politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Richmond Park by election polling boost for the LDs from Ips

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Richmond Park by election polling boost for the LDs from Ipsos MORI: up 4% to 14%

.@IpsosMORI regional splits LDsNorth 12%Midlands 11%South 18% London 13%Scotland 11%No separate figure for SW

Read the full story here

HYUFD

Mori G20 poll on Brexit.

32% globally had a positive view of Brexit and 21% negative.

36% of EU nationals had a negative view of Brexit and 17% positive. However 33% of Commonwealth nationals had a positive view of Brexit and 20% negative. In the rest of the G20 35% viewed Brexit positively and 17% negatively.

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_58517127e4b00f3fd28c541f?icid=maing-grid7|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk2&pLid=-551712928_uk

AlastairMeeks

The public is noticing that the government is clueless about Brexit. Only the current absence of alternatives is sustaining the Conservatives in the polls.

Pulpstar

AlastairMeeks said:

The public is noticing that the government is clueless about Brexit. Only the current absence of alternatives is sustaining the Conservatives in the polls.

Well the public did vote for Brexit

FF43

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The public is noticing that the government is clueless about Brexit. Only the current absence of alternatives is sustaining the Conservatives in the polls.

Well the public did vote for Brexit

Quite. The public was clueless about Bexit, probably. At least in terms of outcomes.

Sandpit

Ooh, doing a bit crap on Brexit, or hiring yet more terrorist sympathisers. Decisions, decisions...

Sandpit

How many of those who think the govt are doing a bad job on Brexit, think that because they're annoyed we haven't left yet?

Same as all the Tories that think Corbyn's doing a fantastic job (of leading the Labour Party to electoral oblivion)!

GeoffM

Yay, a LibDem thread!

rural_voter

AlastairMeeks said:

The public is noticing that the government is clueless about Brexit. Only the current absence of alternatives is sustaining the Conservatives in the polls.

Well the public did vote for Brexit

Quite. The public was clueless about Bexit, probably. At least in terms of outcomes.

(NB the prev. quotes function seems not to be working for me.)

I find bexit is best taken at 07.00 or 08.00h. I eat a continental one, not a full English one although a large bowl of muesli is associated more with Switzerland than with the EU.

Maybe the difficulty some politicians have with Brexit in speeches - it comes out as 'breakfast' - means that they'll find leaving the EU equally difficult if not totally indigestible.

tpfkar

Sandpit said:

Ooh, doing a bit crap on Brexit, or hiring yet more terrorist sympathisers. Decisions, decisions...

A little more subtle than that - a cumulative loss of 6 points from both the big two. Maybe now that a General Election seems a long way off, there is increasing desire to protest against both of them - probably just a straw in the wind though.

TOPPING

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

Mori G20 poll on Brexit.

32% globally had a positive view of Brexit and 21% negative.

36% of EU nationals had a negative view of Brexit and 17% positive. However 33% of Commonwealth nationals had a positive view of Brexit and 20% negative. In the rest of the G20 35% viewed Brexit positively and 17% negatively.

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_58517127e4b00f3fd28c541f?icid=maing-grid7|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk2&pLid=-551712928_uk

As I've been saying for months. If you actually go abroad (beyond Europe) there's more people admiring Brexit than decrying it.

fpt

@SeanT if you want a Savile Row suit (do you really?) then go to Dege or Jones, Chalk and Dawson, or Welsh & Jefferies or Redwood and Feller (Victoria).

Each has a house style that you can see on their websites.

Huntsman recently changed hands but of course was the daddy. No idea of their approach now.

GeoffM

Sandpit 1:33PM
How many of those who think the govt are doing a bad job on Brexit, think that because they're annoyed we haven't left yet?

Same as all the Tories that think Corbyn's doing a fantastic job (of leading the Labour Party to electoral oblivion)!

Yes very much my attitude and my dilemma when filling in surveys about Corbyn, for example.

And as someone who'd just repeal the European Communities Act 1972 and stop the cheques tomorrow, yes I think all of this messing around with their "Article 50 mechanism" nonsense is doing a bad job.

HYUFD

SeanT Yes the Commonwealth in particular welcomes the UK restoring the relationship which was loosened when the UK joined the EEC and most other nations are positive on Brexit too outside the EU.

theakes

At last an Opinion Poll that is much more in line with the voting real;ities over the past 3 - 4 months. Interesting this means a more or less doubling of the Lib Dem percentage since May 2015, exactly in line with their performance at Sleaford.

Scott_P

@SkyNewsBreak: Sky plc - the owner of Sky News - has reached an agreement for takeover by 21st Century Fox

Scott_P

The leavers, you might imagine, would be brimming with seasonal good cheer. For some, this is the culmination of a life’s political work. They should be dancing in the streets. Instead, gripped by a fear that verges on paranoia, they see dark plots and dastardly conspiracies in every doorway.

Mrs May is fond of saying “Brexit means Brexit”. But it is easy to see how a transitional arrangement could turn into a final destination — that, even as Britain formally departs the EU not much else changes. Nor is it impossible to imagine that a recession would see popular support for Brexit waning fast.

The clear probability is that Britain will indeed leave the union but, to borrow from John Maynard Keynes, faced with some uncomfortable facts, the people might just change their minds. There resides the real source of the Brexiters’ neuroses. It has nothing to do with plots or conspiracies. It is called, simply, democracy.

https://www.ft.com/content/7b9bd4fc-c20d-11e6-9bca-2b93a6856354

Scott_P

@tnewtondunn: No10: PM's "intention" is to do EU exit deal and new trade arrangement within Article 50 time frame. I predict they will regret saying this.

Theuniondivvie

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

C'mon, we PB country mice live vicariously through you.

*starts chant*

BUY IT, BUY IT, BUY IT

MaxPB

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Business class to Hong Kong and back will br less. Including the suits.

Blue_rog

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

How many of those who think the govt are doing a bad job on Brexit, think that because they're annoyed we haven't left yet?

Same as all the Tories that think Corbyn's doing a fantastic job (of leading the Labour Party to electoral oblivion)!

Quite. I imagine 90% of Remainers think the Govt is doing a bad job on Brexit, because they think the job is intrinsically bad and can't be done well. They haven't changed their minds.

The poll movement is much more likely to be Leavers who want the whole thing hurried up, and fear that Brexit might not happen at all.

Incidentally, on that cringeworthy video of TMay being shunned in Brussels, it's interesting to note the instant human reaction (you can see it on Twitter). It's not: Look, this is what we deserve for Brexiting, it's Wow, I feel sorry for Ms May how dare these smelly foreigners be so rude.

I predict this is how Britons will react to a Brexit that gets tough and tricky. We will band together and become defensive, and stubborn, and angry - and more Brexity than ever.

Quite, I agree. The only hope the 48% have is to delay or prevent triggering article 50. Once it's triggered the majority of the country will unite and pull together. It will be a done deal then.

Sandpit

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Sean, next time you're travelling through Asia, stop off and buy a suit or two in Singapore or HK. Damn nearly as good, at a fraction of the price. Mohan's in SG, two jackets and four pairs of trousers for under a grand. Bespoke, not off the peg.

Edit :@MaxPB makes the same point. Saville Row is for those who want to tell everyone they meet that they got their suit from Saville Row!

FF43

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

How many of those who think the govt are doing a bad job on Brexit, think that because they're annoyed we haven't left yet?

Same as all the Tories that think Corbyn's doing a fantastic job (of leading the Labour Party to electoral oblivion)!

Quite. I imagine 90% of Remainers think the Govt is doing a bad job on Brexit, because they think the job is intrinsically bad and can't be done well. They haven't changed their minds.

The poll movement is much more likely to be Leavers who want the whole thing hurried up, and fear that Brexit might not happen at all.

Incidentally, on that cringeworthy video of TMay being shunned in Brussels, it's interesting to note the instant human reaction (you can see it on Twitter). It's not: Look, this is what we deserve for Brexiting, it's Wow, I feel sorry for Ms May how dare these smelly foreigners be so rude.

I predict this is how Britons will react to a Brexit that gets tough and tricky. We will band together and become defensive, and stubborn, and angry - and more Brexity than ever.

I'm in the "can't be done well camp", but am more interested in Leaver opinions. Leaving the EU is easy. Article 50, although designed to discourage exit, actually makes it easier thanks to its two year discussions-end-and-you are out guillotine. It's all good, provided you don't care about the deals the UK might make, or won't make, with the EU and the rest of the world.

So back to the 52% Leavers. Do they care if the promised sunlit uplands don't materialise and it's all very messy?

MaxPB

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Sean, next time you're travelling through Asia, stop off and buy a suit or two in Singapore or HK. Damn nearly as good, at a fraction of the price.

Edit :@MaxPB makes the same point. Saville Row is for those who want to tell everyone they meet that they got their suit from Saville Row!

I do believe that's what SeanT wants to do though!

Just checked, club class to HK is ~£3k.

Scott_P

SeanT said:

The FT. On Brexit. Really? Was it worth cutting and pasting

Totally worth it.

Confirmation now (not that it was needed) that the Brexiteers are still singing "La, La, I can't hear you", with the full pay-off to come when the realities of Brexit do finally dawn.

williamglenn

SeanT said:

Quite. I imagine 90% of Remainers think the Govt is doing a bad job on Brexit,

It's hard to imagine a better performance of stonewalling and playing for time than we've seen from May.

ThreeQuidder

Good old bouncy MORI.

Tissue_Price

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Sean, next time you're travelling through Asia, stop off and buy a suit or two in Singapore or HK. Damn nearly as good, at a fraction of the price.

Edit :@MaxPB makes the same point. Saville Row is for those who want to tell everyone they meet that they got their suit from Saville Row!

I do believe that's what SeanT wants to do though!

Just checked, club class to HK is ~£3k.

I fear the thread is about to descend into Tier Point Runs again...

TheScreamingEagles

SeanT said:

Blue_rog said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

How many of those who think the govt are doing a bad job on Brexit, think that because they're annoyed we haven't left yet?

Same as all the Tories that think Corbyn's doing a fantastic job (of leading the Labour Party to electoral oblivion)!

Quite. I imagine 90% of Remainers think the Govt is doing a bad job on Brexit, because they think the job is intrinsically bad and can't be done well. They haven't changed their minds.

The poll movement is much more likely to be Leavers who want the whole thing hurried up, and fear that Brexit might not happen at all.

Incidentally, on that cringeworthy video of TMay being shunned in Brussels, it's interesting to note the instant human reaction (you can see it on Twitter). It's not: Look, this is what we deserve for Brexiting, it's Wow, I feel sorry for Ms May how dare these smelly foreigners be so rude.

I predict this is how Britons will react to a Brexit that gets tough and tricky. We will band together and become defensive, and stubborn, and angry - and more Brexity than ever.

Quite, I agree. The only hope the 48% have is to delay or prevent triggering article 50. Once it's triggered the majority of the country will unite and pull together. It will be a done deal then.

Yes. I reckon the Remainers have about three months to stop Brexit, now.

Tick tock. Buckle up.

Not that I want to stop Brexit, but the window is larger than 3 months.

If we get a crap deal/or no deal at all, and move to WTO, and we see biblically bad news on the economic front because of that, inflation and interest rates surging and Sterling being worse less than the Zimbabwean dollar, then that might stop Brexit.

FF43

Cross breaks caveat and so on, but those Scottish LD figures are a huge advance on the 6% that they have been getting recently.

williamglenn

SeanT said:

Blue_rog said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

How many of those who think the govt are doing a bad job on Brexit, think that because they're annoyed we haven't left yet?

Same as all the Tories that think Corbyn's doing a fantastic job (of leading the Labour Party to electoral oblivion)!

Quite. I imagine 90% of Remainers think the Govt is doing a bad job on Brexit, because they think the job is intrinsically bad and can't be done well. They haven't changed their minds.

The poll movement is much more likely to be Leavers who want the whole thing hurried up, and fear that Brexit might not happen at all.

Incidentally, on that cringeworthy video of TMay being shunned in Brussels, it's interesting to note the instant human reaction (you can see it on Twitter). It's not: Look, this is what we deserve for Brexiting, it's Wow, I feel sorry for Ms May how dare these smelly foreigners be so rude.

I predict this is how Britons will react to a Brexit that gets tough and tricky. We will band together and become defensive, and stubborn, and angry - and more Brexity than ever.

Quite, I agree. The only hope the 48% have is to delay or prevent triggering article 50. Once it's triggered the majority of the country will unite and pull together. It will be a done deal then.

Yes. I reckon the Remainers have about three months to stop Brexit, now.

Tick tock. Buckle up.

If on April 1st, Article 50 remains untriggered, will you think Brexit is fatally wounded?

MaxPB

Tissue_Price said:

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Sean, next time you're travelling through Asia, stop off and buy a suit or two in Singapore or HK. Damn nearly as good, at a fraction of the price.

Edit :@MaxPB makes the same point. Saville Row is for those who want to tell everyone they meet that they got their suit from Saville Row!

I do believe that's what SeanT wants to do though!

Just checked, club class to HK is ~£3k.

I fear the thread is about to descend into Tier Point Runs again...

It's coming to that time of year for me.

Might do the Doha run to top up for gold status next year. After that its Star Alliance.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, we saw this with ICM and YouGov post Richmond the Lib Dems up.

As one of the chaps at Ipsos Mori observed, can they sustain it?

tlg86

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/809379326768644098

My grandfather played in goal for Bolsover Colliery. Mansfield Town came in for him but the colliery wouldn't let him go as they didn't want to lose a good miner.

SimonStClare

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

Quite. I imagine 90% of Remainers think the Govt is doing a bad job on Brexit,

It's hard to imagine a better performance of stonewalling and playing for time than we've seen from May.

Wasn’t aware there has been any delays in TMay’s desired Brexit time table.

Sandpit

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Sean, next time you're travelling through Asia, stop off and buy a suit or two in Singapore or HK. Damn nearly as good, at a fraction of the price.

Edit :@MaxPB makes the same point. Saville Row is for those who want to tell everyone they meet that they got their suit from Saville Row!

I do believe that's what SeanT wants to do though!

Just checked, club class to HK is ~£3k.

Ha, so fly Club Class to Singapore, stay for a week in the Marina Bay Sands, watch the F1 race from the Paddock Club and buy a couple of suits from Mohan's Custom Tailors - and save money over buying the suits on Saville Row!!!

AlastairMeeks

So, just to clarify with our more intense Leavers, is it your view that if and when the Article 50 negotiations start the public's perception of the government's handling of Brexit is going to soar?

Well, it's a view I suppose.

theakes

What is the point of leaving the EU, its just emotion aganist common sense.

Stark_Dawning

Interesting. For all the talk of UKIP replacing Labour, it might end up being the Lib Dems who actually pull it off. Now that Leave is the establishment and Remain the insurgents, this could sit well with the Lib Dem modus operandi of old. Moreover, by humiliating and destroying Cameron, the eurosceptic Tory hard-Right may have unintentionally de-toxified the Coalition years in the minds of erstwhile Lib Dem voters - Dave now being perceived as not such a bad sort after all. I'm sensing a Lib Dem revival.

JonathanD

FF43 said:

Cross breaks caveat and so on, but those Scottish LD figures are a huge advance on the 6% that they have been getting recently.

Part of the reason the Scots Tories have been doing so well up to now was their capture of the centrist and even slightly left of centre Unionist vote. The hard right takeover of the Tory party in England may well put that at risk or force Davidson to differentiate herself further from the national Tory party.

MaxPB

AlastairMeeks said:

So, just to clarify with our more intense Leavers, is it your view that if and when the Article 50 negotiations start the public's perception of the government's handling of Brexit is going to soar?

Well, it's a view I suppose.

I think support for Brexit will soar, but not support for the government handling of it.

MarkHopkins

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

Blue_rog said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

How many of those who think the govt are doing a bad job on Brexit, think that because they're annoyed we haven't left yet?

Same as all the Tories that think Corbyn's doing a fantastic job (of leading the Labour Party to electoral oblivion)!

Quite. I imagine 90% of Remainers think the Govt is doing a bad job on Brexit, because they think the job is intrinsically bad and can't be done well. They haven't changed their minds.

The poll movement is much more likely to be Leavers who want the whole thing hurried up, and fear that Brexit might not happen at all.

Incidentally, on that cringeworthy video of TMay being shunned in Brussels, it's interesting to note the instant human reaction (you can see it on Twitter). It's not: Look, this is what we deserve for Brexiting, it's Wow, I feel sorry for Ms May how dare these smelly foreigners be so rude.

I predict this is how Britons will react to a Brexit that gets tough and tricky. We will band together and become defensive, and stubborn, and angry - and more Brexity than ever.

Quite, I agree. The only hope the 48% have is to delay or prevent triggering article 50. Once it's triggered the majority of the country will unite and pull together. It will be a done deal then.

Yes. I reckon the Remainers have about three months to stop Brexit, now.

Tick tock. Buckle up.

Not that I want to stop Brexit, but the window is larger than 3 months.

If we get a crap deal/or no deal at all, and move to WTO, and we see biblically bad news on the economic front because of that, inflation and interest rates surging and Sterling being worse less than the Zimbabwean dollar, then that might stop Brexit.

I don't see that happening. If there was a suggestion of no/bad deal, and a move to WTO, there would be considerable negative impact on the EU and Euro as well. The idea that they can avoid the blow-back of giving us a crap deal is not realistic. So the pressure will be on both sides to do a deal, which (after considerable bickering) they will.

CarlottaVance

Scott_P said:

SeanT said:

The FT. On Brexit. Really? Was it worth cutting and pasting

Totally worth it.

Confirmation now (not that it was needed) that the Brexiteers are still singing "La, La, I can't hear you", with the full pay-off to come when the realities of Brexit do finally dawn.

The problem, dear chap, is that we were promised catastrophic realities even if we just VOTED to leave - which, with the exception of the pound, Marmite and Lego have failed to do so so far.

Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice shame on me.

AlastairMeeks

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So, just to clarify with our more intense Leavers, is it your view that if and when the Article 50 negotiations start the public's perception of the government's handling of Brexit is going to soar?

Well, it's a view I suppose.

I think support for Brexit will soar, but not support for the government handling of it.

I expect that Britain will become a nastier and more inward-looking country as a consequence. Sadly, far too many Leavers will be delighted by that prospect.

Pulpstar

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So, just to clarify with our more intense Leavers, is it your view that if and when the Article 50 negotiations start the public's perception of the government's handling of Brexit is going to soar?

Well, it's a view I suppose.

I think support for Brexit will soar, but not support for the government handling of it.

I expect that Britain will become a nastier and more inward-looking country as a consequence. Sadly, far too many Leavers will be delighted by that prospect.

Yes, but will the currency crash ?

Scott_P

CarlottaVance said:

The problem, dear chap, is that we were promised catastrophic realities even if we just VOTED to leave -

...and immediately triggered Article 50

Curious how people always forget that part.

kjohnw

Is there any truth to the rumours that 20 -30 Republican Electors are ready to not vote for Trump on Monday? If true is there now a risk that the election could be flipped?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4033674/Harvard-professor-advises-faithless-electors-says-20-Republicans-willing-abandon-Trump.html

Scott_P

Pulpstar said:

Yes, but will the currency crash ?

Even further?

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/809379326768644098

My grandfather played in goal for Bolsover Colliery. Mansfield Town came in for him but the colliery wouldn't let him go as they didn't want to lose a good miner.

Just sent you a vanilla message.

MaxPB

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So, just to clarify with our more intense Leavers, is it your view that if and when the Article 50 negotiations start the public's perception of the government's handling of Brexit is going to soar?

Well, it's a view I suppose.

I think support for Brexit will soar, but not support for the government handling of it.

I expect that Britain will become a nastier and more inward-looking country as a consequence. Sadly, far too many Leavers will be delighted by that prospect.

Inwards looking maybe, but not nastier. I think there will be a new concentration on British interests coming first rather than any kind of collective outlook required by EU membership. That alone might be a relatively liberating experience. The nation has a responsibility to its own people, when you understand that Brexit was a reaction to the state seemingly not living by that ultimate rule, it will all fall into place.

CarlottaVance

Scott_P said:

CarlottaVance said:

The problem, dear chap, is that we were promised catastrophic realities even if we just VOTED to leave -

...and immediately triggered Article 50

Curious how people always forget that part.

No. The Treasury Paper specifically said "before Article 50 was triggered".

Curious how Remoaners try to rewrite that part.

TOPPING

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Sean, next time you're travelling through Asia, stop off and buy a suit or two

Edit :@MaxPB makes the same point. Saville Row is for those who want to tell everyone they meet that they got their suit from Saville Row!

Nah. There is something special about a Savile Row suit. Asia doesn't touch it.

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

Blue_rog said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

How many of those who think the govt are doing a bad job on Brexit, think that because they're annoyed we haven't left yet?

Same as all the Tories that think Corbyn's doing a fantastic job (of leading the Labour Party to electoral oblivion)!

Quite. I imagine 90% of Remainers think the Govt is doing a bad job on Brexit, because they think the job is intrinsically bad and can't be done well. They haven't changed their minds.

The poll movement is much more likely to be Leavers who want the whole thing hurried up, and fear that Brexit might not happen at all.

Incidentally, on that cringeworthy video of TMay being shunned in Brussels, it's interesting to note the instant human reaction (you can see it on Twitter). It's not: Look, this is what we deserve for Brexiting, it's Wow, I feel sorry for Ms May how dare these smelly foreigners be so rude.

I predict this is how Britons will react to a Brexit that gets tough and tricky. We will band together and become defensive, and stubborn, and angry - and more Brexity than ever.

Quite, I agree. The only hope the 48% have is to delay or prevent triggering article 50. Once it's triggered the majority of the country will unite and pull together. It will be a done deal then.

Yes. I reckon the Remainers have about three months to stop Brexit, now.

Tick tock. Buckle up.

Not that I want to stop Brexit, but the window is larger than 3 months.

If we get a crap deal/or no deal at all, and move to WTO, and we see biblically bad news on the economic front because of that, inflation and interest rates surging and Sterling being worse less than the Zimbabwean dollar, then that might stop Brexit.

I still can't see us going back, cap in hand, to join. EEA/EFTA maybe, at a stretch, but the reality is that we have voted to damage ourselves economically (while expecting textbook homo economicus behaviour from the EU).

We will have to live with and make the best of it.

I keep on coming back to the analogy of a Labour government. We will have to make the best of what will be a series of deleterious decisions.

MaxPB

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

Blue_rog said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

How many of those who think the govt are doing a bad job on Brexit, think that because they're annoyed we haven't left yet?

Same as all the Tories that think Corbyn's doing a fantastic job (of leading the Labour Party to electoral oblivion)!

Quite. I imagine 90% of Remainers think the Govt is doing a bad job on Brexit, because they think the job is intrinsically bad and can't be done well. They haven't changed their minds.

The poll movement is much more likely to be Leavers who want the whole thing hurried up, and fear that Brexit might not happen at all.

Incidentally, on that cringeworthy video of TMay being shunned in Brussels, it's interesting to note the instant human reaction (you can see it on Twitter). It's not: Look, this is what we deserve for Brexiting, it's Wow, I feel sorry for Ms May how dare these smelly foreigners be so rude.

I predict this is how Britons will react to a Brexit that gets tough and tricky. We will band together and become defensive, and stubborn, and angry - and more Brexity than ever.

Quite, I agree. The only hope the 48% have is to delay or prevent triggering article 50. Once it's triggered the majority of the country will unite and pull together. It will be a done deal then.

Yes. I reckon the Remainers have about three months to stop Brexit, now.

Tick tock. Buckle up.

If on April 1st, Article 50 remains untriggered, will you think Brexit is fatally wounded?

Of course not. But it will look a little less likely. Personally I always thought May should have waited til late 2017, after the French and German elections...

The problem with that is it puts our leaving date after the EU election.

Scott_P

MaxPB said:

Inwards looking maybe, but not nastier. I think there will be a new concentration on British interests coming first

...by placing tariffs on the export of all Jaguar Land Rover products...

Genius.

TOPPING

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So, just to clarify with our more intense Leavers, is it your view that if and when the Article 50 negotiations start the public's perception of the government's handling of Brexit is going to soar?

Well, it's a view I suppose.

I think support for Brexit will soar, but not support for the government handling of it.

I expect that Britain will become a nastier and more inward-looking country as a consequence. Sadly, far too many Leavers will be delighted by that prospect.

Most have already gone from not wanting to be a part of the EU, to actively wanting it to fail (cf Raab on R4 this morning).

rottenborough

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

Blue_rog said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

How many of those who think the govt are doing a bad job on Brexit, think that because they're annoyed we haven't left yet?

Same as all the Tories that think Corbyn's doing a fantastic job (of leading the Labour Party to electoral oblivion)!

Quite. I imagine 90% of Remainers think the Govt is doing a bad job on Brexit, because they think the job is intrinsically bad and can't be done well. They haven't changed their minds.

The poll movement is much more likely to be Leavers who want the whole thing hurried up, and fear that Brexit might not happen at all.

Incidentally, on that cringeworthy video of TMay being shunned in Brussels, it's interesting to note the instant human reaction (you can see it on Twitter). It's not: Look, this is what we deserve for Brexiting, it's Wow, I feel sorry for Ms May how dare these smelly foreigners be so rude.

I predict this is how Britons will react to a Brexit that gets tough and tricky. We will band together and become defensive, and stubborn, and angry - and more Brexity than ever.

Quite, I agree. The only hope the 48% have is to delay or prevent triggering article 50. Once it's triggered the majority of the country will unite and pull together. It will be a done deal then.

Yes. I reckon the Remainers have about three months to stop Brexit, now.

Tick tock. Buckle up.

If on April 1st, Article 50 remains untriggered, will you think Brexit is fatally wounded?

Of course not. But it will look a little less likely. Personally I always thought May should have waited til late 2017, after the French and German elections...

I agree. There may be no EU left after these two events, plus an Italian bank crisis.

MaxPB

Scott_P said:

MaxPB said:

Inwards looking maybe, but not nastier. I think there will be a new concentration on British interests coming first

...by placing tariffs on the export of all Jaguar Land Rover products...

Genius.

I don't think you understand how tariffs work. Until you do this will end up being a waste of time.

TOPPING

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Sean, next time you're travelling through Asia, stop off and buy a suit or two in Singapore or HK. Damn nearly as good, at a fraction of the price. Mohan's in SG, two jackets and four pairs of trousers for under a grand. Bespoke, not off the peg.

Edit :@MaxPB makes the same point. Saville Row is for those who want to tell everyone they meet that they got their suit from Saville Row!

Of course that's why I want to do it. Just to boast like a vulgar clown - and also to say that, just once, I bought and owned the very best suit possible, from the most famous tailors in the world, even if the price was logically unjustifiable - and nauseatingly high.

It's the same reason I bought a brand new car. I could afford the absurd premium - and it did give me a genuine buzz.

Savile Row suits are the opposite of vulgar.

Only you will know.

What was the saying? A real man has the labels of his clothes on the inside...

williamglenn

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

Blue_rog said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

How many of those who think the govt are doing a bad job on Brexit, think that because they're annoyed we haven't left yet?

Same as all the Tories that think Corbyn's doing a fantastic job (of leading the Labour Party to electoral oblivion)!

Quite. I imagine 90% of Remainers think the Govt is doing a bad job on Brexit, because they think the job is intrinsically bad and can't be done well. They haven't changed their minds.

The poll movement is much more likely to be Leavers who want the whole thing hurried up, and fear that Brexit might not happen at all.

Incidentally, on that cringeworthy video of TMay being shunned in Brussels, it's interesting to note the instant human reaction (you can see it on Twitter). It's not: Look, this is what we deserve for Brexiting, it's Wow, I feel sorry for Ms May how dare these smelly foreigners be so rude.

I predict this is how Britons will react to a Brexit that gets tough and tricky. We will band together and become defensive, and stubborn, and angry - and more Brexity than ever.

Quite, I agree. The only hope the 48% have is to delay or prevent triggering article 50. Once it's triggered the majority of the country will unite and pull together. It will be a done deal then.

Yes. I reckon the Remainers have about three months to stop Brexit, now.

Tick tock. Buckle up.

If on April 1st, Article 50 remains untriggered, will you think Brexit is fatally wounded?

Of course not. But it will look a little less likely. Personally I always thought May should have waited til late 2017, after the French and German elections...

She possibly originally intended to trigger it in the spring, and then call a snap election to get a thumping mandate to go into negotiations in a strong position.

Pulpstar

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So, just to clarify with our more intense Leavers, is it your view that if and when the Article 50 negotiations start the public's perception of the government's handling of Brexit is going to soar?

Well, it's a view I suppose.

I think support for Brexit will soar, but not support for the government handling of it.

I expect that Britain will become a nastier and more inward-looking country as a consequence. Sadly, far too many Leavers will be delighted by that prospect.

Yes, but will the currency crash ?

Obviously from this point !

I can't go back in time and covert all my £ to dollars when it was at 1.5...

potwalloper

Subsamples are a load of rubbish, we are always told.

Unless they fit the Lib Dem narrative

Scott_P

MaxPB said:

I don't think you understand how tariffs work.

Hold that thought...

CarlottaVance

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So, just to clarify with our more intense Leavers, is it your view that if and when the Article 50 negotiations start the public's perception of the government's handling of Brexit is going to soar?

Well, it's a view I suppose.

I think support for Brexit will soar, but not support for the government handling of it.

I expect that Britain will become a nastier and more inward-looking country as a consequence. Sadly, far too many Leavers will be delighted by that prospect.

Inwards looking maybe, but not nastier. I think there will be a new concentration on British interests coming first rather than any kind of collective outlook required by EU membership. That alone might be a relatively liberating experience. The nation has a responsibility to its own people, when you understand that Brexit was a reaction to the state seemingly not living by that ultimate rule, it will all fall into place.

I disagree.

Before the EU we were - and remain - members of the Commonwealth- who here hasn't got relations in the Commonwealth?

Perhaps the Scottish experience is different from the English - but I have relations in Australia, Canada and the US. We haven't been "inward looking" in four hundred years.

MarkHopkins

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Sean, next time you're travelling through Asia, stop off and buy a suit or two in Singapore or HK. Damn nearly as good, at a fraction of the price. Mohan's in SG, two jackets and four pairs of trousers for under a grand. Bespoke, not off the peg.

Edit :@MaxPB makes the same point. Saville Row is for those who want to tell everyone they meet that they got their suit from Saville Row!

Of course that's why I want to do it. Just to boast like a vulgar clown - and also to say that, just once, I bought and owned the very best suit possible, from the most famous tailors in the world, even if the price was logically unjustifiable - and nauseatingly high.

It's the same reason I bought a brand new car. I could afford the absurd premium - and it did give me a genuine buzz.

Savile Row suits are the opposite of vulgar.

Only you will know.

What was the saying? A real man has the labels of his clothes on the inside...

Someone should start a range of clothing called "Brexiteer", will be popular with the heroic, alpha male wannabes.

MaxPB

rottenborough said:

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

Blue_rog said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

How many of those who think the govt are doing a bad job on Brexit, think that because they're annoyed we haven't left yet?

Same as all the Tories that think Corbyn's doing a fantastic job (of leading the Labour Party to electoral oblivion)!

Quite. I imagine 90% of Remainers think the Govt is doing a bad job on Brexit, because they think the job is intrinsically bad and can't be done well. They haven't changed their minds.

The poll movement is much more likely to be Leavers who want the whole thing hurried up, and fear that Brexit might not happen at all.

Incidentally, on that cringeworthy video of TMay being shunned in Brussels, it's interesting to note the instant human reaction (you can see it on Twitter). It's not: Look, this is what we deserve for Brexiting, it's Wow, I feel sorry for Ms May how dare these smelly foreigners be so rude.

I predict this is how Britons will react to a Brexit that gets tough and tricky. We will band together and become defensive, and stubborn, and angry - and more Brexity than ever.

Quite, I agree. The only hope the 48% have is to delay or prevent triggering article 50. Once it's triggered the majority of the country will unite and pull together. It will be a done deal then.

Yes. I reckon the Remainers have about three months to stop Brexit, now.

Tick tock. Buckle up.

If on April 1st, Article 50 remains untriggered, will you think Brexit is fatally wounded?

Of course not. But it will look a little less likely. Personally I always thought May should have waited til late 2017, after the French and German elections...

I agree. There may be no EU left after these two events, plus an Italian bank crisis.

Well UniCredit is close to securing it's future with an investor led bail out recapitalisation. It's BMPS that will cause a lot of hurt, I don't see why any private investor would front €5bn for a company that needs €20bn and is worth less than €1bn on paper.

FF43

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

Blue_rog said:

SeanT said:

Quite. I imagine 90% of Remainers think the Govt is doing a bad job on Brexit, because they think the job is intrinsically bad and can't be done well. They haven't changed their minds.

The poll movement is much more likely to be Leavers who want the whole thing hurried up, and fear that Brexit might not happen at all.

Incidentally, on that cringeworthy video of TMay being shunned in Brussels, it's interesting to note the instant human reaction (you can see it on Twitter). It's not: Look, this is what we deserve for Brexiting, it's Wow, I feel sorry for Ms May how dare these smelly foreigners be so rude.

I predict this is how Britons will react to a Brexit that gets tough and tricky. We will band together and become defensive, and stubborn, and angry - and more Brexity than ever.

Quite, I agree. The only hope the 48% have is to delay or prevent triggering article 50. Once it's triggered the majority of the country will unite and pull together. It will be a done deal then.

Yes. I reckon the Remainers have about three months to stop Brexit, now.

Tick tock. Buckle up.

Not that I want to stop Brexit, but the window is larger than 3 months.

If we get a crap deal/or no deal at all, and move to WTO, and we see biblically bad news on the economic front because of that, inflation and interest rates surging and Sterling being worse less than the Zimbabwean dollar, then that might stop Brexit.

I don't see that happening. If there was a suggestion of no/bad deal, and a move to WTO, there would be considerable negative impact on the EU and Euro as well. The idea that they can avoid the blow-back of giving us a crap deal is not realistic. So the pressure will be on both sides to do a deal, which (after considerable bickering) they will.

There definitely will be a deal. The question is, what? Our preferred choice according to the government and opinion polls is a deep "Canada-style" preferential trade agreement. They have gone for the most difficult and time-consuming option possible. PTAs are negotiated in the context of each side's Most Favoured Nation schedules. PTAs add to your MFNs. We don't know what our MFN schedules are yet. They will need to be worked out at the WTO on unanimity, with the heavy involvement of the EU again. The PTA itself will take a decade or so following on from that. None of this is workable in the A50 timsescale.

EDIT. And most third parties will want to see what deal the UK signs with the EU before starting their own negotiations. We're talking decades.

williamglenn

TOPPING said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So, just to clarify with our more intense Leavers, is it your view that if and when the Article 50 negotiations start the public's perception of the government's handling of Brexit is going to soar?

Well, it's a view I suppose.

I think support for Brexit will soar, but not support for the government handling of it.

I expect that Britain will become a nastier and more inward-looking country as a consequence. Sadly, far too many Leavers will be delighted by that prospect.

Most have already gone from not wanting to be a part of the EU, to actively wanting it to fail (cf Raab on R4 this morning).

And this is why they will win the battle but lose the war. The EU is not going to fail, and by adopting a UKIP-lite position they out themselves as fanatical ideologues who never prosper for long in the British system.

2017 will be full of bitter reversals for people who've adopted this world-view.

JonathanD

CarlottaVance said:

Scott_P said:

CarlottaVance said:

The problem, dear chap, is that we were promised catastrophic realities even if we just VOTED to leave -

...and immediately triggered Article 50

Curious how people always forget that part.

No. The Treasury Paper specifically said "before Article 50 was triggered"

Curious how Remoaners try to rewrite that part.

The Treasury paper is here - https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf

Can you point out where "before Article 50 was triggered" is?

In Section 1.4.2 the assumption is made that Article 50 would be triggered straight away and the reason the Treasury Analysis was for only 2 years was that was the expected length of time withdrawal would take.

The other big difference is that rather than sticking to the UKs economic plan, the borrowing forecast has been ripped up and the magic money tree borrowed from to help boost short term growth. Its not surprising therefore that growth is better than predicted.

TOPPING

MarkHopkins said:

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Sean, next time you're travelling through Asia, stop off and buy a suit or two in Singapore or HK. Damn nearly as good, at a fraction of the price. Mohan's in SG, two jackets and four pairs of trousers for under a grand. Bespoke, not off the peg.

Edit :@MaxPB makes the same point. Saville Row is for those who want to tell everyone they meet that they got their suit from Saville Row!

Of course that's why I want to do it. Just to boast like a vulgar clown - and also to say that, just once, I bought and owned the very best suit possible, from the most famous tailors in the world, even if the price was logically unjustifiable - and nauseatingly high.

It's the same reason I bought a brand new car. I could afford the absurd premium - and it did give me a genuine buzz.

Savile Row suits are the opposite of vulgar.

Only you will know.

What was the saying? A real man has the labels of his clothes on the inside...

Someone should start a range of clothing called "Brexiteer", will be popular with the heroic, alpha male wannabes.

http://www.stagstuff.co.uk/images/product-zoom/28862cbe-eec3-4096-bd10-6b7b08d1656e/opposuits--union-jack-suit.jpg

MaxPB

Have to say I was wrong about EUR/USD it has absolute smashed through the floor of $1.05 today and it is even approaching £0.83 as well which is another milestone. The UniCredit bounce got smashed by the Fed.

Sandpit

Scott_P said:

MaxPB said:

Inwards looking maybe, but not nastier. I think there will be a new concentration on British interests coming first

...by placing tariffs on the export of all Jaguar Land Rover products...

Genius.

They can't raise tariffs higher than 10%, unless they also raise them for all the Japanese and American cars.

More likely that we will do a trade deal with India, so that Jaguars and Land Rovers end up 25% cheaper than the German competition in a country with a billion people and a growing middle class. Will keep the JLR's Indian shareholders happy too.

MaxPB

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

MaxPB said:

Inwards looking maybe, but not nastier. I think there will be a new concentration on British interests coming first

...by placing tariffs on the export of all Jaguar Land Rover products...

Genius.

They can't raise tariffs higher than 10%, unless they also raise them for all the Japanese and American cars.

More likely that we will do a trade deal with India, so that Jaguars and Land Rovers end up 25% cheaper than the German competition in a country with a billion people and a growing middle class. Will keep the JLR's Indian shareholders happy too.

Well in addition to the fact that tariffs are set by the importing nation, not the exporting nation. It's a basic lack of understanding by Scott'n'Paste.

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/809379326768644098

My grandfather played in goal for Bolsover Colliery. Mansfield Town came in for him but the colliery wouldn't let him go as they didn't want to lose a good miner.

Just sent you a vanilla message.

Just replied.

Sandpit

MaxPB said:

Have to say I was wrong about EUR/USD it has absolute smashed through the floor of $1.05 today and it is even approaching £0.83 as well which is another milestone. The UniCredit bounce got smashed by the Fed.

Euro is about to break $1.04

MaxPB

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

Have to say I was wrong about EUR/USD it has absolute smashed through the floor of $1.05 today and it is even approaching £0.83 as well which is another milestone. The UniCredit bounce got smashed by the Fed.

Euro is about to break $1.04

Yes, it already has for a few minutes. Could be a full blown Euro crisis if the ECB holds to its current plan for QE.

Pulpstar

MaxPB said:

Have to say I was wrong about EUR/USD it has absolute smashed through the floor of $1.05 today and it is even approaching £0.83 as well which is another milestone. The UniCredit bounce got smashed by the Fed.

Trump pulling together all those billionaires (And quite alot of them almost certain Democrats) indicates that the last place he is going to apply ideology is on the jobs front. I expect the red republican meat will be handed out in SCOTUS appointments, social policy etc.

He might not deliver, but he is off to a fantastic start. Trump/Yellen is looking like a very formidable combination for the dollar right now.

Theuniondivvie

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Sean, next time you're travelling through Asia, stop off and buy a suit or two in Singapore or HK. Damn nearly as good, at a fraction of the price. Mohan's in SG, two jackets and four pairs of trousers for under a grand. Bespoke, not off the peg.

Edit :@MaxPB makes the same point. Saville Row is for those who want to tell everyone they meet that they got their suit from Saville Row!

Of course that's why I want to do it. Just to boast like a vulgar clown - and also to say that, just once, I bought and owned the very best suit possible, from the most famous tailors in the world, even if the price was logically unjustifiable - and nauseatingly high.

It's the same reason I bought a brand new car. I could afford the absurd premium - and it did give me a genuine buzz.

Savile Row suits are the opposite of vulgar.

Only you will know.

What was the saying? A real man has the labels of his clothes on the inside...

I have occasionally seen idiots leaving on those little labels that designers sometimes have tacked to their jackets' sleeves, presumably so everyone knows that they can afford Boss, Prada etc. I imagine proper tailors would never be so vulgarly self advertising to have those labels in the first place.

felix

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

Have to say I was wrong about EUR/USD it has absolute smashed through the floor of $1.05 today and it is even approaching £0.83 as well which is another milestone. The UniCredit bounce got smashed by the Fed.

Euro is about to break $1.04

Yes, it already has for a few minutes. Could be a full blown Euro crisis if the ECB holds to its current plan for QE.

Interestingly the £ has done quite well against the € over the last few weeks - back up to almost £1: €1.20. Great for my pension transfers! Whether it lasts I'm unsure. The problem for the doom mongerers is the danger of crying wolf too often. If people don 't see armageddon soon they'll beginto wonder if all the fake news is acctually on Sky and the BBC rather than from the Russian hackers.

Re: the LD revival I'm very sceptical - not sure their former supporters in the SW are all that keen on another referendum.

MaxPB

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

Have to say I was wrong about EUR/USD it has absolute smashed through the floor of $1.05 today and it is even approaching £0.83 as well which is another milestone. The UniCredit bounce got smashed by the Fed.

Trump pulling together all those billionaires (And quite alot of them almost certain Democrats) indicates that the last place he is going to apply ideology is on the jobs front. I expect the red republican meat will be handed out in SCOTUS appointments, social policy etc.

He might not deliver, but he is off to a fantastic start. Trump/Yellen is looking like a very formidable combination for the dollar right now.

Part of that will have been him laying down the law to tech companies who fire Americans and hire H1-B workers from India to replace them. I think he really doesn't get on with that idea at all, he'd prefer a proper outsourcing of the services than importing of foreign labour.

He will throw a lot of red meat in terms of race and gender to white Americans. Feminists will take a back seat for 8 years, progressive LGBT types will take a back seat and so will minority interests. Minorities will be expected to adjust to the majority way of life rather than the majority accepting the minority way of life being different. It will all be achieved under the stars and stripes.

TOPPING

Theuniondivvie said:

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Sean, next time you're travelling through Asia, stop off and buy a suit or two in Singapore or HK. Damn nearly as good, at a fraction of the price. Mohan's in SG, two jackets and four pairs of trousers for under a grand. Bespoke, not off the peg.

Edit :@MaxPB makes the same point. Saville Row is for those who want to tell everyone they meet that they got their suit from Saville Row!

Of course that's why I want to do it. Just to boast like a vulgar clown - and also to say that, just once, I bought and owned the very best suit possible, from the most famous tailors in the world, even if the price was logically unjustifiable - and nauseatingly high.

It's the same reason I bought a brand new car. I could afford the absurd premium - and it did give me a genuine buzz.

Savile Row suits are the opposite of vulgar.

Only you will know.

What was the saying? A real man has the labels of his clothes on the inside...

I have occasionally seen idiots leaving on those little labels that designers sometimes have tacked to their jackets' sleeves, presumably so everyone knows that they can afford Boss, Prada etc. I imagine proper tailors would never be so vulgarly self advertising to have those labels in the first place.

Well of course there are some ticks that you can spot (eg. Huntsman has a single button on its jackets), and each tailor can spot their own style, but yes, it is a no label environment.

MaxPB

Theuniondivvie said:

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Sean, next time you're travelling through Asia, stop off and buy a suit or two in Singapore or HK. Damn nearly as good, at a fraction of the price. Mohan's in SG, two jackets and four pairs of trousers for under a grand. Bespoke, not off the peg.

Edit :@MaxPB makes the same point. Saville Row is for those who want to tell everyone they meet that they got their suit from Saville Row!

Of course that's why I want to do it. Just to boast like a vulgar clown - and also to say that, just once, I bought and owned the very best suit possible, from the most famous tailors in the world, even if the price was logically unjustifiable - and nauseatingly high.

It's the same reason I bought a brand new car. I could afford the absurd premium - and it did give me a genuine buzz.

Savile Row suits are the opposite of vulgar.

Only you will know.

What was the saying? A real man has the labels of his clothes on the inside...

I have occasionally seen idiots leaving on those little labels that designers sometimes have tacked to their jackets' sleeves, presumably so everyone knows that they can afford Boss, Prada etc. I imagine proper tailors would never be so vulgarly self advertising to have those labels in the first place.

I find that the people who do that are usually in sales and marketing!

CarlottaVance

felix said:

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

Have to say I was wrong about EUR/USD it has absolute smashed through the floor of $1.05 today and it is even approaching £0.83 as well which is another milestone. The UniCredit bounce got smashed by the Fed.

Euro is about to break $1.04

Yes, it already has for a few minutes. Could be a full blown Euro crisis if the ECB holds to its current plan for QE.

Interestingly the £ has done quite well against the € over the last few weeks - back up to almost £1: €1.20. Great for my pension transfers!

Read an article today on the Euro:$ - it was "To Parity and Beyond". Mind you it did say it was unlikely to get below 1.04 in the short term.

MaxPB

felix said:

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

Have to say I was wrong about EUR/USD it has absolute smashed through the floor of $1.05 today and it is even approaching £0.83 as well which is another milestone. The UniCredit bounce got smashed by the Fed.

Euro is about to break $1.04

Yes, it already has for a few minutes. Could be a full blown Euro crisis if the ECB holds to its current plan for QE.

Interestingly the £ has done quite well against the € over the last few weeks - back up to almost £1: €1.20. Great for my pension transfers! Whether it lasts I'm unsure. The problem for the doom mongerers is the danger of crying wolf too often. If people don 't see armageddon soon they'll beginto wonder if all the fake news is acctually on Sky and the BBC rather than from the Russian hackers.

Re: the LD revival I'm very sceptical - not sure their former supporters in the SW are all that keen on another referendum.

I think fair value is going to be $/€1.25 in the end, with the Euro and USD approaching parity. Greece also seems to be flaring up again, they've gone and pissed off their last ally (the IMF) for no apparent reason when it is the Eurogroup who have imposed the harsh austerity. If Italy can't save BMPS privately then it could precipitate their exit from the Euro (though not the EU) as hitting ordinary savers is the quickest way to get them to vote for insurgencies.

Tissue_Price

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

Have to say I was wrong about EUR/USD it has absolute smashed through the floor of $1.05 today and it is even approaching £0.83 as well which is another milestone. The UniCredit bounce got smashed by the Fed.

Trump pulling together all those billionaires (And quite alot of them almost certain Democrats) indicates that the last place he is going to apply ideology is on the jobs front. I expect the red republican meat will be handed out in SCOTUS appointments, social policy etc.

He might not deliver, but he is off to a fantastic start. Trump/Yellen is looking like a very formidable combination for the dollar right now.

Tillerson is a very imaginative pick. This story about how he made the choice is very enlightening.

MarkSenior

felix said:

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

Have to say I was wrong about EUR/USD it has absolute smashed through the floor of $1.05 today and it is even approaching £0.83 as well which is another milestone. The UniCredit bounce got smashed by the Fed.

Euro is about to break $1.04

Yes, it already has for a few minutes. Could be a full blown Euro crisis if the ECB holds to its current plan for QE.

Interestingly the £ has done quite well against the € over the last few weeks - back up to almost £1: €1.20. Great for my pension transfers! Whether it lasts I'm unsure. The problem for the doom mongerers is the danger of crying wolf too often. If people don 't see armageddon soon they'll beginto wonder if all the fake news is acctually on Sky and the BBC rather than from the Russian hackers.

Re: the LD revival I'm very sceptical - not sure their former supporters in the SW are all that keen on another referendum.

Three council by elections in the South West today one in Taunton , 2 in Teignbridge Devon , 1 or 2 Lib Dem gains likely .

david_herdson

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Don't go to Savile Row then. How much are you paying for the label and how much for the suit? Of course, it might be that you *want* to pay for the label, even though you're the only one who'll see it, and that you simply want the experience of have a top-quality suit made - not just the ownership of it afterwards but the fittings and the rest.

All the same, I'd bet you could have one made of pretty similar quality elsewhere in the country to a similar quality for a fraction the price - or even elsewhere in London.

Sandpit

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

Have to say I was wrong about EUR/USD it has absolute smashed through the floor of $1.05 today and it is even approaching £0.83 as well which is another milestone. The UniCredit bounce got smashed by the Fed.

Trump pulling together all those billionaires (And quite alot of them almost certain Democrats) indicates that the last place he is going to apply ideology is on the jobs front. I expect the red republican meat will be handed out in SCOTUS appointments, social policy etc.

He might not deliver, but he is off to a fantastic start. Trump/Yellen is looking like a very formidable combination for the dollar right now.

Part of that will have been him laying down the law to tech companies who fire Americans and hire H1-B workers from India to replace them. I think he really doesn't get on with that idea at all, he'd prefer a proper outsourcing of the services than importing of foreign labour.

He will throw a lot of red meat in terms of race and gender to white Americans. Feminists will take a back seat for 8 years, progressive LGBT types will take a back seat and so will minority interests. Minorities will be expected to adjust to the majority way of life rather than the majority accepting the minority way of life being different. It will all be achieved under the stars and stripes.

That sounds like a pretty good summary. Hopefully he will take a serious look at H1B abuse, that visa was supposed to be for super-skilled foreigners, not entry-level outsourcing roles a la Disney. A $150k minimum salary should sort it out.

nunu

SeanT:"The culture wars, however, really will see him fight for conservative white America"

There will be a record number of low skilled imigrants after his first term, big business demands it and he will give them whatever they want.

Scott_P

@VLubev: Just saw #RogueOne

An inspiring film which teaches us that Corbynism can triumph over Fascism and fear.

#VoteCorbyn

felix

MarkSenior said:

felix said:

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

Have to say I was wrong about EUR/USD it has absolute smashed through the floor of $1.05 today and it is even approaching £0.83 as well which is another milestone. The UniCredit bounce got smashed by the Fed.

Euro is about to break $1.04

Yes, it already has for a few minutes. Could be a full blown Euro crisis if the ECB holds to its current plan for QE.

Interestingly the £ has done quite well against the € over the last few weeks - back up to almost £1: €1.20. Great for my pension transfers! Whether it lasts I'm unsure. The problem for the doom mongerers is the danger of crying wolf too often. If people don 't see armageddon soon they'll beginto wonder if all the fake news is acctually on Sky and the BBC rather than from the Russian hackers.

Re: the LD revival I'm very sceptical - not sure their former supporters in the SW are all that keen on another referendum.

Three council by elections in the South West today one in Taunton , 2 in Teignbridge Devon , 1 or 2 Lib Dem gains likely .

Still waiting for your apology about labelling Tory/UKIP voters as probable alzheimer sufferers.

TOPPING

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Don't go to Savile Row then. How much are you paying for the label and how much for the suit? Of course, it might be that you *want* to pay for the label, even though you're the only one who'll see it, and that you simply want the experience of have a top-quality suit made - not just the ownership of it afterwards but the fittings and the rest.

All the same, I'd bet you could have one made of pretty similar quality elsewhere in the country to a similar quality for a fraction the price - or even elsewhere in London.

No you can't.

HYUFD

There is a real prospect Trump loses the House in 2018 in my view as his supporters will be less motivated while Democrats will be really motivated. So the U.S. may have divided government again pretty soon

MaxPB

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

Have to say I was wrong about EUR/USD it has absolute smashed through the floor of $1.05 today and it is even approaching £0.83 as well which is another milestone. The UniCredit bounce got smashed by the Fed.

Trump pulling together all those billionaires (And quite alot of them almost certain Democrats) indicates that the last place he is going to apply ideology is on the jobs front. I expect the red republican meat will be handed out in SCOTUS appointments, social policy etc.

He might not deliver, but he is off to a fantastic start. Trump/Yellen is looking like a very formidable combination for the dollar right now.

Part of that will have been him laying down the law to tech companies who fire Americans and hire H1-B workers from India to replace them. I think he really doesn't get on with that idea at all, he'd prefer a proper outsourcing of the services than importing of foreign labour.

He will throw a lot of red meat in terms of race and gender to white Americans. Feminists will take a back seat for 8 years, progressive LGBT types will take a back seat and so will minority interests. Minorities will be expected to adjust to the majority way of life rather than the majority accepting the minority way of life being different. It will all be achieved under the stars and stripes.

That sounds like a pretty good summary. Hopefully he will take a serious look at H1B abuse, that visa was supposed to be for super-skilled foreigners, not entry-level outsourcing roles a la Disney. A $150k minimum salary should sort it out.

There are two classes of visa, I think you're describing the O1 visa, rather than the H1 which is just for any old graduate.

HYUFD

KJ No as even that would not be enough to overturn the EC

MaxPB

nunu said:

SeanT:"The culture wars, however, really will see him fight for conservative white America"

There will be a record number of low skilled imigrants after his first term, big business demands it and he will give them whatever they want.

I think this meeting was basically telling them that importing low value labour is not going to be possible when he becomes POTUS. At least that's what I think.

isam

SeanT said:

Thanks for all the advice on suit buying. I fear I might be close to bottling it again. I mean, £5,000 for a SUIT. I might just get a bespoke hanky.

Thom Sweeney

RobD

Scott_P said:

@VLubev: Just saw #RogueOne

An inspiring film which teaches us that Corbynism can triumph over Fascism and fear.

#VoteCorbyn

In what election is Corbyn fighting against fascism.

What is Corbynism anyway?

isam

AlastairMeeks said:

So, just to clarify with our more intense Leavers, is it your view that if and when the Article 50 negotiations start the public's perception of the government's handling of Brexit is going to soar?

Well, it's a view I suppose.

Intense leavers are just glad we left, & probably pleasantly surprised so many people agreed with them.

I doubt many thought it would be a swift or easy process. But the vote was won, that's the important thing

Scott_P

MaxPB said:

There are two classes of visa, I think you're describing the O1 visa, rather than the H1 which is just for any old graduate.

No

H1 is skilled (degree level)

O is for Luvvies

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/employment/temporary.html

MaxPB

Scott_P said:

MaxPB said:

There are two classes of visa, I think you're describing the O1 visa, rather than the H1 which is just for any old graduate.

No

H1 is skilled (degree level)

O is for Luvvies

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/employment/temporary.html

My cousin is a technical director at a tech company and he went on an O visa. Not just for luvvies.

RobD

Scott_P said:

MaxPB said:

There are two classes of visa, I think you're describing the O1 visa, rather than the H1 which is just for any old graduate.

No

H1 is skilled (degree level)

O is for Luvvies

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/employment/temporary.html

No, O is for Luvvies and other exceptional people of the sciences/education/business:

For persons with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, athletics, or extraordinary recognized achievements in the motion picture and television fields, demonstrated by sustained national or international acclaim, to work in their field of expertise. Includes persons providing essential services in support of the above individual.

In fact, must luvvies would probably go under a P visa, since they aren't usually exceptional

williamglenn

isam said:

Intense leavers are just glad we left

Is this some kind of NLP I'm not getting? We haven't left anything yet.