If the first exit poll we get tomorrow is Indiana:
In 2012 the exit poll in Indiana was GOP 54.5%, Dem 44.0%. The actual result was GOP 54.1%, Dem 43.9%, so the exit poll was almost spot on. The GOP margin of victory was 10.5%. RCP's polling average has the GOP ahead by 10.7%. 538's forecast has the GOP ahead by 11.5%. So if those sites are correct there should be a very small swing to the GOP in the state.
Over the past week I've come round to the view that we have to see Brexit through, and stopping it is not an option. I think that, if we fudge it through and stay in the EU ie associate membership, EFTA, out of the EU in name only etc, the forces that led to the Brexit vote will not be satisfied and we will end up with some kind of massive populist revolt. There is no evidence that peoples minds are changing, not even now the Scottish and Irish position is becoming clearer.
Its better to accept the decision and face the consequences. I think it will be painful, far more than £4300 per week painful, but if we are a democracy, we have to face the truth, because there is no 'going back' option. We can't turn the clock back six months, six years or a decade. We can't go back.
The people - the idiots - voted to trigger article 50 on June 24th. They have to live with the consequences of their decision. It was inconceivably stupid of Cameron to allow us to get in to this position, but he ultimately put his own political career ahead of the stability of the UK as an entity. He has to live with his decision, as we all do.
For what it's worth, there was one recent poll (from BMG, I think) showing a 52-48 majority against Brexit, weighted according to how people voted so not obviously another sampling error. It wasn't that Leavers had switched to Remain but some Leavers had switched to Unsure.
Only one poll and a small movement at that, but obviously worth keeping an eye on developments.
Having a problem with a democratic vote still?
Where would you draw the line? What if shortly before the allotted day for invoking Article 50 polls are showing that 70% would like to remain in the EU? After all, many voted Leave because they thought Leaving would reduce immigration and now it emerges that "Really Existing Plans for Brexit" may involve encouraging lots of immigration from India.
Does anyone think Trump is winning 26% of blacks, 41% of Hispanics, and 48% of Asians in Florida? If so, Trafalgar polls are for you
It's not that implausible. The Hispanics in Florida are anglophone Cuban-Americans and are more pro-Trump than the hispanophone Mexican-Americans in Nevada.
Apparently. I live in England. All I really know is that Horatio lives in Miami and Grissom lives in Las Vegas. Other than that, my knowledge extends as far as "um"
Does anyone think Trump is winning 26% of blacks, 41% of Hispanics, and 48% of Asians in Florida? If so, Trafalgar polls are for you
It's not that implausible. The Hispanics in Florida are anglophone Cuban-Americans and are more pro-Trump than the hispanophone Mexican-Americans in Nevada.
Apparently. I live in England. All I really know is that Horatio lives in Miami and Grissom lives in Las Vegas. Other than that, my knowledge extends as far as "um"
Yeah, but you know what you don't know.
Which makes you smarter than most.
The mexican-hispanics-are-heavily-breaking-for-clinton but non-mexican-hispanics-aren't logic is the difference between trump @ evens (or 6/5) and him being at 2/1 in FL.
Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe has granted voting rights to as many as 60,000 convicted felons just in time for them to register to vote, nearly five times more than previously reported and enough to win the state for his long-time friend, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
McAuliffe sought to allow all of Virginia’s estimated 200,000 felons to vote, but state courts said each individual felon’s circumstances must be weighed. To get around that, McAuliffe used a mechanical autopen to rapidly sign thousands of letters, as if he had personally reviewed them...
Good on him. The permanent removal of the vote from people convicted of a crime yet served their sentence in many American states is a disgrace of international proportions.
>MattW said It is a quite corrupt manoeuvre, however.
>619 said why? giving more people a vote is always a good thing
>Matt W
Are you for real, 619?
The principle of votes for ex-prisoners is a different question from a Governor attempting to manipulate an election in his favoured direction using the power of his elected position.
McAuliffe has been Governor of Virginia for nearly 3 years.
The courts required individual cases to be reviewed. He organised a signing-machine, then he reportedly lied about how many he had done to the tune of reducing the number by 80% in his statements.
If it was a big principle of giving votes to former felons he would have done it in 2014.
He didn't.
It is just another variety of attempted gerrymander.
But that is the US Electoral System for you.
If you cared to actually research the matter, you'd realise he's been trying to do it since he was elected. The timing is a result of court challenges, and responses to them. (As an aside, Virginia is only one of four states which bars felons for life from voting.)
Also, on the other side of the coin, how many otherwise non-voters or Democrats for that matter might well be persuaded to vote for Trump on account of Governor McAuliffe's said actions?
zero. Why shouldnt ex convicts be allowed to vote?
Terrible headlines for May in tonight's Evening Standard. Gist is that Brexit requires a trade deal with India; India won't do one without increased immigration; ergo Brexit necessitates an increase in immigration. From India. Leave need to play this very carefully with the WCC. This isn't what they voted for at all. There will be cries of 'betrayal'.
I didn't see this particular one coming, but I did think all along that the smart racist would back EU membership. Migrants are a fact of life on an unequal planet and if the colour of people's skin bothers you you are better off getting them from eastern Europe than eastern Asia.
Huge swing to T R U M P in the first New Hampshire declarations !
Millsfield reported Trump 16 and Hillary 4. Dixville reported Hillary 4 and Trump 2. Hart's reported Clinton 17 and Trump 14. So overall it's Trump 32 and Hillary 25.
In 2012, these three little townships voted Obama 28/14, so T R U M P is doing really well with a huge swing to him so far !
This guy is an idiot. They weren't searching through 600 000 emails, they were searching for new content and new accounts, i.e. non matches with what they already had.
Trump can perhaps consider himself lucky that he has got away without the most lurid allegations getting airtime. I always said he was in way over his head with the Russians and he is, they have the kind of compromising information on his business and leisure activities to sink him.
Western intelligence agencies are aware of it, but they don't hold it.
Who holds what on Hillary Clinton though?
Clinton's sins are largely out there regarding the foundation and the emails. The latter may not be over yet anyway, within the FBI there is fairly strong divisions because the practical call would be to indict. The woman had Gamma level material amongst the stash found. Thats serious messing up.
Trump on the other hand, as I said, both business and leisure pursuits. The guys involvement in Russia goes back decades.
Is Trump actually solvent ?
Personally, he may well be covered. His business empire was pretty much on its knees at one point and there are still question marks over large segments of the Trump empire. Deutsche Bank at various stages extended him a lot of credit and his business empire is still massively in the hole but the curious thing was, DB's injections wouldn't have been enough if you are to believe some of the financial analysis.
Where did the rest therefore come from?
Bad Uncle Vlad one assumes? Personally I think shadowy Russian backing is one of the more appealing aspects of The Donald. I can find little about the prospect of an America with Russians pulling the strings any more frightening than America with Americans pulling the strings. Such a reverse takeover bid could actually make the world a good deal more stable.
Of course you do. There's nothing in this world you don't think good uncle Putin can sort out.
Comments
#Michigan:
Clinton 46% (+5)
Trump 41%
@GravisMarketing/@BreitbartNews 11/1-4
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Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
#Virginia:
Clinton 47% (+5)
Trump 42%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
New Mexico:
Clinton 45% (+8)
Trump 37%
Johnson 11%
Stein 3%
@GravisMarketing
Correct link with numerous state polls just out from:
- Gravis
- YouGov
- Ipsos
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/#now
In 2012 the exit poll in Indiana was GOP 54.5%, Dem 44.0%.
The actual result was GOP 54.1%, Dem 43.9%, so the exit poll was almost spot on.
The GOP margin of victory was 10.5%.
RCP's polling average has the GOP ahead by 10.7%.
538's forecast has the GOP ahead by 11.5%.
So if those sites are correct there should be a very small swing to the GOP in the state.
http://tinyurl.com/h8f62bw
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/photos/humpback-whales-at-the-uramba-bahia-malaga-natural-park-slideshow/polar-bear-felix-holds-portrait-u-presidential-nominee-photo-125109293.html
Trump 50 Clinton 46 Johnson 2 Stein 1
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Trafalgar_FL_November_2016.pdf
Marcus Hawkins Verified account
@HawkinsUSA
Does anyone think Trump is winning 26% of blacks, 41% of Hispanics, and 48% of Asians in Florida? If so, Trafalgar polls are for you
Gallup: On the day before the election, Obama job approval jumps to 56-41... up sharply in the past 3 days.
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Apparently. I live in England. All I really know is that Horatio lives in Miami and Grissom lives in Las Vegas. Other than that, my knowledge extends as far as "um"
Which makes you smarter than most.
The mexican-hispanics-are-heavily-breaking-for-clinton but non-mexican-hispanics-aren't logic is the difference between trump @ evens (or 6/5) and him being at 2/1 in FL.
Biggest forecast swings to Democrats: Utah, Idaho, Kansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alaska, Texas, Arizona.
Biggest forecast swings to GOP: Hawaii, Rhode Island, D.C., Vermont, New York, Iowa, Maine, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada.
Very little swing forecast: California, Florida, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Maryland.
:flash:
And yes - I misunderstood the process. Sorry.
Long voting queues would IMHO deter the less enthusiastic voter from voting. Remember the lol walking on crutches to vote in June?
Millsfield reported Trump 16 and Hillary 4. Dixville reported Hillary 4 and Trump 2. Hart's reported Clinton 17 and Trump 14. So overall it's Trump 32 and Hillary 25.
In 2012, these three little townships voted Obama 28/14, so T R U M P is doing really well with a huge swing to him so far !