EU Member states 7% of world population. Non EU States 93% of world population.
Yet tying ourselves to the 7% actively inhibits our trade with the other 93%.
Is London held back by being tied to the rest of the UK that makes up such an insignificant percentage of the world's population? Perhaps it should break free as an independent city state...
Your question answers itself. No London is not being held back by the rest of the UK because UK laws do not restrict London trading with the rest of the world. In fact one might reasonably claim that UK laws are very London-centric.
By being more open to the US and similar others, potentially displacing existing EU imports.
Britain the consumer does not need to tie itself so closely to the EU.
I am not sure it works that way. But leaving aside all the other stuff there is a real question as to why the rEU are getting better and better at selling to us, while we are not increasing our exports to them.
I have a notion of an explanation, which is that the much maligned Euro is doing its job of encouraging trade and that spills outside the Eurozone itself. This doesn't have anything to do with Brexit by the way. We were never going to join the Euro.
Thinking about it, maybe it does have to do with Brexit. People who say we should get away from the EU because it is declining are barking up the wrong tree IMO. The question for Britain specifically is why we are not exporting as much we should expect to. In particular we are not exporting as much as should to the EU. We should be working out how to improve rather than cut us ourselves off further.
Isn't it as simple as that we are not producing more of what the EU27 want to buy, at the right price?
By being more open to the US and similar others, potentially displacing existing EU imports.
Britain the consumer does not need to tie itself so closely to the EU.
I am not sure it works that way. But leaving aside all the other stuff there is a real question as to why the rEU are getting better and better at selling to us, while we are not increasing our exports to them.
I have a notion of an explanation, which is that the much maligned Euro is doing its job of encouraging trade and that spills outside the Eurozone itself. This doesn't have anything to do with Brexit by the way. We were never going to join the Euro.
It's worth examing the tables in the link downthread.
Greatest annual growth in exports to the UK are coming from Lithuania, Bulgaria, Poland. Cheap labour?
Growth from the old EU is very small, if at all - with the exception of the Germans who are skilfully managing an undervalued currency courtesy of the Greeks et al.
It's hard to see what has been in the EU's eastern expansion for us in terms of exports. It's a similar question to the one confronting the Americans about Mexico.
I'm afraid that's not a correct reading. The Germans are doing very well with exports. The others are also on average increasing exports faster than the UK . I think Italy may be an exception. There is the EU export helpdesk or something that has detailedfigures that I looked at some time back. Top line Exports as % of GDP can be seen in this chart
Germany is doing well because it has an artificially low currency designed to maximise its trade to the detriment of much of the rest of Europe.
By being more open to the US and similar others, potentially displacing existing EU imports.
Britain the consumer does not need to tie itself so closely to the EU.
I am not sure it works that way. But leaving aside all the other stuff there is a real question as to why the rEU are getting better and better at selling to us, while we are not increasing our exports to them.
I have a notion of an explanation, which is that the much maligned Euro is doing its job of encouraging trade and that spills outside the Eurozone itself. This doesn't have anything to do with Brexit by the way. We were never going to join the Euro.
It's worth examing the tables in the link downthread.
Greatest annual growth in exports to the UK are coming from Lithuania, Bulgaria, Poland. Cheap labour?
Growth from the old EU is very small, if at all - with the exception of the Germans who are skilfully managing an undervalued currency courtesy of the Greeks et al.
It's hard to see what has been in the EU's eastern expansion for us in terms of exports. It's a similar question to the one confronting the Americans about Mexico.
I'm afraid that's not a correct reading. The Germans are doing very well with exports. The others are also on average increasing exports faster than the UK . I think Italy may be an exception. There is the EU export helpdesk or something that has detailedfigures that I looked at some time back. Top line Exports as % of GDP can be seen in this chart
Some of those countries seem to have exports greater than their GDP. How can that be?
GDP includes the value that is added in a country (net exports - imports) plus various other things. So if you import goods modify them and export them again your exports could be bigger than your GDP. If you go to the EU Export Help Desk figures you can see the largest part of the increase in Eurozone exports is to other EU countries. Not surpising that a common currency facilitates internal trade. It may also facilitate external trade because Eurozone exports outside the EU have also grown faster than UK exports have. It may also have facilitated exports from the Eurozone to the UK for the same reason. I am speculating, but the boost to Eurozone exports - to each other; outside the EU and to the UK are coincidental with the introduction of the Euro.
On this Opinium poll the Tories are up 1% on the last general election, UKIP and Labour unchanged and the LDs down 2%. So all those council by election gains and the Richmond Park by election result have been for nought! (I agree it is probably a rogue though and LDs are a bit higher)
By being more open to the US and similar others, potentially displacing existing EU imports.
Britain the consumer does not need to tie itself so closely to the EU.
I am not sure it works that way. But leaving aside all the other stuff there is a real question as to why the rEU are getting better and better at selling to us, while we are not increasing our exports to them.
I have a notion of an explanation, which is that the much maligned Euro is doing its job of encouraging trade and that spills outside the Eurozone itself. This doesn't have anything to do with Brexit by the way. We were never going to join the Euro.
It's worth examing the tables in the link downthread.
Greatest annual growth in exports to the UK are coming from Lithuania, Bulgaria, Poland. Cheap labour?
Growth from the old EU is very small, if at all - with the exception of the Germans who are skilfully managing an undervalued currency courtesy of the Greeks et al.
It's hard to see what has been in the EU's eastern expansion for us in terms of exports. It's a similar question to the one confronting the Americans about Mexico.
I'm afraid that's not a correct reading. The Germans are doing very well with exports. The others are also on average increasing exports faster than the UK . I think Italy may be an exception. There is the EU export helpdesk or something that has detailedfigures that I looked at some time back. Top line Exports as % of GDP can be seen in this chart
Germany is doing well because it has an artificially low currency designed to maximise its trade to the detriment of much of the rest of Europe.
Eurozone countries other than Germany are on average increasing their exports faster than the UK is, including to outside the EU
By being more open to the US and similar others, potentially displacing existing EU imports.
Britain the consumer does not need to tie itself so closely to the EU.
I am not sure it works that way. But leaving aside all the other stuff there is a real question as to why the rEU are getting better and better at selling to us, while we are not increasing our exports to them.
I have a notion of an explanation, which is that the much maligned Euro is doing its job of encouraging trade and that spills outside the Eurozone itself. This doesn't have anything to do with Brexit by the way. We were never going to join the Euro.
Thinking about it, maybe it does have to do with Brexit. People who say we should get away from the EU because it is declining are barking up the wrong tree IMO. The question for Britain specifically is why we are not exporting as much we should expect to. In particular we are not exporting as much as should to the EU. We should be working out how to improve rather than cut us ourselves off further.
Isn't it as simple as that we are not producing more of what the EU27 want to buy, at the right price?
Is it what the rest of the world wants to buy?
We are doing relatively poorly at exporting to the rest of the world, compared with the rest of the EU. But I agree with what I think you are implying - the two things aren't exclusive. We can improve across the board.
Hyufd. That poll wasnt too bad. Ore was around 17/2 earlier today so their poll was much closer than the bookies had it. I said on here that danny was a bad odds on fav after the semis but i did think it would be louise rather than ore.
Anyway, more interestingly, CNN is apparently reporting (via Telegraph) that the US will withdraw from NAFTA within 200 days and replace it with a Canada only agreement which will be joined in due course by the U.K.
2016, like 2001 and 1989, has been a pivot. One era has ended. A new one begins.
Well it makes strategic sense for both America and Britain.
A new NAFTA replacing Mexico with Britain makes sense for both sides.
If we become the new Mexico will we end up becoming unpopular and having a wall built to keep us out?
Well we don't have a land border with the USA, so no fear of illegal immigrants going either way through the atlantic ocean.
Also Britain, America and Canada are quite similar in economic development and trade. That all 3 speak the same language and share a lot of history and culture together is an extra plus.
In the end Ore probably won it because he did not have any dance experience unlike the other 2 but even so having Ore last sums up the last 18 months for yougov after it called the general election, the EU referendum and the US presidential election wrong, Khan's win in the London Mayor race and Corbyn's election as Mayor of London are about the only things it got right and those were by such comfortable margins it would have been very difficult to get them wrong
Jeremy Corbyn walked out of a Christmas karaoke party for Labour MPs where they sang Tony Blair’s 1997 Election-winning anthem Things Can Only Get Better accompanied by chants of: ‘We Want Tony!’
Hyufd. That poll wasnt too bad. Ore was around 17/2 earlier today so their poll was much closer than the bookies had it. I said on here that danny was a bad odds on fav after the semis but i did think it would be louise rather than ore.
Ore did a very good first dance, with a classic song. I thought it a bit long on those odds so put a couple of quid on. Nice one!
Jeremy Corbyn walked out of a Christmas karaoke party for Labour MPs where they sang Tony Blair’s 1997 Election-winning anthem Things Can Only Get Better accompanied by chants of: ‘We Want Tony!’
In the end Ore probably won it because he did not have any dance experience unlike the other 2 but even so having Ore last sums up the last 18 months for yougov after it called the general election, the EU referendum and the US presidential election wrong, Khan's win in the London Mayor race and Corbyn's election as Mayor of London are about the only things it got right and those were by such comfortable margins it would have been very difficult to get them wrong
Corbyn was elected Mayor of London?
YouGov also got the Scottish devolved election right, which was great for those of us who backed the SNP to lose their majority at 8/1
Jezza really is a sensitive flower isn't he...and given he spent pretty much his whole career as a backbencher with opposing views of his own party you would think he was used to a difference of opinion.
WG Interestingly today Opinium had Wales the only nation wanting hard Brexit, both Scotland and England wanted soft Brexit, though in England it was quite close
I'm not working this week (first proper holiday since...shit, last Xmas. Yikes), "Inside Man" is on one of the ITVs, and I have many clarets to get thru. So you're just going to have to cope without me tonite. See ya laters, alligators.
By being more open to the US and similar others, potentially displacing existing EU imports.
Britain the consumer does not need to tie itself so closely to the EU.
I am not sure it works that way. But leaving aside all the other stuff there is a real question as to why the rEU are getting better and better at selling to us, while we are not increasing our exports to them.
I have a notion of an explanation, which is that the much maligned Euro is doing its job of encouraging trade and that spills outside the Eurozone itself. This doesn't have anything to do with Brexit by the way. We were never going to join the Euro.
It's worth examing the tables in the link downthread.
Greatest annual growth in exports to the UK are coming from Lithuania, Bulgaria, Poland. Cheap labour?
Growth from the old EU is very small, if at all - with the exception of the Germans who are skilfully managing an undervalued currency courtesy of the Greeks et al.
It's hard to see what has been in the EU's eastern expansion for us in terms of exports. It's a similar question to the one confronting the Americans about Mexico.
I'm afraid that's not a correct reading. The Germans are doing very well with exports. The others are also on average increasing exports faster than the UK . I think Italy may be an exception. There is the EU export helpdesk or something that has detailedfigures that I looked at some time back. Top line Exports as % of GDP can be seen in this chart
Germany is doing well because it has an artificially low currency designed to maximise its trade to the detriment of much of the rest of Europe.
In the same way that London is doing well because it has an artificially low currency designed to maximise its trade to the detriment of much of the rest of the country?
Note the contrast. The share of UK exports that goes to the EU has dropped from 55% in 2008 to 44% in 2015. The share of UK imports that comes from the EU has risen from 50% in 2008 to 53% in 2015. And as a consequence while trade with the EU accounted for only 38% of the UK's trade deficit in 2008, it now accounts for 80% of it.
So the UK market has become more valuable to the rest of the EU, while the EU market has become far less valuable to the UK, over a relatively short period. Nor, as the EU continues to make a fetish out of practising extreme austerity locked into its very constitution (sorry, "treaties"), would there be any prospect of that trend halting let alone reversing without a shock such as Brexit. So in the context of those extreme and growing trade imbalances, the only issue should be how much is the EU prepared to pay the UK to continue the open market arrangements that operate so much to the EU's benefit.
By being more open to the US and similar others, potentially displacing existing EU imports.
Britain the consumer does not need to tie itself so closely to the EU.
I am not sure it works that way. But leaving aside all the other stuff there is a real question as to why the rEU are getting better and better at selling to us, while we are not increasing our exports to them.
I have a notion of an explanation, which is that the much maligned Euro is doing its job of encouraging trade and that spills outside the Eurozone itself. This doesn't have anything to do with Brexit by the way. We were never going to join the Euro.
It's worth examing the tables in the link downthread.
Greatest annual growth in exports to the UK are coming from Lithuania, Bulgaria, Poland. Cheap labour?
Growth from the old EU is very small, if at all - with the exception of the Germans who are skilfully managing an undervalued currency courtesy of the Greeks et al.
It's hard to see what has been in the EU's eastern expansion for us in terms of exports. It's a similar question to the one confronting the Americans about Mexico.
I'm afraid that's not a correct reading. The Germans are doing very well with exports. The others are also on average increasing exports faster than the UK . I think Italy may be an exception. There is the EU export helpdesk or something that has detailedfigures that I looked at some time back. Top line Exports as % of GDP can be seen in this chart
Germany is doing well because it has an artificially low currency designed to maximise its trade to the detriment of much of the rest of Europe.
In the same way that London is doing well because it has an artificially low currency designed to maximise its trade to the detriment of much of the rest of the country?
Nope. London doing well benefits the country as a whole. Germany doing well does not benefit the rest of Europe and certainly not those parts of it outside the Eurozone.
Just got back after the second of the three staff Christmas parties and just when I thought my night had hit Peak Magnificence what do I see .... LDs on 6%
'On this Opinium poll the Tories are up 1% on the last general election, UKIP and Labour unchanged and the LDs down 2%. So all those council by election gains and the Richmond Park by election result have been for nought! (I agree it is probably a rogue though and LDs are a bit higher) '
The Tory and Labour shares are exactly the same as the last general election after rounding - Labour polled 31.2% with the Tories on 37.8% last year.As i said earlier this is not an outlier from Opinium in that it finds the parties well within the range of all its published polls since May 2015.
So no change then from the Tory majority of May 2015, only difference is the LDs are a little lower than most other polls and Labour a little higher. Goodnight.
By being more open to the US and similar others, potentially displacing existing EU imports.
Britain the consumer does not need to tie itself so closely to the EU.
I am not sure it works that way. But leaving aside all the other stuff there is a real question as to why the rEU are getting better and better at selling to us, while we are not increasing our exports to them.
I have a notion of an explanation, which is that the much maligned Euro is doing its job of encouraging trade and that spills outside the Eurozone itself. This doesn't have anything to do with Brexit by the way. We were never going to join the Euro.
It's worth examing the tables in the link downthread.
Greatest annual growth in exports to the UK are coming from Lithuania, Bulgaria, Poland. Cheap labour?
Growth from the old EU is very small, if at all - with the exception of the Germans who are skilfully managing an undervalued currency courtesy of the Greeks et al.
It's hard to see what has been in the EU's eastern expansion for us in terms of exports. It's a similar question to the one confronting the Americans about Mexico.
I'm afraid that's not a correct reading. The Germans are doing very well with exports. The others are also on average increasing exports faster than the UK . I think Italy may be an exception. There is the EU export helpdesk or something that has detailedfigures that I looked at some time back. Top line Exports as % of GDP can be seen in this chart
Germany is doing well because it has an artificially low currency designed to maximise its trade to the detriment of much of the rest of Europe.
In the same way that London is doing well because it has an artificially low currency designed to maximise its trade to the detriment of much of the rest of the country?
London ploughs money back into the UK economy via taxation and spending. Germany does nothing of the sort within the EU, she keeps her gains and watches as the rest of Europe suffers in poverty.
I love Tom Watson's "non-endorsement" of Gerard Coyne, who could replace McCluskey as Unite leader.
"It is a golden rule for Labour politicians never to interfere in union elections but (Unite members) have a big choice to make - British workers have had a terrible decade when it comes to pay and conditions and they will want to know the person leading the biggest union is totally focused on their interests.
"I say to Unite members make sure you use your vote - it's a vital election and very often people can win elections like these on a very low turnout.
"The general secretary has a great influence on politics. Len McCluskey is a close personal friend of Jeremy Corbyn. Members can help change the course of history if they decide to vote."
A penny for the thoughts of the reams of idealistic young Corbynistas who put Watson down as their preferred Deputy because he has a big media profile, helped decapitate Blair, and stuck one to Murdoch...
On the other side of the political spectrum, nice to see that pointless virtue signalling is not confined to the Left: "British values oath proposed for public office holders" http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38355373 (with obligatory picture of Sajid Javid looking seriously and a quote saying something about his parents)
Note the contrast. The share of UK exports that goes to the EU has dropped from 55% in 2008 to 44% in 2015. The share of UK imports that comes from the EU has risen from 50% in 2008 to 53% in 2015. And as a consequence while trade with the EU accounted for only 38% of the UK's trade deficit in 2008, it now accounts for 80% of it.
So the UK market has become more valuable to the rest of the EU, while the EU market has become far less valuable to the UK, over a relatively short period. Nor, as the EU continues to make a fetish out of practising extreme austerity locked into its very constitution (sorry, "treaties"), would there be any prospect of that trend halting let alone reversing without a shock such as Brexit. So in the context of those extreme and growing trade imbalances, the only issue should be how much is the EU prepared to pay the UK to continue the open market arrangements that operate so much to the EU's benefit.
Another way of looking at it is 8% of EU exports (includes intra EU exports) go to the UK.
Whilst as you say... 44% of our exports go to the EU.
By being more open to the US and similar others, potentially displacing existing EU imports.
Britain the consumer does not need to tie itself so closely to the EU.
I am not sure it works that way. But leaving aside all the other stuff there is a real question as to why the rEU are getting better and better at selling to us, while we are not increasing our exports to them.
I have a notion of an explanation, which is that the much maligned Euro is doing its job of encouraging trade and that spills outside the Eurozone itself. This doesn't have anything to do with Brexit by the way. We were never going to join the Euro.
It's worth examing the tables in the link downthread.
Greatest annual growth in exports to the UK are coming from Lithuania, Bulgaria, Poland. Cheap labour?
Growth from the old EU is very small, if at all - with the exception of the Germans who are skilfully managing an undervalued currency courtesy of the Greeks et al.
It's hard to see what has been in the EU's eastern expansion for us in terms of exports. It's a similar question to the one confronting the Americans about Mexico.
I'm afraid that's not a correct reading. The Germans are doing very well with exports. The others are also on average increasing exports faster than the UK . I think Italy may be an exception. There is the EU export helpdesk or something that has detailedfigures that I looked at some time back. Top line Exports as % of GDP can be seen in this chart
Some of those countries seem to have exports greater than their GDP. How can that be?
Sturgeon seems to be the only British politican that actually has a Brexit plan so she'll probably gets what she wants just on that basis.
Lets see whether its really much beyond 'Having cake and eating it'.
She seems awfully worried about maintaining access to the 'Single Market' that accounts for 15% of Scotland's trade, and to do this threatens to leave the market that accounts for 64% of Scotland's trade......
Regarding trade, it is worth remembering that raw numbers also include some pass through. So, for example, almost all of Ireland's gas used to arrive in the UK on the Langeled pipeline from Norway, which would the be re-exported to Ireland over SNIP. This counted as imports from outside the EU, and exports to the EU. In reality, the only money that stuck in the UK was the transit fee. When natural gas prices were high - lets say 2007 - this exaggerated our exports to the EU.
Since gas started to flow at the Corib field, Ireland has ceased importing natural gas from Norway via the UK. (Temporarily. Corib will decline pretty quickly, and Ireland will be reimporting, albeit at a lower level, from 2017 again.)
This, of course, is not a massive part of the UK's export numbers. But it serves to show that using raw numbers includes an awful lot of pass through.
Another example: a significant proportion of Apple products that are consumed in the UK (and the EU) come via Ireland where they are packaged manufactured. When you buy an iPad, that might technically be counted as an import from the EU. In reality, only a small portion of the value is added in Ireland. It's just a way of Apple minimising customs duties.
The best data is to look at is the proportion of value add that is exported to the EU (and conversely to the UK). That avoids overweighting pass through products.
Lets see whether its really much beyond 'Having cake and eating it'.
She seems awfully worried about maintaining access to the 'Single Market' that accounts for 15% of Scotland's trade, and to do this threatens to leave the market that accounts for 64% of Scotland's trade......
I'm not saying it's a good plan or that it's founded in an ideology any more profound than 'I hate England' (the feeling's mutual, love) but it is, au moins, a plan. That puts her streets ahead of May and the three Brexitards.
Leaving the EU to join NAFTA would mean giving US based ISDS tribunals the right to over-ride national laws (see Quebec vs Monsanto). It's not clear to me why we want to swap the sovereignty of the ECJ for one of Monsanto.
By being more open to the US and similar others, potentially displacing existing EU imports.
Britain the consumer does not need to tie itself so closely to the EU.
I am not sure it works that way. But leaving aside all the other stuff there is a real question as to why the rEU are getting better and better at selling to us, while we are not increasing our exports to them.
I have a notion of an explanation, which is that the much maligned Euro is doing its job of encouraging trade and that spills outside the Eurozone itself. This doesn't have anything to do with Brexit by the way. We were never going to join the Euro.
It's worth examing the tables in the link downthread.
Greatest annual growth in exports to the UK are coming from Lithuania, Bulgaria, Poland. Cheap labour?
Growth from the old EU is very small, if at all - with the exception of the Germans who are skilfully managing an undervalued currency courtesy of the Greeks et al.
It's hard to see what has been in the EU's eastern expansion for us in terms of exports. It's a similar question to the one confronting the Americans about Mexico.
I'm afraid that's not a correct reading. The Germans are doing very well with exports. The others are also on average increasing exports faster than the UK . I think Italy may be an exception. There is the EU export helpdesk or something that has detailedfigures that I looked at some time back. Top line Exports as % of GDP can be seen in this chart
Apologies, I have not explained myself clearly.
The growth in exports that I am referring to is in bilateral trade between the UK and the EU as a whole where it has fallen since 2008, and between the UK and individual EU countries, where again we see largely stagnant levels of trade.
Note the contrast. The share of UK exports that goes to the EU has dropped from 55% in 2008 to 44% in 2015. The share of UK imports that comes from the EU has risen from 50% in 2008 to 53% in 2015. And as a consequence while trade with the EU accounted for only 38% of the UK's trade deficit in 2008, it now accounts for 80% of it.
So the UK market has become more valuable to the rest of the EU, while the EU market has become far less valuable to the UK, over a relatively short period. Nor, as the EU continues to make a fetish out of practising extreme austerity locked into its very constitution (sorry, "treaties"), would there be any prospect of that trend halting let alone reversing without a shock such as Brexit. So in the context of those extreme and growing trade imbalances, the only issue should be how much is the EU prepared to pay the UK to continue the open market arrangements that operate so much to the EU's benefit.
Another way of looking at it is 8% of EU exports (includes intra EU exports) go to the UK.
Whilst as you say... 44% of our exports go to the EU.
The EU isn't a single country. The relative importance of the UK is something to be looked at and worked upon in largely bilateral terms.
It is an act of madness that we have ceded independence and authority to so many utterly irrelevant nations.
Comments
Is it what the rest of the world wants to buy?
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/809780434439720960
Also Britain, America and Canada are quite similar in economic development and trade.
That all 3 speak the same language and share a lot of history and culture together is an extra plus.
Jeremy Corbyn walked out of a Christmas karaoke party for Labour MPs where they sang Tony Blair’s 1997 Election-winning anthem Things Can Only Get Better accompanied by chants of: ‘We Want Tony!’
Back in the USSR and Like a Virgin (Train) too...
YouGov also got the Scottish devolved election right, which was great for those of us who backed the SNP to lose their majority at 8/1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2016
May vs Corbyn:
18-34: +3
35-44: +32
45-54: +41
55-64: +65
65 + : +82
The Saddam interrogation
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4044216/CIA-agent-grilled-Saddam-Hussein-says-thought-knew-man-WRONG.html
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14973562.Sturgeon_reveals_Brexit_battle_plans_to_keep_Scotland_in_Single_Market/
Thanks for those trade stats.
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/Pages/Annual-Tables.aspx
Note the contrast. The share of UK exports that goes to the EU has dropped from 55% in 2008 to 44% in 2015. The share of UK imports that comes from the EU has risen from 50% in 2008 to 53% in 2015. And as a consequence while trade with the EU accounted for only 38% of the UK's trade deficit in 2008, it now accounts for 80% of it.
So the UK market has become more valuable to the rest of the EU, while the EU market has become far less valuable to the UK, over a relatively short period. Nor, as the EU continues to make a fetish out of practising extreme austerity locked into its very constitution (sorry, "treaties"), would there be any prospect of that trend halting let alone reversing without a shock such as Brexit. So in the context of those extreme and growing trade imbalances, the only issue should be how much is the EU prepared to pay the UK to continue the open market arrangements that operate so much to the EU's benefit.
Ahaha ahahaha haha hahahaha ahhhhhh
The Tory and Labour shares are exactly the same as the last general election after rounding - Labour polled 31.2% with the Tories on 37.8% last year.As i said earlier this is not an outlier from Opinium in that it finds the parties well within the range of all its published polls since May 2015.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38347947
I love Tom Watson's "non-endorsement" of Gerard Coyne, who could replace McCluskey as Unite leader.
"It is a golden rule for Labour politicians never to interfere in union elections but (Unite members) have a big choice to make - British workers have had a terrible decade when it comes to pay and conditions and they will want to know the person leading the biggest union is totally focused on their interests.
"I say to Unite members make sure you use your vote - it's a vital election and very often people can win elections like these on a very low turnout.
"The general secretary has a great influence on politics. Len McCluskey is a close personal friend of Jeremy Corbyn. Members can help change the course of history if they decide to vote."
A penny for the thoughts of the reams of idealistic young Corbynistas who put Watson down as their preferred Deputy because he has a big media profile, helped decapitate Blair, and stuck one to Murdoch...
Whilst as you say... 44% of our exports go to the EU.
When people talk in percentages rather than absolute numbers, they tend to do so to confuse or to hide.
Net net, EU-UK has a huge trade surplus with the UK.
Net net Nepal has an enormous trade deficit with India. This does not mean that Nepal is vital to Indian trade.
She seems awfully worried about maintaining access to the 'Single Market' that accounts for 15% of Scotland's trade, and to do this threatens to leave the market that accounts for 64% of Scotland's trade......
Since gas started to flow at the Corib field, Ireland has ceased importing natural gas from Norway via the UK. (Temporarily. Corib will decline pretty quickly, and Ireland will be reimporting, albeit at a lower level, from 2017 again.)
This, of course, is not a massive part of the UK's export numbers. But it serves to show that using raw numbers includes an awful lot of pass through.
Another example: a significant proportion of Apple products that are consumed in the UK (and the EU) come via Ireland where they are packaged manufactured. When you buy an iPad, that might technically be counted as an import from the EU. In reality, only a small portion of the value is added in Ireland. It's just a way of Apple minimising customs duties.
The best data is to look at is the proportion of value add that is exported to the EU (and conversely to the UK). That avoids overweighting pass through products.
Leaving the EU to join NAFTA would mean giving US based ISDS tribunals the right to over-ride national laws (see Quebec vs Monsanto). It's not clear to me why we want to swap the sovereignty of the ECJ for one of Monsanto.
The growth in exports that I am referring to is in bilateral trade between the UK and the EU as a whole where it has fallen since 2008, and between the UK and individual EU countries, where again we see largely stagnant levels of trade.
It's conceivable that she will alienate both.
It is an act of madness that we have ceded independence and authority to so many utterly irrelevant nations.