I'm writing a piece for Sunday on the Blackest of Black Swans that might stop Brexit, here's the things on my list
1) World War III 2) An economic crisis to rival the great depression 3) The Zombie Apocalypse 4) The Rapture
Are there any other things that should be on my list?
That's a good idea for a thread. It might concentrate Remoaner minds. Sure, they WANT to stop Brexit, but how the F do you DO that, given the political reality of 1. the referendum result, and 2. both main parties (for different reasons) being in favour of it (albeit through gritted teeth, in Labour's case)
I can see one possible fifth alternative. Corbyn dies (or weirdly resigns) and some anti-Brexit charismatic centrist Labourite seizes the leadership, and takes the party to massive opinion poll leads, and the Tories freak out and call a 2nd referendum on the terms.
1% chance? 0.1%?
It is the party in power that takes the political hit when the economy has a major episode.
Both the Tories and Labour supported UK membership of the ERM but Black Wednesday happened on the Tories watch, and their economic reputation took a hit for over a decade.
Dave and George supported Gordon Brown's spending/borrowin, then when the great financial crisis it was Labour who took the hit, and you could argue nearly a decade on, Labour's economic reputation is still tainted by that.
Oh, I agree, the best bet for Remoaners is a HUGE recession clearly tied to Brexit, leading to a vast swing in public opinion
Just don't think it is likely. 5%?
We are due a cyclical recession, but people might forget correlation doesn't equal causation, I think it will depend on the type of recession we get.
For me a 'proper' recession is when interest rates and inflation are in double digits, the great financial crisis didn't see either of those, just imagine if interest rates hit 5%, not high by historical standards, but that has the potential to bugger up the housing market.
Then I can see Corbyn ahead by 10% in the polls.
A recession is coming. I can tell from the large number of coffee shops, small restaurants and cocktail bars opening in my local streets.
FPT - I think it's pretty obvious what May is aiming for from the Brexit negotiations, and there's plenty of information already out there to substantiate it.
Yes, it's so obvious that one can only assume that those claiming she has no clear objectives are mischief-making.
The issue, of course, isn't what we're aiming at, it's whether we can get it, and at what cost. To shed light on that, journalists should be snooping around on the continent, not here in the UK.
Your second paragraph is spot on.
On the first, I think that, sadly, there are not a few journalists shy of doing a bit of graft on what is fairly straightforward research, and the doing some dispassionate thinking on the conclusions. I think it was Robert Smithson (?) who put it well when he said that the UK objective is to maximise our access for goods and services, whilst minimising the financial, economic, immigration, and constitutional costs. Or, to put it even more simply, maximising the take-back-control part, whilst minimising economic disruption.
In terms of political success for Theresa May, if she can demonstrate she's banked a net saving in our EU budgetary contributions, that we've exited the EU political institutions and the jurisdiction of the ECJ, together with an abolition of the absolute right of freedom of movement from the EU, and a corresponding net reduction in EU migration levels, without a major economic impact by 2020, she'll be fine, even if it doesn't all "kick in" fully for 10 years.
Except that soft Brexit means following rules set by others, while having no say in the rules. It is not Red White and Blue Brexit, it is Gimp suit Brexit.
For trade with the EU, and tbh, if I want to sell something within the EU I should be expected to follow their trade laws, it's only fair. Outside of trade everything comes back to Westminster, which is how it should be.
Indeed it is a cult around Corbyn, the same behaviour is displayed with the Leave crowd IMO in the media and this website.
With regard to the thread I would be very happy if Starmer became Labour leader, I could see him as PM. I would vote Labour if Starmer was leader. Likewise Umunna or Tristram Hunt (He should have done an Osborne and got rid of his first name imo! Tristram is hardly a name of the people, I suppose it could be worse like Gideon....
Would you vote for them just because of Brexit?
By the time of the next election, we will have Brexited, almost certainly, so it won't be an issue.
So you'd vote Labour because....?
I detest Teresa May, the Tories have dropped the ball in my opinion. I fundamentally disagree with the direction they are going in policy terms. I voted Tory in 2015 but regret doing this now. Brexit is the icing on the cake as far as I am concerned. It is not being patriotic to defenestrate your own country economically and politically. What the Tories are overseeing is the biggest collapse in international clout since the Suez crisis IMO. The immigration will still go on, the poor will be left behind by the rich, the banks will be given taxpayer cash to help them compete. Brexit is the biggest con ever perpetrated on this country. If we are truthful the 2008 crisis would have hit the economy whether Labour or the Tories were in power, the tories were committed to Labours economic plan when the crash happened. The financial plan delivered by the Tories is very similar to the one Darling advocated in 2010.
So I will not vote Tory again, they need to be put in opposition. Then maybe once they have regained their senses and deliver one nation polices instead of just talking about I might vote for them again.
What is so 'One Nation' about Cameron but that does not apply to May other than she is committed to Brexit? If anything May has been less stridently pro austerity, pro rich and pro big business than her predecessor. Of course May will not end immigration completely but if we leave the single market completely it will be because of heavy migration controls she has imposed, if we stay in the single market completely and the economy booms it will be because few migration controls have been imposed, it is unlikely immigration will stay as it is and the economy will see a downturn, it will be either/or
I'm writing a piece for Sunday on the Blackest of Black Swans that might stop Brexit, here's the things on my list
1) World War III 2) An economic crisis to rival the great depression 3) The Zombie Apocalypse 4) The Rapture
Are there any other things that should be on my list?
That's a good idea for a thread. It might concentrate Remoaner minds. Sure, they WANT to stop Brexit, but how the F do you DO that, given the political reality of 1. the referendum result, and 2. both main parties (for different reasons) being in favour of it (albeit through gritted teeth, in Labour's case)
I can see one possible fifth alternative. Corbyn dies (or weirdly resigns) and some anti-Brexit charismatic centrist Labourite seizes the leadership, and takes the party to massive opinion poll leads, and the Tories freak out and call a 2nd referendum on the terms.
1% chance? 0.1%?
Zombie Corbyn might continue after death, but then it may trigger event 3...
If Corbyn pegs it/has a moment of clarity and jacks it in, the plan of the Teenage Momentum Middle Class Hobby Socialists is to install John McDonnell as leader.
It would be quite impressive if they managed to bring in the only man in Britain less electable than Jezza.
Maybe. But far more dangerous as he is vaguely competent at some of the day-today stuff.
I'm writing a piece for Sunday on the Blackest of Black Swans that might stop Brexit, here's the things on my list
1) World War III 2) An economic crisis to rival the great depression 3) The Zombie Apocalypse 4) The Rapture
Are there any other things that should be on my list?
That's a good idea for a thread. It might concentrate Remoaner minds. Sure, they WANT to stop Brexit, but how the F do you DO that, given the political reality of 1. the referendum result, and 2. both main parties (for different reasons) being in favour of it (albeit through gritted teeth, in Labour's case)
I can see one possible fifth alternative. Corbyn dies (or weirdly resigns) and some anti-Brexit charismatic centrist Labourite seizes the leadership, and takes the party to massive opinion poll leads, and the Tories freak out and call a 2nd referendum on the terms.
1% chance? 0.1%?
It is the party in power that takes the political hit when the economy has a major episode.
Both the Tories and Labour supported UK membership of the ERM but Black Wednesday happened on the Tories watch, and their economic reputation took a hit for over a decade.
Dave and George supported Gordon Brown's spending/borrowin, then when the great financial crisis it was Labour who took the hit, and you could argue nearly a decade on, Labour's economic reputation is still tainted by that.
Oh, I agree, the best bet for Remoaners is a HUGE recession clearly tied to Brexit, leading to a vast swing in public opinion
Just don't think it is likely. 5%?
We are due a cyclical recession, but people might forget correlation doesn't equal causation, I think it will depend on the type of recession we get.
For me a 'proper' recession is when interest rates and inflation are in double digits, the great financial crisis didn't see either of those, just imagine if interest rates hit 5%, not high by historical standards, but that has the potential to bugger up the housing market.
Then I can see Corbyn ahead by 10% in the polls.
Even in such circumstances the LDs would probably pick up most disaffected Tories while the hard Brexit which would have produced it would see most of UKIP returning to the Tory fold so I doubt even then Corbyn would be ahead, let alone by 10%
Further to the question of what the British government will be aiming at, to my mind the only big uncertainty is whether they will try to remain in a Customs Union with the EU. It's quite an attractive option (assuming of course that it's available, which it might not be).
Advantages, based on the type of deal Turkey has:
- No disruption at all to our manufacturing industries and most importantly the supply-chain of the car industry - No CAP, CFP, or EU environmental law - No interference by the ECJ in our affairs, except possibly on the narrow area of interpreting the operation of the customs union itself - No ever-closer union or political union - Crucially, no freedom of movement requirement - Low or very low contributions to the EU budget
Disadvantages:
- We couldn't do trade deals (in respect of manufactured goods) with other countries, other than reproducing the EU ones.
I think a reverse Switzerland needs looking at, I did some preliminary research, but I didn't get a chance to complete it before I left.
Essentially the idea is to extend the EU customs zone to the UK for any re-exported goods and the UK acts as a customs agent for the EU for any tariffable goods that enter the UK and are then exported to the EU, those tariffs are set by the EU and conform to their rates. For goods that don't get re-exported to the EU we would have our own tariff rate. Any increment would be payable on exportation to the EU. Slightly more complicated than just staying in the customs union, but much more flexible for our domestic markets and for exports to non-EU destinations.
@MaxPB - I suspect that's something that Davis is looking at.
I'm writing a piece for Sunday on the Blackest of Black Swans that might stop Brexit, here's the things on my list
1) World War III 2) An economic crisis to rival the great depression 3) The Zombie Apocalypse 4) The Rapture
Are there any other things that should be on my list?
That's a good idea for a thread. It might concentrate Remoaner minds. Sure, they WANT to stop Brexit, but how the F do you DO that, given the political reality of 1. the referendum result, and 2. both main parties (for different reasons) being in favour of it (albeit through gritted teeth, in Labour's case)
I can see one possible fifth alternative. Corbyn dies (or weirdly resigns) and some anti-Brexit charismatic centrist Labourite seizes the leadership, and takes the party to massive opinion poll leads, and the Tories freak out and call a 2nd referendum on the terms.
1% chance? 0.1%?
It is the party in power that takes the political hit when the economy has a major episode.
Both the Tories and Labour supported UK membership of the ERM but Black Wednesday happened on the Tories watch, and their economic reputation took a hit for over a decade.
Dave and George supported Gordon Brown's spending/borrowin, then when the great financial crisis it was Labour who took the hit, and you could argue nearly a decade on, Labour's economic reputation is still tainted by that.
Oh, I agree, the best bet for Remoaners is a HUGE recession clearly tied to Brexit, leading to a vast swing in public opinion
Just don't think it is likely. 5%?
We are due a cyclical recession, but people might forget correlation doesn't equal causation, I think it will depend on the type of recession we get.
For me a 'proper' recession is when interest rates and inflation are in double digits, the great financial crisis didn't see either of those, just imagine if interest rates hit 5%, not high by historical standards, but that has the potential to bugger up the housing market.
Then I can see Corbyn ahead by 10% in the polls.
Even in such circumstances the LDs would probably pick up most disaffected Tories while the hard Brexit which would have produced it would see most of UKIP returning to the Tory fold so I doubt even then Corbyn would be ahead, let alone by 10%
During the early 80s recession a Michael Foot led Labour party had double digit leads, even before the SDP split.
In the last year, we've had some polls with Labour ahead
I'm writing a piece for Sunday on the Blackest of Black Swans that might stop Brexit, here's the things on my list
1) World War III 2) An economic crisis to rival the great depression 3) The Zombie Apocalypse 4) The Rapture
Are there any other things that should be on my list?
That's a good idea for a thread. It might concentrate Remoaner minds. Sure, they WANT to stop Brexit, but how the F do you DO that, given the political reality of 1. the referendum result, and 2. both main parties (for different reasons) being in favour of it (albeit through gritted teeth, in Labour's case)
I can see one possible fifth alternative. Corbyn dies (or weirdly resigns) and some anti-Brexit charismatic centrist Labourite seizes the leadership, and takes the party to massive opinion poll leads, and the Tories freak out and call a 2nd referendum on the terms.
1% chance? 0.1%?
It is the party in power that takes the political hit when the economy has a major episode.
Both the Tories and Labour supported UK membership of the ERM but Black Wednesday happened on the Tories watch, and their economic reputation took a hit for over a decade.
Dave and George supported Gordon Brown's spending/borrowin, then when the great financial crisis it was Labour who took the hit, and you could argue nearly a decade on, Labour's economic reputation is still tainted by that.
Oh, I agree, the best bet for Remoaners is a HUGE recession clearly tied to Brexit, leading to a vast swing in public opinion
Just don't think it is likely. 5%?
We are due a cyclical recession, but people might forget correlation doesn't equal causation, I think it will depend on the type of recession we get.
Then I can see Corbyn ahead by 10% in the polls.
Nah. I just can't see Corbyn EVER having serious poll leads. Even if the Tories screw up Brexit, and we get a Great Recession type Recession, the people will always think ANY Tory is better than that mad Marxist. Corbyn is that bad. The voters have made up their minds.
Of course, as per the threader, if Labour change leader and get a plausible candidate like Starmer, then its suddenly an entirely different game
Pollster, Deborah Mattinson, said on Newsnight last night, when Mike was on, that Corbyn is a total nonentity with the public. 50% of the focus groups don't even recognize his photo.
Meanwhile, in my local pub he is just a laughing stock.
FPT - I think it's pretty obvious what May is aiming for from the Brexit negotiations, and there's plenty of information already out there to substantiate it.
Yes, it's so obvious that one can only assume that those claiming she has no clear objectives are mischief-making.
The issue, of course, isn't what we're aiming at, it's whether we can get it, and at what cost. To shed light on that, journalists should be snooping around on the continent, not here in the UK.
Your second paragraph is spot on.
On the first, I think that, sadly, there are not a few journalists shy of doing a bit of graft on what is fairly straightforward research, and the doing some dispassionate thinking on the conclusions. I think it was Robert Smithson (?) who put it well when he said that the UK objective is to maximise our access for goods and services, whilst minimising the financial, economic, immigration, and constitutional costs. Or, to put it even more simply, maximising the take-back-control part, whilst minimising economic disruption.
In terms of political success for Theresa May, if she can demonstrate she's banked a net saving in our EU budgetary contributions, that we've exited the EU political institutions and the jurisdiction of the ECJ, together with an abolition of the absolute right of freedom of movement from the EU, and a corresponding net reduction in EU migration levels, without a major economic impact by 2020, she'll be fine, even if it doesn't all "kick in" fully for 10 years.
Except that soft Brexit means following rules set by others, while having no say in the rules. It is not Red White and Blue Brexit, it is Gimp suit Brexit.
A test of a Brexit deal that sticks will be one that Remainers and the EU still feel happy to criticise as inferior to full EU membership, but Brexiteers are also happy to laud.
I'm writing a piece for Sunday on the Blackest of Black Swans that might stop Brexit, here's the things on my list
1) World War III 2) An economic crisis to rival the great depression 3) The Zombie Apocalypse 4) The Rapture
Are there any other things that should be on my list?
That's a good idea for a thread. It might concentrate Remoaner minds. Sure, they WANT to stop Brexit, but how the F do you DO that, given the political reality of 1. the referendum result, and 2. both main parties (for different reasons) being in favour of it (albeit through gritted teeth, in Labour's case)
I can see one possible fifth alternative. Corbyn dies (or weirdly resigns) and some anti-Brexit charismatic centrist Labourite seizes the leadership, and takes the party to massive opinion poll leads, and the Tories freak out and call a 2nd referendum on the terms.
1% chance? 0.1%?
It is the party in power that takes the political hit when the economy has a major episode.
Both the Tories and Labour supported UK membership of the ERM but Black Wednesday happened on the Tories watch, and their economic reputation took a hit for over a decade.
Dave and George supported Gordon Brown's spending/borrowin, then when the great financial crisis it was Labour who took the hit, and you could argue nearly a decade on, Labour's economic reputation is still tainted by that.
Oh, I agree, the best bet for Remoaners is a HUGE recession clearly tied to Brexit, leading to a vast swing in public opinion
Just don't think it is likely. 5%?
We are due a cyclical recession, but people might forget correlation doesn't equal causation, I think it will depend on the type of recession we get.
For me a 'proper' recession is when interest rates and inflation are in double digits, the great financial crisis didn't see either of those, just imagine if interest rates hit 5%, not high by historical standards, but that has the potential to bugger up the housing market.
Then I can see Corbyn ahead by 10% in the polls.
Nah. I just can't see Corbyn EVER having serious poll leads. Even if the Tories screw up Brexit, and we get a Great Recession type Recession, the people will always think ANY Tory is better than that mad Marxist. Corbyn is that bad. The voters have made up their minds.
Of course, as per the threader, if Labour change leader and get a plausible candidate like Starmer, then its suddenly an entirely different game
The present Labour membership are not going to replace Saint Jeremy with a 'Tory' like Starmer any time soon!
I'm writing a piece for Sunday on the Blackest of Black Swans that might stop Brexit, here's the things on my list
1) World War III 2) An economic crisis to rival the great depression 3) The Zombie Apocalypse 4) The Rapture
Are there any other things that should be on my list?
That's a good idea for a thread. It might concentrate Remoaner minds. Sure, they WANT to stop Brexit, but how the F do you DO that, given the political reality of 1. the referendum result, and 2. both main parties (for different reasons) being in favour of it (albeit through gritted teeth, in Labour's case)
I can see one possible fifth alternative. Corbyn dies (or weirdly resigns) and some anti-Brexit charismatic centrist Labourite seizes the leadership, and takes the party to massive opinion poll leads, and the Tories freak out and call a 2nd referendum on the terms.
1% chance? 0.1%?
I.
ls.
Nah. I just can't see Corbyn EVER having serious poll leads. Even if the Tories screw up Brexit, and we get a Great Recession type Recession, the people will always think ANY Tory is better than that mad Marxist. Corbyn is that bad. The voters have made up their minds.
Of course, as per the threader, if Labour change leader and get a plausible candidate like Starmer, then its suddenly an entirely different game
In the actual ballot box yes you're right, but in polls it could happen.
And the Tory party only ever panics in a crisis. Hefty poll leads for Corbyn counts as a crisis for Mrs May
I'm writing a piece for Sunday on the Blackest of Black Swans that might stop Brexit, here's the things on my list
1) World War III 2) An economic crisis to rival the great depression 3) The Zombie Apocalypse 4) The Rapture
Are there any other things that should be on my list?
That's a good idea for a thread. It might concentrate Remoaner minds. Sure, they WANT to stop Brexit, but how the F do you DO that, given the political reality of 1. the referendum result, and 2. both main parties (for different reasons) being in favour of it (albeit through gritted teeth, in Labour's case)
I can see one possible fifth alternative. Corbyn dies (or weirdly resigns) and some anti-Brexit charismatic centrist Labourite seizes the leadership, and takes the party to massive opinion poll leads, and the Tories freak out and call a 2nd referendum on the terms.
1% chance? 0.1%?
Zombie Corbyn might continue after death, but then it may trigger event 3...
If Corbyn pegs it/has a moment of clarity and jacks it in, the plan of the Teenage Momentum Middle Class Hobby Socialists is to install John McDonnell as leader.
It would be quite impressive if they managed to bring in the only man in Britain less electable than Jezza.
Maybe. But far more dangerous as he is vaguely competent at some of the day-today stuff.
He can string a sentence together, but his past views vis a vis the Provos wouldn't really make him terribly popular in those key marginals.
I did point this out to the Teenage Momentum Middle Class Hobby Socialist of my acquaintance, who was astonished to learn that the PIRA were still fairly unpopular with most of Middle England.
I'd need to lay in several sackfuls of popcorn for the press coverage of a McDonnell led Labour election campaign.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
I'm writing a piece for Sunday on the Blackest of Black Swans that might stop Brexit, here's the things on my list
1) World War III 2) An economic crisis to rival the great depression 3) The Zombie Apocalypse 4) The Rapture
Are there any other things that should be on my list?
That's a good idea for a thread. It might concentrate Remoaner minds. Sure, they WANT to stop Brexit, but how the F do you DO that, given the political reality of 1. the referendum result, and 2. both main parties (for different reasons) being in favour of it (albeit through gritted teeth, in Labour's case)
I can see one possible fifth alternative. Corbyn dies (or weirdly resigns) and some anti-Brexit charismatic centrist Labourite seizes the leadership, and takes the party to massive opinion poll leads, and the Tories freak out and call a 2nd referendum on the terms.
1% chance? 0.1%?
It is the party in power that takes the political hit when the economy has a major episode.
Both the Tories and Labour supported UK that.
Oh, I agree, the best bet for Remoaners is a HUGE recession clearly tied to Brexit, leading to a vast swing in public opinion
Just don't think it is likely. 5%?
We are due a cyclical recession, but people might forget correlation doesn't equal causation, I think it will depend on the type of up the housing market.
Then I can see Corbyn ahead by 10% in the polls.
Even in such circumstances the LDs would probably pick up most disaffected Tories while the hard Brexit which would have produced it would see most of UKIP returning to the Tory fold so I doubt even then Corbyn would be ahead, let alone by 10%
During the early 80s recession a Michael Foot led Labour party had double digit leads, even before the SDP split.
In the last year, we've had some polls with Labour ahead
That was a recession caused by Thatcher going on a hard neoliberal monetarist agenda, the polls only had Labour ahead for a short while and that was largely before the SDP and with Scotland solidly Labour. May is far more centrist and any recession will be a direct result of the voters themselves voting for Brexit. No poll has had Labour ahead under May's leadership. Of course in the general election after the early 80s recession Thatcher beat Foot by one of the biggest landslides in history
The enduring mystery in this market is why David Miliband's price remains so short. Hope springs eternal for Blairites, I suppose.
Now that Hillary can't offer him a job, I wonder if he might move back to the UK, and well those of us who have been laying him might not feel so smug.
The malign evil of Donald Trump knows no bounds.
David Miliband earns £425,000 a year in his current role and lives in Manhattan, why on earth would he want to come back to be a backbench MP on less than a fifth of that salary for a party which is presently polling 24% and did not even vote for him as leader when his opponent was his own brother?
His wife wants to come home :-)
Errr ... his wife (Louise Shackleton) is American.
Their two children were adopted in the US.
His wife and children are already in their home country.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
The latest poll actually has Macron on 13%, he is not even ahead of Melenchon let alone Le Pen who he trails by 11%, Le Pen is just 2% behind Fillon
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
I had a look at the odds of Fillon vs Macron in the second round, as OGH suggested last night. 7/1 on Ladbrokes seems to be the best. Not sure if that is really value
I'm writing a piece for Sunday on the Blackest of Black Swans that might stop Brexit, here's the things on my list
1) World War III 2) An economic crisis to rival the great depression 3) The Zombie Apocalypse 4) The Rapture
Are there any other things that should be on my list?
That's a good idea for a thread. It might concentrate Remoaner minds. Sure, they WANT to stop Brexit, but how the F do you DO that, given the political reality of 1. the referendum result, and 2. both main parties (for different reasons) being in favour of it (albeit through gritted teeth, in Labour's case)
I can see one possible fifth alternative. Corbyn dies (or weirdly resigns) and some anti-Brexit charismatic centrist Labourite seizes the leadership, and takes the party to massive opinion poll leads, and the Tories freak out and call a 2nd referendum on the terms.
1% chance? 0.1%?
I.
ls.
Nah. I just can't see Corbyn EVER having serious poll leads. Even if the Tories screw up Brexit, and we get a Great Recession type Recession, the people will always think ANY Tory is better than that mad Marxist. Corbyn is that bad. The voters have made up their minds.
Of course, as per the threader, if Labour change leader and get a plausible candidate like Starmer, then its suddenly an entirely different game
In the actual ballot box yes you're right, but in polls it could happen.
And the Tory party only ever panics in a crisis. Hefty poll leads for Corbyn counts as a crisis for Mrs May
As a betting man, what odds would you give on Corbyns Labour being ahead in a Westminster VI poll this year?
And another price on them being 5% or more ahead in one please
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Further to the question of what the British government will be aiming at, to my mind the only big uncertainty is whether they will try to remain in a Customs Union with the EU. It's quite an attractive option (assuming of course that it's available, which it might not be).
Advantages, based on the type of deal Turkey has:
- No disruption at all to our manufacturing industries and most importantly the supply-chain of the car industry - No CAP, CFP, or EU environmental law - No interference by the ECJ in our affairs, except possibly on the narrow area of interpreting the operation of the customs union itself - No ever-closer union or political union - Crucially, no freedom of movement requirement - Low or very low contributions to the EU budget
Disadvantages:
- We couldn't do trade deals (in respect of manufactured goods) with other countries, other than reproducing the EU ones.
I think a reverse Switzerland needs looking at, I did some preliminary research, but I didn't get a chance to complete it before I left.
Essentially the idea is to extend the EU customs zone to the UK for any re-exported goods and the UK acts as a customs agent for the EU for any tariffable goods that enter the UK and are then exported to the EU, those tariffs are set by the EU and conform to their rates. For goods that don't get re-exported to the EU we would have our own tariff rate. Any increment would be payable on exportation to the EU. Slightly more complicated than just staying in the customs union, but much more flexible for our domestic markets and for exports to non-EU destinations.
@MaxPB - I suspect that's something that Davis is looking at.
The neat part of that solution is that we still get to do free trade deals of our own for goods and services and our companies are still inside some kind of EU customs zone, just not for goods that have been imported from outside of the EU. Exporting goods to the EU would be exactly the same as it is today, goods which stay in the UK or are destined for non-EU countries could benefit from a more competitive tariff structure and a more aggressive trade policy.
I'm writing a piece for Sunday on the Blackest of Black Swans that might stop Brexit, here's the things on my list
1) World War III 2) An economic crisis to rival the great depression 3) The Zombie Apocalypse 4) The Rapture
Are there any other things that should be on my list?
That's a good idea for a thread. It might concentrate Remoaner minds. Sure, they WANT to stop Brexit, but how the F do you DO that, given the political reality of 1. the referendum result, and 2. both main parties (for different reasons) being in favour of it (albeit through gritted teeth, in Labour's case)
I can see one possible fifth alternative. Corbyn dies (or weirdly resigns) and some anti-Brexit charismatic centrist Labourite seizes the leadership, and takes the party to massive opinion poll leads, and the Tories freak out and call a 2nd referendum on the terms.
1% chance? 0.1%?
I.
ls.
Nah. I just can't see Corbyn EVER having serious poll leads. Even if the Tories screw up Brexit, and we get a Great Recession type Recession, the people will always think ANY Tory is better than that mad Marxist. Corbyn is that bad. The voters have made up their minds.
Of course, as per the threader, if Labour change leader and get a plausible candidate like Starmer, then its suddenly an entirely different game
In the actual ballot box yes you're right, but in polls it could happen.
And the Tory party only ever panics in a crisis. Hefty poll leads for Corbyn counts as a crisis for Mrs May
Hefty poll leads for Corbyn? About as likely as Mike voting Tory!
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
Macron is not going to beat Le Pen let alone Fillon, more likely Melenchon beats Macron for third with Valls and Macron splitting the centrist, social democratic vote
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
Macron is not going to beat Le Pen let alone Fillon, more likely Melenchon beats Macron for third with Valls and Macron splitting the centrist, social democratic vote
Reframe the question. Who does Le Pen ideally want as an opponent? Who is she most likely to beat? I genuinely dunno.
Melenchon. Hollande was the ideal candidate but he's not in the running.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
I had a look at the odds of Fillon vs Macron in the second round, as OGH suggested last night. 7/1 on Ladbrokes seems to be the best. Not sure if that is really value
Le Pen is increasingly looking like a lay to me, at current prices.
But my wallet is empty after Christmas and the Sales.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
Macron is not going to beat Le Pen let alone Fillon, more likely Melenchon beats Macron for third with Valls and Macron splitting the centrist, social democratic vote
Reframe the question. Who does Le Pen ideally want as an opponent? Who is she most likely to beat? I genuinely dunno.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
The latest poll actually has Macron on 13%, he is not even ahead of Melenchon let alone Le Pen who he trails by 11%, Le Pen is just 2% behind Fillon
If Bayrou were to endorse Macron, rather than merely sit on the sidelines, you could probably assume two thirds of his vote went to him. That would put Macron 19-21% (depending on which starting poll you chose).
Now, sure, it all depends on who the Socialists choose.
But here's the thing: the FN has repeatedly - and often by large margins - underperformed its polling. And if you're a PS or Green voter and it looks like its Fillon vs Le Pen in the Second Round, might you vote tactically for Macron in the first?
I admit that - having bet on Macron in the 20s (and advised all and sundry on here to do so) - I might be biased. But the poll difference between Macron and Le Pen has been closing, and I think there is greater than 50% chance that Bayrou endorses Macron.
Would I bet on Macron? Not at current prices. But I wouldn't bet on Le Pen (who trails Fillon 70:30 in the polls) at odds less than 12-1 or so. She is the clear short.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
I had a look at the odds of Fillon vs Macron in the second round, as OGH suggested last night. 7/1 on Ladbrokes seems to be the best. Not sure if that is really value
Le Pen is increasingly looking like a lay to me, at current prices.
But my wallet is empty after Christmas and the Sales.
I am only modestly exposed on this election, and would agree in laying Le Pen, but getting a decent return would require a big stake.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
I thought she was the drama teacher.
And, ummm, didn't we all have crushes (requited or not) on our drama teachers at school.
Working class background, grammar school, not Oxbridge and 'proper job' should all impress the average voter.
London constituency won't.
It might be the other way around with Labour members though.
Are there any political inconvenient things in his DPP past ?
I think The Sun will tear him a new one, given he oversaw the decision to prosecute so many Sun journalists re phone hacking/misconduct in a public office, especially in light of so few convictions.
Starmer's one line manifesto for leader of the Labour Party:
"I oversaw the decision to prosecute so many Sun journalists. Vote for me."
That's gold dust in a Labour leadership contest. When can I vote for him?
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
I had a look at the odds of Fillon vs Macron in the second round, as OGH suggested last night. 7/1 on Ladbrokes seems to be the best. Not sure if that is really value
Le Pen is increasingly looking like a lay to me, at current prices.
But my wallet is empty after Christmas and the Sales.
I am only modestly exposed on this election, and would agree in laying Le Pen, but getting a decent return would require a big stake.
More interesting would be to bet on Macron.
My main move on Macron has been made: following Robert's advice to back him north of 20/1, and then laying most off at 8/1.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
I thought she was the drama teacher.
And, ummm, didn't we all have crushes (requited or not) on our drama teachers at school.
I suspect Mr Valentine wouldn't have objected to me having a crush on him.
While there is breath in his body, Jeremy Corbyn will not relinquish his role, no matter what happens, now, next year, or after a general election defeat. The only thing that will shift him is ill health, or the grim reaper.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
I had a look at the odds of Fillon vs Macron in the second round, as OGH suggested last night. 7/1 on Ladbrokes seems to be the best. Not sure if that is really value
Le Pen is increasingly looking like a lay to me, at current prices.
But my wallet is empty after Christmas and the Sales.
I am only modestly exposed on this election, and would agree in laying Le Pen, but getting a decent return would require a big stake.
More interesting would be to bet on Macron.
My main move on Macron has been made: following Robert's advice to back him north of 20/1, and then laying most off at 8/1.
After having bet very heavily north of 20, I laid almost all off between 9 and 11. I have a tiny remaining position.
I want to lay Le Pen. Given she (personally) didn't even come close in the most FN friendly region of France against an insipid LR candidate in the immediate aftermath of the Bataclan and Nice attaks, I can't see how she can possibly win the Presidency absent a massive shock.
She trails Fillon 70:30 in the second round. In a US election where there was a 70:30 polling differential it would be 40-1 for the challenger, not 6-1.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
Macron is not going to beat Le Pen let alone Fillon, more likely Melenchon beats Macron for third with Valls and Macron splitting the centrist, social democratic vote
Reframe the question. Who does Le Pen ideally want as an opponent? Who is she most likely to beat? I genuinely dunno.
Melenchon as MaxPB states
So its still Fillon's to lose
But two or three Bataclans (heaven forbid)...
Indeed, though Fillon's tougher immigration rhetoric should see him home in round 2 I expect Le Pen to win round 1
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
Macron is not going to beat Le Pen let alone Fillon, more likely Melenchon beats Macron for third with Valls and Macron splitting the centrist, social democratic vote
Reframe the question. Who does Le Pen ideally want as an opponent? Who is she most likely to beat? I genuinely dunno.
Melenchon as MaxPB states
So its still Fillon's to lose
But two or three Bataclans (heaven forbid)...
Indeed, though Fillon's tougher immigration rhetoric should see him home in round 2 I expect Le Pen to win round 1
The FN has repeatedly underperformed its poll scores, and she trails Fillon meaningfully in the polls.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
I thought she was the drama teacher.
And, ummm, didn't we all have crushes (requited or not) on our drama teachers at school.
24 years older??
And imagine it in reverse, and the presidential candidate was an ex-teacher who married an ex pupil who was 24 years YOUNGER. He's 39, so she'd be 15.
Even if he waited til she was 18 he would surely never be elected.
Plenty of guys marry women 24 years (or more) younger than them?
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
I thought she was the drama teacher.
And, ummm, didn't we all have crushes (requited or not) on our drama teachers at school.
24 years older??
And imagine it in reverse, and the presidential candidate was an ex-teacher who married an ex pupil who was 24 years YOUNGER. He's 39, so she'd be 15.
Even if he waited til she was 18 he would surely never be elected.
Oh come on, surely you slept with at least one of your (much older) teachers at school.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
I thought she was the drama teacher.
And, ummm, didn't we all have crushes (requited or not) on our drama teachers at school.
24 years older??
And imagine it in reverse, and the presidential candidate was an ex-teacher who married an ex pupil who was 24 years YOUNGER. He's 39, so she'd be 15.
Even if he waited til she was 18 he would surely never be elected.
Plenty of guys marry women 24 years (or more) younger than them?
I don't think Sean even dates women less than 24 years younger than him.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
The latest poll actually has Macron on 13%, he is not even ahead of Melenchon let alone Le Pen who he trails by 11%, Le Pen is just 2% behind Fillon
If Bayrou were to endorse Macron, rather than merely sit on the sidelines, you could probably assume two thirds of his vote went to him. That would put Macron 19-21% (depending on which starting poll you chose).
Now, sure, it all depends on who the Socialists choose.
But here's the thing: the FN has repeatedly - and often by large margins - underperformed its polling. And if you're a PS or Green voter and it looks like its Fillon vs Le Pen in the Second Round, might you vote tactically for Macron in the first?
I admit that - having bet on Macron in the 20s (and advised all and sundry on here to do so) - I might be biased. But the poll difference between Macron and Le Pen has been closing, and I think there is greater than 50% chance that Bayrou endorses Macron.
Would I bet on Macron? Not at current prices. But I wouldn't bet on Le Pen (who trails Fillon 70:30 in the polls) at odds less than 12-1 or so. She is the clear short.
Look at those December polls, all have Le Pen and Fillon over 20%, Macron below 20% in all but tied with Melenchon in a number of them. Valls, who is the likely Socialist candidate, will fish in the same pool of voters as Macron hitting his vote even further, you are also wrong on round 1, in 2002 and 2012 both Jean Marie and Marine outperformed their polling in the first round. Why would PS or Green voters vote for Macron when most consider him a French Blairite, if anything Le Pen is closer to them economically which is why many on the left will vote for Melenchon rather than Valls and Macron potentially giving him an opening for third. I think if and when Valls wins the nomination he will push up the PS score a little as an improvement on the hapless Hollande and Macron will have to hold off him too, indeed Macron loses about 4-5% when Valls is the PS candidate rather than Montebourg
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
The latest poll actually has Macron on 13%, he is not even ahead of Melenchon let alone Le Pen who he trails by 11%, Le Pen is just 2% behind Fillon
If Bayrou were to endorse Macron, rather than merely sit on the sidelines, you could probably assume two thirds of his vote went to him. That would put Macron 19-21% (depending on which starting poll you chose).
Now, sure, it all depends on who the Socialists choose.
But here's the thing: the FN has repeatedly - and often by large margins - underperformed its polling. And if you're a PS or Green voter and it looks like its Fillon vs Le Pen in the Second Round, might you vote tactically for Macron in the first?
I admit that - having bet on Macron in the 20s (and advised all and sundry on here to do so) - I might be biased. But the poll difference between Macron and Le Pen has been closing, and I think there is greater than 50% chance that Bayrou endorses Macron.
Would I bet on Macron? Not at current prices. But I wouldn't bet on Le Pen (who trails Fillon 70:30 in the polls) at odds less than 12-1 or so. She is the clear short.
Look at those December polls, all have Le Pen and Fillon over 20%, Macron below 20% in all but tied with Melenchon in a number of them. Valls, who is the likely Socialist candidate, will fish in the same pool of voters as Macron hitting his vote even further, you are also wrong on round 1, in 2002 and 2012 both Jean Marie and Marine outperformed their polling in the first round. Why would PS or Green voters vote for Macron when most consider him a French Blairite, if anything Le Pen is closer to them economically which is why many on the left will vote for Melenchon rather than Valls and Macron potentially giving him an opening for third. If anything I think if and when Valls wins the nomination he will push up the PS score a little as an improvement on the hapless Hollande and Macron will have to hold off him too
Care for a bet on PS vs EM?
I'll give you +3. So, EM has to beat PS by 3 percentage points.
@HYUFD: I would also point you to the example of Jeremy Corbyn in the UK. It's almost like the people who vote in left wing leadership contests value ideological purity over electability.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
Macron is not going to beat Le Pen let alone Fillon, more likely Melenchon beats Macron for third with Valls and Macron splitting the centrist, social democratic vote
Reframe the question. Who does Le Pen ideally want as an opponent? Who is she most likely to beat? I genuinely dunno.
Melenchon as MaxPB states
So its still Fillon's to lose
But two or three Bataclans (heaven forbid)...
Indeed, though Fillon's tougher immigration rhetoric should see him home in round 2 I expect Le Pen to win round 1
The FN has repeatedly underperformed its poll scores, and she trails Fillon meaningfully in the polls.
So, why do you expect her to win the first round?
2 of those December polls have Le Pen ahead of or tied with Fillon in round 1
@HYUFD: I would also point you to the example of Jeremy Corbyn in the UK. It's almost like the people who vote in left wing leadership contests value ideological purity over electability.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
Macron is not going to beat Le Pen let alone Fillon, more likely Melenchon beats Macron for third with Valls and Macron splitting the centrist, social democratic vote
Reframe the question. Who does Le Pen ideally want as an opponent? Who is she most likely to beat? I genuinely dunno.
Melenchon as MaxPB states
So its still Fillon's to lose
But two or three Bataclans (heaven forbid)...
Indeed, though Fillon's tougher immigration rhetoric should see him home in round 2 I expect Le Pen to win round 1
The FN has repeatedly underperformed its poll scores, and she trails Fillon meaningfully in the polls.
So, why do you expect her to win the first round?
2 of those December polls have Le Pen ahead of or tied with Fillon in round 1
One of eleven poll scenarios has Le Pen leading by a single percent. One has her tying.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
The latest poll actually has Macron on 13%, he is not even ahead of Melenchon let alone Le Pen who he trails by 11%, Le Pen is just 2% behind Fillon
If Bayrou were to endorse Macron, rather than merely sit on the sidelines, you could probably assume two thirds of his vote went to him. That would put Macron 19-21% (depending on which starting poll you chose).
Now, sure, it all depends on who the Socialists choose.
But here's the thing: the FN has repeatedly - and often by large margins - underperformed its polling. And if you're a PS or Green voter and it looks like its Fillon vs Le Pen in the Second Round, might you vote tactically for Macron in the first?
I admit that - having bet on Macron in the 20s (and advised all and sundry on here to do so) - I might be biased. But the poll difference between Macron and Le Pen has been closing, and I think there is greater than 50% chance that Bayrou endorses Macron.
Would I bet on Macron? Not at current prices. But I wouldn't bet on Le Pen (who trails Fillon 70:30 in the polls) at odds less than 12-1 or so. She is the clear short.
Look at those December polls, all have Le Pen and Fillon over 20%, Macron below 20% in all but tied with Melenchon in a number of them. Valls, who is the likely Socialist candidate, will fish in the same pool of voters as Macron hitting his vote even further, you are also wrong on round 1, in 2002 and 2012 both Jean Marie and have to hold off him too
Care for a bet on PS vs EM?
I'll give you +3. So, EM has to beat PS by 3 percentage points.
A small bet agreed but only if Valls is confirmed as PS candidate
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
I thought she was the drama teacher.
And, ummm, didn't we all have crushes (requited or not) on our drama teachers at school.
24 years older??
And imagine it in reverse, and the presidential candidate was an ex-teacher who married an ex pupil who was 24 years YOUNGER. He's 39, so she'd be 15.
Even if he waited til she was 18 he would surely never be elected.
This is the same France we're talking about, right?
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
Macron is not going to beat Le Pen let alone Fillon, more likely Melenchon beats Macron for third with Valls and Macron splitting the centrist, social democratic vote
Reframe the question. Who does Le Pen ideally want as an opponent? Who is she most likely to beat? I genuinely dunno.
Melenchon as MaxPB states
So its still Fillon's to lose
But two or three Bataclans (heaven forbid)...
Indeed, though Fillon's tougher immigration rhetoric should see him home in round 2 I expect Le Pen to win round 1
The FN has repeatedly underperformed its poll scores, and she trails Fillon meaningfully in the polls.
So, why do you expect her to win the first round?
2 of those December polls have Le Pen ahead of or tied with Fillon in round 1
One of eleven poll scenarios has Le Pen leading by a single percent. One has her tying.
Which is more than can be said of Macron against either Le Pen or Fillon in round 1
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
I thought she was the drama teacher.
And, ummm, didn't we all have crushes (requited or not) on our drama teachers at school.
24 years older??
And imagine it in reverse, and the presidential candidate was an ex-teacher who married an ex pupil who was 24 years YOUNGER. He's 39, so she'd be 15.
Even if he waited til she was 18 he would surely never be elected.
Plenty of guys marry women 24 years (or more) younger than them?
I don't think Sean even dates women less than 24 years younger than him.
My present GF is 26, and I am 53. lol. So that's, um, 27 years difference
Eeeek.
The difference is, I know I am a roue, a reprobate and a sad old lech etc etc etc. I wouldn't run for president of France.
looking down the runners and riders list for next labour leader says it all - none of them has a hope in hell of persuading anyone with half a brain of voting for them
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
I thought she was the drama teacher.
And, ummm, didn't we all have crushes (requited or not) on our drama teachers at school.
24 years older??
And imagine it in reverse, and the presidential candidate was an ex-teacher who married an ex pupil who was 24 years YOUNGER. He's 39, so she'd be 15.
Even if he waited til she was 18 he would surely never be elected.
This is the same France we're talking about, right?
I met Mitterand's illegitimate daughter at Cambridge. Everyone - and I mean everyone - knew her paternity.
I would have thought SeanT's predilictions would give him a boost in the French polls.
I'm writing a piece for Sunday on the Blackest of Black Swans that might stop Brexit, here's the things on my list
1) World War III 2) An economic crisis to rival the great depression 3) The Zombie Apocalypse 4) The Rapture
Are there any other things that should be on my list?
That's a good idea for a thread. It might concentrate Remoaner minds. Sure, they WANT to stop Brexit, but how the F do you DO that, given the political reality of 1. the referendum result, and 2. both main parties (for different reasons) being in favour of it (albeit through gritted teeth, in Labour's case)
I can see one possible fifth alternative. Corbyn dies (or weirdly resigns) and some anti-Brexit charismatic centrist Labourite seizes the leadership, and takes the party to massive opinion poll leads, and the Tories freak out and call a 2nd referendum on the terms.
1% chance? 0.1%?
I.
ls.
Nah. I just can't see Corbyn EVER having serious poll leads. Even if the Tories screw up Brexit, and we get a Great Recession type Recession, the people will always think ANY Tory is better than that mad Marxist. Corbyn is that bad. The voters have made up their minds.
Of course, as per the threader, if Labour change leader and get a plausible candidate like Starmer, then its suddenly an entirely different game
In the actual ballot box yes you're right, but in polls it could happen.
And the Tory party only ever panics in a crisis. Hefty poll leads for Corbyn counts as a crisis for Mrs May
Corbyn defeated Cameron in the 2016 local elections:
I'm writing a piece for Sunday on the Blackest of Black Swans that might stop Brexit, here's the things on my list
1) World War III 2) An economic crisis to rival the great depression 3) The Zombie Apocalypse 4) The Rapture
Are there any other things that should be on my list?
5) Nato becoming untenable (North Korea nukes USA, USA invokes article 5 and demands UK nukes North Korea, shit hits fan. Similarly if/when Russia invades Baltics).
You are a patriot, but not for this country. You serve a differnt master. That much is clear...Brexit is our cultural revolution, purging the opposition is now a necessary step. Distasteful though it may seem...The purge of the remainers has begun, they've proved they can't be trusted. Like you they serve a different master...Remainers...want to take any and all steps to stop us from leaving the EU...the government needs absolute loyalty from its employees. We cannot have people serving two masters...all British citizens have a duty to the state...Those who do not think so set themselves against this country and deserve ridicule and scorn...those who set themselves against the will of the British people...unwilling to do their duty to the state...would rather serve an outside master...They should be purged from the civil service, the BBC and other walks of public influence...The purge of the remainers has begun...Not as the state requires them, as the British people require them. They are setting themselves against the will of the British people. For that they need to be purged and replaced...we need absolute loyalty, not someone who is going to ...serve two masters. We...have a duty to make Brexit work...Absolute loyalty, nothing less...The purge of the remainers has begun...
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
Stop exaggerating. Alex Salmond's wife is 17 years his senior and so is hardly the same - it's one year less than an example more relevant yo you, that of Raymond Chandler. If you think that age difference is creepy or distasteful I suggest you read some of the letters he wrote immediately after her death.
I suspect that has F all to do with Brexit, and 100% to do with Le Pen tacking to the centre, as she sees a real chance of winning.
Marine Le Pen is increasingly looking like she might not make the second round. She's down at 24% in the polls against Fillon, with Macron now on 18% or so. With Bayrou's endorsement, he'd pass her into second.
Who would win in Fillon versus Macron?
Slightly creepy fact about Macron -
"Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.[8]"
24 years older? Sounds like Salmond. Brrrr.
Stop exaggerating. Alex Salmond's wife is 17 years his senior and so is hardly the same - it's one year less than an example more relevant yo you, that of Raymond Chandler. If you think that age difference is creepy or distasteful I suggest you read some of the letters he wrote immediately after her death.
I don't find the age difference creepy at all, given that Macron married at 29. No problem that they broke the "half your age plus seven" rule either. Good luck to them. When I was 26 I went out with a woman aged 45 for a year. A friend's mother had a very successful marriage to her husband after they wed when she was 29 and he was 52.
What I do find a little creepy is that Macron's wife was his teacher at school. But that's only because I conjure up an image of a 17 year old with his 41 year old teacher. For all I know, maybe after he left school the first time they met again was when he was 28. She's probably nothing like a female Oliver Reed or Bill Wyman.
As for Marine Le Pen, I don't think she's heading centrewards. More likely, she's getting in the face of the electorate and making a lot of news. It worked for Trump. Own the discourse, make it your election, and then on voting day go and collect what you own. And we probably ain't seen nothing yet.
Also I don't think she's ever said she wanted France to leave the EU.
You are a patriot, but not for this country. You serve a differnt master. That much is clear...Brexit is our cultural revolution, purging the opposition is now a necessary step. Distasteful though it may seem...The purge of the remainers has begun, they've proved they can't be trusted. Like you they serve a different master...Remainers...want to take any and all steps to stop us from leaving the EU...the government needs absolute loyalty from its employees. We cannot have people serving two masters...all British citizens have a duty to the state...Those who do not think so set themselves against this country and deserve ridicule and scorn...those who set themselves against the will of the British people...unwilling to do their duty to the state...would rather serve an outside master...They should be purged from the civil service, the BBC and other walks of public influence...The purge of the remainers has begun...Not as the state requires them, as the British people require them. They are setting themselves against the will of the British people. For that they need to be purged and replaced...we need absolute loyalty, not someone who is going to ...serve two masters. We...have a duty to make Brexit work...Absolute loyalty, nothing less...The purge of the remainers has begun...
I want to lay Le Pen. Given she (personally) didn't even come close in the most FN friendly region of France against an insipid LR candidate in the immediate aftermath of the Bataclan and Nice attaks, I can't see how she can possibly win the Presidency absent a massive shock.
I'm writing a piece for Sunday on the Blackest of Black Swans that might stop Brexit, here's the things on my list
1) World War III 2) An economic crisis to rival the great depression 3) The Zombie Apocalypse 4) The Rapture
Are there any other things that should be on my list?
5) Nato becoming untenable (North Korea nukes USA, USA invokes article 5 and demands UK nukes North Korea, shit hits fan. Similarly if/when Russia invades Baltics).
I too worry about Trump/Putin/NATO - but mainly because of the failure of most NATO members to match their commitment to spend 2% on defence, which gives Trump an excuse.
I think North Korea would be a nuclear wasteland long before Trump even bothered to ask May to lend a hand......but if she was asked, I've no doubt she'd do it - witness her instant three letter one word reply when asked if she'd use our nuclear deterrent.....which at least demonstrates she understands the point of a deterrent....
Despite offering free tuition, Scotland has the worst record than anywhere else in the UK when it comes to getting students from poorer backgrounds into university, says new report.
The Access to Scotland report from social mobility charity The Sutton Trust has found there to be a narrowing of the gap between rich and poor young people entering higher education (HE) across the UK in recent years.
However, despite improvements, young disadvantaged Scottish people are four times less likely to go to university than their wealthier counterparts. In England the same figure is 2.4, while in Wales and Northern Ireland, poorer students are three times more likely to do so.
I think North Korea would be a nuclear wasteland long before Trump even bothered to ask May to lend a hand
That wouldn't happen without Seoul being destroyed in a Northern attack using conventional weapons.
They put one of ours in the hospital. We put one of theirs in the morgue. That's the Chicago way.....
If North Korea is going to nuke LA or Seattle, do you seriously think they aren't going to attack Seoul - the US has to make clear the price of aggression is catastrophically prohibitive....and the Russians & Chinese won't mind.....
You are a patriot, but not for this country. You serve a differnt master. That much is clear...Brexit is our cultural revolution, purging the opposition is now a necessary step. Distasteful though it may seem...The purge of the remainers has begun, they've proved they can't be trusted. Like you they serve a different master...Remainers...want to take any and all steps to stop us from leaving the EU...the government needs absolute loyalty from its employees. We cannot have people serving two masters...all British citizens have a duty to the state...Those who do not think so set themselves against this country and deserve ridicule and scorn...those who set themselves against the will of the British people...unwilling to do their duty to the state...would rather serve an outside master...They should be purged from the civil service, the BBC and other walks of public influence...The purge of the remainers has begun...Not as the state requires them, as the British people require them. They are setting themselves against the will of the British people. For that they need to be purged and replaced...we need absolute loyalty, not someone who is going to ...serve two masters. We...have a duty to make Brexit work...Absolute loyalty, nothing less...The purge of the remainers has begun...
Wow. Did he really say that? He knows Theresa May was a remainer right? Along with 48% of those who voted?
Kier Starmer - competence is relative not absolute. If one takes at face value the opinions of him from the staff at the CPS, he would be, in some respects, a natural successor to Corbyn.
There's another question related to this: if the next Labour leader is a non-Corbynite, how will Momentum and the pro-Corbyn people within Labour (e.g. NPXMP) react? Would they peacefully go along with it, or would there be more trouble?
As an aside, what progress has Corbyn and Momentum made recently in changing the party's rules and the NEC to their liking? It all seems to have gone a little quiet.
Fantastic article - should be compulsive reading for Meeks, TSE, etc - enough to completely blow up so many closed minds
What's Bartholomew's problem? He didn't like the title of the essay his daughter's French teacher set her. (I can't see any other evidence in his article.)
Well, if it was a State school, JB doesn't mind "socialism" as much as he says he does, and if it was a private one he failed to practice due diligence as a parent and a service consumer. But then, ordinary people do throw their money away - it's how bookies and casinos stay in business.
Fantastic article - should be compulsive reading for Meeks, TSE, etc - enough to completely blow up so many closed minds
What an unpleasant and arrogant article. To save you going through the whole turgid piece read this paragraph and if you find it 'fantastic' like felix does read on...
"Why would anyone support Hillary Clinton — a ruthless, charmless Washington insider with socialist tendencies? Why do lawyers, churchmen, the BBC and, indeed, most educated people support the EU — an organisation as saturated with smug self-righteousness as it is with corruption; one which created the euro, which in turn has caused millions of people to be unemployed; an organisation which combines a yawning democratic deficit with incompetence over immigration and economic growth?"
Fantastic article - should be compulsive reading for Meeks, TSE, etc - enough to completely blow up so many closed minds
Evidence-free drivel. It is just a series of more-or-less unrelated assertions. If Remain depended on Radio 4 listeners, they'd not have reached anywhere near 48 per cent. If the propaganda starts in primary school, were the 52 per cent incorrigible truants?
There might be an interesting article on the education of the Establishment: is there a common view across party lines amongst politicians and civil servants who read PPE at Oxford, for instance? In Cameron's governments, were there systematic political differences between Old Etonians and the rest? But this Spectator article reads like it has been phoned in after a particularly good lunch.
Am I the only PBer wondering what went wrong for it to go away in the first place? I want the causal factors and a root-cause analysis damnit!
Vanilla stuffed up and then their entire development team went on an extended Christmas break. I read somewhere that another site spent days migrating to Vanilla and then immediately had to migrate back owing to the same bug.
Fantastic article - should be compulsive reading for Meeks, TSE, etc - enough to completely blow up so many closed minds
No. It is just a poorly written rant by a posh bloke to justify his predjudices.
Just a swivel eyed loon frothing at his mouth.
It does remind me of why I don't buy the "Speccie"...
To be fair... His only purpose in writing the article is to promote his book. And throwing out the red meat for Felix (there's a catfood joke in there but I can't quite work it out) is probably the best way to go.
Further to the question of what the British government will be aiming at, to my mind the only big uncertainty is whether they will try to remain in a Customs Union with the EU. It's quite an attractive option (assuming of course that it's available, which it might not be).
Advantages, based on the type of deal Turkey has:
- No disruption at all to our manufacturing industries and most importantly the supply-chain of the car industry - No CAP, CFP, or EU environmental law - No interference by the ECJ in our affairs, except possibly on the narrow area of interpreting the operation of the customs union itself - No ever-closer union or political union - Crucially, no freedom of movement requirement - Low or very low contributions to the EU budget
Disadvantages:
- We couldn't do trade deals (in respect of manufactured goods) with other countries, other than reproducing the EU ones. - Probably wouldn't be great for the City and other service industries (but we probably have to accept that anyway under any deal)
Am I the only PBer wondering what went wrong for it to go away in the first place? I want the causal factors and a root-cause analysis damnit!
Vanilla stuffed up and then their entire development team went on an extended Christmas break. I read somewhere that another site spent days migrating to Vanilla and then immediately had to migrate back owing to the same bug.
"entire development team went on an extended Christmas break." is not a causal factor: it is a factor in why the problem persisted for so long, but probably in itself did not cause the issue.
"Vanilla stuffed up" is an effect, not a causal factor.
(Engineers rushing to get an update out before the Christmas break might be a causal factor, though)
Fantastic article - should be compulsive reading for Meeks, TSE, etc - enough to completely blow up so many closed minds
No. It is just a poorly written rant by a posh bloke to justify his predjudices.
Just a swivel eyed loon frothing at his mouth.
I missed your post when reading the drivel that felix posted. You covered it much more succinctly than me. It's interesting only in what it tells us about the prejudices of Bartholomew The Spectator and felix
Despite offering free tuition, Scotland has the worst record than anywhere else in the UK when it comes to getting students from poorer backgrounds into university, says new report.
The Access to Scotland report from social mobility charity The Sutton Trust has found there to be a narrowing of the gap between rich and poor young people entering higher education (HE) across the UK in recent years.
However, despite improvements, young disadvantaged Scottish people are four times less likely to go to university than their wealthier counterparts. In England the same figure is 2.4, while in Wales and Northern Ireland, poorer students are three times more likely to do so.
All good fun but I'd wonder if the English figures are skewed by poor immigrant families sending their offspring to university rather than any great rise in WWC enrolment, as well as the the greater role of non-university HE north of the border.
Comments
In the last year, we've had some polls with Labour ahead
Meanwhile, in my local pub he is just a laughing stock.
And the Tory party only ever panics in a crisis. Hefty poll leads for Corbyn counts as a crisis for Mrs May
I did point this out to the Teenage Momentum Middle Class Hobby Socialist of my acquaintance, who was astonished to learn that the PIRA were still fairly unpopular with most of Middle England.
I'd need to lay in several sackfuls of popcorn for the press coverage of a McDonnell led Labour election campaign.
Their two children were adopted in the US.
His wife and children are already in their home country.
And another price on them being 5% or more ahead in one please
But my wallet is empty after Christmas and the Sales.
If Bayrou were to endorse Macron, rather than merely sit on the sidelines, you could probably assume two thirds of his vote went to him. That would put Macron 19-21% (depending on which starting poll you chose).
Now, sure, it all depends on who the Socialists choose.
But here's the thing: the FN has repeatedly - and often by large margins - underperformed its polling. And if you're a PS or Green voter and it looks like its Fillon vs Le Pen in the Second Round, might you vote tactically for Macron in the first?
I admit that - having bet on Macron in the 20s (and advised all and sundry on here to do so) - I might be biased. But the poll difference between Macron and Le Pen has been closing, and I think there is greater than 50% chance that Bayrou endorses Macron.
Would I bet on Macron? Not at current prices. But I wouldn't bet on Le Pen (who trails Fillon 70:30 in the polls) at odds less than 12-1 or so. She is the clear short.
More interesting would be to bet on Macron.
And, ummm, didn't we all have crushes (requited or not) on our drama teachers at school.
"I oversaw the decision to prosecute so many Sun journalists. Vote for me."
That's gold dust in a Labour leadership contest. When can I vote for him?
I want to lay Le Pen. Given she (personally) didn't even come close in the most FN friendly region of France against an insipid LR candidate in the immediate aftermath of the Bataclan and Nice attaks, I can't see how she can possibly win the Presidency absent a massive shock.
She trails Fillon 70:30 in the second round. In a US election where there was a 70:30 polling differential it would be 40-1 for the challenger, not 6-1.
So, why do you expect her to win the first round?
I'll give you +3. So, EM has to beat PS by 3 percentage points.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Socialist_Party_presidential_primary,_2017
One has her tying.
Come on, don't be frit.
You posted a bogus poll with Le Pen in the 40s a month back.
Shall we say twenty quid on the winner of the first round (I say not Le Pen), and twenty quid on on EM vs PS+3.
Can't say fairer than that.
I would have thought SeanT's predilictions would give him a boost in the French polls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2016
It was the brief golden period of Corbyn's leadership.
* Assuming Hispanics are 'non-white'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/04/family-man-shot-dead-police-join-mp-appeal-calm-protests/
oh sorry wrong link....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-38509806
Hard to believe they are talking about the same person
What I do find a little creepy is that Macron's wife was his teacher at school. But that's only because I conjure up an image of a 17 year old with his 41 year old teacher. For all I know, maybe after he left school the first time they met again was when he was 28. She's probably nothing like a female Oliver Reed or Bill Wyman.
As for Marine Le Pen, I don't think she's heading centrewards. More likely, she's getting in the face of the electorate and making a lot of news. It worked for Trump. Own the discourse, make it your election, and then on voting day go and collect what you own. And we probably ain't seen nothing yet.
Also I don't think she's ever said she wanted France to leave the EU.
Hauts-de-France regional election, 2015:
R1: 1st: Le Pen, 41%, 909000 votes (polling predicted 42%)
2nd: Bertrand, 25%, 558000 votes
turnout 55%
R2: 1st Bertrand, 58%, 1389000 votes (polling for R2 before R1 predicted 53%)
2nd Le Pen, 42%, 1016000 votes
turnout 61%
In the presidential election, turnout will probably exceed 80% in both rounds.
I think North Korea would be a nuclear wasteland long before Trump even bothered to ask May to lend a hand......but if she was asked, I've no doubt she'd do it - witness her instant three letter one word reply when asked if she'd use our nuclear deterrent.....which at least demonstrates she understands the point of a deterrent....
Despite offering free tuition, Scotland has the worst record than anywhere else in the UK when it comes to getting students from poorer backgrounds into university, says new report.
The Access to Scotland report from social mobility charity The Sutton Trust has found there to be a narrowing of the gap between rich and poor young people entering higher education (HE) across the UK in recent years.
However, despite improvements, young disadvantaged Scottish people are four times less likely to go to university than their wealthier counterparts. In England the same figure is 2.4, while in Wales and Northern Ireland, poorer students are three times more likely to do so.
http://www.independent.co.uk/student/into-university/scottish-universities-worst-in-the-uk-for-admitting-poorer-students-despite-having-no-tuition-fees-a7051521.html
If North Korea is going to nuke LA or Seattle, do you seriously think they aren't going to attack Seoul - the US has to make clear the price of aggression is catastrophically prohibitive....and the Russians & Chinese won't mind.....
He knows Theresa May was a remainer right? Along with 48% of those who voted?
Fantastic article - should be compulsive reading for Meeks, TSE, etc - enough to completely blow up so many closed minds
Striking that the top 5 replacements are all men.
Lisa Nandy would get support from Owen Jones I think but maybe has spoilt her chances by turning against Corbyn.
Now, for the more difficult ones...
Just a swivel eyed loon frothing at his mouth.
As an aside, what progress has Corbyn and Momentum made recently in changing the party's rules and the NEC to their liking? It all seems to have gone a little quiet.
The actual increase in the number of applications from Britain was just over 20,000, and many of those will just be for an insurance policy.
* And one of them may be my lighthouse keeping friend who fell in love with a coal merchant.
Well, if it was a State school, JB doesn't mind "socialism" as much as he says he does, and if it was a private one he failed to practice due diligence as a parent and a service consumer. But then, ordinary people do throw their money away - it's how bookies and casinos stay in business.
"Why would anyone support Hillary Clinton — a ruthless, charmless Washington insider with socialist tendencies? Why do lawyers, churchmen, the BBC and, indeed, most educated people support the EU — an organisation as saturated with smug self-righteousness as it is with corruption; one which created the euro, which in turn has caused millions of people to be unemployed; an organisation which combines a yawning democratic deficit with incompetence over immigration and economic growth?"
There might be an interesting article on the education of the Establishment: is there a common view across party lines amongst politicians and civil servants who read PPE at Oxford, for instance? In Cameron's governments, were there systematic political differences between Old Etonians and the rest? But this Spectator article reads like it has been phoned in after a particularly good lunch.
And throwing out the red meat for Felix (there's a catfood joke in there but I can't quite work it out) is probably the best way to go.
What writers do you read who you normally disagree with... But you enjoy reading them and sometimes they even change your mind?
For me Daniel Hannan (shame he no longer has telegraph blog), John Redwood and Peter Hitchens.
"Vanilla stuffed up" is an effect, not a causal factor.
(Engineers rushing to get an update out before the Christmas break might be a causal factor, though)