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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-Election Results both local and Westminster: December 1st 2

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  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    But HOW do you stop Brexit? Practically? I honestly can't see a way.

    Brexit will collapse into a tangled pile of its own contradictions as more red lines are crossed and the cries of Betrayal drown out the "traitors"

    It's an epic fuck up, you voted for. It requires nothing more than time to fail utterly and completely on its own terms, and for people like you to be baying for Boris

    The 3 Brexiteers are already signalling freedom of movement and EU payments. That's "not Brexit" for many.
    I voted for soft Brexit. EFTA or EEA. At the moment it looks like this is what will happen, even if it is called something else. Economic logic will prevail. We leave in the least painful way possible (for us and for them).

    I'm happy. You're the one bleating and moaning.

    PS: where is this "epic fuck up"? It's all in the minds of Remoaners. The economy is growing, inflation is subdued, we have record employment, the £ is now gently rising again. Apocalypse When?
    I also think we will leave with the softest of Brexits. Probably EEA, fudge on free movement, continued contributions, extended transitional period to satisfy business and minimise budget penalties.

    It will be almost indistinguishable from remaining in the EU except we won't be at the table making the rules and we will be able to whisper the magic words "we have left the EU". It raises the question - why bother? I think this will be asked with increasing frequency.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    The economy is growing, inflation is subdued, we have record employment, the £ is now gently rising again. Apocalypse When?

    The economy is growing - we haven't left yet

    inflation is subdued - it really isn't

    we have record employment - while we still have freedom of movement

    the £ is now gently rising again - while we are still in the EU

    So all the good stuff you are gloating about are due to our continued EU membership

    Apocalypse When? - When we leave.
    The most doomsday predictions for LEAVE say we will lose 4% of GDP by 2030. That's two years' growth.

    It's tiny. After some short term pain, we won't even notice it. And that's presuming there is no upside. Calm down you hysterical twit.

    Just like other PB Leavers, for you a 4% diminution in GDP is just one of several supper party conversations.

    For those less financially secure, it is real life. It is jobs and quality of life and so forth. Nothing that you would understand these days.
    If the 4% loss comes from financial and legal services then it's you, me and Mr Meeks!
    Haha..er...gulp....

    At least you'll be well out of it by then.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061

    Mr. Jessop, my understanding it that Ricciardo's contract is rather more watertight than Vettel's was when he left for Ferrari. Also, Newey's designing next year's car and tends to be good at aero stuff, so now might be a bad time to leave Red Bull.

    Yep. Red Bull's one of the three teams you'd want to be in. But they're also very fickle with their drivers, and Verstappen's now their main man.

    Oh, and it sounds as if Rosberg may have decided to retire in 2016 after the US GP last year, yet he signed a contract extension this year.
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    "I have already personally suffered and experienced the pain of Brexit when I had to pay £12 for a €12 glass of vintage champagne at Bordeaux airport, on my way back from my recent stay at the Chateau de la Treyne."

    The pound is nearly up to €1.20 now, you got ripped off on the exchange rate.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    PlatoSaid said:

    I find these numbers hard to believe. Nearer less than 5% IME

    Pew
    Who's vegetarian or vegan? 9% of Americans, 12% of 18-29 year olds, 15% of Liberal Democrats https://t.co/NbSh0vHdVL https://t.co/gKMFsgfsmw

    Lots of vegetarians are part-time, e.g. My wife who occasionally eats red meat to keep her protein levels up.
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    So HOW do you do it? We know you want to subvert the vote, but HOW?

    The how gets easier if the Supreme Court rules that the devolution settlement, as constituted, means that Hollyrood needs to approve Article 50. Then it becomes a Mexican standoff where neither side can act without causing irreparable harm to themselves.

    If not, then you simply tie it up with strings in Westminster until the Tories are totally committed to the softest of Brexits, and wait for political pressure from the hard Brexiteers to destroy the very thing they wanted.
    If the courts seriously block it May will go to the people in a Brexit election, and she will win on a manifesto to force through the changes. So we still Leave.
    May can't force an early election. She doesn't have the votes required by the FTPA.
    She has the votes to repeal it though
    Not in the Lords she doesn't.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    If the courts seriously block it May will go to the people in a Brexit election, and she will win on a manifesto to force through the changes. So we still Leave.

    No

    Not sure she would win a Brexit GE anyway, but she would need a manifesto that spelled out things like 'single market, in or out?'
    lol. She's 16 points ahead in the polls. Who is she gonna lose to?? Corbyn? He wants to Leave as well.
    16 points ahead yet in the 5 council by elections yesterday the Conservative vote share was DOWN 7 % . In Richmond of course it was down 100% . Stop believing opinion polls unless they are based on Lib Dem canvas figures .
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    PlatoSaid said:

    I find these numbers hard to believe. Nearer less than 5% IME

    Pew
    Who's vegetarian or vegan? 9% of Americans, 12% of 18-29 year olds, 15% of Liberal Democrats https://t.co/NbSh0vHdVL https://t.co/gKMFsgfsmw

    Lots of vegetarians are part-time, e.g. My wife who occasionally eats red meat to keep her protein levels up.
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    So HOW do you do it? We know you want to subvert the vote, but HOW?

    The how gets easier if the Supreme Court rules that the devolution settlement, as constituted, means that Hollyrood needs to approve Article 50. Then it becomes a Mexican standoff where neither side can act without causing irreparable harm to themselves.

    If not, then you simply tie it up with strings in Westminster until the Tories are totally committed to the softest of Brexits, and wait for political pressure from the hard Brexiteers to destroy the very thing they wanted.
    If the courts seriously block it May will go to the people in a Brexit election, and she will win on a manifesto to force through the changes. So we still Leave.
    May can't force an early election. She doesn't have the votes required by the FTPA.
    She has the votes to repeal it though
    Not in the Lords she doesn't.
    The Lords wouldn't dare.

    Casus belli for reform and or the creation of 200 new working Tory peers.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618

    MaxPB said:

    I think Riccardo will want the Mercedes seat. He's being muscled out of RBR by Verstapen and Mercedes will want an exciting driver to replace boring Rosberg.

    I think that's right. Ricci would love a Merc drive. Even better, he'd be an exciting Mrecedes driver.

    However don't look past Pascal Werhlein, especially after my post below where I said I thought Mercedes *wouldn't* go for him... :)

    Another thing to note: Hamilton will have some say in who drives alongside him. Maybe not a big say, and certainly not a casting vote. But it will be a say.
    Yeah, Wehrlein will be the favourite for the spot, but tbh his first season hasn't set the world alight and he's not got good experience in open wheel racing.

    As Mr Dancer had pointed out Ricciardo might not want to leave because of Newest, but if the management are pushing for Verstapen to be the leader he may not have any choice. He doesn't want to become another Webber. I'd love to see him at Mercedes as well, probably the most exciting driver on the grid, even more than Hamilton IMO.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    dogbasket said:

    "I have already personally suffered and experienced the pain of Brexit when I had to pay £12 for a €12 glass of vintage champagne at Bordeaux airport, on my way back from my recent stay at the Chateau de la Treyne."

    The pound is nearly up to €1.20 now, you got ripped off on the exchange rate.

    ...Get yourself a Post office credit card.. my experience is that A) there are NO transaction taxes and B) the exchange rate is VERY CLOSE to the spot rate.. Real value for money imho.
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    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    If the courts seriously block it May will go to the people in a Brexit election, and she will win on a manifesto to force through the changes. So we still Leave.

    No

    Not sure she would win a Brexit GE anyway, but she would need a manifesto that spelled out things like 'single market, in or out?'
    lol. She's 16 points ahead in the polls. Who is she gonna lose to?? Corbyn? He wants to Leave as well.
    16 points ahead yet in the 5 council by elections yesterday the Conservative vote share was DOWN 7 % . In Richmond of course it was down 100% . Stop believing opinion polls unless they are based on Lib Dem canvas figures .
    Yeah those canvass returns in 2015 that said the Lib Dems were on for 35 seats?
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    F1: just checking the thread.

    Alonso would be a very exciting alternative. However, for a team that's had increasing inter-driver tension, putting together Alonso and Hamilton (again) would be a brave decision.

    As suggested by me earlier on this thread - Alonso is the blindingly obvious top pick and great value at 20/1 to win next season's Drivers' Championship. If Lewis doesn't like it .... tough cookie.
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    dogbasket said:

    "I have already personally suffered and experienced the pain of Brexit when I had to pay £12 for a €12 glass of vintage champagne at Bordeaux airport, on my way back from my recent stay at the Chateau de la Treyne."

    The pound is nearly up to €1.20 now, you got ripped off on the exchange rate.

    ...Get yourself a Post office credit card.. my experience is that A) there are NO transaction taxes and B) the exchange rate is VERY CLOSE to the spot rate.. Real value for money imho.
    Halifax Capital card is very good for foreign travel.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    PlatoSaid said:

    I find these numbers hard to believe. Nearer less than 5% IME

    Pew
    Who's vegetarian or vegan? 9% of Americans, 12% of 18-29 year olds, 15% of Liberal Democrats https://t.co/NbSh0vHdVL https://t.co/gKMFsgfsmw

    Lots of vegetarians are part-time, e.g. My wife who occasionally eats red meat to keep her protein levels up.
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    So HOW do you do it? We know you want to subvert the vote, but HOW?

    The how gets easier if the Supreme Court rules that the devolution settlement, as constituted, means that Hollyrood needs to approve Article 50. Then it becomes a Mexican standoff where neither side can act without causing irreparable harm to themselves.

    If not, then you simply tie it up with strings in Westminster until the Tories are totally committed to the softest of Brexits, and wait for political pressure from the hard Brexiteers to destroy the very thing they wanted.
    If the courts seriously block it May will go to the people in a Brexit election, and she will win on a manifesto to force through the changes. So we still Leave.
    May can't force an early election. She doesn't have the votes required by the FTPA.
    She has the votes to repeal it though
    Not in the Lords she doesn't.
    The Lords wouldn't dare.

    Casus belli for reform and or the creation of 200 new working Tory peers.
    If the Lords aren't going to stop a clear case of the executive manipulating the constitution for their own benefit then what is the point of them? Also it would restore a Royal Perpgative to the executive which goes against precedent.

    The Queen may well refuse to be politicised by appointing hundreds of new peers as well.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    The economy is growing, inflation is subdued, we have record employment, the £ is now gently rising again. Apocalypse When?

    The economy is growing - we haven't left yet

    inflation is subdued - it really isn't

    we have record employment - while we still have freedom of movement

    the £ is now gently rising again - while we are still in the EU

    So all the good stuff you are gloating about are due to our continued EU membership

    Apocalypse When? - When we leave.
    The most doomsday predictions for LEAVE say we will lose 4% of GDP by 2030. That's two years' growth.

    It's tiny. After some short term pain, we won't even notice it. And that's presuming there is no upside. Calm down you hysterical twit.

    Just like other PB Leavers, for you a 4% diminution in GDP is just one of several supper party conversations.

    For those less financially secure, it is real life. It is jobs and quality of life and so forth. Nothing that you would understand these days.
    What nonsense. And actually quite insulting. What do you know of my life???

    I have already personally suffered and experienced the pain of Brexit when I had to pay £12 for a €12 glass of vintage champagne at Bordeaux airport, on my way back from my recent stay at the Chateau de la Treyne.
    Had they run out of gateaux?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618

    PlatoSaid said:

    I find these numbers hard to believe. Nearer less than 5% IME

    Pew
    Who's vegetarian or vegan? 9% of Americans, 12% of 18-29 year olds, 15% of Liberal Democrats https://t.co/NbSh0vHdVL https://t.co/gKMFsgfsmw

    Lots of vegetarians are part-time, e.g. My wife who occasionally eats red meat to keep her protein levels up.
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    So HOW do you do it? We know you want to subvert the vote, but HOW?

    The how gets easier if the Supreme Court rules that the devolution settlement, as constituted, means that Hollyrood needs to approve Article 50. Then it becomes a Mexican standoff where neither side can act without causing irreparable harm to themselves.

    If not, then you simply tie it up with strings in Westminster until the Tories are totally committed to the softest of Brexits, and wait for political pressure from the hard Brexiteers to destroy the very thing they wanted.
    If the courts seriously block it May will go to the people in a Brexit election, and she will win on a manifesto to force through the changes. So we still Leave.
    May can't force an early election. She doesn't have the votes required by the FTPA.
    She has the votes to repeal it though
    Not in the Lords she doesn't.
    The Lords wouldn't dare.

    Casus belli for reform and or the creation of 200 new working Tory peers.
    If the Lords aren't going to stop a clear case of the executive manipulating the constitution for their own benefit then what is the point of them? Also it would restore a Royal Perpgative to the executive which goes against precedent.

    The Queen may well refuse to be politicised by appointing hundreds of new peers as well.
    She hasn't in the past.
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    Andrew said:

    I wonder how long before we reach Labour/UKIP crossover.

    Wonder no more, I doubt you’ll see it in your life time. :lol:
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    Mr. Putney, the advantage of that bet (which I was already looking at) is that it might either come off or be hedgeable even if Alonso stays at McLaren.
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    Interesting, that YouGov poll has more people saying Leaving the EU was the wrong decision than saying it was the right decision
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    PClipp said:

    dogbasket said:

    "I was covered on the LDs so made a tiny fiver but thought Zac would squeeze it and so lost out a decent profit on that." This was just another case of needing to beware of the polls. The fundamentals overwhelming favoured the Lib Dems.

    In all fairness, the polls made public by the Lib Dems were, as it turns out, spot on.

    The trouble was all the dismal jonnies on PB who moaned on and on about expectations management. They were - and are - the ones to beware of.
    Isn’t that a tad discourteous to the site proprietor?
    I dont`think so, Mr StClare. OGH did not mention the term "expectation management" - that was used by Tory-inclined posters, who though the Lib Dems ought to have gone in for it.

    OGH`s line was that the Lib Dems were sticking their necks out a bit in showing such confidence in their own polling.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,687

    PlatoSaid said:

    I find these numbers hard to believe. Nearer less than 5% IME

    Pew
    Who's vegetarian or vegan? 9% of Americans, 12% of 18-29 year olds, 15% of Liberal Democrats https://t.co/NbSh0vHdVL https://t.co/gKMFsgfsmw

    Lots of vegetarians are part-time, e.g. My wife who occasionally eats red meat to keep her protein levels up.
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    So HOW do you do it? We know you want to subvert the vote, but HOW?

    The how gets easier if the Supreme Court rules that the devolution settlement, as constituted, means that Hollyrood needs to approve Article 50. Then it becomes a Mexican standoff where neither side can act without causing irreparable harm to themselves.

    If not, then you simply tie it up with strings in Westminster until the Tories are totally committed to the softest of Brexits, and wait for political pressure from the hard Brexiteers to destroy the very thing they wanted.
    If the courts seriously block it May will go to the people in a Brexit election, and she will win on a manifesto to force through the changes. So we still Leave.
    May can't force an early election. She doesn't have the votes required by the FTPA.
    She has the votes to repeal it though
    Not in the Lords
    The Life Term Parliament Act is more their style.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    dogbasket said:

    "I have already personally suffered and experienced the pain of Brexit when I had to pay £12 for a €12 glass of vintage champagne at Bordeaux airport, on my way back from my recent stay at the Chateau de la Treyne."

    The pound is nearly up to €1.20 now, you got ripped off on the exchange rate.

    ...Get yourself a Post office credit card.. my experience is that A) there are NO transaction taxes and B) the exchange rate is VERY CLOSE to the spot rate.. Real value for money imho.

    dogbasket said:

    "I have already personally suffered and experienced the pain of Brexit when I had to pay £12 for a €12 glass of vintage champagne at Bordeaux airport, on my way back from my recent stay at the Chateau de la Treyne."

    The pound is nearly up to €1.20 now, you got ripped off on the exchange rate.

    ...Get yourself a Post office credit card.. my experience is that A) there are NO transaction taxes and B) the exchange rate is VERY CLOSE to the spot rate.. Real value for money imho.
    Halifax Clarity is even better, you can also do cash withdrawals in foreign currency at the same exchange rate (there is a very small interest cost but you can avoid this by paying off the withdrawal immediately through online banking)
  • Options
    Andrew said:

    I wonder how long before we reach Labour/UKIP crossover.

    You reckon Labour will go below 12%?
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    PlatoSaid said:

    I find these numbers hard to believe. Nearer less than 5% IME

    Pew
    Who's vegetarian or vegan? 9% of Americans, 12% of 18-29 year olds, 15% of Liberal Democrats https://t.co/NbSh0vHdVL https://t.co/gKMFsgfsmw

    Lots of vegetarians are part-time, e.g. My wife who occasionally eats red meat to keep her protein levels up.
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    So HOW do you do it? We know you want to subvert the vote, but HOW?

    The how gets easier if the Supreme Court rules that the devolution settlement, as constituted, means that Hollyrood needs to approve Article 50. Then it becomes a Mexican standoff where neither side can act without causing irreparable harm to themselves.

    If not, then you simply tie it up with strings in Westminster until the Tories are totally committed to the softest of Brexits, and wait for political pressure from the hard Brexiteers to destroy the very thing they wanted.
    If the courts seriously block it May will go to the people in a Brexit election, and she will win on a manifesto to force through the changes. So we still Leave.
    May can't force an early election. She doesn't have the votes required by the FTPA.
    She has the votes to repeal it though
    Not in the Lords she doesn't.
    The Lords wouldn't dare.

    Casus belli for reform and or the creation of 200 new working Tory peers.
    If the Lords aren't going to stop a clear case of the executive manipulating the constitution for their own benefit then what is the point of them? Also it would restore a Royal Perpgative to the executive which goes against precedent.

    The Queen may well refuse to be politicised by appointing hundreds of new peers as well.
    Nah, the new act will just say for a general election a simple majority of MPs needs to vote for it, or for a government to lose a vote of confidence
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited December 2016
    MaxPB said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I find these numbers hard to believe. Nearer less than 5% IME

    Pew
    Who's vegetarian or vegan? 9% of Americans, 12% of 18-29 year olds, 15% of Liberal Democrats https://t.co/NbSh0vHdVL https://t.co/gKMFsgfsmw

    Lots of vegetarians are part-time, e.g. My wife who occasionally eats red meat to keep her protein levels up.
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    So HOW do you do it? We know you want to subvert the vote, but HOW?

    The how gets easier if the Supreme Court rules that the devolution settlement, as constituted, means that Hollyrood needs to approve Article 50. Then it becomes a Mexican standoff where neither side can act without causing irreparable harm to themselves.

    If not, then you simply tie it up with strings in Westminster until the Tories are totally committed to the softest of Brexits, and wait for political pressure from the hard Brexiteers to destroy the very thing they wanted.
    If the courts seriously block it May will go to the people in a Brexit election, and she will win on a manifesto to force through the changes. So we still Leave.
    May can't force an early election. She doesn't have the votes required by the FTPA.
    She has the votes to repeal it though
    Not in the Lords she doesn't.
    The Lords wouldn't dare.

    Casus belli for reform and or the creation of 200 new working Tory peers.
    If the Lords aren't going to stop a clear case of the executive manipulating the constitution for their own benefit then what is the point of them? Also it would restore a Royal Perpgative to the executive which goes against precedent.

    The Queen may well refuse to be politicised by appointing hundreds of new peers as well.
    She hasn't in the past.
    When in the Queen's reign (or any other monarch for that matter) have 200 new peers suddenly been appointed to the HoL?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    edited December 2016
    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    dogbasket said:

    "I was covered on the LDs so made a tiny fiver but thought Zac would squeeze it and so lost out a decent profit on that." This was just another case of needing to beware of the polls. The fundamentals overwhelming favoured the Lib Dems.

    In all fairness, the polls made public by the Lib Dems were, as it turns out, spot on.

    The trouble was all the dismal jonnies on PB who moaned on and on about expectations management. They were - and are - the ones to beware of.
    Isn’t that a tad discourteous to the site proprietor?
    I dont`think so, Mr StClare. OGH did not mention the term "expectation management" - that was used by Tory-inclined posters, who though the Lib Dems ought to have gone in for it.

    OGH`s line was that the Lib Dems were sticking their necks out a bit in showing such confidence in their own polling.
    Yes he did. This is what Mike wrote

    So overall party campaign chiefs will have a reasonably good idea where they stand at the moment. But overall I don’t attach much importance to this data release. It could be part of a big expectation management effort.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/11/27/party-by-election-vote-projections-should-be-treated-with-a-massive-pinch-of-salt/
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    F1: bit more rambling - from a racing perspective I'd much prefer to see Alonso get the gig. But I'm not sure it'll happen. Wehrlein seems likely but there's also a suggestion he might go to Williams, and Bottas go to Mercedes.

    The problem with that is that Williams then have a newcomer (Stroll) and a chap who's been in F1 for one year.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061

    F1: just checking the thread.

    Alonso would be a very exciting alternative. However, for a team that's had increasing inter-driver tension, putting together Alonso and Hamilton (again) would be a brave decision.

    As suggested by me earlier on this thread - Alonso is the blindingly obvious top pick and great value at 20/1 to win next season's Drivers' Championship. If Lewis doesn't like it .... tough cookie.
    " If Lewis doesn't like it .... tough cookie."

    I really, really doubt that Mercedes would take that attitude. It would just be storing up problems for the future.

    He's just a driver, but he's also massively important for Mercedes given the imminent rule changes.
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    NEW THREAD

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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574

    If you supported leave and live near Sleaford and N H ,get your're backsides into the area and help win for the leave candidate,don't leave it to chance.

    We all know the lib dems will flood the area with people but will the lib dems use the remain cause in a leave area ?

    "the Leave candidate"??? I believe there are 9 of those standing. And 1 Remainer.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    The economy is growing, inflation is subdued, we have record employment, the £ is now gently rising again. Apocalypse When?

    The economy is growing - we haven't left yet

    inflation is subdued - it really isn't

    we have record employment - while we still have freedom of movement

    the £ is now gently rising again - while we are still in the EU

    So all the good stuff you are gloating about are due to our continued EU membership

    Apocalypse When? - When we leave.
    The most doomsday predictions for LEAVE say we will lose 4% of GDP by 2030. That's two years' growth.

    It's tiny. After some short term pain, we won't even notice it. And that's presuming there is no upside. Calm down you hysterical twit.

    Just like other PB Leavers, for you a 4% diminution in GDP is just one of several supper party conversations.

    For those less financially secure, it is real life. It is jobs and quality of life and so forth. Nothing that you would understand these days.
    If the 4% loss comes from financial and legal services then it's you, me and Mr Meeks!
    Although you are going to be in Zurich...
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    You reckon Labour will go below 12%?

    Corbyn isn't capable of much, but he might achieve that.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    The economy is growing, inflation is subdued, we have record employment, the £ is now gently rising again. Apocalypse When?

    The economy is growing - we haven't left yet

    inflation is subdued - it really isn't

    we have record employment - while we still have freedom of movement

    the £ is now gently rising again - while we are still in the EU

    So all the good stuff you are gloating about are due to our continued EU membership

    Apocalypse When? - When we leave.
    The most doomsday predictions for LEAVE say we will lose 4% of GDP by 2030. That's two years' growth.

    It's tiny. After some short term pain, we won't even notice it. And that's presuming there is no upside. Calm down you hysterical twit.

    Just like other PB Leavers, for you a 4% diminution in GDP is just one of several supper party conversations.

    For those less financially secure, it is real life. It is jobs and quality of life and so forth. Nothing that you would understand these days.
    If the 4% loss comes from financial and legal services then it's you, me and Mr Meeks!
    Although you are going to be in Zurich...
    Who knows what will happen in 2030! :D
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,404
    NEW THREAD
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/804712202976526337

    Quick reading of the breakdown of figures suggests they broadly follow other recent polls:

    Labour ahead amongst under 40s. Tories ahead amongst over 40s. However, of course, there are more voters in the latter category, they are more likely to vote, and the Tory lead amongst pensioners is enormous - 54:17 in this poll, with Labour almost at parity with Ukip.

    Tories have a 28pt lead in the South outside London. This is very nearly as big as the lead held by the SNP over the second party in Scotland. The difference: the combined South-East, South-West and Eastern regions contain almost four times the number of voters and therefore return four times as many MPs as Scotland does. A catastrophe for Labour.

    The Tories have a 13pt lead over Labour in the Midlands, and the two are within margin of error in London and Scotland. This poll does give Labour a 5pt lead in the North - but it also puts Ukip on 18% in the Midlands and North.

    The Lib Dems are on 13% in London, in a survey taken (of course) before the Richmond Park by-election. This may suggest a path back to relevance as a party for well-to-do left libs dismayed at Corbyn's lack of zeal on the EU, but only time will tell of course.

    Corbyn's ratings in a head-to-head with May continue to be abysmal, despite the fact that most respondents think the Government is handling Brexit badly. The SNP continues to look unassailable.
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    MaxPB said:

    Lots of vegetarians are part-time, e.g. My wife who occasionally eats red meat to keep her protein levels up.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    So HOW do you do it? We know you want to subvert the vote, but HOW?

    The how gets easier if the Supreme Court rules that the devolution settlement, as constituted, means that Hollyrood needs to approve Article 50. Then it becomes a Mexican standoff where neither side can act without causing irreparable harm to themselves.

    If not, then you simply tie it up with strings in Westminster until the Tories are totally committed to the softest of Brexits, and wait for political pressure from the hard Brexiteers to destroy the very thing they wanted.
    If the courts seriously block it May will go to the people in a Brexit election, and she will win on a manifesto to force through the changes. So we still Leave.
    May can't force an early election. She doesn't have the votes required by the FTPA.
    She has the votes to repeal it though
    Not in the Lords she doesn't.
    The Lords wouldn't dare.

    Casus belli for reform and or the creation of 200 new working Tory peers.
    If the Lords aren't going to stop a clear case of the executive manipulating the constitution for their own benefit then what is the point of them? Also it would restore a Royal Perpgative to the executive which goes against precedent.

    The Queen may well refuse to be politicised by appointing hundreds of new peers as well.
    She hasn't in the past.
    She'd be perfectly entitled to refuse, if it was solely to repeal the FTPA. Remember that the peers would be there for the rest of their lives, so we'd end up with either a permanent Tory majority (again) or a balancing up afterwards, resulting in 1200+ peers.

    The government doesn't have a mandate to repeal the FTPA so the Salisbury Convention doesn't apply, and the whole point of the FTPA was to prevent the government from gaming the system to its own benefit, so their lordships can hardly be blamed for upholding the law as passed by parliament. It's not in fact a bad piece of legislation.

    Were the Lords to block a Brexit bill, that would be a different matter and then, yes, the threat of ramming it through with mass new creations would have to be an option, simply because of the time constraints. But to prevent the implementation of the public's vote in a referendum is a rather different matter.
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    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    If the courts seriously block it May will go to the people in a Brexit election, and she will win on a manifesto to force through the changes. So we still Leave.

    No

    Not sure she would win a Brexit GE anyway, but she would need a manifesto that spelled out things like 'single market, in or out?'
    lol. She's 16 points ahead in the polls. Who is she gonna lose to?? Corbyn? He wants to Leave as well.
    16 points ahead yet in the 5 council by elections yesterday the Conservative vote share was DOWN 7 % . In Richmond of course it was down 100% . Stop believing opinion polls unless they are based on Lib Dem canvas figures .
    Local by-elections (and other interim elections) can be misleading. The Tories made bucket-loads of gains during Blair's first term, and not only because of bounce-back from 1993-6: the Conservatives generally polled ahead of Labour, and won the 1999 Euros comfortably. Come the big one of course, Labour waltzed home again.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    We joined the EU on a bunch of lies (no loss of sovereignty!), it is a fine and noble irony that we left the EU on a bunch of lies.

    And we're definitely Leaving, because, for a start, there is no feasible political route to Remaining.

    Sorry, guys.

    Hold up, didn't you declare Brexit would die if Lib Dems won Richmond Park ?
    No, I specifically said Hard Brexit was considerably less likely if the Lib Dems won. And so it is.

    But Hard Brexit was unlikely anyway. All the signals now point to Soft Brexit. Perhaps VERY soft.
    As I said weeks ago , this lot will negotiate a crap deal which gives us less and costs us more. We will be out but paying extra to get looking in the window at all the goodies. They are F******* useless as well as a bunch of Tory liars.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    The economy is growing, inflation is subdued, we have record employment, the £ is now gently rising again. Apocalypse When?

    The economy is growing - we haven't left yet

    inflation is subdued - it really isn't

    we have record employment - while we still have freedom of movement

    the £ is now gently rising again - while we are still in the EU

    So all the good stuff you are gloating about are due to our continued EU membership

    Apocalypse When? - When we leave.
    The most doomsday predictions for LEAVE say we will lose 4% of GDP by 2030. That's two years' growth.

    It's tiny. After some short term pain, we won't even notice it. And that's presuming there is no upside. Calm down you hysterical twit.

    Just like other PB Leavers, for you a 4% diminution in GDP is just one of several supper party conversations.

    For those less financially secure, it is real life. It is jobs and quality of life and so forth. Nothing that you would understand these days.
    If the 4% loss comes from financial and legal services then it's you, me and Mr Meeks!
    All stinking rich and will not even notice 4%
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    If the courts seriously block it May will go to the people in a Brexit election, and she will win on a manifesto to force through the changes. So we still Leave.

    No

    Not sure she would win a Brexit GE anyway, but she would need a manifesto that spelled out things like 'single market, in or out?'
    lol. She's 16 points ahead in the polls. Who is she gonna lose to?? Corbyn? He wants to Leave as well.
    16 points ahead yet in the 5 council by elections yesterday the Conservative vote share was DOWN 7 % . In Richmond of course it was down 100% . Stop believing opinion polls unless they are based on Lib Dem canvas figures .
    Local by-elections (and other interim elections) can be misleading. The Tories made bucket-loads of gains during Blair's first term, and not only because of bounce-back from 1993-6: the Conservatives generally polled ahead of Labour, and won the 1999 Euros comfortably. Come the big one of course, Labour waltzed home again.
    Very rarely were the Tories ahead of Labour in the polls during Blair's first term! I am sure it was limited to the short period of the Lorry Drivers Dispute.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MrsB said:

    If you supported leave and live near Sleaford and N H ,get your're backsides into the area and help win for the leave candidate,don't leave it to chance.

    We all know the lib dems will flood the area with people but will the lib dems use the remain cause in a leave area ?

    "the Leave candidate"??? I believe there are 9 of those standing. And 1 Remainer.
    Well the best one at winning,so the Tory it must be.
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    Lots of vegetarians are part-time, e.g. My wife who occasionally eats red meat to keep her protein levels up.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    So HOW do you do it? We know you want to subvert the vote, but HOW?

    The how gets easier if the Supreme Court rules that the devolution settlement, as constituted, means that Hollyrood needs to approve Article 50. Then it becomes a Mexican standoff where neither side can act without causing irreparable harm to themselves.

    If not, then you simply tie it up with strings in Westminster until the Tories are totally committed to the softest of Brexits, and wait for political pressure from the hard Brexiteers to destroy the very thing they wanted.
    If the courts seriously block it May will go to the people in a Brexit election, and she will win on a manifesto to force through the changes. So we still Leave.
    May can't force an early election. She doesn't have the votes required by the FTPA.
    She can. If Labour won't go along with a vote in the Commons, she needs to No Confidence her own government. It's a little risky and would take some explaining to the public but no other government could be formed so a dissolution would automatically follow two weeks later.
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    justin124 said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    If the courts seriously block it May will go to the people in a Brexit election, and she will win on a manifesto to force through the changes. So we still Leave.

    No

    Not sure she would win a Brexit GE anyway, but she would need a manifesto that spelled out things like 'single market, in or out?'
    lol. She's 16 points ahead in the polls. Who is she gonna lose to?? Corbyn? He wants to Leave as well.
    16 points ahead yet in the 5 council by elections yesterday the Conservative vote share was DOWN 7 % . In Richmond of course it was down 100% . Stop believing opinion polls unless they are based on Lib Dem canvas figures .
    Local by-elections (and other interim elections) can be misleading. The Tories made bucket-loads of gains during Blair's first term, and not only because of bounce-back from 1993-6: the Conservatives generally polled ahead of Labour, and won the 1999 Euros comfortably. Come the big one of course, Labour waltzed home again.
    Very rarely were the Tories ahead of Labour in the polls during Blair's first term! I am sure it was limited to the short period of the Lorry Drivers Dispute.
    Correct, and they were a good guide to the 2001 election. But local government results told a different story, which is one reason why we shouldn't focus too much on them. They're useful but only as one of a range of data sources.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    Lots of vegetarians are part-time, e.g. My wife who occasionally eats red meat to keep her protein levels up.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    So HOW do you do it? We know you want to subvert the vote, but HOW?

    The how gets easier if the Supreme Court rules that the devolution settlement, as constituted, means that Hollyrood needs to approve Article 50. Then it becomes a Mexican standoff where neither side can act without causing irreparable harm to themselves.

    If not, then you simply tie it up with strings in Westminster until the Tories are totally committed to the softest of Brexits, and wait for political pressure from the hard Brexiteers to destroy the very thing they wanted.
    If the courts seriously block it May will go to the people in a Brexit election, and she will win on a manifesto to force through the changes. So we still Leave.
    May can't force an early election. She doesn't have the votes required by the FTPA.
    She can. If Labour won't go along with a vote in the Commons, she needs to No Confidence her own government. It's a little risky and would take some explaining to the public but no other government could be formed so a dissolution would automatically follow two weeks later.
    I don't think a government no-confidencing themselves is a realistic scenario.
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