I'm having a really hard time reading Theresa May. Sometimes I think she's playing a cunning, tactical long game, other times I reckon she always just agrees with the last person she spoke to.
It's very simple. She's trying to find a way through the mess she has inherited.
Well obviously, but has she more or less figured out the path she intends to take through the minefield, or is she just taking it one step at a time and waiting to see if she blows up?
She means what she says, says what she intends, and intends what she means.
Well obviously, but has she more or less figured out the path she intends to take through the minefield, or is she just taking it one step at a time and waiting to see if she blows up?
She seems to be letting Liam Fox walk ahead of her, whilst keeping a close eye on Boris who keeps wandering off on little explorations of his own. Not a bad approach, I guess.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
Ah Brexit in name only, I'd be fine with that, but Liam Fox will have an aneurysm but more crucially Graham Brady's postman will develop a hernia.
That's why it won't happen.
You're not reading the runes very well. Everything points this way.
I'm reading the runes very well.
If Mrs May tries to keep us in the customs union she'll face a leadership challenge.
There's more than 45 Tory MPs who want us out of the customs union even if it extremely bad for the economy.
It would depend on the overall package and what the future intent was.
Although no doubt George Osborne could always ride in as a knight in shining armour to save the day.
I live in Hope. Well I live in Dore, which isn't far from Hope.
Incidentally I have discovered a new species in the fascinating post-Brexit ecosystem.
I had drinks on Saturday with lefty friends. Old lefties, not quite Corbynite, but they liked Tony Benn.
We were discussing the referendum and I asked how they voted and one said, very reluctantly and quietly, "Remain". He was ashamed, and admitted it, as was my other
There you have it: the regretful Lefty Remainer. They exist.
Indeed, Lefties ie Corbynistas and Bennites and rightwingers and Thatcherites are surprisingly united in generally being positive about Brexit, it is wet Tories and Osbornites, LDs and Blairites who are still in the depths of depression and anger at the almost apocalyptic decision of the plebs!
Leftie Corbynistas are only positive about Brexit in the sense that they feel it will free them up to introduce a socialist paradise of five year tractor production planning in the UK without interference.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
Ah Brexit in name only, I'd be fine with that, but Liam Fox will have an aneurysm but more crucially Graham Brady's postman will develop a hernia.
That's why it won't happen.
You're not reading the runes very well. Everything points this way.
I'm reading the runes very well.
If Mrs May tries to keep us in the customs union she'll face a leadership challenge.
There's more than 45 Tory MPs who want us out of the customs union even if it extremely bad for the economy.
Which is why she'll need to call an election on the "deal". The most important of a generation. And the 45ers will look like the Oaty Bixxers they really are.
We can be out of the customs union and with tariff free (or limited tariff) access to the single market.
So Carney stays but will agree to be less overtly negative about Brexit, the Bank is going to raise its UK economic forecast by ~0.8 points. Interesting. I think Carney has been told it's soft-Brexit as well. I don't see how the PM would have convinced him to stay otherwise. Losing Carney earlier than 2018 would have caused a huge confidence loss, keeping him, and hopefully a more positive version, is definitely a net gain.
How is the first Cabinet minister to leave betting looking? Soft Brexit means Fox walks out surely?
Fox really depends on the customs union. If it is a Swiss style deal where we collect EU customs for re-exported goods on their behalf (essentially clearing the way for easy exports) then he'll stick around as we'll still be able to make independent trade deals. If it is customs union then his position is basically pointless and he'll probably be handed a P45.
I'm having a really hard time reading Theresa May. Sometimes I think she's playing a cunning, tactical long game, other times I reckon she always just agrees with the last person she spoke to.
It's very simple. She's trying to find a way through the mess she has inherited.
Well obviously, but has she more or less figured out the path she intends to take through the minefield, or is she just taking it one step at a time and waiting to see if she blows up?
She means what she says, says what she intends, and intends what she means.
So she has absolutely no idea WTF she's doing?
Anything except platitudes would be giving away the negotiating position.
Fox really depends on the customs union. If it is a Swiss style deal where we collect EU customs for re-exported goods on their behalf (essentially clearing the way for easy exports) then he'll stick around as we'll still be able to make independent trade deals. If it is customs union then his position is basically pointless and he'll probably be handed a P45.
Although there might also be the possibility (as @Charles pointed out last night after I'd gone to bed) of a customs union in specified sectors only, leaving the option of separate trade deals with other countries in other sectors. I'm not sure how practical that is, but it's something which has been suggested. Even with a full customs union, we could presumably do deals on services with other countries, since a customs union covers goods only.
I'm having a really hard time reading Theresa May. Sometimes I think she's playing a cunning, tactical long game, other times I reckon she always just agrees with the last person she spoke to.
It's very simple. She's trying to find a way through the mess she has inherited.
Well obviously, but has she more or less figured out the path she intends to take through the minefield, or is she just taking it one step at a time and waiting to see if she blows up?
She means what she says, says what she intends, and intends what she means.
So she has absolutely no idea WTF she's doing?
Anything except platitudes would be giving away the negotiating position.
Not this again, we had all this with Cameron when all these people here were claiming he had a non-bullshit renegotiation plan.
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
So Carney stays but will agree to be less overtly negative about Brexit, the Bank is going to raise its UK economic forecast by ~0.8 points. Interesting. I think Carney has been told it's soft-Brexit as well. I don't see how the PM would have convinced him to stay otherwise. Losing Carney earlier than 2018 would have caused a huge confidence loss, keeping him, and hopefully a more positive version, is definitely a net gain.
How is the first Cabinet minister to leave betting looking? Soft Brexit means Fox walks out surely?
Fox really depends on the customs union. If it is a Swiss style deal where we collect EU customs for re-exported goods on their behalf (essentially clearing the way for easy exports) then he'll stick around as we'll still be able to make independent trade deals. If it is customs union then his position is basically pointless and he'll probably be handed a P45.
Fox ain't going nowhere. He knows what side his bread is buttered. How many votes did he get in the leadership election again?
So Carney stays but will agree to be less overtly negative about Brexit, the Bank is going to raise its UK economic forecast by ~0.8 points. Interesting. I think Carney has been told it's soft-Brexit as well. I don't see how the PM would have convinced him to stay otherwise. Losing Carney earlier than 2018 would have caused a huge confidence loss, keeping him, and hopefully a more positive version, is definitely a net gain.
How is the first Cabinet minister to leave betting looking? Soft Brexit means Fox walks out surely?
He'll be Liam Fax - responsible for photocopying Brussels trade directives.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
Ah Brexit in name only, I'd be fine with that, but Liam Fox will have an aneurysm but more crucially Graham Brady's postman will develop a hernia.
That's why it won't happen.
You're not reading the runes very well. Everything points this way.
I'm reading the runes very well.
If Mrs May tries to keep us in the customs union she'll face a leadership challenge.
There's more than 45 Tory MPs who want us out of the customs union even if it extremely bad for the economy.
Which is why she'll need to call an election on the "deal". The most important of a generation. And the 45ers will look like the Oaty Bixxers they really are.
We can be out of the customs union and with tariff free (or limited tariff) access to the single market.
Hope so! But if the 45ers don't like it, I think there are umpteen ways of getting around them - and to deliver a proper majority for May at the same time.
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
Paul Nuttall though is now favourite to lead UKIP especially after Kassam withdrew and he appeals to the white working class who are most concerned about immigration and most supportive of hard BREXIT
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
Paul Nuttall though is now favourite to lead UKIP especially after Kassam withdrew and he appeals to the white working class who are most concerned about immigration and most supportive of hard BREXIT
Of course it's possible that UKIP will stage some sort of recovery under Nuttall.....in which case the political odds shift back to some sort of hard Brexit in which immigration control becomes paramount. That's broadly where my ultimate prediction lies for 2019, though less confident than a few weeks ago. Loads of fun ahead, and I won't be keeping a running commentary!!
I'm having a really hard time reading Theresa May. Sometimes I think she's playing a cunning, tactical long game, other times I reckon she always just agrees with the last person she spoke to.
It's very simple. She's trying to find a way through the mess she has inherited.
Well obviously, but has she more or less figured out the path she intends to take through the minefield, or is she just taking it one step at a time and waiting to see if she blows up?
She means what she says, says what she intends, and intends what she means.
So she has absolutely no idea WTF she's doing?
Anything except platitudes would be giving away the negotiating position.
Not this again, we had all this with Cameron when all these people here were claiming he had a non-bullshit renegotiation plan.
You think lessons haven't been learnt from that career-wrecking outcome?
I'm having a really hard time reading Theresa May. Sometimes I think she's playing a cunning, tactical long game, other times I reckon she always just agrees with the last person she spoke to.
There is a very bitter article from Nick Cohen in the Guardian a couple days back about Theresa May. An interesting piece. Is she empty and deceitful, as Nick Cohen claims or, in fact, moderate and representing the consensus of public opinion, as she should? I have some sympathy for Mrs May, as I am a corporate line, stay on message kind of person in real life. But I am also aware that it can look unprincipled.
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
Paul Nuttall though is now favourite to lead UKIP especially after Kassam withdrew and he appeals to the white working class who are most concerned about immigration and most supportive of hard BREXIT
Of course it's possible that UKIP will stage some sort of recovery under Nuttall.....in which case the political odds shift back to some sort of hard Brexit in which immigration control becomes paramount. That's broadly where my ultimate prediction lies for 2019, though less confident than a few weeks ago. Loads of fun ahead, and I won't be keeping a running commentary!!
Agreed the better UKIP does the more May will have to shift towards hard Brexit while the better the LDs do the more she will have to shift towards soft Brexit
Not this again, we had all this with Cameron when all these people here were claiming he had a non-bullshit renegotiation plan.
You think lessons haven't been learnt from that career-wrecking outcome?
Sure, they've learned that it's dangerous to be stuck in a box where you've promised the voters something ambitious but incoherent, and you depend on the goodwill of foreign countries to deliver it, and the voters expect you to be picking fights with the leaders of the said foreign countries.
What I'm not convinced of is that anybody's worked out a way to get out of the box.
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
Paul Nuttall though is now favourite to lead UKIP especially after Kassam withdrew and he appeals to the white working class who are most concerned about immigration and most supportive of hard BREXIT
It is not so long ago that it was Diana James you saw as saviour of UKIP , then it was Steven Woolfe , now it is Paul Nuttall , face up to it , UKIP are dying . 27 council by elections in November UKIP are standing in just 14 of them .
With a unified UKIP+CON candidate in Richmond the case for progressives to do same is overwhelming. Instead we have LAB's tedious tribalism
Lib Dems, losing (it) in Richmond.
Probably. Have to agree with Mike. Labour are implicitly aiding Brexit if/when they stand a candidate.
When someone writes the Brexit version of "Guilty Men", the Labour Party and Jeremy Corbyn will need to take their rightful place.
Indeed. How very dare a party with a distinctive agenda stand for election.
They have every right. I don't consider it a moral outage (how very dare?). Just crap strategy.
I don't think it is crap strategy. As soon as parties get into the habit of not standing in one election for local/tactical reasons, there become innumerable other reasons to not stand elsewhere and at best, you end up spending the pre-election justifying why you should even be on the playing field.
Besides, I find the notion that the Lib Dems and Corbynite Labour form some sort of 'progressive alliance' implausible. What exactly does 'progressive' mean in this context? It's meaningless guff from those who simply don't like the Tories.
I'm having a really hard time reading Theresa May. Sometimes I think she's playing a cunning, tactical long game, other times I reckon she always just agrees with the last person she spoke to.
It's very simple. She's trying to find a way through the mess she has inherited.
Well obviously, but has she more or less figured out the path she intends to take through the minefield, or is she just taking it one step at a time and waiting to see if she blows up?
She means what she says, says what she intends, and intends what she means.
So she has absolutely no idea WTF she's doing?
Anything except platitudes would be giving away the negotiating position.
She gave away her intended negotiating position to Carlos Ghosn of Nissan. Then Greg Clark, Business Secretary, gave away to the public what was given away to Nissan. At this stage it's statement of intent. We and Nissan can believe that it will be the way it gets negotiated, or not believe it, as we wish.
God awful problems with NatWest's online banking right now, even their helplines can only offer a "please call later" recorded message. RBS Group just gets worse and worse - little wonder they are still losing billions every year.
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
Paul Nuttall though is now favourite to lead UKIP especially after Kassam withdrew and he appeals to the white working class who are most concerned about immigration and most supportive of hard BREXIT
It is not so long ago that it was Diana James you saw as saviour of UKIP , then it was Steven Woolfe , now it is Paul Nuttall , face up to it , UKIP are dying . 27 council by elections in November UKIP are standing in just 14 of them .
UKIP's performance is essentially out of their hands, basically if May does hard Brexit then coupled with her grammar school policy they are finished, if May does soft Brexit in any form UKIP will likely see a revival regardless of who leads them, though Nuttall is probably best placed to capitalise
Not this again, we had all this with Cameron when all these people here were claiming he had a non-bullshit renegotiation plan.
You think lessons haven't been learnt from that career-wrecking outcome?
Sure, they've learned that it's dangerous to be stuck in a box where you've promised the voters something ambitious but incoherent, and you depend on the goodwill of foreign countries to deliver it, and the voters expect you to be picking fights with the leaders of the said foreign countries.
What I'm not convinced of is that anybody's worked out a way to get out of the box.
But that's the point of magic! You gasp in awe when they DO get out of the box....
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
Paul Nuttall though is now favourite to lead UKIP especially after Kassam withdrew and he appeals to the white working class who are most concerned about immigration and most supportive of hard BREXIT
It is not so long ago that it was Diana James you saw as saviour of UKIP , then it was Steven Woolfe , now it is Paul Nuttall , face up to it , UKIP are dying . 27 council by elections in November UKIP are standing in just 14 of them .
UKIP's performance is essentially out of their hands, basically if May does hard Brexit then coupled with her grammar school policy they are finished, if May does soft Brexit in any form UKIP will likely see a revival regardless of who leads them, though Nuttall is probably best placed to capitalise
Are you still expecting UKIP to beat Labour at the 2017 Local Elections?
So Carney stays but will agree to be less overtly negative about Brexit, the Bank is going to raise its UK economic forecast by ~0.8 points. Interesting. I think Carney has been told it's soft-Brexit as well. I don't see how the PM would have convinced him to stay otherwise. Losing Carney earlier than 2018 would have caused a huge confidence loss, keeping him, and hopefully a more positive version, is definitely a net gain.
You are confirming my belief that in the absence of hard news the press and many posters will invent news.
God awful problems with NatWest's online banking right now, even their helplines can only offer a "please call later" recorded message. RBS Group just gets worse and worse - little wonder they are still losing billions every year.
I don't know what you mean, RBS is keeping me in house and home.
I'm having a really hard time reading Theresa May. Sometimes I think she's playing a cunning, tactical long game, other times I reckon she always just agrees with the last person she spoke to.
There is a very bitter article from Nick Cohen in the Guardian a couple days back about Theresa May. An interesting piece. Is she empty and deceitful, as Nick Cohen claims or, in fact, moderate and representing the consensus of public opinion, as she should? I have some sympathy for Mrs May, as I am a corporate line, stay on message kind of person in real life. But I am also aware that it can look unprincipled.
I am no great supporter of Mrs May but Nick Cohen is in a deep slough of despond. His beloved Labour party has deserted him and he rails against anything else around.
As if May should be in any way scared by the prospect of a leadership challenge from the Hard Brexit nutters. She'd win it easily - most of the PCP are Remainers.
God awful problems with NatWest's online banking right now, even their helplines can only offer a "please call later" recorded message. RBS Group just gets worse and worse - little wonder they are still losing billions every year.
Welcome to nationalised industries. Lloyds 2016 Me = "I want to change from Account ABC to this Classic type you wrote to me about, but I cannot see how to do it online" Lloyds = "No you must phone us on 0NNNNNNN etc." Lloyds (on 3rd attempt to call them) "This will take at least 20 minutes as we need to check all your data"..........
Fintech are going to wipe out these types of banks.
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
Paul Nuttall though is now favourite to lead UKIP especially after Kassam withdrew and he appeals to the white working class who are most concerned about immigration and most supportive of hard BREXIT
It is not so long ago that it was Diana James you saw as saviour of UKIP , then it was Steven Woolfe , now it is Paul Nuttall , face up to it , UKIP are dying . 27 council by elections in November UKIP are standing in just 14 of them .
UKIP's performance is essentially out of their hands, basically if May does hard Brexit then coupled with her grammar school policy they are finished, if May does soft Brexit in any form UKIP will likely see a revival regardless of who leads them, though Nuttall is probably best placed to capitalise
Are you still expecting UKIP to beat Labour at the 2017 Local Elections?
It is County Council elections and rural and suburban areas are not natural Corbynista territory but more favourable to UKIP, they will be held two months after Article 50 is invoked so the more it looks like she is going for soft Brexit the better UKIP will do
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
Paul Nuttall though is now favourite to lead UKIP especially after Kassam withdrew and he appeals to the white working class who are most concerned about immigration and most supportive of hard BREXIT
It is not so long ago that it was Diana James you saw as saviour of UKIP , then it was Steven Woolfe , now it is Paul Nuttall , face up to it , UKIP are dying . 27 council by elections in November UKIP are standing in just 14 of them .
It isn't a huge surprise - the point of UKIP has been achieved. The majority of righties will come home to the Tories. The lefties, well, who knows - with Corbyn hugging all forms of immigration tight to his bosom, they'll probably switch to the Tories too.
Apart from organising the bin rota, Conservatives are the only party in town.
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
Paul Nuttall though is now favourite to lead UKIP especially after Kassam withdrew and he appeals to the white working class who are most concerned about immigration and most supportive of hard BREXIT
It is not so long ago that it was Diana James you saw as saviour of UKIP , then it was Steven Woolfe , now it is Paul Nuttall , face up to it , UKIP are dying . 27 council by elections in November UKIP are standing in just 14 of them .
It isn't a huge surprise - the point of UKIP has been achieved. The majority of righties will come home to the Tories. The lefties, well, who knows - with Corbyn hugging all forms of immigration tight to his bosom, they'll probably switch to the Tories too.
Apart from organising the bin rota, Conservatives are the only party in town.
Apropos the glorious autumn weather, for the last few mornings there have been the most beautiful autumn mists over Hampstead early in the morning. Yesterday, the mist stayed until nearly lunchtime and Whitestone Pond looked magnificently eery. Coupled with the autumn colours and the mild temperatures it lifts the heart to be outside.
Autumn is the most sensuous of seasons: a feast for the eyes, smell (think damp leaves in woods, smoke from bonfires) and for gardeners the sheer joy of planting bulbs in the soft and still warm earth.
The only downside is that a squirrel is busy trying to dig up my spring bulbs as fast as I plant them. If only cats could be trained to chase the squirrel away........
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
Paul Nuttall though is now favourite to lead UKIP especially after Kassam withdrew and he appeals to the white working class who are most concerned about immigration and most supportive of hard BREXIT
It is not so long ago that it was Diana James you saw as saviour of UKIP , then it was Steven Woolfe , now it is Paul Nuttall , face up to it , UKIP are dying . 27 council by elections in November UKIP are standing in just 14 of them .
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
Paul Nuttall though is now favourite to lead UKIP especially after Kassam withdrew and he appeals to the white working class who are most concerned about immigration and most supportive of hard BREXIT
It is not so long ago that it was Diana James you saw as saviour of UKIP , then it was Steven Woolfe , now it is Paul Nuttall , face up to it , UKIP are dying . 27 council by elections in November UKIP are standing in just 14 of them .
UKIP's performance is essentially out of their hands, basically if May does hard Brexit then coupled with her grammar school policy they are finished, if May does soft Brexit in any form UKIP will likely see a revival regardless of who leads them, though Nuttall is probably best placed to capitalise
Are you still expecting UKIP to beat Labour at the 2017 Local Elections?
It is County Council elections and rural and suburban areas are not natural Corbynista territory but more favourable to UKIP, they will be held two months after Article 50 is invoked so the more it looks like she is going for soft Brexit the better UKIP will do
But the urban areas also have county councillors , and 2013 was a high water mark for UKIP having taken place barely two months after their success at the Eastleigh by election.I expect them to be very much on the defensive and likely to lose seats to the other main parties.Labour also performed much more poorly in 2013 than in 2012 , and for that reason is better placed to defend its position next year than May 2016. That also depends on how national polling develops in the next six months,but I suspect most of the Tory lead will have evaporated by next May.
God awful problems with NatWest's online banking right now, even their helplines can only offer a "please call later" recorded message. RBS Group just gets worse and worse - little wonder they are still losing billions every year.
Welcome to nationalised industries. Lloyds 2016 Me = "I want to change from Account ABC to this Classic type you wrote to me about, but I cannot see how to do it online" Lloyds = "No you must phone us on 0NNNNNNN etc." Lloyds (on 3rd attempt to call them) "This will take at least 20 minutes as we need to check all your data"..........
Fintech are going to wipe out these types of banks.
I note Lloyds Regular Saver only pays 3% interest now, I have heard some rumours the Club lloyds is moving to 3% as well. Still worth keeping (just) for me, mind - the Reg saver not worth it at 3% though.
Apropos the glorious autumn weather, for the last few mornings there have been the most beautiful autumn mists over Hampstead early in the morning. Yesterday, the mist stayed until nearly lunchtime and Whitestone Pond looked magnificently eery. Coupled with the autumn colours and the mild temperatures it lifts the heart to be outside.
Autumn is the most sensuous of seasons: a feast for the eyes, smell (think damp leaves in woods, smoke from bonfires) and for gardeners the sheer joy of planting bulbs in the soft and still warm earth.
The only downside is that a squirrel is busy trying to dig up my spring bulbs as fast as I plant them. If only cats could be trained to chase the squirrel away........
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
Paul Nuttall though is now favourite to lead UKIP especially after Kassam withdrew and he appeals to the white working class who are most concerned about immigration and most supportive of hard BREXIT
It is not so long ago that it was Diana James you saw as saviour of UKIP , then it was Steven Woolfe , now it is Paul Nuttall , face up to it , UKIP are dying . 27 council by elections in November UKIP are standing in just 14 of them .
UKIP's performance is essentially out of their hands, basically if May does hard Brexit then coupled with her grammar school policy they are finished, if May does soft Brexit in any form UKIP will likely see a revival regardless of who leads them, though Nuttall is probably best placed to capitalise
Are you still expecting UKIP to beat Labour at the 2017 Local Elections?
It is County Council elections and rural and suburban areas are not natural Corbynista territory but more favourable to UKIP, they will be held two months after Article 50 is invoked so the more it looks like she is going for soft Brexit the better UKIP will do
I doubt it, Mr. HYUFD, I really do doubt it. Some on here may talk endlessly about hard and soft Brexit (not that those terms have commonly understood meanings) but the average voter doesn't. I doubt if one voter in ten even gives a thought to the subject from one week to the next, they know TM has said we are leaving the EU and that is that.
As for UKIP, unless they can reinvent themselves as a party for the WWC and steal voters from Labour, I think they are doomed and, in my view, rightly so. They have achieved what they set out to achieve and no longer have a purpose.
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
Paul Nuttall though is now favourite to lead UKIP especially after Kassam withdrew and he appeals to the white working class who are most concerned about immigration and most supportive of hard BREXIT
It is not so long ago that it was Diana James you saw as saviour of UKIP , then it was Steven Woolfe , now it is Paul Nuttall , face up to it , UKIP are dying . 27 council by elections in November UKIP are standing in just 14 of them .
UKIP's performance is essentially out of their hands, basically if May does hard Brexit then coupled with her grammar school policy they are finished, if May does soft Brexit in any form UKIP will likely see a revival regardless of who leads them, though Nuttall is probably best placed to capitalise
Are you still expecting UKIP to beat Labour at the 2017 Local Elections?
It is County Council elections and rural and suburban areas are not natural Corbynista territory but more favourable to UKIP, they will be held two months after Article 50 is invoked so the more it looks like she is going for soft Brexit the better UKIP will do
But the urban areas also have county councillors , and 2013 was a high water mark for UKIP having taken place barely two months after their success at the Eastleigh by election.I expect them to be very much on the defensive and likely to lose seats to the other main parties.Labour also performed much more poorly in 2013 than in 2012 , and for that reason is better placed to defend its position next year than May 2016. That also depends on how national polling develops in the next six months,but I suspect most of the Tory lead will have evaporated by next May.
None of the big metropolitan cities Labour does best in are up next year. Labour also were polling much better in 2013 under Ed Miliband than they are now under Corbyn, most of the UKIP vote has stuck with it despite some leakage to May and the more soft Brexit looks on the cards the better they will do
As if May should be in any way scared by the prospect of a leadership challenge from the Hard Brexit nutters. She'd win it easily - most of the PCP are Remainers.
I really don't think they are. How many Tory MPs have said they will over-ride the wishes of the voters and hamper Brexit? Some names and numbers would be good here...
Apropos the glorious autumn weather, for the last few mornings there have been the most beautiful autumn mists over Hampstead early in the morning. Yesterday, the mist stayed until nearly lunchtime and Whitestone Pond looked magnificently eery. Coupled with the autumn colours and the mild temperatures it lifts the heart to be outside.
Autumn is the most sensuous of seasons: a feast for the eyes, smell (think damp leaves in woods, smoke from bonfires) and for gardeners the sheer joy of planting bulbs in the soft and still warm earth.
The only downside is that a squirrel is busy trying to dig up my spring bulbs as fast as I plant them. If only cats could be trained to chase the squirrel away........
You need a Harris Hawk.....
I do. Still, with a dog and cats and foxes two-a-penny in the street you'd have thought I'd have no squirrel problem. Instead, the little blighter seems to view me as some sort of Waitrose for the Animal World.......
God awful problems with NatWest's online banking right now, even their helplines can only offer a "please call later" recorded message. RBS Group just gets worse and worse - little wonder they are still losing billions every year.
Welcome to nationalised industries. Lloyds 2016 Me = "I want to change from Account ABC to this Classic type you wrote to me about, but I cannot see how to do it online" Lloyds = "No you must phone us on 0NNNNNNN etc." Lloyds (on 3rd attempt to call them) "This will take at least 20 minutes as we need to check all your data"..........
Fintech are going to wipe out these types of banks.
Do you have any readies invested in any Fintech companies ?
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
Paul Nuttall though is now favourite to lead UKIP especially after Kassam withdrew and he appeals to the white working class who are most concerned about immigration and most supportive of hard BREXIT
It is not so long ago that it was Diana James you saw as saviour of UKIP , then it was Steven Woolfe , now it is Paul Nuttall , face up to it , UKIP are dying . 27 council by elections in November UKIP are standing in just 14 of them .
UKIP's performance is essentially out of their hands, basically if May does hard Brexit then coupled with her grammar school policy they are finished, if May does soft Brexit in any form UKIP will likely see a revival regardless of who leads them, though Nuttall is probably best placed to capitalise
Are you still expecting UKIP to beat Labour at the 2017 Local Elections?
It is County Council elections and rural and suburban areas are not natural Corbynista territory but more favourable to UKIP, they will be held two months after Article 50 is invoked so the more it looks like she is going for soft Brexit the better UKIP will do
I doubt it, Mr. HYUFD, I really do doubt it. Some on here may talk endlessly about hard and soft Brexit (not that those terms have commonly understood meanings) but the average voter doesn't. I doubt if one voter in ten even gives a thought to the subject from one week to the next, they know TM has said we are leaving the EU and that is that.
As for UKIP, unless they can reinvent themselves as a party for the WWC and steal voters from Labour, I think they are doomed and, in my view, rightly so. They have achieved what they set out to achieve and no longer have a purpose.
They may not talk about hard Brexit but they do talk about controlling immigration which is basically the same. If May fails to introduce a points system for example or sufficiently control immigration for hardcore Leavers then UKIP will be well placed to fill the gap. Nuttall is also a candidate called from central casting to appeal to the white working class
For those, like yours truly, who have backed Hillary to win comfortably, i.e. by gaining 300+ ECVs, they might now wish to consider investing in a little insurance by backing SkyBet's 270 - 299 ECV band at decimal odds of 8.0, which looks very fair value to me and is certainly well ahead of the 5.56 net on offer from BetfairEx. DYOR.
For those, like yours truly, who have backed Hillary to win comfortably, i.e. by gaining 300+ ECVs, they might now wish to consider investing in a little insurance by backing SkyBet's 270 - 299 ECV band at decimal odds of 8.0, which looks very fair value to me and is certainly well ahead of the 5.56 net on offer from BetfairEx. DYOR.
Good tip.
I still expect the final PV to be +->2.5% compared to the RCP average.
7/1 is definitely value and will more likely than not shorten over the next few days.
Jordan FBI has been investigating the Clinton Found 4 months & Loretta Lynch's Justice Dpt has been trying 2 shut them down https://t.co/sx0vOlcVkj WSJ
For those, like yours truly, who have backed Hillary to win comfortably, i.e. by gaining 300+ ECVs, they might now wish to consider investing in a little insurance by backing SkyBet's 270 - 299 ECV band at decimal odds of 8.0, which looks very fair value to me and is certainly well ahead of the 5.56 net on offer from BetfairEx. DYOR.
Good tip.
I agree that looks like value.
That might be the best £3.57 I've bet all election.
Apropos the glorious autumn weather, for the last few mornings there have been the most beautiful autumn mists over Hampstead early in the morning. Yesterday, the mist stayed until nearly lunchtime and Whitestone Pond looked magnificently eery. Coupled with the autumn colours and the mild temperatures it lifts the heart to be outside.
Autumn is the most sensuous of seasons: a feast for the eyes, smell (think damp leaves in woods, smoke from bonfires) and for gardeners the sheer joy of planting bulbs in the soft and still warm earth.
The only downside is that a squirrel is busy trying to dig up my spring bulbs as fast as I plant them. If only cats could be trained to chase the squirrel away........
You need a Harris Hawk.....
I do. Still, with a dog and cats and foxes two-a-penny in the street you'd have thought I'd have no squirrel problem. Instead, the little blighter seems to view me as some sort of Waitrose for the Animal World.......
I've seen far fewer squirrels this year, which may be down to my neighbour using his howitzer to take pot-shots at them (although I haven't heard it ringing around the valleys) or more likely, we have had buzzards nesting for the first time in their preferred tree....
For those, like yours truly, who have backed Hillary to win comfortably, i.e. by gaining 300+ ECVs, they might now wish to consider investing in a little insurance by backing SkyBet's 270 - 299 ECV band at decimal odds of 8.0, which looks very fair value to me and is certainly well ahead of the 5.56 net on offer from BetfairEx. DYOR.
Good spot, but since they offered me a maximum stake of £3.57 I've instead withdrawn the money I still had with them. A good deal for anyone who can get on, though.
For those, like yours truly, who have backed Hillary to win comfortably, i.e. by gaining 300+ ECVs, they might now wish to consider investing in a little insurance by backing SkyBet's 270 - 299 ECV band at decimal odds of 8.0, which looks very fair value to me and is certainly well ahead of the 5.56 net on offer from BetfairEx. DYOR.
Good tip.
I agree that looks like value.
That might be the best £3.57 I've bet all election.
May's ringing endorsement of Carney is a huge snub to the hard-Right. After Cameron and Osborne he was the principal figure of their hate. Heffer, in particular, must be smarting. His wisdom was ignored utterly.
The shambolic descent of UKIP into chaotic farce has markedly reduced the political risk of soft Brexit as, to a lesser extent, will any LibDem renaissance (even a modest one post by-elections). But the strength of the Tory backbench ultras is far from being insignificant, reinforced my their media allies in the Telegraph, Mail and Sun, and that will spell trouble for Mrs M in what could be only months before the 2020 election. And we all know what voters think of divided parties.....
UKIP's performance is essentially out of their hands, basically if May does hard Brexit then coupled with her grammar school policy they are finished, if May does soft Brexit in any form UKIP will likely see a revival regardless of who leads them, though Nuttall is probably best placed to capitalise
Are you still expecting UKIP to beat Labour at the 2017 Local Elections?
It is County Council elections and rural and suburban areas are not natural Corbynista territory but more favourable to UKIP, they will be held two months after Article 50 is invoked so the more it looks like she is going for soft Brexit the better UKIP will do
But the urban areas also have county councillors , and 2013 was a high water mark for UKIP having taken place barely two months after their success at the Eastleigh by election.I expect them to be very much on the defensive and likely to lose seats to the other main parties.Labour also performed much more poorly in 2013 than in 2012 , and for that reason is better placed to defend its position next year than May 2016. That also depends on how national polling develops in the next six months,but I suspect most of the Tory lead will have evaporated by next May.
None of the big metropolitan cities Labour does best in are up next year. Labour also were polling much better in 2013 under Ed Miliband than they are now under Corbyn, most of the UKIP vote has stuck with it despite some leakage to May and the more soft Brexit looks on the cards the better they will do
But - with a few exceptions - UKIP's performance at local by elections has been pretty poor, sometimes failing to contest seats previously held. There is no reason to expect the kind of boost given by the Eastleigh by election at the end of February 2013. They have no momentum , and that is very unlikely to change over the next six months. I would also anticipate some recovery in Labour's polling position as May's honeymoon recedes.
They may not talk about hard Brexit but they do talk about controlling immigration which is basically the same. If May fails to introduce a points system for example or sufficiently control immigration for hardcore Leavers then UKIP will be well placed to fill the gap. Nuttall is also a candidate called from central casting to appeal to the white working class
Hasn't TM already ruled out a points system for immigration saying it would not be right for the UK? I am sure I read that a couple of months back. She has also said that she will stop the open to all arrangements we have at the moment. So I have no idea what the final result will be.
However, I remain deeply sceptical that very many people will be voting UKIP in 2020.
With a unified UKIP+CON candidate in Richmond the case for progressives to do same is overwhelming. Instead we have LAB's tedious tribalism
Lib Dems, losing (it) in Richmond.
Probably. Have to agree with Mike. Labour are implicitly aiding Brexit if/when they stand a candidate.
When someone writes the Brexit version of "Guilty Men", the Labour Party and Jeremy Corbyn will need to take their rightful place.
Indeed. How very dare a party with a distinctive agenda stand for election.
They have every right. I don't consider it a moral outage (how very dare?). Just crap strategy.
I don't think it is crap strategy. As soon as parties get into the habit of not standing in one election for local/tactical reasons, there become innumerable other reasons to not stand elsewhere and at best, you end up spending the pre-election justifying why you should even be on the playing field.
Besides, I find the notion that the Lib Dems and Corbynite Labour form some sort of 'progressive alliance' implausible. What exactly does 'progressive' mean in this context? It's meaningless guff from those who simply don't like the Tories.
I'm not advocating a "progressive alliance", whatever that is. I'm suggesting that in order to aid the weakening of May's majority and government, a smart Labour Party would not stand in this slightly farcical by-election.
The circumstances mean there's never been a more plausible reason not to stand.
Another week and I see PB is infested with bitter remoaners still furious that Nissan hasn't left Britain.
It is amusing though to see the leftist snobs and Continuity Osbornes in their bizarre alliance.
Yawn. You obviously missed where I've said below that I think the government's guarantees are irrelevant.
Stop whinging you bitter leavers . You won, and you're still behaving like spoilt brats. I honestly think people such as yourself are constantly negative because you don't have anything positive to contribute.
Nothing. Nada. Zilch.
Dear me you are touchy and so early in the day.
As Nick Palmer has pointed out you always go ad hominem so quickly and so needlessly.
Now I'm off to create some wealth have a nice day on PB.
LOL. I'm not in the least bit touchy; just pointing out something, which I see you did not choose to answer. When did you last post something remotely positive?
As for your good self and ad hominem; your first post was a rather good example. Besides, it would be hard for my post to be ad hominem against your own ad hominem post, which was essentially just "remainers stink!"
I will let my previous reply to Nick stand.
I see you've responded whilst I was working - I would have hoped for something more coherent.
As I've said previously I'm a habitual cynic but if its positivity you want from me then I'll repeat what I've said many times before that I'd like to see a society which concentrates on quality of life issues instead of the cult of GDP (not GDP per capita) and the worship of ever increasing house prices.
I find its the simple, and often free, pleasures in life which are the most enjoyable (such as the walk in the lovely weather I was able to take at lunchtime). Unfortunately we have become a society where we are constantly exhorted to consume more with a consequential constipation of greed and inequality.
Comments
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hope,_Derbyshire
Now 5 FBI Field Offices are investigating the Clinton Foundation. https://t.co/bnsV38nxiM
Brave decision, I'd have thought.
What I'm not convinced of is that anybody's worked out a way to get out of the box.
Besides, I find the notion that the Lib Dems and Corbynite Labour form some sort of 'progressive alliance' implausible. What exactly does 'progressive' mean in this context? It's meaningless guff from those who simply don't like the Tories.
RBS Group just gets worse and worse - little wonder they are still losing billions every year.
Lloyds 2016
Me = "I want to change from Account ABC to this Classic type you wrote to me about, but I cannot see how to do it online"
Lloyds = "No you must phone us on 0NNNNNNN etc."
Lloyds (on 3rd attempt to call them) "This will take at least 20 minutes as we need to check all your data"..........
Fintech are going to wipe out these types of banks.
Apart from organising the bin rota, Conservatives are the only party in town.
Clinton ..... 315 ECVs (-4)
Trump ....... 222 ECVs (+4)
The POTUS spread-betting markets remain closed.
At lease we have a currency to devalue - unlike the Greeks.
Autumn is the most sensuous of seasons: a feast for the eyes, smell (think damp leaves in woods, smoke from bonfires) and for gardeners the sheer joy of planting bulbs in the soft and still warm earth.
The only downside is that a squirrel is busy trying to dig up my spring bulbs as fast as I plant them. If only cats could be trained to chase the squirrel away........
As for UKIP, unless they can reinvent themselves as a party for the WWC and steal voters from Labour, I think they are doomed and, in my view, rightly so. They have achieved what they set out to achieve and no longer have a purpose.
Double the margin to close early (in theory) don't forget..
For those, like yours truly, who have backed Hillary to win comfortably, i.e. by gaining 300+ ECVs, they might now wish to consider investing in a little insurance by backing SkyBet's 270 - 299 ECV band at decimal odds of 8.0, which looks very fair value to me and is certainly well ahead of the 5.56 net on offer from BetfairEx.
DYOR.
I still expect the final PV to be +->2.5% compared to the RCP average.
7/1 is definitely value and will more likely than not shorten over the next few days.
FBI has been investigating the Clinton Found 4 months & Loretta Lynch's Justice Dpt has been trying 2 shut them down https://t.co/sx0vOlcVkj WSJ
NEW THREAD
Fond memories.
He's a Hillary plant. The tattoo is a big giveaway. What a stupid nitwit.
Jason
@jaketapper I found your "Jew-S-A guy up to further debauchery. Took me 5 mins.
#Veritas
#PodestaEmails24 https://t.co/MugTth1YJh
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/24/its-time-for-mark-carney-went-the-same-way-as-george-osborne/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/02/thoughts-on-jeremy-corbyn-mark-carney-and-carla-brunis-sex-life/
He even went as far as to compare Theresa to his great hero Enoch. Surely this assessment is now under review.
I would also anticipate some recovery in Labour's polling position as May's honeymoon recedes.
However, I remain deeply sceptical that very many people will be voting UKIP in 2020.
I'm not advocating a "progressive alliance", whatever that is. I'm suggesting that in order to aid the weakening of May's majority and government, a smart Labour Party would not stand in this slightly farcical by-election.
The circumstances mean there's never been a more plausible reason not to stand.
Dyson are an ingenious company, but I'm not sure I fancy them as an Apple.
As I've said previously I'm a habitual cynic but if its positivity you want from me then I'll repeat what I've said many times before that I'd like to see a society which concentrates on quality of life issues instead of the cult of GDP (not GDP per capita) and the worship of ever increasing house prices.
I find its the simple, and often free, pleasures in life which are the most enjoyable (such as the walk in the lovely weather I was able to take at lunchtime). Unfortunately we have become a society where we are constantly exhorted to consume more with a consequential constipation of greed and inequality.