In fact those poll comparisons do look an awful lot like Brexit.
Two major differences though: Remain was up by only 2% on "poll of polls", whereas Clinton is up by 6/7. Also, a Presidential election is an event familiar to pollsters, whereas the Brexit referendum was close to unique.
Telegraph Christian bakers have lost their challenge to a discrimination ruling after refusing to make a pro-gay marriage cake https://t.co/8saAO6F9j1
Is political belief protected against discrimination in Northern Ireland ?
Yes it is. I hadn't realised that that was the case in Northern Ireland, until this case began.
The bakers would have been equally liable had they rejected a request by Gareth Lee to bake a cake with the slogan "Support the Right to March", or "Tiocfaidh ar la."
Thank You Sean. That's fascinating. I was aware there were legal protections for political activism due to past abuses but I'm astonished the law is so widely drawn. I suppose if political beliefs are a ' ' protected characteristic ' then discrimination has taken place. But it seems a law drafted so widely to guarantee bizzare cases. I wonder if the Cake order was a sting operation ?
By all accounts, however the bakery was chosen, the issue became litigation because the customer was a LGBT activist.
Yes, it was very similar to the case against the Christian-owned B&B a few years back. Both businesses appear to have been deliberately targeted by activists, with the intention of ending up in court to set a legal precident.
That's a slightly strange interpretation. Big rise in all absentee ballots for all registered affiliations, the proportions look pretty much the same to me.
Not sure $150 oil is going to help the EU any. It would though give the UK a mighty lift for the North Sea marginal fields (acknowledging that Nicola Sturgeon will again be claiming them all for herself).
UK Govt. messes up Brexit negotiations - I'd argue that is already priced in. The low pound is already a factor in propping up house prices as they are already massively more attractive to foreign buyers than they were at the start of the year. Demand is still huge by virtue of our increased population. The only thing popping house prices by double digit % is a mighty hike in interest rates. Whereas the next move is still likely down.
Suspending our exit would be seen as copping out by the voters. It would always be the wrong time to resume negotiations. Suicide for any politician proposing suspension. Especially a PM who has said it will happen within five months. Which gives a very tight window for your scenario to pan out.
My scenario was one of a hundred possibles!
If there is a severe economic downturn, for any reason, then Brexit will be endangered. It might be caused by $150 oil, it might be caused by a property downturn, it might be caused by an investment collapse, it might be caused by an even greater run on sterling.
I don't think it's likely (although I am more negative on the economic outlook than I was two months ago), but it is possible.
Another thing: we will be able to pause or withdraw from Article 50 at any point. The other EU members would be pathetically glad to tell their voters that the UK had seen the light, plus they wouldn't have to reach into their pockets to make up our shortfall.
Again, to repeat, all I'm saying is that there's a small - but real - risk that Brexit gets derailed for some reason. And the most likely reason is a serious recession.
Not as daft as putting cash on the second and third placed drivers to lead the first lap, when the guy on pole had unbeknowingly spent the last week practicing his starts!
@ScottyNational: Line : After Theresa May installs a direct line to Sturgeon re Brexit, a fault is reported as May can only hear a continuous whining noise
That's a slightly strange interpretation. Big rise in all absentee ballots for all registered affiliations, the proportions look pretty much the same to me.
The dems and repubs are keeping up with each other which would make it a wash but the independents have surged from about 50k to 200k. So question is who are the NEW independents voting for?
"who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?
Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016). Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white." These are the new IPA voters only however.
That's a slightly strange interpretation. Big rise in all absentee ballots for all registered affiliations, the proportions look pretty much the same to me.
The dems and repubs are keeping up with each other which would make it a wash but the independents have surged from about 50k to 200k. So question is who are the NEW independents voting for?
"who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?
Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016). Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white." These are the new IPA voters only however.
Interesting. Is there a big WWC population in Florida? It could be women as well...
Martin Luther said " The Christian shoemaker doesn't honour Christ by putting a cross on every shoe but by making the best shoes he can. " I've no theological sympathy for the Ashers what so ever. I think they were being Pharisaic. The explanation from @Sean_F suggests the ruling may be reasonable in law. But what a law ! Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
That's a slightly strange interpretation. Big rise in all absentee ballots for all registered affiliations, the proportions look pretty much the same to me.
The dems and repubs are keeping up with each other which would make it a wash but the independents have surged from about 50k to 200k. So question is who are the NEW independents voting for?
"who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?
Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016). Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white." These are the new IPA voters only however.
You're talking about a 50% (Trump's lead with whites?) of a 9% difference in a ~50% rise in ~20% of absentee ballots. Trump's problem - given this is his target audience in Florida - is that it is not bigger than 0.5% of absentee ballots. He's losing a much bigger share on on the day hispanics and AAs compared to 2012.
That's a slightly strange interpretation. Big rise in all absentee ballots for all registered affiliations, the proportions look pretty much the same to me.
The dems and repubs are keeping up with each other which would make it a wash but the independents have surged from about 50k to 200k. So question is who are the NEW independents voting for?
"who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?
Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016). Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white." These are the new IPA voters only however.
Interesting. Is there a big WWC population in Florida? It could be women as well...
Florida is less white but the white population there is more non uni educated.
Martin Luther said " The Christian shoemaker doesn't honour Christ by putting a cross on every shoe but by making the best shoes he can. " I've no theological sympathy for the Ashers what so ever. I think they were being Pharisaic. The explanation from @Sean_F suggests the ruling may be reasonable in law. But what a law ! Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
Indeed, as a strong supporter of gay marriage that's my problem with this ruling. Just flip it around, should a gay baker have to bake a cake saying "ban gay marriage", I think a lot of those people supporting this ruling would change their minds!
In fact those poll comparisons do look an awful lot like Brexit.
Two major differences though: Remain was up by only 2% on "poll of polls", whereas Clinton is up by 6/7. Also, a Presidential election is an event familiar to pollsters, whereas the Brexit referendum was close to unique.
Yes one massive mistake populous made was adjusting their samples so that wealth played a larger correlating factor than age when it came to turnout. Big mistake.
That's a slightly strange interpretation. Big rise in all absentee ballots for all registered affiliations, the proportions look pretty much the same to me.
The dems and repubs are keeping up with each other which would make it a wash but the independents have surged from about 50k to 200k. So question is who are the NEW independents voting for?
"who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?
Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016). Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white." These are the new IPA voters only however.
Interesting. Is there a big WWC population in Florida? It could be women as well...
Florida is less white but the white population there is more non uni educated.
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
So not just the correct order of magnitude, it rounds to the same thing if you round 50 down. Yes it is out by quite a lot, but if it really mattered to people why did it not drive them into the remain camp in droves when the truth was revealed? My link is from 22 April.
The voters don't pay that much attention, and getting a debunking through is quite tricky: Often debunking a lie will actually end up strengthening belief in the original lie.
A lot of the time they'll just hear the various claims and counter-claims and assume the truth is somewhere in the middle. This probably isn't a bad heuristic in a lot of cases, but the fact that the voters do this incentivizes campaigns to egg up their claims and counter-claims.
Yes quite. The error was probably due to incompetence rather than malice, but it could also be a clever gambit: "OK, if we are wrong, why don't you buy a bus and paint on it 'vote remain because we ONLY pay the EU £276m a week'?"
LEAVE will have deliberately used a provocatively high number on the bus to ensure that REMAIN spent their time raising the issue by challenging the amount.
So LEAVE did a good job in getting REMAIN to keep raising the issue LEAVE wanted to talk about - regardless of the actual amount. Genius.
F1: I think this from the BBC gossip column is a little bit exaggerated: "Renault driver Jolyon Palmer was disappointed that his team-mate Kevin Magnussen was not asked to move over for him with the pair challenging for the podium in Austin. (Autosport)"
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
Seems to be a very odd law. One imagines it would repealed if a Muslim baker was targeted.
WHERE the Florida returns are being sent in from compared to 2012 would be useful info.
If returns are up heavily in the Dade area, then that is good for Hillary. Similiary if returns are up from the pan handle/Pensacola - Jacksonville stretch then you'd think it would favour Trump.
On the day turnout for those two areas could well be indicative, Philly vs rural PA is perhaps an even more critical canary in the coalmine, mind.
F1: I think this from the BBC gossip column is a little bit exaggerated: "Renault driver Jolyon Palmer was disappointed that his team-mate Kevin Magnussen was not asked to move over for him with the pair challenging for the podium in Austin. (Autosport)"
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
Seems to be a very odd law. One imagines it would repealed if a Muslim baker was targeted.
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
Seems to be a very odd law. One imagines it would repealed if a Muslim baker was targeted.
One can see the reason for it, given that the society has very deep religious/political divisions, and the government doesn't want people to be denied jobs because they're Unionists or Nationalists. But, I'd be surprised if the original framers of this law ever envisaged that people could be sued for declining to promote political opinions which they don't share.
Well Wes Streeting is being remarkably dense. Last I checked we don't have a Vote Leave government but a Conservative one. Chancellor should tell him to eff off.
Of course the real issue was that the referendum campaigns weren't referendum campaigns but were fought essentially in the same way as a general election which was deeply frustrating.
That's right. But a lie of the sheer scale and mendacity of the " £350m pw for the NHS " doesn't end with the referendum. If that sort of thing becomes accepted it effects every subsequent campaign. Not only will there not be £350m pw extra for the NHS the structural problems with the NHS budget will be at best unaffected by EU withdrawal. So counter populism reminding people continually of the £350m lie has uses far removed from referendum recriminations. It's about reestablishing normal parameters for political debate.
£4,300 per household was worse. A figure cooked up by assuming worst-case Brexit and best-case Remain, using the wrong number of households in 2030, and conflating GDP with household income. All presented by Osborne as some kind of impartial Treasury analysis and repeated as fact by BSE.
£350m on the other hand was the most generous interpretation of what we give the EU (or rather, lose control over) each week. Which is not to say it's the figure we should have used, just that it had some basis in fact.
The difference is that 350 million was a deliberate lie. 4,300 is reasonably accurate. The average family income is roughly 43,000 and the currency has devalued 10%. When Turkey doesn't join...the NHS has a crisis and/or the economy goes pear shaped 17,000,000 pitchforks will come out and they're they're going to be aimed squarely at Boris Johnson's backside
- A currency fall of 10% affects imports, it does not make everyone 10% poorer. - The £4,300 figure was for 2030, the currency will have risen again by then - its value now is partly down to uncertainty.
That's a very interesting thought. A 10% devaluation in currency doesn't make everyone using that currency 10% poorer.
I'm not an economist but how exactly does that work? I need to know because if you're right Barclays bank in Nice have just chisseled me!
With help from some PB web gurus yesterday, I've now got a little program which extracts the probability distributions by ECV total from fivethirtyeight.com (polls-only forecast) and the Huffington post models, which gives the following results. Note that 538 has a much longer tail to the probability distribution (it looks too long to me):
Clinton Bands 538 Huff
================================
Under 250 9.24% 1.33%
250-259 2.12% 0.91%
260-269 2.65% 1.45%
270-279 3.82% 2.32%
280-289 3.25% 2.60%
290-299 3.64% 4.59%
300-309 4.35% 6.17%
310-319 5.10% 7.13%
320-329 5.71% 7.65%
330-339 5.42% 10.11%
340-349 7.43% 19.77%
350-359 8.81% 17.98%
360-369 7.14% 7.01%
370-379 5.74% 4.24%
380-389 4.10% 2.69%
390-399 3.56% 1.71%
400 or over 17.95% 2.34%
================================
Prob Clinton win 86.00% 96.31%
Implied fair value for spreads markets:
Clinton ECVs 340.6 336.5
Clinton 270-up 76.5 67.2
Clinton 300-up 52.4 39.5
Clinton 330-up 32.0 16.5
Trump 270-up 5.8 7
Trump 300-up 2.7 1
Trump 330-up 1.2 0
My god the BBC are really going large on the jungle (Calais) clearances. Lead item on the news, rolling updates, etc.
Is this really the momentous event they're portraying it to be?
The Telegraph are reporting 200 British anarchists are causing trouble there as well, starting most of the problems and using arson to ward off police. I wonder whether the BBC will report that. Hopefully the French police round up these arseholes and stick them in jail for a long time.
Mr. Sandpit, think of the odds if that had happened. Must've been hundreds to one.
Mr. Anorak, there were two propaganda pieces at the start of the BBC News at Ten. After the broadcast by the Jungle's Ambassador to the BBC, Fergal Keane[sp] had a piece.
I especially enjoyed his lamentation nothing could be done about migration, just a few minutes after stating that migration into/via the Balkans had fallen from 200,000 to under 2,000 after walls/fences were put up.
What we really need now is a Brexit Cake Case. That would help pass the time before Article 50 invocation. Nigel Farage could order a " Let's give fund our NHS instead." Cake from a europhile nationalist baker. They'll refuse as their religion doesn't them to write lies in icing sugar. Farage Sues for political discrimination. It would be enormous fun.
Telegraph Christian bakers have lost their challenge to a discrimination ruling after refusing to make a pro-gay marriage cake https://t.co/8saAO6F9j1
Can a lawyer explain this to me ? Northern Ireland doesn't have Gay Marriage. So " Support Gay Marriage " is a policy proposition. If they had refused to bake a cake saying " Support the Laffer Curve " could they have been convicted of discrimination as well ? They did discriminate but surely the sort of discrimination they used, against a political slogan, has to be illegal ? Is political belief protected against discrimination in Northern Ireland ?
I agree. And oddly (though obviously they must know best), that doesn't seem to have been the argument that was used by their defending council, who instead went on it being against their religious convictions. What if it wasn't against their religious convictions? Can an atheist or agnostic not also choose what cakes to decorate?
All very odd. It indicates to me that society isn't really moving forward, just swinging from one side to the other.
180 degree reversal of my attitude on this when the plaintiff turns out to be an "activist" going out of his way to be a twat.
Lots of court cases - some very important - were brought by activists. If you were only concerned about the money, this wouldn't have happened. You just need to make sure force of will isn't a substitute for judgment.
Don't understand. This guy was acting as an agent provocateur which is a shitty and in many cases illegal thing to do.
That's a slightly strange interpretation. Big rise in all absentee ballots for all registered affiliations, the proportions look pretty much the same to me.
The dems and repubs are keeping up with each other which would make it a wash but the independents have surged from about 50k to 200k. So question is who are the NEW independents voting for?
"who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?
Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016). Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white." These are the new IPA voters only however.
Interesting. Is there a big WWC population in Florida? It could be women as well...
Florida is less white but the white population there is more non uni educated.
It's difficult to discern much from the early returns. I assume nothing is counted till polls close on election day ?
We do know whether the voter is a registered Democrat/Republican/Independent and quite a lot of demographics. These do not point to shy Trumpers, and registration is closed in nearly all states.
My god the BBC are really going large on the jungle (Calais) clearances. Lead item on the news, rolling updates, etc.
Is this really the momentous event they're portraying it to be?
It is for BBC reporters. They are always keen to visit France rather than middle eastern trouble spots.
Ah. It all becomes clear.
For the record, I accept this is an important event, but not one that requires minute-by-minute updates and breathless ground-zero reporting.
This is the same BBC that blurred the faces of the translators "child" migrants. It doesn't take a genius to work out what their agenda might be.
On the other hand, and despite the prime billing, it's ranking below Justin Bieber, Poldark, and Gay Cakes on the 'most read' list. [three things rarely part of the same sentence]
That's a slightly strange interpretation. Big rise in all absentee ballots for all registered affiliations, the proportions look pretty much the same to me.
The dems and repubs are keeping up with each other which would make it a wash but the independents have surged from about 50k to 200k. So question is who are the NEW independents voting for?
"who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?
Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016). Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white." These are the new IPA voters only however.
Interesting. Is there a big WWC population in Florida? It could be women as well...
Florida is less white but the white population there is more non uni educated.
It's difficult to discern much from the early returns. I assume nothing is counted till polls close on election day ?
We do know whether the voter is a registered Democrat/Republican/Independent and quite a lot of demographics. These do not point to shy Trumpers, and registration is closed in nearly all states.
All sounds odd. Officials are cross-checking the names and addresses of absent/early postal ballots against lists of registered supporters? I guess that is what they can do in some US states.
That's a slightly strange interpretation. Big rise in all absentee ballots for all registered affiliations, the proportions look pretty much the same to me.
The dems and repubs are keeping up with each other which would make it a wash but the independents have surged from about 50k to 200k. So question is who are the NEW independents voting for?
"who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?
Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016). Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white." These are the new IPA voters only however.
Interesting. Is there a big WWC population in Florida? It could be women as well...
Florida is less white but the white population there is more non uni educated.
Correction to the Trump N-up figures, the Huff ones were formatted wrongly. They should be:
Trump 270-up 5.8 0.7
Trump 300-up 2.7 0.1
Trump 330-up 1.2 0.0
The Times reporting that the EU commission is trying to resist moves by the Basel international banking committee to raise capital requirements for global banks because it would snuff the life out of Deutsche Bank and a few other Eurozone banks. At the last "stress" test the ECB allowed DB to cheat and cast aspersions on the UK banking sector. The commission is putting the safety of the global banking sector and EU banks at risk in order to try and avoid admitting their major banks are all in trouble.
That's a slightly strange interpretation. Big rise in all absentee ballots for all registered affiliations, the proportions look pretty much the same to me.
The dems and repubs are keeping up with each other which would make it a wash but the independents have surged from about 50k to 200k. So question is who are the NEW independents voting for?
"who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?
Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016). Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white." These are the new IPA voters only however.
Interesting. Is there a big WWC population in Florida? It could be women as well...
Florida is less white but the white population there is more non uni educated.
It's difficult to discern much from the early returns. I assume nothing is counted till polls close on election day ?
We do know whether the voter is a registered Democrat/Republican/Independent and quite a lot of demographics. These do not point to shy Trumpers, and registration is closed in nearly all states.
All sounds odd. Officials are cross-checking the names and addresses of absent/early postal ballots against lists of registered supporters? I guess that is what they can do in some US states.
In most states voters register for a particular party so they can vote in that primary. Some primaries are restricted to registered supporters. Hence we know whether the votes coming in come from supporters of either party. The assumption is most vote their allegience, though we cannot be certain, nor dovwe know how independents are voting.
That's a slightly strange interpretation. Big rise in all absentee ballots for all registered affiliations, the proportions look pretty much the same to me.
The dems and repubs are keeping up with each other which would make it a wash but the independents have surged from about 50k to 200k. So question is who are the NEW independents voting for?
"who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?
Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016). Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white." These are the new IPA voters only however.
Interesting. Is there a big WWC population in Florida? It could be women as well...
Florida is less white but the white population there is more non uni educated.
Certainly looks promising for Hillary. I think her ground game is going to be worth a couple of points in some states too. I think the more you look at it the more narrow Trumps options look.
The Times reporting that the EU commission is trying to resist moves by the Basel international banking committee to raise capital requirements for global banks because it would snuff the life out of Deutsche Bank and a few other Eurozone banks. At the last "stress" test the ECB allowed DB to cheat and cast aspersions on the UK banking sector. The commission is putting the safety of the global banking sector and EU banks at risk in order to try and avoid admitting their major banks are all in trouble.
Basel IV, as currently proposed, would be very serious for the European investment banks: Deutsche, UBS, Credit Suisse and Barclays. (And to a lesser extent SocGen.) There's pressure from the EU, the ECB, and the Swiss government to 'water it down', or at least have a multi-year transition period.
There are also regulatory changes in the US that could be equally important. Essentially, the US regulator is requiring that US subsidiaries of international investment banks are at least as well capitalised as equivalent US players. Right now, a big IB will keep as much of the capital at the parent level; if they are required to permanently move capital to subsidiaries it will mean they need to run their businesses with more equity, lowering returns.
Does that mean someone can now walk into a Muslim bakers, and demand a cake with the image of Islam's Prophet on it?
Or walk into a muslim baker (rather than a christian baker) and ask for a cake celebrating a gay marriage.
Oh stop muslims are often found to not be following the law and are sanctioned. Doubt Plato would be so outraged if it was a Muslim told to follow the law more like she would be saying good.
The hypocrisy on this site stinks. Defending a christian for breaking the law. Almost as bad as those defending trump supporters defending trump despite admitting sexual assault.
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
It's more likely that the individual requesting such a cake in the former instance would be reported and prosecuted for a hate crime.
That's a slightly strange interpretation. Big rise in all absentee ballots for all registered affiliations, the proportions look pretty much the same to me.
The dems and repubs are keeping up with each other which would make it a wash but the independents have surged from about 50k to 200k. So question is who are the NEW independents voting for?
"who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?
Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016). Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white." These are the new IPA voters only however.
Interesting. Is there a big WWC population in Florida? It could be women as well...
Florida is less white but the white population there is more non uni educated.
Certainly looks promising for Hillary. I think her ground game is going to be worth a couple of points in some states too. I think the more you look at it the more narrow Trumps options look.
Dems need to be careful they don't make people think it is all over and depress their own turnout.
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
Seems to be a very odd law. One imagines it would repealed if a Muslim baker was targeted.
With help from some PB web gurus yesterday, I've now got a little program which extracts the probability distributions by ECV total from fivethirtyeight.com (polls-only forecast) and the Huffington post models, which gives the following results. Note that 538 has a much longer tail to the probability distribution (it looks too long to me):
Clinton Bands 538 Huff
================================
Under 250 9.24% 1.33%
250-259 2.12% 0.91%
260-269 2.65% 1.45%
270-279 3.82% 2.32%
280-289 3.25% 2.60%
290-299 3.64% 4.59%
300-309 4.35% 6.17%
310-319 5.10% 7.13%
320-329 5.71% 7.65%
330-339 5.42% 10.11%
340-349 7.43% 19.77%
350-359 8.81% 17.98%
360-369 7.14% 7.01%
370-379 5.74% 4.24%
380-389 4.10% 2.69%
390-399 3.56% 1.71%
400 or over 17.95% 2.34%
================================
Prob Clinton win 86.00% 96.31%
Implied fair value for spreads markets:
Clinton ECVs 340.6 336.5
Clinton 270-up 76.5 67.2
Clinton 300-up 52.4 39.5
Clinton 330-up 32.0 16.5
Trump 270-up 5.8 7
Trump 300-up 2.7 1
Trump 330-up 1.2 0
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
Seems to be a very odd law. One imagines it would repealed if a Muslim baker was targeted.
Rubbish.
I'm sure you thought the police turning a blind eye to the gang rapes in Rotherham was also "rubbish" when The Times reported it all those years ago.
That's a slightly strange interpretation. Big rise in all absentee ballots for all registered affiliations, the proportions look pretty much the same to me.
The dems and repubs are keeping up with each other which would make it a wash but the independents have surged from about 50k to 200k. So question is who are the NEW independents voting for?
"who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?
Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016). Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white." These are the new IPA voters only however.
Interesting. Is there a big WWC population in Florida? It could be women as well...
Florida is less white but the white population there is more non uni educated.
It's difficult to discern much from the early returns. I assume nothing is counted till polls close on election day ?
We do know whether the voter is a registered Democrat/Republican/Independent and quite a lot of demographics. These do not point to shy Trumpers, and registration is closed in nearly all states.
I suppose to be fair to Trump, the hope is that people who don't usually vote will turn out, and these aren't likely to be either registered Republicans or early voters.
That's a slightly strange interpretation. Big rise in all absentee ballots for all registered affiliations, the proportions look pretty much the same to me.
The dems and repubs are keeping up with each other which would make it a wash but the independents have surged from about 50k to 200k. So question is who are the NEW independents voting for?
"who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?
Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016). Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white." These are the new IPA voters only however.
Interesting. Is there a big WWC population in Florida? It could be women as well...
Florida is less white but the white population there is more non uni educated.
Certainly looks promising for Hillary. I think her ground game is going to be worth a couple of points in some states too. I think the more you look at it the more narrow Trumps options look.
Dems need to be careful they don't make people think it is all over and depress their own turnout.
One suspects the DNC has a Halloween scare story ready to keep up the motivation
I've been trying to do something similar myself without much success. Is there a way to scrape 538 probabilities into excel?
I did it by copying the page source for the ECV probability histogram, where each bar is of the form:
x1="768.9018518518518" x2="768.9018518518518" y1="130" y2="120.16806722689074" class="bar D win"
The height of the bar is y2-y1 and the bars are in ECV order 0 to 538. I wrote a little program to munge this into the probability by ECV value.
I'll update my post here from time to time anyway, but if you'd like the raw figures send me a Vanilla mail with an email address and I'll send them to you.
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
Seems to be a very odd law. One imagines it would repealed if a Muslim baker was targeted.
Rubbish.
I'm sure you thought the police turning a blind eye to the gang rapes in Rotherham was also "rubbish" when The Times reported it all those years ago.
And what about Jimmy savvile et al is he Muslim too? The police turned a bold eye to that aswell.
With help from some PB web gurus yesterday, I've now got a little program which extracts the probability distributions by ECV total from fivethirtyeight.com (polls-only forecast) and the Huffington post models, which gives the following results. Note that 538 has a much longer tail to the probability distribution (it looks too long to me):
He does argue that a fatter-tailed t distribution is appropriate rather than a normal distribution, doesn't he?
The hypocrisy on this site stinks. Defending a christian for breaking the law. Almost as bad as those defending trump supporters defending trump despite admitting sexual assault.
For one thing, this is a civil case we're commenting on, not a matter of criminal law. For another, legal opinions on the case differed (the Attorney General of Northern Ireland agreed with the appellants). And finally, we're all entitled to have a view on what the law *ought* to be, as opposed to what the law *is*.
Maryland might be a slightly better 85.0 lay, because it will be called for the Democrats as soon as the polls have closed (And it is East coast). So if Betfair settle the market, you'll get the cash back to pile onto "The winner" or other states still in play...
- A currency fall of 10% affects imports, it does not make everyone 10% poorer. - The £4,300 figure was for 2030, the currency will have risen again by then - its value now is partly down to uncertainty.
That's a very interesting thought. A 10% devaluation in currency doesn't make everyone using that currency 10% poorer.
I'm not an economist but how exactly does that work? I need to know because if you're right Barclays bank in Nice have just chisseled me!
It makes imports more expensive, but imports are less than 30% of GDP. It doesn't affect purely domestic trade. Since most trade is domestic, they are unaffected directly and it actually leads to a less than 3% increase in costs - much of which will be absorbed by businesses (including exporters outside the UK) etc so now you're talking potentially a 2% variance not a 10% one.
Furthermore since imports have become 10% more expensive while exports to the rest of the globe have become 10% cheaper we get a doubled up bonus of boosting exports while potentially substituting exports for domestic production. These twin positives both create growth.
If growth exceeds the 2-3% (max) variance in prices then we are richer not poorer.
With help from some PB web gurus yesterday, I've now got a little program which extracts the probability distributions by ECV total from fivethirtyeight.com (polls-only forecast) and the Huffington post models, which gives the following results. Note that 538 has a much longer tail to the probability distribution (it looks too long to me):
He does argue that a fatter-tailed t distribution is appropriate rather than a normal distribution, doesn't he?
Yes, he does, and I agree with him early on in the contest. But I've been surprised in the past, and I'm surprised now, that his forecasts don't narrow down more as the election approaches. 17.95% for Clinton over 400, for example, doesn't look right at this stage.
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
Seems to be a very odd law. One imagines it would repealed if a Muslim baker was targeted.
Rubbish.
I'm sure you thought the police turning a blind eye to the gang rapes in Rotherham was also "rubbish" when The Times reported it all those years ago.
And what about Jimmy savvile et al is he Muslim too?
Different case and both have the same root cause of being a protected class. Muslims, celebrities and, until recently, the clergy got away with rape and sexual abuse because they are a protected class. Same as Trump, Bill Clinton and Bill Cosby in the US.
With help from some PB web gurus yesterday, I've now got a little program which extracts the probability distributions by ECV total from fivethirtyeight.com (polls-only forecast) and the Huffington post models, which gives the following results. Note that 538 has a much longer tail to the probability distribution (it looks too long to me):
He does argue that a fatter-tailed t distribution is appropriate rather than a normal distribution, doesn't he?
Yes, he does, and I agree with him early on in the contest. But I've been surprised in the past, and I'm surprised now, that his forecasts don't narrow down more as the election approaches. 17.95% for Clinton over 400, for example, doesn't look right at this stage.
With help from some PB web gurus yesterday, I've now got a little program which extracts the probability distributions by ECV total from fivethirtyeight.com (polls-only forecast) and the Huffington post models, which gives the following results. Note that 538 has a much longer tail to the probability distribution (it looks too long to me):
He does argue that a fatter-tailed t distribution is appropriate rather than a normal distribution, doesn't he?
Yes, he does, and I agree with him early on in the contest. But I've been surprised in the past, and I'm surprised now, that his forecasts don't narrow down more as the election approaches. 17.95% for Clinton over 400, for example, doesn't look right at this stage.
- A currency fall of 10% affects imports, it does not make everyone 10% poorer. - The £4,300 figure was for 2030, the currency will have risen again by then - its value now is partly down to uncertainty.
That's a very interesting thought. A 10% devaluation in currency doesn't make everyone using that currency 10% poorer.
I'm not an economist but how exactly does that work? I need to know because if you're right Barclays bank in Nice have just chisseled me!
Presumably not all of your assets are in cash; If you've got stocks then they'll rise in the devalued currency so as to be down less or not at all in real money.
Your income will drop 10% assuming you get paid in the devalued currency, but if the person paying you is ultimately spending hard currency then you may be able to negotiate a higher rate.
The hypocrisy on this site stinks. Defending a christian for breaking the law. Almost as bad as those defending trump supporters defending trump despite admitting sexual assault.
For one thing, this is a civil case we're commenting on, not a matter of criminal law. For another, legal opinions on the case differed (the Attorney General of Northern Ireland agreed with the appellants). And finally, we're all entitled to have a view on what the law *ought* to be, as opposed to what the law *is*.
Of course people are allowed to have a view on what the law ought to be they don't need to make spurious claims of unfair treatment based on anectodes.
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
Seems to be a very odd law. One imagines it would repealed if a Muslim baker was targeted.
Rubbish.
I'm sure you thought the police turning a blind eye to the gang rapes in Rotherham was also "rubbish" when The Times reported it all those years ago.
And what about Jimmy savvile et al is he Muslim too? The police turned a bold eye to that aswell.
With help from some PB web gurus yesterday, I've now got a little program which extracts the probability distributions by ECV total from fivethirtyeight.com (polls-only forecast) and the Huffington post models, which gives the following results. Note that 538 has a much longer tail to the probability distribution (it looks too long to me):
He does argue that a fatter-tailed t distribution is appropriate rather than a normal distribution, doesn't he?
Yes, the site says this is because there's not much data, so can't be sure about tails. The model is built from 11 modern US elections.
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
Seems to be a very odd law. One imagines it would repealed if a Muslim baker was targeted.
Rubbish.
I'm sure you thought the police turning a blind eye to the gang rapes in Rotherham was also "rubbish" when The Times reported it all those years ago.
And what about Jimmy savvile et al is he Muslim too?
Different case and both have the same root cause of being a protected class. Muslims, celebrities and, until recently, the clergy got away with rape and sexual abuse because they are a protected class. Same as Trump, Bill Clinton and Bill Cosby in the US.
Muslims are not a protected class, I can tell u that for nothing.
The hypocrisy on this site stinks. Defending a christian for breaking the law. Almost as bad as those defending trump supporters defending trump despite admitting sexual assault.
You may enjoy this from the twittersphere. It seems to be one that Plato missed:
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
Seems to be a very odd law. One imagines it would repealed if a Muslim baker was targeted.
Rubbish.
I'm sure you thought the police turning a blind eye to the gang rapes in Rotherham was also "rubbish" when The Times reported it all those years ago.
And what about Jimmy savvile et al is he Muslim too?
Different case and both have the same root cause of being a protected class. Muslims, celebrities and, until recently, the clergy got away with rape and sexual abuse because they are a protected class. Same as Trump, Bill Clinton and Bill Cosby in the US.
Muslims are not a protected class, I can tell u that for nothing.
And yet Muslim men got away with mass gang rapes of white girls in northern cities for years while the police turned a blind eye. There is even some evidence that it has continued despite the comprehensive and damning report by Professor Alexis Jay.
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
Seems to be a very odd law. One imagines it would repealed if a Muslim baker was targeted.
Rubbish.
I'm sure you thought the police turning a blind eye to the gang rapes in Rotherham was also "rubbish" when The Times reported it all those years ago.
And what about Jimmy savvile et al is he Muslim too?
Different case and both have the same root cause of being a protected class. Muslims, celebrities and, until recently, the clergy got away with rape and sexual abuse because they are a protected class. Same as Trump, Bill Clinton and Bill Cosby in the US.
Muslims are not a protected class, I can tell u that for nothing.
And yet Muslim men got away with mass gang rapes of white girls in northern cities for years while the police turned a blind eye. There is even some evidence that it has continued despite the comprehensive and damning report by Professor Alexis Jay.
The hypocrisy on this site stinks. Defending a christian for breaking the law. Almost as bad as those defending trump supporters defending trump despite admitting sexual assault.
With help from some PB web gurus yesterday, I've now got a little program which extracts the probability distributions by ECV total from fivethirtyeight.com (polls-only forecast) and the Huffington post models, which gives the following results. Note that 538 has a much longer tail to the probability distribution (it looks too long to me):
He does argue that a fatter-tailed t distribution is appropriate rather than a normal distribution, doesn't he?
Yes, he does, and I agree with him early on in the contest. But I've been surprised in the past, and I'm surprised now, that his forecasts don't narrow down more as the election approaches. 17.95% for Clinton over 400, for example, doesn't look right at this stage.
Do you think it is higher or lower ?
Much lower.
I've temporarily changed my avatar to show my estimated probability of Brexit based on the polls from about a month out to the event.
It is a big difference with Trump, the same analysis would not show him at 50%+ probability to win with the polls at any point thus far.
If Trump wins, it is one of the biggest polling disasters of all time.
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
Seems to be a very odd law. One imagines it would repealed if a Muslim baker was targeted.
Rubbish.
I'm sure you thought the police turning a blind eye to the gang rapes in Rotherham was also "rubbish" when The Times reported it all those years ago.
And what about Jimmy savvile et al is he Muslim too?
Different case and both have the same root cause of being a protected class. Muslims, celebrities and, until recently, the clergy got away with rape and sexual abuse because they are a protected class. Same as Trump, Bill Clinton and Bill Cosby in the US.
Muslims are not a protected class, I can tell u that for nothing.
And yet Muslim men got away with mass gang rapes of white girls in northern cities for years while the police turned a blind eye. There is even some evidence that it has continued despite the comprehensive and damning report by Professor Alexis Jay.
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
Seems to be a very odd law. One imagines it would repealed if a Muslim baker was targeted.
Rubbish.
I'm sure you thought the police turning a blind eye to the gang rapes in Rotherham was also "rubbish" when The Times reported it all those years ago.
And what about Jimmy savvile et al is he Muslim too?
Different case and both have the same root cause of being a protected class. Muslims, celebrities and, until recently, the clergy got away with rape and sexual abuse because they are a protected class. Same as Trump, Bill Clinton and Bill Cosby in the US.
Muslims are not a protected class, I can tell u that for nothing.
And yet Muslim men got away with mass gang rapes of white girls in northern cities for years while the police turned a blind eye. There is even some evidence that it has continued despite the comprehensive and damning report by Professor Alexis Jay.
Maybe Muslim in name only.
Quaker-in-name-only child rape gangs are thin on the ground.
With help from some PB web gurus yesterday, I've now got a little program which extracts the probability distributions by ECV total from fivethirtyeight.com (polls-only forecast) and the Huffington post models, which gives the following results. Note that 538 has a much longer tail to the probability distribution (it looks too long to me):
He does argue that a fatter-tailed t distribution is appropriate rather than a normal distribution, doesn't he?
Yes, he does, and I agree with him early on in the contest. But I've been surprised in the past, and I'm surprised now, that his forecasts don't narrow down more as the election approaches. 17.95% for Clinton over 400, for example, doesn't look right at this stage.
Do you think it is higher or lower ?
Much lower.
I've temporarily changed my avatar to show my estimated probability of Brexit based on the polls from about a month out to the event.
It is a big difference with Trump, the same analysis would not show him at 50%+ probability to win with the polls at any point thus far.
If Trump wins, it is one of the biggest polling disasters of all time.
and also one of the biggest disasters of all time.
I've been trying to do something similar myself without much success. Is there a way to scrape 538 probabilities into excel?
I did it by copying the page source for the ECV probability histogram, where each bar is of the form:
x1="768.9018518518518" x2="768.9018518518518" y1="130" y2="120.16806722689074" class="bar D win"
The height of the bar is y2-y1 and the bars are in ECV order 0 to 538. I wrote a little program to munge this into the probability by ECV value.
I'll update my post here from time to time anyway, but if you'd like the raw figures send me a Vanilla mail with an email address and I'll send them to you.
Thanks I didn't realise the actual ECV data used in the image was in the page source.
That helps bigly.
What doesn't help (in hindsight) is having a bloody politics degree instead of stats/compsci...
That's a slightly strange interpretation. Big rise in all absentee ballots for all registered affiliations, the proportions look pretty much the same to me.
The dems and repubs are keeping up with each other which would make it a wash but the independents have surged from about 50k to 200k. So question is who are the NEW independents voting for?
"who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?
Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016). Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white." These are the new IPA voters only however.
Interesting. Is there a big WWC population in Florida? It could be women as well...
Florida is less white but the white population there is more non uni educated.
It's difficult to discern much from the early returns. I assume nothing is counted till polls close on election day ?
We do know whether the voter is a registered Democrat/Republican/Independent and quite a lot of demographics. These do not point to shy Trumpers, and registration is closed in nearly all states.
Rasmussen has Trump winning 15% of Democrats, more than the 11% of Republicans Hillary is winning. If white, blue collar Democrats vote for Trump in a way they have not done for any Republican candidate since Reagan then party ID of voters is of little use
With help from some PB web gurus yesterday, I've now got a little program which extracts the probability distributions by ECV total from fivethirtyeight.com (polls-only forecast) and the Huffington post models, which gives the following results. Note that 538 has a much longer tail to the probability distribution (it looks too long to me):
He does argue that a fatter-tailed t distribution is appropriate rather than a normal distribution, doesn't he?
Yes, he does, and I agree with him early on in the contest. But I've been surprised in the past, and I'm surprised now, that his forecasts don't narrow down more as the election approaches. 17.95% for Clinton over 400, for example, doesn't look right at this stage.
Do you think it is higher or lower ?
Much lower.
I've temporarily changed my avatar to show my estimated probability of Brexit based on the polls from about a month out to the event.
It is a big difference with Trump, the same analysis would not show him at 50%+ probability to win with the polls at any point thus far.
If Trump wins, it is one of the biggest polling disasters of all time.
and also one of the biggest disasters of all time.
Should a Muslim baker be legally obliged to bake Cakes with " Ban new Mosque building " on them ? Is " 9/11 is a lie " a political belief ? If it is would a bereaved relative of a victim have to bake a cake with it on ? And so on and so on.
In Northern Ireland at least, the Muslim baker or bereaved relative would just have to suck it up.
Seems to be a very odd law. One imagines it would repealed if a Muslim baker was targeted.
Rubbish.
I'm sure you thought the police turning a blind eye to the gang rapes in Rotherham was also "rubbish" when The Times reported it all those years ago.
And what about Jimmy savvile et al is he Muslim too?
Different case and both have the same root cause of being a protected class. Muslims, celebrities and, until recently, the clergy got away with rape and sexual abuse because they are a protected class. Same as Trump, Bill Clinton and Bill Cosby in the US.
Muslims are not a protected class, I can tell u that for nothing.
And yet Muslim men got away with mass gang rapes of white girls in northern cities for years while the police turned a blind eye. There is even some evidence that it has continued despite the comprehensive and damning report by Professor Alexis Jay.
Maybe Muslim in name only.
Just because you don't like their actions it doesn't mean they aren't Muslim. I've been through this many times but until Islam gives infidels/unbelievers the same value as Muslim people this is going to keep on going. It's an issue where the cause is written into Islamic teachings and Muslims are/were a protected class meaning the criminal activity goes unpunished. I believe at last count a Muslim male was valued at 10x that of a Christian or Jewish woman and about 25x that of a Hindu/Buddhist woman.
Still, let's ignore the problem and say Islam has no problems with non-Muslims and it is "the religion of peace".
Comments
https://mobile.twitter.com/electionsmith/status/790349737341751296/photo/1
https://mobile.twitter.com/electionsmith/status/790393463506206720/photo/2
If there is a severe economic downturn, for any reason, then Brexit will be endangered. It might be caused by $150 oil, it might be caused by a property downturn, it might be caused by an investment collapse, it might be caused by an even greater run on sterling.
I don't think it's likely (although I am more negative on the economic outlook than I was two months ago), but it is possible.
Another thing: we will be able to pause or withdraw from Article 50 at any point. The other EU members would be pathetically glad to tell their voters that the UK had seen the light, plus they wouldn't have to reach into their pockets to make up our shortfall.
Again, to repeat, all I'm saying is that there's a small - but real - risk that Brexit gets derailed for some reason. And the most likely reason is a serious recession.
The cake case is interesting.
Does that mean someone can now walk into a Muslim bakers, and demand a cake with the image of Islam's Prophet on it?
"who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?
Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016). Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white." These are the new IPA voters only however.
Mr. Sandpit, I think Hamilton had been practising [to be finickity, it takes an S when used as a verb] before Singapore too.
Looks like my initial claim its good for Trump doesn't stand up as you have to read the whole article
https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/22/another-electionsmith-exclusive/
You could see those lunatics at Britain First doing something like that.
LEAVE will have deliberately used a provocatively high number on the bus to ensure that REMAIN spent their time raising the issue by challenging the amount.
So LEAVE did a good job in getting REMAIN to keep raising the issue LEAVE wanted to talk about - regardless of the actual amount. Genius.
"Renault driver Jolyon Palmer was disappointed that his team-mate Kevin Magnussen was not asked to move over for him with the pair challenging for the podium in Austin. (Autosport)"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37748941
If returns are up heavily in the Dade area, then that is good for Hillary. Similiary if returns are up from the pan handle/Pensacola - Jacksonville stretch then you'd think it would favour Trump.
On the day turnout for those two areas could well be indicative, Philly vs rural PA is perhaps an even more critical canary in the coalmine, mind.
Is this really the momentous event they're portraying it to be?
I'm sure the muslim baker could legitimately argue his life and business were in serious danger if he carried out such a request.
The practices of the religion of peace are sometimes guarded by....er....the threat of violence.
I'm not an economist but how exactly does that work? I need to know because if you're right Barclays bank in Nice have just chisseled me!
Clinton Bands 538 Huff ================================ Under 250 9.24% 1.33% 250-259 2.12% 0.91% 260-269 2.65% 1.45% 270-279 3.82% 2.32% 280-289 3.25% 2.60% 290-299 3.64% 4.59% 300-309 4.35% 6.17% 310-319 5.10% 7.13% 320-329 5.71% 7.65% 330-339 5.42% 10.11% 340-349 7.43% 19.77% 350-359 8.81% 17.98% 360-369 7.14% 7.01% 370-379 5.74% 4.24% 380-389 4.10% 2.69% 390-399 3.56% 1.71% 400 or over 17.95% 2.34% ================================ Prob Clinton win 86.00% 96.31% Implied fair value for spreads markets: Clinton ECVs 340.6 336.5 Clinton 270-up 76.5 67.2 Clinton 300-up 52.4 39.5 Clinton 330-up 32.0 16.5 Trump 270-up 5.8 7 Trump 300-up 2.7 1 Trump 330-up 1.2 0Source here:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/president
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
It is for BBC reporters. They are always keen to visit France rather than middle eastern trouble spots.
Mr. Anorak, there were two propaganda pieces at the start of the BBC News at Ten. After the broadcast by the Jungle's Ambassador to the BBC, Fergal Keane[sp] had a piece.
I especially enjoyed his lamentation nothing could be done about migration, just a few minutes after stating that migration into/via the Balkans had fallen from 200,000 to under 2,000 after walls/fences were put up.
Judging by the way they describe Calais, they can;t really seem to tell the difference.
Nabavi preparing to turn Lib Dem.
For the record, I accept this is an important event, but not one that requires minute-by-minute updates and breathless ground-zero reporting.
translators"child" migrants. It doesn't take a genius to work out what their agenda might be.http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-memo-details-get-out-the-vote-plan-election-advantages-in-fla-106651
...... Mohammed must go to the Royaume-Uni.
Trump 270-up 5.8 0.7 Trump 300-up 2.7 0.1 Trump 330-up 1.2 0.0Ahem.
There are also regulatory changes in the US that could be equally important. Essentially, the US regulator is requiring that US subsidiaries of international investment banks are at least as well capitalised as equivalent US players. Right now, a big IB will keep as much of the capital at the parent level; if they are required to permanently move capital to subsidiaries it will mean they need to run their businesses with more equity, lowering returns.
I am willing to put up the money. (I'm kind like that.)
Mr. Nunu, thinking certain laws are daft is an entirely legitimate (ahem) position.
I've been trying to do something similar myself without much success. Is there a way to scrape 538 probabilities into excel?
My one criticism of the otherwise brilliant 538 is that they don't make the data available via an api.
Sitting on top of a big free data pile then not sharing your own isn't cool.
x1="768.9018518518518" x2="768.9018518518518" y1="130" y2="120.16806722689074" class="bar D win"
The height of the bar is y2-y1 and the bars are in ECV order 0 to 538. I wrote a little program to munge this into the probability by ECV value.
I'll update my post here from time to time anyway, but if you'd like the raw figures send me a Vanilla mail with an email address and I'll send them to you.
Brussels rejects the EU.
Furthermore since imports have become 10% more expensive while exports to the rest of the globe have become 10% cheaper we get a doubled up bonus of boosting exports while potentially substituting exports for domestic production. These twin positives both create growth.
If growth exceeds the 2-3% (max) variance in prices then we are richer not poorer.
Your income will drop 10% assuming you get paid in the devalued currency, but if the person paying you is ultimately spending hard currency then you may be able to negotiate a higher rate.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism
https://twitter.com/abrams_doug/status/789825076078059521?s=09
https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/790517577457999872
It is a big difference with Trump, the same analysis would not show him at 50%+ probability to win with the polls at any point thus far.
If Trump wins, it is one of the biggest polling disasters of all time.
That helps bigly.
What doesn't help (in hindsight) is having a bloody politics degree instead of stats/compsci...
Sporting Index Mid-Spreads:
Clinton 325 (-) Trump 213 (-)
538.com Predictions:
Clinton 341 (-2) Trump 196 (+2)
Still, let's ignore the problem and say Islam has no problems with non-Muslims and it is "the religion of peace".