I feel that Clinton's lead is self limiting. People can bring themselves to vote for her if there is thought to be a real risk of the alternative which is even worse but they do so with a sense of self loathing. If she looks likely to win easily then people think that they don't have to bother and can feel clean. Conversely, if the polling gets closer they will. 5% looks about the balancing point.
depends on the poll, but a 5% lead is pretty much an early night win for Clinton anyway.
Precisely. Her only risk is that people leave the deeply unpleasant task of voting for the second worst candidate in history to someone else. No wonder she is working so hard on early voting.
On what basis do you say she's the second worst candidate in history?
She's given no reason to vote for her other than her identity.
At least Obama had healthcare.
She has lots of policy. And her favourabity has gone up a lot.
Also, i do feel RCP should take out that crappy LA times poll.
The 350,000,000 a week for the NHS was the most iconic symbol of the referendum and it was most closely associated with Boris. It was clear way before the vote that this figure was bogus but that wont stop the irredeemably ignorant from wanting to take revenge when the NHS reaches cash starved crisis point as it always does.
The only thing to look forward to in the calamitous decision to leave te EU is witnessing the slow lingering political death of the leading Tories-particularly Johnson-who were rsponsible for it.
Certainly in my anecdata before the referendum (overheard conversations with patients in particular) the two big factors were immigration and the extra money for the NHS. Obviously my workplace is biased this way, but nonethess it was significant.
The voters of Leaverstan were typically older, poorer, and less able to access private resources to fund their health and social care than the voters of Remania. They want an old style welfare state as part of their socially conservative Britain. May and Hammond are going to have to find the money.
Alaistair is not exagerrating the stress on the system, indeed he understates it. Last Tuesday there were 20 ambulances in the forecourt at Leicester Royal Infirmary with patients in the back, unable to offload as there was no space or beds in our main hospital. This is a weekly event happenning up and down the land.
because nobody else ever has stress at their workplace.
Or limited resources, or cuts in resources, or demand exceeding organisational capacity.....
Nevertheless a government is not going to fall because people are getting their insurance quotes late or the supermarket has run out of beans.
I feel that Clinton's lead is self limiting. People can bring themselves to vote for her if there is thought to be a real risk of the alternative which is even worse but they do so with a sense of self loathing. If she looks likely to win easily then people think that they don't have to bother and can feel clean. Conversely, if the polling gets closer they will. 5% looks about the balancing point.
depends on the poll, but a 5% lead is pretty much an early night win for Clinton anyway.
Precisely. Her only risk is that people leave the deeply unpleasant task of voting for the second worst candidate in history to someone else. No wonder she is working so hard on early voting.
On what basis do you say she's the second worst candidate in history?
She's given no reason to vote for her other than her identity.
At least Obama had healthcare.
She has lots of policy. And her favourabity has gone up a lot.
Also, i do feel RCP should take out that crappy LA times poll.
But the problem is if you suggest "closing a&e" people start screaming before they even think about whether it's the right thing to do to improve patient care
That is true of literally any proposed change to the NHS.
Was the plan not to do the sort of triage Charles describes over the phone (111) or online (NHS Direct)? Then you go buy the plaster or painkillers from the chemist yourself.
Doesn't work. 24 hour GPs would be a good triage location.
But hard to see it would be cost effective to almost treble the opening hours of tons of GP practices.
Because a&e is very expensive and inadequate. This is about maximising capacity and patient care.
Aside from the complex cost/benefit analysis, I guess the risk would be that 24/7 GPs might drive up demand coming in the front end but do little to reduce the stream coming in through the hospital door.
Just as congestion is the ultimate check on rising traffic, the hassle and wait for a GP appointment is one of the things that deters people bothering them with the more trivial niggles.
The 350,000,000 a week for the NHS was the most iconic symbol of the referendum and it was most closely associated with Boris. It was clear way before the vote that this figure was bogus but that wont stop the irredeemably ignorant from wanting to take revenge when the NHS reaches cash starved crisis point as it always does.
The only thing to look forward to in the calamitous decision to leave te EU is witnessing the slow lingering political death of the leading Tories-particularly Johnson-who were rsponsible for it.
Certainly in my anecdata before the referendum (overheard conversations with patients in particular) the two big factors were immigration and the extra money for the NHS. Obviously my workplace is biased this way, but nonethess it was significant.
The voters of Leaverstan were typically older, poorer, and less able to access private resources to fund their health and social care than the voters of Remania. They want an old style welfare state as part of their socially conservative Britain. May and Hammond are going to have to find the money.
Alaistair is not exagerating the stress on the system, indeed he understates it. Last Tuesday there were 20 ambulances in the forecourt at Leicester Royal Infirmary with patients in the back, unable to offload as there was no space or beds in our main hospital. This is a weekly event happenning up and down the land.
because nobody else ever has stress at their workplace.
I meant stress on the system, though I agree the stress on individuals is an issue too. That is a large part of the reason retention of staff by the NHS is such a problem.
Retention of staff is an issue because you dont train enough of them or manage them well
The 350,000,000 a week for the NHS was the most iconic symbol of the referendum and it was most closely associated with Boris. It was clear way before the vote that this figure was bogus but that wont stop the irredeemably ignorant from wanting to take revenge when the NHS reaches cash starved crisis point as it always does.
The only thing to look forward to in the calamitous decision to leave te EU is witnessing the slow lingering political death of the leading Tories-particularly Johnson-who were rsponsible for it.
Certainly in my anecdata before the referendum (overheard conversations with patients in particular) the two big factors were immigration and the extra money for the NHS. Obviously my workplace is biased this way, but nonethess it was significant.
The voters of Leaverstan were typically older, poorer, and less able to access private resources to fund their health and social care than the voters of Remania. They want an old style welfare state as part of their socially conservative Britain. May and Hammond are going to have to find the money.
Alaistair is not exagerrating the stress on the system, indeed he understates it. Last Tuesday there were 20 ambulances in the forecourt at Leicester Royal Infirmary with patients in the back, unable to offload as there was no space or beds in our main hospital. This is a weekly event happenning up and down the land.
because nobody else ever has stress at their workplace.
Or limited resources, or cuts in resources, or demand exceeding organisational capacity.....
Nevertheless a government is not going to fall because people are getting their insurance quotes late or the supermarket has run out of beans.
last week running out of marmite was Brexitageddon according to the remainers on the thread
But the problem is if you suggest "closing a&e" people start screaming before they even think about whether it's the right thing to do to improve patient care
That is true of literally any proposed change to the NHS.
Was the plan not to do the sort of triage Charles describes over the phone (111) or online (NHS Direct)? Then you go buy the plaster or painkillers from the chemist yourself.
Doesn't work. 24 hour GPs would be a good triage location.
But hard to see it would be cost effective to almost treble the opening hours of tons of GP practices.
Because a&e is very expensive and inadequate. This is about maximising capacity and patient care.
Aside from the complex cost/benefit analysis, I guess the risk would be that 24/7 GPs might drive up demand coming in the front end but do little to reduce the stream coming in through the hospital door.
Too many people go to hospitals at the moment when they don't need to do so. But opening gps is only part of the solution - you need more primary and out patient care and fewer nights in an expensive highly specced facility
Interesting thread Mr Meeks. – Brexit sounds like the perfect catalyst to grab the NHS by the scruff of the neck and drag it into the 21st century where it might be fit for purpose..
Interesting thread Mr Meeks. – Brexit sounds like the perfect catalyst to grab the NHS by the scruff of the neck and drag it into the 21st century where it might be fit for purpose..
Where's the magic money tree? You'll need one because the alternatives to the NHS are all more expensive.
The 350,000,000 a week for the NHS was the most iconic symbol of the referendum and it was most closely associated with Boris. It was clear way before the vote that this figure was bogus but that wont stop the irredeemably ignorant from wanting to take revenge when the NHS reaches cash starved crisis point as it always does.
The only thing to look forward to in the calamitous decision to leave te EU is witnessing the slow lingering political death of the leading Tories-particularly Johnson-who were rsponsible for it.
Certainly in my anecdata before the referendum (overheard conversations with patients in particular) the two big factors were immigration and the extra money for the NHS. Obviously my workplace is biased this way, but nonethess it was significant.
The voters of Leaverstan were typically older, poorer, and less able to access private resources to fund their health and social care than the voters of Remania. They want an old style welfare state as part of their socially conservative Britain. May and Hammond are going to have to find the money.
Alaistair is not exagerrating the stress on the system, indeed he understates it. Last Tuesday there were 20 ambulances in the forecourt at Leicester Royal Infirmary with patients in the back, unable to offload as there was no space or beds in our main hospital. This is a weekly event happenning up and down the land.
because nobody else ever has stress at their workplace.
Or limited resources, or cuts in resources, or demand exceeding organisational capacity.....
Nevertheless a government is not going to fall because people are getting their insurance quotes late or the supermarket has run out of beans.
Government's don't fall because of a 'Crisis in the NHS' - if they did, the Tories would never get elected again because each winter we face 'unprecedented (fill in apocalyptic whatsit)'.....The NHS is a stick the electorate use to beat governments of either party with.....
But the problem is if you suggest "closing a&e" people start screaming before they even think about whether it's the right thing to do to improve patient care
That is true of literally any proposed change to the NHS.
Was the plan not to do the sort of triage Charles describes over the phone (111) or online (NHS Direct)? Then you go buy the plaster or painkillers from the chemist yourself.
Doesn't work. 24 hour GPs would be a good triage location.
But hard to see it would be cost effective to almost treble the opening hours of tons of GP practices.
Because a&e is very expensive and inadequate. This is about maximising capacity and patient care.
Aside from the complex cost/benefit analysis, I guess the risk would be that 24/7 GPs might drive up demand coming in the front end but do little to reduce the stream coming in through the hospital door.
Too many people go to hospitals at the moment when they don't need to do so. But opening gps is only part of the solution - you need more primary and out patient care and fewer nights in an expensive highly specced facility
We need to keep an eye on the accountants. It is all very well saying people don't need to sleep in big, expensive buildings, but even if we send all the patients to the Savoy Hotel each night, the hospital will still be there and you'll just be averaging its fixed costs over fewer hours.
I feel that Clinton's lead is self limiting. People can bring themselves to vote for her if there is thought to be a real risk of the alternative which is even worse but they do so with a sense of self loathing. If she looks likely to win easily then people think that they don't have to bother and can feel clean. Conversely, if the polling gets closer they will. 5% looks about the balancing point.
depends on the poll, but a 5% lead is pretty much an early night win for Clinton anyway.
Precisely. Her only risk is that people leave the deeply unpleasant task of voting for the second worst candidate in history to someone else. No wonder she is working so hard on early voting.
On what basis do you say she's the second worst candidate in history?
She's given no reason to vote for her other than her identity.
At least Obama had healthcare.
She has lots of policy. And her favourabity has gone up a lot.
Also, i do feel RCP should take out that crappy LA times poll.
You get more accurate results, overall, when you include outliers.
The 350,000,000 a week for the NHS was the most iconic symbol of the referendum and it was most closely associated with Boris. It was clear way before the vote that this figure was bogus but that wont stop the irredeemably ignorant from wanting to take revenge when the NHS reaches cash starved crisis point as it always does.
The only thing to look forward to in the calamitous decision to leave te EU is witnessing the slow lingering political death of the leading Tories-particularly Johnson-who were rsponsible for it.
Certainly in my anecdata before the referendum (overheard conversations with patients in particular) the two big factors were immigration and the extra money for the NHS. Obviously my workplace is biased this way, but nonethess it was significant.
The voters of Leaverstan were typically older, poorer, and less able to access private resources to fund their health and social care than the voters of Remania. They want an old style welfare state as part of their socially conservative Britain. May and Hammond are going to have to find the money.
Alaistair is not exagerrating the stress on the system, indeed he understates it. Last Tuesday there were 20 ambulances in the forecourt at Leicester Royal Infirmary with patients in the back, unable to offload as there was no space or beds in our main hospital. This is a weekly event happenning up and down the land.
because nobody else ever has stress at their workplace.
Or limited resources, or cuts in resources, or demand exceeding organisational capacity.....
Nevertheless a government is not going to fall because people are getting their insurance quotes late or the supermarket has run out of beans.
last week running out of marmite was Brexitageddon according to the remainers on the thread
We were at starvation point, shivering as we roasted bits of dog over braziers.
Interesting thread Mr Meeks. – Brexit sounds like the perfect catalyst to grab the NHS by the scruff of the neck and drag it into the 21st century where it might be fit for purpose..
Where's the magic money tree? You'll need one because the alternatives to the NHS are all more expensive.
I feel that Clinton's lead is self limiting. People can bring themselves to vote for her if there is thought to be a real risk of the alternative which is even worse but they do so with a sense of self loathing. If she looks likely to win easily then people think that they don't have to bother and can feel clean. Conversely, if the polling gets closer they will. 5% looks about the balancing point.
depends on the poll, but a 5% lead is pretty much an early night win for Clinton anyway.
Precisely. Her only risk is that people leave the deeply unpleasant task of voting for the second worst candidate in history to someone else. No wonder she is working so hard on early voting.
On what basis do you say she's the second worst candidate in history?
She's given no reason to vote for her other than her identity.
At least Obama had healthcare.
Worse than Horace Greeley ? John W Davis ? Alf Landon ? George Wallace ? Barry Goldwater ? George McGovern ?
The 350,000,000 a week for the NHS was the most iconic symbol of the referendum and it was most closely associated with Boris. It was clear way before the vote that this figure was bogus but that wont stop the irredeemably ignorant from wanting to take revenge when the NHS reaches cash starved crisis point as it always does.
The only thing to look forward to in the calamitous decision to leave te EU is witnessing the slow lingering political death of the leading Tories-particularly Johnson-who were rsponsible for it.
Certainly in my anecdata before the referendum (overheard conversations with patients in particular) the two big factors were immigration and the extra money for the NHS. Obviously my workplace is biased this way, but nonethess it was significant.
The voters of Leaverstan were typically older, poorer, and less able to access private resources to fund their health and social care than the voters of Remania. They want an old style welfare state as part of their socially conservative Britain. May and Hammond are going to have to find the money.
Alaistair is not exagerrating the stress on the system, indeed he understates it. Last Tuesday there were 20 ambulances in the forecourt at Leicester Royal Infirmary with patients in the back, unable to offload as there was no space or beds in our main hospital. This is a weekly event happenning up and down the land.
because nobody else ever has stress at their workplace.
Or limited resources, or cuts in resources, or demand exceeding organisational capacity.....
Nevertheless a government is not going to fall because people are getting their insurance quotes late or the supermarket has run out of beans.
last week running out of marmite was Brexitageddon according to the remainers on the thread
We were at starvation point, shivering as we roasted bits of dog over braziers.
I feel that Clinton's lead is self limiting. People can bring themselves to vote for her if there is thought to be a real risk of the alternative which is even worse but they do so with a sense of self loathing. If she looks likely to win easily then people think that they don't have to bother and can feel clean. Conversely, if the polling gets closer they will. 5% looks about the balancing point.
People really don't like her. They just dislike Trump more.
Oh, we might get an actual NHS crisis this time? Makes a change.
I'm sure the government will take a hit if that happens, even with Corbyn leading labour. On the NHS, we've proven we only want platitudes, and he can do that while past performance is the government ideas won't work or they'll be too scared to try what will work.
I'm told by people who work with both that the NHS is far worse run than Whitehall. Everyone always says they will improve that yet it never improves, so either it's impossible or we'll have to hope when a real crisis, not the annual 'crisis', occurs that the ideas and will to fix it will happen.
I'm not optimistic. I'll put that in a pile with 'probably have to work until I die' as a problem I'll just have to live with.
A majority of UK adults feel the need for Britain to govern itself outweighs the economic risks of Brexit with 56% holding this opinion in comparison to the 44% who take the opposite view.
More people approve of Theresa May’s performance regarding the ongoing negotiations over Brexit than disapprove (58% total approve figure compared to 25% total disapprove figure)
Is there still time for Trump to drive an initiative to grasp control of the agenda? Clinton has stopped talking about her single policy of "I'm not Donald Trump". Trump can't talk about his policy of "Not starting World War III like Clinton will" because all the media want to talk about is groping. Note the morality at play - it's ok to propose banning American Muslims from their own country, building a wall to keep bad home rapists out, but have a history of groping women when your name isn't Bill and That's Appalling.
He needs to do a Hague. 7 days to save your jobs. Your town. Your future. Didn't work for Hague. Probably won't work for Trump. But I remain convinced that shy Trumpers are missing from the polls and that Clinton is at best the least worst choice, hardly a motivation to actually vote
Meanwhile here in Leaverstan immeadiately after the Referendum campaign very big cuts* to the NHS** were announced. There has been endless debate for years but the speed and concreteness of the proposals has shocked a lot of people. The never actually thought it would happen. What many capital C Conservatives now want to disown is the nature of small c conservatism among the WWC Leave vote they now lionise. As well as bring back the jobs and social cohesion that has disappeared they want the strong welfare state they remember back as well. There are multiple reasons something like Call the Midwife and it's time setting appeals.
I'm the sort of guardian reading liberal that things the proposed reorganisation largely makes sense. I'm also the sort of Traitorous Remoaner who now supports ramming it through Friday accelerationist purposes. But all singing, all dancing DGH's catering to healthcare needs of 30 years ago are a big part of the identity many Leave voters thought they were defending on 23rd June. These voters have been mobilised now and told all their greviences are valid. It's a new world.
* Actually the cuts are small but the reorganisation is massive and any change in the NHS is a cut of course.
** Actually the vast bulk of the local NHS is unaffected but Hospitals = the NHS in the public mind.
Is there still time for Trump to drive an initiative to grasp control of the agenda? Clinton has stopped talking about her single policy of "I'm not Donald Trump". Trump can't talk about his policy of "Not starting World War III like Clinton will" because all the media want to talk about is groping. Note the morality at play - it's ok to propose banning American Muslims from their own country, building a wall to keep bad home rapists out, but have a history of groping women when your name isn't Bill and That's Appalling.
He needs to do a Hague. 7 days to save your jobs. Your town. Your future. Didn't work for Hague. Probably won't work for Trump. But I remain convinced that shy Trumpers are missing from the polls and that Clinton is at best the least worst choice, hardly a motivation to actually vote
Perversely, it's quite possible that the polls and media all showing a clear win for Hillary might lead to a reduction in turnout on the day. The majority of Americans hate the pair of them and are only voting the way they are as the least-worst option.
£350 million for the NHS. A mendacious lie pedalled by Leaver-Corbynites like SandyRentool despite their knowing full well it was a bare face, flat lie.
They should hang their heads in shame.
Brwrecksit is coming - as Theresa May knew then as she knows now.
Interesting thread Mr Meeks. – Brexit sounds like the perfect catalyst to grab the NHS by the scruff of the neck and drag it into the 21st century where it might be fit for purpose..
Where's the magic money tree? You'll need one because the alternatives to the NHS are all more expensive.
All of them? Every single one?
Cut the cost of the NHS immediately. Charge everyone £3 to see the Doctor for any consultation The surgeries/.A and E would empty overnight... If all else fails itd bring in 350 million a week
"They’ve just voted in a referendum where they were told that £350 million a week could be saved for the NHS. Reasonably enough they are going to ask why this has not happened."
Some people voted on that basis. I didn't. And expecting savings from the EU to be spent on the NHS when we're still in the EU betrays an ignorance of the most basic principles of the fourth dimension.
It's almost as if some on the left want to weaponise the NHS for political gain. Gosh.
[There is a genuine issue of funding the NHS, particularly given the ageing population and so forth. However, raising it in this immediately makes it look like a political football].
The 350,000,000 a week for the NHS was the most iconic symbol of the referendum and it was most closely associated with Boris. It was clear way before the vote that this figure was bogus but that wont stop the irredeemably ignorant from wanting to take revenge when the NHS reaches cash starved crisis point as it always does.
The only thing to look forward to in the calamitous decision to leave te EU is witnessing the slow lingering political death of the leading Tories-particularly Johnson-who were rsponsible for it.
Certainly in my anecdata before the referendum (overheard conversations with patients in particular) the two big factors were immigration and the extra money for the NHS. Obviously my workplace is biased this way, but nonethess it was significant.
The voters of Leaverstan were typically older, poorer, and less able to access private resources to fund their health and social care than the voters of Remania. They want an old style welfare state as part of their socially conservative Britain. May and Hammond are going to have to find the money.
Alaistair is not exagerrating the stress on the system, indeed he understates it. Last Tuesday there were 20 ambulances in the forecourt at Leicester Royal Infirmary with patients in the back, unable to offload as there was no space or beds in our main hospital. This is a weekly event happenning up and down the land.
because nobody else ever has stress at their workplace.
Yes as we have learned on PB, nothing whatsoever can be bad news for the Brexiteers. I know that - I read it every damned day, right here on PB.
Why are the government committed to controlling immigration thanks to a brexit mandate, but are not committed to pumping £350 million a week into the NHS, which also has a brexit mandate? Surely either both are valid or neither.
£350 million for the NHS. A mendacious lie pedalled by Leaver-Corbynites like SandyRentool despite their knowing full well it was a bare face, flat lie.
They should hang their heads in shame.
Brwrecksit is coming - as Theresa May knew then as she knows now.
All lies are mendacious, and the bigger the lie the worse the incompetence of Remain in not nailing it; they had over a month to do so. "Don't get mad, get even", and reflect on the fact that Leave is not a party, and even if it were T May would not be a member of it.
Is there still time for Trump to drive an initiative to grasp control of the agenda? Clinton has stopped talking about her single policy of "I'm not Donald Trump". Trump can't talk about his policy of "Not starting World War III like Clinton will" because all the media want to talk about is groping. Note the morality at play - it's ok to propose banning American Muslims from their own country, building a wall to keep bad home rapists out, but have a history of groping women when your name isn't Bill and That's Appalling.
He needs to do a Hague. 7 days to save your jobs. Your town. Your future. Didn't work for Hague. Probably won't work for Trump. But I remain convinced that shy Trumpers are missing from the polls and that Clinton is at best the least worst choice, hardly a motivation to actually vote
"it's ok to propose banning American Muslims from their own country, building a wall to keep bad home rapists out, but have a history of groping women when your name isn't Bill and That's Appalling...."
Can't help thinking you're presenting a false dichotomy there. I would think that the sets of those variously appalled overlap fairly comprehensively.
£350 million for the NHS. A mendacious lie pedalled by Leaver-Corbynites like SandyRentool despite their knowing full well it was a bare face, flat lie.
They should hang their heads in shame.
Brwrecksit is coming - as Theresa May knew then as she knows now.
Are you going to cwy and cwy until mean bwecksit stops?
A majority of UK adults feel the need for Britain to govern itself outweighs the economic risks of Brexit with 56% holding this opinion in comparison to the 44% who take the opposite view.
More people approve of Theresa May’s performance regarding the ongoing negotiations over Brexit than disapprove (58% total approve figure compared to 25% total disapprove figure)
Thank You. Those are very interesting numbers. While they show there is no Bremorse the 47%/46% figures on a referendum rerun show there are an awful lot of potential remoaners. It suggests almost no one has changed their mind and we remain deeply divided on the issue. It seems our strategy f not shutting up, holding the Leave Campaign to account for it's polices and scrutinising detail has a very large potential audience.
A majority of UK adults feel the need for Britain to govern itself outweighs the economic risks of Brexit with 56% holding this opinion in comparison to the 44% who take the opposite view.
More people approve of Theresa May’s performance regarding the ongoing negotiations over Brexit than disapprove (58% total approve figure compared to 25% total disapprove figure)
Survation's last poll in the campaign had Remain 2% ahead, implying a tiny shift to Leave since then. Leave leas 52.5% to 47.5% among people who actually voted in the Referendum.
£350 million for the NHS. A mendacious lie pedalled by Leaver-Corbynites like SandyRentool despite their knowing full well it was a bare face, flat lie.
They should hang their heads in shame.
Brwrecksit is coming - as Theresa May knew then as she knows now.
for Ross Brawn, F1 genius. Also, a certain Adrian Newey was seen hanging around Red Bull in Austin, rumours he will be back with the F1 team next year, after some time out with the RB Americas Cup boat race team.
It was immigration control and sovereignty which won it for Leave according to polls not the farcical promise for extra money for the NHS, which was a Vote Leave idea anyway not a Leave. EU one. The NHS is already getting an extra £10 billion this parliament and longer-term those who can afford will need to be encouraged to take out private health insurance
£350 million for the NHS. A mendacious lie pedalled by Leaver-Corbynites like SandyRentool despite their knowing full well it was a bare face, flat lie.
They should hang their heads in shame.
Brwrecksit is coming - as Theresa May knew then as she knows now.
Brwrecksit!
I rather like that, and may use it.
Gotta hand it to some remainers, it's almost as if they want it to fail!
"They’ve just voted in a referendum where they were told that £350 million a week could be saved for the NHS. Reasonably enough they are going to ask why this has not happened."
Some people voted on that basis. I didn't
You are among the overwhelming majority of Leave voters - only 15% cite it as the number one reason for voting Leave - Immigration and Sovereignty were much more important factors.
£350 million for the NHS. A mendacious lie pedalled by Leaver-Corbynites like SandyRentool despite their knowing full well it was a bare face, flat lie.
They should hang their heads in shame.
Brwrecksit is coming - as Theresa May knew then as she knows now.
Brwrecksit!
I rather like that, and may use it.
All credit to ScottP for that one - not one of mine!
I see Justin Timberlake took a selfie of himself inside a polling station in Tennessee yesterday which is illegal in the state, however while he could have been in trouble the DA has now said they will not take action
"They’ve just voted in a referendum where they were told that £350 million a week could be saved for the NHS. Reasonably enough they are going to ask why this has not happened."
Some people voted on that basis. I didn't
You are among the overwhelming majority of Leave voters - only 15% cite it as the number one reason for voting Leave - Immigration and Sovereignty were much more important factors.
Are you saying £350mn a week for a Trump-esque wall around the UK would have been more appealing?
Corbyn should pledge to take the brexit dividend and pump it all into the NHS as promised by Vote Leave, which would drive up support among the northern working class vote and the left generally. It would put May on the back foot as she could be accus d of ignoring the people etc
Actually fulfilling the pledge would be the least of his problems if he actually won the election, so no downside
A majority of UK adults feel the need for Britain to govern itself outweighs the economic risks of Brexit with 56% holding this opinion in comparison to the 44% who take the opposite view.
More people approve of Theresa May’s performance regarding the ongoing negotiations over Brexit than disapprove (58% total approve figure compared to 25% total disapprove figure)
Survation's last poll in the campaign had Remain 2% ahead, implying a tiny shift to Leave since then. Leave leas 52.5% to 47.5% among people who actually voted in the Referendum.
That assumes they haven't reweighed for the Referendum turnout ( which they may not have ) but it's MoE stuff anyway. The narrative on PB is that the country has moved on and all Remain voters should shut up. At least superficially those figures suggest we remain deeply split on the topic.
As a socialist and a feminist were I American I'd still vote for Trump. Yes he's an idiot ruled by his penis but that didn't stop Bill Clinton from being a good president. But on everything else I think he is broadly offering better solutions than continuity Clinton.
My main issue is simple. Their economic system is broken, allowing big corporates to asset strip offshore jobs and industry whilst wanting big tax cuts for the privilege of doing so. When your system is that broken the tried and tested solution is a big war to drive economic output, get the populace chanting USA and culling some of the poorer peons for profit. Personally I look at what the west is doing towards Russia and feel increasingly nervous. Trump is less likely to sabre rattle his way into a shooting war than Hillary Manchurian Candidate Clinton. Regardless of him being a womaniser like Clinton's husband.
I feel that Clinton's lead is self limiting. People can bring themselves to vote for her if there is thought to be a real risk of the alternative which is even worse but they do so with a sense of self loathing. If she looks likely to win easily then people think that they don't have to bother and can feel clean. Conversely, if the polling gets closer they will. 5% looks about the balancing point.
depends on the poll, but a 5% lead is pretty much an early night win for Clinton anyway.
Precisely. Her only risk is that people leave the deeply unpleasant task of voting for the second worst candidate in history to someone else. No wonder she is working so hard on early voting.
On what basis do you say she's the second worst candidate in history?
She's given no reason to vote for her other than her identity.
At least Obama had healthcare.
She has lots of policy. And her favourabity has gone up a lot.
Also, i do feel RCP should take out that crappy LA times poll.
Don't worry, it's balanced out by that ABC poll.
The 538 site gives more comprehensive coverage than RCP, which misses many polls.
A majority of UK adults feel the need for Britain to govern itself outweighs the economic risks of Brexit with 56% holding this opinion in comparison to the 44% who take the opposite view.
More people approve of Theresa May’s performance regarding the ongoing negotiations over Brexit than disapprove (58% total approve figure compared to 25% total disapprove figure)
Survation's last poll in the campaign had Remain 2% ahead, implying a tiny shift to Leave since then. Leave leas 52.5% to 47.5% among people who actually voted in the Referendum.
That assumes they haven't reweighed for the Referendum turnout ( which they may not have ) but it's MoE stuff anyway. The narrative on PB is that the country has moved on and all Remain voters should shut up. At least superficially those figures suggest we remain deeply split on the topic.
A majority of UK adults feel the need for Britain to govern itself outweighs the economic risks of Brexit with 56% holding this opinion in comparison to the 44% who take the opposite view.
More people approve of Theresa May’s performance regarding the ongoing negotiations over Brexit than disapprove (58% total approve figure compared to 25% total disapprove figure)
Survation's last poll in the campaign had Remain 2% ahead, implying a tiny shift to Leave since then. Leave leas 52.5% to 47.5% among people who actually voted in the Referendum.
That assumes they haven't reweighed for the Referendum turnout ( which they may not have ) but it's MoE stuff anyway. The narrative on PB is that the country has moved on and all Remain voters should shut up. At least superficially those figures suggest we remain deeply split on the topic.
You can move on without changing your mind on something.
I feel that Clinton's lead is self limiting. People can bring themselves to vote for her if there is thought to be a real risk of the alternative which is even worse but they do so with a sense of self loathing. If she looks likely to win easily then people think that they don't have to bother and can feel clean. Conversely, if the polling gets closer they will. 5% looks about the balancing point.
depends on the poll, but a 5% lead is pretty much an early night win for Clinton anyway.
Precisely. Her only risk is that people leave the deeply unpleasant task of voting for the second worst candidate in history to someone else. No wonder she is working so hard on early voting.
On what basis do you say she's the second worst candidate in history?
She's given no reason to vote for her other than her identity.
At least Obama had healthcare.
She has lots of policy. And her favourabity has gone up a lot.
Also, i do feel RCP should take out that crappy LA times poll.
Don't worry, it's balanced out by that ABC poll.
The 538 site gives more comprehensive coverage than RCP, which misses many polls.
Mr. Sandpit, yeah, I heard similar about Newey. Undoubtedly good news for Red Bull.
Thinking ahead to next year, the changes are to the car rather than the power unit focus of the past few years.
Expect Red Bull and McLaren to move forward with their superior aero teams, and don't be surprised to see Ferrari scrapping with Williams for fourth place among the constructors.
Why are the government committed to controlling immigration thanks to a brexit mandate, but are not committed to pumping £350 million a week into the NHS, which also has a brexit mandate? Surely either both are valid or neither.
One reason pretending they are obligated to do certain things is an error. It is fact that the vote did not allow people to indicate their reasons for either choice, and we are now governed by someone not even a part of the victorious side's promises, so it is entirely reasonable for the government to press ahead with only those bits they think are either a good idea, politically necessary or achievable. But it is easier for them to offset criticism by pretending a mandate for specific policies.
It's a balanced judgement they need to make. While I was a leaver who doesn't care about immigration, even a lot of reminers do, and most leavers do, so choosing to focus on it makes sense. They need to similarly judge how much they can or should do on the NHS promises. It's just awkward that some aspects will be treated as sacrosanct and others not, when in fact none were. Some are just more appropriate, in one way or another.
£350 million for the NHS. A mendacious lie pedalled by Leaver-Corbynites like SandyRentool despite their knowing full well it was a bare face, flat lie.
They should hang their heads in shame.
Brwrecksit is coming - as Theresa May knew then as she knows now.
Brwrecksit!
I rather like that, and may use it.
That one goes straight on the list with "Bliar", "Camoron", "Fib Dems" et al.
A majority of UK adults feel the need for Britain to govern itself outweighs the economic risks of Brexit with 56% holding this opinion in comparison to the 44% who take the opposite view.
More people approve of Theresa May’s performance regarding the ongoing negotiations over Brexit than disapprove (58% total approve figure compared to 25% total disapprove figure)
Survation's last poll in the campaign had Remain 2% ahead, implying a tiny shift to Leave since then. Leave leas 52.5% to 47.5% among people who actually voted in the Referendum.
That assumes they haven't reweighed for the Referendum turnout ( which they may not have ) but it's MoE stuff anyway. The narrative on PB is that the country has moved on and all Remain voters should shut up. At least superficially those figures suggest we remain deeply split on the topic.
You can move on without changing your mind on something.
Yes it's fair to point out the poll tells us what people think about the issue not how much they care about it or what they think should now happen.
I feel that Clinton's lead is self limiting. People can bring themselves to vote for her if there is thought to be a real risk of the alternative which is even worse but they do so with a sense of self loathing. If she looks likely to win easily then people think that they don't have to bother and can feel clean. Conversely, if the polling gets closer they will. 5% looks about the balancing point.
depends on the poll, but a 5% lead is pretty much an early night win for Clinton anyway.
Since 1948 a majority of presidential elections have been won by more than 5% so the 5% average lead Hillary now has with RCP is not massive, especially with differential turnout and a rise in white working class voters
£350 million for the NHS. A mendacious lie pedalled by Leaver-Corbynites like SandyRentool despite their knowing full well it was a bare face, flat lie.
They should hang their heads in shame.
Brwrecksit is coming - as Theresa May knew then as she knows now.
Brwrecksit!
I rather like that, and may use it.
All credit to ScottP for that one - not one of mine!
He's More Deserving Of Hostile coverAge And Provides More Individual Cases To Be lookEd At. Even in a totally neutral media I'd bet he'd get more hostile coverage. The way over in the US even more than here people loan about the msm, ignoring their preferred media is also mainstream just not majorotarian, is so silly.
A majority of UK adults feel the need for Britain to govern itself outweighs the economic risks of Brexit with 56% holding this opinion in comparison to the 44% who take the opposite view.
More people approve of Theresa May’s performance regarding the ongoing negotiations over Brexit than disapprove (58% total approve figure compared to 25% total disapprove figure)
Survation's last poll in the campaign had Remain 2% ahead, implying a tiny shift to Leave since then. Leave leas 52.5% to 47.5% among people who actually voted in the Referendum.
That assumes they haven't reweighed for the Referendum turnout ( which they may not have ) but it's MoE stuff anyway. The narrative on PB is that the country has moved on and all Remain voters should shut up. At least superficially those figures suggest we remain deeply split on the topic.
The narrative is also that people voted LEAVE for £350million/week for the NHS.
"McLaren's got good aero thanks to Prodromou[sp] and if Honda can sort out the engine next year (big if) I can see them beating Ferrari and potentially challenging for the title. Odds against, of course, but a credible possibility."
Engine's still matter a lot. If the gap's closed, Mercedes' reliability might become a critical factor.
£350 million for the NHS. A mendacious lie pedalled by Leaver-Corbynites like SandyRentool despite their knowing full well it was a bare face, flat lie.
They should hang their heads in shame.
Brwrecksit is coming - as Theresa May knew then as she knows now.
Brwrecksit!
I rather like that, and may use it.
That one goes straight on the list with "Bliar", "Camoron", "Fib Dems" et al.
Were you around on here when Labour were called Zanu Labour? Weird times (and boy, how far have we come!)
I feel that Clinton's lead is self limiting. People can bring themselves to vote for her if there is thought to be a real risk of the alternative which is even worse but they do so with a sense of self loathing. If she looks likely to win easily then people think that they don't have to bother and can feel clean. Conversely, if the polling gets closer they will. 5% looks about the balancing point.
depends on the poll, but a 5% lead is pretty much an early night win for Clinton anyway.
Since 1948 a majority of presidential elections have been won by more than 5% so the 5% average lead Hillary now has with RCP is not massive, especially with differential turnout and a rise in white working class voters
id be interested in your evidence of rise in WWC voters. There is more quantifiable evidence of a eise in hispanic voters.
I feel that Clinton's lead is self limiting. People can bring themselves to vote for her if there is thought to be a real risk of the alternative which is even worse but they do so with a sense of self loathing. If she looks likely to win easily then people think that they don't have to bother and can feel clean. Conversely, if the polling gets closer they will. 5% looks about the balancing point.
depends on the poll, but a 5% lead is pretty much an early night win for Clinton anyway.
Precisely. Her only risk is that people leave the deeply unpleasant task of voting for the second worst candidate in history to someone else. No wonder she is working so hard on early voting.
On what basis do you say she's the second worst candidate in history?
She's given no reason to vote for her other than her identity.
At least Obama had healthcare.
She has lots of policy. And her favourabity has gone up a lot.
Also, i do feel RCP should take out that crappy LA times poll.
Don't worry, it's balanced out by that ABC poll.
The 538 site gives more comprehensive coverage than RCP, which misses many polls.
A majority of UK adults feel the need for Britain to govern itself outweighs the economic risks of Brexit with 56% holding this opinion in comparison to the 44% who take the opposite view.
More people approve of Theresa May’s performance regarding the ongoing negotiations over Brexit than disapprove (58% total approve figure compared to 25% total disapprove figure)
Survation's last poll in the campaign had Remain 2% ahead, implying a tiny shift to Leave since then. Leave leas 52.5% to 47.5% among people who actually voted in the Referendum.
That assumes they haven't reweighed for the Referendum turnout ( which they may not have ) but it's MoE stuff anyway. The narrative on PB is that the country has moved on and all Remain voters should shut up. At least superficially those figures suggest we remain deeply split on the topic.
The narrative is also that people voted LEAVE for £350million/week for the NHS.
The polling says otherwise.
The narrative also said there was no warning about leaving the single market. Turns out that's wrong, too!
As a socialist and a feminist were I American I'd still vote for Trump. Yes he's an idiot ruled by his penis but that didn't stop Bill Clinton from being a good president. But on everything else I think he is broadly offering better solutions than continuity Clinton.
My main issue is simple. Their economic system is broken, allowing big corporates to asset strip offshore jobs and industry whilst wanting big tax cuts for the privilege of doing so. When your system is that broken the tried and tested solution is a big war to drive economic output, get the populace chanting USA and culling some of the poorer peons for profit. Personally I look at what the west is doing towards Russia and feel increasingly nervous. Trump is less likely to sabre rattle his way into a shooting war than Hillary Manchurian Candidate Clinton. Regardless of him being a womaniser like Clinton's husband.
First. Voting Leave and now Trump ? You seem able to stomach a lot of racism and xenophobia to get back to the sort of pre 1960's society that made Socialism in western societies viable. I'd like to jibe such views are odd for a Labour activist. Though a lifetimes experience of northern English Labour tells me they aren't. I'd love to be your Therapist though. It would be fascinating.
"McLaren's got good aero thanks to Prodromou[sp] and if Honda can sort out the engine next year (big if) I can see them beating Ferrari and potentially challenging for the title. Odds against, of course, but a credible possibility."
Engine's still matter a lot. If the gap's closed, Mercedes' reliability might become a critical factor.
Engine dev is free next year, with no more tokens but only four power units allowed. What we should see is a more level playing field, it's said Honda have 'fixed' their ICE and turbocharger, but can't introduce it this season as there's not enough tokens available.
Yes, there's a good chance we'll see Alonso challenging for the title next year, but Hamilton will likely still go off as favourite.
If the much talked about Bahrain tyre test goes ahead, I might head along for a couple of days and see what's happening. Will report back!
As a socialist and a feminist were I American I'd still vote for Trump. Yes he's an idiot ruled by his penis but that didn't stop Bill Clinton from being a good president. But on everything else I think he is broadly offering better solutions than continuity Clinton.
My main issue is simple. Their economic system is broken, allowing big corporates to asset strip offshore jobs and industry whilst wanting big tax cuts for the privilege of doing so. When your system is that broken the tried and tested solution is a big war to drive economic output, get the populace chanting USA and culling some of the poorer peons for profit. Personally I look at what the west is doing towards Russia and feel increasingly nervous. Trump is less likely to sabre rattle his way into a shooting war than Hillary Manchurian Candidate Clinton. Regardless of him being a womaniser like Clinton's husband.
£350 million for the NHS. A mendacious lie pedalled by Leaver-Corbynites like SandyRentool despite their knowing full well it was a bare face, flat lie.
They should hang their heads in shame.
Brwrecksit is coming - as Theresa May knew then as she knows now.
Brwrecksit!
I rather like that, and may use it.
All credit to ScottP for that one - not one of mine!
Who on twitter did he nick it from?
Plenty of options (tho I do think he acknowledged prior authorship):
"They’ve just voted in a referendum where they were told that £350 million a week could be saved for the NHS. Reasonably enough they are going to ask why this has not happened."
Some people voted on that basis. I didn't
You are among the overwhelming majority of Leave voters - only 15% cite it as the number one reason for voting Leave - Immigration and Sovereignty were much more important factors.
So the lie was pertinent to a mere 2.6million people then? Details...
A majority of UK adults feel the need for Britain to govern itself outweighs the economic risks of Brexit with 56% holding this opinion in comparison to the 44% who take the opposite view.
More people approve of Theresa May’s performance regarding the ongoing negotiations over Brexit than disapprove (58% total approve figure compared to 25% total disapprove figure)
Survation's last poll in the campaign had Remain 2% ahead, implying a tiny shift to Leave since then. Leave leas 52.5% to 47.5% among people who actually voted in the Referendum.
That assumes they haven't reweighed for the Referendum turnout ( which they may not have ) but it's MoE stuff anyway. The narrative on PB is that the country has moved on and all Remain voters should shut up. At least superficially those figures suggest we remain deeply split on the topic.
The narrative is also that people voted LEAVE for £350million/week for the NHS.
The polling says otherwise.
The narrative also said there was no warning about leaving the single market. Turns out that's wrong, too!
I distinctly recall a certain D. Cameron MP and G. Osborne MP making that very point - so I guess we were voting to leave the single market and the government does have a mandate to do so....
I see Justin Timberlake took a selfie of himself inside a polling station in Tennessee yesterday which is illegal in the state, however while he could have been in trouble the DA has now said they will not take action
One of Plato's (iirc) links this week was to a conspiracy theory about voting machines changing Trump votes to Clinton votes, and supporters were therefore advised to film their own voting. As you say, this is illegal in many places.
£350 million for the NHS. A mendacious lie pedalled by Leaver-Corbynites like SandyRentool despite their knowing full well it was a bare face, flat lie.
They should hang their heads in shame.
Brwrecksit is coming - as Theresa May knew then as she knows now.
Brwrecksit!
I rather like that, and may use it.
That one goes straight on the list with "Bliar", "Camoron", "Fib Dems" et al.
David Chameleon was my personal favourite. Or Harriet Harperson.
I see Justin Timberlake took a selfie of himself inside a polling station in Tennessee yesterday which is illegal in the state, however while he could have been in trouble the DA has now said they will not take action
One of Plato's (iirc) links this week was to a conspiracy theory about voting machines changing Trump votes to Clinton votes, and supporters were therefore advised to film their own voting. As you say, this is illegal in many places.
Is it illegal to film it, or to film and distribute it? I imagine it's the former.
Mr. Sandpit, not sure I'd go quite as far as a 'good chance'.
If we do have a three-way fight (Red Bull being the other team) that increases the possibilities for interesting results and complications, varying winners at different types of circuit. Reliability's also a problem for Honda.
I'd be looking at Vandoorne's potential too [similar thinking to my 16/1 Rosberg 2014 bet, which didn't come off but was very hedgeable].
As a socialist and a feminist were I American I'd still vote for Trump. Yes he's an idiot ruled by his penis but that didn't stop Bill Clinton from being a good president. But on everything else I think he is broadly offering better solutions than continuity Clinton.
My main issue is simple. Their economic system is broken, allowing big corporates to asset strip offshore jobs and industry whilst wanting big tax cuts for the privilege of doing so. When your system is that broken the tried and tested solution is a big war to drive economic output, get the populace chanting USA and culling some of the poorer peons for profit. Personally I look at what the west is doing towards Russia and feel increasingly nervous. Trump is less likely to sabre rattle his way into a shooting war than Hillary Manchurian Candidate Clinton. Regardless of him being a womaniser like Clinton's husband.
Yes.
The Bernie Sanders supporters will be an interesting electoral demographic to watch. They really don't like Hillary, a lot will sit it out but many, like Mr Pioneers, might be happy to roll the dice on Donald.
The comments from Michael Moore noted yesterday, although possibly taken out of context, are very powerful to a demographic who think they have nothing left to lose and no-one on their side.
FL - Clinton 47 .. Trump 44 - Sample 2,243 PA - Clinton 45 .. Trump 43 - Sample 1,709 NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 42 - Sample 816 OH - Clinton 40 .. Trump 46 - Sample 1,627 IA - Clinton 40 .. Trump 45 - Sample 1,038 CO - Clinton 44 .. Trump 38 - Sample 1,318
Via 538
Not terrible for Trump, PA especially. Although if FL is gone it's hopeless.
538 adjust the polls Clinton +1 and they only have a C- rating. That said the figures are in the ball park. The trend lines across most polls are clear - Trump better in Iowa and Ohio but behind in states he has to win.
OT "So Leavers should be thinking right now what they’re going to be telling the public if the NHS does go through a rough patch this winter. The NHS’s problems could rapidly become their own."
It's not an issue for Leavers as such. It's more a case that the Conservative government should be thinking right now what they're going to be telling the public as the NHS goes through what is going to more than just a seasonal rough patch. That is, the absence of funds which many key ministers in the government promised would be available for the NHS is a problem for a Conservative government implementing Brexit. A government now committed to Brexit can hardly turn around and admit that at least some significant extra funds for the NHS aren't available. Yet Brexit is going to happen so they're in a right bind.
By contrast, it's hardly a problem for the likes of Gisela Stuart, so it's wrong to present this as a problem for Leavers in general. More generally, it presents Labour with a big opportunity as the government can be portrayed as choosing not to spend extra funds on the NHS which are available to spend.
I see Justin Timberlake took a selfie of himself inside a polling station in Tennessee yesterday which is illegal in the state, however while he could have been in trouble the DA has now said they will not take action
One of Plato's (iirc) links this week was to a conspiracy theory about voting machines changing Trump votes to Clinton votes, and supporters were therefore advised to film their own voting. As you say, this is illegal in many places.
Would you like me to post video of it happening? I do love this dismissal of evidence - I linked yesterday to one Twitter user who's posted over 100 news articles citing voter fraud, I've posted video of the NYC DNC Election overseer saying there was a huge issue, Texas has reintroduced paper ballots this week after voting machine failures to select the right candidate.
Hand wave it all away - if you don't want to accept it as a live issue over there - well that's another matter.
As a socialist and a feminist were I American I'd still vote for Trump. Yes he's an idiot ruled by his penis but that didn't stop Bill Clinton from being a good president. But on everything else I think he is broadly offering better solutions than continuity Clinton.
My main issue is simple. Their economic system is broken, allowing big corporates to asset strip offshore jobs and industry whilst wanting big tax cuts for the privilege of doing so. When your system is that broken the tried and tested solution is a big war to drive economic output, get the populace chanting USA and culling some of the poorer peons for profit. Personally I look at what the west is doing towards Russia and feel increasingly nervous. Trump is less likely to sabre rattle his way into a shooting war than Hillary Manchurian Candidate Clinton. Regardless of him being a womaniser like Clinton's husband.
Yes.
The Bernie Sanders supporters will be an interesting electoral demographic to watch. They really don't like Hillary, a lot will sit it out but many, like Mr Pioneers, might be happy to roll the dice on Donald.
The comments from Michael Moore noted yesterday, although possibly taken out of context, are very powerful to a demographic who think they have nothing left to lose and no-one on their side.
Well - the polls tell us it's a Hillary cakewalk. The polls might be wrong on the day. Who knows. I suspect she'll win and we'll get four more years of the same old same old establishment corporatism, elitist deploring, healthcare costs skyrocketing, conflict with Russia and American / western paralysis in the Middle East, social justice gone loopy (especially on campus) and all the rest. The USA is an empire in the decadence and decline phase of its life. What comes next is anyone's guess - or fear.
"A total of 56 per cent of those quizzed said they were more concerned about controlling UK borders than maintaining trade benefits with other countries.
Only 44 per cent believed staying in the single market was more important....
Out of those who voted for Brexit last June, 48 per cent said their top issue was immigration, followed by 25 per cent who wanted more control over law making.
Seven per cent cited saving money and six per cent thought the EU was corrupt."
Yes, scraps from the master's table although Trump carrying OH looks value at 11/8.
I need a longshot saver somewhere to cover my long position on the WH2016 Trump victory, which, unlike the weirdo PB Morning Shift rampers who never bet, I consider to be a sure fire loser.
I feel that Clinton's lead is self limiting. People can bring themselves to vote for her if there is thought to be a real risk of the alternative which is even worse but they do so with a sense of self loathing. If she looks likely to win easily then people think that they don't have to bother and can feel clean. Conversely, if the polling gets closer they will. 5% looks about the balancing point.
depends on the poll, but a 5% lead is pretty much an early night win for Clinton anyway.
Precisely. Her only risk is that people leave the deeply unpleasant task of voting for the second worst candidate in history to someone else. No wonder she is working so hard on early voting.
On what basis do you say she's the second worst candidate in history?
She's given no reason to vote for her other than her identity.
At least Obama had healthcare.
She has lots of policy. And her favourabity has gone up a lot.
Also, i do feel RCP should take out that crappy LA times poll.
Don't worry, it's balanced out by that ABC poll.
The 538 site gives more comprehensive coverage than RCP, which misses many polls.
RCP has called every presidential election right so far, Nate Silver's recent record in other elections is not perfect
Regardless of whether your relative confidence in RCP is right or wrong, my point was that the 538 site is reporting much more polling than RCP and updating its reporting more quickly. So if you want to keep track of polls in near real time as they come in, 538 is the place to look.
But the problem is if you suggest "closing a&e" people start screaming before they even think about whether it's the right thing to do to improve patient care
That is true of literally any proposed change to the NHS.
Was the plan not to do the sort of triage Charles describes over the phone (111) or online (NHS Direct)? Then you go buy the plaster or painkillers from the chemist yourself.
Doesn't work. 24 hour GPs would be a good triage location.
But hard to see it would be cost effective to almost treble the opening hours of tons of GP practices.
Because a&e is very expensive and inadequate. This is about maximising capacity and patient care.
Aside from the complex cost/benefit analysis, I guess the risk would be that 24/7 GPs might drive up demand coming in the front end but do little to reduce the stream coming in through the hospital door.
Too many people go to hospitals at the moment when they don't need to do so. But opening gps is only part of the solution - you need more primary and out patient care and fewer nights in an expensive highly specced facility
We need to keep an eye on the accountants. It is all very well saying people don't need to sleep in big, expensive buildings, but even if we send all the patients to the Savoy Hotel each night, the hospital will still be there and you'll just be averaging its fixed costs over fewer hours.
We have waiting lists because of capacity constraints. This is about freeing up expensive capacity to deal with the priorities (and using cheaper solutions for other needs).
I feel that Clinton's lead is self limiting. People can bring themselves to vote for her if there is thought to be a real risk of the alternative which is even worse but they do so with a sense of self loathing. If she looks likely to win easily then people think that they don't have to bother and can feel clean. Conversely, if the polling gets closer they will. 5% looks about the balancing point.
depends on the poll, but a 5% lead is pretty much an early night win for Clinton anyway.
Since 1948 a majority of presidential elections have been won by more than 5% so the 5% average lead Hillary now has with RCP is not massive, especially with differential turnout and a rise in white working class voters
id be interested in your evidence of rise in WWC voters. There is more quantifiable evidence of a eise in hispanic voters.
There is no evidence of a spike in WWC. @HYUFD believes they'll turn up on the day. Although my question is why are Hispanic WC turning out in early voting but WWC not.
Further if there is a spike in WWC for Trump it's worth about 1.5 points across all states. A spike in Hispanic turnout is worth more as they are clustered in many battleground states. And let's not forget those nasty women voters.
But the problem is if you suggest "closing a&e" people start screaming before they even think about whether it's the right thing to do to improve patient care
That is true of literally any proposed change to the NHS.
Was the plan not to do the sort of triage Charles describes over the phone (111) or online (NHS Direct)? Then you go buy the plaster or painkillers from the chemist yourself.
Doesn't work. 24 hour GPs would be a good triage location.
But hard to see it would be cost effective to almost treble the opening hours of tons of GP practices.
Because a&e is very expensive and inadequate. This is about maximising capacity and patient care.
Aside from the complex cost/benefit analysis, I guess the risk would be that 24/7 GPs might drive up demand coming in the front end but do little to reduce the stream coming in through the hospital door.
Just as congestion is the ultimate check on rising traffic, the hassle and wait for a GP appointment is one of the things that deters people bothering them with the more trivial niggles.
So they go to a&e instead and clog up expensive facilities
As a socialist and a feminist were I American I'd still vote for Trump. Yes he's an idiot ruled by his penis but that didn't stop Bill Clinton from being a good president. But on everything else I think he is broadly offering better solutions than continuity Clinton.
My main issue is simple. Their economic system is broken, allowing big corporates to asset strip offshore jobs and industry whilst wanting big tax cuts for the privilege of doing so. When your system is that broken the tried and tested solution is a big war to drive economic output, get the populace chanting USA and culling some of the poorer peons for profit. Personally I look at what the west is doing towards Russia and feel increasingly nervous. Trump is less likely to sabre rattle his way into a shooting war than Hillary Manchurian Candidate Clinton. Regardless of him being a womaniser like Clinton's husband.
Yes.
The Bernie Sanders supporters will be an interesting electoral demographic to watch. They really don't like Hillary, a lot will sit it out but many, like Mr Pioneers, might be happy to roll the dice on Donald.
The comments from Michael Moore noted yesterday, although possibly taken out of context, are very powerful to a demographic who think they have nothing left to lose and no-one on their side.
Rochdale Pioneers is an oddball. One of a weirdo PB nativist Corbynite-Leaver-Trumper troop who is denial of globalisation and thinks that making bare face lies about the NHS to the salt of the earth left-nationalists he purports to represent is acceptable.
Yes, scraps from the master's table although Trump carrying OH looks value at 11/8.
I need a longshot saver somewhere to cover my long position on the WH2016 Trump victory, which, unlike the weirdo PB Morning Shift rampers who never bet, I consider to be a sure fire loser.
Should have got on McMullin Utah when iy was screaming value and the wise of PB were poo pooing it.
For those not paying attention that was not entirely serious smug sacrasm.
£350 million for the NHS. A mendacious lie pedalled by Leaver-Corbynites like SandyRentool despite their knowing full well it was a bare face, flat lie.
They should hang their heads in shame.
Brwrecksit is coming - as Theresa May knew then as she knows now.
Brwrecksit!
I rather like that, and may use it.
That one goes straight on the list with "Bliar", "Camoron", "Fib Dems" et al.
David Chameleon was my personal favourite. Or Harriet Harperson.
Comments
Also, i do feel RCP should take out that crappy LA times poll.
Just as congestion is the ultimate check on rising traffic, the hassle and wait for a GP appointment is one of the things that deters people bothering them with the more trivial niggles.
Interesting thread Mr Meeks. – Brexit sounds like the perfect catalyst to grab the NHS by the scruff of the neck and drag it into the 21st century where it might be fit for purpose..
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2016/10/donald-trump-has-won-even-if-he-loses-us-election
"Weird Al" Yancovic vs Donald and Hillary.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FdBF6h7oH5I
I think not.
Luxury.
http://metro.co.uk/2016/10/26/for-this-week-only-londoners-can-catch-a-unicorn-cab-to-work-6214840/?ito=twitter
I'm sure the government will take a hit if that happens, even with Corbyn leading labour. On the NHS, we've proven we only want platitudes, and he can do that while past performance is the government ideas won't work or they'll be too scared to try what will work.
I'm told by people who work with both that the NHS is far worse run than Whitehall. Everyone always says they will improve that yet it never improves, so either it's impossible or we'll have to hope when a real crisis, not the annual 'crisis', occurs that the ideas and will to fix it will happen.
I'm not optimistic. I'll put that in a pile with 'probably have to work until I die' as a problem I'll just have to live with.
A majority of UK adults feel the need for Britain to govern itself outweighs the economic risks of Brexit with 56% holding this opinion in comparison to the 44% who take the opposite view.
More people approve of Theresa May’s performance regarding the ongoing negotiations over Brexit than disapprove (58% total approve figure compared to 25% total disapprove figure)
http://survation.com/uk-still-vote-leave-eu-albeit-narrowly/
He needs to do a Hague. 7 days to save your jobs. Your town. Your future. Didn't work for Hague. Probably won't work for Trump. But I remain convinced that shy Trumpers are missing from the polls and that Clinton is at best the least worst choice, hardly a motivation to actually vote
Voted Leave - most important reason: 15%
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Final-Brexit-Tables-101016JMDLL-1c0d0h2.pdf
So no, Leave voters weren't in it for the NHS.....
I'm the sort of guardian reading liberal that things the proposed reorganisation largely makes sense. I'm also the sort of Traitorous Remoaner who now supports ramming it through Friday accelerationist purposes. But all singing, all dancing DGH's catering to healthcare needs of 30 years ago are a big part of the identity many Leave voters thought they were defending on 23rd June. These voters have been mobilised now and told all their greviences are valid. It's a new world.
* Actually the cuts are small but the reorganisation is massive and any change in the NHS is a cut of course.
** Actually the vast bulk of the local NHS is unaffected but Hospitals = the NHS in the public mind.
They should hang their heads in shame.
Brwrecksit is coming - as Theresa May knew then as she knows now.
So... there's 24 hours to save the NHS?
"They’ve just voted in a referendum where they were told that £350 million a week could be saved for the NHS. Reasonably enough they are going to ask why this has not happened."
Some people voted on that basis. I didn't. And expecting savings from the EU to be spent on the NHS when we're still in the EU betrays an ignorance of the most basic principles of the fourth dimension.
It's almost as if some on the left want to weaponise the NHS for political gain. Gosh.
[There is a genuine issue of funding the NHS, particularly given the ageing population and so forth. However, raising it in this immediately makes it look like a political football].
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37769485
Hope Brawn returns.
Can't help thinking you're presenting a false dichotomy there.
I would think that the sets of those variously appalled overlap fairly comprehensively.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/rich-noyes/2016/10/25/mrc-study-documenting-tvs-twelve-weeks-trump-bashing
I rather like that, and may use it.
Also, a certain Adrian Newey was seen hanging around Red Bull in Austin, rumours he will be back with the F1 team next year, after some time out with the RB Americas Cup boat race team.
Actually fulfilling the pledge would be the least of his problems if he actually won the election, so no downside
http://static.politico.com/8a/b1/6632d7e147899c4489dd14a84e17/161024-states-statewidetrack.pdf
My main issue is simple. Their economic system is broken, allowing big corporates to asset strip offshore jobs and industry whilst wanting big tax cuts for the privilege of doing so. When your system is that broken the tried and tested solution is a big war to drive economic output, get the populace chanting USA and culling some of the poorer peons for profit. Personally I look at what the west is doing towards Russia and feel increasingly nervous. Trump is less likely to sabre rattle his way into a shooting war than Hillary Manchurian Candidate Clinton. Regardless of him being a womaniser like Clinton's husband.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/
OA, Leave Voters (Remain Voters)
Approve: 58 70 (52)
Disapprove: 25 15 (34)
Don't Know: 17 15 (14)
Expect Red Bull and McLaren to move forward with their superior aero teams, and don't be surprised to see Ferrari scrapping with Williams for fourth place among the constructors.
It's a balanced judgement they need to make. While I was a leaver who doesn't care about immigration, even a lot of reminers do, and most leavers do, so choosing to focus on it makes sense. They need to similarly judge how much they can or should do on the NHS promises. It's just awkward that some aspects will be treated as sacrosanct and others not, when in fact none were. Some are just more appropriate, in one way or another.
The polling says otherwise.
Mr. Sandpit (2), on F1, I actually wrote something a bit similar in the comments here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/united-states-post-race-analysis-2016.html
"McLaren's got good aero thanks to Prodromou[sp] and if Honda can sort out the engine next year (big if) I can see them beating Ferrari and potentially challenging for the title. Odds against, of course, but a credible possibility."
Engine's still matter a lot. If the gap's closed, Mercedes' reliability might become a critical factor.
christ.
Yes, there's a good chance we'll see Alonso challenging for the title next year, but Hamilton will likely still go off as favourite.
If the much talked about Bahrain tyre test goes ahead, I might head along for a couple of days and see what's happening. Will report back!
https://twitter.com/hashtag/bwrecksit
FL - Clinton 47 .. Trump 44 - Sample 2,243
PA - Clinton 45 .. Trump 43 - Sample 1,709
NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 42 - Sample 816
OH - Clinton 40 .. Trump 46 - Sample 1,627
IA - Clinton 40 .. Trump 45 - Sample 1,038
CO - Clinton 44 .. Trump 38 - Sample 1,318
Via 538
There are so many golden greats!
If we do have a three-way fight (Red Bull being the other team) that increases the possibilities for interesting results and complications, varying winners at different types of circuit. Reliability's also a problem for Honda.
I'd be looking at Vandoorne's potential too [similar thinking to my 16/1 Rosberg 2014 bet, which didn't come off but was very hedgeable].
The comments from Michael Moore noted yesterday, although possibly taken out of context, are very powerful to a demographic who think they have nothing left to lose and no-one on their side.
It's not an issue for Leavers as such. It's more a case that the Conservative government should be thinking right now what they're going to be telling the public as the NHS goes through what is going to more than just a seasonal rough patch. That is, the absence of funds which many key ministers in the government promised would be available for the NHS is a problem for a Conservative government implementing Brexit. A government now committed to Brexit can hardly turn around and admit that at least some significant extra funds for the NHS aren't available. Yet Brexit is going to happen so they're in a right bind.
By contrast, it's hardly a problem for the likes of Gisela Stuart, so it's wrong to present this as a problem for Leavers in general. More generally, it presents Labour with a big opportunity as the government can be portrayed as choosing not to spend extra funds on the NHS which are available to spend.
Hand wave it all away - if you don't want to accept it as a live issue over there - well that's another matter.
"A total of 56 per cent of those quizzed said they were more concerned about controlling UK borders than maintaining trade benefits with other countries.
Only 44 per cent believed staying in the single market was more important....
Out of those who voted for Brexit last June, 48 per cent said their top issue was immigration, followed by 25 per cent who wanted more control over law making.
Seven per cent cited saving money and six per cent thought the EU was corrupt."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3872954/We-care-migration-single-market-says-Brexit-poll-suggests-Theresa-backing-Great-British-public.html
http://brexitcentral.com/names-frame-brexit-select-committee/
Yes, scraps from the master's table although Trump carrying OH looks value at 11/8.
I need a longshot saver somewhere to cover my long position on the WH2016 Trump victory, which, unlike the weirdo PB Morning Shift rampers who never bet, I consider to be a sure fire loser.
Further if there is a spike in WWC for Trump it's worth about 1.5 points across all states. A spike in Hispanic turnout is worth more as they are clustered in many battleground states. And let's not forget those nasty women voters.
For those not paying attention that was not entirely serious smug sacrasm.