Just as an observation could the Senate end up 50 all ?
It certainly can, in which case whoever's elected Vice-President actually has to work for his pay for once, as he'll have to preside over the Senate in person to break any ties.
Why did they have a Senate that has an equal number of members (giving DC only one Senator would fix that). Similarly for the number of electoral votes!!
I think the intention of the Founding Fathers was that the VP's day job was to actually preside over the Senate, but after the first VP, John Adams, took a very active role as President of the Senate, the Senate didn't much care for that and since the VP has only actively presided when the Senate's tied.
Fun fact: The states have to have equal representation in the Senate. That's the only super-entrenched part of the Constitution - it can't be amended even by the usual amendment process.
Interesting, how is it entrenched?
Article 5 of the US Constitution covers the mechanism by which the Constitution can be amended. It specifically prohibits any amendment to the Constitution which deprives a state of equal representation in the Senate without its consent.
Thanks! So they could amend it if they had consent, or would they need continuing consent after amendment?
It needs 66% support in the Senate AND House to enact a change - and 75% ratification (38 States) before the amendment becomes part of the Constitution. Since at the moment the Senate is about to split 50-50 this seems unlikely. (There is often a time limit imposed as well, but that is not mandatory).
Could a new state accept less representation?
That would still need an amendment to the Constitution. Article 1, Section 3, Clause 1 stipulates that each state has two senators. Unless that is modified it applies to any state that becomes part of the USA in the same way it applies to existing states. The process for reducing representation is therefore the same regardless of whether we are dealing with an existing state or a new one.
Seven states have fewer Representatives than they have Senators:
Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming
I'm sick and tired of those who say Hillary has no great accomplishments. I would say staying out of prison for the crimes she committed in the last four decades is a great accomplishment.
Trump camp seems increasingly bullish about Michigan.Another poll from Trafalgar conducted yesterday in Michigan is: Trump 48.5% Clinton 46.8
I'm still puzzled by the Trafalgar poll purporting to show a Shy Trump effect. It showed more people thinking their neighbour was going Trump than saying they were voting Trump which seems like a "loud Trump" effect to me.
It also showed Trump getting 30% of Blacks, 40% of Hispanics, 60% of remaining non-whites and only a 3 point deficit with women. That's somewhat optimistic.
Trump camp seems increasingly bullish about Michigan.Another poll from Trafalgar conducted yesterday in Michigan is: Trump 48.5% Clinton 46.8
I'm still puzzled by the Trafalgar poll purporting to show a Shy Trump effect. It showed more people thinking their neighbour was going Trump than saying they were voting Trump which seems like a "loud Trump" effect to me.
The idea is it depersonalizes the question. If I ask you directly who you will vote for you might give me the socially acceptable response if you are socially sensitive, rather than your true feeling. If I ask you about your neighbour it allows you to project your feelings while not triggering the subconcious need to please.
I've got a good friend who is supporting Donald Trump.
You'd be off my Xmas card list Pulps....sorry...I've got 2 brothers...both went for Brexit, and now both are gunning for Trump. One can vote....and is heavily involved in this campaign...I can't say anything else I'm afraid.
Anyway the sooner I can get my mum's estate sorted, the sooner I can start saying I have two ex brothers.....
Out of curiosity why are you so hostile to people of different views in 'real life' while still able to interact with similar people on PB ?
Polls continue to tighten, generally in Trump's favour.... A small systematic error, and Trump is the 45th President. I believe the chance of such error is high.
INTERESTING FACT: you have to go back to 1904 to find a swing in favour of a two-term (or more) incumbent party, and that was under a sitting president, Teddy Roosevelt. The median swing against is about 5%, the lowest 1.2% in 1944, against FDR. The lowest swing against the incumbent party in an open election was 3.9% in 1928. Clinton is no FDR or Bull Moose, so perhaps the polls are wrong...
"Polls continue to tighten, generally in Trump's favour.... A small systematic error, and Trump is the 45th President. I believe the chance of such error is high."
I'm not sure what you base that on. Looking at things from a purely 538.com perspective, it appears to have been a very bad day for Trump with Hillary's percentage chance of winning having improved significantly over the past 10 hours from 65.0% this morning to 69.2% - that's a huge movement over such a short timeframe. I reckon if Trump loses tomorrow, today proved to be his downfall.
Trump camp seems increasingly bullish about Michigan.Another poll from Trafalgar conducted yesterday in Michigan is: Trump 48.5% Clinton 46.8
I'm still puzzled by the Trafalgar poll purporting to show a Shy Trump effect. It showed more people thinking their neighbour was going Trump than saying they were voting Trump which seems like a "loud Trump" effect to me.
The idea is it depersonalizes the question. If I ask you directly who you will vote for you might give me the socially acceptable response if you are socially sensitive, rather than your true feeling. If I ask you about your neighbour it allows you to project your feelings while not triggering the subconcious need to please.
I've got a good friend who is supporting Donald Trump.
You'd be off my Xmas card list Pulps....sorry...I've got 2 brothers...both went for Brexit, and now both are gunning for Trump. One can vote....and is heavily involved in this campaign...I can't say anything else I'm afraid.
Anyway the sooner I can get my mum's estate sorted, the sooner I can start saying I have two ex brothers.....
Out of curiosity why are you so hostile to people of different views in 'real life' while still able to interact with similar people on PB ?
Lol, I genuinely do have a good friend supporting Trump
If I had a vote, it'd be for Hillary - I'd take no pleasure in it at all but I think she's for the best. I think part of my subconscious wants Trump to win having said that..
I'm working tomorrow in the Cotswolds but then in Sarf Ken overnight. 24 hour room service was a key discriminator in hotel choice for tomorrow...
In 2000, I spent the election night - the one that was nip and tuck between Gore and Bush - in the delightful Inverlochy Castle, pretty much in the shadow of Ben Nevis. Finally went to bed about 5.00 am thinking it was President Gore - woke up to the chaos of Hanging Chad.
Not happy about the weather forecast for tomorrow night: very cold and snowing. Sod's Law says there'll be a power cut in the middle of election night.
Trump camp seems increasingly bullish about Michigan.Another poll from Trafalgar conducted yesterday in Michigan is: Trump 48.5% Clinton 46.8
I'm still puzzled by the Trafalgar poll purporting to show a Shy Trump effect. It showed more people thinking their neighbour was going Trump than saying they were voting Trump which seems like a "loud Trump" effect to me.
The idea is it depersonalizes the question. If I ask you directly who you will vote for you might give me the socially acceptable response if you are socially sensitive, rather than your true feeling. If I ask you about your neighbour it allows you to project your feelings while not triggering the subconcious need to please.
I've got a good friend who is supporting Donald Trump.
You'd be off my Xmas card list Pulps....sorry...I've got 2 brothers...both went for Brexit, and now both are gunning for Trump. One can vote....and is heavily involved in this campaign...I can't say anything else I'm afraid.
Anyway the sooner I can get my mum's estate sorted, the sooner I can start saying I have two ex brothers.....
Out of curiosity why are you so hostile to people of different views in 'real life' while still able to interact with similar people on PB ?
Lol, I genuinely do have a good friend supporting Trump
If I had a vote, it'd be for Hillary - I'd take no pleasure in it at all but I think she's for the best. I think part of my subconscious wants Trump to win having said that..
I think many people have a bit of their subconscious that wants Trump to win - if only to see what happens when you press the Big Red Button marked "DO NOT PRESS THIS BUTTON"....
A large part of Michigan and PA's strength for Democrats are the AA populations of Detroit and Philadelphia. AA turnout dropping in both Florida and North Carolina early voting probably means that Trump runs Clinton closer (AA turnout will be down nationally) in these (MI, PA) states than Romney ever got.
Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe has granted voting rights to as many as 60,000 convicted felons just in time for them to register to vote, nearly five times more than previously reported and enough to win the state for his long-time friend, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
McAuliffe sought to allow all of Virginia’s estimated 200,000 felons to vote, but state courts said each individual felon’s circumstances must be weighed. To get around that, McAuliffe used a mechanical autopen to rapidly sign thousands of letters, as if he had personally reviewed them...
Good on him. The permanent removal of the vote from people convicted of a crime yet served their sentence in many American states is a disgrace of international proportions.
>MattW said It is a quite corrupt manoeuvre, however.
>619 said why? giving more people a vote is always a good thing
>Matt W
Are you for real, 619?
The principle of votes for ex-prisoners is a different question from a Governor attempting to manipulate an election in his favoured direction using the power of his elected position.
McAuliffe has been Governor of Virginia for nearly 3 years.
The courts required individual cases to be reviewed. He organised a signing-machine, then he reportedly lied about how many he had done to the tune of reducing the number by 80% in his statements.
If it was a big principle of giving votes to former felons he would have done it in 2014.
He didn't.
It is just another variety of attempted gerrymander.
But that is the US Electoral System for you.
If you cared to actually research the matter, you'd realise he's been trying to do it since he was elected. The timing is a result of court challenges, and responses to them. (As an aside, Virginia is only one of four states which bars felons for life from voting.)
Trump camp seems increasingly bullish about Michigan.Another poll from Trafalgar conducted yesterday in Michigan is: Trump 48.5% Clinton 46.8
I'm still puzzled by the Trafalgar poll purporting to show a Shy Trump effect. It showed more people thinking their neighbour was going Trump than saying they were voting Trump which seems like a "loud Trump" effect to me.
The idea is it depersonalizes the question. If I ask you directly who you will vote for you might give me the socially acceptable response if you are socially sensitive, rather than your true feeling. If I ask you about your neighbour it allows you to project your feelings while not triggering the subconcious need to please.
I've got a good friend who is supporting Donald Trump.
You'd be off my Xmas card list Pulps....sorry...I've got 2 brothers...both went for Brexit, and now both are gunning for Trump. One can vote....and is heavily involved in this campaign...I can't say anything else I'm afraid.
Anyway the sooner I can get my mum's estate sorted, the sooner I can start saying I have two ex brothers.....
Out of curiosity why are you so hostile to people of different views in 'real life' while still able to interact with similar people on PB ?
Lol, I genuinely do have a good friend supporting Trump
If I had a vote, it'd be for Hillary - I'd take no pleasure in it at all but I think she's for the best. I think part of my subconscious wants Trump to win having said that..
I remember a vox pops interview of a woman after voting on June 23rd who said she'd made up her mind to vote Remain but when she was in the polling booth something came over her and she put a cross next to Leave having never considered doing it before. The question is how much of the spirit of Brexit is out there tomorrow...
Trump camp seems increasingly bullish about Michigan.Another poll from Trafalgar conducted yesterday in Michigan is: Trump 48.5% Clinton 46.8
I'm still puzzled by the Trafalgar poll purporting to show a Shy Trump effect. It showed more people thinking their neighbour was going Trump than saying they were voting Trump which seems like a "loud Trump" effect to me.
The idea is it depersonalizes the question. If I ask you directly who you will vote for you might give me the socially acceptable response if you are socially sensitive, rather than your true feeling. If I ask you about your neighbour it allows you to project your feelings while not triggering the subconcious need to please.
I've got a good friend who is supporting Donald Trump.
You'd be off my Xmas card list Pulps....sorry...I've got 2 brothers...both went for Brexit, and now both are gunning for Trump. One can vote....and is heavily involved in this campaign...I can't say anything else I'm afraid.
Anyway the sooner I can get my mum's estate sorted, the sooner I can start saying I have two ex brothers.....
Out of curiosity why are you so hostile to people of different views in 'real life' while still able to interact with similar people on PB ?
Lol, I genuinely do have a good friend supporting Trump
If I had a vote, it'd be for Hillary - I'd take no pleasure in it at all but I think she's for the best. I think part of my subconscious wants Trump to win having said that..
I think many people have a bit of their subconscious that wants Trump to win - if only to see what happens when you press the Big Red Button marked "DO NOT PRESS THIS BUTTON"....
Not happy about the weather forecast for tomorrow night: very cold and snowing. Sod's Law says there'll be a power cut in the middle of election night.
If Trump wins tomorrow, it will do the pollsters no good to moan a bit and say they will do better. How many times have we heard after an election that they are redefining their methods. They will have blood on their faces, and they will still try and gull the gullible and PBers will still be excited by the polls. Sad really.
Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe has granted voting rights to as many as 60,000 convicted felons just in time for them to register to vote, nearly five times more than previously reported and enough to win the state for his long-time friend, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
McAuliffe sought to allow all of Virginia’s estimated 200,000 felons to vote, but state courts said each individual felon’s circumstances must be weighed. To get around that, McAuliffe used a mechanical autopen to rapidly sign thousands of letters, as if he had personally reviewed them...
Good on him. The permanent removal of the vote from people convicted of a crime yet served their sentence in many American states is a disgrace of international proportions.
>MattW said It is a quite corrupt manoeuvre, however.
>619 said why? giving more people a vote is always a good thing
>Matt W
Are you for real, 619?
The principle of votes for ex-prisoners is a different question from a Governor attempting to manipulate an election in his favoured direction using the power of his elected position.
McAuliffe has been Governor of Virginia for nearly 3 years.
The courts required individual cases to be reviewed. He organised a signing-machine, then he reportedly lied about how many he had done to the tune of reducing the number by 80% in his statements.
If it was a big principle of giving votes to former felons he would have done it in 2014.
He didn't.
It is just another variety of attempted gerrymander.
But that is the US Electoral System for you.
If you cared to actually research the matter, you'd realise he's been trying to do it since he was elected. The timing is a result of court challenges, and responses to them. (As an aside, Virginia is only one of four states which bars felons for life from voting.)
Also, on the other side of the coin, how many otherwise non-voters or Democrats for that matter might well be persuaded to vote for Trump on account of Governor McAuliffe's said actions?
Trump camp seems increasingly bullish about Michigan.Another poll from Trafalgar conducted yesterday in Michigan is: Trump 48.5% Clinton 46.8
I'm still puzzled by the Trafalgar poll purporting to show a Shy Trump effect. It showed more people thinking their neighbour was going Trump than saying they were voting Trump which seems like a "loud Trump" effect to me.
The idea is it depersonalizes the question. If I ask you directly who you will vote for you might give me the socially acceptable response if you are socially sensitive, rather than your true feeling. If I ask you about your neighbour it allows you to project your feelings while not triggering the subconcious need to please.
I've got a good friend who is supporting Donald Trump.
You'd be off my Xmas card list Pulps....sorry...I've got 2 brothers...both went for Brexit, and now both are gunning for Trump. One can vote....and is heavily involved in this campaign...I can't say anything else I'm afraid.
Anyway the sooner I can get my mum's estate sorted, the sooner I can start saying I have two ex brothers.....
Out of curiosity why are you so hostile to people of different views in 'real life' while still able to interact with similar people on PB ?
Lol, I genuinely do have a good friend supporting Trump
If I had a vote, it'd be for Hillary - I'd take no pleasure in it at all but I think she's for the best. I think part of my subconscious wants Trump to win having said that..
I think many people have a bit of their subconscious that wants Trump to win - if only to see what happens when you press the Big Red Button marked "DO NOT PRESS THIS BUTTON"....
Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe has granted voting rights to as many as 60,000 convicted felons just in time for them to register to vote, nearly five times more than previously reported and enough to win the state for his long-time friend, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
McAuliffe sought to allow all of Virginia’s estimated 200,000 felons to vote, but state courts said each individual felon’s circumstances must be weighed. To get around that, McAuliffe used a mechanical autopen to rapidly sign thousands of letters, as if he had personally reviewed them...
Good on him. The permanent removal of the vote from people convicted of a crime yet served their sentence in many American states is a disgrace of international proportions.
>MattW said It is a quite corrupt manoeuvre, however.
>619 said why? giving more people a vote is always a good thing
>Matt W
Are you for real, 619?
The principle of votes for ex-prisoners is a different question from a Governor attempting to manipulate an election in his favoured direction using the power of his elected position.
McAuliffe has been Governor of Virginia for nearly 3 years.
The courts required individual cases to be reviewed. He organised a signing-machine, then he reportedly lied about how many he had done to the tune of reducing the number by 80% in his statements.
If it was a big principle of giving votes to former felons he would have done it in 2014.
He didn't.
It is just another variety of attempted gerrymander.
But that is the US Electoral System for you.
If you cared to actually research the matter, you'd realise he's been trying to do it since he was elected. The timing is a result of court challenges, and responses to them. (As an aside, Virginia is only one of four states which bars felons for life from voting.)
Also, on the other side of the coin, how many otherwise non-voters or Democrats for that matter might well be persuaded to vote for Trump on account of Governor McAuliffe's said actions?
zero. Why shouldnt ex convicts be allowed to vote?
If Trump wins tomorrow, it will do the pollsters no good to moan a bit and say they will do better. How many times have we heard after an election that they are redefining their methods. They will have blood on their faces, and they will still try and gull the gullible and PBers will still be excited by the polls. Sad really.
Not happy about the weather forecast for tomorrow night: very cold and snowing. Sod's Law says there'll be a power cut in the middle of election night.
That could just be the outbreak of world war...
Surely we have 10 weeks in which to build our fallout shelters as inauguration is not until the end of January.?
Sounds like Trump is only a minor polling error away from the presidency...
With apologies to the experts on here who know the EC analysis backwards, I thought this summary in today's Indy was a good beginners' guide for amateurs like me
I remember someone one here saying they wouldn't take one of their elderly parents/grandparents (I forget which) to vote in the EU referendum since they would vote the "wrong way".
This guy is an idiot. They weren't searching through 600 000 emails, they were searching for new content and new accounts, i.e. non matches with what they already had.
Trump can perhaps consider himself lucky that he has got away without the most lurid allegations getting airtime. I always said he was in way over his head with the Russians and he is, they have the kind of compromising information on his business and leisure activities to sink him.
Western intelligence agencies are aware of it, but they don't hold it.
This guy is an idiot. They weren't searching through 600 000 emails, they were searching for new content and new accounts, i.e. non matches with what they already had.
Trump can perhaps consider himself lucky that he has got away without the most lurid allegations getting airtime. I always said he was in way over his head with the Russians and he is, they have the kind of compromising information on his business and leisure activities to sink him.
Western intelligence agencies are aware of it, but they don't hold it.
This guy is an idiot. They weren't searching through 600 000 emails, they were searching for new content and new accounts, i.e. non matches with what they already had.
Trump can perhaps consider himself lucky that he has got away without the most lurid allegations getting airtime. I always said he was in way over his head with the Russians and he is, they have the kind of compromising information on his business and leisure activities to sink him.
Western intelligence agencies are aware of it, but they don't hold it.
This guy is an idiot. They weren't searching through 600 000 emails, they were searching for new content and new accounts, i.e. non matches with what they already had.
Trump can perhaps consider himself lucky that he has got away without the most lurid allegations getting airtime. I always said he was in way over his head with the Russians and he is, they have the kind of compromising information on his business and leisure activities to sink him.
Western intelligence agencies are aware of it, but they don't hold it.
Not very reassuring.
How has the USA sunk so low.
I hear HM is ready to appoint a new governor at a moments notice.
Like there was on June 23rd after the City had conducted their Primrose Hill exit polls.
The $ strengthened marginally but the bigger news was the strong recovery of the Dow from (most of) last week's fall. Current trading on the spreads suggests the up trend has petered out, at least for now.
This guy is an idiot. They weren't searching through 600 000 emails, they were searching for new content and new accounts, i.e. non matches with what they already had.
Trump can perhaps consider himself lucky that he has got away without the most lurid allegations getting airtime. I always said he was in way over his head with the Russians and he is, they have the kind of compromising information on his business and leisure activities to sink him.
Western intelligence agencies are aware of it, but they don't hold it.
Not very reassuring.
How has the USA sunk so low.
I hear HM is ready to appoint a new governor at a moments notice.
This guy is an idiot. They weren't searching through 600 000 emails, they were searching for new content and new accounts, i.e. non matches with what they already had.
Trump can perhaps consider himself lucky that he has got away without the most lurid allegations getting airtime. I always said he was in way over his head with the Russians and he is, they have the kind of compromising information on his business and leisure activities to sink him.
Western intelligence agencies are aware of it, but they don't hold it.
Not very reassuring.
How has the USA sunk so low.
I hear HM is ready to appoint a new governor at a moments notice.
The last time we made that offer there was the rider "...except Utah, which she doesn't fancy". This time the rumour is that we might even retake Utah.
Sounds like Trump is only a minor polling error away from the presidency...
With apologies to the experts on here who know the EC analysis backwards, I thought this summary in today's Indy was a good beginners' guide for amateurs like me
This guy is an idiot. They weren't searching through 600 000 emails, they were searching for new content and new accounts, i.e. non matches with what they already had.
Trump can perhaps consider himself lucky that he has got away without the most lurid allegations getting airtime. I always said he was in way over his head with the Russians and he is, they have the kind of compromising information on his business and leisure activities to sink him.
Western intelligence agencies are aware of it, but they don't hold it.
Who holds what on Hillary Clinton though?
Clinton's sins are largely out there regarding the foundation and the emails. The latter may not be over yet anyway, within the FBI there is fairly strong divisions because the practical call would be to indict. The woman had Gamma level material amongst the stash found. Thats serious messing up.
Trump on the other hand, as I said, both business and leisure pursuits. The guys involvement in Russia goes back decades.
This guy is an idiot. They weren't searching through 600 000 emails, they were searching for new content and new accounts, i.e. non matches with what they already had.
Trump can perhaps consider himself lucky that he has got away without the most lurid allegations getting airtime. I always said he was in way over his head with the Russians and he is, they have the kind of compromising information on his business and leisure activities to sink him.
Western intelligence agencies are aware of it, but they don't hold it.
Who holds what on Hillary Clinton though?
Clinton's sins are largely out there regarding the foundation and the emails. The latter may not be over yet anyway, within the FBI there is fairly strong divisions because the practical call would be to indict. The woman had Gamma level material amongst the stash found. Thats serious messing up.
Trump on the other hand, as I said, both business and leisure pursuits. The guys involvement in Russia goes back decades.
Shock horror ..... Hillary's ECV spread has fallen yet another 5 votes tonight with Sporting, who now quote her at 305-315 (with Trump on offer at 222-232. That means she has fallen by 17 ECVs since overnight when she peaked at 322-332. It doesn't augur well for a peaceful night's sleep for Hillary.
This guy is an idiot. They weren't searching through 600 000 emails, they were searching for new content and new accounts, i.e. non matches with what they already had.
Trump can perhaps consider himself lucky that he has got away without the most lurid allegations getting airtime. I always said he was in way over his head with the Russians and he is, they have the kind of compromising information on his business and leisure activities to sink him.
Western intelligence agencies are aware of it, but they don't hold it.
Who holds what on Hillary Clinton though?
Clinton's sins are largely out there regarding the foundation and the emails. The latter may not be over yet anyway, within the FBI there is fairly strong divisions because the practical call would be to indict. The woman had Gamma level material amongst the stash found. Thats serious messing up.
Trump on the other hand, as I said, both business and leisure pursuits. The guys involvement in Russia goes back decades.
Such a great choice for our American cousins.
How the F do you get 2 such badly flawed people as your 2 choices?
Trump camp seems increasingly bullish about Michigan.Another poll from Trafalgar conducted yesterday in Michigan is: Trump 48.5% Clinton 46.8
I'm still puzzled by the Trafalgar poll purporting to show a Shy Trump effect. It showed more people thinking their neighbour was going Trump than saying they were voting Trump which seems like a "loud Trump" effect to me.
The idea is it depersonalizes the question. If I ask you directly who you will vote for you might give me the socially acceptable response if you are socially sensitive, rather than your true feeling. If I ask you about your neighbour it allows you to project your feelings while not triggering the subconcious need to please.
I've got a good friend who is supporting Donald Trump.
You'd be off my Xmas card list Pulps....sorry...I've got 2 brothers...both went for Brexit, and now both are gunning for Trump. One can vote....and is heavily involved in this campaign...I can't say anything else I'm afraid.
Anyway the sooner I can get my mum's estate sorted, the sooner I can start saying I have two ex brothers.....
Out of curiosity why are you so hostile to people of different views in 'real life' while still able to interact with similar people on PB ?
Lol, I genuinely do have a good friend supporting Trump
If I had a vote, it'd be for Hillary - I'd take no pleasure in it at all but I think she's for the best. I think part of my subconscious wants Trump to win having said that..
I think many people have a bit of their subconscious that wants Trump to win - if only to see what happens when you press the Big Red Button marked "DO NOT PRESS THIS BUTTON"....
Not happy about the weather forecast for tomorrow night: very cold and snowing. Sod's Law says there'll be a power cut in the middle of election night.
That could just be the outbreak of world war...
Surely we have 10 weeks in which to build our fallout shelters as inauguration is not until the end of January.?
Don't worry - that nice mr Corbyn will tell them to play nicely and all will be well in the world.
Can you imagine stop the war if Trump made it.........
Over the past week I've come round to the view that we have to see Brexit through, and stopping it is not an option. I think that, if we fudge it through and stay in the EU ie associate membership, EFTA, out of the EU in name only etc, the forces that led to the Brexit vote will not be satisfied and we will end up with some kind of massive populist revolt. There is no evidence that peoples minds are changing, not even now the Scottish and Irish position is becoming clearer.
Its better to accept the decision and face the consequences. I think it will be painful, far more than £4300 per week painful, but if we are a democracy, we have to face the truth, because there is no 'going back' option. We can't turn the clock back six months, six years or a decade. We can't go back.
The people - the idiots - voted to trigger article 50 on June 24th. They have to live with the consequences of their decision. It was inconceivably stupid of Cameron to allow us to get in to this position, but he ultimately put his own political career ahead of the stability of the UK as an entity. He has to live with his decision, as we all do.
For what it's worth, there was one recent poll (from BMG, I think) showing a 52-48 majority against Brexit, weighted according to how people voted so not obviously another sampling error. It wasn't that Leavers had switched to Remain but some Leavers had switched to Unsure.
Only one poll and a small movement at that, but obviously worth keeping an eye on developments.
Got a couple of pizzas for tomorrow night/Wednesday morning with plenty of soft drinks and a few beers. Then it's eggs and bacon and baked beans for breakfast. And because I'm retired and I can, I'll crawl into bed and sleep the morning away.
I've just compared the latest polling averages (RCP) with the 2012 results and there are just three swing states which have shifted towards the Democrats: Arizona, North Carolina and Virginia.
Small potatoes. Clinton's souls to the polls canvasses cemeteries.
Now thats what you call GOTV!
The USA has so many entertaining traditions.
Many people continue to vote and collect their pensions long after their actual deaths in Italy. Don't believe the stats about Southern Italian longevity and the supposed blessings of the Mediterranean diet.
Over the past week I've come round to the view that we have to see Brexit through, and stopping it is not an option. I think that, if we fudge it through and stay in the EU ie associate membership, EFTA, out of the EU in name only etc, the forces that led to the Brexit vote will not be satisfied and we will end up with some kind of massive populist revolt. There is no evidence that peoples minds are changing, not even now the Scottish and Irish position is becoming clearer.
Its better to accept the decision and face the consequences. I think it will be painful, far more than £4300 per week painful, but if we are a democracy, we have to face the truth, because there is no 'going back' option. We can't turn the clock back six months, six years or a decade. We can't go back.
The people - the idiots - voted to trigger article 50 on June 24th. They have to live with the consequences of their decision. It was inconceivably stupid of Cameron to allow us to get in to this position, but he ultimately put his own political career ahead of the stability of the UK as an entity. He has to live with his decision, as we all do.
For what it's worth, there was one recent poll (from BMG, I think) showing a 52-48 majority against Brexit, weighted according to how people voted so not obviously another sampling error. It wasn't that Leavers had switched to Remain but some Leavers had switched to Unsure.
Only one poll and a small movement at that, but obviously worth keeping an eye on developments.
Trump camp seems increasingly bullish about Michigan.Another poll from Trafalgar conducted yesterday in Michigan is: Trump 48.5% Clinton 46.8
I'm still puzzled by the Trafalgar poll purporting to show a Shy Trump effect. It showed more people thinking their neighbour was going Trump than saying they were voting Trump which seems like a "loud Trump" effect to me.
The idea is it depersonalizes the question. If I ask you directly who you will vote for you might give me the socially acceptable response if you are socially sensitive, rather than your true feeling. If I ask you about your neighbour it allows you to project your feelings while not triggering the subconcious need to please.
I've got a good friend who is supporting Donald Trump.
You'd be off my Xmas card list Pulps....sorry...I've got 2 brothers...both went for Brexit, and now both are gunning for Trump. One can vote....and is heavily involved in this campaign...I can't say anything else I'm afraid.
Anyway the sooner I can get my mum's estate sorted, the sooner I can start saying I have two ex brothers.....
Out of curiosity why are you so hostile to people of different views in 'real life' while still able to interact with similar people on PB ?
Lol, I genuinely do have a good friend supporting Trump
If I had a vote, it'd be for Hillary - I'd take no pleasure in it at all but I think she's for the best. I think part of my subconscious wants Trump to win having said that..
I think many people have a bit of their subconscious that wants Trump to win - if only to see what happens when you press the Big Red Button marked "DO NOT PRESS THIS BUTTON"....
For what it's worth, there was one recent poll (from BMG, I think) showing a 52-48 majority against Brexit, weighted according to how people voted so not obviously another sampling error. It wasn't that Leavers had switched to Remain but some Leavers had switched to Unsure.
Only one poll and a small movement at that, but obviously worth keeping an eye on developments.
Having a problem with a democratic vote still?
Nope. You can also General Election and take an interest in subsequent polls. This is no different. The idea that the referendum was the end of history is an illusion.
Shock horror ..... Hillary's ECV spread has fallen yet another 5 votes tonight with Sporting, who now quote her at 305-315 (with Trump on offer at 222-232. That means she has fallen by 17 ECVs since overnight when she peaked at 322-332. It doesn't augur well for a peaceful night's sleep for Hillary.
This guy is an idiot. They weren't searching through 600 000 emails, they were searching for new content and new accounts, i.e. non matches with what they already had.
Trump can perhaps consider himself lucky that he has got away without the most lurid allegations getting airtime. I always said he was in way over his head with the Russians and he is, they have the kind of compromising information on his business and leisure activities to sink him.
Western intelligence agencies are aware of it, but they don't hold it.
Who holds what on Hillary Clinton though?
Clinton's sins are largely out there regarding the foundation and the emails. The latter may not be over yet anyway, within the FBI there is fairly strong divisions because the practical call would be to indict. The woman had Gamma level material amongst the stash found. Thats serious messing up.
Trump on the other hand, as I said, both business and leisure pursuits. The guys involvement in Russia goes back decades.
Is Trump actually solvent ?
Personally, he may well be covered. His business empire was pretty much on its knees at one point and there are still question marks over large segments of the Trump empire. Deutsche Bank at various stages extended him a lot of credit and his business empire is still massively in the hole but the curious thing was, DB's injections wouldn't have been enough if you are to believe some of the financial analysis.
Got a couple of pizzas for tomorrow night/Wednesday morning with plenty of soft drinks and a few beers. Then it's eggs and bacon and baked beans for breakfast. And because I'm retired and I can, I'll crawl into bed and sleep the morning away.
I remember someone one here saying they wouldn't take one of their elderly parents/grandparents (I forget which) to vote in the EU referendum since they would vote the "wrong way".
I remember someone one here saying they wouldn't take one of their elderly parents/grandparents (I forget which) to vote in the EU referendum since they would vote the "wrong way".
This guy is an idiot. They weren't searching through 600 000 emails, they were searching for new content and new accounts, i.e. non matches with what they already had.
Trump can perhaps consider himself lucky that he has got away without the most lurid allegations getting airtime. I always said he was in way over his head with the Russians and he is, they have the kind of compromising information on his business and leisure activities to sink him.
Western intelligence agencies are aware of it, but they don't hold it.
Who holds what on Hillary Clinton though?
Clinton's sins are largely out there regarding the foundation and the emails. The latter may not be over yet anyway, within the FBI there is fairly strong divisions because the practical call would be to indict. The woman had Gamma level material amongst the stash found. Thats serious messing up.
Trump on the other hand, as I said, both business and leisure pursuits. The guys involvement in Russia goes back decades.
Is Trump actually solvent ?
Personally, he may well be covered. His business empire was pretty much on its knees at one point and there are still question marks over large segments of the Trump empire. Deutsche Bank at various stages extended him a lot of credit and his business empire is still massively in the hole but the curious thing was, DB's injections wouldn't have been enough if you are to believe some of the financial analysis.
Where did the rest therefore come from?
hat sales? no doubt it will eventually be revealed that he basically charged the GOP for his candidacy..
I remember someone one here saying they wouldn't take one of their elderly parents/grandparents (I forget which) to vote in the EU referendum since they would vote the "wrong way".
For what it's worth, there was one recent poll (from BMG, I think) showing a 52-48 majority against Brexit, weighted according to how people voted so not obviously another sampling error. It wasn't that Leavers had switched to Remain but some Leavers had switched to Unsure.
Only one poll and a small movement at that, but obviously worth keeping an eye on developments.
Having a problem with a democratic vote still?
Nope. You can also General Election and take an interest in subsequent polls. This is no different. The idea that the referendum was the end of history is an illusion.
I remember someone one here saying they wouldn't take one of their elderly parents/grandparents (I forget which) to vote in the EU referendum since they would vote the "wrong way".
That's Leavers for you.
Was actually a remainer
No it wasn't.
AH, maybe my memory is playing tricks on me. Still reprehensible, whatever side it was!
I remember someone one here saying they wouldn't take one of their elderly parents/grandparents (I forget which) to vote in the EU referendum since they would vote the "wrong way".
That's Leavers for you.
Was actually a remainer
No it wasn't.
AH, maybe my memory is playing tricks on me. Still reprehensible, whatever side it was!
a senile great aunt was led to vote for mrs t three times by a relative...
Nope. You can also General Election and take an interest in subsequent polls. This is no different. The idea that the referendum was the end of history is an illusion.
No, but its a decision.
Sure. I'm not one of those arguing that we shouldn't proceed on the assumption that we're withdrawing. But, as with any other political pattern, if there is a major shift in public opinion, it will have an effect on how and possibly whether the decision is carried out in practice. I don't think it's especially likely, but it's not undemocratic to take an interest in whether opinion is evolving. (I was replying to a post by philiph saying there had been no change at all.)
I remember someone one here saying they wouldn't take one of their elderly parents/grandparents (I forget which) to vote in the EU referendum since they would vote the "wrong way".
That's Leavers for you.
Was actually a remainer
No it wasn't.
AH, maybe my memory is playing tricks on me. Still reprehensible, whatever side it was!
True, but these sort things are useful on a largely anonymous forum for identifying the authentic assholes.
Following on from Professor bob (sic) Watt's complaint to the DPP in which he alleges that the Leave campaign misled voters, US citizens should consider writing to the US Attorney General to complain about Donald Trump's statement this evening that a vote for him will make all their dreams come true. I'm not joking. That's what he said. An outright lie, I call it. Dreadful. The slippery slope! Whoever thought we'd get lies in politics, conveyed directly to voters? Matron!
Following on from Professor bob (sic) Watt's complaint to the DPP in which he alleges that the Leave campaign misled voters, US citizens should consider writing to the US Attorney General to complain about Donald Trump's statement this evening that a vote for him will make all their dreams come true. I'm not joking. That's what he said. An outright lie, I call it. Dreadful. The slippery slope! Whoever thought we'd get lies in politics, conveyed directly to voters? Matron!
I remember someone one here saying they wouldn't take one of their elderly parents/grandparents (I forget which) to vote in the EU referendum since they would vote the "wrong way".
That's Leavers for you.
Was actually a remainer
No it wasn't.
AH, maybe my memory is playing tricks on me. Still reprehensible, whatever side it was!
True, but these sort things are useful on a largely anonymous forum for identifying the authentic assholes.
I remember someone one here saying they wouldn't take one of their elderly parents/grandparents (I forget which) to vote in the EU referendum since they would vote the "wrong way".
That's Leavers for you.
Was actually a remainer
No it wasn't.
I think it would help us remember if the post in question could be produced.
I remember someone one here saying they wouldn't take one of their elderly parents/grandparents (I forget which) to vote in the EU referendum since they would vote the "wrong way".
That's Leavers for you.
Was actually a remainer
No it wasn't.
AH, maybe my memory is playing tricks on me. Still reprehensible, whatever side it was!
True, but these sort things are useful on a largely anonymous forum for identifying the authentic assholes.
Whichever side they were on, they're still an arsehole. I voted Remain but I was happy to drive my Leave-supporting neighbour, who is in her 80s, to the polling station. I always do it. In other elections we've voted the same way. On a single occasion she chose not to tell me who she voted for. (I suspect it may have been for UKIP.) It has never occurred to me, and never will, to decide not to offer to take her because I don't like the way she will vote or may vote.
I remember someone one here saying they wouldn't take one of their elderly parents/grandparents (I forget which) to vote in the EU referendum since they would vote the "wrong way".
That's Leavers for you.
Was actually a remainer
No it wasn't.
I think it would help us remember if the post in question could be produced.
Strangely I don't feel the slightest obligation to help you (and whoever your nameless companions are that help to make up 'us') remember.
This guy is an idiot. They weren't searching through 600 000 emails, they were searching for new content and new accounts, i.e. non matches with what they already had.
Trump can perhaps consider himself lucky that he has got away without the most lurid allegations getting airtime. I always said he was in way over his head with the Russians and he is, they have the kind of compromising information on his business and leisure activities to sink him.
Western intelligence agencies are aware of it, but they don't hold it.
Who holds what on Hillary Clinton though?
Clinton's sins are largely out there regarding the foundation and the emails. The latter may not be over yet anyway, within the FBI there is fairly strong divisions because the practical call would be to indict. The woman had Gamma level material amongst the stash found. Thats serious messing up.
Trump on the other hand, as I said, both business and leisure pursuits. The guys involvement in Russia goes back decades.
Is Trump actually solvent ?
Personally, he may well be covered. His business empire was pretty much on its knees at one point and there are still question marks over large segments of the Trump empire. Deutsche Bank at various stages extended him a lot of credit and his business empire is still massively in the hole but the curious thing was, DB's injections wouldn't have been enough if you are to believe some of the financial analysis.
Where did the rest therefore come from?
Bad Uncle Vlad one assumes? Personally I think shadowy Russian backing is one of the more appealing aspects of The Donald. I can find little about the prospect of an America with Russians pulling the strings any more frightening than America with Americans pulling the strings. Such a reverse takeover bid could actually make the world a good deal more stable.
This guy is an idiot. They weren't searching through 600 000 emails, they were searching for new content and new accounts, i.e. non matches with what they already had.
Trump can perhaps consider himself lucky that he has got away without the most lurid allegations getting airtime. I always said he was in way over his head with the Russians and he is, they have the kind of compromising information on his business and leisure activities to sink him.
Western intelligence agencies are aware of it, but they don't hold it.
Who holds what on Hillary Clinton though?
Clinton's sins are largely out there regarding the foundation and the emails. The latter may not be over yet anyway, within the FBI there is fairly strong divisions because the practical call would be to indict. The woman had Gamma level material amongst the stash found. Thats serious messing up.
Trump on the other hand, as I said, both business and leisure pursuits. The guys involvement in Russia goes back decades.
Is Trump actually solvent ?
Personally, he may well be covered. His business empire was pretty much on its knees at one point and there are still question marks over large segments of the Trump empire. Deutsche Bank at various stages extended him a lot of credit and his business empire is still massively in the hole but the curious thing was, DB's injections wouldn't have been enough if you are to believe some of the financial analysis.
Where did the rest therefore come from?
Tiny Rowland had Alan Bond analysed. Despite having won the Americas Cup for Australia, Bond was bankrupt within 2 years !
I remember someone one here saying they wouldn't take one of their elderly parents/grandparents (I forget which) to vote in the EU referendum since they would vote the "wrong way".
That's Leavers for you.
Was actually a remainer
No it wasn't.
I think it would help us remember if the post in question could be produced.
Strangely I don't feel the slightest obligation to help you (and whoever your nameless companions are that help to make up 'us') remember.
I remember someone one here saying they wouldn't take one of their elderly parents/grandparents (I forget which) to vote in the EU referendum since they would vote the "wrong way".
That's Leavers for you.
Was actually a remainer
No it wasn't.
I think it would help us remember if the post in question could be produced.
Spent a few minutes looking before replying to TUD, but then realised it is a proverbial needle in a haystack. I can't remember for sure either way - all I remember was the vast majority of PB were pretty disgusted with the idea of denying someone their vote!
For what it's worth, there was one recent poll (from BMG, I think) showing a 52-48 majority against Brexit, weighted according to how people voted so not obviously another sampling error. It wasn't that Leavers had switched to Remain but some Leavers had switched to Unsure.
Only one poll and a small movement at that, but obviously worth keeping an eye on developments.
Having a problem with a democratic vote still?
Nope. You can also General Election and take an interest in subsequent polls. This is no different. The idea that the referendum was the end of history is an illusion.
I remember someone one here saying they wouldn't take one of their elderly parents/grandparents (I forget which) to vote in the EU referendum since they would vote the "wrong way".
That's Leavers for you.
Was actually a remainer
No it wasn't.
AH, maybe my memory is playing tricks on me. Still reprehensible, whatever side it was!
True, but these sort things are useful on a largely anonymous forum for identifying the authentic assholes.
Whichever side they were on, they're still an arsehole. I voted Remain but I was happy to drive my Leave-supporting neighbour, who is in her 80s, to the polling station. I always do it. In other elections we've voted the same way. On a single occasion she chose not to tell me who she voted for. (I suspect it may have been for UKIP.) It has never occurred to me, and never will, to decide not to offer to take her because I don't like the way she will vote or may vote.
Yup. I took my mum to the polling station for her last vote in 2015, almost certainly for Labour, and since I was otherwise engaged, arranged for her to be taken to vote during the Indy referendum, again almost certainly for No. Can't quite imagine the petty fearfulness that would make someone do otherwise.
Comments
Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming
I'm sick and tired of those who say Hillary has no great accomplishments. I would say staying out of prison for the crimes she committed in the last four decades is a great accomplishment.
A small systematic error, and Trump is the 45th President. I believe the chance of such error is high."
I'm not sure what you base that on. Looking at things from a purely 538.com perspective, it appears to have been a very bad day for Trump with Hillary's percentage chance of winning having improved significantly over the past 10 hours from 65.0% this morning to 69.2% - that's a huge movement over such a short timeframe. I reckon if Trump loses tomorrow, today proved to be his downfall.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/07/2017-election-tories-theresa-may-brexit
Clinton winning all of FL, OH, PA - but all very narrow.
MI also only Clinton +1.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/nov/07/channel-5-profit-celebrity-big-brother-x-files
If I had a vote, it'd be for Hillary - I'd take no pleasure in it at all but I think she's for the best. I think part of my subconscious wants Trump to win having said that..
(As an aside, Virginia is only one of four states which bars felons for life from voting.)
Like there was on June 23rd after the City had conducted their Primrose Hill exit polls.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=316AzLYfAzw
https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/795766924416352256
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/us-election-will-trump-clinton-win-electoral-college-swing-states-a7402351.html
Trump can perhaps consider himself lucky that he has got away without the most lurid allegations getting airtime. I always said he was in way over his head with the Russians and he is, they have the kind of compromising information on his business and leisure activities to sink him.
Western intelligence agencies are aware of it, but they don't hold it.
How has the USA sunk so low.
"this election is a choice between someone who might blow up the world accidentally and someone who might blow up the world on purpose".
Trump on the other hand, as I said, both business and leisure pursuits. The guys involvement in Russia goes back decades.
The USA has so many entertaining traditions.
That means she has fallen by 17 ECVs since overnight when she peaked at 322-332.
It doesn't augur well for a peaceful night's sleep for Hillary.
How the F do you get 2 such badly flawed people as your 2 choices?
Can you imagine stop the war if Trump made it.........
Still think Hilary is home and hosed by the way.
Only one poll and a small movement at that, but obviously worth keeping an eye on developments.
Arizona: +5.1
North Carolina: +1.0
Virginia: +1.1
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
"DO NOT PRESS"
Where did the rest therefore come from?
andrew kaczynski @KFILE 1h1 hour ago Washington, DC
lol, just found this video of Donald Trump in December 2012 saying if GOP doesn't pass immigration reform they won't ever win again.
FL+1 (5371 sample)
NV+2(656)
OH+2 (3455)
NC+2 (2916)
PA+2(3704)
IA+3(972)
WI+5(1794)
CO+5(1556)
MI+6(3014)
VA+9(2460)
NH+9(430)
AZ-9(1567)
GA-5(2663)
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/795761633037582337
Yup. I took my mum to the polling station for her last vote in 2015, almost certainly for Labour, and since I was otherwise engaged, arranged for her to be taken to vote during the Indy referendum, again almost certainly for No. Can't quite imagine the petty fearfulness that would make someone do otherwise.