With a unified UKIP+CON candidate in Richmond the case for progressives to do same is overwhelming. Instead we have LAB's tedious tribalism
It's an argument. Will the perception that LD = Labour (or vv) help them in the South West? Seems slightly short-termist but I guess that for a starving man anything is edible.
Re: "Nissan's post-Brexit deal could lead to 'colossal' bills for taxpayer " Could it also lead to World War III or could it lead to the second coming or could it lead to the demise of the Guardian newspaper?
Far worse than that it could lead to the Guardian morphing into The Sun ...
Don't be silly. There's no way The Guardian will ever be popular or profitable.
The Guardian is popular but not profitable.
"The statistics show that the Guardian is the most-read news site in the UK with 10.4 million readers, 523,000 more than the Mail Online which has 9.9 million. The Guardian took over from the Mail Online as the most read daily newspaper website in the UK in March.
The report is based on NRS data from July 2012 to June 2013 and comScore data from June 2013. Duplicates are removed so people who read online and in print are not counted twice."
That is a fair point, although I wonder how 'readers' are defined. I imagine that individual articles do quite well out of social media links.
One of the reasons why the Mail Online has lost readership is that it has become very much trashier, comic like and generally downmarket over recent months. So much so that I can't work out which socio-economic group they are targeting .... I wonder whether even they know?
The Guardian is increasingly difficult to read (online) and the amount of quality commentary there is in decline as far as I can tell - ironically given the investment in numbers of journalists.
They appear to be apeing the Mail Online but I think they're liable to alienate their natural audience - and indeed the audience *most* likely to part with money - when they move as they inevitably will to a Times model.
Of the world's big trade blocs: the US, China, the EU, the Eurasian Economic Union and Mercosur, the EU has by far the largest number FTAs with countries outside it.
The US has FTAs with Australia, Canada, Mexico and errr... that's about it right now. (Although that will change radically in the event TPP is passed.)
China does somewhat better with ASEAN, Pakistan, Chile, New Zealand, Pakistan, Korea, Switzerland and Australia. But, not all of these are true FTAs - there are lots of categories of goods (like luxury watches!) where Swiss exports to China are still subject to tariffs, for example.
The Eurasian Economic Union counts deals with Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Moldova, Ukraine and Serbia.
Mercosur manages Israel, Egypt, Palestine, and Lebanon.
The EU has... Turkey, Georgia, the EFTA states, Moldova, Ukraine, Singapore, Canada, Vietnam, and Korea. The EU also has pretty serious agreements with Eastern and South African states that remove the vast bulk of tariffs (see: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:75184c8b-f721-4002-87c8-e301d4adef11.0019.01/DOC_2&format=PDF). Indeed, for all the rhetoric on here, the EU is a lot kinder to African imports than any of the other large trading blocs.
And EFTA has FTAs with
Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Canada Central American States (Costa Rica, Guatemala and Panama) Chile Colombia Egypt Georgia Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Hong Kong, China Israel Jordan Korea, Republic of Lebanon Macedonia Mexico Montenegro Morocco Palestinian Authority Peru Philippines Serbia Singapore Southern African Customs Union (SACU) Tunisia Turkey Ukraine
In addition to the EEA deal with the 28 EU states.
Battleground states - Remington - No sample sizes given - All 30 Oct
CO - Clinton 45 - Trump 44 FL - Clinton 44 - Trump 48 NV - Clinton 44 - Trump 48 NC - Clinton 45 - Trump 47 OH - Clinton 43 - Trump 48 PA - Clinton 45 .. Trump 43 VA - Clinton 47 .. Trump 43 WI - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
Note - Except FL little change from 23 Oct from this GOP leaning pollster.
Yes, but Florida is desperately bad news for Hillary with 29 ECVs, a potential swing therefore of 58 votes, it ties with NY as the 3rd most populous state in the Union.
Of the world's big trade blocs: the US, China, the EU, the Eurasian Economic Union and Mercosur, the EU has by far the largest number FTAs with countries outside it.
The US has FTAs with Australia, Canada, Mexico and errr... that's about it right now. (Although that will change radically in the event TPP is passed.)
China does somewhat better with ASEAN, Pakistan, Chile, New Zealand, Pakistan, Korea, Switzerland and Australia. But, not all of these are true FTAs - there are lots of categories of goods (like luxury watches!) where Swiss exports to China are still subject to tariffs, for example.
The Eurasian Economic Union counts deals with Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Moldova, Ukraine and Serbia.
Mercosur manages Israel, Egypt, Palestine, and Lebanon.
The EU has... Turkey, Georgia, the EFTA states, Moldova, Ukraine, Singapore, Canada, Vietnam, and Korea. The EU also has pretty serious agreements with Eastern and South African states that remove the vast bulk of tariffs (see: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:75184c8b-f721-4002-87c8-e301d4adef11.0019.01/DOC_2&format=PDF). Indeed, for all the rhetoric on here, the EU is a lot kinder to African imports than any of the other large trading blocs.
And EFTA has FTAs with
Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Canada Central American States (Costa Rica, Guatemala and Panama) Chile Colombia Egypt Georgia Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Hong Kong, China Israel Jordan Korea, Republic of Lebanon Macedonia Mexico Montenegro Morocco Palestinian Authority Peru Philippines Serbia Singapore Southern African Customs Union (SACU) Tunisia Turkey Ukraine
In addition to the EEA deal with the 28 EU states.
So I suggest that trumps the EU.
Given that @rcs1000 has suggested joining EFTA I think you're in agreement...
'Nicola Sturgeon is expected to publish plans within the next few weeks for Scotland to become the official successor state to the UK and take its place within the European Union.
The blueprint will feature plans for Scotland to forge a soft Brexit on its own within the UK. But it is also expected to include plans for Scotland to remain part of the EU if a separate Scottish Brexit deal cannot be negotiated, not just as an independent nation but as the UK’s “successor state”.
Grandstanding nonsense on stilts,but anything to stay in the spotlight and not look completely irrelevant.
Excellent idea. As the successor state, they'd be liable for the UK's sovereign debts.
'Nicola Sturgeon is expected to publish plans within the next few weeks for Scotland to become the official successor state to the UK and take its place within the European Union.
The blueprint will feature plans for Scotland to forge a soft Brexit on its own within the UK. But it is also expected to include plans for Scotland to remain part of the EU if a separate Scottish Brexit deal cannot be negotiated, not just as an independent nation but as the UK’s “successor state”.
Grandstanding nonsense on stilts,but anything to stay in the spotlight and not look completely irrelevant.
Excellent idea. As the successor state, they'd be liable for the UK's sovereign debts.
After a swift default we'd all escape scot-free, so to speak.
'Nicola Sturgeon is expected to publish plans within the next few weeks for Scotland to become the official successor state to the UK and take its place within the European Union.
The blueprint will feature plans for Scotland to forge a soft Brexit on its own within the UK. But it is also expected to include plans for Scotland to remain part of the EU if a separate Scottish Brexit deal cannot be negotiated, not just as an independent nation but as the UK’s “successor state”.
Grandstanding nonsense on stilts,but anything to stay in the spotlight and not look completely irrelevant.
Excellent idea. As the successor state, they'd be liable for the UK's sovereign debts.
Even better! If this is SNP official policy it appears they'd like to bankrupt themselves simultaneously with taking up the UK's "great power" responsibilities : security council, NATO, IMF etc.
Excellent idea. As the successor state, they'd be liable for the UK's sovereign debts.
Damn I was just about to say that, apply Nat "logic" and Scotland would be left with all the debt, and immediately collapse under the weight of servicing it.
Given the EU will want us out by the next european elections I'm not sure how Sturgeon gets her indyref2 + Act of Parliament in time to be considered a successor state anyway even if that were likely to happen (which it isn't).
Battleground states - Remington - No sample sizes given - All 30 Oct
CO - Clinton 45 - Trump 44 FL - Clinton 44 - Trump 48 NV - Clinton 44 - Trump 48 NC - Clinton 45 - Trump 47 OH - Clinton 43 - Trump 48 PA - Clinton 45 .. Trump 43 VA - Clinton 47 .. Trump 43 WI - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
Note - Except FL little change from 23 Oct from this GOP leaning pollster.
Battleground states - Remington - No sample sizes given - All 30 Oct
CO - Clinton 45 - Trump 44 FL - Clinton 44 - Trump 48 NV - Clinton 44 - Trump 48 NC - Clinton 45 - Trump 47 OH - Clinton 43 - Trump 48 PA - Clinton 45 .. Trump 43 VA - Clinton 47 .. Trump 43 WI - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
Note - Except FL little change from 23 Oct from this GOP leaning pollster.
Yes, but Florida is desperately bad news for Hillary with 29 ECVs, a potential swing therefore of 58 votes, it ties with NY as the 3rd most populous state in the Union.
I'd be a tad cautious about these numbers .... just saying ....
With a unified UKIP+CON candidate in Richmond the case for progressives to do same is overwhelming. Instead we have LAB's tedious tribalism
Almost every concept in that tweet is wrong
This has been emotional. OGH "For the moment my money, at odds of up 6/4, is on the LDs. They are the form team at the moment." October 26th OGH "The Richmond Park battle with Zac is an absolutely must win for the LDs" October 25th
Battleground states - Remington - No sample sizes given - All 30 Oct
CO - Clinton 45 - Trump 44 FL - Clinton 44 - Trump 48 NV - Clinton 44 - Trump 48 NC - Clinton 45 - Trump 47 OH - Clinton 43 - Trump 48 PA - Clinton 45 .. Trump 43 VA - Clinton 47 .. Trump 43 WI - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
Note - Except FL little change from 23 Oct from this GOP leaning pollster.
Yes, but Florida is desperately bad news for Hillary with 29 ECVs, a potential swing therefore of 58 votes, it ties with NY as the 3rd most populous state in the Union.
I'd be a tad cautious about these numbers .... just saying ....
Fair comment Jack, it's likely to be a close call either way.
That shade of Blue on the Pan Handle as shown on 538.com's state by state political map appears to get ever paler, or is that just my imagination playing tricks?
My Grand Theory Of American Elections is that you should forget about the state polling and the whole "51 separate elections" bollocks and just apply a uniform national swing. If you do that, Trump still has a bit more left to gain in Florida.
The Treasury already informed markets in 2014 that it would take responsibility for UK debt in event of Scottish independence. The arrangements Scotland comes to with the EU are irrelevant to that and in any case the terminology is not "successor" state in international law.
Finally the country which keeps the debt also keeps the assets. That is if you keep the Bank of England and sterling then you also keep the debt - or you can come to an arrangement. In other words you get the bun or the penny but not both.
With a unified UKIP+CON candidate in Richmond the case for progressives to do same is overwhelming. Instead we have LAB's tedious tribalism
Almost every concept in that tweet is wrong
This has been emotional. OGH "For the moment my money, at odds of up 6/4, is on the LDs. They are the form team at the moment." October 26th OGH "The Richmond Park battle with Zac is an absolutely must win for the LDs" October 25th
He just wants his beloved party to be relevant to someone, anyone?
Given the EU will want us out by the next european elections I'm not sure how Sturgeon gets her indyref2 + Act of Parliament in time to be considered a successor state anyway even if that were likely to happen (which it isn't).
But of course she could get a UK wide referendum on Scottish indy through Westminster with a snap of her fingers, no?
Of the world's big trade blocs: the US, China, the EU, the Eurasian Economic Union and Mercosur, the EU has by far the largest number FTAs with countries outside it.
The US has FTAs with Australia, Canada, Mexico and errr... that's about it right now. (Although that will change radically in the event TPP is passed.)
China does somewhat better with ASEAN, Pakistan, Chile, New Zealand, Pakistan, Korea, Switzerland and Australia. But, not all of these are true FTAs - there are lots of categories of goods (like luxury watches!) where Swiss exports to China are still subject to tariffs, for example.
The Eurasian Economic Union counts deals with Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Moldova, Ukraine and Serbia.
Mercosur manages Israel, Egypt, Palestine, and Lebanon.
The EU has... Turkey, Georgia, the EFTA states, Moldova, Ukraine, Singapore, Canada, Vietnam, and Korea. The EU also has pretty serious agreements with Eastern and South African states that remove the vast bulk of tariffs (see: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:75184c8b-f721-4002-87c8-e301d4adef11.0019.01/DOC_2&format=PDF). Indeed, for all the rhetoric on here, the EU is a lot kinder to African imports than any of the other large trading blocs.
And EFTA has FTAs with
Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Canada Central American States (Costa Rica, Guatemala and Panama) Chile Colombia Egypt Georgia Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Hong Kong, China Israel Jordan Korea, Republic of Lebanon Macedonia Mexico Montenegro Morocco Palestinian Authority Peru Philippines Serbia Singapore Southern African Customs Union (SACU) Tunisia Turkey Ukraine
In addition to the EEA deal with the 28 EU states.
So I suggest that trumps the EU.
Given that @rcs1000 has suggested joining EFTA I think you're in agreement...
Interesting line from Debbie Abrahams on BBC DP MP Oldham East and Saddleworth. Keeps talking up the need for immigration. She has a 6,000 majority (2nd election). Against her are Conservatives in 2nd and UKIP 3rd with 8,500. Could become a marginal where Labour are fighting to hold on.
The Treasury already informed markets in 2014 that it would take responsibility for UK debt in event of Scottish independence. The arrangements Scotland comes to with the EU are irrelevant to that and in any case the terminology is not "successor" state in international law.
Finally the country which keeps the debt also keeps the assets. That is if you keep the Bank of England and sterling then you also keep the debt - or you can come to an arrangement. In other words you get the bun or the penny but not both.
You do realise that the "Bank of England" and "sterling" are not assets?
A currency is simply a note that has value based on a government's pledge.
The Bank of England is an organisation that coordinates monetary policy. I'm sure you could have the assets on the balance sheet if you wanted (and as you are taking the debt, it's only fair to give you the QE purchases; the tangible assets aren't worth that much)
'Nicola Sturgeon is expected to publish plans within the next few weeks for Scotland to become the official successor state to the UK and take its place within the European Union.
The blueprint will feature plans for Scotland to forge a soft Brexit on its own within the UK. But it is also expected to include plans for Scotland to remain part of the EU if a separate Scottish Brexit deal cannot be negotiated, not just as an independent nation but as the UK’s “successor state”.
Grandstanding nonsense on stilts,but anything to stay in the spotlight and not look completely irrelevant.
Excellent idea. As the successor state, they'd be liable for the UK's sovereign debts.
Very good of them to pick up all those EU-pension contributions....Nick Clegg will be delighted.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
I hope so. Gradual evolution is the British thing.
ECHR withdrawal would be a mistake though. Broadly speaking it's a force for good in the widest European context (ie not the EU alone).
To square the circle perhaps she'll reform benefits as Max and RCS would like. And dress it up as an immigration control thang. Quite a project though.
Nonsense the Bank of England has been a public asset since it was nationalised in the late 1940s. It also holds around a third of UK public debt as well as rights to the currency.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
I disagree. Getting back the non-market acquis laws is a big deal and what a lot of people really care about. It will have a huge impact on a 20 year view. The trade stuff is of less interest to most people - and immigration with a job offer will sound "fair" to most punters on the street.
It sounds to me like a good deal and a very meaningful Brexit. I am always in favour of having cake and eating it.
Finally the country which keeps the debt also keeps the assets. That is if you keep the Bank of England and sterling then you also keep the debt - or you can come to an arrangement. In other words you get the bun or the penny but not both.
If 5 million Scots will take on £1.6 trillion of debt, with a roughly £15 billion deficit, and an additional ~£30 billion to service the debt, well in that case you are welcome to the pound.
With a unified UKIP+CON candidate in Richmond the case for progressives to do same is overwhelming. Instead we have LAB's tedious tribalism
Almost every concept in that tweet is wrong
This has been emotional. OGH "For the moment my money, at odds of up 6/4, is on the LDs. They are the form team at the moment." October 26th OGH "The Richmond Park battle with Zac is an absolutely must win for the LDs" October 25th
He just wants his beloved party to be relevant to someone, anyone?
Given the EU will want us out by the next european elections I'm not sure how Sturgeon gets her indyref2 + Act of Parliament in time to be considered a successor state anyway even if that were likely to happen (which it isn't).
But of course she could get a UK wide referendum on Scottish indy through Westminster with a snap of her fingers, no?
I never said she would get one at the snap of her fingers, just that she could lobby for one. But then you know that.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
I disagree. Getting back the non-market acquis laws is a big deal and what a lot of people really care about. It will have a huge impact on a 20 year view. The trade stuff is of less interest to most people - and immigration with a job offer will sound "fair" to most punters on the street.
It sounds to me like a good deal and a very meaningful Brexit. I am always in favour of having cake and eating it.
It also marks the beginning of our divergence from the EU. I still think we'll be leaving the customs union, but have an agreement on point of origin tariffs so we will collect EU tariffs on goods that will be re-exported to the EU.
Interestingly, he mentions Nebraska, another state that splits its ECV like Maine. Something I hadn't realised. Clinton could gain a vote here.
Obama won NE CD02 in 08. However in 2011 the GOP gerrymandered the district to make it much less Dem friendly and in 12 Romney won the district by 7 points.
WRT the Guardian/ Mail - I find the Guardian website much more user friendly. The Mail seems to want to load in the entire internet and really needs an overhaul of its top-down/ side-side approach.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
I disagree. Getting back the non-market acquis laws is a big deal and what a lot of people really care about. It will have a huge impact on a 20 year view. The trade stuff is of less interest to most people - and immigration with a job offer will sound "fair" to most punters on the street.
The snob-mob Brexit alliance is clearly not an equal partnership. Taking the people for fools will not end well.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
Ah Brexit in name only, I'd be fine with that, but Liam Fox will have an aneurysm but more crucially Graham Brady's postman will develop a hernia.
How is the Catalan example pertinent? Spain has not voted to leave the EU nor do she have any plans or realistic prospect of doing so.
Because Sturgeon's Wet Dream Scenario would make secession from a big state seem easy. Spain wants to make secession look very hard and dangerous, pour discourager les Catalans (& Basques). Spain will be as obstructive as possible to Scotland.
Scotland will have to leave the EU with Britain, then go independent, then reapply for membership as a new member. Spain has made this very clear.
Some reading:
"Spanish PM Mr Rajoy said: “I want to be very clear Scotland does not have the competence to negotiate with the European Union. Spain opposes any negotiation by anyone other than the government of United Kingdom.”
Speaking at a news conference following a summit of European leaders in Brussels, Mr Rajoy added: “I am extremely against it, the treaties are extremely against it and I believe everyone is extremely against it. If the United Kingdom leaves... Scotland leaves.”"
Given the EU will want us out by the next european elections I'm not sure how Sturgeon gets her indyref2 + Act of Parliament in time to be considered a successor state anyway even if that were likely to happen (which it isn't).
But of course she could get a UK wide referendum on Scottish indy through Westminster with a snap of her fingers, no?
I never said she would get one at the snap of her fingers, just that she could lobby for one. But then you know that.
You saying that something that would never happen in a million alternate realities is perfectly possible is what I know.
Nonsense the Bank of England has been a public asset since it was nationalised in the late 1940s. It also holds around a third of UK public debt as well as rights to the currency.
It is an asset with minimal value. As I said, you can have the QE debt. The net asset value of the whole thing is worth £3.4 billion - which is something. But the structure can be restablished as the Bank of New England - it's the function that matters, not the form.
And the currency doesn't have any intrinsic value either (I suppose there might be some marginal intangible value to "pound sterling"). England would just launch the "New Pound Sterling" and most of the trading would shift to that market.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
Ah Brexit in name only, I'd be fine with that, but Liam Fox will have an aneurysm but more crucially Graham Brady's postman will develop a hernia.
That's why it won't happen.
You're not reading the runes very well. Everything points this way.
That's if it points to anything at all. A manufactured argument about which type of Brexit we get could provide good cover for delaying Article 50. Rinse and repeat until the purple stain fades away.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
Ah Brexit in name only, I'd be fine with that, but Liam Fox will have an aneurysm but more crucially Graham Brady's postman will develop a hernia.
That's why it won't happen.
You're not reading the runes very well. Everything points this way.
I'm reading the runes very well.
If Mrs May tries to keep us in the customs union she'll face a leadership challenge.
There's more than 45 Tory MPs who want us out of the customs union even if it extremely bad for the economy.
The Treasury already informed markets in 2014 that it would take responsibility for UK debt in event of Scottish independence.
Only so that uncertainty over 8% of the debt would not raise costs for the other 92%.
In the event of independence there will be some negotiation - and Scotland's share of the debt may be 8%, or 6% plus 50 year lease for Trident, or 0% and border & customs controls and a basket case currency with stratospheric bond rates (if anyone will buy them)....
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
Ah Brexit in name only, I'd be fine with that, but Liam Fox will have an aneurysm but more crucially Graham Brady's postman will develop a hernia.
That's why it won't happen.
I think "single market plus" is what we're looking at. Mr Brady will just have to put a shredder underneath his letter box for a few days. The Swiss precedent on customs collection for imports via the EU and adding EU customs collection in the UK for goods that will be re-exported is a solution that satisfies the idea of "global" Britain and maintains easy trading with the EU. I think it's what was proposed to Nissan.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
I disagree. Getting back the non-market acquis laws is a big deal and what a lot of people really care about. It will have a huge impact on a 20 year view. The trade stuff is of less interest to most people - and immigration with a job offer will sound "fair" to most punters on the street.
The snob-mob Brexit alliance is clearly not an equal partnership. Taking the people for fools will not end well.
It's not a "snob-mob" alliance.
It's trying to address the legitimate concerns of the public - employment competition, especially unskilled - with the needs of the economy to fill roles which can't be sourced from within the UK. I think most people would be satisfied with that model - and there is no reason why it couldn't be extended to non-EU countries as well.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
Ah Brexit in name only, I'd be fine with that, but Liam Fox will have an aneurysm but more crucially Graham Brady's postman will develop a hernia.
That's why it won't happen.
You're not reading the runes very well. Everything points this way.
If EFTA had been on the ballot, it would have been a landslide.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
I disagree. Getting back the non-market acquis laws is a big deal and what a lot of people really care about. It will have a huge impact on a 20 year view. The trade stuff is of less interest to most people - and immigration with a job offer will sound "fair" to most punters on the street.
It sounds to me like a good deal and a very meaningful Brexit. I am always in favour of having cake and eating it.
You misconstrue. I would be perfectly content with this Brexit. Doing Brexit slowly over a decade or more has always been my favoured option. Like climbing down a mountain with ropes and tackle, rather than jumping off when you're not entirely sure if your parachute will work.
But that's why I disagree with the characterisation.
What you are proposing is a yuuuge deal for the UK.
I'm having a really hard time reading Theresa May. Sometimes I think she's playing a cunning, tactical long game, other times I reckon she always just agrees with the last person she spoke to.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
I disagree. Getting back the non-market acquis laws is a big deal and what a lot of people really care about. It will have a huge impact on a 20 year view. The trade stuff is of less interest to most people - and immigration with a job offer will sound "fair" to most punters on the street.
It sounds to me like a good deal and a very meaningful Brexit. I am always in favour of having cake and eating it.
You misconstrue. I would be perfectly content with this Brexit. Doing Brexit slowly over a decade or more has always been my favoured option. Like climbing down a mountain with ropes and tackle, rather than jumping off when you're not entirely sure if your parachute will work.
Given that our parachute operators are Liam Fox and David Davis I think we know they definitely won't work.
Carney staying on until 2021. Another straw in the wind for soft-Brexit.
@SeanT, I wouldn't trust anything Faisal Islam says at the moment, he's blinded by grief.
He's very biased, but I just think he's right here. All the indications are now pointing to Soft Brexit, as you yourself say. TMay is going to have to delicately climb down from her Conference speech, and - at some point - tackle the Bill Cash tendency.
If you're right then May doesn't even need to climb down. She's already cemented herself in the public emotion as the High Priestess of Brexit. That gives her licence to do pretty much what she likes, and few will now bother to scrutinize. If the likes of Farage and Cash make a fuss they'll just look like zealots. May has squashed Hard Brexit like a bug.
The Treasury already informed markets in 2014 that it would take responsibility for UK debt in event of Scottish independence. The arrangements Scotland comes to with the EU are irrelevant to that and in any case the terminology is not "successor" state in international law.
Finally the country which keeps the debt also keeps the assets. That is if you keep the Bank of England and sterling then you also keep the debt - or you can come to an arrangement. In other words you get the bun or the penny but not both.
Ever looked at the NY Convention 1958 as an easy example? Look at the example of the USSR. Your view on successor states is unusual.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
Ah Brexit in name only, I'd be fine with that, but Liam Fox will have an aneurysm but more crucially Graham Brady's postman will develop a hernia.
That's why it won't happen.
You're not reading the runes very well. Everything points this way.
I'm reading the runes very well.
If Mrs May tries to keep us in the customs union she'll face a leadership challenge.
There's more than 45 Tory MPs who want us out of the customs union even if it extremely bad for the economy.
Which is why she'll need to call an election on the "deal". The most important of a generation. And the 45ers will look like the Oaty Bixxers they really are.
Carney staying on until 2021. Another straw in the wind for soft-Brexit.
@SeanT, I wouldn't trust anything Faisal Islam says at the moment, he's blinded by grief.
He's very biased, but I just think he's right here. All the indications are now pointing to Soft Brexit, as you yourself say. TMay is going to have to delicately climb down from her Conference speech, and - at some point - tackle the Bill Cash tendency.
A few weeks ago everything seemed to be pointing to a hard Brexit.
We just don't know. I expect a decision on the customs union is still yet to be made.
What has been commented on slightly less is the commitment to support training and skills, regional support grants, and repatriation of parts of the global supply chain - that sounds like an industrial strategy to me and suggests HMG want to onshore quite a few new manufacturing jobs into the regions, including the north-east, and subsidise them in the short term. Particularly if free migration is otherwise restricted.
If anything, that points me towards a temporary continuation of membership of the customs union until such time it is "safe" to disengage from it because industry/manufacturing and its supply chain had 'adjusted' to the new reality.
I think May would get away with that, as long as the time limit was clear and probably no longer than 10 years, and the alternative was losing tens of thousands of jobs rather than preserving them.
Incidentally I have discovered a new species in the fascinating post-Brexit ecosystem.
I had drinks on Saturday with lefty friends. Old lefties, not quite Corbynite, but they liked Tony Benn.
We were discussing the referendum and I asked how they voted and one said, very reluctantly and quietly, "Remain". He was ashamed, and admitted it, as was my other Remain voting pal.
They now see their vote as cowardly in the face of EU coporatism. Moreover, they have always perceived themselves as radical, daring, socialist rebels, and yet they voted for No Change, the City and for Dave Cameron.
There you have it: the regretful Lefty Remainer. They exist.
Indeed, Lefties ie Corbynistas and Bennites and rightwingers and Thatcherites are surprisingly united in generally being positive about Brexit, it is wet Tories and Osbornites, LDs and Blairites who are still in the depths of depression and anger at the almost apocalyptic decision of the plebs!
Only one night out of 3 polled though post emailgate, most other pollsters this morning have the gap narrowing e.g. IBID TIPP and ABC and Morning Consult
Given that our parachute operators are Liam Fox and David Davis I think we know they definitely won't work.
May should try this strategy:
In a similar vein US parachute packers during WWII took enormous pride in their 99.9% parachute-opening success rate. In their view, one paratrooper out of a thousand dropping like a stone was not a bad failure rate (obviously disputed by the paratrooper in question, who’s ‘failure rate’ is 100%). Any loss of soldiers due to accident is not good. So the obvious quest is to get a perfect success rate. How do you do that? You change the framework: Once a week parachute packers were asked to make a jump with a parachute. But not one of their own parachutes. One chosen at random. From anyone of the packers. The error rate disappeared.
Either way, she is pretty much the ideal prime minister to have when you are about to enter a massive negotiation. She has a poker face. She is inscrutable.
She gave a speech at conference full of red meat for the headbangers, then has spent every day since walking it back.
If Mrs May tries to keep us in the customs union she'll face a leadership challenge.
There's more than 45 Tory MPs who want us out of the customs union even if it extremely bad for the economy.
She'd be able to see off such a challenge with a small kick from her £215 Russell & Bromley black suede flats (the ones with the metal toe caps for extra impact):
I'm having a really hard time reading Theresa May. Sometimes I think she's playing a cunning, tactical long game, other times I reckon she always just agrees with the last person she spoke to.
It's very simple. She's trying to find a way through the mess she has inherited.
So Carney stays but will agree to be less overtly negative about Brexit, the Bank is going to raise its UK economic forecast by ~0.8 points. Interesting. I think Carney has been told it's soft-Brexit as well. I don't see how the PM would have convinced him to stay otherwise. Losing Carney earlier than 2018 would have caused a huge confidence loss, keeping him, and hopefully a more positive version, is definitely a net gain.
I'm having a really hard time reading Theresa May. Sometimes I think she's playing a cunning, tactical long game, other times I reckon she always just agrees with the last person she spoke to.
I feel exactly the same. At the moment I am tending towards the positive - that she's strategically cunning and thinks ahead.
Either way, she is pretty much the ideal prime minister to have when you are about to enter a massive negotiation. She has a poker face. She is inscrutable.
I can't disagree with that. Cameron should have promoted her to Foreign Secretary in 2015 and put her in charge of European negotiations. a) She'd have done a much better job of it, and b) She wouldn't have been able to hide during the referendum campaign.
Faisal Islam is claiming that we're "clearly staying in the customs union for years".
I think he might be right, I think we are also going to have a very EFTA-ish deal on trade, and contributions will continue, in a lesser form.
What we will get is return of the non-market acquis laws, fisheries, agriculture, justice, all that. We will stay in Erasmus and Horizon and the ESA and the rest. Free movement will become free movement with a job offer, plus tweaking on benefits.
It's not just going to be Brexit Lite, but Brexit Barely Noticeable In The End.
This will infuriate ultra-Leavers. I wonder if May will take us out of the ECHR as a sop to the Daily Mail tendency. It would be a canny balancing move. European Human Rights judges are very unpopular.
Ah Brexit in name only, I'd be fine with that, but Liam Fox will have an aneurysm but more crucially Graham Brady's postman will develop a hernia.
That's why it won't happen.
You're not reading the runes very well. Everything points this way.
I'm reading the runes very well.
If Mrs May tries to keep us in the customs union she'll face a leadership challenge.
There's more than 45 Tory MPs who want us out of the customs union even if it extremely bad for the economy.
It would depend on the overall package and what the future intent was.
Although no doubt George Osborne could always ride in as a knight in shining armour to save the day.
I'm having a really hard time reading Theresa May. Sometimes I think she's playing a cunning, tactical long game, other times I reckon she always just agrees with the last person she spoke to.
It's very simple. She's trying to find a way through the mess she has inherited.
Well obviously, but has she more or less figured out the path she intends to take through the minefield, or is she just taking it one step at a time and waiting to see if she blows up?
Incidentally I have discovered a new species in the fascinating post-Brexit ecosystem.
I had drinks on Saturday with lefty friends. Old lefties, not quite Corbynite, but they liked Tony Benn.
We were discussing the referendum and I asked how they voted and one said, very reluctantly and quietly, "Remain". He was ashamed, and admitted it, as was my other Remain voting pal.
They now see their vote as cowardly in the face of EU coporatism. Moreover, they have always perceived themselves as radical, daring, socialist rebels, and yet they voted for No Change, the City and for Dave Cameron.
There you have it: the regretful Lefty Remainer. They exist.
Indeed, Lefties ie Corbynistas and Bennites and rightwingers and Thatcherites are surprisingly united in generally being positive about Brexit, it is wet Tories and Osbornites, LDs and Blairites who are still in the depths of depression and anger at the almost apocalyptic decision of the plebs!
Leftie Corbynistas are only positive about Brexit in the sense that they feel it will free them up to introduce a socialist paradise of five year tractor production planning in the UK without interference.
I couldn't give a hoot what the implications of CETA are for Scotland. The CETA is the EU's baby and we're leaving the EU. If they want to ratify it then we must not stand in the way.
Nicola Sturgeon is expected to publish plans within the next few weeks for Scotland to become the official successor state to the UK and take its place within the European Union.
The blueprint will feature plans for Scotland to forge a soft Brexit on its own within the UK. But it is also expected to include plans for Scotland to remain part of the EU if a separate Scottish Brexit deal cannot be negotiated, not just as an independent nation but as the UK’s “successor state”.
Incidentally I have discovered a new species in the fascinating post-Brexit ecosystem.
I had drinks on Saturday with lefty friends. Old lefties, not quite Corbynite, but they liked Tony Benn.
We were discussing the referendum and I asked how they voted and one said, very reluctantly and quietly, "Remain". He was ashamed, and admitted it, as was my other Remain voting pal.
They now see their vote as cowardly in the face of EU coporatism. Moreover, they have always perceived themselves as radical, daring, socialist rebels, and yet they voted for No Change, the City and for Dave Cameron.
There you have it: the regretful Lefty Remainer. They exist.
Indeed, Lefties ie Corbynistas and Bennites and rightwingers and Thatcherites are surprisingly united in generally being positive about Brexit, it is wet Tories and Osbornites, LDs and Blairites who are still in the depths of depression and anger at the almost apocalyptic decision of the plebs!
Leftie Corbynistas are only positive about Brexit in the sense that they feel it will free them up to introduce a socialist paradise of five year tractor production planning in the UK without interference.
You could interpret it as them both making the same argument - free to do things our own way.
I'm having a really hard time reading Theresa May. Sometimes I think she's playing a cunning, tactical long game, other times I reckon she always just agrees with the last person she spoke to.
It's very simple. She's trying to find a way through the mess she has inherited.
Well obviously, but has she more or less figured out the path she intends to take through the minefield, or is she just taking it one step at a time and waiting to see if she blows up?
She means what she says, says what she intends, and intends what she means.
I'm having a really hard time reading Theresa May. Sometimes I think she's playing a cunning, tactical long game, other times I reckon she always just agrees with the last person she spoke to.
It may be because there's little to read: she hasn't yet decided and likes to examine an argument from every possible angle prior to making a decision.
And it may be she has multiple negotiating lines she could pursue, in a decision tree, depending upon how the EU play it.
So Carney stays but will agree to be less overtly negative about Brexit, the Bank is going to raise its UK economic forecast by ~0.8 points. Interesting. I think Carney has been told it's soft-Brexit as well. I don't see how the PM would have convinced him to stay otherwise. Losing Carney earlier than 2018 would have caused a huge confidence loss, keeping him, and hopefully a more positive version, is definitely a net gain.
How is the first Cabinet minister to leave betting looking? Soft Brexit means Fox walks out surely?
Comments
They appear to be apeing the Mail Online but I think they're liable to alienate their natural audience - and indeed the audience *most* likely to part with money - when they move as they inevitably will to a Times model.
Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Canada
Central American States (Costa Rica, Guatemala and Panama)
Chile
Colombia
Egypt
Georgia
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
Hong Kong, China
Israel
Jordan
Korea, Republic of
Lebanon
Macedonia
Mexico
Montenegro
Morocco
Palestinian Authority
Peru
Philippines
Serbia
Singapore
Southern African Customs Union (SACU)
Tunisia
Turkey
Ukraine
In addition to the EEA deal with the 28 EU states.
So I suggest that trumps the EU.
Haitian-Americans in Florida are abandoning the Clintons over Foundation scandals, the Miami Herald reports https://t.co/LyRbTVdjKS
http://labourlist.org/2016/10/timetable-confirmed-for-richmond-park-by-election-selection/
Have to agree with Mike. Labour are implicitly aiding Brexit if/when they stand a candidate.
When someone writes the Brexit version of "Guilty Men", the Labour Party and Jeremy Corbyn will need to take their rightful place.
Absolutely insane.
Clinton 42 .. Trump 47
http://www.11alive.com/news/politics/elections/exclusive-poll-donald-trump-will-win-georgia/343838078
DYOR.
OGH "For the moment my money, at odds of up 6/4, is on the LDs. They are the form team at the moment." October 26th
OGH "The Richmond Park battle with Zac is an absolutely must win for the LDs" October 25th
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/10/30/former_bush_ethics_lawyer_richard_painter_files_complaint_against_fbi_director.html
Finally the country which keeps the debt also keeps the assets. That is if you keep the Bank of England and sterling then you also keep the debt - or you can come to an arrangement. In other words you get the bun or the penny but not both.
How is the Catalan example pertinent? Spain has not voted to leave the EU nor do she have any plans or realistic prospect of doing so.
Clinton 45 .. Trump 42
Note - Clinton +3 from Friday.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct31
Saturday - Delivered Focus leaflets
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVICU6bdVaA
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-what-if-clinton-wins-north-carolina-and-loses-pennsylvania/
Interestingly, he mentions Nebraska, another state that splits its ECV like Maine. Something I hadn't realised. Clinton could gain a vote here.
@SeanT, I wouldn't trust anything Faisal Islam says at the moment, he's blinded by grief.
But this new gambit from Sturgeon is lobotomy stuff.
May (or her designated attack dog) should call her on it. It points to basic credibility issues.
A currency is simply a note that has value based on a government's pledge.
The Bank of England is an organisation that coordinates monetary policy. I'm sure you could have the assets on the balance sheet if you wanted (and as you are taking the debt, it's only fair to give you the QE purchases; the tangible assets aren't worth that much)
ECHR withdrawal would be a mistake though. Broadly speaking it's a force for good in the widest European context (ie not the EU alone).
To square the circle perhaps she'll reform benefits as Max and RCS would like. And dress it up as an immigration control thang. Quite a project though.
Nonsense the Bank of England has been a public asset since it was nationalised in the late 1940s. It also holds around a third of UK public debt as well as rights to the currency.
It sounds to me like a good deal and a very meaningful Brexit. I am always in favour of having cake and eating it.
Its even easier to see the comments.
That's why it won't happen.
And the currency doesn't have any intrinsic value either (I suppose there might be some marginal intangible value to "pound sterling"). England would just launch the "New Pound Sterling" and most of the trading would shift to that market.
[ju
If Mrs May tries to keep us in the customs union she'll face a leadership challenge.
There's more than 45 Tory MPs who want us out of the customs union even if it extremely bad for the economy.
In the event of independence there will be some negotiation - and Scotland's share of the debt may be 8%, or 6% plus 50 year lease for Trident, or 0% and border & customs controls and a basket case currency with stratospheric bond rates (if anyone will buy them)....
It's trying to address the legitimate concerns of the public - employment competition, especially unskilled - with the needs of the economy to fill roles which can't be sourced from within the UK. I think most people would be satisfied with that model - and there is no reason why it couldn't be extended to non-EU countries as well.
What you are proposing is a yuuuge deal for the UK.
We just don't know. I expect a decision on the customs union is still yet to be made.
What has been commented on slightly less is the commitment to support training and skills, regional support grants, and repatriation of parts of the global supply chain - that sounds like an industrial strategy to me and suggests HMG want to onshore quite a few new manufacturing jobs into the regions, including the north-east, and subsidise them in the short term. Particularly if free migration is otherwise restricted.
If anything, that points me towards a temporary continuation of membership of the customs union until such time it is "safe" to disengage from it because industry/manufacturing and its supply chain had 'adjusted' to the new reality.
I think May would get away with that, as long as the time limit was clear and probably no longer than 10 years, and the alternative was losing tens of thousands of jobs rather than preserving them.
Rasmussen has Clinton 45% Trump 42%. On Friday they were level pegging.
Maybe I won't need to change my trousers after all.
Awesome skillz...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3818112/Theresa-recycles-leopard-print-diamante-Russell-Bromley-kitten-heels.html
Another of Tezza's awesome briefings...
Although no doubt George Osborne could always ride in as a knight in shining armour to save the day.
https://twitter.com/ninjaeconomics/status/793075052141051905
Off thread - Gareth Bale further ruins Spurs fans mood. He'll be using a zimmer before he's back at the Lane.
And it may be she has multiple negotiating lines she could pursue, in a decision tree, depending upon how the EU play it.