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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories’ current odds-on status in Copeland doesn’t square
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories’ current odds-on status in Copeland doesn’t square with the party’s rubbish performances since GE2015
This latest betting move has been sparked off by press reports of LAB party canvas data. That, if true, came presumably from information gleaned before the candidate, was selected. Now that a local doctor and anti-Corbynite has been given the job then things could be different.
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Labour are on course to lose in the upcoming Copeland by-election.
According to their own canvass returns, Labour support has dropped by a third in the Cumbrian seat.
Internal documents seen by the Daily Telegraph show dwindling support for Jeremy Corbyn is behind the drop.
Support for Labour is believed to have dropped by a third since the 2015 general election.
A senior Labour source said Mr Corbyn’s “incompetence” as a party leader was repeatedly coming up as a concern for voters on the doorstep.
The returns suggest that the Tories will take Copeland – a seat held by Labour for 80 years – when voters pick their new MP next month.
It would be the first time the Government has won a seat off the official opposition since the Tories took Mitcham and Morden, London, in 1982
Wrong choice when he has a big majority in the constituency next to Copeland.
America first.
Abroad last.
Why don't we just live in Italy?
All our joint assets are in the UK. If I died the tax implications for my wife would be horrendous. I cannot allow my wife to be exposed to that kind of uncertainty.
As for Stoke, the Party has had Councillors there in the past and finished second in the Parliamentary seat (I believe). It's also well placed for London and Birmingham activists to attend.
Stoke looks a four sided race - no reason why the Conservatives might not end up fourth.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-13/australia-canada-nz-support-eu-style-free-movement-poll-says/7242634
NB I am not a lawyer. But ...
would the UK govt. behaviour breach the Human Rights Act and the right to family life, if the govt. forces your wife to spend time away from her father in order to safeguard her right to live with you?
The right-wing press has tried hard to discredit the HRA, but it will still be there after the UK leaves the EU. OTOH someone in the same boat may already have tried this avenue. My sympathies go out to you ...
[Ahem, that's Goldsmith, not you
@tnewtondunn
Senior Labour figures fear they could come 4th in Copeland by-election"
Edit: posted the press release above
Stoke - On Brexit/On past leadership positions re: Ireland
Copeland - On Nuclear
Entirely possible to see two Labour losses here. Entirely possible to see two Govt gains. Though the latter VERY unlikely.
That said, I suggest Mr @tyson talks to a good immigration lawyer or two before he does anything drastic. It's not the time for amateur advice and anecdote on a politics blog. Hope things work out for the best Sir.
Here's the Canadian question:
The Canadian question example: Currently British citizens have the right to live and work in other European Union (EU) countries and EU citizens have the right to come and live and work in Britain. Would you support or oppose Canadian citizens having similar freedom of movement rules with Britain, New Zealand and Australia if adopted Canadians citizens would be able to live and work in Britain, New Zealand, and Australia and their citizens would have the right to come and live and work in Canada.
https://www.thercs.org/assets/Press-Releases/UK-polling-release-embargoed-13.03.16-1.pdf
Will probably end around 2024 with the creation of a new centrist party.
Brexit will destroy the Good Friday Agreement says Gerry Adams.
A "hear hear" just wasn't enough!
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/20/opinion/theresa-mays-global-britain-is-baloney.html
But Labour are now neither strong or a decent opposition.
But my point is that compared to Italy (or indeed most EU members) we're doing much better in most areas.
If I were her I'd get the Commons to vote on the one-liner bill about a week before the Thursday.
I have been to over 35 countries
Lived overseas for 3 years on 2 different continents
I worked for a French firm for nearly 5 years and whilst not fluent could give a 10 minute presentation in French
Oh and I am the son of an immigrant.
Yes, ALL of us Leavers are Racist, Xenophobic, ignorant, Little Englanders.
Keep telling yourself you are superior in thought and deed, if you do it often enough you will believe it-but it doesn't make it true.
The truly ignorant people are those, like you, who cannot and will not contemplate that others hold views different to your own for what they regard are reasonable and principled reasons.
Alexander Downer, Australia's high commissioner to the UK, said the country would want better access for business people working in the UK before reaching a post-Brexit deal.
Mr Downer told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that Australia's access for businesses had often been a part of its free trade negotiations.
"It might just make it a bit simpler actually," he said.
"For example, an Australian company that invests in the UK might want to bring some of its executives to the UK.
"That can be done with what are called tier 2 visas, but maybe that could be made a little bit easier.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38704325
https://www.conservatives.com/copelandlocal
Lib Dems are in a taxi despite their council gains.. There are some protest votes and stay at homes and Labour are just risible. Frankly its quite worrying that we have a Govt with no real opposition.
I was just pointing out that by elections are not pointers to Westminster elections, not in my opinion anyway.
I can't see the LDs winning with her as a candidate though. Some Corbynite, and they'd perhaps have had a decent chance.
These are both great by-elections for betting!
I sympathise with your plight, but it is a first-world plight. There are tons of migrants in Tuscany who would love to have your problem. They could also, surely, be paid fairly affordable sums to act as carers for your inlaws?
Canada is probably the loosest of the three: I think global immigration has run far higher there - without the heavy bias to the UK that Australia and NZ still has - and the presence of Quebec pulls Canadian governance institutionally to the left.
But places like the Maritimes, rural Ontario, Victoria and Alberta are still very pro-British.
And he knows full well I voted Leave.