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Perhaps the message is getting through.
The message board was pretty anti-Trump anyway?
PB.com ability to move the market surely not a big factor in the largest gambling event ever?
In any case the market was very pro Clinton... Not that that made any difference.
Finally... Why would Clinton campaign need to pay people to write on message boards slagging off Trump when there are so many who would do it for free!?
Betting PostF1: the last pre-race piece of the year is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/abu-dhabi-pre-race-2016.html
The bet within is one that regular readers may be able to guess.
Pity really, when I first came on here in 2007 the opposite was true, and there were lots of good tips for the gee gees as well.
But it'll still be my best ever season. Despite getting almost everything wrong.
Are you a modern, inclusive, diversity-approving and LGBTQIA-sensitive person?
Kingdom Asunder is the novel for you.
As well as boasting multiple female protagonists and an in-depth portrayal of the inherent masculine violence endemic in patriarchy, there are numerous sensitive depictions of characters of non-binary gender, disability, lesbianism and transvestitism.
Are you an old-fashioned, no-nonsense Conservative?
Kingdom Asunder is the novel for you.
Delight in the glorious bloodshed as the conflicting sides are matched in a battle of wits and steel. Welcome to a world where the health & safety executive would have a broadsword shoved up its bunghole and the closest thing to an all-woman shortlist is a lesbian’s carnal menu.
Are you a Liberal Democrat?
Kingdom Asunder is the novel for you.
Enjoy the escapism of 2016’s most fantastic story, replete with characters from multiple ethnicities all working together on a common cause*. There’s a whole race of vegetarians, coupled with a metropolitan cocktail of English, French, German and Welsh references.
*The common cause being to kill everyone on the other side.
Are you a Labour supporter?
Kingdom Asunder is the novel for you.
Hark back to the terrible days of class hierarchy and subservience of the proletariat and marvel at how terrible things were before socialism. See how the arrogance and violence of the wealthy few causes untold suffering to the working man, and be glad you live in more enlightened times.
Are you none of the above?
Kingdom Asunder is the novel for you.
The grim reality of warfare and power politics is effortlessly portrayed through morally grey characters, with an emphasis on gritty realism and the fractious relationships that are hallmarks of real life. Treachery, brutality and a ruthless streak a mile wide make this the most compelling novel of the year.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Kingdom-Asunder-Bloody-Crown-Trilogy-ebook/dp/B01N8UF799/
Shadsy has 5/1 on Zac majority less than 2500. I think that is reasonable value, what with this being a pointless vanity byelection.
And a lot of censure for making such a bloody stupid promise in the first place.
For what it's worth, here is my Nate Silver type 1,000 simulations of the RP majorities.
Zac >5000 108 10.8%
Zac >2500 402 40.2%
Zac > 1000 579 57.9%
Zac > 500 649 64.9%
Zac >0 710 71.0%
Sar > 0 290 29.0%
Sar>500 232 23.2%
Sar>1000 164 16.4%
Sar>2500 21 2.1%
Sar>5000 0 0.0%
I heard last night that CCHQ's estimate is a 4,000-5,000 majority for Zac based on canvass returns - but what do they know. They are not involved.
I think Zac is now playing a "poor me" sympathy game. "I did the honorable thing and those horrid LibDems are being nasty to me".
Edit: My simulation shows Zac with a 31.2% chance of a majority less than 2,500. 2/1 against.
I would be quite surprised if he lost.
Which means I'm forecasting low turnout and 1-3,000 for Zac.
How so?
Well I can't see how a mainstream conservative Republican could possibly have won the rust belt states that Trump won. Cruz might have won Florida, NC and the popular vote but lost the electoral college to Hillary.
I would love to see Olney in, but think it will be close but no cigar.
" Donald Trump ally backs free trade deal with Britain to show America's 'solidarity with our indispensable ally'
https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/802533873770962945
And he is absolutely right.
Corbyn calls him a huge figure: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38117068
What can you say? Idiot is too kind.
By a phooqing Brexiter, the ignominy, the SHAME
But at the end of the day- paying someone to post on a forum where almost no one can vote just doesn't seem like something any campaign would do.
No way Ted Cruz would have won the popular vote.
Gushing, absolutely gushing.
It's difficult to get the right tone here. Castro was a world-historical figure, but an enemy of the West, and ran a repressive regime.
Corbyn didn't even try to strike a balance. He was clearly upset at the death of a personal hero.
The EU's VAT nonsense aimed at apparently hitting firms like Amazon has worked about as well as one might expect...
The primaries are still a good indicator at which states and demographics candidates would have a problem.
The only thing that stuck out was Arizona, Trump didn't do well there despite winning the primary easily (though McCain and Flake were against him all the way) , and Wisconsin where Trump did badly but still won in the general (with less support from Waukesha county though).
It's like they had a secret plan to win the popular vote but lose the election anyway.
Anyway, I'm off now. My pre-race ramble is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/abu-dhabi-pre-race-2016.html
And there will never be a deal more advantageous to the US than the TPP.
Can we get a free trade deal with America under Trump?
Probably.
Will it be any "kinder" than the TPP, which would require us to lose all sovereignty in areas such as intellectual property law, and require us to have domestic laws subject to US ISDS tribunals?
I doubt it.
Locally there is no sense that this was a pointless by-election. The threat of it put a hold on the third runway for years. It also strengthened the hand of the group of West London MPs who oppose the runway. Even opponents of Zac compliment him on not selling out.
This is an excellent example of people not wanting to understand the point of view of their opponents. The anti-runway protests are based on decades of lies, under hand behaviour and out right dirty tricks by the owners of Heathrow. It's not even the third runway itself - it's about halting Heathrow's infinite expansion. If Zac wins it will be seen as reinforcing that block of West London MPs.
Saying that the MP should have done "the right thing" and sold his support in return for a minor political office - typical behaviour for politicians in this matter of the years - misses the fact that actual people oppose this.
I know that these people are opposing The Will Of The Managerial Class - and so are racist scum to dealt with like lice - but you might want to try and understand their point of view.
Then I revised it up at 33%, then that he won based on the national exit poll until the state exit polls came out, when everyone agreed that Trump had lost, and then back up again at around 01:30 as I realized from the results that the state exit polls were crap.
Trump's campaign was a rollercoaster right up till the last minute, just like his life, and I expect his presidency to be too.
It's interesting that it's Lib Dems who seem to be most confused by the concept of a politician keeping his promise. Can't think why.
Kasich is dead meat.
He is very unpopular with Republicans even with Ohio Republicans, though he is very popular with democrats.
The way he conducted himself through the primaries and after till election day terminated his political influence, he is still governor of Ohio but he doesn't carry enough votes to change any outcome even in his state (Trump still won it by 10 points more than the national average).
He is the GOP version of Jim Webb, a man who is in the wrong party.
Regarding Kasich's odds:
https://twitter.com/dlippman/status/801801424183103488
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/fidel-castro-en/article117186483.html
Castro's daughter points out he wasn't a dictator but a tyrant.
Beat that Jeremy
They know that between big and small countries, when it comes to trade or anything else, it is the smaller country that makes the concessions.
My apologies if anyone is eating supper….
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/fidel-castro-cruel-dictator-ignore-revisionists/