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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium has the CON lead over LAB down by 5%
Opinium has the LDs down to 6% & CON lead down 5 to 7%
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like Danny..
Long remainery rant...
SNIP
Anyway, more interestingly, CNN is apparently reporting (via Telegraph) that the US will withdraw from NAFTA within 200 days and replace it with a Canada only agreement which will be joined in due course by the U.K.
2016, like 2001 and 1989, has been a pivot.
One era has ended. A new one begins.
ICM had the lead shrinking and Ipsos Mori had the Tory VI down.
I hope there's a YouGov poll next week.
May is massively ahead of the field here, she'd get a huge majority in a snap election.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/17/exclusive-britain-will-front-queue-trade-deal-us-donald-trumps/
The poll doesn't pass the sniff test.
Is the Tory vote really departing for Labour?
No.
Don't we see this every time around various school holidays?
Don't we see this every time around various school holidays? "
Yes.
Where Cadburys goes, the country will follow.
' Unless we have an election on it, although I don't think that's very likely as that would be electoral suicide from Labour.'
But elections are never held on single issues even if a PM calls one for a particular reason. Ted Heath found that out in February 1974 when he called the election in response to the decision of the NUM to strike. In the campaign other issues came to the fore , and I believe the same would happen if May was able to call an election in 2017.
Off-topic:
Uber versus the DMV over autonomous cars.
http://arstechnica.co.uk/cars/2016/12/uber-wont-apply-for-an-autonomous-car-permit-in-california/
They need slapping down. hard.
I've been laying Ore this past week.
'And at a time when we are oh so desperate for a deal. The usual cheerleaders will eat it up, of course.'
But presumably quite OK if it was the EU that made a trade deal with the US or was that just desperate stuff as well ?
"It is a basic principle of the EU that anyone who has a legal right to be in the EU has a right to be anywhere within the EU. It is the fundamental principle of freedom of movement."
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/979888/#Comment_979888
I know you don't personally care about freedom of movement so it's perhaps forgiveable that you don't understand how it currently operates...
And our desperate stance makes that even more true.
There are also geopolitical forces at play. Tying ourselves to Trump's America may require some rapid about turns in our foreign policy.
Thank gawd spurs and England cricketers aren't playing tomorrow.
You are obviously disapointed that we are no longer at the back of the queue
They need the highway patrol to stop every one of these and confiscate them, offer the 'driver' immunity from prosecution for undue care, if he hands over the keys.
This particular company have been asking for a big slap for a long time now, it's only a matter of time until they get it.
I do hope Brexit turns out as he expects. There's nothing worse than being a disappointed prophet.
"Our negotiating power is less than when we were part of a bigger bloc."
Our flexibility to get a deal that is right for us, is greater than when we were part of a bigger bloc.
You should be nailed on. You should only be worried if you were playing a Yorkshire team.
OGH
The US has a balance of trade deficit with the UK so there is an opportunity to reduce that with a new FTA with the UK.
What I really dislike about this is the company's summary dismissal of the drivers they blame for the accident.
Here in Cambridge we have a (mis)Guided Bus. There have been several accidents where, after a cursory investigation, the drivers have been disciplined and/or sacked. Whilst the drivers may have been to blame, the lax 'investigations' (which the company has a large hand in) may allow important causal factors to remain undiscovered.
One of the things Apple asked for in their recent letter about driverless cars is their request that companies be forced/encouraged to share de-identified data about crashes and near-misses, so the companies can learn from the mistakes of the others. The letter is well worth a read (*).
I can imagine what Uber's reaction to this would be. If so, they should be.
I'm unsure what the relevant regulations in the UK are, but I'd hope they are much tighter. Or are we also running headlong towards the cliff?
(*) It may have escaped readers' notice, but this is unusual praise for Apple from me.
https://twitter.com/RealNatalieRowe/status/810232595053182977
I know who I'd rather be "dictated" to (note the paranoiac verb).
Well, here we are.
Apple have the right idea, that these autonomous cars will only work if they can all talk to each other, so setting up half a dozen proprietary standards won't cut it. They should all also be able to learn from each others' mistakes, as happens in aviation and railways where accidents get investigated by someone impartial and safety reports get published publicly.
2016 votes 136,628,459
VEP 231,556,622
Turnout %59.004
Clinton vote %48.192
Trump vote %46.10
PV Winner Clinton
Will Next President Lose Popular Vote? YES
Anyway, I must abed, alarm goes off in six hours!
From a US perspective, Wilbur Ross's idea is worth at least considering. The US does have leverage. I should say that trade experts disagree with him because they think international trade is too complicated with supply chains to be simply a bilateral haggle that reflects the relative negotiating power of the countries concerned. They think international trade should be rules based.
But if the Wilbur Ross approach is good for America shouldn't we also be looking to increase trade and shift the balance in our favour? It won't work for us because we don't have the same kind of leverage the US does - certainly not against China, the EU and the US. Chile, maybe, but they are not important.
It takes time, sure, but that's democracy in a customs union.
Take a look at how many EU FTAs there are.
The idea that the EU is a moribund autarchy is another Brexit myth. (See also, "the EU is holding us back from being a successful exporter").
Our exports to the EU are said to be shrinking at a rate of 1% p.a. by ONS over the last eight years, while global exports are growing at 5% per annum. The EU has transitioned to minority market for us.
Even without a helping hand, that trend points to the EU being under 30% of our exports within another seven to eight years.
Gaining free and willing partners from elsewhere will most probably see this accelerate, and without the social impositions that the public object to.
The EU has declined relatively as a trading partner as our business with the emerging markets of China etc has grown. To be expected.
It is still by far our largest market, though - not a "minority market", whatever that is.
Cutting ourselves adrift will have significant consequences even if life is ultimately better in the long run (as Brexiters presumably believe it will be, although one hears that said less these days).
Britain the consumer does not need to tie itself so closely to the EU.
A 44% share of 100% global trade is a minority, and it is shrinking. We are different to most of Europe in having the EU as a minority partner. Non-EU is the majority for us.
As Mark Senior reports there is a Lib Dem improvement, mainly in the south, but the conservatives are doing well in Scotland, Wales and most of England, while Labour is losing all over the Country with one or two exceptions
I do not think the conservatives are below 40% but I do think the Lib Dems are at 10% or a little more, UKIP near 12% and labour in the region of 26%. I would expect the Lib Dems and UKIP to crossover in the early new year
Re a joint trade deal with the US and Canada it would be a big vote of confidence, especially if there is a memorandum of intention before we leave the EU
The big issue is how Trump sees the EU. If, and it is a very big if, he is listening to Farage and downplays the EU it could have very serious consequences for them .
Trump's relationship, or otherwise, with Merkel will be fascinating. She did take the high moral ground with him when Trump won the election.and she is very close to Obama, even though he will shortly be out of Office
These are amazing times we are living through
Which other free trade area/deal imposes the social rules the EU does? It's out of kilter.
I have a notion of an explanation, which is that the much maligned Euro is doing its job of encouraging trade and that spills outside the Eurozone itself. This doesn't have anything to do with Brexit by the way. We were never going to join the Euro.
The three most recent polls have given Labour poll ratings of 27%, 29% and now 31%. On that basis 26% seems too low - particularly as ICM has tended to understate Labour and last had them on 27%.
One thing that will become clear over the coming months is whether Farage has that power or he has not
Non-EU member states: 166*
(* UN member states)
Greatest annual growth in exports to the UK are coming from Lithuania, Bulgaria, Poland. Cheap labour?
Growth from the old EU is very small, if at all - with the exception of the Germans who are skilfully managing an undervalued currency courtesy of the Greeks et al.
It's hard to see what has been in the EU's eastern expansion for us in terms of exports. It's a similar question to the one confronting the Americans about Mexico.
Non EU States 93% of world population.
Yet tying ourselves to the 7% actively inhibits our trade with the other 93%.
It won't be a surprise:
https://twitter.com/michaelharrisdr/status/809944310716203009
A new NAFTA replacing Mexico with Britain makes sense for both sides.
The Netherlands for instance is simply a large port for German products leaving the EU.
As is Hong Kong for Chinese products leaving China.