Looks like inability to squeeze the Labour vote down has stopped the Lib Dems really competing here. Once upon a time we'd have had Labour down at 1,500 when challenging a Tory seat in a by-election.
One of the toxic legacies of coalition, the number of Labour voters who can't forgive the Lib Dems and will stick with Labour even in a hopeless fight.
They'll be in with a chance of winning seats like Witney when Brexit gets messy.
I do josh the LDs, but unless Labour get their act together re deciding whether they're Leave/Remain, Brexit could be an extinction level event regardless of the level of success.
One of the toxic legacies of coalition, the number of Labour voters who can't forgive the Lib Dems and will stick with Labour even in a hopeless fight.
I expect there's also a chunk of Labour voters who want to give moral support to Jeremy Corbyn, what with the internal civil war still ongoing.
Looks like there is something for everyone in those percentages. It was an unnecessary Byelection in fairly sui generis circumstances. Over 6 years into a Tory government a comfortable hold by 15% is a very good result for the Conservatives indeed. I expected the Labour and Green votes to be squeezed by more than that. In the circumstances they'll both be pleased not have been more effected by the Lib Dem Byelection machine. For the Lib Dems it's undoubtedly an excellent result. Any sign f life, and it's clearly that, is what they need for morale and media relavency. Clearly though it's going to take a while longer for the coalition's toxicity to wear off with other centre left voters. There were enough Green and Labour votwsa there to tip them over the edge. In a different era they may just have done so.
Looks like there is something for everyone in those percentages. It was an unnecessary Byelection in fairly sui generis circumstances. Over 6 years into a Tory government a comfortable hold by 15% is a very good result for the Conservatives indeed. I expected the Labour and Green votes to be squeezed by more than that. In the circumstances they'll both be pleased not have been more effected by the Lib Dem Byelection machine. For the Lib Dems it's undoubtedly an excellent result. Any sign f life, and it's clearly that, is what they need for morale and media relavency. Clearly though it's going to take a while longer for the coalition's toxicity to wear off with other centre left voters. There were enough Green and Labour votwsa there to tip them over the edge. In a different era they may just have done so.
I see in these results exactly why Mrs May has turned the ship of government slightly to the Port - Tories are going to lose some Remain voters in the South.
Hence imperative to get the Leave voters who were trending UKIP as well as the Blue Labour voters that Thatcher won.
The real story of the Byelection is that a Remain MP has been replaced by a Leave one. As vacancies and retirements come up the selector are will do that in a lot of seats ( and not just Tory ones ). The clock is ticking.
I did read an excellent tweet which said the tweeter was one of 72 people for whom life must have gone wrong somewhere, watching the live result on facebook BBC feed....
Biggest Tory to Lib Dem swing since 1993, which I think proves that the Liberal by election machine is as formidable as ever. Good warm up for Richmond too!
It's certainly nice to see a flicker of life in the old girl. Like a beautiful reef in a sunken battleship. For old times sake I wish the Lib Dems well in these sorts of contests. Mid Term By Elections have become part of our uncodified constitution. They are a check on the executive. Ideally we'd have a mix of parties who can credibly challenge the government in every location. So to that extent I warmly welcome the result.
However in the circumstances it's a very good result for the Conservatives. #Mayday is still on.
Some will say that it is another example of Labour under Corbyn outperforming the forecasts of pundits. Maybe the pollsters have overadjusted!
Labour have been lucky in that most of the recent by-elections, like Witney and Oldham West, are not in white, lower-middle class seats like Nuneaton and Swindon where they would do very badly with Corbyn as leader. Witney is middle-class and university-influenced so Labour don't do too badly, and Oldham West was heavily ethnic minority so they did well there as well.
Some will say that it is another example of Labour under Corbyn outperforming the forecasts of pundits. Maybe the pollsters have overadjusted!
A tenuous connection at best.
But it has been suggested post-Oldham by election - the May locals - Tooting By election.etc
PR 101 - you don't highlight 'outperforming the forecasts of pundits' when you've slipped from 2nd to 3rd. You avoid interviews for a few days.
The key point psephologically is the change in vote share. The LibDems have clearly taken a lot of Tory votes. Labour is 2% above its 2010 vote share despite LibDem efforts to squueze their vote. Corbyn critics may be disappointed!
Some will say that it is another example of Labour under Corbyn outperforming the forecasts of pundits. Maybe the pollsters have overadjusted!
A tenuous connection at best.
But it has been suggested post-Oldham by election - the May locals - Tooting By election.etc
PR 101 - you don't highlight 'outperforming the forecasts of pundits' when you've slipped from 2nd to 3rd. You avoid interviews for a few days.
The key point psephologically is the change in vote share. The LibDems have clearly taken a lot of Tory votes. Labour is 2% above its 2010 vote share despite LibDem efforts to squueze their vote. Corbyn critics may be disappointed!
On the contrary, Corbyn critics will be very happy because these results keep him in place. They're not very representative of the marginals.
Some will say that it is another example of Labour under Corbyn outperforming the forecasts of pundits. Maybe the pollsters have overadjusted!
A tenuous connection at best.
But it has been suggested post-Oldham by election - the May locals - Tooting By election.etc
PR 101 - you don't highlight 'outperforming the forecasts of pundits' when you've slipped from 2nd to 3rd. You avoid interviews for a few days.
The key point psephologically is the change in vote share. The LibDems have clearly taken a lot of Tory votes. Labour is 2% above its 2010 vote share despite LibDem efforts to squueze their vote. Corbyn critics may be disappointed!
On the contrary, Corbyn critics will be very happy because these results keep him in place. They're not very representative of the marginals.
Corbyn's internal party critics do not want him kept in place!
Something for nearly everyone! (except possibly, UKIP, TSE & the Osbornites...)
Solid Tory mid-term hold despite unwind of PM's personal vote Good showing from the LIB Dems - 'Life in the Old Girl Yet' Solid Labour performance despite the recent strum & drang.....
Everybody happy! (Well, nearly everybody.....)
Expect a thread soon "Unelected PM TMay's failure to double the Tory Vote confirms 'Poundshop Gordon Brown' meme. George Osborne awaits expectant nation's call"
Just seen the final result. Shows how much I know. I had this hunch that Labour would do somewhat better, and the LDs somewhat worse, than was actually the case. Valuable object lesson in avoiding hunches.
Now, to the next question: will the country notice, or care? I'm still convinced that the national VI polls are (largely) correct as a guide to shares for the next GE. If we are going to talk seriously of a possible revival, then we at least ought to see them scoring consistently over 10%.
My guess is that from now on, any time Scottish opinion is different from UK opinion on any subject of any significance - which will happen roughly once a year - it will be cited as a reason to go. And in this climate, eventually, go they sometime will.
I concur, I watched some of the SNP conference, poisonous nonsense would be my summary of it. It honestly made Labour look reasonable.
The only way the UK government can avoid giving the SNP cause for a referendum would be to in effect give the Scottish government a veto over everything. That can't happen, therefore the SNP will be able to find endless justifications for independence referendums.
Scotland has had its vote. It's made its decision. May just had to say 'no' and Sturgeon is left fulminating on the sidelines.
An unauthorised referendum has no meaning - Unionists wouldn't vote meaning the SNP would get a large share on a small vote but can't do anything with it. And Scotland isn't going down the UDI route.
Comments
Odds were a very good indicator of the result.
Con gain Bootle?
One of the toxic legacies of coalition, the number of Labour voters who can't forgive the Lib Dems and will stick with Labour even in a hopeless fight.
They'll be in with a chance of winning seats like Witney when Brexit gets messy.
http://www.witneygazette.co.uk/news/14815246.LIVE__Witney_by_election_count_and_results/
YOU'VE MISSED YOUR BIG MOMENT
Hence imperative to get the Leave voters who were trending UKIP as well as the Blue Labour voters that Thatcher won.
I did read an excellent tweet which said the tweeter was one of 72 people for whom life must have gone wrong somewhere, watching the live result on facebook BBC feed....
For a second I felt a little indignant.....
I don't think 1 person on PB is some, Mr Justin....
However in the circumstances it's a very good result for the Conservatives. #Mayday is still on.
deleted
Solid Tory mid-term hold despite unwind of PM's personal vote
Good showing from the LIB Dems - 'Life in the Old Girl Yet'
Solid Labour performance despite the recent strum & drang.....
Everybody happy! (Well, nearly everybody.....)
Expect a thread soon "Unelected PM TMay's failure to double the Tory Vote confirms 'Poundshop Gordon Brown' meme. George Osborne awaits expectant nation's call"
Now, to the next question: will the country notice, or care? I'm still convinced that the national VI polls are (largely) correct as a guide to shares for the next GE. If we are going to talk seriously of a possible revival, then we at least ought to see them scoring consistently over 10%.
An unauthorised referendum has no meaning - Unionists wouldn't vote meaning the SNP would get a large share on a small vote but can't do anything with it. And Scotland isn't going down the UDI route.
Just say no.