. However, he hasn't done that for a little while.
Vettel, I think, is nearly guaranteed to be top 3. Alonso and Raikkonen will provide very stiff competition for Hamilton too, and Webber could as well [well...]. I'll probably wait until the end of the fly-aways. Just two races in, especially with one sometimes wet, at two very different circuits is not really enough to properly assess the cars.
Calm down dear as Cammie would tell you. That lead simply isn't helping them where it mattters most, namely VI. Osbrowne's incompetence is undeniably toxic and resulted in this.
If you seriously think Osbrowne is an asset for an election campaign, which will clearly be dominated by the economy, then you are as laughably out of touch as the incompetent fops.
People want governments which are nice to them but nasty to foreigners.
The voters Cameron is losing / has lost / didn't get in the first place think Cameron wants to be nasty to them and nice to foreigners.
"I would expect that it was very obvious to him as he walked up to the car "
So it was only obvious to him after the fact. Why did he not know in advance his driver would park badly? How can he continue as chancellor?
Back in the Real World...
What should he have done at that point?
Got in the car and driven away? Insisted the car was driven away before he got in?
The YouGov Household Economic Activity Tracker (HEAT) index climbed 2½ points to 100.4 in March, the highest reading in almost three years. Despite talk of an impending triple-dip recession the HEAT index has risen 6% since the start of the year.
Crucially, the index is above 100 for the first time since June 2010. A reading above 100 indicates that more households think their economic situation is getting better than getting worse.
Stephen Harmston, head of YouGov SixthSense, said: “A majority of British workers are feeling secure in their jobs, and many believe that business will either accelerate or hold steady over the coming months. Because of this we are seeing a cautiously optimistic outlook at the grassroots of the British economy.”
British employees are detecting a pick-up in economic momentum at their places of work. When asked how they thought the level of business activity had changed between February and March, more than one in four (26%) said it increased, the greatest proportion since the survey began in February 2010. Meanwhile, 59% reported steady activity, with the remaining 15% saying it deteriorated.
Employees are also optimistic about the coming financial year, with 37% of respondents expecting business activity to be higher in a year’s time, compared with just 14% who think it will be lower.
A solid majority (59%) of British workers say they feel secure in their jobs, and that they are ‘unlikely’ to be laid off. Only 18% of respondents think it is ‘likely’ that they will lose their job in the next 12 months, which is a significant improvement on the 20% who said they were likely to be made redundant last month.
Dominic White, Chief European Economist at ASR, said: “British households appear to be getting a bit more optimistic about the prospects for UK business, and this goes hand in hand with a feeling of greater job security among workers. For many households, finances are still tight, but if business activity continues to improve and job security holds steady then this could provide households with the confidence they need to start spending a bit more, which is crucial to getting the economy moving again.”
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/04/04/
@clarebalding: Narrowing down Grand National shortlist to Chicago Grey, Seabass, Teaforthree, Rare Bob and Oscar Time as a lively outsider (66-1)
1. We've splurged lots of money and people are no better off
2. The government has no more money to splurge
3. Let's see if companies are as stupid as government
4. If they are we get more tax receipts and can spend it on some more garbage.
In the Climate Change debate, as with so many others, terminology is key. When asked whether "the world is becoming warmer as a result of human activity", 39% of the UK population agrees, down from 43% in June 2012, and 55% in 2008.
However, when asked whether "the world's climate is changing as a result of human activity", 53% of the population agrees.
The shift in public support away from the idea that Earth is getting "warmer" however, is most likely explained (as some recent studies have suggested) by the current never-ending winter.
Clear majorities of Brits believe that weather today is colder, wetter, more extreme and less predictable than it has been in decades past: 61% think the weather has gotten colder and more extreme, 69% say it's gotten less predictable, and nearly three quarters (71%) of the British public think weather in the UK has gotten wetter.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/04/03/climate-change/
Unluckily for him, timbo beat him to it, luckily for him nobody came into the polytechnic IT lab.
With all the other stories yesterday, who *really* thinks someone moving Osborne's car to a disabled space by mistake is page 1 news?
Lots of numpties who post here obviously
As flattering as you may think it is I'm afraid I shall have to gently rebuff your clumsy overtures. Perhaps one of the tea-party tories could oblige you in your desperate quest for an intimate friend?
Why didn't it wait to find out all the facts?
The motoring organisation said official government figures showed 17 billion litres were sold last year compared to 22 billion in 2007.
The AA said rising prices and greater use of smaller and diesel vehicles had contributed to the fall in consumption.
Combined with an increase in the sale of diesel, total vehicle fuel sales fell by 9% over the past five years.
The AA said the decrease was the equivalent of 35 days of business being lost since the start of the economic crisis.
Diesel sales increased from 14 billion litres in 2007 to 16 billion litres in 2012.
More recently, petrol sales decreased from 18.27 billion litres in 2011 to 17.42 billion litres last year.
'Huge toll'
Petrol Retailers Association chairman Brian Madderson said: "It's amazing to think that just four years ago, in spring 2009, petrol was £1 a litre. For £20 you could get 20 litres. Today when you spend £20 at the forecourt you get less than 15 litres.
"In 2000, 10% of new cars were diesel. Last year, over 50% of new cars were diesel and with that kind of change, and motorists cutting back on discretionary spending we do see right across the UK petrol sales in steep decline."
AA president Edmund King said: "Greater take-up of diesel cars and smaller petrol vehicles has contributed to this overall decline in UK fuel sales over the long term.
"However, soaring pump prices have taken a huge toll on petrol sales more recently - during the 10p-a-litre price surges last March and October, pump sales of petrol fell by up to 5%."
"The trouble is that, with global economic recovery, the stock market will predict greater oil and fuel demand and push up commodity values accordingly.
He added: "Drivers' fuel consumption and retail survivability are already precarious. What will happen when the speculators pump themselves up with bullish sentiment and send prices soaring yet again?"
The AA highlighted figures produced by the Department of Energy and Climate Change.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22035949
You shall have to ask them yourself Harry as sadly I cannot serve as an 'agony aunt' to you for your own convoluted 'friendships' with the chaps in D wing.
Maybe they were all watching Horizon on BBC 4 this week about Weather Weirding.
It was interesting because there was far, far less about anthropomorphic global warming than would have been taken for granted just a couple of years ago. That clearly had been put back on the unproven pile.
What there was, which people will find a lot more convincing, was a greater emphasis on climate change with a different perspective. So it was pointed out by reference to ice samples that the last 8000 years whilst human civilisation developed were a remarkably stable time with the odd incident like the mini ice age 300 years ago; that hurricances were increasing in their frequency and power (not sure how up to date that was); the influence of the sun on our climate and our current weather and how the sensible thing to do now was to build and prepare for greater extremities in the weather.
It struck me as an attempt to describe a new consensus on climate that made many of the old arguments fairly redundant. It would be nice if this fed into debate about the climate levy.
Is that why you hate newspapers so much ? Do you dream of starting your own paper that will show those evil toffs up in a bad light - and will bring the truth to the sad little uneducated peons - who if only they new the facts would never write for a horrid right wing party ever again ??
"Look at ye olde channel 4 data oh pitiful peasants - behold the truth from my own hand.."
Obviously a number of posters on here would rather talk about parking and sweep under the carpet the depravity of a benefit funded childkiller. But that's PB for you, I suppose.
Lots of people quickly park in free disabled bays or double yellow lines to rush to get something but none of those people are deeply unpopular CotE's or people with a hungry media looking at their every move.
Dumb stuff from Osborne. You can spin it all you like (and I agree it isn't a story, really) but that won't stop the 24hr news media dragging up quotes from every disabled person in the northern hemisphere about how arrogant and shameful it is.
The limiting factor for UKIP in the past has been the fact that they consisted almost entirely of arm chair generals and no foot soldiers giving them no ground operation. Success in local elections could begin to change that but they have an incredibly long way to go to match the Lib dems, for example.
If they were able to tap into the general disaffection in May this would be their best chance, possibly ever, to put down some real roots and become a serious part of the political scene as opposed to a demonstration of Labour ineptitude.
If the chancellor was not driving, and was not in the car when it was parked, what exactly did he do that was boneheaded?
"Chancellor should never get out of a car driven by someone else"
That is the level of debate the Leftards are reduced to?
"Dumb stuff from Osborne"
What dumb stuff did Osborne, not his driver, do?
That charmlessness is a crippling handicap for the Tories. Take this week: they clearly think they are on the popular side of the benefits argument, but when Osborne makes a widely-reported speech on the issue the impact on VI is zero (or negative, if you go by the latest twitch in YouGov).
The public is following politics with detached interest, akin to people keeping an eye on the tennis while making lunch. They note that someone scores a point, but it doen't affect what appears to be their settled intention to change the governhment at the first opportunity.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/4508014/The-Sun-says-Building-for-the-future.html
"LABOUR predictably blew a fuse yesterday as George Osborne suggested the trial of child killer Mick Philpott highlighted the need for welfare reform.
Ed Balls accused the Chancellor of “cynical” exploitation.
Union boss Len McCluskey said he had “demonised” anyone who was on benefits.
These are knee-jerk reactions that owe everything to political point-scoring and add precisely nothing to a vital debate about Britain’s future.
No one is saying the welfare system created the monster that is Philpott. He is an evil man with a history of appalling violence that is utterly unrelated to his personal circumstances.
But his six children died because of his desperation to continue milking a lax benefits system that allowed him to pocket close to £4,000 a month.
A system that actively encourages an unscrupulous minority to view their children as cash-cows providing no-questions-asked access to public funds.
The investigation into the Philpott children’s tragedy revealed a depravity and parental callousness that shocked the nation.
It also shone a light on a world in which welfare is seen not as a helping hand when things get tough — but as a lifelong subsidy.
Of course Balls and McCluskey don’t want to talk about that — because it doesn’t suit their political agenda.
Which is truly cynical."
"more fun will be how do they react to "change". if we're getting colder weather how does shutting down power generation help us when we need to turn up the central heating" ?
Tut, tut. Obviously you do not worship at the altar of the Green/EU god. In fact you are a prime candidate to be sent away to the re-education camp where you will have to knit your own night-cap, wooly jumpers, bed socks, long johns etc.
Seriously though, we all have to learn to use less energy and to use it more efficiently. It will be a long time before enough renewables come on stream to replace hydrocarbon energy sources - for that you have thank the inactivity by the last HMG and by recent Energy Secs.
@Sun_Politics: "Philpott's six children died because of his desperation to continue milking a lax benefits system", The Sun Says http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/article4508014.ece
Benefit cuts are fuelling abuse of disabled people, say charities
Rising public resentment blamed on government focus on alleged 'scrounger' fraud and inflammatory media coverage
The government's focus on alleged fraud and overclaiming to justify cuts in disability benefits has caused an increase in resentment and abuse directed at disabled people, as they find themselves being labelled as scroungers, six of the country's biggest disability groups have warned.
Some of the charities say they are now regularly contacted by people who have been taunted on the street about supposedly faking their disability and are concerned the climate of suspicion could spill over into violence or other hate crimes.
While the charities speaking out – Scope, Mencap, Leonard Cheshire Disability, the National Autistic Society, Royal National Institute of Blind People (RNIB), and Disability Alliance – say inflammatory media coverage has played a role in this, they primarily blame ministers and civil servants for repeatedly highlighting the supposed mass abuse of the disability benefits system, much of which is unfounded.
At the same time, they say, the focus on "fairness for taxpayers" has fostered the notion that disabled people are a separate group who don't contribute.
Scope's regular polling of people with disabilities shows that in September two-thirds said they had experienced recent hostility or taunts, up from 41% four months before. In the last poll almost half said attitudes towards them had deteriorated in the past year.
Tom Madders, head of campaigns at the National Autistic Society, said: "The Department for Work and Pensions is certainly guilty of helping to drive this media narrative around benefits, portraying those who receive benefits as workshy scroungers or abusing a system that's really easy to cheat."
He added that ministers such as the work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, were being "deeply irresponsible" in conflating Disability Living Allowance (DLA), which helps disabled people hold down jobs, and Employment and Support Allowance (ESA), a payment for those unable to work. This "scrounger rhetoric" was already having an impact on people's lives, Madders said, citing a woman who rang the charity to say a neighbour who formerly gave lifts to her autistic child had stopped doing so following press articles about disabled people receiving free cars under a government scheme.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/feb/05/benefit-cuts-fuelling-abuse-disabled-people
Poster boys for the nasty party.
Tut, tut. Obviously you do not worship at the altar of the Green/EU god. In fact you are a prime candidate to be sent away to the re-education camp where you will have to knit your own night-cap, wooly jumpers, bed socks, long johns etc.
Seriously though, we all have to learn to use less energy and to use it more efficiently. It will be a long time before enough renewables come on stream to replace hydrocarbon energy sources - for that you have thank the inactivity by the last HMG and by recent Energy Secs.
Actually I don't have anything against a sensible renewables policy on the grounds of reducing energy dependency on imports. Oil will run out and we'll be left with another huge hole in our BOP unless we find alternative energy sources.I just think renewables should stand on their own two feet without needing susbsidy. In the meantime I'm left enjoying the irony of lefties demanding everything carbon based closes down and me a rightie shouting Coal not Dole :-).
That post seems to have merged with yours , reposted
Actually I don't have anything against a sensible renewables policy on the grounds of reducing energy dependency on imports. Oil will run out and we'll be left with another huge hole in our BOP unless we find alternative energy sources.I just think renewables should stand on their own two feet without needing susbsidy. In the meantime I'm left enjoying the irony of lefties demanding everything carbon based closes down and me a rightie shouting Coal not Dole :-).
"Forecourt sales of petrol have plunged by more than 20% in five years, the AA has said.
The motoring organisation said official government figures showed 17 billion litres were sold last year compared to 22 billion in 2007.
Diesel sales increased from 14 billion litres in 2007 to 16 billion litres in 2012."
Given that Diesel cars are far more economical than those fuelled by petrol, this must surely mean that there are far more cars and vans on our roads which run on diesel as opposed to those run on petrol.
That's amazing - at least to me it is - I would have thought that overall petrol outsold diesel fuelled vehicles by at least 2:1
Given the gross enlargement of the welfare state under Gordo, the statistical likelihood is that most convicted childkillers were in receipt of benefits.
The important question is whether the culture of welfare dependency is a contributory factor or healthy for the country, to which the Left's increasingly hysterical response is OSBORNE!! IN A CAR!!!!!
It's infantile, but no more than we have come to expect.
Many people vote against a party rather than for one, so the trick is to reduce the ammunition available against you. Reducing the 50p tax rate is an example. What solid evidence is there that it increases the tax take? The posh fop argument may be silly but it has a little traction, especially when you help exaggerate it.
Labour's weakness is the hyperbole, especially from the more left wing unions and the SWP sort, and the welfare issue. Benefit-fiddling does go on, and relatively posh people denying it makes people even more angry.
No wonder UKIP is thriving.
"what Osborne should have done, when he saw the car was parked in a disabled bay....."
It wasn't that he parked in a disabled bay that particularly made me think that Osborne was behaving like a despicable Tory (I see young fit people bouncing out of cars with disabled badges all the time which is just as bad) but that he was driving one of those huge 4x4 'fu*k-off' Torymobiles.
"The voters have decided that we spend too much on welfare. Miliband must offer them more than silence in reply " "Seven out of ten people agree that the country needs to spend less on welfare. To this unanswerable fact there has come silence from the Labour Party and vituperation from the Labour movement. The party has no policy to speak of."
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/philipcollins/article3731420.ece
I am sorry Mick but if you wanted clear, unequivocal evidence of the state beyond the state that was built by the last government of charities that are dependent upon government funds and grants and have become politically motivated pressure groups seeking to drive spending of borrowed money higher you really could not do much better than that article.
It certainly makes the government's task more difficult, it makes the media coverage more hostile and it has a political effect on the standing of the government.
What they do not do is offer any solutions except spend. After the quangoes there is another layer of Labour placemen to be dismantled and professionalised, high paying charities are going to find themselves very vulnerable.
This is just getting painful
This is not good. George and his people should be spectacularly aware of every potential pitfall. Can you imagine this happening to, say, Gordon Brown, if Alastair Campbell had been in the car with him?
The Tories are on thin ice. Making reforms which are hurting. Cutting money from people who hate them anyway. If they are to carry the wider public with them through these reforms they need to tread more carefully. As Nick Palmer says below, a little charm and humility wouldn't go amiss.
Well. £26,000 is still far too high, but at least it's a start.
pfp - most lorries run on diesel, I think, and probably consume more fuel than several cars put together? Just guessing.
He wasn't driving. He wasn't in the car when it was parked.
Are you really suggesting he should never get in a car ever again in case the driver does something really stupid?
Blaming Osborne for the actions of his driver is feeble, and you know it.
Yachtgate. Traingate. Cargate.
It is not going to end his career. Give it up already.
The main point here is that the changes will benefit the thousands of feckless, baby-breeding scroungers that we are told are out there abusing the system. They have now been given further incentives to breed.
I am sorry you have a curiously tea party style understanding of things. Everyone who opposes your view must be members of the librul meeja or a vested interest of the 'state', is that it? The 'Big Society' rhetoric passed you by did it? Understandable since the voter certainly didn't find it remotely plausable considering it's source.
Who do you suppose the voters trust more on such things?
MPs like Osbrowne and Cammie or disability charities?
Which just shows how getting the govewrnment involved in micro decisions is nonsense. Politicians and civil servants can never foresee all the unintended consequences of their actions. Get people in to work let them keep their money and let them look after themselves.
BTW You simply have it wrong on quangos. It is yet another example of govt. incompetence.
A simpler system of lower taxation and fewer handouts would diminish the scope for abuse, reduce the cost to the taxpayer and be far more transparent. In fairness to the Coalition, they have cut income tax (effectively).
I'd extend that principle to MPs, too. Give them a pay rise to circa £100,000 and no expenses at all beyond a small number of staff.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/car-manufacturers/land-rover/9785115/Jaguar-Land-Rovers-record-year-in-the-UK.html
"All this from a car-maker that was sold by Ford in 2008 to Indian company Tata, and was then refused state loans from the UK Government in 2009. It was hard to imagine that by 2012 JLR could be on target for pre-tax profits of £1.5 billion, but that's exactly what's happened."
Because whilst plenty of people probably wanted to see Straw out and plenty don't like Osborne to cast so much shit over Ministers due to their driver's actions is quite pathetic.
The weakness remains they have yet to make the kind of simplification of benefits that need to happen. IDS has made some progress but he still has a mountain to move.
"most lorries run on diesel, I think, and probably consume more fuel than several cars put together? Just guessing."
A normal 44 tonne artic is 8-10mpg. A Special types low loader is about 4mpg