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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay moves to negative ratings in Scotland while fewer Scots n

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  • It's just as well that vegans don't tend to be militarist. The Indian mutiny was sparked by very similar concerns to those expressed about the new £5 note:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_Indian_Rebellion_of_1857#The_Enfield_Rifle

    Yes, but this is the UK.
    Whatever happened to "when in Rome, do as the Romans do"
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Polar bears taking the whole white supremacy too literally?
    Gonna go out on a limb and say the polar bear population in Alabama isn't quite large enough to swing the result ;)
    Alabama, Alaska, it's all the same.
    Oh I see! I had assumed it was a joke I just didn't get.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721
    TGOHF said:

    There was a long list of remainers (and leavers) on here who claimed Brexit would ensure Sindy.

    Unsurprisingly they were very very wrong.

    The genius has spoken , come out McTernan.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    Scott_P said:

    Its rather curious that only British banknotes appear to be affected - out of the many countries that use film......either cock up at the British end, or lots & lots of central banks are praying that their vegans don't notice......

    English.

    Scottish plastic notes not affected
    They should spread a rumour that Scottish banknotes have single malt in them. It's a security measure. If you suck the £5 note you should find a smokey, peaty note. The £20 is more Glenmorangie.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Dixie said:

    Just watched Zac on DP. He's long winded in public. Quite a bore.

    I have a quite irrational dislike of Zac.
    Handsome and wealthy, what is there to dislike?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Polar bears taking the whole white supremacy too literally?
    Gonna go out on a limb and say the polar bear population in Alabama isn't quite large enough to swing the result ;)
    Alabama, Alaska, it's all the same.
    Oh I see! I had assumed it was a joke I just didn't get.
    Ahem. That's exactly what it was, an example of an extremely sophisticated wit.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721
    glw said:

    By positing it as 'the Uk or the EU' the SNP have focussed people's minds......not to their advantage....

    We don't want to be run by London, we want to be run by Brussels, that is a tough sell. And the economics is even more bonkers.
    another nutter, who forgets the last 40, and next 40 the way it is going, Brussels run the UK. Turnip.
  • tpfkar said:

    Liberal Democrats in Richmond Park are predicting they will narrowly snatch the west London seat from Zac Goldsmith, after a campaigning blitz in which the party claimed activists spoke to more than 30,000 voters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/30/lib-dems-eye-victory-over-zac-goldsmith-richmond-park?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Well, they would say that.....
    No - it's a very risky message. If the LDs are already winning, they don't need my vote. The message of being a couple of % behind is safer.

    Having said that, my LD source is bullish - there was a sense a while back that polling day would come too soon, but not any more. Real question is whether the tactical votes promised from ex-Labour supporters who don't like Corbyn / Brexit will come off. If they sit on their hands, Zac will squeak home.
    If they cannot win back Richmond then where can they gain something they once held?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721
    Scott_P said:
    They still would not put her out if she was on fire.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Speaking of bank notes - hopefully not vegans

    AFP
    #BREAKING Zimbabwe police fire tear gas at protest against new bank notes: AFP
  • rcs1000 said:

    Dixie said:

    Just watched Zac on DP. He's long winded in public. Quite a bore.

    I have a quite irrational dislike of Zac.
    Handsome and wealthy, what is there to dislike?
    In a spouse or in an MP?!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721
    TGOHF said:

    Typically and tragic-comically this drop in support for Sindy comes as SLab inches towards supporting Independence.

    Would bring tears of laughter to a glass eye (not Gordon's..)

    Yes that 0.5% on one poll is a massive blow l tell you a massive blow.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769

    tpfkar said:

    Liberal Democrats in Richmond Park are predicting they will narrowly snatch the west London seat from Zac Goldsmith, after a campaigning blitz in which the party claimed activists spoke to more than 30,000 voters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/30/lib-dems-eye-victory-over-zac-goldsmith-richmond-park?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Well, they would say that.....
    No - it's a very risky message. If the LDs are already winning, they don't need my vote. The message of being a couple of % behind is safer.

    Having said that, my LD source is bullish - there was a sense a while back that polling day would come too soon, but not any more. Real question is whether the tactical votes promised from ex-Labour supporters who don't like Corbyn / Brexit will come off. If they sit on their hands, Zac will squeak home.
    If they cannot win back Richmond then where can they gain something they once held?
    Much easier to regain something they lost in 2015 rather than way back in 2010. The PB brains trust identified half a dozen possibilities.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721
    Scott_P said:

    The SNP care about Scottish independence, end of story. They care about the EU because it makes achieving that (via referendum) much easier - less of a leap in the dark. Selling proper independence is much harder.

    The SNP just hate the English. The EU are not English.

    https://twitter.com/104qoeoaeiey9ju/status/803886127337897984
    Scared to put your own name on it Scott
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    malcolmg said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    You need some serious counting lessons
    Considering all the distractions, the Yes vote is holding up very well. It wouldn't take much of an opportunity to swing it, such as an outburst of English nationalism from a bungled Brexit that ignores Scotland.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721
    Dromedary said:

    Scott_P said:

    The SNP just hate the English. The EU are not English.

    Correct.

    Many people underestimate the SNP's cultiness and xenophobia and the infantile chip-on-the-shoulder "true believer" mentality that it plays to.

    I have heard Scottish nationalists declare that Scottish people didn't get a vote in the EUref because they weren't asked whether they wanted to stay in the EU. They seem to have forgotten that only an independent country can belong to the EU and the Scottish people recently rejected independence.

    Try telling an independence supporter that

    * what they are saying is that it's more important for Scotland to be in a single market (freedom of movement sense included) with Germany, Poland and Romania than with England

    * it is impossible for an independent country to be in a single market with two countries that aren't in a single market with each other

    (this gets harder to recognise the more someone has been shouting that the NO result in the EUref means there should be another indyref, because they might have to accept how mentally drugged they were not to notice)

    * an independent Scotland would have no "right" to be in the EU, and that isn't the fault of the English

    * an independent Scotland would have no "right" to a high credit rating

    * an independent Scotland would have no "right" to be in a single market with England, and it won't be in one if Scotland is in the EU and rUK is outside the EU and the single market - and that means customs posts on the border. And no, that's not "scaremongering". That's the truth.

    * England or rUK or E+W would not have to give an independent Scotland everything it wants in negotiations.

    * Considering the cons as well as the pros of what you want is what an intelligent person does. It is revoltingly ugly to consider such a person to be a "race traitor".
    That is just Little Englander bile, you should be ashamed of yourself.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 942
    Lib Dems seem increasingly confident. To win they have to get their vore out otherwise the postals will see Goldsmith home. Lots of seats they lost have much smaller Con majorities than Richmond.
    What I want to know is win or lose will Goldsmith pay for this totally unnecessary election.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721
    Dromedary said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    I think the Scots have easily worked out which 'Union' is more important - the SNP really have stuffed it.......

    And whether or not you would support it, if Scotland is still part of the UK do you think it would be relalistically possible for Scotland to remain part of the EU after the rest of the UK leaves?

    Possible: 22
    Not Possible: 62

    By positing it as 'the Uk or the EU' the SNP have focussed people's minds......not to their advantage....
    What's the pro/anti-EU split in answers?
    Voted in EU Ref: Remain/Leave

    Possible: 27 / 10
    Not Possible: 59 / 81

    So even Pro EU voters think its not possible - by a 2:1 margin....
    They're right it's not possible, but that doesn't mean people won't choose independence with a chance of EU membership against staying in the British union outside of the EU. It's about xenophobic national pride, not logic.
    Bollox , you fannies thinking you have a claue about Scotland is breathtaking. Stick to your xenophobia on EU and immigrants.
  • Mr. G, Little Englander? You're more reasonable than that. You don't want to be mistaken for David Cameron, do you?
  • Scott_P said:
    Pretty thin gruel even by Guido's standards. Almost everyone attending a funeral has to cancel plans to be somewhere else. The police would ask questions if you pencilled the date in a year in advance.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721
    GIN1138 said:

    Will the next change of government (maybe ten years in the future) in Scotland be SNP to Conservative?

    GIN, Only if the only remaining residents are sheep.
  • I think I know "Martin, Edinburgh". The Martin, Edinburgh I know is a prolific writer to newspapers and this matches his views.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155

    malcolmg said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    You need some serious counting lessons
    Considering all the distractions, the Yes vote is holding up very well. It wouldn't take much of an opportunity to swing it, such as an outburst of English nationalism from a bungled Brexit that ignores Scotland.
    Wasn't a leave vote supposed to swing it though?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721

    malcolmg said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    You need some serious counting lessons
    Considering all the distractions, the Yes vote is holding up very well. It wouldn't take much of an opportunity to swing it, such as an outburst of English nationalism from a bungled Brexit that ignores Scotland.
    If only it was down to listening to the PB frothers , tey are so repulsive it would be 99% yes.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721

    Mr. G, Little Englander? You're more reasonable than that. You don't want to be mistaken for David Cameron, do you?

    Not whilst still breathing MD.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    theakes said:

    Lib Dems seem increasingly confident. To win they have to get their vore out otherwise the postals will see Goldsmith home. Lots of seats they lost have much smaller Con majorities than Richmond.
    What I want to know is win or lose will Goldsmith pay for this totally unnecessary election.

    Of course not. It cost £250k. He doesn't deal with piddling small change.
  • Betfair seems to have settled Michigan at last (apologies if already mentioned or if this seems like aftertiming).
  • Non-vegan banknotes around the world:

    https://www.innoviasecurity.com/worldwide-use-of-guardian/
  • I just refreshed the page and got redirected to the Brit Method. Not sure if anything can be done to stop that (whether it's an ad that redirects, and can be opted out of) but it happened once before a few months ago and it's displeasing.

    For those unaware, do avoid going along with it. It's some financial dodginess or other.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    A good excuse to bring back the paper notes.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    RobD said:

    A good excuse to bring back the paper notes.
    Why? We've just beefed up security.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Jonathan said:

    RobD said:

    A good excuse to bring back the paper notes.
    Why? We've just beefed up security.
    Your coat, sir.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769

    I just refreshed the page and got redirected to the Brit Method. Not sure if anything can be done to stop that (whether it's an ad that redirects, and can be opted out of) but it happened once before a few months ago and it's displeasing.

    For those unaware, do avoid going along with it. It's some financial dodginess or other.

    Dave Gorman did a great skit on it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/803967344712253441

    Surely it has given them a convenient mechanism to stop the headbangers demanding A50 be declared immediately?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Surely it has given them a convenient mechanism to stop the headbangers demanding A50 be declared immediately?

    The headbangers have not stopped.

    Peter Bone introduced a PMB today to trigger it
  • philiph said:

    Some interesting facts and figures. IMHO we will start to see major drop in minimum wage jobs in the 5-10 year timeframe.

    http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/economics/item/24699-mcdonald-s-response-to-15-minimum-wage-automation-in-every-store

    No we won't.
    The minimum or living wage acts like a magnet that will attract more and more jobs to be paid at the lowest (or close to the lowest) legal rate. It sets a floor that will become the norm for many jobs that are currently paid well over the minimum.
    Not if immigration is radically curbed for those jobs. If the supply side drops then firms will have to pay more. In a given year circa 1/4 to 1/3 of new job entrants are migrants, most at the minimum wage level. For example if the rules for non-EU workers applied to EU workers then >80% of EU workers would not be eleigible to work here.
    PS I favour a work permit system rather than quotas.
    "Firms will have to pay more " only if ( a) the jobs can't be offshored ( b) the company can still make a profit on higher wages costs. ( c) higher wage rates don't tip the balance towards automation or reduced number of labourers. ( d ) their product isn't too effected by the reduction in demand from reduced immigration. ( e ) we have sufficient indigenous skilled workers to replace the immigrants ( f) in this case " skilled " includes will to do the job due to cultural stigmas. ( g ) we can't import the good/service more cheaply.

    Now they'll be lots of jobs where those don't apply but plenty where these do. The Lower Immigration = Higher Wages equation has always been simplistic b***ocks.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/803967344712253441

    The A50 delay is hardly the government's fault.

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Jonathan said:

    RobD said:

    A good excuse to bring back the paper notes.
    Why? We've just beefed up security.
    :smiley:
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Happy St Andrews day to our PB scottish posters.
  • RobD said:

    A good excuse to bring back the paper notes.
    I much prefer the plastic ones - after using them in Australia - you can wash them and dn't end up with a soggy mess.....
  • Josias and others, what do you make of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7EYQLOlwDM
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Surely it has given them a convenient mechanism to stop the headbangers demanding A50 be declared immediately?

    The headbangers have not stopped.

    Peter Bone introduced a PMB today to trigger it
    Which has zero chance of becoming law. The government's hand are conveniently tied until the outcome of the case.
  • Mr. Jonathan, seen some Goodish bits, but not that one. Find such things [the scam, not Gorman] bloody irritating.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155

    RobD said:

    A good excuse to bring back the paper notes.
    I much prefer the plastic ones - after using them in Australia - you can wash them and dn't end up with a soggy mess.....
    They feel crap, and are smaller. Meh!
  • I think Davidson is the real roadblock to #indyref2 not the hypothetical polls on the actual question. She'd successfully frame it as a populist revolt against an SNP establishment who wouldn't listen.

    Given how much they put on in the last campaign I don't think YES would be too bothered about starting on 44%.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Scott_P said:
    However, Momentum is still on board.
  • The A50 delay is entirely the government's fault. They could have had a three line bill through months ago. The Prerogative case has helped them enormously as it's covered there desire for a delay. It was May who turned " early new year " into " end of March ". They were desperate for planning time and the case gave it to them.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Oh, and I should have said: Greetings from sunny Italy!
  • You CANNOT do that to the English language.
  • YellowSubmarine, some jobs are just not worth having in a country. Jobs where for example the pay is low and the % filled by migrants is high and where the country's social benefits and resources (health, education etc) which is consumed by those workers, outweighs the taxes that those jobs generate.
  • Extraordinarily bad expectations management from the Lib Dems to call Richmond Park as a win. Not want soft switchers or reluctant voters want to here on a cold December eve of poll. If they've won I needn't bother need I ? And if they do win calling it reduces the impact. They now look like tits if they don't win.

    It's an utterly inexplicable move unless they think they won by 10% to 15% so the 2% margin is expectations management itsself. Even then it's a terrible risk.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,920
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    :lol: - In the great scheme of things it's no great shakes, but it’s the little things like this that make one question Corbyn’s suitability for PM.
    People often say the wrong thing, but think they are saying something different. This is on the Guardian live blog:

    May says the IMF says this will be the fastest growing advanced economy in the world. Unemployment is down, and there are a record number of people in employment.

    Corbyn says the deficit was meant to be eradicated by 2015, and then by 2020. Now the date has been put off again. And she mentions the IFS, but it says the prospect for workers is “dreadful” and that this will be the worst decade for living standards since the 1020s.


    To me that looks like Corbyn heard May mention three letters beginning with I and thought IFS - his team would have talked about them last week - and thought he had an opportunity to score a goal.
    Ummm: surely Spain is the fastest growing advanced economy in the world right now? They're running at c. 3% for the second year in a row.
    Spain isn't in the G20 iirc and definitely isn't in the G7.
    Which is strange, because it's economy is the 14th largest in the world, and is the same size as Australia's or Russia's. (It's economy is more than 4x larger than South Africa's, and they get into the G20.)
    I think it's a combination of not really having a military and already having enough European members in the G20.
    Fair point. But I think the EU should leave the G20 to make way for Spain...

    (I admit to being a little bit of a Spainophile.)
    I think that the UK should cease advertising itself as '5th. largest economy in the world'. Last time I looked on Wikipedia it was 8 or 9
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP).
    PPP isn't really the best measure for "largeness" of the economy. Straight nominal GDP will do there. We 'were' fifth on that measure.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita is the best measure for how the "average" person is, though. And we are 25th here.
    Looking at that, I'm staggered to see how close Spain is to Italy, and South Korea is to Japan.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    You CANNOT do that to the English language.

    U can do lotz of fings 2 English & gt away wiv it.

    It makes it very versatile.

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Scott_P said:
    However, Momentum is still on board.
    When I first saw this I misread the start of the article as

    "How the government must regret trying to exercise Article 50 using Royal Mail..."
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565

    tpfkar said:

    Liberal Democrats in Richmond Park are predicting they will narrowly snatch the west London seat from Zac Goldsmith, after a campaigning blitz in which the party claimed activists spoke to more than 30,000 voters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/30/lib-dems-eye-victory-over-zac-goldsmith-richmond-park?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Well, they would say that.....
    No - it's a very risky message. If the LDs are already winning, they don't need my vote. The message of being a couple of % behind is safer.

    Having said that, my LD source is bullish - there was a sense a while back that polling day would come too soon, but not any more. Real question is whether the tactical votes promised from ex-Labour supporters who don't like Corbyn / Brexit will come off. If they sit on their hands, Zac will squeak home.
    If they cannot win back Richmond then where can they gain something they once held?
    We can't forget the conniving cowardice shown by the Tory party in not standing. The idea of not standing against one of your own who quits the party should be unthinkable, and had the Tories run someone like Fiona Syms, I think the Lib Dems would have had a much easier time of things (although Zac would have found it easier to frame the by-el all about Heathrow.)

    So it's not quite optimum Lib Dem circumstance, but no quibbling that opportunities like this don't come along often.
  • Mr. 1000, not that surprised by Spain/Italy, but am surprised South Korea would seem to be so near Japan.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Referendum news (no, this one):

    Renzi will quit anyway says Salvini

    http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2016/11/30/renzi-will-quit-anyway-says-salvini-2_39b4af88-3458-4529-a0ee-15b7a5c59088.html

    Sandy, your man on the spot!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,982
    edited November 2016

    Josias and others, what do you make of this:
    (Snip)

    Thanks for that. I think I've posted about another CO2-> ethanol scheme on here before, but this one looks interesting.

    Two immediate thoughts:
    *) It's Oak Ridge, and those guys know what they're doing.
    *) Even with our deep knowledge of materials science and chemistry, it's still possible for scientists to make unexpected breakthroughs. Which has to be good for the future.
  • You CANNOT do that to the English language.
    I blame a lack of GRAMMAR school education! :lol:
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721

    Happy St Andrews day to our PB scottish posters.

    Thank you Johhnno
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    Josias and others, what do you make of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7EYQLOlwDM

    How do I copyright the brandname: "Martian moonshine" ?
  • MP F***wit of the day award?

    Step forward Henry Smith on Daily Politics complaining about animal products used in the £5 note.

    Didn't see that bit of DP, but I have sympathy with the vegans on this one. It seems a really thoughtless/careless thing for the State to have done.
    Well they could choose to eat currency from another country.
    EURO 'aving a laugh!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721
    edited November 2016

    I think Davidson is the real roadblock to #indyref2 not the hypothetical polls on the actual question. She'd successfully frame it as a populist revolt against an SNP establishment who wouldn't listen.

    Given how much they put on in the last campaign I don't think YES would be too bothered about starting on 44%.

    Deluded in the extreme, absolutely stark raving bonkers. Only thing that will stop it is the Tories dithering and then renaging on pulling out of EU.
  • F1: about three days late, the BBC notices there's no German race next year:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38160269

    In their defence, they do have what appears to be news, in that there's still a question mark over Brazil.

    Interlagos is probably my favourite circuit on the calendar. It'd be ridiculous to lose that whilst going to Azerbaijan.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,920

    philiph said:

    Some interesting facts and figures. IMHO we will start to see major drop in minimum wage jobs in the 5-10 year timeframe.

    http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/economics/item/24699-mcdonald-s-response-to-15-minimum-wage-automation-in-every-store

    No we won't.
    The minimum or living wage acts like a magnet that will attract more and more jobs to be paid at the lowest (or close to the lowest) legal rate. It sets a floor that will become the norm for many jobs that are currently paid well over the minimum.
    Not if immigration is radically curbed for those jobs. If the supply side drops then firms will have to pay more. In a given year circa 1/4 to 1/3 of new job entrants are migrants, most at the minimum wage level. For example if the rules for non-EU workers applied to EU workers then >80% of EU workers would not be eleigible to work here.
    PS I favour a work permit system rather than quotas.
    Are most at the minimum wage level? Do you have a source?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,920

    rcs1000 said:

    Dixie said:

    Just watched Zac on DP. He's long winded in public. Quite a bore.

    I have a quite irrational dislike of Zac.
    Handsome and wealthy, what is there to dislike?
    But I'm handsome and wealthy, and not a cock*.

    * Opinions vary as to whether I'm a cock.
  • tpfkar said:

    tpfkar said:

    Liberal Democrats in Richmond Park are predicting they will narrowly snatch the west London seat from Zac Goldsmith, after a campaigning blitz in which the party claimed activists spoke to more than 30,000 voters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/30/lib-dems-eye-victory-over-zac-goldsmith-richmond-park?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Well, they would say that.....
    No - it's a very risky message. If the LDs are already winning, they don't need my vote. The message of being a couple of % behind is safer.

    Having said that, my LD source is bullish - there was a sense a while back that polling day would come too soon, but not any more. Real question is whether the tactical votes promised from ex-Labour supporters who don't like Corbyn / Brexit will come off. If they sit on their hands, Zac will squeak home.
    If they cannot win back Richmond then where can they gain something they once held?
    We can't forget the conniving cowardice shown by the Tory party in not standing.
    Disagree, it looks more to me like pragmatic common-sense, why split the vote and hand a victory to the LibDems, when the independent candidate is a Tory in all but name?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,920

    tpfkar said:

    Liberal Democrats in Richmond Park are predicting they will narrowly snatch the west London seat from Zac Goldsmith, after a campaigning blitz in which the party claimed activists spoke to more than 30,000 voters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/30/lib-dems-eye-victory-over-zac-goldsmith-richmond-park?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Well, they would say that.....
    No - it's a very risky message. If the LDs are already winning, they don't need my vote. The message of being a couple of % behind is safer.

    Having said that, my LD source is bullish - there was a sense a while back that polling day would come too soon, but not any more. Real question is whether the tactical votes promised from ex-Labour supporters who don't like Corbyn / Brexit will come off. If they sit on their hands, Zac will squeak home.
    If they cannot win back Richmond then where can they gain something they once held?
    Cambridge?
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife

    And errrr... that's about it.
  • Memo to self.

    Must remember NOT to eat any of the new-fangled fivers tonight.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565

    tpfkar said:

    tpfkar said:

    Liberal Democrats in Richmond Park are predicting they will narrowly snatch the west London seat from Zac Goldsmith, after a campaigning blitz in which the party claimed activists spoke to more than 30,000 voters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/30/lib-dems-eye-victory-over-zac-goldsmith-richmond-park?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Well, they would say that.....
    No - it's a very risky message. If the LDs are already winning, they don't need my vote. The message of being a couple of % behind is safer.

    Having said that, my LD source is bullish - there was a sense a while back that polling day would come too soon, but not any more. Real question is whether the tactical votes promised from ex-Labour supporters who don't like Corbyn / Brexit will come off. If they sit on their hands, Zac will squeak home.
    If they cannot win back Richmond then where can they gain something they once held?
    We can't forget the conniving cowardice shown by the Tory party in not standing.
    Disagree, it looks more to me like pragmatic common-sense, why split the vote and hand a victory to the LibDems, when the independent candidate is a Tory in all but name?
    Not sure we are disagreeing - clearly smart and ruthless. But sets a precedent if any other independently minded MPs feel their consciences pulled later in the parliament.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,229
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/803947487451037697

    Lib Dems need a modest proposal to overcome this.

    As a first born second born works for me.
  • YellowSubmarine, some jobs are just not worth having in a country. Jobs where for example the pay is low and the % filled by migrants is high and where the country's social benefits and resources (health, education etc) which is consumed by those workers, outweighs the taxes that those jobs generate.

    That's an entirely separate argument and one I can't recall a prominent Leaver ever making. I suspect because it's only true in the longer term. In the short term importing healthy, younger workers someone else has paid to educate to do jobs that wouldn't otherwise be in Britain is a sugar rush/caffeine hit/coke snort for the economy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,229
    edited November 2016
    Latest epistle from Ruth:

    "The SNP are considering lowering exam pass marks to as little as 35%, further undermining school standards. We are pressing for an independent inspection regime to ensure a robust exam system that parents can have confidence in.
    •The SNP have confirmed their plans to make Scotland the most highly-taxed part of the United Kingdom. We are opposed to hiking income tax rates in Scotland above those in the rest of the UK.
    •More evidence has emerged of avoidable deaths in Scottish hospitals. We are calling on the Scottish Government to explain why a series of warnings, over a decade, around hospital safety were ignored by Ministers.
    •And, on top of all that, the SNP wants to ban using the word ‘offender’ when talking about convicted criminals. We are demanding tougher community sentences and an end to soft-touch justice."

    Having an actual opposition is definitely making this governing malarkey harder.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,796
    edited November 2016

    F1: about three days late, the BBC notices there's no German race next year:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38160269

    In their defence, they do have what appears to be news, in that there's still a question mark over Brazil.

    Interlagos is probably my favourite circuit on the calendar. It'd be ridiculous to lose that whilst going to Azerbaijan.

    Given that the last race is fixed if Brazil disappears there is a 1 month gap between races.
  • malcolmg said:

    I think Davidson is the real roadblock to #indyref2 not the hypothetical polls on the actual question. She'd successfully frame it as a populist revolt against an SNP establishment who wouldn't listen.

    Given how much they put on in the last campaign I don't think YES would be too bothered about starting on 44%.

    Deluded in the extreme, absolutely stark raving bonkers. Only thing that will stop it is the Tories dithering and then renaging on pulling out of EU.
    I don't mind being called that Malcolm. Now that I'm routinely branded a Traitor here it seems almost affectionate. I hope you are well.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,982
    Pulpstar said:

    Josias and others, what do you make of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7EYQLOlwDM

    How do I copyright the brandname: "Martian moonshine" ?
    I hadn't thought of that. I wonder if this (and the conversion from ethanol to methane) would be easier than the Sabatier reaction to get methane on Mars?

    Although probably not until this system has been made to work outside the lab.
  • tpfkar said:

    tpfkar said:

    tpfkar said:

    Liberal Democrats in Richmond Park are predicting they will narrowly snatch the west London seat from Zac Goldsmith, after a campaigning blitz in which the party claimed activists spoke to more than 30,000 voters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/30/lib-dems-eye-victory-over-zac-goldsmith-richmond-park?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Well, they would say that.....
    No - it's a very risky message. If the LDs are already winning, they don't need my vote. The message of being a couple of % behind is safer.

    Having said that, my LD source is bullish - there was a sense a while back that polling day would come too soon, but not any more. Real question is whether the tactical votes promised from ex-Labour supporters who don't like Corbyn / Brexit will come off. If they sit on their hands, Zac will squeak home.
    If they cannot win back Richmond then where can they gain something they once held?
    We can't forget the conniving cowardice shown by the Tory party in not standing.
    Disagree, it looks more to me like pragmatic common-sense, why split the vote and hand a victory to the LibDems, when the independent candidate is a Tory in all but name?
    Not sure we are disagreeing - clearly smart and ruthless. But sets a precedent if any other independently minded MPs feel their consciences pulled later in the parliament.
    I think the precedent was set by David Davis in 2008. If the Goldsmith by-election shows us anything, it is that principled and independently minded MPs are rare as hen's teeth and only emerge once every eight years...
  • Pulpstar said:

    Josias and others, what do you make of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7EYQLOlwDM

    How do I copyright the brandname: "Martian moonshine" ?
    I hadn't thought of that. I wonder if this (and the conversion from ethanol to methane) would be easier than the Sabatier reaction to get methane on Mars?

    Although probably not until this system has been made to work outside the lab.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZsNg04IcHc
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    edited November 2016

    YellowSubmarine, some jobs are just not worth having in a country. Jobs where for example the pay is low and the % filled by migrants is high and where the country's social benefits and resources (health, education etc) which is consumed by those workers, outweighs the taxes that those jobs generate.

    That's an entirely separate argument and one I can't recall a prominent Leaver ever making. I suspect because it's only true in the longer term. In the short term importing healthy, younger workers someone else has paid to educate to do jobs that wouldn't otherwise be in Britain is a sugar rush/caffeine hit/coke snort for the economy.
    People have been arguing quality over quantity for years, YS. There are many, many posters on here who have been pointing out the huge lag between GDP and per capita GDP, including yours truly.

    One of the reasons the benefits (excluding pensions) and tax credits bill hasn't come down very much (it's gone up) is because we're importing workers who require massive government subsidies. In pure fiscal terms unskilled immigration is a net negative as we spend more in benefits and benefits in kind on an unskilled migrant than they generate in tax income per year. The effect of this is clearly seen in the deficit figures. I haven't done the numbers but on the back of a fag packet I'd guess that unskilled migrants have a 0.75 multiplier, as in they use more resources than they contribute. Then you have the big issue "self employed" scammers who are probably around 0.1 on the scale.

    Immigration can and should be a net positive for the UK, on balance, it probably isn't at the moment.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387

    Pulpstar said:

    Josias and others, what do you make of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7EYQLOlwDM

    How do I copyright the brandname: "Martian moonshine" ?
    I hadn't thought of that. I wonder if this (and the conversion from ethanol to methane) would be easier than the Sabatier reaction to get methane on Mars?

    Although probably not until this system has been made to work outside the lab.
    How to make fuel from CO2 and water:

    Step 1: Plant an acorn
    Step 2: Come back 50 years later and chop down the oak tree
    Step 3: Burn the wood

    (Alternative, faster growing species are also available!)
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Pulpstar said:

    Josias and others, what do you make of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7EYQLOlwDM

    How do I copyright the brandname: "Martian moonshine" ?
    I hadn't thought of that. I wonder if this (and the conversion from ethanol to methane) would be easier than the Sabatier reaction to get methane on Mars?

    Although probably not until this system has been made to work outside the lab.
    How to make fuel from CO2 and water:

    Step 1: Plant an acorn
    Step 2: Come back 50 years later and chop down the oak tree
    Step 3: Burn the wood

    (Alternative, faster growing species are also available!)
    Faster growing species are not available from an acorn.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,982

    Pulpstar said:

    Josias and others, what do you make of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7EYQLOlwDM

    How do I copyright the brandname: "Martian moonshine" ?
    I hadn't thought of that. I wonder if this (and the conversion from ethanol to methane) would be easier than the Sabatier reaction to get methane on Mars?

    Although probably not until this system has been made to work outside the lab.
    How to make fuel from CO2 and water:

    Step 1: Plant an acorn
    Step 2: Come back 50 years later and chop down the oak tree
    Step 3: Burn the wood

    (Alternative, faster growing species are also available!)
    A worthy process, but it might fail between steps 1 and 2 on Mars ... ;)
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Pulpstar said:

    Josias and others, what do you make of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7EYQLOlwDM

    How do I copyright the brandname: "Martian moonshine" ?
    I hadn't thought of that. I wonder if this (and the conversion from ethanol to methane) would be easier than the Sabatier reaction to get methane on Mars?

    Although probably not until this system has been made to work outside the lab.
    How to make fuel from CO2 and water:

    Step 1: Plant an acorn
    Step 2: Come back 50 years later and chop down the oak tree
    Step 3: Burn the wood

    (Alternative, faster growing species are also available!)
    I still like the idea of being to create booze just by breathing. Half of Britain would succumb to hyperventilation.
  • philiph said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Josias and others, what do you make of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7EYQLOlwDM

    How do I copyright the brandname: "Martian moonshine" ?
    I hadn't thought of that. I wonder if this (and the conversion from ethanol to methane) would be easier than the Sabatier reaction to get methane on Mars?

    Although probably not until this system has been made to work outside the lab.
    How to make fuel from CO2 and water:

    Step 1: Plant an acorn
    Step 2: Come back 50 years later and chop down the oak tree
    Step 3: Burn the wood

    (Alternative, faster growing species are also available!)
    Faster growing species are not available from an acorn.
    ZX Spectrum!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,982
    philiph said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Josias and others, what do you make of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7EYQLOlwDM

    How do I copyright the brandname: "Martian moonshine" ?
    I hadn't thought of that. I wonder if this (and the conversion from ethanol to methane) would be easier than the Sabatier reaction to get methane on Mars?

    Although probably not until this system has been made to work outside the lab.
    How to make fuel from CO2 and water:

    Step 1: Plant an acorn
    Step 2: Come back 50 years later and chop down the oak tree
    Step 3: Burn the wood

    (Alternative, faster growing species are also available!)
    Faster growing species are not available from an acorn.
    Bah. Back in 1985 we had the fastest species in existence.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387

    Pulpstar said:

    Josias and others, what do you make of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7EYQLOlwDM

    How do I copyright the brandname: "Martian moonshine" ?
    I hadn't thought of that. I wonder if this (and the conversion from ethanol to methane) would be easier than the Sabatier reaction to get methane on Mars?

    Although probably not until this system has been made to work outside the lab.
    How to make fuel from CO2 and water:

    Step 1: Plant an acorn
    Step 2: Come back 50 years later and chop down the oak tree
    Step 3: Burn the wood

    (Alternative, faster growing species are also available!)
    A worthy process, but it might fail between steps 1 and 2 on Mars ... ;)
    Good! We have no business dicking about on other planets. We've dumped enough of our crap on Mars already.
  • Scott_P said:
    Hooray the single market cat looks alive to me.
  • Scott_P said:
    Hooray the single market cat looks alive to me.
    I'm not sure. It could be stuffed.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,982

    Pulpstar said:

    Josias and others, what do you make of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7EYQLOlwDM

    How do I copyright the brandname: "Martian moonshine" ?
    I hadn't thought of that. I wonder if this (and the conversion from ethanol to methane) would be easier than the Sabatier reaction to get methane on Mars?

    Although probably not until this system has been made to work outside the lab.
    How to make fuel from CO2 and water:

    Step 1: Plant an acorn
    Step 2: Come back 50 years later and chop down the oak tree
    Step 3: Burn the wood

    (Alternative, faster growing species are also available!)
    A worthy process, but it might fail between steps 1 and 2 on Mars ... ;)
    Good! We have no business dicking about on other planets. We've dumped enough of our crap on Mars already.
    Heretic! :)
  • Incidentally, the Diplomacy game (124083) is up and running.

    The first turn's always intriguing. Which way will the various nations jump?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    SNP 39% -6
    CON 24% +3
    LAB 14% -1

    Labour are fast becoming an endangered species in Scotland, - didn’t Jeremy have a plan?

    Where are the LDs on that list? Below or above the Greens?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    Liberal Democrats in Richmond Park are predicting they will narrowly snatch the west London seat from Zac Goldsmith, after a campaigning blitz in which the party claimed activists spoke to more than 30,000 voters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/30/lib-dems-eye-victory-over-zac-goldsmith-richmond-park?CMP=share_btn_tw

    They need a low turnout to win...
    Will it happen..not sure but 2/1 Olney are pretty good odds
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,920
    timmo said:

    SNP 39% -6
    CON 24% +3
    LAB 14% -1

    Labour are fast becoming an endangered species in Scotland, - didn’t Jeremy have a plan?

    Where are the LDs on that list? Below or above the Greens?
    Well below, they're on about 5%. Mind you, they gained two constituency seats in Scotland on a 5% vote share this year.
  • Scott_P said:
    Hooray the single market cat looks alive to me.
    I'm not sure. It could be stuffed.
    In which case so are we.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Josias and others, what do you make of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7EYQLOlwDM

    How do I copyright the brandname: "Martian moonshine" ?
    I hadn't thought of that. I wonder if this (and the conversion from ethanol to methane) would be easier than the Sabatier reaction to get methane on Mars?

    Although probably not until this system has been made to work outside the lab.
    How to make fuel from CO2 and water:

    Step 1: Plant an acorn
    Step 2: Come back 50 years later and chop down the oak tree
    Step 3: Burn the wood

    (Alternative, faster growing species are also available!)
    A worthy process, but it might fail between steps 1 and 2 on Mars ... ;)
    The current thinking on Mars human missions is to make the return fuel there from atmospheric CO2 (over 90% by mass) and hydrogen (taken there and under 10% by mass).
  • Pulpstar said:

    Josias and others, what do you make of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7EYQLOlwDM

    How do I copyright the brandname: "Martian moonshine" ?
    I hadn't thought of that. I wonder if this (and the conversion from ethanol to methane) would be easier than the Sabatier reaction to get methane on Mars?

    Although probably not until this system has been made to work outside the lab.
    How to make fuel from CO2 and water:

    Step 1: Plant an acorn
    Step 2: Come back 50 years later and chop down the oak tree
    Step 3: Burn the wood

    (Alternative, faster growing species are also available!)
    My eldest son did just that 45 years ago and we now have the most wonderful oak tree in our garden, and no, it is not being chopped down
This discussion has been closed.