Dr. Foxinsox, I think Goldsmith deserves some kudos for keeping his election promise.
And a lot of censure for making such a bloody stupid promise in the first place.
He is keeping his promise, but he's being supported by his constituency Tory party, the Tories aren't standing against him and Tory MPs are canvassing for him. It would be interesting to know whether he has access to the Tory party's canvassing records. If elected as an Independent he will no doubt vote with the Tories on everything except Heathrow. He's Independent In Name Only. It's just a gesture.
The message board was pretty anti-Trump anyway? PB.com ability to move the market surely not a big factor in the largest gambling event ever? In any case the market was very pro Clinton... Not that that made any difference. Finally... Why would Clinton campaign need to pay people to write on message boards slagging off Trump when there are so many who would do it for free!?
The USA election is just the latest example of how the PB consensus is usually wrong. Since I retired I don't gamble much and only in cash with the bookies. However, I have found it a good rule of thumb to have a few quid on the opposite of what the majority of people on this site are saying in advance of an event.
Pity really, when I first came on here in 2007 the opposite was true, and there were lots of good tips for the gee gees as well.
Well either way- at least you can still make money from reading what is written here!
I think most of us recognised that Trump was the value bet, like Brexit.
I only gave him a 10% chance from the Conventions until Monday evening before the election.
Then I revised it up at 33%, then that he won based on the national exit poll until the state exit polls came out, when everyone agreed that Trump had lost, and then back up again at around 01:30 as I realized from the results that the state exit polls were crap.
Trump's campaign was a rollercoaster right up till the last minute, just like his life, and I expect his presidency to be too.
I had Trump at around 40 per cent in election week, so backed him at 9/2 (while expecting Hillary to win, of course). I'd had a brief discussion with Plato who gave him a 60 per cent chance of victory, which I thought was overdoing it. Plato can show good insight when she is not propagandising, especially on how candidates carry themselves. But perhaps the better value was in the state betting.
Did pb get it so wrong? It relied on the polls, which were wrong, and perhaps also too much on 538 which relied on the self-same polls. Those of us who remember the complete cods of 538's World Cup were perhaps more sceptical than those who profited from Nate's Obama triumph (do we know if OGH backed Obama?). But pb had a sense Trump was value, and had a good understanding of what the results ought to have been for either candidate -- which allowed those of us who did not doze off like me to pile in on Trump as the results were mis-analysed on telly.
Dr. Foxinsox, I think Goldsmith deserves some kudos for keeping his election promise. And a lot of censure for making such a bloody stupid promise in the first place./blockquote>
It's interesting that it's Lib Dems who seem to be most confused by the concept of a politician keeping his promise. Can't think why.
Perhaps because you are a Tory,Mr Quidder. How many false promises did the Tories make, on both sides of the Referendum, in order to win. And now they have no idea what to do with the outcome.. The Tory Party is splitting before our eyes.
I had Trump at around 40 per cent in election week, so backed him at 9/2 (while expecting Hillary to win, of course). I'd had a brief discussion with Plato who gave him a 60 per cent chance of victory, which I thought was overdoing it. Plato can show good insight when she is not propagandising, especially on how candidates carry themselves. But perhaps the better value was in the state betting.
Did pb get it so wrong? It relied on the polls, which were wrong, and perhaps also too much on 538 which relied on the self-same polls. Those of us who remember the complete cods of 538's World Cup were perhaps more sceptical than those who profited from Nate's Obama triumph (do we know if OGH backed Obama?). But pb had a sense Trump was value, and had a good understanding of what the results ought to have been for either candidate -- which allowed those of us who did not doze off like me to pile in on Trump as the results were mis-analysed on telly.
We did all right.
When the first exits came in, and it looked like Florida was coming in for Hillary and Georgia was close, I thought Hillary had it in the bag.
Fortunately, it was a short lived error. Less than an hour later, the betting markets still had it as a 80-90% chance for Hillary, yet it was obvious that Donald was massively outperforming the polls. I swung my betting round - as did most on here, I suspect - and it ended up being a very profitable evening. (Albeit less profitable than the Brexit referendum.)
The PB commetariat, for all its other faults, responds very, very fast to new information.
Corbyn getting deserved stick from within Labour for his Castro comments:
"there were problems and there are problems of excesses by all regimes" but "we have to look at the thing in its totality" and Mr Castro had "seen off a lot of US presidents". But former Labour home secretary Jacqui Smith said the reason Mr Castro "'saw off' so many US presidents is because they're democratically elected".
Farron also gets the tone right:
Mr Farron said whilst he was undoubtedly a significant leader, "we must not overlook the appalling human rights abuses including brutal summary executions for which he was responsible".
Lib Dems seem pretty bullish and confident. Is there something going on we are unaware of or is it a con?
Lots of pictures on the social media today of Mr Goldsmith wandering around aimlessly and friendless. Equally, lots of pictures of hundreds of motivated Lib Dems campaigning hard in Richmond Park. There isn`t really much point in voting for Mr Goldsmith.
Perhaps the message is getting through.
The betting still looks good for Zac.
I think a low turnout Zac win.
Shadsy has 5/1 on Zac majority less than 2500. I think that is reasonable value, what with this being a pointless vanity byelection.
As someone who lives near by, and was actually in Richmond today...
Locally there is no sense that this was a pointless by-election. The threat of it put a hold on the third runway for years. It also strengthened the hand of the group of West London MPs who oppose the runway. Even opponents of Zac compliment him on not selling out.
This is an excellent example of people not wanting to understand the point of view of their opponents. The anti-runway protests are based on decades of lies, under hand behaviour and out right dirty tricks by the owners of Heathrow. It's not even the third runway itself - it's about halting Heathrow's infinite expansion. If Zac wins it will be seen as reinforcing that block of West London MPs.
Saying that the MP should have done "the right thing" and sold his support in return for a minor political office - typical behaviour for politicians in this matter of the years - misses the fact that actual people oppose this.
I know that these people are opposing The Will Of The Managerial Class - and so are racist scum to dealt with like lice - but you might want to try and understand their point of view.
No, I am mildly pro-runway, just note that Byelections have lower turnouts than GE, turnouts being even lower in winter. By-elections brought about by deaths in office tend to bring out a feeling of sympathy. Ones brought about by resignation or scandal tend to produce a swing against the incumbent. When some parties do not stand their voters are less inclined to turnout, many voters not being as politically nerdish as ourselves.
All of these factors tend to depress the turnout and the vote for Zac. The fact that I am an LD is a secondary consideration, as is my dislike of Zac as a superannuated Gap year dilettante who rarely bothers to turn up in Parliament because of the silver spoon in his mouth. I wish him out of Parliament, but expect him to be returned with a small majority, hence the value in the tip.
All very interesting, but doesn't this headline from The Daily Telegraph warrant a thread?
" Donald Trump ally backs free trade deal with Britain to show America's 'solidarity with our indispensable ally'
The thing is South Korea, Australia, and Japan are all indispensable allies to the US.
And there will never be a deal more advantageous to the US than the TPP.
Can we get a free trade deal with America under Trump?
Probably.
Will it be any "kinder" than the TPP, which would require us to lose all sovereignty in areas such as intellectual property law, and require us to have domestic laws subject to US ISDS tribunals?
I doubt it.
Is there any reason, other than multinationals lobbying hard for it, that a trade deal *needs* to have all that stuff? Could a deal not just be implemented whereby tariffs were lifted?
Of course not; but the point is that when the US opens up its markets, it comes with a price.
They know that between big and small countries, when it comes to trade or anything else, it is the smaller country that makes the concessions.
No, I am mildly pro-runway, just note that Byelections have lower turnouts than GE, turnouts being even lower in winter. By-elections brought about by deaths in office tend to bring out a feeling of sympathy. Ones brought about by resignation or scandal tend to produce a swing against the incumbent. When some parties do not stand their voters are less inclined to turnout, many voters not being as politically nerdish as ourselves.
All of these factors tend to depress the turnout and the vote for Zac. The fact that I am an LD is a secondary consideration, as is my dislike of Zac as a superannuated Gap year dilettante who rarely bothers to turn up in Parliament because of the silver spoon in his mouth. I wish him out of Parliament, but expect him to be returned with a small majority, hence the value in the tip.
Your prejudice showing there Mr Fox.
He doesn't turn up to Parliament because he's a self-entitled prat. There are other MPs as well off as him who work very hard for their constituents.
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
I had Trump at around 40 per cent in election week, so backed him at 9/2 (while expecting Hillary to win, of course). I'd had a brief discussion with Plato who gave him a 60 per cent chance of victory, which I thought was overdoing it. Plato can show good insight when she is not propagandising, especially on how candidates carry themselves. But perhaps the better value was in the state betting.
Did pb get it so wrong? It relied on the polls, which were wrong, and perhaps also too much on 538 which relied on the self-same polls. Those of us who remember the complete cods of 538's World Cup were perhaps more sceptical than those who profited from Nate's Obama triumph (do we know if OGH backed Obama?). But pb had a sense Trump was value, and had a good understanding of what the results ought to have been for either candidate -- which allowed those of us who did not doze off like me to pile in on Trump as the results were mis-analysed on telly.
We did all right.
When the first exits came in, and it looked like Florida was coming in for Hillary and Georgia was close, I thought Hillary had it in the bag.
Fortunately, it was a short lived error. Less than an hour later, the betting markets still had it as a 80-90% chance for Hillary, yet it was obvious that Donald was massively outperforming the polls. I swung my betting round - as did most on here, I suspect - and it ended up being a very profitable evening. (Albeit less profitable than the Brexit referendum.)
The PB commetariat, for all its other faults, responds very, very fast to new information.
I agree, the information pre election day was that Trump was losing in states he needed to win even if it was close.Then when Florida started to happen PB reacted faster than a whippet on poppers.
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
Feel free also to opine also on things you don't know about. The rest of us do.
No, I am mildly pro-runway, just note that Byelections have lower turnouts than GE, turnouts being even lower in winter. By-elections brought about by deaths in office tend to bring out a feeling of sympathy. Ones brought about by resignation or scandal tend to produce a swing against the incumbent. When some parties do not stand their voters are less inclined to turnout, many voters not being as politically nerdish as ourselves.
All of these factors tend to depress the turnout and the vote for Zac. The fact that I am an LD is a secondary consideration, as is my dislike of Zac as a superannuated Gap year dilettante who rarely bothers to turn up in Parliament because of the silver spoon in his mouth. I wish him out of Parliament, but expect him to be returned with a small majority, hence the value in the tip.
Your prejudice showing there Mr Fox.
He doesn't turn up to Parliament because he's a self-entitled prat. There are other MPs as well off as him who work very hard for their constituents.
He is a self entitled prat because he has never had to work at a proper job in his life because of the silver spoon in his mouth. There are some people who manage to overcome this disability, but he does not have the strength of character to do so.
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
It's a good value bet. I'm on as well.
I think I'm about 70% of the bets on Macron on Betfair...
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
A lurking Balrog? Seems unlikely!
(By the way most people don't limit themselves to topics they actually know about)
No, I am mildly pro-runway, just note that Byelections have lower turnouts than GE, turnouts being even lower in winter. By-elections brought about by deaths in office tend to bring out a feeling of sympathy. Ones brought about by resignation or scandal tend to produce a swing against the incumbent. When some parties do not stand their voters are less inclined to turnout, many voters not being as politically nerdish as ourselves.
All of these factors tend to depress the turnout and the vote for Zac. The fact that I am an LD is a secondary consideration, as is my dislike of Zac as a superannuated Gap year dilettante who rarely bothers to turn up in Parliament because of the silver spoon in his mouth. I wish him out of Parliament, but expect him to be returned with a small majority, hence the value in the tip.
Your prejudice showing there Mr Fox.
He doesn't turn up to Parliament because he's a self-entitled prat. There are other MPs as well off as him who work very hard for their constituents.
He is a self entitled prat because he has never had to work at a proper job in his life because of the silver spoon in his mouth. There are some people who manage to overcome this disability, but he does not have the strength of character to do so.
But it's weakness of character not wealth that is the problem.
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
It's a good value bet. I'm on as well.
I think I'm about 70% of the bets on Macron on Betfair...
Lol, I don't understand why there is so little movement though, 9-11 is probably about right for Macron and yet 20-25 keeps being matched.
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
It's a good value bet. I'm on as well.
I think I'm about 70% of the bets on Macron on Betfair...
If anyone thinks they can pick the Socialist candidate you can find even better value. I'm 99.9% sure it won't be Hollande. His chance of clinging on to the nomination died along with Sarkozy's.
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
It's a good value bet. I'm on as well.
I think I'm about 70% of the bets on Macron on Betfair...
Lol, I don't understand why there is so little movement though, 9-11 is probably about right for Macron and yet 20-25 keeps being matched.
Assume Hollande is not the Socialist candidate and then recalculate what Macron's odds should be. The Betfair market is really too thin...
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
It's a good value bet. I'm on as well.
I think I'm about 70% of the bets on Macron on Betfair...
We're all on Macron.
But someone somewhere is laying significant amounts on him.
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
It's a good value bet. I'm on as well.
I think I'm about 70% of the bets on Macron on Betfair...
Lol, I don't understand why there is so little movement though, 9-11 is probably about right for Macron and yet 20-25 keeps being matched.
Assume Hollande is not the Socialist candidate and then recalculate what Macron's odds should be. The Betfair market is really too thin...
It is worth noting that populist movements of the left as well as the right have done well recently in other countries in economic doldrums. The Communists or Socialists could well slip through the middle to make the second round.
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
It's a good value bet. I'm on as well.
I think I'm about 70% of the bets on Macron on Betfair...
Lol, I don't understand why there is so little movement though, 9-11 is probably about right for Macron and yet 20-25 keeps being matched.
Assume Hollande is not the Socialist candidate and then recalculate what Macron's odds should be. The Betfair market is really too thin...
It is worth noting that populist movements of the left as well as the right have done well recently in other countries in economic doldrums. The Communists or Socialists could well slip through the middle to make the second round.
Entirely possible. I think there will also be a protest vote boost for Marine Le Pen in the first round which could contribute to an unexpected candidate making the run off.
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
A lurking Balrog? Seems unlikely!
(By the way most people don't limit themselves to topics they actually know about)
Wasn't lurking in Moria precisely what the Balrog did until awakened?
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
A lurking Balrog? Seems unlikely!
(By the way most people don't limit themselves to topics they actually know about)
Wasn't lurking in Moria precisely what the Balrog did until awakened?
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
It's a good value bet. I'm on as well.
I think I'm about 70% of the bets on Macron on Betfair...
Lol, I don't understand why there is so little movement though, 9-11 is probably about right for Macron and yet 20-25 keeps being matched.
Assume Hollande is not the Socialist candidate and then recalculate what Macron's odds should be. The Betfair market is really too thin...
It is worth noting that populist movements of the left as well as the right have done well recently in other countries in economic doldrums. The Communists or Socialists could well slip through the middle to make the second round.
Entirely possible. I think there will also be a protest vote boost for Marine Le Pen in the first round which could contribute to an unexpected candidate making the run off.
Though MLP seems nailed on for the second round, and therefore probably some value.
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
A lurking Balrog? Seems unlikely!
(By the way most people don't limit themselves to topics they actually know about)
Wasn't lurking in Moria precisely what the Balrog did until awakened?
I thought it was sleeping?
Yes, sleeping. Until the dwarves woke him by mining.
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
A lurking Balrog? Seems unlikely!
(By the way most people don't limit themselves to topics they actually know about)
Wasn't lurking in Moria precisely what the Balrog did until awakened?
I thought it was sleeping?
Yes, sleeping. Until the dwarves woke him by mining.
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
It's a good value bet. I'm on as well.
I think I'm about 70% of the bets on Macron on Betfair...
Lol, I don't understand why there is so little movement though, 9-11 is probably about right for Macron and yet 20-25 keeps being matched.
God,i hope I haven't been hitting lay by accident...
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
A lurking Balrog? Seems unlikely!
(By the way most people don't limit themselves to topics they actually know about)
Wasn't lurking in Moria precisely what the Balrog did until awakened?
I thought it was sleeping?
Lurking schmurking, sleeping schleeping.
'It survived the defeat of Morgoth in the War of Wrath and escaped to hide beneath the Misty Mountains.[43] For more than five millennia, the Balrog remained in its deep hiding place at the roots of Caradhras,[44] one of the Mountains of Moria, until in the Third Age the mithril-miners of the Dwarf-kingdom of Khazad-dûm disturbed it (or released it from its prison) in T.A. 1980. The Balrog promptly killed Durin VI, the King of Khazad-dûm, whereafter it was called Durin's Bane by the Dwarves.
..During the reign of Thráin II, the Dwarves attempted to retake Moria in the War of the Dwarves and Orcs, culminating in the Battle of Azanulbizar before the eastern gate of Moria in T.A. 2799. This was a victory for the Dwarves, but the presence of the Balrog prevented them from reoccupying Moria. Dáin Ironfoot, having slain the Orc Azog near the gate, perceived the terror of the Balrog within[43] and warned Thráin that Moria was unachievable until some force could change the world and remove the Balrog.'
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
A lurking Balrog? Seems unlikely!
(By the way most people don't limit themselves to topics they actually know about)
Wasn't lurking in Moria precisely what the Balrog did until awakened?
I thought it was sleeping?
Lurking schmurking, sleeping schleeping.
'It survived the defeat of Morgoth in the War of Wrath and escaped to hide beneath the Misty Mountains.[43] For more than five millennia, the Balrog remained in its deep hiding place at the roots of Caradhras,[44] one of the Mountains of Moria, until in the Third Age the mithril-miners of the Dwarf-kingdom of Khazad-dûm disturbed it (or released it from its prison) in T.A. 1980. The Balrog promptly killed Durin VI, the King of Khazad-dûm, whereafter it was called Durin's Bane by the Dwarves.
..During the reign of Thráin II, the Dwarves attempted to retake Moria in the War of the Dwarves and Orcs, culminating in the Battle of Azanulbizar before the eastern gate of Moria in T.A. 2799. This was a victory for the Dwarves, but the presence of the Balrog prevented them from reoccupying Moria. Dáin Ironfoot, having slain the Orc Azog near the gate, perceived the terror of the Balrog within[43] and warned Thráin that Moria was unachievable until some force could change the world and remove the Balrog.'
We need post-primary polling for the first round to assess its impact.
It s almost certain Fillon will gain at least in the short term compared to earlier polls when he was not yet seen as a credible candidate. Macron should also benefit from the current uncertainty and division on the left.
Yesterday yet another former Hollande minister declared her candidacy: Sylvia Pinel from the Party of left-wing Radicals (^ a very very centrist outfit despite its name).
It's a minor blow for Macron as some members of that party advocated supporting him. They have a pretty large network of local councilors and mayors that could have contributed to the necessary 500 supports from elected people needed to be accepted as a candidate. Macron will probably get his 500 but the socialists will make Sure he has to work for it.
Remember, Hollande or not, the socialists will have a candidate and Macron will be one of its main targets.
We need post-primary polling for the first round to assess its impact.
It s almost certain Fillon will gain at least in the short term compared to earlier polls when he was not yet seen as a credible candidate. Macron should also benefit from the current uncertainty and division on the left.
Yesterday yet another former Hollande minister declared her candidacy: Sylvia Pinel from the Party of left-wing Radicals (^ a very very centrist outfit despite its name).
It's a minor blow for Macron as some members of that party advocated supporting him. They have a pretty large network of local councilors and mayors that could have contributed to the necessary 500 supports from elected people needed to be accepted as a candidate. Macron will probably get his 500 but the socialists will make Sure he has to work for it.
Remember, Hollande or not, the socialists will have a candidate and Macron will be one of its main targets.
That is an opportunity and a threat for the Macron. If he is the credible centre left candidate, then they will have successfully sent their voters to him.
The centre-right would have to make a series of quite serious mistakes over the next few months to give Le Pen a sniff of victory. But after the last few months anything could happen.
Well after what must be at least 7 years lurking, probably for more hours most days than I want to think about, and posting one comment previously about a topic I actually knew about, I've finally decided to place my first ever bet! Macron at 21 on Betfair exchange...
A lurking Balrog? Seems unlikely!
(By the way most people don't limit themselves to topics they actually know about)
Wasn't lurking in Moria precisely what the Balrog did until awakened?
I thought it was sleeping?
Lurking schmurking, sleeping schleeping.
'It survived the defeat of Morgoth in the War of Wrath and escaped to hide beneath the Misty Mountains.[43] For more than five millennia, the Balrog remained in its deep hiding place at the roots of Caradhras,[44] one of the Mountains of Moria, until in the Third Age the mithril-miners of the Dwarf-kingdom of Khazad-dûm disturbed it (or released it from its prison) in T.A. 1980. The Balrog promptly killed Durin VI, the King of Khazad-dûm, whereafter it was called Durin's Bane by the Dwarves.
..During the reign of Thráin II, the Dwarves attempted to retake Moria in the War of the Dwarves and Orcs, culminating in the Battle of Azanulbizar before the eastern gate of Moria in T.A. 2799. This was a victory for the Dwarves, but the presence of the Balrog prevented them from reoccupying Moria. Dáin Ironfoot, having slain the Orc Azog near the gate, perceived the terror of the Balrog within[43] and warned Thráin that Moria was unachievable until some force could change the world and remove the Balrog.'
LOL! You so had to be right you actually bothered to Google that
I read LOTR at least once a year between the the ages of eight & sixteen and the journey through Moria was probably my favourite part of the book(s), so I knew I was right. Of course unlike many on here I know mere assertion is no substitute for actual references.
I wouldn't normally bother PB with a Will Hutton article as he is a Remoaners in Chief. But I think this is a pithy summary of the politics if Brexit goes wrong. And he ain't predicting a swing back to Remain either.
Don't suppose that poisonous twunt Staines has an iota of empirical evidence to back his statement up, but who needs evidence when you're a vapid shitstirrer.
I see Sturgeon is to become the first Head of Government to address the Irish Seanad. I can't imagine what historical significance either side is alluding to in that optic. Dark Days. You were warned.
Don't suppose that poisonous twunt Staines has an iota of empirical evidence to back his statement up, but who needs evidence when you're a vapid shitstirrer.
Granted I was a teenager when Mrs Thatcher became PM, but I honestly don't recall the summary executions.
Don't suppose that poisonous twunt Staines has an iota of empirical evidence to back his statement up, but who needs evidence when you're a vapid shitstirrer.
what do you need "evidence" for if its true statement,, its not as tho' there is any doubt,,, watch the news yourself
I see Sturgeon is to become the first Head of Government to address the Irish Seanad. I can't imagine what historical significance either side is alluding to in that optic. Dark Days. You were warned.
I'm glad she's found a country that will give her the time of day - we've all been spared her state visit to Guernsey.
I wouldn't normally bother PB with a Will Hutton article as he is a Remoaners in Chief. But I think this is a pithy summary of the politics if Brexit goes wrong. And he ain't predicting a swing back to Remain either.
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
What i find funny is Blairs comment that he wants to provide a home for those that are "politically homeless" without the the self awareness he made them homeless.
I see Sturgeon is to become the first Head of Government to address the Irish Seanad. I can't imagine what historical significance either side is alluding to in that optic. Dark Days. You were warned.
I'm glad she's found a country that will give her the time of day - we've all been spared her state visit to Guernsey.
Our Chief Minister is brown nosing her at the moment hoping to get a bit of Axis of Evil anti-Brexit thing going on between the colonies.
Don't suppose that poisonous twunt Staines has an iota of empirical evidence to back his statement up, but who needs evidence when you're a vapid shitstirrer.
Granted I was a teenager when Mrs Thatcher became PM, but I honestly don't recall the summary executions.
How about the IRA freedom fighters shot dead in Gibraltar
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
*runs and hides*
Pinochet wasn't a despot. He saved his country and was a true patriot.
Don't suppose that poisonous twunt Staines has an iota of empirical evidence to back his statement up, but who needs evidence when you're a vapid shitstirrer.
Granted I was a teenager when Mrs Thatcher became PM, but I honestly don't recall the summary executions.
What i find funny is Blairs comment that he wants to provide a home for those that are "politically homeless" without the the self awareness he made them homeless.
Blair is self aware in the same way that fungus is conscious.
Don't suppose that poisonous twunt Staines has an iota of empirical evidence to back his statement up, but who needs evidence when you're a vapid shitstirrer.
Granted I was a teenager when Mrs Thatcher became PM, but I honestly don't recall the summary executions.
They were hushed up
I think they only happened in Scotland, hence the fall off in Tory support under Thatcher.
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
Don't suppose that poisonous twunt Staines has an iota of empirical evidence to back his statement up, but who needs evidence when you're a vapid shitstirrer.
Granted I was a teenager when Mrs Thatcher became PM, but I honestly don't recall the summary executions.
That was the real reason why British Rail was so shite in the early '80s. They were overwhelmed by the task of moving thousands of cattle trucks full of Lefties every day to forced labour camps.
Don't suppose that poisonous twunt Staines has an iota of empirical evidence to back his statement up, but who needs evidence when you're a vapid shitstirrer.
Granted I was a teenager when Mrs Thatcher became PM, but I honestly don't recall the summary executions.
She was fulsome in her praise and support for Pinochet as I remember, and there were a fair disappearances and executions in his Chile . But in any case I'm not arguing what Castro did, what annoys me is the making comparisons about the BBC's coverage that can't realistically be evaluated but that are solely designed to keep the keyboard warriors all frothed up.
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
*runs and hides*
Pinochet wasn't a despot. He saved his country and was a true patriot.
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
*runs and hides*
Pinochet wasn't a despot. He saved his country and was a true patriot.
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
*runs and hides*
IIRC Maggie admired Pinochet because when some UK soldiers' helicopter crash landed near the Argentine/Chile border the Chileans protected them.
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
*runs and hides*
Pinochet wasn't a despot. He saved his country and was a true patriot.
Don't suppose that poisonous twunt Staines has an iota of empirical evidence to back his statement up, but who needs evidence when you're a vapid shitstirrer.
Granted I was a teenager when Mrs Thatcher became PM, but I honestly don't recall the summary executions.
How about the IRA freedom fighters shot dead in Gibraltar
Terrorists killed whilst preparing to murder people. TSE not only are you pompous you are also without the ability to distuinguish between self defence and an execution.
Don't suppose that poisonous twunt Staines has an iota of empirical evidence to back his statement up, but who needs evidence when you're a vapid shitstirrer.
Granted I was a teenager when Mrs Thatcher became PM, but I honestly don't recall the summary executions.
How about the IRA freedom fighters shot dead in Gibraltar
Terrorists killed whilst preparing to murder people. TSE not only are you pompous you are also without the ability to distuinguish between self defence and an execution.
You sir are someone lacking intelligence, but someone without the ability to spot sarcasm.
Don't suppose that poisonous twunt Staines has an iota of empirical evidence to back his statement up, but who needs evidence when you're a vapid shitstirrer.
Granted I was a teenager when Mrs Thatcher became PM, but I honestly don't recall the summary executions.
That was the real reason why British Rail was so shite in the early '80s. They were overwhelmed by the task of moving thousands of cattle trucks full of Lefties every day to forced labour camps.
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
*runs and hides*
Pinochet wasn't a despot. He saved his country and was a true patriot.
No he was a murdering fuckwit who had thousands executed. That his opponents might not have been very nice either is beside the point. Pinochet was little different to Castro or many other despots in his tactics and the fact that Britain supported him in any way is repugnant.
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
*runs and hides*
Pinochet wasn't a despot. He saved his country and was a true patriot.
He might have been a patriot, but plenty of people disappeared on his watch. We must judge our friends by the same standards as our enemies.
Don't suppose that poisonous twunt Staines has an iota of empirical evidence to back his statement up, but who needs evidence when you're a vapid shitstirrer.
Granted I was a teenager when Mrs Thatcher became PM, but I honestly don't recall the summary executions.
How about the IRA freedom fighters shot dead in Gibraltar
Terrorists killed whilst preparing to murder people. TSE not only are you pompous you are also without the ability to distuinguish between self defence and an execution.
You sir are someone lacking intelligence, but someone without the ability to spot sarcasm.
I always wonder with you whether you deliberatley post obtuse comments to stimulate comment or whether you are genuinely stupid. I think the the latter.
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
*runs and hides*
Pinochet wasn't a despot. He saved his country and was a true patriot.
He might have been a patriot, but plenty of people disappeared on his watch. We must judge our friends by the same standards as our enemies.
Don't suppose that poisonous twunt Staines has an iota of empirical evidence to back his statement up, but who needs evidence when you're a vapid shitstirrer.
Granted I was a teenager when Mrs Thatcher became PM, but I honestly don't recall the summary executions.
How about the IRA freedom fighters shot dead in Gibraltar
Terrorists killed whilst preparing to murder people. TSE not only are you pompous you are also without the ability to distuinguish between self defence and an execution.
You sir are someone lacking intelligence, but someone without the ability to spot sarcasm.
I always wonder with you whether you deliberatley post obtuse comments to stimulate comment or whether you are genuinely stupid. I think the the latter.
It's called looking at both sides of the argument, as part of my day job, I have to anticipate what the other side plan to say and do.
Not everyone is helpful as some and send their entire strategy document in Microsoft Word, replete with track changes.
Surely a point that must be considered is that with Pinochet a vital national interest (Falklands) was at stake. Whether this makes working with him acceptable or not, I don't know. Thatcher obviously felt it did. I am a realist in international politics - one of my main bugbears about our morally questionable Middle East policy is that it doesn't actually HELP Britain.
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
*runs and hides*
Pinochet wasn't a despot. He saved his country and was a true patriot.
He might have been a patriot, but plenty of people disappeared on his watch. We must judge our friends by the same standards as our enemies.
Why?
Because if you don't then you are a hypocrite. Actually you should hold your friends to higher standards than your enemies.
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
*runs and hides*
Pinochet wasn't a despot. He saved his country and was a true patriot.
He might have been a patriot, but plenty of people disappeared on his watch. We must judge our friends by the same standards as our enemies.
Doesn't sound like a strategy for keeping many friends.
Surely a point that must be considered is that with Pinochet a vital national interest (Falklands) was at stake. Whether this makes working with him acceptable or not, I don't know. Thatcher obviously felt it did. I am a realist in international politics - one of my main bugbears about our morally questionable Middle East policy is that it doesn't actually HELP Britain.
Indeed. A country has interests, not friends. I'm not bothered about the morally questionable bit so long as there is actually a useful goal or strategic interest on the table.
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
*runs and hides*
Pinochet wasn't a despot. He saved his country and was a true patriot.
He might have been a patriot, but plenty of people disappeared on his watch. We must judge our friends by the same standards as our enemies.
Why?
Castro could have been America's friend in 1960 if Eisenhower hadn't snubbed him when he (Castro) visited the States in April 1959.
"Supporters have praised him for bringing social advances to Cuba, while critics have highlighted his government's repression and alleged human rights violations"
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
Maggie had her own favorite Latin American despot - Pinochet!
Comments
Did pb get it so wrong? It relied on the polls, which were wrong, and perhaps also too much on 538 which relied on the self-same polls. Those of us who remember the complete cods of 538's World Cup were perhaps more sceptical than those who profited from Nate's Obama triumph (do we know if OGH backed Obama?). But pb had a sense Trump was value, and had a good understanding of what the results ought to have been for either candidate -- which allowed those of us who did not doze off like me to pile in on Trump as the results were mis-analysed on telly.
We did all right.
https://twitter.com/kenvogel/status/802605718901661696
Fortunately, it was a short lived error. Less than an hour later, the betting markets still had it as a 80-90% chance for Hillary, yet it was obvious that Donald was massively outperforming the polls. I swung my betting round - as did most on here, I suspect - and it ended up being a very profitable evening. (Albeit less profitable than the Brexit referendum.)
The PB commetariat, for all its other faults, responds very, very fast to new information.
"there were problems and there are problems of excesses by all regimes" but "we have to look at the thing in its totality" and Mr Castro had "seen off a lot of US presidents".
But former Labour home secretary Jacqui Smith said the reason Mr Castro "'saw off' so many US presidents is because they're democratically elected".
Farron also gets the tone right:
Mr Farron said whilst he was undoubtedly a significant leader, "we must not overlook the appalling human rights abuses including brutal summary executions for which he was responsible".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38117068
All of these factors tend to depress the turnout and the vote for Zac. The fact that I am an LD is a secondary consideration, as is my dislike of Zac as a superannuated Gap year dilettante who rarely bothers to turn up in Parliament because of the silver spoon in his mouth. I wish him out of Parliament, but expect him to be returned with a small majority, hence the value in the tip.
He doesn't turn up to Parliament because he's a self-entitled prat. There are other MPs as well off as him who work very hard for their constituents.
(By the way most people don't limit themselves to topics they actually know about)
But someone somewhere is laying significant amounts on him.
Does someone somewhere know something ?
Just watched Star Trek Beyond.
Oh dear. Oh dear. Oh dear.
Yes. Fracking is dangerous.
It was the rural Florida counties that told you what the result was going to be.
(Just enjoyed Romancing the Stone... It's aged relatively well.)
Now that is near the knuckle humour.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3974512/Fury-Jeremy-Corbyn-EU-president-Jean-Claude-Juncker-praise-dead-Fidel-Castro-s-heroism.html
At this rate, Jezza will end up praising the former Crewe Alex youth coach for his outstanding record of talent development!
The first two were enjoyable.
The third? Chase scenes. CGI. Explosions.
No plot development.
Very occasional humorous line.
Corbyn and the BBC hand in hand.
"Alleged" human rights violations.....he imprisoned his own people on an island! Go and ask all those lucky enough who managed to escape to Florida. I have...
'It survived the defeat of Morgoth in the War of Wrath and escaped to hide beneath the Misty Mountains.[43] For more than five millennia, the Balrog remained in its deep hiding place at the roots of Caradhras,[44] one of the Mountains of Moria, until in the Third Age the mithril-miners of the Dwarf-kingdom of Khazad-dûm disturbed it (or released it from its prison) in T.A. 1980. The Balrog promptly killed Durin VI, the King of Khazad-dûm, whereafter it was called Durin's Bane by the Dwarves.
..During the reign of Thráin II, the Dwarves attempted to retake Moria in the War of the Dwarves and Orcs, culminating in the Battle of Azanulbizar before the eastern gate of Moria in T.A. 2799. This was a victory for the Dwarves, but the presence of the Balrog prevented them from reoccupying Moria. Dáin Ironfoot, having slain the Orc Azog near the gate, perceived the terror of the Balrog within[43] and warned Thráin that Moria was unachievable until some force could change the world and remove the Balrog.'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balrog
It s almost certain Fillon will gain at least in the short term compared to earlier polls when he was not yet seen as a credible candidate.
Macron should also benefit from the current uncertainty and division on the left.
Yesterday yet another former Hollande minister declared her candidacy: Sylvia Pinel from the Party of left-wing Radicals (^ a very very centrist outfit despite its name).
It's a minor blow for Macron as some members of that party advocated supporting him. They have a pretty large network of local councilors and mayors that could have contributed to the necessary 500 supports from elected people needed to be accepted as a candidate.
Macron will probably get his 500 but the socialists will make Sure he has to work for it.
Remember, Hollande or not, the socialists will have a candidate and Macron will be one of its main targets.
Possibly the word we're looking for here is ... dormant.
- Terry Pratchett
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/26/theresa-may-fight-brexiters-britain-ruined?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/26/lib-dems-richmond-byelection-sarah-olney-eu-caroline-lucas-green-party-article-50?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/26/new-attempt-to-bring-tony-blair-to-book-over-iraq?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
*runs and hides*
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-real-syria-civil-defence-exposes-natos-white-helmets-as-terrorist-linked-imposters/5547528
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/807599.stm
I can't be arsed to click on it. Give me a synopsis if you can be arsed.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/how-thatcher-helped-pol-pot/5330873
And armed Jihadis in Aghanistan:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/8215187/National-Archives-Britain-agreed-secret-deal-to-back-Mujahideen.html
And it is not only in banana republics that the prime ministers son receives commision from arms deals brokered by his mother:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/mark-thatcher-accused-sources-say-he-got-12m-pounds-from-arms-deal-signed-by-his-mother-1441851.html?amp
Sure, Castro took power in a coup against a mafia backed dictator at the height of the cold war, but in that conflict few leaders had clean hands.
Politics, like war, breeds strange allies.
Cf Uncle Joe Stalin
I think the the latter.
Not everyone is helpful as some and send their entire strategy document in Microsoft Word, replete with track changes.
I'm not bothered about the morally questionable bit so long as there is actually a useful goal or strategic interest on the table.
(TSE already mentioned Uncle Joe!)
Predatory States: Operation Condor and Covert War in Latin America
I went through a phase of reading a bunch of books on the Cold War in Latin America.