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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay moves to negative ratings in Scotland while fewer Scots n

SystemSystem Posts: 12,265
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay moves to negative ratings in Scotland while fewer Scots now back independence than at the 2014 referendum

Given the huge importance of Scotland as the UK moves towards BREXIT there’s a new Scotland only YouGov poll – the first since August.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,391
    edited November 2016
    Re the mandateless Mrs May and her ratings, where Scotland leads England will inevitably follow.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,391
    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Third! Like SLAB....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,382
    This'll sort out Tessy's Scotch ratings. Channeling Margo Leadbetter reading out a Wiki entry always goes down a treat.

    http://tinyurl.com/gut85kr

    'I think of the computer games cluster in Dundee'

    Lolz.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    edited November 2016
    Fourth like Arsenal. Fifth like Spurs.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    Yes, it does look that way doesn't it. As I mentioned on the previous thread, the concern for the Yes/SNP is the 25% of Yes voters who aren't in favour of staying in the EU if the rest of the UK leaves. To me that looks like people who want proper independence, not the preferred option of the SNP which is leaving the UK to join or stay in the EU. Without that 25% winning Sindyref2 is going to be impossible.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    I think the Scots have easily worked out which 'Union' is more important - the SNP really have stuffed it.......

    And whether or not you would support it, if Scotland is still part of the UK do you think it would be relalistically possible for Scotland to remain part of the EU after the rest of the UK leaves?

    Possible: 22
    Not Possible: 62

    By positing it as 'the Uk or the EU' the SNP have focussed people's minds......not to their advantage....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    Brexshit certainly has a toxic stench right now.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2016
    SNP 39% -6
    CON 24% +3
    LAB 14% -1

    Labour are fast becoming an endangered species in Scotland, - didn’t Jeremy have a plan?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,419
    Scottish politics are still almost totally driven by the independence question. Greens are seen as a pro-independence alternative to the SNP. Support for the SNP plus Greens is 85%+ correlated to whether you think Scotland should be independent. If you do, you vote for one of those parties; if you don't, you vote Labour, Conservative or Lib Dem.

    My interpretation of the poll is that people are getting unenamored with the SNP performance in government and they also think independence is off the agenda for the time being. If it comes back on, that should bolster the SNP as they are seen as more serious in getting independence than the Greens, which are a (mild) protest vote in reality.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    I think the Scots have easily worked out which 'Union' is more important - the SNP really have stuffed it.......

    And whether or not you would support it, if Scotland is still part of the UK do you think it would be relalistically possible for Scotland to remain part of the EU after the rest of the UK leaves?

    Possible: 22
    Not Possible: 62

    By positing it as 'the Uk or the EU' the SNP have focussed people's minds......not to their advantage....
    What's the pro/anti-EU split in answers?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    I think the Scots have easily worked out which 'Union' is more important - the SNP really have stuffed it.......

    And whether or not you would support it, if Scotland is still part of the UK do you think it would be relalistically possible for Scotland to remain part of the EU after the rest of the UK leaves?

    Possible: 22
    Not Possible: 62

    By positing it as 'the Uk or the EU' the SNP have focussed people's minds......not to their advantage....
    What's the pro/anti-EU split in answers?
    65/35 in favour of remain in a rerun. 45/43 against having a second referendum though.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    MaxPB said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    I think the Scots have easily worked out which 'Union' is more important - the SNP really have stuffed it.......

    And whether or not you would support it, if Scotland is still part of the UK do you think it would be relalistically possible for Scotland to remain part of the EU after the rest of the UK leaves?

    Possible: 22
    Not Possible: 62

    By positing it as 'the Uk or the EU' the SNP have focussed people's minds......not to their advantage....
    What's the pro/anti-EU split in answers?
    65/35 in favour of remain in a rerun. 45/43 against having a second referendum though.
    Sorry I meant of pro-independence how many think they can stay in the EU if the UK leaves, compared to anti-independence
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    There was a long list of remainers (and leavers) on here who claimed Brexit would ensure Sindy.

    Unsurprisingly they were very very wrong.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    I think the Scots have easily worked out which 'Union' is more important - the SNP really have stuffed it.......

    And whether or not you would support it, if Scotland is still part of the UK do you think it would be relalistically possible for Scotland to remain part of the EU after the rest of the UK leaves?

    Possible: 22
    Not Possible: 62

    By positing it as 'the Uk or the EU' the SNP have focussed people's minds......not to their advantage....
    What's the pro/anti-EU split in answers?
    65/35 in favour of remain in a rerun. 45/43 against having a second referendum though.
    Sorry I meant of pro-independence how many think they can stay in the EU if the UK leaves, compared to anti-independence
    50/35 in favour of "would probably not be possible" among Yes voters, 76/10 for the same option for No voters.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    TGOHF said:

    There was a long list of remainers (and leavers) on here who claimed Brexit would ensure Sindy.

    Unsurprisingly they were very very wrong.

    "Experts"
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    tlg86 said:

    Fourth like Arsenal. Fifth like peak Spurs.

    corrected
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    I think the Scots have easily worked out which 'Union' is more important - the SNP really have stuffed it.......

    And whether or not you would support it, if Scotland is still part of the UK do you think it would be relalistically possible for Scotland to remain part of the EU after the rest of the UK leaves?

    Possible: 22
    Not Possible: 62

    By positing it as 'the Uk or the EU' the SNP have focussed people's minds......not to their advantage....
    Erm, have you misunderstood the question? This is asking about Scotland having special status after Brexit of being both part of the UK and in the EU.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alexmassie: The key segment identified by @YouGov for @thetimes, however, is the 25% of 2015's SNP voters who would vote No in indyref2.

    @alexmassie: There now being significantly more SNP-No voters than Labour-Yes voters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Tory swings needed/target:

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 0.30%
    -----------------------------------
    Dumfries and Galloway 5.75%
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 6.37%
    Edinburgh South - an 8.15 swing from SNP to Con is needed, if Lab collapse
    Perth and North Perthshire 8.89%
    Moray 9.20%
    Aberdeen South 9.41%
    Stirling 11.25%


    Holyrood swings:
    Edi Central Conservative gain from SNP Swing +9.7 (Won from fourth)
    Eastwood (Swing away from the Tories to the SNP, Labour collapse rose both boats)
    Dumfrieshire: Conservative gain from Labour Swing +11.0; 0 SNP/Tory swing.

    Personally I think CON will gain the three bolded, aided by a Labour collapse in these seats. WAK may prove trickier as I think the Lib Dem rump will prove more resilient than Labour ones.
    The "No" long time SNP seats will be closer, but holds for the SNP I think (Perth, Moray..)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/803915125241614336
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    Tory swings needed/target:

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 0.30%
    -----------------------------------
    Dumfries and Galloway 5.75%
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 6.37%
    Edinburgh South - an 8.15 swing from SNP to Con is needed, if Lab collapse
    Perth and North Perthshire 8.89%
    Moray 9.20%
    Aberdeen South 9.41%
    Stirling 11.25%


    Holyrood swings:
    Edi Central Conservative gain from SNP Swing +9.7 (Won from fourth)
    Eastwood (Swing away from the Tories to the SNP, Labour collapse rose both boats)
    Dumfrieshire: Conservative gain from Labour Swing +11.0; 0 SNP/Tory swing.

    Personally I think CON will gain the three bolded, aided by a Labour collapse in these seats. WAK may prove trickier as I think the Lib Dem rump will prove more resilient than Labour ones.
    The "No" long time SNP seats will be closer, but holds for the SNP I think (Perth, Moray..)

    This is on current boundaries? I think Antony Wells said there will be notionally 0 Tory seats in Scotland if the review goes through.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,012
    CarlottaVance said:

    By positing it as 'the Uk or the EU' the SNP have focussed people's minds......not to their advantage....

    We don't want to be run by London, we want to be run by Brussels, that is a tough sell. And the economics is even more bonkers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    TGOHF said:

    There was a long list of remainers (and leavers) on here who claimed Brexit would ensure Sindy.

    Unsurprisingly they were very very wrong.

    We're still in the phoney war period of Brexit. Wait and see what happens further down the line.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: The key segment identified by @YouGov for @thetimes, however, is the 25% of 2015's SNP voters who would vote No in indyref2.

    @alexmassie: There now being significantly more SNP-No voters than Labour-Yes voters.

    What's interesting is that doesn't appear to be the result of the SNP adding these voters. They have either replaced Yes voters, or they are Yes voters that would now vote No.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Pulpstar said:

    Tory swings needed/target:

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 0.30%
    -----------------------------------
    Dumfries and Galloway 5.75%
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 6.37%
    Edinburgh South - an 8.15 swing from SNP to Con is needed, if Lab collapse
    Perth and North Perthshire 8.89%
    Moray 9.20%
    Aberdeen South 9.41%
    Stirling 11.25%


    Holyrood swings:
    Edi Central Conservative gain from SNP Swing +9.7 (Won from fourth)
    Eastwood (Swing away from the Tories to the SNP, Labour collapse rose both boats)
    Dumfrieshire: Conservative gain from Labour Swing +11.0; 0 SNP/Tory swing.

    Personally I think CON will gain the three bolded, aided by a Labour collapse in these seats. WAK may prove trickier as I think the Lib Dem rump will prove more resilient than Labour ones.
    The "No" long time SNP seats will be closer, but holds for the SNP I think (Perth, Moray..)

    The Tories might do even better than above though if the SNP votes within Scotland shift into piling up useless majorities in the Glasgow environs/Western Scotland.

    Five seats max I think.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Typically and tragic-comically this drop in support for Sindy comes as SLab inches towards supporting Independence.

    Would bring tears of laughter to a glass eye (not Gordon's..)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tory swings needed/target:

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 0.30%
    -----------------------------------
    Dumfries and Galloway 5.75%
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 6.37%
    Edinburgh South - an 8.15 swing from SNP to Con is needed, if Lab collapse
    Perth and North Perthshire 8.89%
    Moray 9.20%
    Aberdeen South 9.41%
    Stirling 11.25%


    Holyrood swings:
    Edi Central Conservative gain from SNP Swing +9.7 (Won from fourth)
    Eastwood (Swing away from the Tories to the SNP, Labour collapse rose both boats)
    Dumfrieshire: Conservative gain from Labour Swing +11.0; 0 SNP/Tory swing.

    Personally I think CON will gain the three bolded, aided by a Labour collapse in these seats. WAK may prove trickier as I think the Lib Dem rump will prove more resilient than Labour ones.
    The "No" long time SNP seats will be closer, but holds for the SNP I think (Perth, Moray..)

    This is on current boundaries? I think Antony Wells said there will be notionally 0 Tory seats in Scotland if the review goes through.
    Yes I'm going off current boundaries.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: The key segment identified by @YouGov for @thetimes, however, is the 25% of 2015's SNP voters who would vote No in indyref2.

    @alexmassie: There now being significantly more SNP-No voters than Labour-Yes voters.

    The crossover between the 25% of SNP voters now in the No column and the 25% of Yes voters who wouldn't support staying in the EU after the UK leaves will be extremely high IMO. If the choice being offered is UK vs EU (and that is what the SNP are offering) then Sindy is dead.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,382
    And the prize for fuckwitted apples & pears comparison of the day goes to...

    https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/803888021707902976

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/cjterry/status/803916200338132992
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    Yes, it does look that way doesn't it. As I mentioned on the previous thread, the concern for the Yes/SNP is the 25% of Yes voters who aren't in favour of staying in the EU if the rest of the UK leaves. To me that looks like people who want proper independence, not the preferred option of the SNP which is leaving the UK to join or stay in the EU. Without that 25% winning Sindyref2 is going to be impossible.
    The SNP care about Scottish independence, end of story. They care about the EU because it makes achieving that (via referendum) much easier - less of a leap in the dark. Selling proper independence is much harder.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,385
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Re the mandateless Mrs May and her ratings, where Scotland leads England will inevitably follow.

    Not necessarily. The way infrastructure decisions were stepped through gives me hope that Theresa May's dithering style is more Obama than Gordon Brown, and that Brexit will be stepped through in much the same way. Maybe we will get to a point where, when the Article 50 debate comes to the Commons, TM will lead for the government and suddenly have a lot more answers to hand.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Opinion polls for the next Italian general election:

    image
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tissue_Price said:

    The SNP care about Scottish independence, end of story. They care about the EU because it makes achieving that (via referendum) much easier - less of a leap in the dark. Selling proper independence is much harder.

    The SNP just hate the English. The EU are not English.

    https://twitter.com/104qoeoaeiey9ju/status/803886127337897984
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/cjterry/status/803916200338132992

    More MSM bias.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    Tissue_Price said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    Yes, it does look that way doesn't it. As I mentioned on the previous thread, the concern for the Yes/SNP is the 25% of Yes voters who aren't in favour of staying in the EU if the rest of the UK leaves. To me that looks like people who want proper independence, not the preferred option of the SNP which is leaving the UK to join or stay in the EU. Without that 25% winning Sindyref2 is going to be impossible.
    The SNP care about Scottish independence, end of story. They care about the EU because it makes achieving that (via referendum) much easier - less of a leap in the dark. Selling proper independence is much harder.
    But without proper independence on the table those 25% may turn out for No or not bother at all. Feel free to ignore me because I'm a leaver, but from my vantage point the choice of UK vs EU is only going to have one winner in Scotland. For No voters Unionism ranks extremely highly on their list of priorities, for Yes voters the EU doesn't, this can be seen in the drift towards No since June. Sindy can only win if the SNP can either convert Yes/Leave into Yes/Remain or No/Remain in Yes/Remain. I don't think it will be easy to convert either of those groups, the latter will be especially tough and the former might just decide not to bother.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    Prime minister Matteo Renzi of the PD has said he will resign if the result is NO. The M5S, which backs YES, hailed Brexit and wants Italy to leave the euro. Seriously, who is going to buy the new lira? Italy is headed the way of Greece.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Dromedary said:

    Opinion polls for the next Italian general election:

    image

    Awaiting a payout from Paddy Power when the next Italian GE takes place.

    19/11/2013
    No @ 4/7
    |Will Berlusconi be a PDL candidate in t
    Will Silvio Berlusconi be a PDL candidate at the next general election? £110 Pending
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    Dromedary said:

    Prime minister Matteo Renzi of the PD has said he will resign if the result is NO. The M5S, which backs YES, hailed Brexit and wants Italy to leave the euro. Seriously, who is going to buy the new lira? Italy's headed the way of Greece.

    I'd go on holiday to Italy and maybe look at buying an apartment on the Amalfi Coast though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Dromedary said:

    Prime minister Matteo Renzi of the PD has said he will resign if the result is NO. The M5S, which backs YES, hailed Brexit and wants Italy to leave the euro. Seriously, who is going to buy the new lira? Italy is headed the way of Greece.

    M5S backs "YES" ?

    So who is backing "No" ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    Dromedary said:

    Prime minister Matteo Renzi of the PD has said he will resign if the result is NO. The M5S, which backs YES, hailed Brexit and wants Italy to leave the euro. Seriously, who is going to buy the new lira? Italy is headed the way of Greece.

    Do you have yes and no mixed up?

    Regarding leaving the Euro, the Yes Minister line about things not happening just because politicians are keen on the idea applies.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    @Dromedary Are you sure Grillo is backing "Yes" ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    I do hope all of those idiots who blasted the government for not guaranteeing EU citizens' right to remain in the UK are apologising to Mrs May and Mr Hammond today. It's now become clear that the UK government is willing to agree to a reciprocal deal and it's the EU that is refusing to do one. I agree that people shouldn't be used as pawns in a negotiation, but it is the EU which is acting in bad faith.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    MaxPB said:

    Dromedary said:

    Prime minister Matteo Renzi of the PD has said he will resign if the result is NO. The M5S, which backs YES, hailed Brexit and wants Italy to leave the euro. Seriously, who is going to buy the new lira? Italy's headed the way of Greece.

    I'd go on holiday to Italy and maybe look at buying an apartment on the Amalfi Coast though.
    Italy needs reform and devaluation that leaving Euro would bring. Roger Bootle:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/27/italy-needs-reform-euro-exit-inevitable/

    Premium access I'm afraid.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    The Five Star movement backs "no"

    http://www.euronews.com/2016/11/26/italy-s-constitutional-referendum-grillo-and-renzi-reach-the-final-week-of-the
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Dromedary said:

    Prime minister Matteo Renzi of the PD has said he will resign if the result is NO. The M5S, which backs YES, hailed Brexit and wants Italy to leave the euro. Seriously, who is going to buy the new lira? Italy is headed the way of Greece.

    Tying the fate of a politican to the result of a referendum doesn't seem like a good idea to me. Even if Cameron did resign he didn't say so beforehand.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MaxPB said:

    I do hope all of those idiots who blasted the government for not guaranteeing EU citizens' right to remain in the UK are apologising to Mrs May and Mr Hammond today.

    Only if the idiots who voted for Brexit thus imperilling those rights go first...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    I do hope all of those idiots who blasted the government for not guaranteeing EU citizens' right to remain in the UK are apologising to Mrs May and Mr Hammond today.

    Only if the idiots who voted for Brexit thus imperilling those rights go first...
    I'm not bothered personally, but it was your lot that wanted the government to give away indefinite right to remain for EU citizens without the government agreeing the same for British citizens in the EU. That was stupid, I hope you can see that now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    If Italy leaves(*) then technically the Euro should appreciate in value.

    Though it won't.

    (*) Starts to look that way
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MaxPB said:

    it was your lot that wanted the government to give away indefinite right to remain for EU citizens without the government agreeing the same for British citizens in the EU.

    Not my lot...

    I voted remain
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    I do hope all of those idiots who blasted the government for not guaranteeing EU citizens' right to remain in the UK are apologising to Mrs May and Mr Hammond today.

    Only if the idiots who voted for Brexit thus imperilling those rights go first...
    I'm not bothered personally, but it was your lot that wanted the government to give away indefinite right to remain for EU citizens without the government agreeing the same for British citizens in the EU. That was stupid, I hope you can see that now.
    No, that was Andrea Leadsom.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    Pulpstar said:

    If Italy leaves(*) then technically the Euro should appreciate in value.

    Though it won't.

    (*) Starts to look that way

    No, if one of the core countries leaves the Eurozone the whole project begins to look reversible, it wouldn't be long before Greece and France follow suit which would turn the Euro into a new Deutsche Mark zone. Something which is not favourable for the Eastern nations or Spain and Portugal. If a country ever leaves the Eurozone I think it would be just a few years before the whole thing dissolves and they all revert to national currencies.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    williamglenn said:

    No, that was Andrea Leadsom.

    And Gisela Stuart IIRC.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    it was your lot that wanted the government to give away indefinite right to remain for EU citizens without the government agreeing the same for British citizens in the EU.

    Not my lot...

    I voted remain
    And after the leave vote?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    Theuniondivvie said:

    And the prize for fuckwitted apples & pears comparison of the day goes to...

    https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/803888021707902976

    Pretty sure she'll let the British refugees in once they need to escape from chemical weapons attacks by die-hard remainist Liberal Democrats.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MaxPB said:

    And after the leave vote?

    I was not one of the idiots calling for May to give away rights unilaterally, most of whom seem to be Brexiteers
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    Scott_P said:

    The SNP just hate the English. The EU are not English.

    Correct.

    Many people underestimate the SNP's cultiness and xenophobia and the infantile chip-on-the-shoulder "true believer" mentality that it plays to.

    I have heard Scottish nationalists declare that Scottish people didn't get a vote in the EUref because they weren't asked whether they wanted to stay in the EU. They seem to have forgotten that only an independent country can belong to the EU and the Scottish people recently rejected independence.

    Try telling an independence supporter that

    * what they are saying is that it's more important for Scotland to be in a single market (freedom of movement sense included) with Germany, Poland and Romania than with England

    * it is impossible for an independent country to be in a single market with two countries that aren't in a single market with each other

    (this gets harder to recognise the more someone has been shouting that the NO result in the EUref means there should be another indyref, because they might have to accept how mentally drugged they were not to notice)

    * an independent Scotland would have no "right" to be in the EU, and that isn't the fault of the English

    * an independent Scotland would have no "right" to a high credit rating

    * an independent Scotland would have no "right" to be in a single market with England, and it won't be in one if Scotland is in the EU and rUK is outside the EU and the single market - and that means customs posts on the border. And no, that's not "scaremongering". That's the truth.

    * England or rUK or E+W would not have to give an independent Scotland everything it wants in negotiations.

    * Considering the cons as well as the pros of what you want is what an intelligent person does. It is revoltingly ugly to consider such a person to be a "race traitor".
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    rottenborough said:

    MaxPB said:

    Dromedary said:

    Prime minister Matteo Renzi of the PD has said he will resign if the result is NO. The M5S, which backs YES, hailed Brexit and wants Italy to leave the euro. Seriously, who is going to buy the new lira? Italy's headed the way of Greece.

    I'd go on holiday to Italy and maybe look at buying an apartment on the Amalfi Coast though.
    Italy needs reform and devaluation that leaving Euro would bring. Roger Bootle:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/27/italy-needs-reform-euro-exit-inevitable/

    Premium access I'm afraid.
    I wrote an internal paper on that subject earlier in the year. I think the current value of the Lira would be around €0.65, an internal devaluation of that magnitude would destroy the Italian economy just like it has done to Greece. A controlled external devaluation and internal devaluation could achieve it within a few years. The external devaluation of the British economy is only half of the story for Brexit Britain, there are still 3-4 years of internal devaluation to manage IMO, if the nation is unable to do so then Sterling parity with USD is where we are heading IMO.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    I think the Scots have easily worked out which 'Union' is more important - the SNP really have stuffed it.......

    And whether or not you would support it, if Scotland is still part of the UK do you think it would be relalistically possible for Scotland to remain part of the EU after the rest of the UK leaves?

    Possible: 22
    Not Possible: 62

    By positing it as 'the Uk or the EU' the SNP have focussed people's minds......not to their advantage....
    What's the pro/anti-EU split in answers?
    Voted in EU Ref: Remain/Leave

    Possible: 27 / 10
    Not Possible: 59 / 81

    So even Pro EU voters think its not possible - by a 2:1 margin....
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The Death of a fighting Charlie Hebdo?
    https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/9425/charlie-hebdo-disappears
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edmundintokyo said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    And the prize for fuckwitted apples & pears comparison of the day goes to...

    https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/803888021707902976

    Pretty sure she'll let the British refugees in once they need to escape from chemical weapons attacks by die-hard remainist Liberal Democrats.
    Lentils as a sanctioned item?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    matt said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    And the prize for fuckwitted apples & pears comparison of the day goes to...

    https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/803888021707902976

    Pretty sure she'll let the British refugees in once they need to escape from chemical weapons attacks by die-hard remainist Liberal Democrats.
    Lentils as a sanctioned item?
    It'll start out as a well-intentioned gesture but before long anyone with a beard and sandals will get in.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edmundintokyo said:

    Pretty sure she'll let the British refugees in once they need to escape from chemical weapons attacks by die-hard remainist Liberal Democrats.

    :) Presumably using fortified Auchentennach Pate Tonic™? Anyone heard from @JackW lately?
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Brexit killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.

    I think the Scots have easily worked out which 'Union' is more important - the SNP really have stuffed it.......

    And whether or not you would support it, if Scotland is still part of the UK do you think it would be relalistically possible for Scotland to remain part of the EU after the rest of the UK leaves?

    Possible: 22
    Not Possible: 62

    By positing it as 'the Uk or the EU' the SNP have focussed people's minds......not to their advantage....
    What's the pro/anti-EU split in answers?
    Voted in EU Ref: Remain/Leave

    Possible: 27 / 10
    Not Possible: 59 / 81

    So even Pro EU voters think its not possible - by a 2:1 margin....
    They're right it's not possible, but that doesn't mean people won't choose independence with a chance of EU membership against staying in the British union outside of the EU. It's about xenophobic national pride, not logic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    edited November 2016
    Tissue_Price said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Pretty sure she'll let the British refugees in once they need to escape from chemical weapons attacks by die-hard remainist Liberal Democrats.

    :) Presumably using fortified Auchentennach Pate Tonic™? Anyone heard from @JackW lately?
    His ARSE took a hammering, or so I heard.

    Clinton up to over a 4 million lead in California now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,382
    edited November 2016
    Dromedary said:

    Scott_P said:

    The SNP just hate the English. The EU are not English.

    Correct.

    Many people underestimate the SNP's cultiness and xenophobia and the infantile chip-on-the-shoulder "true believer" mentality that it plays to.

    I have heard Scottish nationalists declare that Scottish people didn't get a vote in the EUref because they weren't asked whether they wanted to stay in the EU. They seem to have forgotten that only an independent country can belong to the EU and the Scottish people recently rejected independence.

    Try telling an independence supporter that

    * what they are saying is that it's more important for Scotland to be in a single market (freedom of movement sense included) with Germany, Poland and Romania than with England

    * it is impossible for an independent country to be in a single market with two countries that aren't in a single market with each other

    (this gets harder to recognise the more someone has been shouting that the NO result in the EUref means there should be another indyref, because they might have to accept how mentally drugged they were not to notice)

    * an independent Scotland would have no "right" to be in the EU, and that isn't the fault of the English

    * an independent Scotland would have no "right" to a high credit rating

    * an independent Scotland would have no "right" to be in a single market with England, and it won't be in one if Scotland is in the EU and rUK is outside the EU and the single market - and that means customs posts on the border. And no, that's not "scaremongering". That's the truth.

    * England or rUK or E+W would not have to give an independent Scotland everything it wants in negotiations.

    * Considering the cons as well as the pros of what you want is what an intelligent person does. It is revoltingly ugly to consider such a person to be a "race traitor".
    Pretty sure 'an independence supporter' would have fallen asleep after the first 30 seconds of that turgid series of rehashed strawmen.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,382
    williamglenn said:

    matt said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    And the prize for fuckwitted apples & pears comparison of the day goes to...

    https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/803888021707902976

    Pretty sure she'll let the British refugees in once they need to escape from chemical weapons attacks by die-hard remainist Liberal Democrats.
    Lentils as a sanctioned item?
    It'll start out as a well-intentioned gesture but before long anyone with a beard and sandals will get in.
    And that'll just be the LD women & children.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    The Five Star movement backs "no"

    http://www.euronews.com/2016/11/26/italy-s-constitutional-referendum-grillo-and-renzi-reach-the-final-week-of-the

    That's what I meant. Typo! Sorry!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    MaxPB said:

    rottenborough said:

    MaxPB said:

    Dromedary said:

    Prime minister Matteo Renzi of the PD has said he will resign if the result is NO. The M5S, which backs YES, hailed Brexit and wants Italy to leave the euro. Seriously, who is going to buy the new lira? Italy's headed the way of Greece.

    I'd go on holiday to Italy and maybe look at buying an apartment on the Amalfi Coast though.
    Italy needs reform and devaluation that leaving Euro would bring. Roger Bootle:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/27/italy-needs-reform-euro-exit-inevitable/

    Premium access I'm afraid.
    I wrote an internal paper on that subject earlier in the year. I think the current value of the Lira would be around €0.65, an internal devaluation of that magnitude would destroy the Italian economy just like it has done to Greece. A controlled external devaluation and internal devaluation could achieve it within a few years. The external devaluation of the British economy is only half of the story for Brexit Britain, there are still 3-4 years of internal devaluation to manage IMO, if the nation is unable to do so then Sterling parity with USD is where we are heading IMO.
    Excuse my ignorance but what is internal devaluation?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,917
    MaxPB said:

    rottenborough said:

    MaxPB said:

    Dromedary said:

    Prime minister Matteo Renzi of the PD has said he will resign if the result is NO. The M5S, which backs YES, hailed Brexit and wants Italy to leave the euro. Seriously, who is going to buy the new lira? Italy's headed the way of Greece.

    I'd go on holiday to Italy and maybe look at buying an apartment on the Amalfi Coast though.
    Italy needs reform and devaluation that leaving Euro would bring. Roger Bootle:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/27/italy-needs-reform-euro-exit-inevitable/

    Premium access I'm afraid.
    I wrote an internal paper on that subject earlier in the year. I think the current value of the Lira would be around €0.65, an internal devaluation of that magnitude would destroy the Italian economy just like it has done to Greece. A controlled external devaluation and internal devaluation could achieve it within a few years. The external devaluation of the British economy is only half of the story for Brexit Britain, there are still 3-4 years of internal devaluation to manage IMO, if the nation is unable to do so then Sterling parity with USD is where we are heading IMO.
    There are a lot more problems with Italy than just the Euro!

    I suspect that if it left the Euro, it would go through a decade of high inflation, and high nominal growth, but relatively weak real growth. Which would do wonders for the Italian banking system, but would suck for savers.

    Italy's biggest issue is not the Euro, although I suspect leaving would be a net positive for the country, but it's appalling demographics, which are the worst in developed Europe. It also has an unreformed labour market, and appalling corruption, especially in the South. For this reason, it's hard to envisage an environment where it manages more than 1% real growth over the longer term.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Italy leaves(*) then technically the Euro should appreciate in value.

    Though it won't.

    (*) Starts to look that way

    No, if one of the core countries leaves the Eurozone the whole project begins to look reversible, it wouldn't be long before Greece and France follow suit which would turn the Euro into a new Deutsche Mark zone. Something which is not favourable for the Eastern nations or Spain and Portugal. If a country ever leaves the Eurozone I think it would be just a few years before the whole thing dissolves and they all revert to national currencies.
    When FR goes it is all over imho.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,917
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Italy leaves(*) then technically the Euro should appreciate in value.

    Though it won't.

    (*) Starts to look that way

    No, if one of the core countries leaves the Eurozone the whole project begins to look reversible, it wouldn't be long before Greece and France follow suit which would turn the Euro into a new Deutsche Mark zone. Something which is not favourable for the Eastern nations or Spain and Portugal. If a country ever leaves the Eurozone I think it would be just a few years before the whole thing dissolves and they all revert to national currencies.
    I think that's broadly right, with one exception. I think you could continue to see a Northern European Euro - perhaps based on Germany, the Netherlands and the Baltics (support for the Euro is exceptionally strong among small countries).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,419
    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: The key segment identified by @YouGov for @thetimes, however, is the 25% of 2015's SNP voters who would vote No in indyref2.

    @alexmassie: There now being significantly more SNP-No voters than Labour-Yes voters.

    Alex Massie isn't quite correct because support for independence fluctuates somewhat. What is always the case, it seems, is that support for the SNP - AT THE TIME OF THE POLL - correlates with support for independence, also at the time of the poll. In this case a proportion of voters have moved away from both the SNP and independence.

    I also don't agree with others downthread that Brexit has killed off the prospect of independence, much as I would like to stay in the Union. Independence was killed off, for the time being, by the independence referendum. Brexit makes independence more likely in the medium term. It doesn't mean it will definitely happen, however.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/momentumtrumpt1/status/803926591420190721
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    rottenborough said:

    MaxPB said:

    rottenborough said:

    MaxPB said:

    Dromedary said:

    Prime minister Matteo Renzi of the PD has said he will resign if the result is NO. The M5S, which backs YES, hailed Brexit and wants Italy to leave the euro. Seriously, who is going to buy the new lira? Italy's headed the way of Greece.

    I'd go on holiday to Italy and maybe look at buying an apartment on the Amalfi Coast though.
    Italy needs reform and devaluation that leaving Euro would bring. Roger Bootle:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/27/italy-needs-reform-euro-exit-inevitable/

    Premium access I'm afraid.
    I wrote an internal paper on that subject earlier in the year. I think the current value of the Lira would be around €0.65, an internal devaluation of that magnitude would destroy the Italian economy just like it has done to Greece. A controlled external devaluation and internal devaluation could achieve it within a few years. The external devaluation of the British economy is only half of the story for Brexit Britain, there are still 3-4 years of internal devaluation to manage IMO, if the nation is unable to do so then Sterling parity with USD is where we are heading IMO.
    Excuse my ignorance but what is internal devaluation?
    A real reduction in wages, someone who gets paid €18000 would see their wages go down to €15000 with CPI above zero, as an example. An external devaluation would be the same person getting paid 18000 Lira this year and next year, but that 18000 Lira will have a lesser purchasing power (see the Brexit Toblerone). The latter is much easier to handle as it doesn't change consumer patterns as much, people still feel like they have the same amount of money to spend and tend not to notice that it is buying less for them.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Who is that ignorant Labour woman on Daily Politics? She cant speak or pronounce English properly, and actually thinks history began with her birth.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    Trump to announce he's leaving the Trump Corporation (operationally).

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/803931490514075648
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rottenborough said:

    MaxPB said:

    Dromedary said:

    Prime minister Matteo Renzi of the PD has said he will resign if the result is NO. The M5S, which backs YES, hailed Brexit and wants Italy to leave the euro. Seriously, who is going to buy the new lira? Italy's headed the way of Greece.

    I'd go on holiday to Italy and maybe look at buying an apartment on the Amalfi Coast though.
    Italy needs reform and devaluation that leaving Euro would bring. Roger Bootle:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/27/italy-needs-reform-euro-exit-inevitable/

    Premium access I'm afraid.
    I wrote an internal paper on that subject earlier in the year. I think the current value of the Lira would be around €0.65, an internal devaluation of that magnitude would destroy the Italian economy just like it has done to Greece. A controlled external devaluation and internal devaluation could achieve it within a few years. The external devaluation of the British economy is only half of the story for Brexit Britain, there are still 3-4 years of internal devaluation to manage IMO, if the nation is unable to do so then Sterling parity with USD is where we are heading IMO.
    There are a lot more problems with Italy than just the Euro!

    I suspect that if it left the Euro, it would go through a decade of high inflation, and high nominal growth, but relatively weak real growth. Which would do wonders for the Italian banking system, but would suck for savers.

    Italy's biggest issue is not the Euro, although I suspect leaving would be a net positive for the country, but it's appalling demographics, which are the worst in developed Europe. It also has an unreformed labour market, and appalling corruption, especially in the South. For this reason, it's hard to envisage an environment where it manages more than 1% real growth over the longer term.
    Yes, I wrote about that as well. Horrible infrastructure, their own domestic internal markets are among the least developed in Europe. I wrote about an example where it was easier, cheaper and more reliable for factories in northern Italy to import semi-manufactured parts from Germany and the UK than it was to bring them in from southern Italy. The reasons ranged from corruption to terrible transport infrastructure and expensive and poor quality labour in the south.

    Italy has huge long term problems, leaving the Eurozone would be papering over the cracks IMO, but it is still a necessary move. In the open market the Lira would devalue to around €0.65 which would increase the price of all imported goods to a huge degree and since Italy is a net importer of energy and commodities the only way to ensure Italian production is still viable would be to reform the labour market.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MikeK said:

    Who is that ignorant Labour woman on Daily Politics? She cant speak or pronounce English properly, and actually thinks history began with her birth.

    You mean the Shadow Education Secretary?

    Come back Lucy Powell...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @janemerrick23: Asked about having cake and eat it, PM dodges question and says it's about Britain getting best deal... which is same thing #PMQs
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Ouch
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Italy leaves(*) then technically the Euro should appreciate in value.

    Though it won't.

    (*) Starts to look that way

    No, if one of the core countries leaves the Eurozone the whole project begins to look reversible, it wouldn't be long before Greece and France follow suit which would turn the Euro into a new Deutsche Mark zone. Something which is not favourable for the Eastern nations or Spain and Portugal. If a country ever leaves the Eurozone I think it would be just a few years before the whole thing dissolves and they all revert to national currencies.
    I think that's broadly right, with one exception. I think you could continue to see a Northern European Euro - perhaps based on Germany, the Netherlands and the Baltics (support for the Euro is exceptionally strong among small countries).
    I don't know if the Baltics could survive in a DM zone, I had that at ~€1.50 compared to current value in the summer, it's probably a bit higher now. Would services exports from Tallinn make as much sense if the Euro traded at ~£1.30/$1.65, up from £0.85/$1.06? It wouldn't make sense IMO.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Ouch. ZInger from May on hapless Corbyn.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    IMF or IFS?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,995
    Slackbladder said:

    Ouch. ZInger from May on hapless Corbyn.

    What was it?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    david_herdson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Ouch. ZInger from May on hapless Corbyn.

    What was it?
    Corbyn got IFS and IMF mixed up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,917
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Italy leaves(*) then technically the Euro should appreciate in value.

    Though it won't.

    (*) Starts to look that way

    No, if one of the core countries leaves the Eurozone the whole project begins to look reversible, it wouldn't be long before Greece and France follow suit which would turn the Euro into a new Deutsche Mark zone. Something which is not favourable for the Eastern nations or Spain and Portugal. If a country ever leaves the Eurozone I think it would be just a few years before the whole thing dissolves and they all revert to national currencies.
    I think that's broadly right, with one exception. I think you could continue to see a Northern European Euro - perhaps based on Germany, the Netherlands and the Baltics (support for the Euro is exceptionally strong among small countries).
    I don't know if the Baltics could survive in a DM zone, I had that at ~€1.50 compared to current value in the summer, it's probably a bit higher now. Would services exports from Tallinn make as much sense if the Euro traded at ~£1.30/$1.65, up from £0.85/$1.06? It wouldn't make sense IMO.
    Don't forget that, ever since independence, the Baltics tied their currencies to the DM.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Scott_P said:

    MikeK said:

    Who is that ignorant Labour woman on Daily Politics? She cant speak or pronounce English properly, and actually thinks history began with her birth.

    You mean the Shadow Education Secretary?

    Come back Lucy Powell...
    "Born Angela Bowen, she attended Avondale School, Stockport, leaving school pregnant and with no qualifications."

    Perfect post-fact appointment
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,995
    On Corbyn's mixing of IFS and IMF:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/803934635294134272
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Italy leaves(*) then technically the Euro should appreciate in value.

    Though it won't.

    (*) Starts to look that way

    No, if one of the core countries leaves the Eurozone the whole project begins to look reversible, it wouldn't be long before Greece and France follow suit which would turn the Euro into a new Deutsche Mark zone. Something which is not favourable for the Eastern nations or Spain and Portugal. If a country ever leaves the Eurozone I think it would be just a few years before the whole thing dissolves and they all revert to national currencies.
    I think that's broadly right, with one exception. I think you could continue to see a Northern European Euro - perhaps based on Germany, the Netherlands and the Baltics (support for the Euro is exceptionally strong among small countries).
    I don't know if the Baltics could survive in a DM zone, I had that at ~€1.50 compared to current value in the summer, it's probably a bit higher now. Would services exports from Tallinn make as much sense if the Euro traded at ~£1.30/$1.65, up from £0.85/$1.06? It wouldn't make sense IMO.
    Don't forget that, ever since independence, the Baltics tied their currencies to the DM.
    That was at a time of German weakness though, the German economy is unbelievably strong right now and would cause a DM-zone currency to surge. I think politically you are probably correct, but economically it would be very tough for them to stay in an overvalued currency zone. If unemployment started to rise afterwards because of an export crash then the politics would probably change as well.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,126
    What are the red ribbons for that the MP's are wearing
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    Will the next change of government (maybe ten years in the future) in Scotland be SNP to Conservative?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    What are the red ribbons for that the MP's are wearing

    National/world AIDS day, I think.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,391
    https://twitter.com/justinjm1/status/803757749276471296
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    To be fair to Corbyn, the IFS and IMF are both fairly useless so easy to confuse the two.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,391
    Liberal Democrats in Richmond Park are predicting they will narrowly snatch the west London seat from Zac Goldsmith, after a campaigning blitz in which the party claimed activists spoke to more than 30,000 voters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/30/lib-dems-eye-victory-over-zac-goldsmith-richmond-park?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    Scott_P said:

    @janemerrick23: Asked about having cake and eat it, PM dodges question and says it's about Britain getting best deal... which is same thing #PMQs

    Suppose you'd prefer it if the government WASN'T trying to get the best deal for the UK? :smiley:
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,995
    GIN1138 said:

    Will the next change of government (maybe ten years in the future) in Scotland be SNP to Conservative?

    I'm sure Labour would be *delighted* to have to choose between shoring up an SNP administration that was losing popular support and a Tory one that was on the up.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/justinjm1/status/803757749276471296

    The Trump hireth and the Trump fireth.
This discussion has been closed.