Interesting snippet from Nevada on the county split - ties in with the debate re WWC & Trump:
"Rurals: The GOP had about a 10,500-voted lead in 2012 after the first week; it is more than 11,000 already this cycle. Watch the rurals." i.e. GOP have surpassed their 2012 1st week rural lead with two days to go.
"Ukip has pledged its support for Zac Goldsmith in the upcoming Richmond Park by-election. The right-wing party stated it will not field a candidate against Mr Goldsmith, saying it agrees with his stance on the third Heathrow runway while praising his commitment to the Brexit campaign."
"Ukip has pledged its support for Zac Goldsmith in the upcoming Richmond Park by-election. The right-wing party stated it will not field a candidate against Mr Goldsmith, saying it agrees with his stance on the third Heathrow runway while praising his commitment to the Brexit campaign."
Who will be squealing like a pig come November 9th?
I'm thinking of the lyrics to the moonshine-makers anthem, Copperhead Road:
"Well my name's John Lee Pettimore Same as my daddy and his daddy before You hardly ever saw Grandaddy down here He only come to town about twice a year"
And one of those was to vote for Donald Trump.....
I have decided to spend the rest of the afternoon creating a Nate Silver type simulation of the Richmond Park by election based on a number of assumptions. I will do 1000 simulations and use a rectangular distribution (for ease) as, by the central limit theorem, the sum will approximate a normal distribution.
My assumptions are as follows:
LibDem will take between 10 and 12% off Lab and Green. (Lab/Grn totalled 18.2% last time). Zac will take 1-2% off UKIP (UKIP 4.2% last time but well down in latest poll) LibDem will switch 10-15% of the Tory vote on account of Brexit. Turnout for Zac will be 47-53% Turnout for LibDem will be 53-57% based on differential in enthusiasm. (NB Witney 46.8% turnout)
Applying the mean of all those assumptions gives the following result:
Zac 18,150 LD 17,750
But there will be a spread of possibilities and that is what I want to investigate. I will also fine tune the assumptions as I get more info and insights. If there is any interest, I will publish the results.
Sounds interesting. But are the Greens standing? Zac is former editor of Ecologist and all that. Him and Caroline Lucas could work together on some stuff once he is returned as an independent Environmental-Conservative.
Not sure if the Greens are standing. The skinny poll from the Standard showed most previous Greens switching to LibDem. Tiny sample though.
Sorry to mention assassination again - but does anyone know what would happen if a candidate croaks once postal voting has already started?
Kaine or Pence would quickly head in from 1000.0 on Betfair would be my guess.
But if votes are already cast for a dead candidate then the election is surely void? Don't they have to start again? Or does the VP candidate legally assume the full candidacy? Would make hanging chads look like a breeze.
It'll depend on the state rules but remember, the voters aren't techinically electing the president; they're electing the electors. The true election will take place when the electoral college meets in the various state capitals. If a presidential candidate dies, then (again, subject to state rules), it'd still make sense to vote for the dead person on the assumption that their pledged electors will do something sensible and in line with the RNC/DNC opinion.
The presidential election is one election that can't be voided as such, as various aspects of it are laid down in the constitution. If the worst came to the worst, it'd get kicked to the House with the top three candidates going through.
I'd be very surprised if it didn't go to the VP-elect, after all they were on the winning "ticket".
I agree, though there'd be a reasonably significant chance that at least a few electors would ignore that 'advice' and pick someone else e.g. someone who ran for the nomination.
In all probability, if one candidate died, the other would win the election anyway as it's no doubt a lot harder to get the vote out for a dead candidate than a live one. But in the unlikely event that the dead candidate 'won' (or, alternatively, that they died between polling day and the Electoral College vote), state law may mandate enough Electors to vote as directed for void votes to mean that neither reaches 270.
Little Green Mohammed Well you did call everyone who you don't agree with as Nazis .. I'm surprised you are bleating that he refused you https://t.co/Q1WuSJSPsh
Lily Allen Just tried to get in a black cab with my kids. The driver looked at me and said , 'find an immigrant to drive you you stupid tart'
Stone. Heart. Laugh.
She probably asked him to take her south of the river after dark!
PB liberals are their own worst enemy here - they detest Trump and the Deplorables and dismiss most of Hillary issues because it's inconvenient.
I can't be bothered with them and hence post less - if some want to bathe in self-righteousness and smuggery - and insult me too - why bother?
Let them group think
"
Keep going, Plato - we need a variety of opinions to make us see new things.
As your friend Socrates said in his trial "The most stupid people are those that think they know everything because they do not realise that they in fact know nothing"
What Socrates forgot was the non-elite of Athens had
- Just lived through the Thirty Tyrants - Noticed that the Thirty were strangely congruent with the pupils of Socrates.
I think Socrates knew alright; I am guessing he would have been a Remainer
@dugarbandier Deliverance is a masterpiece. It could only be done by a foreign director, the great John Boorman, and critiqued Vietnam brilliantly without you realising it. That 70's American cinema is sublime.
Mr. Llama, I agree. It's a waste of public money for a vacuous promise that was entirely unnecessary.
Surely PBers aren't objecting to a by-election? This is our meat and drink! Keep them coming I say
The funny thing is that neither the people in Clacton or Haltemprice and Howden thought that their by-elections were unnecessary. There is precisely no evidence that the people of Richmond think so about theirs.
Exactly....look where we are now. And I for one remember your endless obsession with the EU.
I was going to continue that Brexit represents a much more profound shift than a Trump victory ever could because of the US constitution. In the UK we have relied on the stability of Parliamentary democracy to avoid extremism. Once that was bypassed through that ridiculous plebiscite, we have inadvertently let in extremist ideologues to trash the place up.
Re the comparisons with Trump and Brexit - the big unstated reason why you get 6/1 on the day for Brexit was not because what the polls said or that undecideds would break for Remain etc but because there was an unsaid, but very powerful and snobby belief that Bob in his council flat would not get off his fat lazy ar*e and make it down to the polling station. All the voting experts pontificated that the plebs would not bother to vote. Rather a big miscalculation.
It seems to me that people are making the same, implicit snobbish comment on the US WWC in this election i.e. that Billy Bob is too high on methadone in his trailer to have registered and to have voted.
I think you're right. Many discussants stay inside intellectual debate world even when they consider and analyse demographics. Polls too may be biased against people in this group, who have a tendency not to take part in polls. And thus you get an echo chamber or a "filter bubble" to use a buzzphrase. In the US there is also the problem that commentators and media editors find it hard to understand anything that hasn't got a dollar sign in front of it. So they keep going on about how little Trump is spending, not comprehending the effect of his rallies and of his face and words on people's TV screens.
So yes, there's value in Trump at his current price of 5.25, and he may well win.
May I ask what you think a fair price would be at the moment?
Another point: during the Brexit campaigning, most commentators didn't comprehend just how important an issue immigration was. They were encouraged in their lack of understanding by pollsters who asked utterly stupid questions such as please tick which of these is most important to you: a) pressure on housing, b) employment problems, c) assimilation of refugees, d) pressure of immigration on the economy.
Who will be squealing like a pig come November 9th?
I'm thinking of the lyrics to the moonshine-makers anthem, Copperhead Road:
"Well my name's John Lee Pettimore Same as my daddy and his daddy before You hardly ever saw Grandaddy down here He only come to town about twice a year"
And one of those was to vote for Donald Trump.....
Well, I think to many of those people, this is their last stand for "their" America.
A new email released by Wikileaks as part of the Podesta dump features Hillary ally Wendy Bronfein advising Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta on how to reach “f**king dumb” young people.
Marketing executive Bronfein tells Podesta that Clinton “may not be the best face” to attract younger voters and that she needs to utilize “trending figures” as par of an “infusion to pull younger voters” because “that’s the crap that young people pay attention to”.
Bronfein goes on to state, “It’s f**king dumb but being “cool” counts for more than it maybe should.”
She references Bill Clinton’s saxophone playing as an example of this before asserting, “I hate to generalize a generation but by social media nature, they “follow”. So if someone they identify as cool endorses – they will likely fall in line with that candidate.”
@dugarbandier Deliverance is a masterpiece. It could only be done by a foreign director, the great John Boorman, and critiqued Vietnam brilliantly without you realising it. That 70's American cinema is sublime.
it may be. it's not entertainment tho! I dunno, I just saw lots of unpleasant people doin unpleasant stuff to other unpleasant people. it was a long time ago, and I know little about vietnam, so you could well be right. I'm not really up for watching it again tho
Henry Zeffman *Kremlinology alert* Philip Hammond was quietly made first secretary of state 10 days ago. Means he'll deputise at PMQs (h/t @robfuller91)
Presumably if they lose the appeal all Uber drivers will be required to open a Personal Service Company.
nope that would mean they are caught by IR35 as they have been shown to be under supervision direction and control - so there would be zero point creating one.
For those who've paid attention to this area, this decision is going to be interesting to watch played out, especially as HMRC want money from those it deems to be employed.
It just confirms that UK employment law is a mess and a proper solution needs to be found.
"Ukip has pledged its support for Zac Goldsmith in the upcoming Richmond Park by-election. The right-wing party stated it will not field a candidate against Mr Goldsmith, saying it agrees with his stance on the third Heathrow runway while praising his commitment to the Brexit campaign."
Of course, the promise is damned silly, but there we are.
But he got elected on that promise with a massive majority. And now he has held to his end of the bargain. A politician who does what he has promised the voters. Crikey!
A new email released by Wikileaks as part of the Podesta dump features Hillary ally Wendy Bronfein advising Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta on how to reach “f**king dumb” young people.
Marketing executive Bronfein tells Podesta that Clinton “may not be the best face” to attract younger voters and that she needs to utilize “trending figures” as par of an “infusion to pull younger voters” because “that’s the crap that young people pay attention to”.
Bronfein goes on to state, “It’s f**king dumb but being “cool” counts for more than it maybe should.”
She references Bill Clinton’s saxophone playing as an example of this before asserting, “I hate to generalize a generation but by social media nature, they “follow”. So if someone they identify as cool endorses – they will likely fall in line with that candidate.”
A new email released by Wikileaks as part of the Podesta dump features Hillary ally Wendy Bronfein advising Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta on how to reach “f**king dumb” young people.
Marketing executive Bronfein tells Podesta that Clinton “may not be the best face” to attract younger voters and that she needs to utilize “trending figures” as par of an “infusion to pull younger voters” because “that’s the crap that young people pay attention to”.
Bronfein goes on to state, “It’s f**king dumb but being “cool” counts for more than it maybe should.”
She references Bill Clinton’s saxophone playing as an example of this before asserting, “I hate to generalize a generation but by social media nature, they “follow”. So if someone they identify as cool endorses – they will likely fall in line with that candidate.”
What would you imagine Lynton Crosby's 2015 emails and texts would be like if they came to light?. What if they put a recording on at election HQ and released it?
"I think you're right. Many discussants stay inside intellectual debate world even when they consider and analyse demographics. Polls too may be biased against people in this group, who have a tendency not to take part in polls. And thus you get an echo chamber or a "filter bubble" to use a buzzphrase. In the US there is also the problem that commentators and media editors find it hard to understand anything that hasn't got a dollar sign in front of it. So they keep going on about how little Trump is spending, not comprehending the effect of his rallies and of his face and words on people's TV screens.
So yes, there's value in Trump at his current price of 5.25, and he may well win.
May I ask what you think a fair price would be at the moment?
My own view is 2/1, especially given what we are seeing in some of the early voting trends. In a number of big, bellweather states in the East / Midwest (PA, OH, NC, even VA and MI) HRC needs a high turnout amongst AAs to offset favourable demographics for Trump amongst the White population. But we seem to be getting data from Ohio, NC and possibly VA suggesting AA turnout is sharply down.
While HRC will benefit from the Hispanic vote, realistically that only counts in NV, CO and possibly AZ (and, in the later, I think border issues will drive turnout amongst whites). I do not count FL, because its Hispanic population is more Cuban in nature, which is an entirely different phenomenon to Mexican etc immigrants.
PB liberals are their own worst enemy here - they detest Trump and the Deplorables and dismiss most of Hillary issues because it's inconvenient.
I can't be bothered with them and hence post less - if some want to bathe in self-righteousness and smuggery - and insult me too - why bother?
Let them group think
"
Keep going, Plato - we need a variety of opinions to make us see new things.
As your friend Socrates said in his trial "The most stupid people are those that think they know everything because they do not realise that they in fact know nothing"
That's kind of you - I'm investing so much time in US politics because I believe - like Brexit - it's a pivotal change agenda. If Hillary wins - it's a huge shift for decades re SCOTUS and immigration that will alter the whole persona of the America I know and love.
I'm doing all I can to help those who feel this is a watershed and very dangerous culturally.
I agree....keep going Plato. You add to the diversity here. But as you are aware, like me, you have to take the flak by having strong views and backing them up so vociferously.
FWIW.....I think the election of Trump presents a much more existential threat to the right in the USA because within 2 years the Democrats will have shut out all the levers of Government and left him isolated, and the GOP decimated.
Your SCOTUS fear is slightly paranoid. Those judges have a habit of becoming quite independent thinkers, and Hillary will in all likelihood pick moderates much like Obama. A Hillary victory gives the chance for GOP to regroup around someone like Paul Ryan, and come back. A Trump victory could sink the party within months.
I remember when I was virtually the only eurosceptic on here, back in about 2005. I was certainly the only one who would bang on and on about it, understandably boring lots of other pb-ers. I would get scoffed at, yawned at, and Nick P would chortle at me, politely, and so forth.
And look where we are now.
As I remember pbc in 2005, it was far more Eurosceptic than anything I encountered in real life - you, me, Sean Fear, Rik W, possibly Woody662 and Andy Cooke, various others - where pbc led, the country followed.
Henry Zeffman *Kremlinology alert* Philip Hammond was quietly made first secretary of state 10 days ago. Means he'll deputise at PMQs (h/t @robfuller91)
A new email released by Wikileaks as part of the Podesta dump features Hillary ally Wendy Bronfein advising Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta on how to reach “f**king dumb” young people.
Marketing executive Bronfein tells Podesta that Clinton “may not be the best face” to attract younger voters and that she needs to utilize “trending figures” as par of an “infusion to pull younger voters” because “that’s the crap that young people pay attention to”.
Bronfein goes on to state, “It’s f**king dumb but being “cool” counts for more than it maybe should.”
She references Bill Clinton’s saxophone playing as an example of this before asserting, “I hate to generalize a generation but by social media nature, they “follow”. So if someone they identify as cool endorses – they will likely fall in line with that candidate.”
Interesting FT article — it's cheaper to fly to Canada to buy Apple products than buy them in the UK.
Except you have to pay import duties?
Koff, what you do is leave the box in Canada, and carry them on your person.
Although I'm not sure if Canadian iPhones will work here because of the different bands they use, nor will you be able to use the warranty or genius bar in the UK.
Interesting snippet from Nevada on the county split - ties in with the debate re WWC & Trump:
"Rurals: The GOP had about a 10,500-voted lead in 2012 after the first week; it is more than 11,000 already this cycle. Watch the rurals." i.e. GOP have surpassed their 2012 1st week rural lead with two days to go.
Dromedary - just about your point that "Polls too may be biased against people in this group, who have a tendency not to take part in polls". One thing I have noticed in the States is that, when you speak to peoplewho seem like they would be natural Trump supporters, they truly do believe in the conspiracy view that the US Government is out to get them. One of the reasons why I am wary of some of these polls - I just cannot imagine these people picking up the phone to a stranger and admitting for whom they will vote.
Medicine courses, at "home" (UK or, at present, EU) fee levels, are MASSIVELY subsidised. Students don't pay anything approaching the true cost.
Is there a big difference in the the rates of graduates from British medical schools actually staying and working in Britain between (a) UK nationals, (b) non-UK EU nationals, (c) non-EU international students?
A substantial proportion of British medical grads either don't go into medicine as a career at all, or go overseas to work. But it wouldn't surprise me if that rate was much higher among graduates who are not UK nationals, e.g. if they preferred to study here because we have better universities (plus English language, useful if they want to work elsewhere like the USA later) but either intended to return to their home country to work, or alternatively see themselves as highly internationally mobile (and pretty much by definition, someone studying here who comes from overseas is internationally mobile).
If this is the case (speculative if) then we might benefit from a reduction in EU students taking up the limited, subsidised places on British medical courses. Hard to see a benefit from declining numbers of non-EU international students, though, since they are paying for the degree and are effectively an export industry.
Anecdote: At the Vote Leave campaign launch I was sitting next to a lad from South Asia who was there because he would have to be sent home when he got to the end of his course while his EU classmates could stay. He invited me down to his Junior Doctor picket line next day btw. He didn't have a vote, I assume, but wanted to campaign for a level playing field. (as did I)
Welcome to PB, LP.
He was picketing so his EU colleagues could be sent home too?
That must be it, or he's self-entitled twit.
Yes, how dare people have views on issues.
Maybe. He didn't like the inequity I think. Nor did I. Maybe he was sick of all the remainers constantly harping on about how the NHS desperately needs EU immigrants when he was being sent home. He may have been a self entitled twit as he was on strike next day for better terms than J Hunt was offering. Anyway I suspect that view of inequity was probably shared by the Asians round here who voted in big numbers for Brexit. Thanks for the welcome btw.
Interesting snippet from Nevada on the county split - ties in with the debate re WWC & Trump:
"Rurals: The GOP had about a 10,500-voted lead in 2012 after the first week; it is more than 11,000 already this cycle. Watch the rurals." i.e. GOP have surpassed their 2012 1st week rural lead with two days to go.
Invaluable stuff. Thanks.
But Clinton is ahead in all the other places to offset this lead.
A new email released by Wikileaks as part of the Podesta dump features Hillary ally Wendy Bronfein advising Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta on how to reach “f**king dumb” young people.
Marketing executive Bronfein tells Podesta that Clinton “may not be the best face” to attract younger voters and that she needs to utilize “trending figures” as par of an “infusion to pull younger voters” because “that’s the crap that young people pay attention to”.
Bronfein goes on to state, “It’s f**king dumb but being “cool” counts for more than it maybe should.”
She references Bill Clinton’s saxophone playing as an example of this before asserting, “I hate to generalize a generation but by social media nature, they “follow”. So if someone they identify as cool endorses – they will likely fall in line with that candidate.”
PB liberals are their own worst enemy here - they detest Trump and the Deplorables and dismiss most of Hillary issues because it's inconvenient.
I can't be bothered with them and hence post less - if some want to bathe in self-righteousness and smuggery - and insult me too - why bother?
Let them group think
"
Keep going, Plato - we need a variety of opinions to make us see new things.
As your friend Socrates said in his trial "The most stupid people are those that think they know everything because they do not realise that they in fact know nothing"
That's kind of you - I'm investing so much time in US politics because I believe - like Brexit - it's a pivotal change agenda. If Hillary wins - it's a huge shift for decades re SCOTUS and immigration that will alter the whole persona of the America I know and love.
I'm doing all I can to help those who feel this is a watershed and very dangerous culturally.
I agree....keep going Plato. You add to the diversity here. But as you are aware, like me, you have to take the flak by having strong views and backing them up so vociferously.
FWIW.....I think the election of Trump presents a much more existential threat to the right in the USA because within 2 years the Democrats will have shut out all the levers of Government and left him isolated, and the GOP decimated.
Your SCOTUS fear is slightly paranoid. Those judges have a habit of becoming quite independent thinkers, and Hillary will in all likelihood pick moderates much like Obama. A Hillary victory gives the chance for GOP to regroup around someone like Paul Ryan, and come back. A Trump victory could sink the party within months.
I remember when I was virtually the only eurosceptic on here, back in about 2005. I was certainly the only one who would bang on and on about it, understandably boring lots of other pb-ers. I would get scoffed at, yawned at, and Nick P would chortle at me, politely, and so forth.
And look where we are now.
Yes indeed. Some of us have realised a twenty percent increase in the sterling value of one's portfolio over the last few months. Somehow I doubt that will hold up.
A new email released by Wikileaks as part of the Podesta dump features Hillary ally Wendy Bronfein advising Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta on how to reach “f**king dumb” young people.
Marketing executive Bronfein tells Podesta that Clinton “may not be the best face” to attract younger voters and that she needs to utilize “trending figures” as par of an “infusion to pull younger voters” because “that’s the crap that young people pay attention to”.
Bronfein goes on to state, “It’s f**king dumb but being “cool” counts for more than it maybe should.”
She references Bill Clinton’s saxophone playing as an example of this before asserting, “I hate to generalize a generation but by social media nature, they “follow”. So if someone they identify as cool endorses – they will likely fall in line with that candidate.”
"Yeah the vote is very different this year. The Dems have come out hard on mail, but they are doing disproportionately worse so far in-person so it isn't as good for them as it would appear at first glance.
"
Brokenwheel, could you send me the links to where you are getting the Florida data - I would be interested to take a look.
Also, someone on here posted a tweet from a US source yesterday about a pattern emerging re more white liberals / Hispanics for HRC and fewer AAs. Could anyone repost? I cannot find it in my history but when I looked at the author's other tweets, it was suggesting that AA early voting in Virginia was also sharply down.
Interesting FT article — it's cheaper to fly to Canada to buy Apple products than buy them in the UK.
Except you have to pay import duties?
Well you are hardly going to declare it if you buy one are you? Obviously if you nip across and by a thousand, that's another matter.
Probably right, although it is the law.
I'm petrified of HMRC- I make sure that every single last penny of income that I receive is recorded, and am haphazard about deductions I can make. But at the end of November I'll be walking back casually through customs from the states with a MacPro and IPAD....it will not be a Midnight Express moment for me.
"Ukip has pledged its support for Zac Goldsmith in the upcoming Richmond Park by-election. The right-wing party stated it will not field a candidate against Mr Goldsmith, saying it agrees with his stance on the third Heathrow runway while praising his commitment to the Brexit campaign."
Interesting FT article — it's cheaper to fly to Canada to buy Apple products than buy them in the UK.
Except you have to pay import duties?
Well you are hardly going to declare it if you buy one are you? Obviously if you nip across and by a thousand, that's another matter.
Probably right, although it is the law.
I'm petrified of HMRC- I make sure that every single last penny of income that I receive is recorded, and am haphazard about deductions I can make. But at the end of November I'll be walking back casually through customs from the states with a MacPro and IPAD....it will not be a Midnight Express moment for me.
I thought you of all people would be critical of tax evaders?
Interesting FT article — it's cheaper to fly to Canada to buy Apple products than buy them in the UK.
Except you have to pay import duties?
Well you are hardly going to declare it if you buy one are you? Obviously if you nip across and by a thousand, that's another matter.
Probably right, although it is the law.
I'm petrified of HMRC- I make sure that every single last penny of income that I receive is recorded, and am haphazard about deductions I can make. But at the end of November I'll be walking back casually through customs from the states with a MacPro and IPAD....it will not be a Midnight Express moment for me.
Yes indeed. Some of us have realised a twenty percent increase in the sterling value of one's portfolio over the last few months. Somehow I doubt that will hold up.
@Toms...... Brexit was a vote against elites, and oh yes....that vote has directly led to dramatically enriching the elite through enhancing their portfolios.
I looked at my holdings yesterday because I'm starting the dreaded tax return. I haven't looked at them since this time last year. I'm ashamed to be honest about how much money I have made by doing sweet FA.
It doesn't seem fair that things are just so stacked up for the rich. Once you acquire assets, the money just keeps rolling in. If you lose one way (exchange rates) you gain in another.
"Ukip has pledged its support for Zac Goldsmith in the upcoming Richmond Park by-election. The right-wing party stated it will not field a candidate against Mr Goldsmith, saying it agrees with his stance on the third Heathrow runway while praising his commitment to the Brexit campaign."
If you scroll down the comments, there's a great image of a Hilary, frozen to the spot, a look of morbid fascination, like she's just been flashed by JackW....
Just be looking in detail at ECV. Seems to me that Trump has to win OH, FL, IA, PA and one other state to stop Clinton (assuming NV falls to the independent candidate).
Mr. Tyson, if you're still feeling guilty in a month or so and want to help out a poor self-employed chap, do feel free to buy several dozen copies of Kingdom Asunder
Just be looking in detail at ECV. Seems to me that Trump has to win OH, FL, IA, PA and one other state to stop Clinton (assuming NV falls to the independent candidate).
These are the key figures. Trump has to win at least one state where Clinton is currently ahead by 7.1% or more, along with several states where she is ahead by a smaller amount.
Just be looking in detail at ECV. Seems to me that Trump has to win OH, FL, IA, PA and one other state to stop Clinton (assuming NV falls to the independent candidate).
If you scroll down the comments, there's a great image of a Hilary, frozen to the spot, a look of morbid fascination, like she's just been flashed by JackW....
If you scroll down the comments, there's a great image of a Hilary, frozen to the spot, a look of morbid fascination, like she's just been flashed by JackW....
Just be looking in detail at ECV. Seems to me that Trump has to win OH, FL, IA, PA and one other state to stop Clinton (assuming NV falls to the independent candidate).
you don't mean NV do you?
The only serious Indy is McMullin in Utah, isn't he?
And so, to modify my original question, if the Liberal Democrats can't win in Richmond Park then where do they go next?
You seem to have developed a huge hostility to the LDs despite admitting having voted for the party in the past. I don't really understand the source or rationale behind your antipathy.
I'm more irritated by the Lib Dems at the moment than anything else. It doesn't bother me that the leadership is disappointed by the EU referendum result, but it does rather grate to have this hardline, defiance of the electorate angle peddled by the leader (against the better advice, on this subject anyway, of figures like Vince Cable.) The centre of gravity in British politics (south of the Tweed at least) has shifted somewhat rightwards, against which backdrop the reflexive reaction against Clegg and in favour of becoming an Ed Miliband tribute act seems peculiarly self-defeating, even if it is understandable after what happened to them last year.
They're essentially turning their backs on soft centre-right voters and concentrating instead on trying to win back a tiny cohort of middle-class lefties who fulfil all of the following criteria: (a) liked EdM (b) don't like Corbyn (c) are willing to forgive them for the Coalition. It's a recipe for disaster. In almost any likely scenario about 5 in 6 of Labour's 2015 vote is probably safe, and of the 5% of the total electorate who might potentially dump Labour a substantial fraction will be Lab-Ukip or Lab-Con switchers. The LDs can also target the Greens with this strategy, but their vote is too small to make much difference to anything.
I guess it just seems like such a waste. The main Opposition is the accursed, Far Left, Zombie Labour, shambling uselessly across the political landscape. It is a democratic necessity that it be replaced with something better, and this would be a great deal quicker and easier to accomplish if the LDs were to provide the nucleus of a viable alternative - effectively, so that we can set about reversing what happened a century ago and replace Labour with the Liberals. Instead, they seem to be intent on following five years behind Labour - creating a social democrat party at the very moment when the soft Left is in serious decline in most of Europe. They're on a hiding to nothing.
1) "The lies Trump told this week: from Mosul 'disaster' to leaked Clinton emails - Not even two weeks into the battle for Mosul, Trump has declared it 'a total disaster'. Commanders have disagreed."
2) "Islamic State fighters have taken 'tens of thousands' of people hostage and are herding them towards the city of Mosul for use as human shields as the battle for the militant group's last major Iraqi stronghold intensifies, the United Nations has said"
The latest 4-way RCP polling average has Clinton ahead by almost the same margin as Obama had over Romney in 2012, but she seems to do be doing better in the swing states.
Black Rock "you cannot please all the people all the time only some of the people some of the time". My advice to you is cheer up depression is not good for you..
1) "The lies Trump told this week: from Mosul 'disaster' to leaked Clinton emails - Not even two weeks into the battle for Mosul, Trump has declared it 'a total disaster'. Commanders have disagreed."
2) "Islamic State fighters have taken 'tens of thousands' of people hostage and are herding them towards the city of Mosul for use as human shields as the battle for the militant group's last major Iraqi stronghold intensifies, the United Nations has said"
Mr. Tyson, if you're still feeling guilty in a month or so and want to help out a poor self-employed chap, do feel free to buy several dozen copies of Kingdom Asunder
I tend to weight my charitable stuff to environmental/animal welfare.
Does Kingdom Asunder have any themes of stopping the badger cull whilst saving a few whales and curtailing global warming whilst promoting vegetarianism. If it does then......
Interesting snippet from Nevada on the county split - ties in with the debate re WWC & Trump:
"Rurals: The GOP had about a 10,500-voted lead in 2012 after the first week; it is more than 11,000 already this cycle. Watch the rurals." i.e. GOP have surpassed their 2012 1st week rural lead with two days to go.
Invaluable stuff. Thanks.
Needs to be measured against Nevada's big population growth. So you need that as a percentage.
And so, to modify my original question, if the Liberal Democrats can't win in Richmond Park then where do they go next?
You seem to have developed a huge hostility to the LDs despite admitting having voted for the party in the past. I don't really understand the source or rationale behind your antipathy.
I'm more irritated by the Lib Dems at the moment than anything else. It doesn't bother me that the leadership is disappointed by the EU referendum result, but it does rather grate to have this hardline, defiance of the electorate angle peddled by the leader (against the better advice, on this subject anyway, of figures like Vince Cable.) The centre of gravity in British politics (south of the Tweed at least) has shifted somewhat rightwards, against which backdrop the reflexive reaction against Clegg and in favour of becoming an Ed Miliband tribute act seems peculiarly self-defeating, even if it is understandable after what happened to them last year.
They're essentially turning their backs on soft centre-right voters and concentrating instead on trying to win back a tiny cohort of middle-class lefties who fulfil all of the following criteria: (a) liked EdM (b) don't like Corbyn (c) are willing to forgive them for the Coalition. It's a recipe for disaster. In almost any likely scenario about 5 in 6 of Labour's 2015 vote is probably safe, and of the 5% of the total electorate who might potentially dump Labour a substantial fraction will be Lab-Ukip or Lab-Con switchers. The LDs can also target the Greens with this strategy, but their vote is too small to make much difference to anything.
I guess it just seems like such a waste. The main Opposition is the accursed, Far Left, Zombie Labour, shambling uselessly across the political landscape. It is a democratic necessity that it be replaced with something better, and this would be a great deal quicker and easier to accomplish if the LDs were to provide the nucleus of a viable alternative - effectively, so that we can set about reversing what happened a century ago and replace Labour with the Liberals. Instead, they seem to be intent on following five years behind Labour - creating a social democrat party at the very moment when the soft Left is in serious decline in most of Europe. They're on a hiding to nothing.
An intelligent and very well written post for a Friday afternoon. It diverges from my own opinion, but it carries some hard truths....so well done comrade....
The latest 4-way RCP polling average has Clinton ahead by almost the same margin as Obama had over Romney in 2012, but she seems to do be doing better in the swing states.
Because he's doing better in the north east but dem lead is too large and she is doing better in swing state rich south and west.
Interesting snippet from Nevada on the county split - ties in with the debate re WWC & Trump:
"Rurals: The GOP had about a 10,500-voted lead in 2012 after the first week; it is more than 11,000 already this cycle. Watch the rurals." i.e. GOP have surpassed their 2012 1st week rural lead with two days to go.
Invaluable stuff. Thanks.
Needs to be measured against Nevada's big population growth. So you need that as a percentage.
Looks like all that has pretty much come in Clark (so LV) - 6 day Democrat lead is the same there as in 2012 despite a 150K jump in voters at 36K. From what I can see, the rural areas are basically stagnant.
FWIW, I do not think Trump will win Nevada, it was more for what it may tell us generally.
Does anyone still believe Trump can win ? Seriously ?
Realistically, no. Virginia is gone in early voting. Colorado, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania have such big leads that it is hard to see how he can overcome them not to mention these States have large numbers of uni educated whites. There are no paths to 270 when Clinton wins these.
Does anyone still believe Trump can win ? Seriously ?
TGOHF: apart from the polls - which are generally low quality, have small sample sizes (pro-rata them to the UK, you would be looking at sample sizes of 200-300) and where we do not know the methodology - what other information suggests this contest is over?
As I have posted on here, the early voting looks poor for HRC in NC; Brokenwheel has suggested it could be the same in FL; and there are numerous reports of AA voting down sharply in many places, which is a key bedrock, including OH.
Given what has happened over the past 12 months with what has happened vs. what the polls said, you would have to be brave to be guided by the polls.
And so, to modify my original question, if the Liberal Democrats can't win in Richmond Park then where do they go next?
You seem to have developed a huge hostility to the LDs despite admitting having voted for the party in the past. I don't really understand the source or rationale behind your antipathy.
I'm more irritated by the Lib Dems at the moment than anything else. It doesn't bother me that the leadership is disappointed by the EU referendum result, but it does rather grate to have this hardline, defiance of the electorate angle peddled by the leader (against the better advice, on this subject anyway, of figures like Vince Cable.) The centre of gravity in British politics (south of the Tweed at least) has shifted somewhat rightwards, against which backdrop the reflexive reaction against Clegg and in favour of becoming an Ed Miliband tribute act seems peculiarly self-defeating, even if it is understandable after what happened to them last year.
They're essentially turning their backs on soft centre-right voters and concentrating instead on trying to win back a tiny cohort of middle-class lefties who fulfil all of the following criteria: (a) liked EdM (b) don't like Corbyn (c) are willing to forgive them for the Coalition. It's a recipe for disaster. In almost any likely scenario about 5 in 6 of Labour's 2015 vote is probably safe, and of the 5% of the total electorate who might potentially dump Labour a substantial fraction will be Lab-Ukip or Lab-Con switchers. The LDs can also target the Greens with this strategy, but their vote is too small to make much difference to anything.
I guess it just seems like such a waste. The main Opposition is the accursed, Far Left, Zombie Labour, shambling uselessly across the political landscape. It is a democratic necessity that it be replaced with something better, and this would be a great deal quicker and easier to accomplish if the LDs were to provide the nucleus of a viable alternative - effectively, so that we can set about reversing what happened a century ago and replace Labour with the Liberals. Instead, they seem to be intent on following five years behind Labour - creating a social democrat party at the very moment when the soft Left is in serious decline in most of Europe. They're on a hiding to nothing.
What a load of drivel . Look at the vote shares in all September council by elections
Con 24.2% minus 4.9% Lab 28.4% plus 0.2% LDem 18.6% plus 8.3% UKIP 6.2% minus 4.0% Green 4.8% minus 1.6% Nats 7.1% plus 3.3% Others/Ind 10.6% minus 1.3%
The 2 right wing parties could not even get 1/3rd of the votes between them
Interesting snippet from Nevada on the county split - ties in with the debate re WWC & Trump:
"Rurals: The GOP had about a 10,500-voted lead in 2012 after the first week; it is more than 11,000 already this cycle. Watch the rurals." i.e. GOP have surpassed their 2012 1st week rural lead with two days to go.
Invaluable stuff. Thanks.
Needs to be measured against Nevada's big population growth. So you need that as a percentage.
Looks like all that has pretty much come in Clark (so LV) - 6 day Democrat lead is the same there as in 2012 despite a 150K jump in voters at 36K. From what I can see, the rural areas are basically stagnant.
FWIW, I do not think Trump will win Nevada, it was more for what it may tell us generally.
Do you think the dem fall in north Carolina could be Dixiecrats who finally changed party registration to vote for trump in the primaries hence why we seem to be seeing better rep numbers vs. Dem in the early vote?
And so, to modify my original question, if the Liberal Democrats can't win in Richmond Park then where do they go next?
You seem to have developed a huge hostility to the LDs despite admitting having voted for the party in the past. I don't really understand the source or rationale behind your antipathy.
I'm more irritated by the Lib Dems at the moment than anything else. It doesn't bother me that the leadership is disappointed by the EU referendum result, but it does rather grate to have this hardline, defiance of the electorate angle peddled by the leader (against the better advice, on this subject anyway, of figures like Vince Cable.) The centre of gravity in British politics (south of the Tweed at least) has shifted somewhat rightwards, against which backdrop the reflexive reaction against Clegg and in favour of becoming an Ed Miliband tribute act seems peculiarly self-defeating, even if it is understandable after what happened to them last year.
They're essentially turning their backs on soft centre-right voters and concentrating instead on trying to win back a tiny cohort of middle-class lefties who fulfil all of the following criteria: (a) liked EdM (b) don't like Corbyn (c) are willing to forgive them for the Coalition. It's a recipe for disaster. In almost any likely scenario about 5 in 6 of Labour's 2015 vote is probably safe, and of the 5% of the total electorate who might potentially dump Labour a substantial fraction will be Lab-Ukip or Lab-Con switchers. The LDs can also target the Greens with this strategy, but their vote is too small to make much difference to anything.
I guess it just seems like such a waste. The main Opposition is the accursed, Far Left, Zombie Labour, shambling uselessly across the political landscape. It is a democratic necessity that it be replaced with something better, and this would be a great deal quicker and easier to accomplish if the LDs were to provide the nucleus of a viable alternative - effectively, so that we can set about reversing what happened a century ago and replace Labour with the Liberals. Instead, they seem to be intent on following five years behind Labour - creating a social democrat party at the very moment when the soft Left is in serious decline in most of Europe. They're on a hiding to nothing.
Lib Dems have been infiltrated by the Social Democrat Party and veered away from liberal principles.
Lib Dems need to return to Gladstone's Liberals.
Gladstonian liberalism consisted of limited government expenditure and low taxation whilst making sure government had balanced budgets and the classical liberal stress on self-help and freedom of choice. Gladstonian liberalism also emphasised free trade, little government intervention in the economy and equality of opportunity through institutional reform.
Interesting snippet from Nevada on the county split - ties in with the debate re WWC & Trump:
"Rurals: The GOP had about a 10,500-voted lead in 2012 after the first week; it is more than 11,000 already this cycle. Watch the rurals." i.e. GOP have surpassed their 2012 1st week rural lead with two days to go.
Invaluable stuff. Thanks.
Needs to be measured against Nevada's big population growth. So you need that as a percentage.
Looks like all that has pretty much come in Clark (so LV) - 6 day Democrat lead is the same there as in 2012 despite a 150K jump in voters at 36K. From what I can see, the rural areas are basically stagnant.
FWIW, I do not think Trump will win Nevada, it was more for what it may tell us generally.
Do you think the dem fall in north Carolina could be Dixiecrats who finally changed party registration to vote for trump in the primaries hence why we seem to be seeing better rep numbers vs. Dem in the early vote?
That is a possibility (I do not know the NC rules there re primary voting). What I would be far more worried about, if I was HRC, was the sharp AA drop-off and, to a lesser degree, that the Millennials are not coming out strongly. As you mentioned before, though, we will have a better idea re the AA pattern next week.
Does anyone still believe Trump can win ? Seriously ?
Trump's strategy of Romney 12 + FOP was the only viable path to 270.
However the strategy started to come apart from early on. Of the Romney 12 he has been struggling badly in NC and is having to play defence in Utah and Arizona with polls tightening in Georgia and Texas.
FOP states are even worse. Ohio is highly competitive, but most Florida polls are tending blue and Pennsylvania is way outside the margin of error.
Comments
"Rurals: The GOP had about a 10,500-voted lead in 2012 after the first week; it is more than 11,000 already this cycle. Watch the rurals." i.e. GOP have surpassed their 2012 1st week rural lead with two days to go.
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/792021827824545792
The right-wing party stated it will not field a candidate against Mr Goldsmith, saying it agrees with his stance on the third Heathrow runway while praising his commitment to the Brexit campaign."
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-to-back-zac-goldsmith-in-richmond-park-byelection-a3380561.html
"Well my name's John Lee Pettimore
Same as my daddy and his daddy before
You hardly ever saw Grandaddy down here
He only come to town about twice a year"
And one of those was to vote for Donald Trump.....
In all probability, if one candidate died, the other would win the election anyway as it's no doubt a lot harder to get the vote out for a dead candidate than a live one. But in the unlikely event that the dead candidate 'won' (or, alternatively, that they died between polling day and the Electoral College vote), state law may mandate enough Electors to vote as directed for void votes to mean that neither reaches 270.
- Just lived through the Thirty Tyrants
- Noticed that the Thirty were strangely congruent with the pupils of Socrates.
I think Socrates knew alright; I am guessing he would have been a Remainer
Deliverance is a masterpiece. It could only be done by a foreign director, the great John Boorman, and critiqued Vietnam brilliantly without you realising it. That 70's American cinema is sublime.
So yes, there's value in Trump at his current price of 5.25, and he may well win.
May I ask what you think a fair price would be at the moment?
Another point: during the Brexit campaigning, most commentators didn't comprehend just how important an issue immigration was. They were encouraged in their lack of understanding by pollsters who asked utterly stupid questions such as please tick which of these is most important to you: a) pressure on housing, b) employment problems, c) assimilation of refugees, d) pressure of immigration on the economy.
A new email released by Wikileaks as part of the Podesta dump features Hillary ally Wendy Bronfein advising Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta on how to reach “f**king dumb” young people.
Marketing executive Bronfein tells Podesta that Clinton “may not be the best face” to attract younger voters and that she needs to utilize “trending figures” as par of an “infusion to pull younger voters” because “that’s the crap that young people pay attention to”.
Bronfein goes on to state, “It’s f**king dumb but being “cool” counts for more than it maybe should.”
She references Bill Clinton’s saxophone playing as an example of this before asserting, “I hate to generalize a generation but by social media nature, they “follow”. So if someone they identify as cool endorses – they will likely fall in line with that candidate.”
Drudge
Campaign Struggles to Reach 'F*cking Dumb' Young People... https://t.co/XwEjtL4cUO
"The biggest problem for the Trump campaign is overall, where are you going to get 270?"
http://www.local10.com/news/national/donald-trumps-tough-path-to-the-white-house
*Kremlinology alert* Philip Hammond was quietly made first secretary of state 10 days ago. Means he'll deputise at PMQs (h/t @robfuller91)
For those who've paid attention to this area, this decision is going to be interesting to watch played out, especially as HMRC want money from those it deems to be employed.
It just confirms that UK employment law is a mess and a proper solution needs to be found.
Edited extra bit: years ago I heard the same thing about saris[sp] and flying to India.
No wonder the LibDems want to chuck him out....
What would you imagine Lynton Crosby's 2015 emails and texts would be like if they came to light?. What if they put a recording on at election HQ and released it?
So yes, there's value in Trump at his current price of 5.25, and he may well win.
May I ask what you think a fair price would be at the moment?
My own view is 2/1, especially given what we are seeing in some of the early voting trends. In a number of big, bellweather states in the East / Midwest (PA, OH, NC, even VA and MI) HRC needs a high turnout amongst AAs to offset favourable demographics for Trump amongst the White population. But we seem to be getting data from Ohio, NC and possibly VA suggesting AA turnout is sharply down.
While HRC will benefit from the Hispanic vote, realistically that only counts in NV, CO and possibly AZ (and, in the later, I think border issues will drive turnout amongst whites). I do not count FL, because its Hispanic population is more Cuban in nature, which is an entirely different phenomenon to Mexican etc immigrants.
"I am down to the Red Bull garage and both rear brakes on Max Verstappen's car are on fire."
From BBC livefeed.
Like come on.
Certainly "As goes Pennslyvania, so goes the nation" would be a sensible conclusion though.
Although I'm not sure if Canadian iPhones will work here because of the different bands they use, nor will you be able to use the warranty or genius bar in the UK.
NAT - Clinton 49.3 .. Trump 38.4
FL - Clinton 52.0 .. Trump 39.4
http://polls.saintleo.edu/clinton-lead-growing-in-florida-and-across-the-u-s-in-new-saint-leo-poll-and-most-expect-her-to-win-the-presidency/
Stefan Molyneux
An entertaining excerpt on Immigration double standards. https://t.co/BvviCDGOjr
The whole thing is here
https://youtu.be/K-lwKOOYgFo
Ok it's breitbart, but it seems as if the RNC and Trump are kissing and making
outup.Brokenwheel, could you send me the links to where you are getting the Florida data - I would be interested to take a look.
Also, someone on here posted a tweet from a US source yesterday about a pattern emerging re more white liberals / Hispanics for HRC and fewer AAs. Could anyone repost? I cannot find it in my history but when I looked at the author's other tweets, it was suggesting that AA early voting in Virginia was also sharply down.
https://mobile.twitter.com/electproject?lang=en-gb
This is a really good feed to follow. I will link evidence of Hispanic vote rising and AA vote falling later
Terrorism is the top issue for Americans.
Are they frit?
Two Clinton staff told Podesta that phishing email "is REAL" despite losing $1000s
1) https://t.co/vIwD9If2jV
2) https://t.co/gYEuRUqRhh
Yes indeed. Some of us have realised a twenty percent increase in the sterling value of one's portfolio over the last few months. Somehow I doubt that will hold up.
@Toms......
Brexit was a vote against elites, and oh yes....that vote has directly led to dramatically enriching the elite through enhancing their portfolios.
I looked at my holdings yesterday because I'm starting the dreaded tax return. I haven't looked at them since this time last year. I'm ashamed to be honest about how much money I have made by doing sweet FA.
It doesn't seem fair that things are just so stacked up for the rich. Once you acquire assets, the money just keeps rolling in. If you lose one way (exchange rates) you gain in another.
WikiLeaks reveals Hillary Clinton hid the "depth" of her email scandal from her own campaign manager and staff https://t.co/OT1oHcyUAl https://t.co/PBBTggVHTk
https://twitter.com/ThePoke/status/791975922626953216
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/791435246906540032
They're essentially turning their backs on soft centre-right voters and concentrating instead on trying to win back a tiny cohort of middle-class lefties who fulfil all of the following criteria: (a) liked EdM (b) don't like Corbyn (c) are willing to forgive them for the Coalition. It's a recipe for disaster. In almost any likely scenario about 5 in 6 of Labour's 2015 vote is probably safe, and of the 5% of the total electorate who might potentially dump Labour a substantial fraction will be Lab-Ukip or Lab-Con switchers. The LDs can also target the Greens with this strategy, but their vote is too small to make much difference to anything.
I guess it just seems like such a waste. The main Opposition is the accursed, Far Left, Zombie Labour, shambling uselessly across the political landscape. It is a democratic necessity that it be replaced with something better, and this would be a great deal quicker and easier to accomplish if the LDs were to provide the nucleus of a viable alternative - effectively, so that we can set about reversing what happened a century ago and replace Labour with the Liberals. Instead, they seem to be intent on following five years behind Labour - creating a social democrat party at the very moment when the soft Left is in serious decline in most of Europe. They're on a hiding to nothing.
1) "The lies Trump told this week: from Mosul 'disaster' to leaked Clinton emails -
Not even two weeks into the battle for Mosul, Trump has declared it 'a total disaster'. Commanders have disagreed."
2) "Islamic State fighters have taken 'tens of thousands' of people hostage and are herding them towards the city of Mosul for use as human shields as the battle for the militant group's last major Iraqi stronghold intensifies, the United Nations has said"
2) Facts are sacred.
Does Kingdom Asunder have any themes of stopping the badger cull whilst saving a few whales and curtailing global warming whilst promoting vegetarianism. If it does then......
Edited extra bit: also, Prey: Seven Tales of Beastly Terror [an anthology to which I contributed] had all the money go to WWF.
A B plus for effort Morris....
FWIW, I do not think Trump will win Nevada, it was more for what it may tell us generally.
From the Daily Express
Will the Pirate Party win the Iceland election?
The Pirate Party appears to be on course for victory, according to a poll from the Social Science Research Institute at the University of Iceland.
But another poll, from MMR, shows that the Pirate Party is trailing behind the Independence party and and is expected to come second.
The Pirate Party’s message has resonated with disaffected young people amid public anger against the political establishment.
This weekend's election was sparked when Iceland’s Prime Minister Sigmundur Davið Gunnlaugsson resigned due to the Panama Paper scandal.
His party Progressive is faring badly in the polls and the Independence party remains the Pirate Party’s biggest rival in the election.
The Pirate Party has also won support due to the Iceland’s slow recovery from its banking crisis during the global meltdown in 2008.
It is part of a wave of populist parties gaining greater influence across Europe.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/726167/Pirate-Party-who-are-radical-movement-will-win-Iceland-election-2016-Birgitta-Jonsdottir
As I have posted on here, the early voting looks poor for HRC in NC; Brokenwheel has suggested it could be the same in FL; and there are numerous reports of AA voting down sharply in many places, which is a key bedrock, including OH.
Given what has happened over the past 12 months with what has happened vs. what the polls said, you would have to be brave to be guided by the polls.
Con 24.2% minus 4.9%
Lab 28.4% plus 0.2%
LDem 18.6% plus 8.3%
UKIP 6.2% minus 4.0%
Green 4.8% minus 1.6%
Nats 7.1% plus 3.3%
Others/Ind 10.6% minus 1.3%
The 2 right wing parties could not even get 1/3rd of the votes between them
Lib Dems have been infiltrated by the Social Democrat Party and veered away from liberal principles.
Lib Dems need to return to Gladstone's Liberals.
Gladstonian liberalism consisted of limited government expenditure and low taxation whilst making sure government had balanced budgets and the classical liberal stress on self-help and freedom of choice. Gladstonian liberalism also emphasised free trade, little government intervention in the economy and equality of opportunity through institutional reform.
Emails...
However the strategy started to come apart from early on. Of the Romney 12 he has been struggling badly in NC and is having to play defence in Utah and Arizona with polls tightening in Georgia and Texas.
FOP states are even worse. Ohio is highly competitive, but most Florida polls are tending blue and Pennsylvania is way outside the margin of error.