- If Con don't field a candidate then Zac surely wins easily
- If Con do field a candidate then May risks a Lib Dem win
There is no chance of Con winning against Zac so much better not to field a candidate.
LD win increases risk of losing boundary changes. DUP will vote against boundary changes so starting point is majority of 16. If Con lose two or three by-elections pre Oct 2018 then only 5 to 6 rebels needed to kill it.
Conclusion: Must avoid LD win - so don't put up a candidate - let Zac win as an Independent.
Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?
He appeals - as HYUFD correctly points out - to the WWC, which if fused with the the traditional Republican base, creates an unstoppable political force. And he was facing Hillary Clinton, possibly the least popular Democratic nominee possible.
This should have been a Republican walkover.
But Trump has f*cked it up. He's managed to alienate traditional Republicans, and women, and Hispanics, and and and and...
A businessman should have done a great job putting an organisation in place to translate support into votes. But he's not. From all that we hear, the registration and GOTV efforts of the Republicans are woeful.
And his total refusal to go to debate camp cost him dearly. He thought he could wing it against an uninspiring Clinton. But the Clinton campaign was ruthless, and Donald has more skeletons in his cupboard than I have socks (and I have a lot of socks).
Donald Trump should have won 400 EVs. He's going to go down to a monumental loss.
I think you are going a little too far the other way now, I certainly don't think Trump would ever have got to 400 EVs. Certainly he could have been more focused in his campaign and Hillary is the favourite now but I still believe it will be closer than the polls suggest and of course part of the reason he motivated the wwc was precisely because he alienated Hispanics by advocating tougher border control
A lot of Hispanics support tougher border controls. What they don't support is being called rapists.
Very few Hispanics support tougher border controls and deportations, large numbers of WWC voters do. I don't disagree Trump could have been more thoughtful in his language
That poll has the US population backing border control over a path to citizenship by 41% to 23%, Hispanic voters prioritise a path to citizenship over border control by 46% to 38%
Can anyone point to a shred of evidence that the Trumpster has any chance at all? I ask as a man who is on Trump at 6.5. I feel certain to lose my money.
He appeals - as HYUFD correctly points out - to the WWC, which if fused with the the traditional Republican base, creates an unstoppable political force. And he was facing Hillary Clinton, possibly the least popular Democratic nominee possible.
This should have been a Republican walkover.
But Trump has f*cked it up. He's managed to alienate traditional Republicans, and women, and Hispanics, and and and and...
A businessman should have done a great job putting an organisation in place to translate support into votes. But he's not. From all that we hear, the registration and GOTV efforts of the Republicans are woeful.
And his total refusal to go to debate camp cost him dearly. He thought he could wing it against an uninspiring Clinton. But the Clinton campaign was ruthless, and Donald has more skeletons in his cupboard than I have socks (and I have a lot of socks).
Donald Trump should have won 400 EVs. He's going to go down to a monumental loss.
I think you are going a little too far the other way now, I certainly don't think Trump would ever have got to 400 EVs. Certainly he could have been more focused in his campaign and Hillary is the favourite now but I still believe it will be closer than the polls suggest and of course part of the reason he motivated the wwc was precisely because he alienated Hispanics by advocating tougher border control
A lot of Hispanics support tougher border controls. What they don't support is being called rapists.
Very few Hispanics support tougher border controls and deportations, large numbers of WWC voters do. I don't disagree Trump could have been more thoughtful in his language
That poll has the US population backing border control over a path to citizenship by 41% to 23%, Hispanic voters prioritise a path to citizenship over border control by 46% to 38%
38% of Hispanics is not "a very few".
Compared to the general population it is a complete contrast
- If Con don't field a candidate then Zac surely wins easily
- If Con do field a candidate then May risks a Lib Dem win
There is no chance of Con winning against Zac so much better not to field a candidate.
LD win increases risk of losing boundary changes. DUP will vote against boundary changes so starting point is majority of 16. If Con lose two or three by-elections pre Oct 2018 then only 5 to 6 rebels needed to kill it.
Conclusion: Must avoid LD win - so don't put up a candidate - let Zac win as an Independent.
Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
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LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.