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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Situation critical. How the NHS could affect the path of Brexi

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  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On Heathrow, even though I'm in favour in theory, why does it need to cut across the M25 - surely building it slightly eastward would have been the better option ?

    Cutting over the M25 looks lik an error to me, even if more cash for CPO compo was needed better that than the M25 misery it will create for eons.

    Noisier for London if you move it East.
    And the issue with that?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    The real significance of this story:

    http://labourlist.org/2016/10/exclusive-labour-mps-call-on-party-to-drop-out-of-goldsmith-by-election/

    is that at least some Labour MPs are ready to allow the Lib Dems off the naughty step.

    It'll save them £1000 also.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    scotslass said:

    The problem is many people are asking what is the point of the New Statesman!

    Their campaign against Corbyn has collapsed, their uber unionism gives them a similar profile to the Daily Telegraph in Scotland and their understanding of the constitutional question is roughly the same as the Prime Minister's advisers.

    If BREXIT logic is that countries do not discriminate against other countries with whom they have a trade surplus then why does that not apply to Scotland which is England's fourth largest marketplace.

    If the Government claims that they can have an soft border between two parts of Ireland then why would Scots believe they would erect a hard border between England and Scotland.

    Do you think Nicola will have a referendum before 2020 and do you think "Leave" the Uk will win ?
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,883
    timmo said:

    Why is it so quiet on here this morning about the Richmond byelection.
    Its certainly not quiet in the bookies whete Zac is attracting a lot of support.
    Evens on him gone now..

    As I said on here yesterday, I think the LDs have a big ask to beat Zac without an official Conservative candidate acting as a spoiler.

    It's clear a number of Conservatives (irrespective of whether they agree with Zac or not) will go and help him to prevent an LD win and that's politics. Zac of course can't rely on past records or the other trappings of an official candidate and has to effectively start from scratch but I suspect given "donations" and "volunteers" that won't be such a big ask.

    I can see from his perspective why he wants the by- election to be a referendum on LHR3. I suspect other subjects will come into the mix which may not be as favourable for him.

  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    edited October 2016

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    Here's the conclusion (punctuation included):

    Whatever other drawbacks, hard Brexit brings it is the most sensible position to take if your number one priority is keeping Scotland in the UK.

    Hard brexit is the patriotic (not the nationalistic) policy.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    scotslass said:

    The problem is many people are asking what is the point of the New Statesman!

    Their campaign against Corbyn has collapsed, their uber unionism gives them a similar profile to the Daily Telegraph in Scotland and their understanding of the constitutional question is roughly the same as the Prime Minister's advisers.

    If BREXIT logic is that countries do not discriminate against other countries with whom they have a trade surplus then why does that not apply to Scotland which is England's fourth largest marketplace.

    If the Government claims that they can have an soft border between two parts of Ireland then why would Scots believe they would erect a hard border between England and Scotland.

    Tell me again why you want to prioritise 15% of your trade over 60%?

    250,000 jobs over 1,000,000?

    Paying money into a Union vs getting money out of it?

    I'm sure you've got good reasons......
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    glw said:

    On the NHS, I've spent too much time with relatives in A&E, visiting wards, and attending clinics over the last few years, but it has been an eye opener.

    I'm not convinced that funding is truly an issue. I have seen three issues crop up again and again that need to be dealt with first.

    1. Wastage; wasted time, wasted medication, and wasted equipment.

    2. Paper shuffling, the NHS may have digitised some aspects of their work, but far too much time seems to be sent moving bits of paper around. You can sit in A&E and watch doctors and nurses go back and forth carrying paper between places.

    3. Poor communications, scheduling, and logistics. Nobody in hospitals ever seems to know where people are, what they should be doing, what the level of stock for certain things is. Nor are they ever able to give you a straight answer about where you currently stand on something, invariably they seem to be waiting to hear back from someone.


    I know it's an entirely different thing but it amazes me how much information Amazon can provide about an order for a few pounds worth of Chinese tat, you can track what is happening, and get notifications immediately if anything changes. The flow of information through that business is astounding, and customers are always in the loop, and it's all automated.

    The NHS on the other hand seems to operate much like a business in the 1970s, you get an "allow 28 days for delivery" vibe when dealing with it. It simply doesn't feel like a modern organisation. It operates in a way that simply wouldn't be considerable acceptable if it was a private business.

    Throwing more money at the NHS doesn't sound like a solution to me if it is allowed to carry on as it is.

    More like 1870's , you go see them go past constantly with trolleys full of folders, some of them nearly 2 feet thick
  • Options

    The real significance of this story:

    http://labourlist.org/2016/10/exclusive-labour-mps-call-on-party-to-drop-out-of-goldsmith-by-election/

    is that at least some Labour MPs are ready to allow the Lib Dems off the naughty step.

    Well at least by doing so, it would save them the humiliation of almost certainly losing two-thirds of the share of the vote they secured in last year's GE, all the more so as a result of the Tories deciding not to stand.
    SkyBet's odds of 200/1 against Labour winning in Richmond really tells you all you need to know about their chances in this by-election.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    edited October 2016

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    You unionists will use any old scaremongering rubbish to keep Scotland under your jackboot. Absolute bollocks. Up there with £350M a week for NHS
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited October 2016
    @arlottaVance


    'A majority of UK adults feel the need for Britain to govern itself outweighs the economic risks of Brexit with 56% holding this opinion in comparison to the 44% who take the opposite view.

    More people approve of Theresa May’s performance regarding the ongoing negotiations over Brexit than disapprove (58% total approve figure compared to 25% total disapprove figure)'


    Are you sure both sets of figures are not the wrong way round,surely the likes of Meeks can't be in a minority on both issues ?
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    malcolmg said:

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    You unionists will use any old scaremongering rubbish to keep Scotland under your jackboot. Absolute bollocks. Up there with £350M a week for NHS
    No Malcolm. Hard brexit paints ScotNats into the corner. So Nicola has to support soft brexit to keep the flame alive.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,296
    malcolmg said:

    glw said:

    On the NHS, I've spent too much time with relatives in A&E, visiting wards, and attending clinics over the last few years, but it has been an eye opener.

    I'm not convinced that funding is truly an issue. I have seen three issues crop up again and again that need to be dealt with first.

    1. Wastage; wasted time, wasted medication, and wasted equipment.

    2. Paper shuffling, the NHS may have digitised some aspects of their work, but far too much time seems to be sent moving bits of paper around. You can sit in A&E and watch doctors and nurses go back and forth carrying paper between places.

    3. Poor communications, scheduling, and logistics. Nobody in hospitals ever seems to know where people are, what they should be doing, what the level of stock for certain things is. Nor are they ever able to give you a straight answer about where you currently stand on something, invariably they seem to be waiting to hear back from someone.


    I know it's an entirely different thing but it amazes me how much information Amazon can provide about an order for a few pounds worth of Chinese tat, you can track what is happening, and get notifications immediately if anything changes. The flow of information through that business is astounding, and customers are always in the loop, and it's all automated.

    The NHS on the other hand seems to operate much like a business in the 1970s, you get an "allow 28 days for delivery" vibe when dealing with it. It simply doesn't feel like a modern organisation. It operates in a way that simply wouldn't be considerable acceptable if it was a private business.

    Throwing more money at the NHS doesn't sound like a solution to me if it is allowed to carry on as it is.

    More like 1870's , you go see them go past constantly with trolleys full of folders, some of them nearly 2 feet thick
    The issue is digitalization. The trouble is the NHS tried this a few years back with a monumental IT project, and it failed, iirc, wasting untold billions. Nobody seems to know how to crack this problem.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    edited October 2016
    malcolmg said:

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    You unionists will use any old scaremongering rubbish to keep Scotland under your jackboot. Absolute bollocks. Up there with £350M a week for NHS
    So Nicola KEEP US IN THE SINGLE MARKET OR THE WORLD WILL END is talking 'Absolute bollocks' too?

    You can't have it both ways - if membership of 'the single market' is of critical importance - which do you choose?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359
    tlg86 said:

    stodge said:

    To channel my inner Thatcherite (which doesn't get much of an airing), we are all responsible for our own health and given the confirmed links between lifestyle and a number of illnesses, there are some salutary lessons about how we live, work, eat, sleep etc, etc.

    Very true. I wonder, has there been any research on how people view the importance of the NHS relative to their own lifestyles? On the one hand, I'd have thought those that think the NHS is really important ought to take good care of themselves - healthy diet, lots of exercise, etc. But I actually suspect people want a well funded NHS so that they feel free to live as they wish.
    Sorry to be rude, but that's a daft comment. No matter how much you take care of yourself, you're going to need good health care sooner or later, and not worrying about having to pay through the nose for it when it happens (often out of the blue) is a near-universal preference.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,552
    edited October 2016

    I wouldn't disagree with much of that, though large public sector IT projects are famously expensive disasters.

    It is not going to happen overnight though, and older CDE Leave votrs are the most reliant of us all on the NHS. Screw it up for them and don't expect any thanks at the ballot box.

    I wasn't making a Leave or Remain point, I've been thinking the NHS operates poorly for quite a while now, nor am I advocating large top-down IT projects.

    Mostly I think it's about the ethos of the organisation; communicating clearly and efficiently, cutting down on waste, embracing change (for the better), learning from organisations outside of health care, and taking the delivery of services more seriously. I don't think there's a "big bang" fix, but hundreds or probably thousands of smaller changes, a lot of them will be IT driven, but then that's true for a lot of things today.

    I think a large part of the problem is that all too often people, and politicians in particular, measure healthcare in terms of hospital, beds, doctors and nurses, and operations. In a sense those things are a sign that healthcare has failed. We ought to see healthcare as an integral part of day to day life, and measure it in terms of wellbeing, with an emphasis on prevention, and seeing the quality of the service as important, if not as important as the medical outcomes.

    Anyway I don't have the solution, but I'm certain that money alone won't make the NHS fit for the 21st century, it needs to change.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited October 2016

    The real significance of this story:
    http://labourlist.org/2016/10/exclusive-labour-mps-call-on-party-to-drop-out-of-goldsmith-by-election/
    is that at least some Labour MPs are ready to allow the Lib Dems off the naughty step.

    If Labour helps nurture an improvement in the LDs they will also increase the chances of the LDs gaining defections of Labour MPs.
    A tacit alliance between Labour and LDs is what won the 97 election, as much as any New Labour reforms. I have pointed out on here many times how when one of these 2 parties gains seats the other does too, and the same goes for losses.

    It does look as if a few Labourites are beginning to think how they might regain power.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,296
    stodge said:

    timmo said:

    Why is it so quiet on here this morning about the Richmond byelection.
    Its certainly not quiet in the bookies whete Zac is attracting a lot of support.
    Evens on him gone now..

    As I said on here yesterday, I think the LDs have a big ask to beat Zac without an official Conservative candidate acting as a spoiler.

    It's clear a number of Conservatives (irrespective of whether they agree with Zac or not) will go and help him to prevent an LD win and that's politics. Zac of course can't rely on past records or the other trappings of an official candidate and has to effectively start from scratch but I suspect given "donations" and "volunteers" that won't be such a big ask.

    I can see from his perspective why he wants the by- election to be a referendum on LHR3. I suspect other subjects will come into the mix which may not be as favourable for him.

    I have a few quid on Zac, at 1.83. I think LibDems will throw the entire machine at it, but Zac appears to have a personal following as well as the LHR3 issue. LibDems will try to make a referendum on Brexit. Might work to a certain extent, but isn't LHR3 more likely to resonate on the doorsteps?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    The real significance of this story:
    http://labourlist.org/2016/10/exclusive-labour-mps-call-on-party-to-drop-out-of-goldsmith-by-election/
    is that at least some Labour MPs are ready to allow the Lib Dems off the naughty step.

    If Labour helps nurture an improvement in the LDs they will also increase the chances of the LDs gaining defections of Labour MPs.
    A tacit alliance between Labour and LDs is what won the 97 election, as much as any New Labour reforms. I have pointed out on here many times how when one of these 2 parties gains seats the other does too, and the same goes for losses.

    It does look as if a few Labourites are beginning to think how they might regain power.
    They'll have to regain power of the Labour party first ^_~
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    tlg86 said:

    stodge said:

    To channel my inner Thatcherite (which doesn't get much of an airing), we are all responsible for our own health and given the confirmed links between lifestyle and a number of illnesses, there are some salutary lessons about how we live, work, eat, sleep etc, etc.

    Very true. I wonder, has there been any research on how people view the importance of the NHS relative to their own lifestyles? On the one hand, I'd have thought those that think the NHS is really important ought to take good care of themselves - healthy diet, lots of exercise, etc. But I actually suspect people want a well funded NHS so that they feel free to live as they wish.
    Sorry to be rude, but that's a daft comment. No matter how much you take care of yourself, you're going to need good health care sooner or later, and not worrying about having to pay through the nose for it when it happens (often out of the blue) is a near-universal preference.
    It certainly needs alot of reform too, mind.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    scotslass said:

    The problem is many people are asking what is the point of the New Statesman!

    Their campaign against Corbyn has collapsed, their uber unionism gives them a similar profile to the Daily Telegraph in Scotland and their understanding of the constitutional question is roughly the same as the Prime Minister's advisers.

    If BREXIT logic is that countries do not discriminate against other countries with whom they have a trade surplus then why does that not apply to Scotland which is England's fourth largest marketplace.

    If the Government claims that they can have an soft border between two parts of Ireland then why would Scots believe they would erect a hard border between England and Scotland.

    Tell me again why you want to prioritise 15% of your trade over 60%?

    250,000 jobs over 1,000,000?

    Paying money into a Union vs getting money out of it?

    I'm sure you've got good reasons......
    another load of bollox propaganda mince. WE get nothing but debt from the union.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    stodge said:

    timmo said:

    Why is it so quiet on here this morning about the Richmond byelection.
    Its certainly not quiet in the bookies whete Zac is attracting a lot of support.
    Evens on him gone now..

    As I said on here yesterday, I think the LDs have a big ask to beat Zac without an official Conservative candidate acting as a spoiler.

    It's clear a number of Conservatives (irrespective of whether they agree with Zac or not) will go and help him to prevent an LD win and that's politics. Zac of course can't rely on past records or the other trappings of an official candidate and has to effectively start from scratch but I suspect given "donations" and "volunteers" that won't be such a big ask.

    I can see from his perspective why he wants the by- election to be a referendum on LHR3. I suspect other subjects will come into the mix which may not be as favourable for him.

    I have a few quid on Zac, at 1.83. I think LibDems will throw the entire machine at it, but Zac appears to have a personal following as well as the LHR3 issue. LibDems will try to make a referendum on Brexit. Might work to a certain extent, but isn't LHR3 more likely to resonate on the doorsteps?
    Both Zac and the Lib Dems are opposed to LHR3 so I can't see how that is the major issue of the campaign.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    malcolmg said:

    glw said:

    On the NHS, I've spent too much time with relatives in A&E, visiting wards, and attending clinics over the last few years, but it has been an eye opener.

    I'm not convinced that funding is truly an issue. I have seen three issues crop up again and again that need to be dealt with first.

    1. Wastage; wasted time, wasted medication, and wasted equipment.

    2. Paper shuffling, the NHS may have digitised some aspects of their work, but far too much time seems to be sent moving bits of paper around. You can sit in A&E and watch doctors and nurses go back and forth carrying paper between places.

    3. Poor communications, scheduling, and logistics. Nobody in hospitals ever seems to know where people are, what they should be doing, what the level of stock for certain things is. Nor are they ever able to give you a straight answer about where you currently stand on something, invariably they seem to be waiting to hear back from someone.


    I know it's an entirely different thing but it amazes me how much information Amazon can provide about an order for a few pounds worth of Chinese tat, you can track what is happening, and get notifications immediately if anything changes. The flow of information through that business is astounding, and customers are always in the loop, and it's all automated.

    The NHS on the other hand seems to operate much like a business in the 1970s, you get an "allow 28 days for delivery" vibe when dealing with it. It simply doesn't feel like a modern organisation. It operates in a way that simply wouldn't be considerable acceptable if it was a private business.

    Throwing more money at the NHS doesn't sound like a solution to me if it is allowed to carry on as it is.

    More like 1870's , you go see them go past constantly with trolleys full of folders, some of them nearly 2 feet thick
    The issue is digitalization. The trouble is the NHS tried this a few years back with a monumental IT project, and it failed, iirc, wasting untold billions. Nobody seems to know how to crack this problem.

    Any one of a number of skilled people could crack this problem.

    But they would have to have free rein to make necessary changes, and not be stopped by premature political interventions.

    The IT / Admin side is not the problem.

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    geoffw said:

    malcolmg said:

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    You unionists will use any old scaremongering rubbish to keep Scotland under your jackboot. Absolute bollocks. Up there with £350M a week for NHS
    No Malcolm. Hard brexit paints ScotNats into the corner. So Nicola has to support soft brexit to keep the flame alive.
    geoff we either have 1% of power and get done over by Westminster regularly or have a lot of power and get done over now and again by EU, for me it is a very easy choice.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,965

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    It's never going to turn on questions of economics, no matter how obvious they may or not be. If enough people are willing to (or think they are willing to) pay the price, added to those who don't think there will be any price no matter evidence saying otherwise, they will win. It's a much harder sell than Brexit was, and yet it still got 45% last time, only a few more need to be angry enough to win it.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    malcolmg said:

    glw said:

    On the NHS, I've spent too much time with relatives in A&E, visiting wards, and attending clinics over the last few years, but it has been an eye opener.

    I'm not convinced that funding is truly an issue. I have seen three issues crop up again and again that need to be dealt with first.

    1. Wastage; wasted time, wasted medication, and wasted equipment.

    2. Paper shuffling, the NHS may have digitised some aspects of their work, but far too much time seems to be sent moving bits of paper around. You can sit in A&E and watch doctors and nurses go back and forth carrying paper between places.

    3. Poor communications, scheduling, and logistics. Nobody in hospitals ever seems to know where people are, what they should be doing, what the level of stock for certain things is. Nor are they ever able to give you a straight answer about where you currently stand on something, invariably they seem to be waiting to hear back from someone.


    I know it's an entirely different thing but it amazes me how much information Amazon can provide about an order for a few pounds worth of Chinese tat, you can track what is happening, and get notifications immediately if anything changes. The flow of information through that business is astounding, and customers are always in the loop, and it's all automated.

    The NHS on the other hand seems to operate much like a business in the 1970s, you get an "allow 28 days for delivery" vibe when dealing with it. It simply doesn't feel like a modern organisation. It operates in a way that simply wouldn't be considerable acceptable if it was a private business.

    Throwing more money at the NHS doesn't sound like a solution to me if it is allowed to carry on as it is.

    More like 1870's , you go see them go past constantly with trolleys full of folders, some of them nearly 2 feet thick
    The issue is digitalization. The trouble is the NHS tried this a few years back with a monumental IT project, and it failed, iirc, wasting untold billions. Nobody seems to know how to crack this problem.
    That was down to signing garbage contracts and getting fleeced, bet plenty of MP's got good jobs out of that. As said Amazon can handle very simply it just takes some organisation and a company that is up to the job. Even if they only start doing it for future appointments/notes etc.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,965

    tlg86 said:

    stodge said:

    To channel my inner Thatcherite (which doesn't get much of an airing), we are all responsible for our own health and given the confirmed links between lifestyle and a number of illnesses, there are some salutary lessons about how we live, work, eat, sleep etc, etc.

    Very true. I wonder, has there been any research on how people view the importance of the NHS relative to their own lifestyles? On the one hand, I'd have thought those that think the NHS is really important ought to take good care of themselves - healthy diet, lots of exercise, etc. But I actually suspect people want a well funded NHS so that they feel free to live as they wish.
    Sorry to be rude, but that's a daft comment. No matter how much you take care of yourself, you're going to need good health care sooner or later, and not worrying about having to pay through the nose for it when it happens (often out of the blue) is a near-universal preference.
    That was rude?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    malcolmg said:

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    You unionists will use any old scaremongering rubbish to keep Scotland under your jackboot. Absolute bollocks. Up there with £350M a week for NHS
    So Nicola KEEP US IN THE SINGLE MARKET OR THE WORLD WILL END is talking 'Absolute bollocks' too?

    You can't have it both ways - if membership of 'the single market' is of critical importance - which do you choose?
    You know well which I would choose, out of UK every time.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,965
    malcolmg said:

    scotslass said:

    The problem is many people are asking what is the point of the New Statesman!

    Their campaign against Corbyn has collapsed, their uber unionism gives them a similar profile to the Daily Telegraph in Scotland and their understanding of the constitutional question is roughly the same as the Prime Minister's advisers.

    If BREXIT logic is that countries do not discriminate against other countries with whom they have a trade surplus then why does that not apply to Scotland which is England's fourth largest marketplace.

    If the Government claims that they can have an soft border between two parts of Ireland then why would Scots believe they would erect a hard border between England and Scotland.

    Tell me again why you want to prioritise 15% of your trade over 60%?

    250,000 jobs over 1,000,000?

    Paying money into a Union vs getting money out of it?

    I'm sure you've got good reasons......
    another load of bollox propaganda mince. WE get nothing but debt from the union.
    Well we used to get a shared sense of combined nationality, but I accept it seems fewer and fewer feel that way.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,197

    tlg86 said:

    stodge said:

    To channel my inner Thatcherite (which doesn't get much of an airing), we are all responsible for our own health and given the confirmed links between lifestyle and a number of illnesses, there are some salutary lessons about how we live, work, eat, sleep etc, etc.

    Very true. I wonder, has there been any research on how people view the importance of the NHS relative to their own lifestyles? On the one hand, I'd have thought those that think the NHS is really important ought to take good care of themselves - healthy diet, lots of exercise, etc. But I actually suspect people want a well funded NHS so that they feel free to live as they wish.
    Sorry to be rude, but that's a daft comment. No matter how much you take care of yourself, you're going to need good health care sooner or later, and not worrying about having to pay through the nose for it when it happens (often out of the blue) is a near-universal preference.
    Well in that case we should stop wasting money on stop smoking campaigns and not worry about healthy eating information on food labelling. Clearly we will all get ill eventually so we might as well encourage people to get on with it. As Sir Humphrey once said, if the people who died from smoking related diseases lived to a ripe old age, they'd cost the country more in social security and pensions.
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited October 2016
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    You unionists will use any old scaremongering rubbish to keep Scotland under your jackboot. Absolute bollocks. Up there with £350M a week for NHS
    So Nicola KEEP US IN THE SINGLE MARKET OR THE WORLD WILL END is talking 'Absolute bollocks' too?

    You can't have it both ways - if membership of 'the single market' is of critical importance - which do you choose?
    You know well which I would choose, out of UK every time.
    What's keeping you ? Go to Bavaria as you pledged. Walk your talk big man.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Britons saw their real weekly earnings go up by nearly 2% last year in the biggest increase since the financial crisis, as low inflation and the introduction of the “national living wage” boosted take-home pay.

    The official figures also showed that the gender pay gap had shrunk to the lowest level in nearly two decades


    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/oct/26/weekly-uk-earnings-rose-2015-biggest-increase-since-financial-crash
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are more white working class voters than Hispanics in Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania and North Carolina and in Florida some Hispanics are Cuban and lean Trump
    If Trump wins all those states he wins the presidency

    Not quite true ... In the hugely unlikely event of Trump running your table but loses Arizona then Clinton wins 270/268. And then there's Utah ...

    You seem to only believe there will be spike in WWC. What about those Trump friendly demographics of women, college educated whites and Hispanics. Do WWC outweigh them all ?!?

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/nJWrd
    Playing around with turnout models on 538 suggests one of the only realistic ways Trump can win is if uni educated Whites vote for Trump instead of Clinton. They might be lying to the polls who knows, I doubt it though.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    You unionists will use any old scaremongering rubbish to keep Scotland under your jackboot. Absolute bollocks. Up there with £350M a week for NHS
    So Nicola KEEP US IN THE SINGLE MARKET OR THE WORLD WILL END is talking 'Absolute bollocks' too?

    You can't have it both ways - if membership of 'the single market' is of critical importance - which do you choose?
    You know well which I would choose, out of UK every time.
    You at least have the virtue of consistency - wee Mrs McTurnip on the other hand makes Boris' cake eating schemes seem circumspect by comparison.....
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Paul Waugh making some interesting observations......Zac won't have access to the Conservative database in his constituency, as he's not standing as a Conservative.....the Lib Dems on the other hand......
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 46

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420

    tlg86 said:

    stodge said:

    To channel my inner Thatcherite (which doesn't get much of an airing), we are all responsible for our own health and given the confirmed links between lifestyle and a number of illnesses, there are some salutary lessons about how we live, work, eat, sleep etc, etc.

    Very true. I wonder, has there been any research on how people view the importance of the NHS relative to their own lifestyles? On the one hand, I'd have thought those that think the NHS is really important ought to take good care of themselves - healthy diet, lots of exercise, etc. But I actually suspect people want a well funded NHS so that they feel free to live as they wish.
    Sorry to be rude, but that's a daft comment. No matter how much you take care of yourself, you're going to need good health care sooner or later, and not worrying about having to pay through the nose for it when it happens (often out of the blue) is a near-universal preference.
    What's wrong with a system of National Insurance, with tax rates (note, rates, not amounts), linked to lifestyle risk?

    I suspect that those who advance the fallacy that there are only two models of healthcare, the NHS and fully-privatized, do so because deep down, they know that their model doesn't work very well - hence the need to cast it in fair light by contrasting it with something worse.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    RobD said:

    Jobabob said:

    £350 million for the NHS. A mendacious lie pedalled by Leaver-Corbynites like SandyRentool despite their knowing full well it was a bare face, flat lie.

    They should hang their heads in shame.

    Brwrecksit is coming - as Theresa May knew then as she knows now.

    Brwrecksit!

    I rather like that, and may use it.
    That one goes straight on the list with "Bliar", "Camoron", "Fib Dems" et al.
    Were you around on here when Labour were called Zanu Labour? Weird times (and boy, how far have we come!)
    I wasn't, but that may be the oldest entry on the list...
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    You unionists will use any old scaremongering rubbish to keep Scotland under your jackboot. Absolute bollocks. Up there with £350M a week for NHS
    So Nicola KEEP US IN THE SINGLE MARKET OR THE WORLD WILL END is talking 'Absolute bollocks' too?

    You can't have it both ways - if membership of 'the single market' is of critical importance - which do you choose?
    You know well which I would choose, out of UK every time.
    Indeed one would have to be in possession of two deaf ears not to be abreast of Malcolm's views on this particular subject.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    edited October 2016
    Ishmael_X said:


    It's an I wouldn't start from here situation. The answer to being like Amazon is to have software like Amazon, but projects to write software like Amazon's for the NHS tend to run through a couple of billion quid and then collapse. Outsourcing the whole shooting-match to Amazon or Google might be the way forward.

    Just hope you're not plugged into a life-support machine on GameDay.
  • Options

    Paul Waugh making some interesting observations......Zac won't have access to the Conservative database in his constituency, as he's not standing as a Conservative.....the Lib Dems on the other hand......

    Very good point, which could prove critical to his chances as this information could be worth up to 10% of his would-be vote, maybe more in a by-election where supporters need to be gee'd up to get them to vote.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    JackW said:

    Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 46

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

    I think Nate Silver is bang on with his 15% assesment in this election.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    JackW said:

    Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 46

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

    Ooh still close.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    geoffw said:

    malcolmg said:

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    No Malcolm. Hard brexit paints ScotNats into the corner. So Nicola has to support soft brexit to keep the flame alive.
    Why is the situation in Indy Scotland any different to that in Ireland? The border patrol boats on the Tweed yarn falls down whenever May opens her mouth about "no hard border with the Irish Republic".
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    JackW said:

    Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 46

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

    Just looking at the early vote numbers for Florida after 2nd day of in-person voting. Reps have regained the lead when adding in both postal and in-person, very odd. Also the second day of in-person appears to be a tie. In every in-person voting day in the last two elections Dems led weekday voting by ~40000 votes.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    My one big worry about a Trump presidency is what might happen to the US space program. Mind you Bush had superior plans to Obama for that so it's not a given that he'll be awful for it..
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,987
    nunu said:

    JackW said:

    Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 46

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

    Ooh still close.
    The Trump Train is back in service? :p
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    scotslass said:

    The problem is many people are asking what is the point of the New Statesman!

    Their campaign against Corbyn has collapsed, their uber unionism gives them a similar profile to the Daily Telegraph in Scotland and their understanding of the constitutional question is roughly the same as the Prime Minister's advisers.

    If BREXIT logic is that countries do not discriminate against other countries with whom they have a trade surplus then why does that not apply to Scotland which is England's fourth largest marketplace.

    If the Government claims that they can have an soft border between two parts of Ireland then why would Scots believe they would erect a hard border between England and Scotland.


    Quite right. Anytime anyone mentions this ludicrous idea of patrol boats on the Tweed, Nicola simply has to mention the lack of patrol boats on the Foyle.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Jobabob said:

    geoffw said:

    malcolmg said:

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    No Malcolm. Hard brexit paints ScotNats into the corner. So Nicola has to support soft brexit to keep the flame alive.
    Why is the situation in Indy Scotland any different to that in Ireland?
    You don't think there has been a difference in recent history between Northern Ireland & Scotland and their neighbours to the south?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,127
    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    JackW said:

    Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 46

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

    Ooh still close.
    The Trump Train is back in service? :p
    http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/trump-surges-ahead-of-clinton-in-poll-conducted-by-his-brain

    Donald Trump has surged ahead of Hillary Clinton in a new poll conducted by Trump’s brain.

    In a sign that his criticism of Clinton has been just fantastic, a majority of imaginary voters in Trump’s head agree that she is a “nasty woman,” with more than seventy per cent calling her “crooked,” “sad,” and a “disgrace.”
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787

    Paul Waugh making some interesting observations......Zac won't have access to the Conservative database in his constituency, as he's not standing as a Conservative.....the Lib Dems on the other hand......

    Very good point, which could prove critical to his chances as this information could be worth up to 10% of his would-be vote, maybe more in a by-election where supporters need to be gee'd up to get them to vote.

    He really is going to test 'personal vote' to destruction - how many Tory Remain activists are going to sit this one out, rather than knock on doors?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,987

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    JackW said:

    Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 46

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

    Ooh still close.
    The Trump Train is back in service? :p
    http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/trump-surges-ahead-of-clinton-in-poll-conducted-by-his-brain

    Donald Trump has surged ahead of Hillary Clinton in a new poll conducted by Trump’s brain.

    In a sign that his criticism of Clinton has been just fantastic, a majority of imaginary voters in Trump’s head agree that she is a “nasty woman,” with more than seventy per cent calling her “crooked,” “sad,” and a “disgrace.”
    I was told that poll was going to be yyyuuuuggee. I was not disappointed. :D
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    JackW said:

    Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 46

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

    Given the bucket loads of slurry that have been tipped over Donald's head these past weeks there's got to be at least an element of "Shy Tumpers" especially in these swing states?
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    JackW said:

    Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 46

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

    That is a very bad poll for Hillary.

    Also, if brokenwheel's post is right, Trump might win FL.....
  • Options
    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    Paul Waugh making some interesting observations......Zac won't have access to the Conservative database in his constituency, as he's not standing as a Conservative.....the Lib Dems on the other hand......

    Very good point, which could prove critical to his chances as this information could be worth up to 10% of his would-be vote, maybe more in a by-election where supporters need to be gee'd up to get them to vote.
    You dont think hes got a copy!!
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    timmo said:

    Paul Waugh making some interesting observations......Zac won't have access to the Conservative database in his constituency, as he's not standing as a Conservative.....the Lib Dems on the other hand......

    Very good point, which could prove critical to his chances as this information could be worth up to 10% of his would-be vote, maybe more in a by-election where supporters need to be gee'd up to get them to vote.
    You dont think hes got a copy!!
    You think he's going to break data protection laws?
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 46

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

    Given the bucket loads of slurry that have been tipped over Donald's head these past weeks there's got to be at least an element of "Shy Tumpers" especially in these swing states?
    I wouldn't be too heat up about one poll. Several polls like that may be a concern though.

    As for early voting, that again is a little concerning, but the Dems are doing better with write in's than last time, so may even out. I also feel there is a shy Clinton vote with republicans to be added in
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,687
    edited October 2016
    @Jobabob - yes I'm a Leaver, yes I posted £350 million leaflets in response to the BS coming from the Remain campaign ('the end of western civilisation', ffs), but no, I'm not a Corbynite.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,987

    timmo said:

    Paul Waugh making some interesting observations......Zac won't have access to the Conservative database in his constituency, as he's not standing as a Conservative.....the Lib Dems on the other hand......

    Very good point, which could prove critical to his chances as this information could be worth up to 10% of his would-be vote, maybe more in a by-election where supporters need to be gee'd up to get them to vote.
    You dont think hes got a copy!!
    You think he's going to break data protection laws?
    I am not a lawyer, but I don't think those laws apply to Bailiffs of the Chiltern Hundreds. :D
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    No doubt which side of the LHR debate the BBC is on with their choice of photo on their home page. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,137
    JackW said:

    Chris said:

    The thing is that he has to win so many where he's behind according to the polls (which still includes Ohio and Iowa according to 538). The argument here seems to be that he may indeed fail to do that in some of the southern and western states, but that he can still win by gaining several states in the mid-West/Pennsylvania. But that would mean a huge error in the polls. There seems to be very little evidence to back it up.

    Essentially it's FOP and Romney 12 and Trump's there - a 273/265 win. But it's a huge ask and there's no margin for error.

    Ohio and Iowa are on the cusp with some encouraging Trump polls. The others are trending Clinton with Trump struggling to keep the Romney states of North Carolina, Arizona and Utah. Trump has to get all his (Donald) ducks in a row. One missed shot and it's all over.
    The argument I was thinking of was HYUFD's, which - though I'm not sure I've understood correctly - essentially seemed to be conceding that he might not win some of the southern and western states such as North Carolina or Nevada, but that he could compensate by gaining not only Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but at least one other state in the mid-West. That seems to me to require huge polling errors (more so than scraping through with every single state up to and including Pennsylvania).
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Britons saw their real weekly earnings go up by nearly 2% last year in the biggest increase since the financial crisis, as low inflation and the introduction of the “national living wage” boosted take-home pay.

    The official figures also showed that the gender pay gap had shrunk to the lowest level in nearly two decades


    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/oct/26/weekly-uk-earnings-rose-2015-biggest-increase-since-financial-crash

    Great news. Shame that welcome progress will all be lost as inflation rises sharply and the economic outlook continues to deteriorate.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,687
    Pulpstar said:

    My one big worry about a Trump presidency is what might happen to the US space program. Mind you Bush had superior plans to Obama for that so it's not a given that he'll be awful for it..

    The ultimate vanity project. To boldly dump our crap where no crap has been dumped before.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    RobD said:

    timmo said:

    Paul Waugh making some interesting observations......Zac won't have access to the Conservative database in his constituency, as he's not standing as a Conservative.....the Lib Dems on the other hand......

    Very good point, which could prove critical to his chances as this information could be worth up to 10% of his would-be vote, maybe more in a by-election where supporters need to be gee'd up to get them to vote.
    You dont think hes got a copy!!
    You think he's going to break data protection laws?
    I am not a lawyer, but I don't think those laws apply to Bailiffs of the Chiltern Hundreds. :D
    But they do apply to Parliamentary Candidates campaigning as Independents.....
  • Options
    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    timmo said:

    Paul Waugh making some interesting observations......Zac won't have access to the Conservative database in his constituency, as he's not standing as a Conservative.....the Lib Dems on the other hand......

    Very good point, which could prove critical to his chances as this information could be worth up to 10% of his would-be vote, maybe more in a by-election where supporters need to be gee'd up to get them to vote.
    You dont think hes got a copy!!
    You think he's going to break data protection laws?
    I say again " you dont think he has a copy?"
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    @Jobabob - yes I'm a Leaver, yes I posted £350 million leaflets in response to the BS coming from the Remain campaign ('the end of western civilisation', ffs), but no, I'm not a Corbynite.

    You knowingly distributed a bare face lie about funding the National Health Service to the very people who rely on it (who you purport to stick up for) to trick them into voting for your nationalist fantasy.

    You should hang your head in shame.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    619 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 46

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

    Given the bucket loads of slurry that have been tipped over Donald's head these past weeks there's got to be at least an element of "Shy Tumpers" especially in these swing states?
    I wouldn't be too heat up about one poll. Several polls like that may be a concern though.

    As for early voting, that again is a little concerning, but the Dems are doing better with write in's than last time, so may even out. I also feel there is a shy Clinton vote with republicans to be added in
    Early voting overall looks marginally positive for Clinton, but it is very hard to tell anything concrete from it.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,687
    Anorak said:

    No doubt which side of the LHR debate the BBC is on with their choice of photo on their home page. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news

    Well it is the likes of Emirates that will benefit from the extra slots, not BA.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    geoffw said:

    malcolmg said:

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    No Malcolm. Hard brexit paints ScotNats into the corner. So Nicola has to support soft brexit to keep the flame alive.
    Why is the situation in Indy Scotland any different to that in Ireland?
    You don't think there has been a difference in recent history between Northern Ireland & Scotland and their neighbours to the south?
    Explain to me why an independent EU Ireland doesn't need border controls but an independent EU Scotland does. Here's a clue – there is no rational explanation. So maybe save your time.

    Anyway, work.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Pulpstar said:

    619 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 46

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

    Given the bucket loads of slurry that have been tipped over Donald's head these past weeks there's got to be at least an element of "Shy Tumpers" especially in these swing states?
    I wouldn't be too heat up about one poll. Several polls like that may be a concern though.

    As for early voting, that again is a little concerning, but the Dems are doing better with write in's than last time, so may even out. I also feel there is a shy Clinton vote with republicans to be added in
    Early voting overall looks marginally positive for Clinton, but it is very hard to tell anything concrete from it.
    It doesn't sound that positive for her in FL, if brokenwheel is right...
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Peston reading the runes on the government:

    The big fact about the May administration is that she is a strong character in charge of structurally feeble government - a ruling party riven by personal and ideological divisions, almost all of the animosities stemming from Tory MPs' competing religious beliefs about what our future relationship with the EU should be.

    That extraordinary weakness is visible in May granting a licence to Boris Johnson to thumb his nose at the boldest decision she has taken so far, the runway construction (and the identical licence granted to the education secretary Justine Greening, who is so far not using it as conspicuously).

    None of this feels sustainable - given that May faces challenges of a complexity and magnitude no British government has faced since 1945, namely how to reconcile control of immigration with an economic and trade policy that doesn't impoverish us, and how simultaneously to keep the United Kingdom intact.

    So in spite of her protestations that she does not want an early general election, it is increasingly difficult to see how she can negotiate Brexit and the maintenance of Scotland within the union unless she wins a personal mandate by going to the country - and probably as soon as next year.


    https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,687
    Jobabob said:

    @Jobabob - yes I'm a Leaver, yes I posted £350 million leaflets in response to the BS coming from the Remain campaign ('the end of western civilisation', ffs), but no, I'm not a Corbynite.

    You knowingly distributed a bare face lie about funding the National Health Service to the very people who rely on it (who you purport to stick up for) to trick them into voting for your nationalist fantasy.

    You should hang your head in shame.
    You assume that I was leafletting a Labour area. Which I wasn't.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,127

    Jobabob said:

    @Jobabob - yes I'm a Leaver, yes I posted £350 million leaflets in response to the BS coming from the Remain campaign ('the end of western civilisation', ffs), but no, I'm not a Corbynite.

    You knowingly distributed a bare face lie about funding the National Health Service to the very people who rely on it (who you purport to stick up for) to trick them into voting for your nationalist fantasy.

    You should hang your head in shame.
    You assume that I was leafletting a Labour area. Which I wasn't.
    Only Labour areas rely on the NHS? Stop digging.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    619 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 46

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

    Given the bucket loads of slurry that have been tipped over Donald's head these past weeks there's got to be at least an element of "Shy Tumpers" especially in these swing states?
    I wouldn't be too heat up about one poll. Several polls like that may be a concern though.

    As for early voting, that again is a little concerning, but the Dems are doing better with write in's than last time, so may even out. I also feel there is a shy Clinton vote with republicans to be added in
    Early voting overall looks marginally positive for Clinton, but it is very hard to tell anything concrete from it.
    It doesn't sound that positive for her in FL, if brokenwheel is right...
    @Bobajob It's the hope that kills you :(
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Pulpstar said:

    My one big worry about a Trump presidency is what might happen to the US space program. Mind you Bush had superior plans to Obama for that so it's not a given that he'll be awful for it..

    Obama's office of management and budget has consistently been against big-ticket funding for the space programme. The problem is they don't want to help Republican politicians as it is Rep states where much of the stuff is built.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    geoffw said:

    malcolmg said:

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    No Malcolm. Hard brexit paints ScotNats into the corner. So Nicola has to support soft brexit to keep the flame alive.
    Why is the situation in Indy Scotland any different to that in Ireland?
    You don't think there has been a difference in recent history between Northern Ireland & Scotland and their neighbours to the south?
    Explain to me why an independent EU Ireland doesn't need border controls but an independent EU Scotland does. Here's a clue – there is no rational explanation. So maybe save your time.

    Anyway, work.
    Here's a clue - history- of which you appear spectacularly ignorant.
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Carlotta/Jobabob

    Well said Jobabob. Jon Snow of Channel 4 totally floored Amber Rudd on this very point the other night.

    Carlotta it is not a question of history but of practicality. If border controls are not necessary on the Foyle they are not necessary on the Tweed. To argue the contrary is obvious scaremongering and Project Fear has not been faring to well of late!
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    geoffw said:

    malcolmg said:

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    No Malcolm. Hard brexit paints ScotNats into the corner. So Nicola has to support soft brexit to keep the flame alive.
    Why is the situation in Indy Scotland any different to that in Ireland?
    You don't think there has been a difference in recent history between Northern Ireland & Scotland and their neighbours to the south?
    Explain to me why an independent EU Ireland doesn't need border controls but an independent EU Scotland does. Here's a clue – there is no rational explanation. So maybe save your time.

    Anyway, work.
    Here's a clue - history- of which you appear spectacularly ignorant.
    Old wall-building habits die hard.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904
    Interesting chatter about Labour dropping out of Richmond by-election to favour single opponent. Every little bit helps.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,127

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    geoffw said:

    malcolmg said:

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    No Malcolm. Hard brexit paints ScotNats into the corner. So Nicola has to support soft brexit to keep the flame alive.
    Why is the situation in Indy Scotland any different to that in Ireland?
    You don't think there has been a difference in recent history between Northern Ireland & Scotland and their neighbours to the south?
    Explain to me why an independent EU Ireland doesn't need border controls but an independent EU Scotland does. Here's a clue – there is no rational explanation. So maybe save your time.

    Anyway, work.
    Here's a clue - history- of which you appear spectacularly ignorant.
    Your argument sounds wrong-headed to me.

    Centuries of peaceful coexistence in a union means border controls are essential after a divorce, but decades of violent paramilitarism means that open borders are needed?
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,137

    JackW said:

    Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 46

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

    Just looking at the early vote numbers for Florida after 2nd day of in-person voting. Reps have regained the lead when adding in both postal and in-person, very odd. Also the second day of in-person appears to be a tie. In every in-person voting day in the last two elections Dems led weekday voting by ~40000 votes.
    It would be interesting to see the actual figures after the second day.

    CBS here seems to be reporting a Republican lead of 7,000 after the first day (which accounted for 300,000 of about 1,575,000 votes so far, if I understand correctly). Given the reports of a Republican lead of 1.7% in the postal ballots, that suggests the first day reduced that lead from about 21,000 to 7,000, implying a Democrat lead of about 4.5% on the first day. It would be surprising if it had become a tie after the second day:
    http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/10/25/gop-has-slight-edge-over-dems-in-floridas-early-voting/
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,687

    Jobabob said:

    @Jobabob - yes I'm a Leaver, yes I posted £350 million leaflets in response to the BS coming from the Remain campaign ('the end of western civilisation', ffs), but no, I'm not a Corbynite.

    You knowingly distributed a bare face lie about funding the National Health Service to the very people who rely on it (who you purport to stick up for) to trick them into voting for your nationalist fantasy.

    You should hang your head in shame.
    You assume that I was leafletting a Labour area. Which I wasn't.
    Only Labour areas rely on the NHS? Stop digging.
    That's not what I said. The 'purport to stick up for' line indicated that Mr Bob was referring to Labour voters.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    PBers various - The Selzer/Bloomberg Florida poll

    I never get excited by a single poll among dozens in a swing state. Similarly Trump had one decent Nevada poll yesterday. Just as Clinton shouldn't go all wobbly over an Trump lead in Ohio.

    Trends, early voting over several days and reputable state polls with accurate demographics are the dynamics to focus upon now.
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    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    geoffw said:

    malcolmg said:

    New Statesman:

    For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.


    She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why

    No Malcolm. Hard brexit paints ScotNats into the corner. So Nicola has to support soft brexit to keep the flame alive.
    Why is the situation in Indy Scotland any different to that in Ireland?
    You don't think there has been a difference in recent history between Northern Ireland & Scotland and their neighbours to the south?
    Explain to me why an independent EU Ireland doesn't need border controls but an independent EU Scotland does. Here's a clue – there is no rational explanation. So maybe save your time.

    Anyway, work.
    Here's a clue - history- of which you appear spectacularly ignorant.
    Your argument sounds wrong-headed to me.

    Centuries of peaceful coexistence in a union means border controls are essential after a divorce, but decades of violent paramilitarism means that open borders are needed?
    It may indeed be wrong headed, but it's all they got..
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927
    Jobabob said:

    @Jobabob - yes I'm a Leaver, yes I posted £350 million leaflets in response to the BS coming from the Remain campaign ('the end of western civilisation', ffs), but no, I'm not a Corbynite.

    You knowingly distributed a bare face lie about funding the National Health Service to the very people who rely on it (who you purport to stick up for) to trick them into voting for your nationalist fantasy.

    You should hang your head in shame.
    It would take a heart of stone not to be moved to laughter.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited October 2016
    Jonathan said:

    Interesting chatter about Labour dropping out of Richmond by-election to favour single opponent. Every little bit helps.

    I can't believe they would do that. It's one thing for the Tories not to compete against a Tory, but for Labour to walk away from a by-election to help the Yellow Peril beat the Baby Eater seems totally off. Sends the wrong message to the remaining Labour voters - especially the Blairite wing - that voting LD is an acceptable alternative.

    EDIT: I see from Mr Meeks' tweet that the politburo have seen sense.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    Jobabob said:

    scotslass said:

    The problem is many people are asking what is the point of the New Statesman!

    Their campaign against Corbyn has collapsed, their uber unionism gives them a similar profile to the Daily Telegraph in Scotland and their understanding of the constitutional question is roughly the same as the Prime Minister's advisers.

    If BREXIT logic is that countries do not discriminate against other countries with whom they have a trade surplus then why does that not apply to Scotland which is England's fourth largest marketplace.

    If the Government claims that they can have an soft border between two parts of Ireland then why would Scots believe they would erect a hard border between England and Scotland.

    Quite right. Anytime anyone mentions this ludicrous idea of patrol boats on the Tweed, Nicola simply has to mention the lack of patrol boats on the Foyle.
    That would be typical SNP dishonesty, arguing by false analogy from present to future while expecting supporters to say "Take that, you doubters!" A state that's in a single market with the EU cannot be in one with a state outside the EU that isn't.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    619 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 46

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

    Given the bucket loads of slurry that have been tipped over Donald's head these past weeks there's got to be at least an element of "Shy Tumpers" especially in these swing states?
    I wouldn't be too heat up about one poll. Several polls like that may be a concern though.

    As for early voting, that again is a little concerning, but the Dems are doing better with write in's than last time, so may even out. I also feel there is a shy Clinton vote with republicans to be added in
    Early voting overall looks marginally positive for Clinton, but it is very hard to tell anything concrete from it.
    It doesn't sound that positive for her in FL, if brokenwheel is right...
    There are of course a lot of caveats. Like we don't know who they are actually voting for, just their party registration.

    If I had to guess what it looks like is that while the Dems made a big effort on postal this has only cannibalised from their in-person vote. It isn't additional voters.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    scotslass said:

    If border controls are not necessary on the Foyle they are not necessary on the Tweed

    Simplistic doesn't quite cover it.

    If Scotland is to have free movement of people from the EU, but E&W isn't - how exactly is that to be policed?
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    I saw the article in the Guardian about May's pro EU comments to the bankers pre vote.

    The fact that she kept such a low profile during the Brexit contrary to what she actually thought, and now seemingly has fully embraced Brexit.

    May is particularly calculating. Her style of politics just leave a very bad taste in one's mouth. Leadership is about taking the public with you, not calculating the prevailing winds and following suit. Gordon Brown soon found that following those winds led to some rocky waters ahead.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Interesting, those are not the anti-Corbynites in the party.

    Perhaps John McDonnell is the value for next Labour leader ?
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    glwglw Posts: 9,552

    Your argument sounds wrong-headed to me.

    Centuries of peaceful coexistence in a union means border controls are essential after a divorce, but decades of violent paramilitarism means that open borders are needed?

    Well apart from the history, an independent Scotland in the EU would likely end up a member of the Schengen Area which the Republic of Ireland is not.

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,687
    A pro LHR3 Corbynite to offer voters a real alternative.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    tyson said:

    I saw the article in the Guardian about May's pro EU comments to the bankers pre vote.

    These were remarkably similar to the comments she made in public.....

    Now she has accepted the verdict of the people she is to be condemned?
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited October 2016

    scotslass said:

    If border controls are not necessary on the Foyle they are not necessary on the Tweed

    Simplistic doesn't quite cover it.

    If Scotland is to have free movement of people from the EU, but E&W isn't - how exactly is that to be policed?
    I think you need to make an argument that doesn't apply to Ireland too. Otherwise you're like a dog chasing her tail.

    glw had a better go at it, but the right to free movement is only tangentially related to Schengen.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Anorak, it'd be a bloody weird by-election. Already odd not having a Conservative candidate.

    Mr. F, make Carthage great again!

    https://twitter.com/Lauren_Southern/status/785896326177419264
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Jonathan said:

    Interesting chatter about Labour dropping out of Richmond by-election to favour single opponent. Every little bit helps.


    Actually that is more than interesting.....the likes of Clive Lewis favour this kind of tactical alliance at a national level. Faced against overwhelming odds at a GE....agreeing one candidate for the parties of the left/centre left could be the only way to make any kind of inroads....
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,127
    glw said:

    Your argument sounds wrong-headed to me.

    Centuries of peaceful coexistence in a union means border controls are essential after a divorce, but decades of violent paramilitarism means that open borders are needed?

    Well apart from the history, an independent Scotland in the EU would likely end up a member of the Schengen Area which the Republic of Ireland is not.
    That ignores the other part of the hypothetical which is that somehow the CTA between the Republic of Ireland and the UK is maintained. If that is the case then the same solution can be used for Scotland.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927

    Jobabob said:

    @Jobabob - yes I'm a Leaver, yes I posted £350 million leaflets in response to the BS coming from the Remain campaign ('the end of western civilisation', ffs), but no, I'm not a Corbynite.

    You knowingly distributed a bare face lie about funding the National Health Service to the very people who rely on it (who you purport to stick up for) to trick them into voting for your nationalist fantasy.

    You should hang your head in shame.
    You assume that I was leafletting a Labour area. Which I wasn't.
    In my case, I distributed a lot of very good Labour Leave leaflets in left wing parts of Luton.
This discussion has been closed.