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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Trump, Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt feature in the big
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Trump, Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt feature in the big stories overnight
.@michaelgove invites @realDonaldTrump to say UK will be front of the queue for a trade deal with US. PEOTUS declines pic.twitter.com/G5mUTCSNA2
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With such business nous, Hunt should put the NHS on a commercial footing.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/820765506370150400
I have sympathies with that view.
But the comments tonight do concern me.
This ain't going to be Reagan or Thatcher, or FDR and Churchill, though you could argue the lend lease deal was the worst trade deal we've signed in our history, we finally paid it off 60 years after WWII ended.
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-15/trump-calls-nato-obsolete-and-dismisses-eu-in-german-interview
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oncidium#/media/File:Oncidium_excavatum_RTBG.jpg
What benefit does the US get from a trade deal that is beneficial to the UK?
Trade deals are done because they are win-win. If they're not win-win, they won't be done.
The UK perhaps has up to a quarter of the EU's economy in services, so it'd be done for the same reasons TTIP was done: to boost both the UK and US economies in services trade.
I imagine it'd be focused on non-tariff barriers, ease of visas for business travel, and temporary working, and removing customs duties.
But he is not wrong there.
It's going to be a hell of a ride.
I still think that's value.
He built a business 20 years ago, 10 years ago he gave up all day to day input into it and his investment is in a blind trust i.e. he did everything right, which is fairly uncommon for politicians.
Despite all of that, it now it is being used as a stick to beat him with. His current job (mis)managing the NHS and criticism of it has absolutely nothing to do with this.
A lowering of UK food standards to US levels, an opening of UK public services to US multinationals using ISDS challenges. A continued restriction of any UK opportunities at the US state level eg Californian motor regulations. A US/UK TTIP would be a disaster.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4122098/amp/Union-boss-Southern-Rail-strikes-pledges-bring-Theresa-tells-used-hour-early-hate-Thatcher-longer.html?client=ms-android-orange-gb
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/donald-trump-interview-brexit-britain-trade-deal-europe-queen-5m0bc2tns
Serbia was attacked by the Austro-Hungarian Empire during WW1 and by the Germans during WWII. The former Yugoslavian countries that left it behind as Yugoslavia broke up went to the EU.
So for the past century Serbia has been at war with Germany or its avatars several times, and allied with Russia or its equivalents.
I have an expectation that Donald Trump will be the worst thing to have happened to free trade in many decades.
Serbia officially applied for European Union membership on 22 December 2009,[6] and the European Commission recommended making it an official candidate on 12 October 2011. After the vote of the 27 EU foreign ministers on 28 February 2012, where with 26 votes for and 1 vote against, a candidate status recommendation was issued, and Serbia received full candidate status on 1 March. On 28 June 2013 the European Council endorsed the Council of Ministers conclusions and recommendations to open accession negotiations with Serbia.[7][8] In December 2013 the Council of the European Union approved opening negotiations on Serbia's accession in January 2014,[9] and the first Intergovernmental Conference was held on 21 January at the European Council in Brussels.[10]
https://twitter.com/PaulineHansonOz/status/820774071612805120
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_the_European_Union
No comment needed
Speaks volumes
William Hill have Labor at 1.33 to win the WA election which looks suspiciously like free money.
The thing that scares me most about Donald Trump is that he is reflexively anti-free trade. In the late 1920s, the Smoot Hawey Act was passed to protect US industries from foreign competition. Too many jobs were lost due to cheap imports. Other nations reacted by increasing their own tariffs, world trade collapsed, and The Great Depression ensued.
Donald Trump's Border Tax is Smoot Hawey, only worse. It is equivalent to - depending on how you count it - something between a 5 and 20% tax on all imports. And it applies to all, free trade agreement or not.
What is dumb - of course - is that other countries will react by imposing their own Border Profit Tax. And the biggest losers, by a country mile, from this would be US firms. Imagine Apple paying the UK government 20% of the value of each iPhone sold in the UK to compensate it for the taxes lost by the iPhone not being built in the UK!
But, of course, such a move - if replicated everywhere - would dramatically increase the costs of doing business across borders. We in the UK are a nation defined by trade. And we are a nation with high value add services, which would be hit the most.
I hope Congress stands up and says "this is stupid". But, can they? Trump's tax cuts are predicated on bringing in hundreds of billions by taxing Glaxo for importing drugs into the US, or ARM for microprocessor licenses.
I hope I'm wrong. But every day makes me more scared that I'm right. And I fear that we in the UK will be among the most negatively impacted.
Despite all you've said about how we weren't comfortable with the political aspect, our position in the treaties is secure and surely this is not a sensible time to be pulling out.
I am genuinely terrified about the UK economic outlook, in a way I simply haven't been for a long time.
If ever there was proof needed that arguments don't change people's minds...
Assuming you voted leave - you seem close to being the first?
https://youtube.com/watch?v=2V8TO6y0IR4
Well that's alright then, smart trade arrangements for the US and dumb trade arrangements for everyone else. All this coming out at the same time as we trigger Article 50 to leave the EU. A "perfect storm" for our negotiating team. There is no need for the European side to offer us anything other than a "hard" Norway/Swiss deal because they know we are not going to get better anywhere else as trade barriers across the world start to go up.
Is there a betting market on Parliament approving the negotiated Brexit deal? I suspect we might find invoking Article 50 turns out to be the equivalent of walking through a revolving rather than exit door.
Even if we get Brexit fudge where we get a 'leave in name only' type deal then you end up with a slim majority coalition of liberal leavers and remainers running the country - IE the 'status quo', and an embittered, angry opposition screaming betrayal that builds up support and eventually overthrows it. Political chaos for a generation.
Sometimes I'd much rather the leavers took back control and be in a minority insurgency holding them to account than part of an unsustainable status quo.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/01/08/the-consequences-of-what-has-already-happened-and-the-consequences-of-what-is-yet-to-come/
The last couple of days' news seems to fit with it well.
This is a company that he founded and worked to run before he become an MP, he did the right thing and placed his shares in trust and has had no input into the company since he joined the government, no-one is suggesting anything inappropriate about his shareholding, dividends or cash windfall from the sale.
Donald Trump was right when he said that the British don't like success.
The job of the US President is to get the best possible deal for the US.
Roosevelt was perfectly happy to fight to the last Briton if that spared American lives.
It's his job
It may be true, or it may be the CIA making stuff up. They certainly benefit from the leak.
"Did you get a fair trade deal here?". Well to tell you the truth in all this excitement I kinda lost track myself. But this being the USA, the most powerful trading nation in the world, you've gotta ask yourself one question. "Do you feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?
Meanwhile I note the pound has gone under $1.20 - even as an employee of an exporter thats too low !
Under the Tories. Brexit needs to be gone through with, but Jesus - $1.20 under the fricking Conservatives.......
Maybe the truth is between Merkel's million refugees, our spineless pre-brexit leadership who talked out both sides of their mouth and Trump we were always screwed.
I may even have spelt it right