"Mr Corbyn is facing up to six by-elections this year, with other contests in Leigh, where Andy Burnham is quitting to stand for mayor of Greater Manchester, and in Liverpool Walton, where Steve Rotheram is leaving to stand for mayor of Liverpool. There are also concerns among the Parliamentary Labour party that two other MPs could stand down this year because of ill health."
Nothing is going to change at by-elections - it's not how the UK does its politics. Nothing will change if Lab win all of them or if they lose all of them. It's the GE where the change will come. Nothing will change in terms of Jezza's position that is.
btw just looked on Betfair for prices and got a shock. Lab at 2.7, Cons fav . Of course I was looking at Copeland..
They should be expected to do well here I agree. If they don't it will be v disappointing. The others Mike lists are nonsense.
I loved the write up on here when the lib Dems came 2nd in Witney!!! Praise was heaped upon them, yet When Ukip used to do that it was an abject failure!
Prepare to be disappointed then Isam. The only reason this seat is not rock-safe for Labour is because of their candidate - a rude, arrogant and lazy outsider who has not impressed any of them with his ability despite the much-quoted doctorate from Cambridge and who got the seat in the most blatant stitch up imaginable because London wanted a 'media star' with the right contacts (including family contacts of course) rather than somebody capable who knew the seat.
His performance as Shadow Education Secretary was utterly pathetic and made me realise things could be worse than they were under Gove and Morgan. When he wasn't making speeches that contradicted his own policies or writing vacuous rubbish like this, he was basically bleating about how he would be much nicer than Gove, honestly he would, although he had exactly the same policies based upon the same mindless arrogance coupled to a limited grasp of reality. It earned him a rather unkind nickname in the profession, based upon the substitution of the second consonant for that H. Quite what it was unkind to, I'll leave up to you.
To be blunt, in case you haven't guessed, I do not rate Hunt and while there are many reasons to slate Corbyn getting rid of deadwood like him would actually be no bad thing. The real irony is that almost all the criticism I have levelled at Hunt could also be levelled at Corbyn.
The Liberal Democrats might have a chance in a low turnout election but UKIP will have done pretty well if they come third. Anything better than 2-1 on with Labour should be value even with Corbyn at the helm.
(Disclaimer - I know Gary Elsby slightly and have respect for him: although I disagree with many of his views, I was and still am outraged at his being passed over for Hunt, which may colour my views. I do not live in the seat although I do visit it from time to time.)
They should be expected to do well here I agree. If they don't it will be v disappointing. The others Mike lists are nonsense.
I loved the write up on here when the lib Dems came 2nd in Witney!!! Praise was heaped upon them, yet When Ukip used to do that it was an abject failure!
Prepare to be disappointed then Isam. The only reason this seat is not rock-safe for Labour is because of their candidate - a rude, arrogant and lazy outsider who has not impressed any of them with his ability despite the much-quoted doctorate from Cambridge and who got the seat in the most blatant stitch up imaginable because London wanted a 'media star' with the right contacts (including family contacts of course) rather than somebody capable who knew the seat.
His performance as Shadow Education Secretary was utterly pathetic and made me realise things could be worse than they were under Gove and Morgan. When he wasn't making speeches that contradicted his own policies or writing vacuous rubbish like this, he was basically bleating about how he would be much nicer than Gove, honestly he would, although he had exactly the same policies based upon the same mindless arrogance coupled to a limited grasp of reality. It earned him a rather unkind nickname in the profession, based upon the substitution of the second consonant for that H. Quite what it was unkind to, I'll leave up to you.
To be blunt, in case you haven't guessed, I do not rate Hunt and while there are many reasons to slate Corbyn getting rid of deadwood like him would actually be no bad thing. The real irony is that almost all the criticism I have levelled at Hunt could also be levelled at Corbyn.
The Liberal Democrats might have a chance in a low turnout election but UKIP will have done pretty well if they come third. Anything better than 2-1 on with Labour should be value even with Corbyn at the helm.
(Disclaimer - I know Gary Elsby slightly and have respect for him: although I disagree with many of his views, I was and still am outraged at his being passed over for Hunt, which may colour my views. I do not live in the seat although I do visit it from time to time.)
They should be expected to do well here I agree. If they don't it will be v disappointing. The others Mike lists are nonsense.
I loved the write up on here when the lib Dems came 2nd in Witney!!! Praise was heaped upon them, yet When Ukip used to do that it was an abject failure!
Prepare to be disappointed then Isam. The only reason this seat is not rock-safe for Labour is because of their candidate - a rude, arrogant and lazy outsider who has not impressed any of them with his ability despite the much-quoted doctorate from Cambridge and who got the seat in the most blatant stitch up imaginable because London wanted a 'media star' with the right contacts (including family contacts of course) rather than somebody capable who knew the seat.
His performance as Shadow Education Secretary was utterly pathetic and made me realise things could be worse than they were under Gove and Morgan. When he wasn't making speeches that contradicted his own policies or writing vacuous rubbish like this, he was basically bleating about how he would be much nicer than Gove, honestly he would, although he had exactly the same policies based upon the same mindless arrogance coupled to a limited grasp of reality. It earned him a rather unkind nickname in the profession, based upon the substitution of the second consonant for that H. Quite what it was unkind to, I'll leave up to you.
To be blunt, in case you haven't guessed, I do not rate Hunt and while there are many reasons to slate Corbyn getting rid of deadwood like him would actually be no bad thing. The real irony is that almost all the criticism I have levelled at Hunt could also be levelled at Corbyn.
The Liberal Democrats might have a chance in a low turnout election but UKIP will have done pretty well if they come third. Anything better than 2-1 on with Labour should be value even with Corbyn at the helm.
(Disclaimer - I know Gary Elsby slightly and have respect for him: although I disagree with many of his views, I was and still am outraged at his being passed over for Hunt, which may colour my views. I do not live in the seat although I do visit it from time to time.)
I have backed Labour at 5/6 and the Lib Dems at 20/1. All the money seems to be for UKIP though
We won the referendum, I dont care that much about parliamentary seats. I meant it will be disappointing for UKIP, not me, I don't think they can make too many excuses for failure.
If the Liberals campaign in Stoke mainly on Brexit, they will win regardless of their previous history there. They have to emphasise they will push for the single market and staying in it. The Tories, UKIP and Corbyn's Labour will be pro-Brexit.
Chesterfield feels like the North, but Derby feels like the Midlands, even though they're both in the same county, about 20 miles apart.
First-ever post here after years of happy lurking. Hello everyone. Where The North Starts is a pet subject, as although I live in Scotland these days I was brought up in Swanwick in Derbyshire, which is pretty much exactly halfway between Chesterfield and Derby - about 12 miles to each along the old A61. There are lots of ways of trying to nail down the North/Midlands boundary, and I don't think there's any firm answer although there are clear definitions on either side, eg all the Pennines are in the North and anything south of the Trent is not in the North.
Over the years, especially after I'd moved away from Swanwick, I came to believe that it was a village pretty much bang on the boundary, and that I was from the North but only just. Walk out of Swanwick west or north, towards Pentrich or Crich, and it feels Northern immediately - rural, stone-built cottages, fields, gently increasing hills etc. Walk the other way, east or south, towards Riddings or Ripley, and it feels (to me at least) Midland: joined-up terraced houses, generally post-industrial sprawl-ish, flattening-out landscapewise and so on.
There's a theory, which which I agree, that the hill on which Crich Stand stands is the last of the Pennines, and Swanwick is only about an hour's brisk walk from Crich, through Northern-ish countryside all the way, so that's good enough for me. Wherever the boundary is, however, it's not a straight east-west line, for sure - it's a wiggly tilted thing that quite possibly contains loops and doublings-back.
Anyway, I agree with AndyJS: Chesterfield is definitely Northern and Derby is definitely Midland, and the boundary comes somewhere between. The Sheffield Uni map appears to draw the boundary way too far south. And Stoke - not that I know much about it - is surely borderline Northern at best, given that it stands on the Trent.
If the Liberals campaign in Stoke mainly on Brexit, they will win regardless of their previous history there. They have to emphasise they will push for the single market and staying in it. The Tories, UKIP and Corbyn's Labour will be pro-Brexit.
They should be expected to do well here I agree. If they don't it will be v disappointing. The others Mike lists are nonsense.
I loved the write up on here when the lib Dems came 2nd in Witney!!! Praise was heaped upon them, yet When Ukip used to do that it was an abject failure!
Prepare to be disappointed then Isam. The only reason this seat is not rock-safe for Labour is because of their candidate - a rude, arrogant and lazy outsider who has not impressed any of them with his ability despite the much-quoted doctorate from Cambridge and who got the seat in the most blatant stitch up imaginable because London wanted a 'media star' with the right contacts (including family contacts of course) rather than somebody capable who knew the seat.
His performance as Shadow Education Secretary was utterly pathetic and made me realise things could be worse than they were under Gove and Morgan. When he wasn't making speeches that contradicted his own policies or writing vacuous rubbish like this, he was basically bleating about how he would be much nicer than Gove, honestly he would, although he had exactly the same policies based upon the same mindless arrogance coupled to a limited grasp of reality. It earned him a rather unkind nickname in the profession, based upon the substitution of the second consonant for that H. Quite what it was unkind to, I'll leave up to you.
To be blunt, in case you haven't guessed, I do not rate Hunt and while there are many reasons to slate Corbyn getting rid of deadwood like him would actually be no bad thing. The real irony is that almost all the criticism I have levelled at Hunt could also be levelled at Corbyn.
The Liberal Democrats might have a chance in a low turnout election but UKIP will have done pretty well if they come third. Anything better than 2-1 on with Labour should be value even with Corbyn at the helm.
(Disclaimer - I know Gary Elsby slightly and have respect for him: although I disagree with many of his views, I was and still am outraged at his being passed over for Hunt, which may colour my views. I do not live in the seat although I do visit it from time to time.)
I agree the purge of the Spadocracy is the one thing Labour is doing right at the present.
Chesterfield feels like the North, but Derby feels like the Midlands, even though they're both in the same county, about 20 miles apart.
First-ever post here after years of happy lurking. Hello everyone. Where The North Starts is a pet subject, as although I live in Scotland these days I was brought up in Swanwick in Derbyshire, which is pretty much exactly halfway between Chesterfield and Derby - about 12 miles to each along the old A61. There are lots of ways of trying to nail down the North/Midlands boundary, and I don't think there's any firm answer although there are clear definitions on either side, eg all the Pennines are in the North and anything south of the Trent is not in the North.
Over the years, especially after I'd moved away from Swanwick, I came to believe that it was a village pretty much bang on the boundary, and that I was from the North but only just. Walk out of Swanwick west or north, towards Pentrich or Crich, and it feels Northern immediately - rural, stone-built cottages, fields, gently increasing hills etc. Walk the other way, east or south, towards Riddings or Ripley, and it feels (to me at least) Midland: joined-up terraced houses, generally post-industrial sprawl-ish, flattening-out landscapewise and so on.
There's a theory, which which I agree, that the hill on which Crich Stand stands is the last of the Pennines, and Swanwick is only about an hour's brisk walk from Crich, through Northern-ish countryside all the way, so that's good enough for me. Wherever the boundary is, however, it's not a straight east-west line, for sure - it's a wiggly tilted thing that quite possibly contains loops and doublings-back.
Anyway, I agree with AndyJS: Chesterfield is definitely Northern and Derby is definitely Midland, and the boundary comes somewhere between. The Sheffield Uni map appears to draw the boundary way too far south. And Stoke - not that I know much about it - is surely borderline Northern at best, given that it stands on the Trent.
Welcome - enough of that lurking please; great post, get involved!
They should be expected to do well here I agree. If they don't it will be v disappointing. The others Mike lists are nonsense.
I loved the write up on here when the lib Dems came 2nd in Witney!!! Praise was heaped upon them, yet When Ukip used to do that it was an abject failure!
Prepare to be disappointed then Isam. The only reason this seat is not rock-safe for Labour is because of their candidate - a rude, arrogant and lazy outsider who has not impressed any of them with his ability despite the much-quoted doctorate from Cambridge and who got the seat in the most blatant stitch up imaginable because London wanted a 'media star' with the right contacts (including family contacts of course) rather than somebody capable who knew the seat.
His performance as Shadow Education Secretary was utterly pathetic and made me realise things could be worse than they were under Gove and Morgan. When he wasn't making speeches that contradicted his own policies or writing vacuous rubbish like this, he was basically bleating about how he would be much nicer than Gove, honestly he would, although he had exactly the same policies based upon the same mindless arrogance coupled to a limited grasp of reality. It earned him a rather unkind nickname in the profession, based upon the substitution of the second consonant for that H. Quite what it was unkind to, I'll leave up to you.
To be blunt, in case you haven't guessed, I do not rate Hunt and while there are many reasons to slate Corbyn getting rid of deadwood like him would actually be no bad thing. The real irony is that almost all the criticism I have levelled at Hunt could also be levelled at Corbyn.
The Liberal Democrats might have a chance in a low turnout election but UKIP will have done pretty well if they come third. Anything better than 2-1 on with Labour should be value even with Corbyn at the helm.
(Disclaimer - I know Gary Elsby slightly and have respect for him: although I disagree with many of his views, I was and still am outraged at his being passed over for Hunt, which may colour my views. I do not live in the seat although I do visit it from time to time.)
I have backed Labour at 5/6 and the Lib Dems at 20/1. All the money seems to be for UKIP though
We won the referendum, I dont care that much about parliamentary seats. I meant it will be disappointing for UKIP, not me, I don't think they can make too many excuses for failure.
I'm interested in your choice of pronoun there "they" rather than "we". Under Nuttall do you feel like a Kipper or do you think of yourself more non partisan post Brexit?
To be blunt, in case you haven't guessed, I do not rate Hunt and while there are many reasons to slate Corbyn getting rid of deadwood like him would actually be no bad thing. The real irony is that almost all the criticism I have levelled at Hunt could also be levelled at Corbyn.
The Liberal Democrats might have a chance in a low turnout election but UKIP will have done pretty well if they come third. Anything better than 2-1 on with Labour should be value even with Corbyn at the helm.
(Disclaimer - I know Gary Elsby slightly and have respect for him: although I disagree with many of his views, I was and still am outraged at his being passed over for Hunt, which may colour my views. I do not live in the seat although I do visit it from time to time.)
I agree the purge of the Spadocracy is the one thing Labour is doing right at the present.
To be fair to Corbyn as well - difficult though it is - I have so far seen no evidence that he is imposing his mates on safe seats and a fair amount of evidence to suggest he really does believe local candidates are the way forward.
While it might well cause problems should Labour ever be invited to form a government, some sort of correction to the Blair policy - he infamously got his office staff seats in Parliament, never mind his Spads - is long overdue and Labour are not the only party who would benefit from a correction.
I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.
At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.
Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.
At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.
In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.
Oldham West was in hindsight a very UKIP unfriendly seat with the large Pakistani populus there. I thought so initially, those reports of Lab getting turned away on the doorstep threw us all right off though.
Copeland is a very low chance as they finished a distant third - I've laid them for four figures there.
I think Sunderland last night had some local factors quite honestly...
This looks by far their best shot in a long old time.
In the unlikely event they do win, it won't be down to their campaigning competence.
The FT is reporting that Labour may face at least six by-elections this year. In addition to Copeland and Stoke Central, there'll be Leigh and Liverpool Walton after the Liverpool and Manchester mayoral elections (which Labour seems nailed on to win, of course,) and there are "also concerns among the Parliamentary Labour party that two other MPs could stand down this year because of ill health."
All of that's before we consider the possibility of any more Labour MPs finding something better to do elsewhere and throwing in the towel. Or any of the more sick or elderly ones succumbing to the scythe of mortality.
One wonders how frequently this has to happen before the public starts to notice the trend, and it becomes a running joke? The one thing more dangerous for Labour than being viewed as incompetent is to be regarded as genuinely ridiculous.
I don't think it is right to lump those abandoning politics (if anything a failing of the party) with by elections caused by an election victory in eg Mayoral elections (a success for the party) or due to death or ill health (which will only generate sympathy if any emotion).
For the latter two only seats lost in the by election would make the party look ridiculous.
To be blunt, in case you haven't guessed, I do not rate Hunt and while there are many reasons to slate Corbyn getting rid of deadwood like him would actually be no bad thing. The real irony is that almost all the criticism I have levelled at Hunt could also be levelled at Corbyn.
The Liberal Democrats might have a chance in a low turnout election but UKIP will have done pretty well if they come third. Anything better than 2-1 on with Labour should be value even with Corbyn at the helm.
(Disclaimer - I know Gary Elsby slightly and have respect for him: although I disagree with many of his views, I was and still am outraged at his being passed over for Hunt, which may colour my views. I do not live in the seat although I do visit it from time to time.)
I agree the purge of the Spadocracy is the one thing Labour is doing right at the present.
To be fair to Corbyn as well - difficult though it is - I have so far seen no evidence that he is imposing his mates on safe seats and a fair amount of evidence to suggest he really does believe local candidates are the way forward.
While it might well cause problems should Labour ever be invited to form a government, some sort of correction to the Blair policy - he infamously got his office staff seats in Parliament, never mind his Spads - is long overdue and Labour are not the only party who would benefit from a correction.
I think he genuinely believes in local selections. It was a pretty hard left NEC panel that approved the Copeland shortlist, and kept Troughton in despite campaigning for Smith last summer.
Nuttall needs to start a complete reorganisation of UKIP.
I may be wrong but UKIP has shown no progress since his election as leader. In fact quite the reverse, which to me is a shame, because at one time it was on the verge of becoming a real player in British politics.
Chesterfield feels like the North, but Derby feels like the Midlands, even though they're both in the same county, about 20 miles apart.
I don't like that line.
We discussed Derbyshire on here a few weeks ago, it is a curious county.
It stretches from next to Manchester to Nottingham.
The north of Derbyshire, e.g. Glossop, feels like a totally different place to just south of Derby, where I was born and raised. The character of the country changes somewhere north of Ashbourne.
I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.
At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.
Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.
At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.
In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.
Oldham West was in hindsight a very UKIP unfriendly seat with the large Pakistani populus there. I thought so initially, those reports of Lab getting turned away on the doorstep threw us all right off though.
Copeland is a very low chance as they finished a distant third - I've laid them for four figures there.
I think Sunderland last night had some local factors quite honestly...
This looks by far their best shot in a long old time.
In the unlikely event they do win, it won't be down to their campaigning competence.
I hate to say it, but Ukip's campaigning incompetence was never more starkly shown than when they threw the kitchen sink at Clacton, which was a gimme, & lost H&M by 600 votes the same day. The main men were more interested in being at the Clacton party than winning heywood I think
They should be expected to do well here I agree. If they don't it will be v disappointing. The others Mike lists are nonsense.
I loved the write up on here when the lib Dems came 2nd in Witney!!! Praise was heaped upon them, yet When Ukip used to do that it was an abject failure!
Prepare to be disappointed then Isam. The only reason this seat is not rock-safe for Labour is because of their candidate - a rude, arrogant and lazy outsider who has not impressed any of them with his ability despite the much-quoted doctorate from Cambridge and who got the seat in the most blatant stitch up imaginable because London wanted a 'media star' with the right contacts (including family contacts of course) rather than somebody capable who knew the seat.
His performance as Shadow Education Secretary was utterly pathetic and made me realise things could be worse than they were under Gove and Morgan. When he wasn't making speeches that contradicted his own policies or writing vacuous rubbish like this, he was basically bleating about how he would be much nicer than Gove, honestly he would, although he had exactly the same policies based upon the same mindless arrogance coupled to a limited grasp of reality. It earned him a rather unkind nickname in the profession, based upon the substitution of the second consonant for that H. Quite what it was unkind to, I'll leave up to you. he seat although I do visit it from time to time.)
I have backed Labour at 5/6 and the Lib Dems at 20/1. All the money seems to be for UKIP though
We won the referendum, I dont care that much about parliamentary seats. I meant it will be disappointing for UKIP, not me, I don't think they can make too many excuses for failure.
I'm interested in your choice of pronoun there "they" rather than "we". Under Nuttall do you feel like a Kipper or do you think of yourself more non partisan post Brexit?
If Ukip had folded post brexit I wouldn't have been disappointed; we won! I can understand that they have kept going though, as so many are trying to ignore the verdict.
Now we are leaving the EU, other parties can offer what before only Ukip did, so I'm open to offers, although would back Ukip if there were an election tmrw even if I dislike their/our only MP. Can't understand people who stick with a party even when they no longer agree with it though
If the Liberals campaign in Stoke mainly on Brexit, they will win regardless of their previous history there. They have to emphasise they will push for the single market and staying in it. The Tories, UKIP and Corbyn's Labour will be pro-Brexit.
Remind me again about how the changes to child benefit would cause the destruction of the Conservatives. Or was it the "bedroom tax"? While past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future confusing emotion for evidence based thinking is only rarely successful.
Chesterfield feels like the North, but Derby feels like the Midlands, even though they're both in the same county, about 20 miles apart.
I don't like that line.
We discussed Derbyshire on here a few weeks ago, it is a curious county.
It stretches from next to Manchester to Nottingham.
The north of Derbyshire, e.g. Glossop, feels like a totally different place to just south of Derby, where I was born and raised. The character of the country changes somewhere north of Ashbourne.
Chesterfield feels like the North, but Derby feels like the Midlands, even though they're both in the same county, about 20 miles apart.
I don't like that line.
We discussed Derbyshire on here a few weeks ago, it is a curious county.
It stretches from next to Manchester to Nottingham.
The north of Derbyshire, e.g. Glossop, feels like a totally different place to just south of Derby, where I was born and raised. The character of the country changes somewhere north of Ashbourne.
Northern Derbyshire is, I think real North more Manchester. I'd struggle with the argument that Bakewell, Chatsworth or even Buxton are northern. Ashbourne has a Waitrose... Derbyshire's problem is that it's a long and thin county.
What's great about the Midlands is how the accent and the place names change at Watling Street. Lots of by and thorpe name endings to the east and north, almost none to the west and south. And they speak very differently on each side of the border. That's the vikings and the saxons. Big difference between Zthe ZBlack Country and Brum too. That's the Hwicce and the Mercians. Proper Black Country is unintelligible to non-locals.
Historically the Trent was the border between the South and the North. That distinction occurred in a probate inventory from the 1590s where goods were divided between those "at hand" and those "beyond the Trent". ( That was Brian Guy of Hollin Hill in Soolbank in Sedbergh parish, WRY )
Nuttall needs to start a complete reorganisation of UKIP.
I may be wrong but UKIP has shown no progress since his election as leader. In fact quite the reverse, which to me is a shame, because at one time it was on the verge of becoming a real player in British politics.
Too many in UKIP think working class voters will just flock to their ranks. But that's not how it works. You need to put in the tough graft of policy-making, fighting council elections hard, manning stalls at the weekends, knocking on doors, getting in the local paper and so on. That was never Nigel; it needs to be Nuttall.
What's great about the Midlands is how the accent and the place names change at Watling Street. Lots of by and thorpe name endings to the east and north, almost none to the west and south. And they speak very differently on each side of the border. That's the vikings and the saxons. Big difference between Zthe ZBlack Country and Brum too. That's the Hwicce and the Mercians. Proper Black Country is unintelligible to non-locals.
Historically the Trent was the border between the South and the North. That distinction occurred in a probate inventory from the 1590s where goods were divided between those "at hand" and those "beyond the Trent". ( That was Brian Guy of Hollin Hill in Soolbank in Sedbergh parish, WRY )
That rings truer than Watling Street to me. Tamworth is basically Brummie, but Burton sounds very distinctly East Midlands to me.
Nuttall needs to start a complete reorganisation of UKIP.
I may be wrong but UKIP has shown no progress since his election as leader. In fact quite the reverse, which to me is a shame, because at one time it was on the verge of becoming a real player in British politics.
Too many in UKIP think working class voters will just flock to their ranks. But that's not how it works. You need to put in the tough graft of policy-making, fighting council elections hard, manning stalls at the weekends, knocking on doors, getting in the local paper and so on. That was never Nigel; it needs to be Nuttall.
Between the WWC and the Retired Colonels you'd think they'd have the whole country sewn up.
If the Liberals campaign in Stoke mainly on Brexit, they will win regardless of their previous history there. They have to emphasise they will push for the single market and staying in it. The Tories, UKIP and Corbyn's Labour will be pro-Brexit.
I believe that is completely wrong. Whatever anoraks on here might like to think , most people are not obsessed by Brexit and will vote on the basis of other issues.
What can you say about anyone that bothers with Lammy? Apart from the simple troughers in all parties he must be the weakest minded person ever to sit.
It's a bit scary that Soubry looked if not good, but credible, defending the established policies in the past. Her astonishing flaying around post referendum revealed her as, well, a person who might go nuts.
What can you say about anyone that bothers with Lammy? Apart from the simple troughers in all parties he must be the weakest minded person ever to sit.
It's a bit scary that Soubry looked if not good, but credible, defending the established policies in the past. Her astonishing flaying around post referendum revealed her as, well, a person who might go nuts.
Didn't she have a problem with her selection at the last GE.
"Mr Corbyn is facing up to six by-elections this year, with other contests in Leigh, where Andy Burnham is quitting to stand for mayor of Greater Manchester, and in Liverpool Walton, where Steve Rotheram is leaving to stand for mayor of Liverpool. There are also concerns among the Parliamentary Labour party that two other MPs could stand down this year because of ill health."
Nothing is going to change at by-elections - it's not how the UK does its politics. Nothing will change if Lab win all of them or if they lose all of them. It's the GE where the change will come. Nothing will change in terms of Jezza's position that is.
btw just looked on Betfair for prices and got a shock. Lab at 2.7, Cons fav . Of course I was looking at Copeland..
I'm not sure that's correct. Some By-Elections surely change politics, how about Eastbourne and Clacton?
What can you say about anyone that bothers with Lammy? Apart from the simple troughers in all parties he must be the weakest minded person ever to sit.
It's a bit scary that Soubry looked if not good, but credible, defending the established policies in the past. Her astonishing flaying around post referendum revealed her as, well, a person who might go nuts.
Didn't she have a problem with her selection at the last GE.
I'm sure that's the case, but with her handy pocket guide I understand she eventually voted for herself.
Nuttall needs to start a complete reorganisation of UKIP.
I may be wrong but UKIP has shown no progress since his election as leader. In fact quite the reverse, which to me is a shame, because at one time it was on the verge of becoming a real player in British politics.
Too many in UKIP think working class voters will just flock to their ranks. But that's not how it works. You need to put in the tough graft of policy-making, fighting council elections hard, manning stalls at the weekends, knocking on doors, getting in the local paper and so on. That was never Nigel; it needs to be Nuttall.
I am sorry but that is just you guessing & it's not true. Farage worked very hard indeed, I campaigned for Ukip in Clacton alongside him and he was knocking on every door in the crappiest town in England!
What can you say about anyone that bothers with Lammy? Apart from the simple troughers in all parties he must be the weakest minded person ever to sit.
It's a bit scary that Soubry looked if not good, but credible, defending the established policies in the past. Her astonishing flaying around post referendum revealed her as, well, a person who might go nuts.
Perspective is an odd thing. Reed-Mogg, Cash, Duncan-Smith. One can go on.
Nuttall needs to start a complete reorganisation of UKIP.
I may be wrong but UKIP has shown no progress since his election as leader. In fact quite the reverse, which to me is a shame, because at one time it was on the verge of becoming a real player in British politics.
Too many in UKIP think working class voters will just flock to their ranks. But that's not how it works. You need to put in the tough graft of policy-making, fighting council elections hard, manning stalls at the weekends, knocking on doors, getting in the local paper and so on. That was never Nigel; it needs to be Nuttall.
I am sorry but that is just you guessing & it's not true. Farage worked very hard indeed, I campaigned for Ukip in Clacton alongside him and he was knocking on every door in the crappiest town in England!
That was a GE. The hard work starts a long time before those take place and much more locally. That was never Nigel.
Nuttall needs to start a complete reorganisation of UKIP.
I may be wrong but UKIP has shown no progress since his election as leader. In fact quite the reverse, which to me is a shame, because at one time it was on the verge of becoming a real player in British politics.
Too many in UKIP think working class voters will just flock to their ranks. But that's not how it works. You need to put in the tough graft of policy-making, fighting council elections hard, manning stalls at the weekends, knocking on doors, getting in the local paper and so on. That was never Nigel; it needs to be Nuttall.
I am sorry but that is just you guessing & it's not true. Farage worked very hard indeed, I campaigned for Ukip in Clacton alongside him and he was knocking on every door in the crappiest town in England!
That was a GE. The hard work starts a long time before those take place and much more locally. That was never Nigel.
I think it was to be honest. He spent 15 years doing the hard yards before Ukip started to make any headway at all.
What can you say about anyone that bothers with Lammy? Apart from the simple troughers in all parties he must be the weakest minded person ever to sit.
It's a bit scary that Soubry looked if not good, but credible, defending the established policies in the past. Her astonishing flaying around post referendum revealed her as, well, a person who might go nuts.
Perspective is an odd thing. Reed-Mogg, Cash, Duncan-Smith. One can go on.
Dead right. I still rather like Rees-Mogg, although he's gone a bit strange. It is what democracy is all about though. Although I like to be right I also like sometimes to see the wisdom of others having overruled me correctly. I'm not sure how I balance that with the whole Gordon Brown experience.
Any opinions on where the South-East/Midlands boundary lies?
Bedford?
Watford Gap services.
I think Northants is safely Midlands, isn't it?
Of course it is. The south ends in Beds, Berks and Bucks!
Thank you for the confirmation, mi duck.
Berks is South, i.e. South of the Thames Beds and Bucks are in the nebulous South Midlands, separated from the proper South by the Chilterns.
The south and east Midlands are something of a disputed borderland, of course. I reckon Buckinghamshire and Hertfordshire are both Southern (although Buckinghamshire presents the same problem as Derbyshire - it's long and thin, and this makes the position of, say, Milton Keynes as Southern somewhat tenuous.)
Bedfordshire and Oxfordshire are both disputable but I lean towards the Midlands. Huntingdonshire is definitely Midlands but Cambridgeshire is terra nullius - probably not Southern, but could be either Midlands or tacked onto East Anglia (that being Norfolk and Suffolk, which is of course an entity unto itself; Essex is a bit of an oddity but I think it can reasonably be placed in the South, unless we're going to go all Heptarchic at this point in which case everything gets a lot more messy.)
Moving Westwards, Wiltshire is Southern but Gloucestershire is Midlands. Somerset, Dorset and Devon are the West Country which is really a thing unto itself, and it's highly questionable whether or not Cornwall is really part of England at all.
The status of Monmouthshire is something probably best left to historians...
Copeland will be a far closer battle than Stoke, on present polling it should be neck and neck between the Tories and Labour while Stoke should see a Labour majority of about 8% with the Tories, UKIP and maybe the LDs competing for second. However the Tory machine will focus almost entirely on Copeland given they were third in Stoke last time, Labour's machine will have to split between the two
Nuttall needs to start a complete reorganisation of UKIP.
I may be wrong but UKIP has shown no progress since his election as leader. In fact quite the reverse, which to me is a shame, because at one time it was on the verge of becoming a real player in British politics.
Too many in UKIP think working class voters will just flock to their ranks. But that's not how it works. You need to put in the tough graft of policy-making, fighting council elections hard, manning stalls at the weekends, knocking on doors, getting in the local paper and so on. That was never Nigel; it needs to be Nuttall.
I am sorry but that is just you guessing & it's not true. Farage worked very hard indeed, I campaigned for Ukip in Clacton alongside him and he was knocking on every door in the crappiest town in England!
That was a GE. The hard work starts a long time before those take place and much more locally. That was never Nigel.
I think it was to be honest. He spent 15 years doing the hard yards before Ukip started to make any headway at all.
He did but did he build an organisation that put in the hard yards all over the country when he wasn't there? After all a leader can only be in one place at once and much of the time he couldn't even be in this country let alone knocking on doors. That is the difference.
Farage seemed more interested in building up Farage than building up an organisation that continues without him.
If the Liberals campaign in Stoke mainly on Brexit, they will win regardless of their previous history there. They have to emphasise they will push for the single market and staying in it. The Tories, UKIP and Corbyn's Labour will be pro-Brexit.
In a seat which voted 69% Leave and where the LDs got 4% at the last general election? I don't think so
If the Liberals campaign in Stoke mainly on Brexit, they will win regardless of their previous history there. They have to emphasise they will push for the single market and staying in it. The Tories, UKIP and Corbyn's Labour will be pro-Brexit.
I believe that is completely wrong. Whatever anoraks on here might like to think , most people are not obsessed by Brexit and will vote on the basis of other issues.
That was not the case in Witney, Richmond Park or Sleaford and Hykeham where Labour was squeezed by the LDs, UKIP and the Tories
Chesterfield feels like the North, but Derby feels like the Midlands, even though they're both in the same county, about 20 miles apart.
First-ever post here after years of happy lurking. Hello everyone. Where The North Starts is a pet subject, as although I live in Scotland these days I was brought up in Swanwick in Derbyshire, which is pretty much exactly halfway between Chesterfield and Derby - about 12 miles to each along the old A61. There are lots of ways of trying to nail down the North/Midlands boundary, and I don't think there's any firm answer although there are clear definitions on either side, eg all the Pennines are in the North and anything south of the Trent is not in the North.
Over the years, especially after I'd moved away from Swanwick, I came to believe that it was a village pretty much bang on the boundary, and that I was from the North but only just. Walk out of Swanwick west or north, towards Pentrich or Crich, and it feels Northern immediately - rural, stone-built cottages, fields, gently increasing hills etc. Walk the other way, east or south, towards Riddings or Ripley, and it feels (to me at least) Midland: joined-up terraced houses, generally post-industrial sprawl-ish, flattening-out landscapewise and so on.
There's a theory, which which I agree, that the hill on which Crich Stand stands is the last of the Pennines, and Swanwick is only about an hour's brisk walk from Crich, through Northern-ish countryside all the way, so that's good enough for me. Wherever the boundary is, however, it's not a straight east-west line, for sure - it's a wiggly tilted thing that quite possibly contains loops and doublings-back.
Anyway, I agree with AndyJS: Chesterfield is definitely Northern and Derby is definitely Midland, and the boundary comes somewhere between. The Sheffield Uni map appears to draw the boundary way too far south. And Stoke - not that I know much about it - is surely borderline Northern at best, given that it stands on the Trent.
Isn't the Trent the (informal) boundary between Percy ("The Kings in the North") and Talbot ("Lord of the Marches")? That would make it a pretty clear demarcation.
I'm sure the Lib Dems can always tell the student population in Stoke how much they can be trusted on tuition fees and will have no problem fightng off assertions that they are the Tories Little Helpers.
"The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator has shown the first signs of backing away from his hardline, no compromise approach after admitting he wants a deal with Britain that will guarantee the other 27 member states will continue to have easy access to the City."
To come from 4.2% to win the seat would be an amazing result for the LDs!
That was in the special circumstances of the coalition. The world has changed and the LDs are winning all over the place. In Sunderland last night they went from 4% in 2015 to 45%.
Only because the Labour councillor resigned because of non-attendance and Labour were then stupid enough to pick their spouse as the candidate
To come from 4.2% to win the seat would be an amazing result for the LDs!
That was in the special circumstances of the coalition. The world has changed and the LDs are winning all over the place. In Sunderland last night they went from 4% in 2015 to 45%.
Only because the Labour councillor resigned because of non-attendance and Labour were then stupid enough to pick their spouse as the candidate
You can only beat the people that the other side put forward, and neither Kippers or Tories could exploit Labours woes, despite the seat being supposed kipper friendly.
If the Liberals campaign in Stoke mainly on Brexit, they will win regardless of their previous history there. They have to emphasise they will push for the single market and staying in it. The Tories, UKIP and Corbyn's Labour will be pro-Brexit.
The Libs may push for the Single Market and they could theoretically win there but it won't change the outcome of the negotiations. We will leave the single market. Too late Libs!
Nuttall needs to start a complete reorganisation of UKIP.
I may be wrong but UKIP has shown no progress since his election as leader. In fact quite the reverse, which to me is a shame, because at one time it was on the verge of becoming a real player in British politics.
Too many in UKIP think working class voters will just flock to their ranks. But that's not how it works. You need to put in the tough graft of policy-making, fighting council elections hard, manning stalls at the weekends, knocking on doors, getting in the local paper and so on. That was never Nigel; it needs to be Nuttall.
I am sorry but that is just you guessing & it's not true. Farage worked very hard indeed, I campaigned for Ukip in Clacton alongside him and he was knocking on every door in the crappiest town in England!
That was a GE. The hard work starts a long time before those take place and much more locally. That was never Nigel.
UKIP's position depends almost entirely on Brexit as the LD revival is almost entirely down to Brexit. Just as the LD revival is down to the prospect of hard Brexit and becoming the protest vote for angry Remainers so UKIP could revive again if Brexit is softer than expected with say a job offer system rather than a points system for migration, limited single market access and some payments continuing to the EU. However if it is hard Brexit, then with May also backing grammar schools and a more socially conservative agenda than her predecessor UKIP will have no future as the Tories will effectively have adopted virtually the entire UKIP platform!
Comments
btw just looked on Betfair for prices and got a shock. Lab at 2.7, Cons fav . Of course I was looking at Copeland..
His performance as Shadow Education Secretary was utterly pathetic and made me realise things could be worse than they were under Gove and Morgan. When he wasn't making speeches that contradicted his own policies or writing vacuous rubbish like this, he was basically bleating about how he would be much nicer than Gove, honestly he would, although he had exactly the same policies based upon the same mindless arrogance coupled to a limited grasp of reality. It earned him a rather unkind nickname in the profession, based upon the substitution of the second consonant for that H. Quite what it was unkind to, I'll leave up to you.
To be blunt, in case you haven't guessed, I do not rate Hunt and while there are many reasons to slate Corbyn getting rid of deadwood like him would actually be no bad thing. The real irony is that almost all the criticism I have levelled at Hunt could also be levelled at Corbyn.
The Liberal Democrats might have a chance in a low turnout election but UKIP will have done pretty well if they come third. Anything better than 2-1 on with Labour should be value even with Corbyn at the helm.
(Disclaimer - I know Gary Elsby slightly and have respect for him: although I disagree with many of his views, I was and still am outraged at his being passed over for Hunt, which may colour my views. I do not live in the seat although I do visit it from time to time.)
= Lab out of power for a generation.
I think I'd want 71-1 before I started thinking about betting on the LDs. And I'd probably still not bother then.
We won the referendum, I dont care that much about parliamentary seats. I meant it will be disappointing for UKIP, not me, I don't think they can make too many excuses for failure.
The Tories, UKIP and Corbyn's Labour will be pro-Brexit.
Over the years, especially after I'd moved away from Swanwick, I came to believe that it was a village pretty much bang on the boundary, and that I was from the North but only just. Walk out of Swanwick west or north, towards Pentrich or Crich, and it feels Northern immediately - rural, stone-built cottages, fields, gently increasing hills etc. Walk the other way, east or south, towards Riddings or Ripley, and it feels (to me at least) Midland: joined-up terraced houses, generally post-industrial sprawl-ish, flattening-out landscapewise and so on.
There's a theory, which which I agree, that the hill on which Crich Stand stands is the last of the Pennines, and Swanwick is only about an hour's brisk walk from Crich, through Northern-ish countryside all the way, so that's good enough for me. Wherever the boundary is, however, it's not a straight east-west line, for sure - it's a wiggly tilted thing that quite possibly contains loops and doublings-back.
Anyway, I agree with AndyJS: Chesterfield is definitely Northern and Derby is definitely Midland, and the boundary comes somewhere between. The Sheffield Uni map appears to draw the boundary way too far south. And Stoke - not that I know much about it - is surely borderline Northern at best, given that it stands on the Trent.
I know it was linked to earlier.
https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/13/stoke-on-trent-brexit-corbyn-waterloo-byelection
Typo in the original post: should be "There's a theory, *with* which I agree", of course.
While it might well cause problems should Labour ever be invited to form a government, some sort of correction to the Blair policy - he infamously got his office staff seats in Parliament, never mind his Spads - is long overdue and Labour are not the only party who would benefit from a correction.
For the latter two only seats lost in the by election would make the party look ridiculous.
If UKIP lose, you pay me a tenner. If UKIP win, I pay you £20.
Interested?
The average Stoker couldn't give a shit about a by-election (or Corbyn) yet.
So who's turning up?
We have two competing views: Lib Demmers think they're on a roll, and Remainers will bother, UKIPers think this in their moment in the sun.
I think both are wrong. Boring Labour hold on low turnout. And Tories might not do too badly either.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/12/copeland-byelection-labour-candidates-jeremy-corbyn
I may be wrong but UKIP has shown no progress since his election as leader. In fact quite the reverse, which to me is a shame, because at one time it was on the verge of becoming a real player in British politics.
Now we are leaving the EU, other parties can offer what before only Ukip did, so I'm open to offers, although would back Ukip if there were an election tmrw even if I dislike their/our only MP. Can't understand people who stick with a party even when they no longer agree with it though
Plus everyone knows the Trent is the North/South dividing line.
If it goes through without a hitch, I'm inclined to agree. If there is a hold up, however....
In very general terms (and in respect of a GE rather a by election)
2015 Actual Vote (West Midlands): Con 42 Lab 33 UKIP 16 LD 6 Grn 3
2016 Latest ICM (Midlands): Con 43 Lab 26 UKIP 17 LD 7 Grn 6
Edit: ha, I'm behind the times. There's a tiny one in Uig, and the Harris ginnery has laid down some malt.
I was almost certain I was right about immigration when Leave won the referendum
Now I know...
https://twitter.com/anna_soubry/status/818730096487964673
Costa dropped by Blues.....
Transferred Costa out and brought in Harry Kane, as skipper.
Beds and Bucks are in the nebulous South Midlands, separated from the proper South by the Chilterns.
(Though if we adopt the ecclesiastical definition then Nottinghamshire is in the North as well.)
What can you say about anyone that bothers with Lammy? Apart from the simple troughers in all parties he must be the weakest minded person ever to sit.
It's a bit scary that Soubry looked if not good, but credible, defending the established policies in the past. Her astonishing flaying around post referendum revealed her as, well, a person who might go nuts.
OGH begged me to return so as to ensure the fabled PB 50/1 wager becomes a reality ....
http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/latest/Potential-EU-windfall-for-Cumbria-to-help-recover-from-floods-4d2e06ce-6842-44c6-a603-f77e2351df30-ds
Bedfordshire and Oxfordshire are both disputable but I lean towards the Midlands. Huntingdonshire is definitely Midlands but Cambridgeshire is terra nullius - probably not Southern, but could be either Midlands or tacked onto East Anglia (that being Norfolk and Suffolk, which is of course an entity unto itself; Essex is a bit of an oddity but I think it can reasonably be placed in the South, unless we're going to go all Heptarchic at this point in which case everything gets a lot more messy.)
Moving Westwards, Wiltshire is Southern but Gloucestershire is Midlands. Somerset, Dorset and Devon are the West Country which is really a thing unto itself, and it's highly questionable whether or not Cornwall is really part of England at all.
The status of Monmouthshire is something probably best left to historians...
Farage seemed more interested in building up Farage than building up an organisation that continues without him.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/13/eu-negotiator-wants-special-deal-over-access-to-city-post-brexit
"The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator has shown the first signs of backing away from his hardline, no compromise approach after admitting he wants a deal with Britain that will guarantee the other 27 member states will continue to have easy access to the City."