Remaoners getting a kicking on QT from Hartlepool.
It's a very Brexit town - the audience are coming across as somewhat obsessive.
It was the same in Hendon.
This is the new common ground of British politics.
Consequently, Labour are toast.
What a hate-filled audience.
They shouted down anyone we dared to even suggest we need to actually figure out what happens next.
And they booed the poor Polish woman who had been living there for a 20 years.
Disgraceful showing. If that's mainstream, we're heading straight for dictatorship.
Is that the word you use when people who don't agree with you democratically decide something?
I just call it as it is. Perhaps we were watching different shows.
Honest question Mr Walker - are you an urbanite or a rural dweller?
I think this is going to be one of the biggest cleavages in the next century of our politics....
I'm a filthy Islingtonite.
But I was born and grew up in a working class suburb of Auckland, NZ. My people are car mechanics, book-keepers, machinists.
I get it. I get the power of "take back control" and the feeling of not being heard. But I think I also recognise hate and intolerace.
I'm beginning to think Mr Meeks is right: whatever the rights and wrongs of Brexit, this campaign was won by appealing to people's basest instincts.
And now we reap what was sown. Hard Brexit - because it does not require discussion, understanding, tolerance - naturally follows.
To be honest, though, my ear is similarly attuned to the intolerance and narrowing of debate by no platforming, political correctness etc.
I suspect our bias wants us too....
For sure. Perhaps if we two can find common ground...there is a path forward. I do not remember a country so divided, though my living political memory goes back to the late 80s only.
Andrew Neil making the very good point that Leave and Remain said Leaving would mean leaving the Single Market, so why the howling....
Because the question on the ballot paper was about leaving the EU. Everything else is up to Parliament.
No it's not. Leaving the EU means leaving the Single Market, it is up to the government to sign a new deal and then for Parliament to ratify it. Has always been thus, Parliament has never controlled negotiations.
Entirely OT, but why do so many people struggle with the pronunciation of Ter-ease-a ?
Mother Te-rayz-a?
Could be.
Is that actually how the nun's name was meant to be pronounced?
Well she was Albanian, but probably became famous via an Italian speaking Catholic media.
So who knows.
My white working class persona tells me it's Ter-ease-a May, and anything else is putting on airs.
In Italian the stress is almost invariably on the second last syllable, so Pa-MEL-a rather than the British PAM-el-a. I am sure Theresa is no exception.
Remaoners getting a kicking on QT from Hartlepool.
It's a very Brexit town - the audience are coming across as somewhat obsessive.
It was the same in Hendon.
This is the new common ground of British politics.
Consequently, Labour are toast.
What a hate-filled audience.
They shouted down anyone we dared to even suggest we need to actually figure out what happens next.
And they booed the poor Polish woman who had been living there for a 20 years.
Disgraceful showing. If that's mainstream, we're heading straight for dictatorship.
Is that the word you use when people who don't agree with you democratically decide something?
I just call it as it is. Perhaps we were watching different shows.
Honest question Mr Walker - are you an urbanite or a rural dweller?
I think this is going to be one of the biggest cleavages in the next century of our politics....
I'm a filthy Islingtonite.
But I was born and grew up in a working class suburb of Auckland, NZ. My people are car mechanics, book-keepers, machinists.
I get it. I get the power of "take back control" and the feeling of not being heard. But I think I also recognise hate and intolerace.
I'm beginning to think Mr Meeks is right: whatever the rights and wrongs of Brexit, this campaign was won by appealing to people's basest instincts.
And now we reap what was sown. Hard Brexit - because it does not require discussion, understanding, tolerance - naturally follows.
To be honest, though, my ear is similarly attuned to the intolerance and narrowing of debate by no platforming, political correctness etc.
I suspect our bias wants us too....
For sure. Perhaps if we two can find common ground...there is a path forward. I do not remember a country so divided, though my living political memory goes back to the late 80s only.
Why would that happen? Seriously the opposite is infinitely more likely.
In a trade negotiation size is everything.
Bull. In a trade negotiation flexibility is everything. Besides our size is already big in its own right. Besides the US, China, EU and Japan we are the world's largest economy. The EU can't and won't sign a deal with itself and will not sign a deal with the US, China or Japan either (TTIP is dead). We might with those sign one independent of the EU.
For every other nation in the globe we are bigger than them.
The EU has a problem negotiating trade deals - sectional interests. The answer (to the EU), is, of course, more integration.
The problem is that even a generation into a future USE, the political structure will be a patchwork quilt of sectional interests. A receipe for political gridlock on such matters....
Why would that happen? Seriously the opposite is infinitely more likely.
In a trade negotiation size is everything.
Bull. In a trade negotiation flexibility is everything. Besides our size is already big in its own right. Besides the US, China, EU and Japan we are the world's largest economy. The EU can't and won't sign a deal with itself and will not sign a deal with the US, China or Japan either (TTIP is dead). We might with those sign one independent of the EU.
For every other nation in the globe we are bigger than them.
The EU has a problem negotiating trade deals - sectional interests. The answer (to the EU), is, of course, more integration.
The problem is that even a generation into a future USE, the political structure will be a patchwork quilt of sectional interests. A receipe for political gridlock on such matters....
Which major country or trading block has more free trade agreements than the EU?
Andrew Neil making the very good point that Leave and Remain said Leaving would mean leaving the Single Market, so why the howling....
A. Because it wasn't on the ballot paper, B. Because it would be dumb, and C. Because Gove promised specifically that we would still be in the "free trade zone" and it isn't obvious how else that would happen.
Andrew Neil making the very good point that Leave and Remain said Leaving would mean leaving the Single Market, so why the howling....
Because the question on the ballot paper was about leaving the EU. Everything else is up to Parliament.
No it's not. Leaving the EU means leaving the Single Market, it is up to the government to sign a new deal and then for Parliament to ratify it. Has always been thus, Parliament has never controlled negotiations.
Does it though? As has been said repeatedly by both sides, Norway has full access to single market.
Andrew Neil making the very good point that Leave and Remain said Leaving would mean leaving the Single Market, so why the howling....
Because the question on the ballot paper was about leaving the EU. Everything else is up to Parliament.
No it's not. Leaving the EU means leaving the Single Market, it is up to the government to sign a new deal and then for Parliament to ratify it. Has always been thus, Parliament has never controlled negotiations.
Does it though? As has been said repeatedly by both sides, Norway has full access to single market.
Yes it does. Norway joined the Single Market via the EEA. We could leave the EU and negotiate Single Market membership via the EEA if that is the route the government chooses to go down in negotiations and if the rest of the EEA agrees to us joining and if Parliament ratifies the deal.
If any of those don't happen though, our Single Market membership ends the day we leave the EU automatically.
Not sure there is much to add to the Brexit discussion but to me it's about the disparities. Leave/Remain in a binary referendum seems like the ultimate in Control. But as we are now discovering actually what Brexit will entail could be 10001 things. It's highly nuanced and my binary. I think that disparity is the first foundation of the continued culture war and political strife.
Remaoners getting a kicking on QT from Hartlepool.
It's a very Brexit town - the audience are coming across as somewhat obsessive.
:
Is that the word you use when people who don't agree with you democratically decide something?
I just call it as it is. Perhaps we were watching different shows.
Honest question Mr Walker - are you an urbanite or a rural dweller?
I think this is going to be one of the biggest cleavages in the next century of our politics....
:
To be honest, though, my ear is similarly attuned to the intolerance and narrowing of debate by no platforming, political correctness etc.
I suspect our bias wants us too....
For sure. Perhaps if we two can find common ground...there is a path forward. I do not remember a country so divided, though my living political memory goes back to the late 80s only.
On reflection, it simply that the Plebs have revolted against the Optimates, and the Optimates views of the Plebs are out in the open. The Optimates are appalled to find that they are not loved by the Plebs.
How many times over the years have we heard of the progressive contempt for the lower orders? If I recall correctly, on one occasion, here, a couple of impeccably right-on posters enjoyed themselves describing a group of immigrants as a all tax dodging criminals, who were too stupid to integrate. They were, of course, talking of British working class immigrants to Spain...
A number of times over the years, we have had people on the Left calling on other progressive types not to demonise the filthy degenerates who infect the country with their awful behaviour. I recall a hilarious article in the Guardian by a lady who went "native" among the plebs for a few weeks. It was so utterly Sanders of The River.....
It is going to hurt, but think on this - What was the original idea behind all the elaborate concern shown to minority groups? What was the history? Why for example, when a crime is committed by someone from such a group, is a special effort made by those of... the proper tendencies.. to emphasise that "they are not all like that"??
Just reinforces my opinion of her being a particularly dim individual.
Perhaps not quite as stupid as it sounds. If you look at the Paddington North By- election of October 1969 - and Wellingborough - December 1969 - both were straight fights with only Tory and Labour candidates. Also true I think of Bromsgrove in May 1971.
If Clinton wins there is every possibility of investigations around some of Trump's team's associations. Legal investigations. You don't want to be near it.
The second disparity is between a single day of decision, 23rd of June and the reality of years, perhaps a decade of negotiation. Ultimately Brexit won't be done until the successor FTA is done. Could be 7 years. Perhaps longer. If you have a single decisive day of destiny where ever voter is empowered then what you actually get is years of uncertainty the disparity is huge.
Just reinforces my opinion of her being a particularly dim individual.
Perhaps not quite as stupid as it sounds. If you look at the Paddington North By- election of October 1969 - and Wellingborough - December 1969 - both were straight fights with only Tory and Labour candidates. Also true I think of Bromsgrove in May 1971.
Just reinforces my opinion of her being a particularly dim individual.
Perhaps not quite as stupid as it sounds. If you look at the Paddington North By- election of October 1969 - and Wellingborough - December 1969 - both were straight fights with only Tory and Labour candidates. Also true I think of Bromsgrove in May 1971.
Those were almost 50 years ago. Times have changed a little bit since then wrt independent candidates.
Just reinforces my opinion of her being a particularly dim individual.
Perhaps not quite as stupid as it sounds. If you look at the Paddington North By- election of October 1969 - and Wellingborough - December 1969 - both were straight fights with only Tory and Labour candidates. Also true I think of Bromsgrove in May 1971.
Those were almost 50 years ago. Times have changed a little bit since then wrt independent candidates.
But in even in that era some by elections did attract quite a few fringe candidates - eg Hull North in January 1966. My point really is that it has never been universal.
Ultimately there is more that unites us than divides us. Difference of class, or wealth, or political opinion vanish in the face of God, or Allah, or "the void".
I repeat though that this referendum has unleashed some dark forces. Indeed today is a by-election caused by the slaying of an MP by a nutter who was inflamed in some way by the debate.
She seems to have been half forgotten already, but let us not forget what her death says about the politics and society in the UK today.
Labour gain Witham North ( Braintree DC ) from Conservatives
Priti Patel's constituency? These by election results really are bad for the Tories.
Browsing the ward demographics it looks like it should have been a Labour ward to start with; high proportion of social housing, low educational attainment, relatively young etc
Just reinforces my opinion of her being a particularly dim individual.
Perhaps not quite as stupid as it sounds. If you look at the Paddington North By- election of October 1969 - and Wellingborough - December 1969 - both were straight fights with only Tory and Labour candidates. Also true I think of Bromsgrove in May 1971.
Those were almost 50 years ago. Times have changed a little bit since then wrt independent candidates.
But in even in that era some by elections did attract quite a few fringe candidates - eg Hull North in January 1966. My point really is that it has never been universal.
Just reinforces my opinion of her being a particularly dim individual.
Perhaps not quite as stupid as it sounds. If you look at the Paddington North By- election of October 1969 - and Wellingborough - December 1969 - both were straight fights with only Tory and Labour candidates. Also true I think of Bromsgrove in May 1971.
Those were almost 50 years ago. Times have changed a little bit since then wrt independent candidates.
But in even in that era some by elections did attract quite a few fringe candidates - eg Hull North in January 1966. My point really is that it has never been universal.
It is pretty much universal now.
That may be partly due to there being far fewer of them!
Ultimately there is more that unites us than divides us. Difference of class, or wealth, or political opinion vanish in the face of God, or Allah, or "the void".
I repeat though that this referendum has unleashed some dark forces. Indeed today is a by-election caused by the slaying of an MP by a nutter who was inflamed in some way by the debate.
She seems to have been half forgotten already, but let us not forget what her death says about the politics and society in the UK today.
My point is rather that the dark forces were always there, just not expressed.
Lots of places round the world look idyllic from the places where Roger would be barred from on the grounds that he isn't suitably cultured and rich enough.
Just reinforces my opinion of her being a particularly dim individual.
Perhaps not quite as stupid as it sounds. If you look at the Paddington North By- election of October 1969 - and Wellingborough - December 1969 - both were straight fights with only Tory and Labour candidates. Also true I think of Bromsgrove in May 1971.
Those were almost 50 years ago. Times have changed a little bit since then wrt independent candidates.
But in even in that era some by elections did attract quite a few fringe candidates - eg Hull North in January 1966. My point really is that it has never been universal.
It is pretty much universal now.
That may be partly due to there being far fewer of them!
I am sure if there were more by elections there would still be a similar number of independent candidates.
Fourthly and finally is the disparity between Control and Dispossession. Because the referendum was framed by stories and exclusionary stories and in the end the current national story was supplanted by another story many will feel violated. If you were an elite in control it doesn't feel like you've taken back control. It feels like you've been mugged.
So imho June 23rd was a defining cultural event in our modern history. But if you look at the four disparities between how it was framed and how it will pan out it's a deeply unstable cultural event. The idea it would settle anything in the short term seems ludicrous. We've years of aftershocks until we reach the final durable Brexit settlement. Continued conflict is designed into it.
Dental tests are already being used to assess the age of migrants, the Daily Mail can reveal.
The Home Office is under fire for ruling out tooth X-rays for youngsters coming to the UK from The Jungle camp in Calais.
Ministers claimed such checks were 'inaccurate, inappropriate and unethical'.
But last night it was revealed that UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI), the Home Office agency responsible for asylum claims, already accepts dental checks as proof of age, if provided by the migrant.
Lib Dems expecting 25% - low after their big effort.
UKIP expecting fourth.
I have a lot of friends who live in the Witney constituency. Most of them have complained about the amount of literature coming through their letterboxes - one of them described as being like the scene in Harry Potter when all the Hogwarts letters arrived for Harry filling up the Dursley house.
At least one person said that he wouldn't vote LD in protest at the amount of stuff they have shoved through his letterbox.
Lib Dems expecting 25% - low after their big effort.
UKIP expecting fourth.
I have a lot of friends who live in the Witney constituency. Most of them have complained about the amount of literature coming through their letterboxes - one of them described as being like the scene in Harry Potter when all the Hogwarts letters arrived for Harry filling up the Dursley house.
At least one person said that he wouldn't vote LD in protest at the amount of stuff they have shoved through his letterbox.
Thanks to Mark Pack for this. If the LDs get 23.1% of the vote in Witney it is the best result in the seat this century. If they get 27.9% it is the best share of the vote in a Tory held bye-election since 2006. If they get 28.1% it is the best increase in the vote since 1993. Just shows how poor the resent record has been.
Hmm. If it's 25%, doing 2% or more better in a by-election than in the last few general elections won't really rank as an outstanding achievement. Still, it's a sign of life.
Labour Tracy Brabin 17,506 85.8 +42.6 English Democrats Therese Hirst 969 4.8 N/A BNP David Furness 548 2.7 N/A Independent Garry Kitchin 517 2.5 N/A English Independence Corbyn Anti 241 1.2 N/A Liberty GB Jack Buckby 220 1.1 N/A Independent Henry Mayhew 153 0.8 N/A Independent Waqas Ali Khan 118 0.6 N/A National Front Richard Edmonds 87 0.4 N/A One Love Party Ankit Love 34 0.2 N/A
Majority 16,537 81.0 Turnout 20,393 25.8 Labour hold Swing +1.7
Thanks to Mark Pack for this. If the LDs get 23.1% of the vote in Witney it is the best result in the seat this century. If they get 27.9% it is the best share of the vote in a Tory held bye-election since 2006. If they get 28.1% it is the best increase in the vote since 1993. Just shows how poor the resent record has been.
Hmm. If it's 25%, doing 2% or more better in a by-election than in the last few general elections won't really rank as an outstanding achievement. Still, it's a sign of life.
In the last general election the Lib Dems got 6.8% (down 12.7% from 2010)
Thanks to Mark Pack for this. If the LDs get 23.1% of the vote in Witney it is the best result in the seat this century. If they get 27.9% it is the best share of the vote in a Tory held bye-election since 2006. If they get 28.1% it is the best increase in the vote since 1993. Just shows how poor the resent record has been.
Hmm. If it's 25%, doing 2% or more better in a by-election than in the last few general elections won't really rank as an outstanding achievement. Still, it's a sign of life.
In the last general election the Lib Dems got 6.8% (down 12.7% from 2010)
Yes, but I was looking at which of Dr Pack's benchmarks were met. What with his being such a competent spin doctor and knowing all about expectation management, I assume he was really hoping for 30% or more.
Don't know if this has been mentioned, but I don't recall, during any of the three POTUS debates, any mention of climate change.
There has been. Clinton has pushed that button in some of her Robo bits. Where as Trump just goes all GGGGGGGGhinnnaaaa..GGGGGGGGhinnnaaaa...GGGGGGGGhinnnaaaa
Lib Dems expecting 25% - low after their big effort.
UKIP expecting fourth.
I have a lot of friends who live in the Witney constituency. Most of them have complained about the amount of literature coming through their letterboxes - one of them described as being like the scene in Harry Potter when all the Hogwarts letters arrived for Harry filling up the Dursley house.
At least one person said that he wouldn't vote LD in protest at the amount of stuff they have shoved through his letterbox.
Sometimes trying too hard is off-putting.
Normally better to focus on getting out the vote of canvassed supporters. Conservatives are good at this in the south because of their records from previous elections and having fulltime local agents which others can't afford.
2:09am Keith Butler, the acting returning officer, has provided an update.
He says the result is expected at 3am at the moment. Verification is being done at the same time as counting, so once it is finished we should have a result very soon afterwards.
2:09am Keith Butler, the acting returning officer, has provided an update.
He says the result is expected at 3am at the moment. Verification is being done at the same time as counting, so once it is finished we should have a result very soon afterwards.
I don't know why it takes them so long when other constituencies are able to finish by 1 or 2 in the morning.
In the circumstances Batley seems a fitting result. An emphatic Labour win but enough choice in the ballot paper to make dissent possible. I'd normally argue contested democracy is the best response to terrorism ( Eg Eastbourne ) but the specifics of Cox's murder where arguably even darker.
2:09am Keith Butler, the acting returning officer, has provided an update.
He says the result is expected at 3am at the moment. Verification is being done at the same time as counting, so once it is finished we should have a result very soon afterwards.
I don't know why it takes them so long when other constituencies are able to finish by 1 or 2 in the morning.
They have to fly the ballot boxes in from Chipping Norton.
2:09am Keith Butler, the acting returning officer, has provided an update.
He says the result is expected at 3am at the moment. Verification is being done at the same time as counting, so once it is finished we should have a result very soon afterwards.
I don't know why it takes them so long when other constituencies are able to finish by 1 or 2 in the morning.
They have to fly the ballot boxes in from Chipping Norton.
2:09am Keith Butler, the acting returning officer, has provided an update.
He says the result is expected at 3am at the moment. Verification is being done at the same time as counting, so once it is finished we should have a result very soon afterwards.
I don't know why it takes them so long when other constituencies are able to finish by 1 or 2 in the morning.
They have to fly the ballot boxes in from Chipping Norton.
Rumour has it that the Lib Dems are claiming the biggest swing to them against the Tories in 2 decades. – BTW, they appear to do things very slowly in Oxfordshire…
Comments
The problem is that even a generation into a future USE, the political structure will be a patchwork quilt of sectional interests. A receipe for political gridlock on such matters....
Have the Eccentrics beaten the Loonies?
If any of those don't happen though, our Single Market membership ends the day we leave the EU automatically.
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/789247970910896128
There was only one question on the ballot.
And one answer was given.
I now expect my government to deliver that, as best they can, with due regard to the security, prosperity, and sovereignty of the country.
As a parliamentary democracy, the government need to find a way of binding parliament to the course they pursue and negotiate.
End of.
It was a foolish comment.
Ultimately there is more that unites us than divides us. Difference of class, or wealth, or political opinion vanish in the face of God, or Allah, or "the void".
I repeat though that this referendum has unleashed some dark forces. Indeed today is a by-election caused by the slaying of an MP by a nutter who was inflamed in some way by the debate.
She seems to have been half forgotten already, but let us not forget what her death says about the politics and society in the UK today.
Lots of places round the world look idyllic from the places where Roger would be barred from on the grounds that he isn't suitably cultured and rich enough.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-likely-voters-arent-helping-trump-much/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
So imho June 23rd was a defining cultural event in our modern history. But if you look at the four disparities between how it was framed and how it will pan out it's a deeply unstable cultural event. The idea it would settle anything in the short term seems ludicrous. We've years of aftershocks until we reach the final durable Brexit settlement. Continued conflict is designed into it.
St Mary's (E. Riding of Yorks.):
LD: 40.0% (+28.7)
CON: 25.3% (-3.2)
LAB: 18.4% (+0.6)
BEV: 9.7% (-1.2)
IND: 3.8% (+3.8)
UKIP: 2.7% (-10.3
Lib Dem Hold
Clarence, St Albans
LD 916 (57.0%; +6.1)
Con 388 (24.1%; +3.0)
Lab 193 (12.0%; -5.2)
Grn 98 (6.1%; -3.7)
UKIP 16 (0.8%)
PC Gain
Blaengwrach, Neath Port Talbot
PC 225 (48.0%; +3.6)
Lab 143 (30.5%; -25.1)
Ind 58 (12.4%)
UKIP 39 (8.3%)
Con 4 (0.9%)
Con Gain
Strood South, Medway
Con 724 (38.4%; +3.4)
Lab 521 (27.7%; +3.5)
UKIP 480 (25.5%; -13.1)
Grn 74 (3.9%)
LD 62 (3.3%)
ED 23 (1.2%)
Con Hold
Central Sandhurst (Bracknell Forest) result:
CON: 69.3% (+6.3)
LAB: 30.7% (+10.5)
Lab hold Central, Middlesbrough
The Home Office is under fire for ruling out tooth X-rays for youngsters coming to the UK from The Jungle camp in Calais.
Ministers claimed such checks were 'inaccurate, inappropriate and unethical'.
But last night it was revealed that UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI), the Home Office agency responsible for asylum claims, already accepts dental checks as proof of age, if provided by the migrant.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3857394/Are-dental-checks-child-migrants-unethical-No-Home-Office.html
19 at Newbury, 1993
18 at Kensington & Chelsea, 1999
17 Chesterfield, 1994
16 Bermondsey, 1983 and Brent East, 2003
15 Kensington, 1988
14 at Christchurch 1993, Corby, 2012, Eastleigh, 2013, Hartlepool, 2004, Mid Staffs, 1990, Tooting, 2016, Vauxhall 1989, and Witney 2016
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Most_candidates
NumbrCrunchrPolitics
@NCPoliticsUK
#batleyandspen count has been completed, declaration imminent
http://www.witneygazette.co.uk/news/14815246.LIVE__Witney_by_election_count_and_results/
"Not long now"
Lib Dems expecting 25% - low after their big effort.
UKIP expecting fourth.
At least one person said that he wouldn't vote LD in protest at the amount of stuff they have shoved through his letterbox.
Sometimes trying too hard is off-putting.
Turnout 20,393 25.8
Labour hold Swing +1.7
2:09am Keith Butler, the acting returning officer, has provided an update.
He says the result is expected at 3am at the moment. Verification is being done at the same time as counting, so once it is finished we should have a result very soon afterwards.
Also I think Hillary brought it up in the first one, in the context of Donald Trump Is A Nutcase.
Rumour has it that the Lib Dems are claiming the biggest swing to them against the Tories in 2 decades. – BTW, they appear to do things very slowly in Oxfordshire…
Loony 129
Lab 5765
Jug 59
Labour fall backwards in Witney & Ukip crash to 5th place behind Green Party.
Witney result:
CON: 45.1% (-15.1)
LDEM: 30.2% (+23.5)
LAB: 15.0% (-2.2)
GRN: 3.5% (-1.5)
UKIP: 3.5% (-5.6)