If we assume that the difference between the figures for 2015 and current Labour voters - 14% - represents the proportion of Labour's 2015 vote that has deserted to stay-at-home or other parties, then this would put their true current Westminster VI score at just a shade over 26%. Curiously enough, this is 3% below the 29% average of Labour support in all recent polls - the same polls that also counted Lab 3% too high and Con 3% too low in 2015.
I'm therefore guessing that the current national voting intention is about Con 43%, Lab 26%. The most recent polls suggest that Ukip's support *may* be starting to soften, to the Tories' benefit - which could easily get them over the 45% mark - but it's still too early to tell whether or not this is likely to be a genuine, developing trend.
If we assume that the difference between the figures for 2015 and current Labour voters - 14% - represents the proportion of Labour's 2015 vote that has deserted to stay-at-home or other parties, then this would put their true current Westminster VI score at just a shade over 26%. Curiously enough, this is 3% below the 29% average of Labour support in all recent polls - the same polls that also counted Lab 3% too high and Con 3% too low in 2015.
I'm therefore guessing that the current national voting intention is about Con 43%, Lab 26%. The most recent polls suggest that Ukip's support *may* be starting to soften, to the Tories' benefit - which could easily get them over the 45% mark - but it's still too early to tell whether or not this is likely to be a genuine, developing trend.
Of course, this theory also implies that, were Corbyn to fall under a bus and be replaced by someone more moderate and credible, Labour might be able to recover to at least 30% quite quickly, and would be back in the game (although that doesn't take into account any lasting reputational damage that the lurch to the Left might have caused amongst certain elements of their old core vote.)
Voting seems very brisk here in Witney. Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Brisk voting, one would think, would mean a comfortable Conservative hold. The LDs needed ultra low turnout to make a dent.
Brisk voting looks to me like a high level of enthusiasm - something which I would not associate with the Conservative Party in its present shambolic and demoralised state. If they can`t even get people to man the polling stations.....
Polling station telling is a bit 1958, isn't it?
Um, seriously, what's the alternative as a means of discovering who has already voted?
I hadn't realised how much effort went into Mr Cameron's re-negotiation.
I did point this out here at the time, but no-one believed me. My information came from someone in the No 10 team that I happened, quite by chance, to sit next to at a dinner.
Yes, you did. Having read that article I am even more puzzled over why Mr Cameron thought it a good idea for the UK to Remain. I can understand much clearly why he resigned, though.
The article states that Cameron and co knew this was not a good deal. So why trigger the referendum 18 months before the self imposed deadline? Cameron could have let the French and German elections take place and then see what the deal was in autumn of 2017.
To be fair to David Cameron he was set up to fail by the die-hard wing of his party who made a big play about renegotiating with the EU a couple of years back. Cameron walked into their trap by agreeing to renegotiation on their terms rather than arguing for the EU from first principles.
@bbclaurak: Translation typo - Hollande, 'I say to May firmly, if she wants a hard Brexit, negotiations will be hard'
Puzzled by that. If you're aiming for what you get by default, why negotiate hard? Or, indeed, at all?
Yeah, surely, if they want a hard brexit, you go "oh, ok then"
Well a hard brexit doesn't necessarily mean crashing out into WTO rules, it just means no single market. May could still push for a trade deal of sorts, while excluding single market and FoM, so there would be negotiations for that.
Voting seems very brisk here in Witney. Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Brisk voting, one would think, would mean a comfortable Conservative hold. The LDs needed ultra low turnout to make a dent.
Brisk voting looks to me like a high level of enthusiasm - something which I would not associate with the Conservative Party in its present shambolic and demoralised state. If they can`t even get people to man the polling stations.....
Polling station telling is a bit 1958, isn't it?
But I understand that the Conservatives are telling at some polling stations. I infer that they still believe in doing this, everywhere that they can, but are just not up to it.
They could just make KitKats smaller. Like Carney did with his rubbish new fivers.
The three-fingered KitKat? Giving the finger to Brexit?
Well at least I can now accidentally launder my money; the £5 in my pocket will still be worth £5.
Why do we dignify the term Brexit & call the group which makes up ~30% of Parliament Brexiteers? It makes it sound positive/adventurous? They're Leavers, i.e. as in 'quitters'.
I believe Little Quitlers is the current Twitter-approved term.
Do the turnout bars above include the lizards or are they hidden from official totals?
More importantly, do they include the Shy WWC Trumpers nodding along to all his pro racism and sexual assault platform, waiting to all come out on November 28th?
Won't they have missed the thing by a few weeks on the 28th?
How are the GOP elite going to stop him running in 2020?
Expel him from the party?
American political parties aren't membership organizations like British ones. You can't be "expelled" from one as you can't "join" one in the first place. Most, but not all, states allow voters to register as supporters of a particular party: in states with closed primaries this is what decides which primary you get to vote in.
''I wouldn't be at all sure of that. No reason to suppose that other EU voters don't at least share a similar mindset to the politicians they elect. ''
you may well be right. Plenty of exciting elections ahead for us to find out!
Such referendums as have been offered (e.g. on the European Constitution) suggest otherwise.
As recently as the 2010 election, UKIP only polled 3%. Indeed, it was only in 2012 that they took off. For all that Britain had long had a Eurosceptic attitude, to those only paying cursory attention, outright withdrawalism would have looked like a minority opinion.
I hadn't realised how much effort went into Mr Cameron's re-negotiation.
I did point this out here at the time, but no-one believed me. My information came from someone in the No 10 team that I happened, quite by chance, to sit next to at a dinner.
Yes, you did. Having read that article I am even more puzzled over why Mr Cameron thought it a good idea for the UK to Remain. I can understand much clearly why he resigned, though.
The article states that Cameron and co knew this was not a good deal. So why trigger the referendum 18 months before the self imposed deadline? Cameron could have let the French and German elections take place and then see what the deal was in autumn of 2017.
To be fair to David Cameron he was set up to fail by the die-hard wing of his party who made a big play about renegotiating with the EU a couple of years back. Cameron walked into their trap by agreeing to renegotiation on their terms rather than arguing for the EU from first principles.
Did someone else give his 2013 speech or did he? Cameron's fall wasn't set up by anyone other than himself.
@bbclaurak: Translation typo - Hollande, 'I say to May firmly, if she wants a hard Brexit, negotiations will be hard'
He forgot the key words "with my successor"
surely to, though? If we rock up and say "we want the hardest Brexit just wto" there aren't many negotiations at all? Unless they are going to try to force us to accept concessions?
If we assume that the difference between the figures for 2015 and current Labour voters - 14% - represents the proportion of Labour's 2015 vote that has deserted to stay-at-home or other parties, then this would put their true current Westminster VI score at just a shade over 26%. Curiously enough, this is 3% below the 29% average of Labour support in all recent polls - the same polls that also counted Lab 3% too high and Con 3% too low in 2015.
I'm therefore guessing that the current national voting intention is about Con 43%, Lab 26%. The most recent polls suggest that Ukip's support *may* be starting to soften, to the Tories' benefit - which could easily get them over the 45% mark - but it's still too early to tell whether or not this is likely to be a genuine, developing trend.
Of course, this theory also implies that, were Corbyn to fall under a bus and be replaced by someone more moderate and credible, Labour might be able to recover to at least 30% quite quickly, and would be back in the game (although that doesn't take into account any lasting reputational damage that the lurch to the Left might have caused amongst certain elements of their old core vote.)
Mr Corbyn being replaced by someone more moderate and credible is getting increasingly unlikely as the Labour selectorate changes, though, isn't it?
Mr. Divvie, you complain that leaving a union is worthy of describing its supporters as 'Little Quitlers', yet are upset at the suggestion that some might describe supporters of leaving a union as 'Little Quitlers'. What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.
surely to, though? If we rock up and say "we want the hardest Brexit just wto" there aren't many negotiations at all? Unless they are going to try to force us to accept concessions?
TBH I think Hollande was wibbling. The original French is as meaningless as the translation: "Madame Theresa May veut un Brexit dur, la négociation sera dure", i.e "Mrs Theresa May wants a hard Brexit, the negotiation will be hard".
I hadn't realised how much effort went into Mr Cameron's re-negotiation.
I did point this out here at the time, but no-one believed me. My information came from someone in the No 10 team that I happened, quite by chance, to sit next to at a dinner.
The remarkable thing (or perhaps not in the light of that article) is how little he came back with given all the effort expended. Personally I would have hoped a statesman of his statue, with the advisors at his disposal, would have been aware of what was possible (in broad terms) before going into the negotiation, but there seems to have been a complete lack of real understanding on both sides. Basically, WTF have the FCO been doing for the last 40 years that they didn't know what was possible, it is kind of their job!
Ah, we can agree on this. When I criticise Cameron for lack of effort, I don't mean he was physically listless, slumped at home in front of a PlayStation.
I mean, he failed to do the mental homework - along with his team - on what was possible, and how best to achieve it. That goes for the whole govt machine, including the FCO, but presumably he and the Number 10 team have to take responsibility for the absolute incoherence of it all.
I hadn't realised how much effort went into Mr Cameron's re-negotiation.
I did point this out here at the time, but no-one believed me. My information came from someone in the No 10 team that I happened, quite by chance, to sit next to at a dinner.
Yes, you did. Having read that article I am even more puzzled over why Mr Cameron thought it a good idea for the UK to Remain. I can understand much clearly why he resigned, though.
The article states that Cameron and co knew this was not a good deal. So why trigger the referendum 18 months before the self imposed deadline? Cameron could have let the French and German elections take place and then see what the deal was in autumn of 2017.
To be fair to David Cameron he was set up to fail by the die-hard wing of his party who made a big play about renegotiating with the EU a couple of years back. Cameron walked into their trap by agreeing to renegotiation on their terms rather than arguing for the EU from first principles.
Did someone else give his 2013 speech or did he? Cameron's fall wasn't set up by anyone other than himself.
An explanation rather than an endorsement. Politicians try to catch each other out all the time. And not just those in the opposing party. David Cameron should have avoided the trap his fellow party members set for him.
Mr. Divvie, you complain that leaving a union is worthy of describing its supporters as 'Little Quitlers', yet are upset at the suggestion that some might describe supporters of leaving a union as 'Little Quitlers'. What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.
I merely pointed out what was being said on Twitter, you leapt on it as though someone had piddled on an ancestor's' grave: obviously a sensitive area.
I'd assume the term refers to the triumphalist attitude of some of your Leave bruderschaft stomping around telling 'remoaners' to suck it up, and starting petitions demanding prosecutions for insufficient patriotism.
surely to, though? If we rock up and say "we want the hardest Brexit just wto" there aren't many negotiations at all? Unless they are going to try to force us to accept concessions?
TBH I think Hollande was wibbling. The original French is as meaningless as the translation: "Madame Theresa May veut un Brexit dur, la négociation sera dure", i.e "Mrs Theresa May wants a hard Brexit, the negotiation will be hard".
Although if you imagine him saying it with a leer and a thick accent it's like something Owen Smith would say
Voting seems very brisk here in Witney. Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Brisk voting, one would think, would mean a comfortable Conservative hold. The LDs needed ultra low turnout to make a dent.
Brisk voting looks to me like a high level of enthusiasm - something which I would not associate with the Conservative Party in its present shambolic and demoralised state. If they can`t even get people to man the polling stations.....
Polling station telling is a bit 1958, isn't it?
Um, seriously, what's the alternative as a means of discovering who has already voted?
Why do you need to know? Just blanket-contact your pledge base. No-one needs lifts to the polling station these days.
I hadn't realised how much effort went into Mr Cameron's re-negotiation.
I did point this out here at the time, but no-one believed me. My information came from someone in the No 10 team that I happened, quite by chance, to sit next to at a dinner.
The remarkable thing (or perhaps not in the light of that article) is how little he came back with given all the effort expended. Personally I would have hoped a statesman of his statue, with the advisors at his disposal, would have been aware of what was possible (in broad terms) before going into the negotiation, but there seems to have been a complete lack of real understanding on both sides. Basically, WTF have the FCO been doing for the last 40 years that they didn't know what was possible, it is kind of their job!
In defence of the FCO (not something that you will hear me say often), you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink. To put it bluntly you can put up papers but you can't make a minister read them or actually take any notice if he/she does. Politicians have a long history of ignoring any advice that doesn't accord with their view, particularly in the Defence and Overseas policy arena.
Then there is the issue, as that paper makes clear, of the power of the SpAds to control, or at least direct, the thinking of senior ministers. SpAds tend to be young, jolly clever (at least in their own estimation) but very loyal to their minister. Cameron was one himself. So you get young, clever people who have little experience or real understanding of issues and people effectively controlling government decisions.
The result of the referendum was, I think, set before Cameron came to office, probably before he became an MP. The power of that essay is not that it exposes the corrupt nature of the EU (who knew that Juncker's chief of staff had so much power) but that it provides an expose on the machinations of government today and how fecking useless our politicians actually are.
surely to, though? If we rock up and say "we want the hardest Brexit just wto" there aren't many negotiations at all? Unless they are going to try to force us to accept concessions?
TBH I think Hollande was wibbling. The original French is as meaningless as the translation: "Madame Theresa May veut un Brexit dur, la négociation sera dure", i.e "Mrs Theresa May wants a hard Brexit, the negotiation will be hard".
Sounds to me as though the meaning is much more colloquial: "If Mrs May wants it hard, she'll get it hard", or something similar.
(Edited to add: "wants to play hard-ball" sort of thing)
I don't see what's surprising about this. We see this from pb's Trumpeters all the time
You can't really defend people who call Pinocchio on the basis that Hillary didn't use chemicals to delete her emails because BleachBit is a piece of software.
Mr. Divvie, you might also recall I condemned that ridiculous petition, and the tone of the newspapers calling for people to be 'silenced'.
For someone who seemed upset, from memory, at the YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes nicknames [I only repeat them now for comparison's sake] and keen to leave a union, it seems a mite hypocritical to use Nazi-like comic terms to describe those keen to leave a union.
Well since trust in the media is running at 32% this is hardly unexpected - all it shows is that the Democrats are brainwashed into not looking for the information themselves.
@faisalislam: in Brussels Lab leader @jeremycorbyn has just told me he is inviting some European leaders for a Brexit summit in February, weeks before a50
Voting seems very brisk here in Witney. Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Brisk voting, one would think, would mean a comfortable Conservative hold. The LDs needed ultra low turnout to make a dent.
Brisk voting looks to me like a high level of enthusiasm - something which I would not associate with the Conservative Party in its present shambolic and demoralised state. If they can`t even get people to man the polling stations.....
Polling station telling is a bit 1958, isn't it?
Um, seriously, what's the alternative as a means of discovering who has already voted?
Why do you need to know? Just blanket-contact your pledge base. No-one needs lifts to the polling station these days.
Blanket contact your pledge base how many times throughout the day?
@faisalislam: in Brussels Lab leader @jeremycorbyn has just told me he is inviting some European leaders for a Brexit summit in February, weeks before a50
Daniel Cohn-Bendit, Yanis Varoufakis and José Bové?
Well since trust in the media is running at 32% this is hardly unexpected - all it shows is that the Democrats are brainwashed into not looking for the information themselves.
From what I've read on here, the fact-checking is done mainly by Democrat supporters on what Mr Trump says; very little, the other way. If that's so, the figures are hardly surprising.
Voting seems very brisk here in Witney. Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Brisk voting, one would think, would mean a comfortable Conservative hold. The LDs needed ultra low turnout to make a dent.
Brisk voting looks to me like a high level of enthusiasm - something which I would not associate with the Conservative Party in its present shambolic and demoralised state. If they can`t even get people to man the polling stations.....
Polling station telling is a bit 1958, isn't it?
Um, seriously, what's the alternative as a means of discovering who has already voted?
Why do you need to know? Just blanket-contact your pledge base. No-one needs lifts to the polling station these days.
Blanket contact your pledge base how many times throughout the day?
One is fine (and in most elections, once is as much as could be done anyway, even without committing people to telling). The amount of time you'd save in stripping out a few on the fly would be more than spent up-front getting the info.
Mr. Divvie, you might also recall I condemned that ridiculous petition, and the tone of the newspapers calling for people to be 'silenced'.
For someone who seemed upset, from memory, at the YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes nicknames [I only repeat them now for comparison's sake] and keen to leave a union, it seems a mite hypocritical to use Nazi-like comic terms to describe those keen to leave a union.
It may surprise you that I don't have a recollection of all your expressed views, and tbh in this case it wouldn't have made the slightest difference to me making reference to Little Quitlers.
I have no problem with people using the terms YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes, just the snivelling hypocrites who bridle when reminded that (in that case) as Unionists they were fellow travellers with the BNP, NF, Britain First and holocaust deniers. They also seem to be precisely the types who whip themselves into a snowflakey rage at the mention of xenophobes, Little Englanders, and newly added to the list, Little Quitlers.
If we assume that the difference between the figures for 2015 and current Labour voters - 14% - represents the proportion of Labour's 2015 vote that has deserted to stay-at-home or other parties, then this would put their true current Westminster VI score at just a shade over 26%. Curiously enough, this is 3% below the 29% average of Labour support in all recent polls - the same polls that also counted Lab 3% too high and Con 3% too low in 2015.
I'm therefore guessing that the current national voting intention is about Con 43%, Lab 26%. The most recent polls suggest that Ukip's support *may* be starting to soften, to the Tories' benefit - which could easily get them over the 45% mark - but it's still too early to tell whether or not this is likely to be a genuine, developing trend.
Of course, this theory also implies that, were Corbyn to fall under a bus and be replaced by someone more moderate and credible, Labour might be able to recover to at least 30% quite quickly, and would be back in the game (although that doesn't take into account any lasting reputational damage that the lurch to the Left might have caused amongst certain elements of their old core vote.)
Mr Corbyn being replaced by someone more moderate and credible is getting increasingly unlikely as the Labour selectorate changes, though, isn't it?
Mr. Divvie, you might also recall I condemned that ridiculous petition, and the tone of the newspapers calling for people to be 'silenced'.
For someone who seemed upset, from memory, at the YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes nicknames [I only repeat them now for comparison's sake] and keen to leave a union, it seems a mite hypocritical to use Nazi-like comic terms to describe those keen to leave a union.
It may surprise you that I don't have a recollection of all your expressed views, and tbh in this case it wouldn't have made the slightest difference to me making reference to Little Quitlers.
I have no problem with people using the terms YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes, just the snivelling hypocrites who bridle when reminded that (in that case) as Unionists they were fellow travellers with the BNP, NF, Britain First and holocaust deniers. They also seem to be precisely the types who whip themselves into a snowflakey rage at the mention of xenophobes, Little Englanders, and newly added to the list, Little Quitlers.
Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a single European super-state.
It appears the turnout at Witney is going to be pretty good for a by election. That would suggest quite a close result as the enthusuasm LOCALLY seems to be with the Lib Dems, (this is the first by election I can recall for years where they are getting cheers, waves and car drivers honking support).
Mr. Divvie, I'm merely perplexed by those who advocate Scottish independence as a good and noble thing, whilst suggesting the UK leaving the EU is due to wickedness, stupidity or petty nationalism. The two views do not necessarily appear to be bound together with reason.
It appears the turnout at Witney is going to be pretty good for a by election. That would suggest quite a close result as the enthusuasm LOCALLY seems to be with the Lib Dems, (this is the first by election I can recall for years where they are getting cheers, waves and car drivers honking support).
Why? Surely this is the most Tory of shires. What's behind all this honking?
Voting seems very brisk here in Witney. Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Brisk voting, one would think, would mean a comfortable Conservative hold. The LDs needed ultra low turnout to make a dent.
Brisk voting looks to me like a high level of enthusiasm - something which I would not associate with the Conservative Party in its present shambolic and demoralised state. If they can`t even get people to man the polling stations.....
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 6h6 hours ago Harrow, London Here's a #Witney by-election prediction
47% Cons 30% Lib Dems 12% Lab 6% UKIP
LibDems would be pleased with that.
They'd be a cock-a-hoop. It would provide some evidence that left-leaning voters have forgiven them for the Coalition, and are prepared once again to vote Lib Dem to stop the Tories where Labour is presumed to be weak.
HOWEVER... it still does nothing to explain why on Earth they are flatlining in the national polls. Very strange. And by-elections are somewhat unreliable as indicators of performance in general elections, to put it mildly. Anyway, let's see what happens tonight...
Mr. Divvie, you might also recall I condemned that ridiculous petition, and the tone of the newspapers calling for people to be 'silenced'.
For someone who seemed upset, from memory, at the YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes nicknames [I only repeat them now for comparison's sake] and keen to leave a union, it seems a mite hypocritical to use Nazi-like comic terms to describe those keen to leave a union.
It may surprise you that I don't have a recollection of all your expressed views, and tbh in this case it wouldn't have made the slightest difference to me making reference to Little Quitlers.
I have no problem with people using the terms YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes, just the snivelling hypocrites who bridle when reminded that (in that case) as Unionists they were fellow travellers with the BNP, NF, Britain First and holocaust deniers. They also seem to be precisely the types who whip themselves into a snowflakey rage at the mention of xenophobes, Little Englanders, and newly added to the list, Little Quitlers.
Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a single European super-state.
Believe in BRITAIN! Be LEAVE!
No he didn't. He had plans for a Greater Germanic Reich which would include all the Germanic language speaking countries (except for the British Isles) plus all the eastern territories he was trying to grab of course. Romance language speakers need not apply. (Well except for eastern "Burgundian" France which Himmler had his eye on for some sort of SS-state, but all the original French inhabitants would have been expelled first.)
It appears the turnout at Witney is going to be pretty good for a by election. That would suggest quite a close result as the enthusuasm LOCALLY seems to be with the Lib Dems, (this is the first by election I can recall for years where they are getting cheers, waves and car drivers honking support).
Why? Surely this is the most Tory of shires. What's behind all this honking?
Well, indeed. I do have some sympathy for the Lib Dems putting in a carnival effort and wanting to pretend that 2010-15 never existed. A decent result might remind people that they still exist. All the same, it looks to me as if Farron is determined to repeat all the Lib Dems' mistakes of the last 20 years that resulted in their near-annihilation. I'll probably say more on Saturday.
Well since trust in the media is running at 32% this is hardly unexpected - all it shows is that the Democrats are brainwashed into not looking for the information themselves.
post truth politics. The trumpters can't debate with facts, so they make them up, SAD!!
Mr. Divvie, you might also recall I condemned that ridiculous petition, and the tone of the newspapers calling for people to be 'silenced'.
For someone who seemed upset, from memory, at the YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes nicknames [I only repeat them now for comparison's sake] and keen to leave a union, it seems a mite hypocritical to use Nazi-like comic terms to describe those keen to leave a union.
It may surprise you that I don't have a recollection of all your expressed views, and tbh in this case it wouldn't have made the slightest difference to me making reference to Little Quitlers.
I have no problem with people using the terms YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes, just the snivelling hypocrites who bridle when reminded that (in that case) as Unionists they were fellow travellers with the BNP, NF, Britain First and holocaust deniers. They also seem to be precisely the types who whip themselves into a snowflakey rage at the mention of xenophobes, Little Englanders, and newly added to the list, Little Quitlers.
Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a single European super-state.
Believe in BRITAIN! Be LEAVE!
No he didn't. He had plans for a Greater Germanic Reich which would include all the Germanic language speaking countries (except for the British Isles) plus all the eastern territories he was trying to grab of course. Romance language speakers need not apply. (Well except for eastern "Burgundian" France which Himmler had his eye on for some sort of SS-state, but all the original French inhabitants would have been expelled first.)
I'm sure German forces entered Paris, and reached as far southwest as Bordeaux in 1940, and then took over the free (Vichy) zone in late 1942, n'est-ce pas?
Mr. Divvie, you might also recall I condemned that ridiculous petition, and the tone of the newspapers calling for people to be 'silenced'.
For someone who seemed upset, from memory, at the YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes nicknames [I only repeat them now for comparison's sake] and keen to leave a union, it seems a mite hypocritical to use Nazi-like comic terms to describe those keen to leave a union.
It may surprise you that I don't have a recollection of all your expressed views, and tbh in this case it wouldn't have made the slightest difference to me making reference to Little Quitlers.
I have no problem with people using the terms YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes, just the snivelling hypocrites who bridle when reminded that (in that case) as Unionists they were fellow travellers with the BNP, NF, Britain First and holocaust deniers. They also seem to be precisely the types who whip themselves into a snowflakey rage at the mention of xenophobes, Little Englanders, and newly added to the list, Little Quitlers.
Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a single European super-state.
Believe in BRITAIN! Be LEAVE!
No he didn't. He had plans for a Greater Germanic Reich which would include all the Germanic language speaking countries (except for the British Isles) plus all the eastern territories he was trying to grab of course. Romance language speakers need not apply. (Well except for eastern "Burgundian" France which Himmler had his eye on for some sort of SS-state, but all the original French inhabitants would have been expelled first.)
I'm sure German forces entered Paris, and reached as far southwest as Bordeaux in 1940, and then took over the free (Vichy) zone in late 1942, n'est-ce pas?
Has it escaped your attention that France declared war on him in 1939?
@logical_song I'd be pleased with that too. I bought both the Lib Dems at 25 and the Conservatives at 45 on SPIN and I have a bet on Labour getting between 10 and 15%. That would be pretty much the perfect result for me.
Mr. Divvie, you might also recall I condemned that ridiculous petition, and the tone of the newspapers calling for people to be 'silenced'.
For someone who seemed upset, from memory, at the YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes nicknames [I only repeat them now for comparison's sake] and keen to leave a union, it seems a mite hypocritical to use Nazi-like comic terms to describe those keen to leave a union.
It may surprise you that I don't have a recollection of all your expressed views, and tbh in this case it wouldn't have made the slightest difference to me making reference to Little Quitlers.
I have no problem with people using the terms YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes, just the snivelling hypocrites who bridle when reminded that (in that case) as Unionists they were fellow travellers with the BNP, NF, Britain First and holocaust deniers. They also seem to be precisely the types who whip themselves into a snowflakey rage at the mention of xenophobes, Little Englanders, and newly added to the list, Little Quitlers.
Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a single European super-state.
Believe in BRITAIN! Be LEAVE!
No he didn't. He had plans for a Greater Germanic Reich which would include all the Germanic language speaking countries (except for the British Isles) plus all the eastern territories he was trying to grab of course. Romance language speakers need not apply. (Well except for eastern "Burgundian" France which Himmler had his eye on for some sort of SS-state, but all the original French inhabitants would have been expelled first.)
I'm sure German forces entered Paris, and reached as far southwest as Bordeaux in 1940, and then took over the free (Vichy) zone in late 1942, n'est-ce pas?
Has it escaped your attention that France declared war on him in 1939?
No, but their so-called "offensive" on the Saar in Sept 1939 was a pathetically feeble gesture, especially given that the Wehrmacht was tied up in Poland.
It seems some of the EU countries don't really believe that Brexit means Brexit, so they're saying things for their own electorate. After all, the usual default is to have another referendum until they get the right result.
It appears the turnout at Witney is going to be pretty good for a by election. That would suggest quite a close result as the enthusuasm LOCALLY seems to be with the Lib Dems, (this is the first by election I can recall for years where they are getting cheers, waves and car drivers honking support).
Why? Surely this is the most Tory of shires. What's behind all this honking?
Well, indeed. I do have some sympathy for the Lib Dems putting in a carnival effort and wanting to pretend that 2010-15 never existed. A decent result might remind people that they still exist. All the same, it looks to me as if Farron is determined to repeat all the Lib Dems' mistakes of the last 20 years that resulted in their near-annihilation. I'll probably say more on Saturday.
Looking forward to that.
I have much sympathy with the LDs, but am dubious about their comeback. Parish seats and even the odd by-election success are necessary but hardly a sufficient condition to regain some kind of relevance.
I guess the British position now is to push for what Churchill always envisaged, which is an integrated United States Of Europe with the Britain on the outside.
Mr. Divvie, you might also recall I condemned that ridiculous petition, and the tone of the newspapers calling for people to be 'silenced'.
For someone who seemed upset, from memory, at the YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes nicknames [I only repeat them now for comparison's sake] and keen to leave a union, it seems a mite hypocritical to use Nazi-like comic terms to describe those keen to leave a union.
It may surprise you that I don't have a recollection of all your expressed views, and tbh in this case it wouldn't have made the slightest difference to me making reference to Little Quitlers.
I have no problem with people using the terms YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes, just the snivelling hypocrites who bridle when reminded that (in that case) as Unionists they were fellow travellers with the BNP, NF, Britain First and holocaust deniers. They also seem to be precisely the types who whip themselves into a snowflakey rage at the mention of xenophobes, Little Englanders, and newly added to the list, Little Quitlers.
Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a single European super-state.
Believe in BRITAIN! Be LEAVE!
No he didn't. He had plans for a Greater Germanic Reich which would include all the Germanic language speaking countries (except for the British Isles) plus all the eastern territories he was trying to grab of course. Romance language speakers need not apply. (Well except for eastern "Burgundian" France which Himmler had his eye on for some sort of SS-state, but all the original French inhabitants would have been expelled first.)
I'm sure German forces entered Paris, and reached as far southwest as Bordeaux in 1940, and then took over the free (Vichy) zone in late 1942, n'est-ce pas?
Taking over Vichy was a military necessity due to not having won the war. His plan for Europe is better exemplified in the fact that Vichy succeeded the Third Republic in the first place; France wasn't brought into the Reich (except for Alsace-Lorraine).
rpjs is right: there was no Nazi plan for a single European state, not least because it would have run counter to Hitler's racial theories.
I guess the British position now is to push for what Churchill always envisaged, which is an integrated United States Of Europe with the Britain on the outside.
Churchill said in his 1946 Zurich speech that:
"Great Britain, the British Commonwealth of Nations, mighty America, and I trust Soviet Russia - for then indeed all would be well - must be the friends and sponsors of the new Europe and must champion its right to live and shine."
Ergo, we must be FRIENDS of the new Europe, not PART of it.
I guess the British position now is to push for what Churchill always envisaged, which is an integrated United States Of Europe with the Britain on the outside.
He envisaged an integrated United States of Europe as another superpower alongside the British Empire and the USA. His vision is completely irrelevant to today's world and he would have been horrified by the diminished position we are setting ourselves up for.
Mr. Divvie, you might also recall I condemned that ridiculous petition, and the tone of the newspapers calling for people to be 'silenced'.
For someone who seemed upset, from memory, at the YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes nicknames [I only repeat them now for comparison's sake] and keen to leave a union, it seems a mite hypocritical to use Nazi-like comic terms to describe those keen to leave a union.
It may surprise you that I don't have a recollection of all your expressed views, and tbh in this case it wouldn't have made the slightest difference to me making reference to Little Quitlers.
I have no problem with people using the terms YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes, just the snivelling hypocrites who bridle when reminded that (in that case) as Unionists they were fellow travellers with the BNP, NF, Britain First and holocaust deniers. They also seem to be precisely the types who whip themselves into a snowflakey rage at the mention of xenophobes, Little Englanders, and newly added to the list, Little Quitlers.
Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a single European super-state.
Believe in BRITAIN! Be LEAVE!
No he didn't. He had plans for a Greater Germanic Reich which would include all the Germanic language speaking countries (except for the British Isles) plus all the eastern territories he was trying to grab of course. Romance language speakers need not apply. (Well except for eastern "Burgundian" France which Himmler had his eye on for some sort of SS-state, but all the original French inhabitants would have been expelled first.)
I'm sure German forces entered Paris, and reached as far southwest as Bordeaux in 1940, and then took over the free (Vichy) zone in late 1942, n'est-ce pas?
Yes, and they also established "forbidden zones" along the Atlantic coast and in eastern France where refugees weren't allowed to return to after the armistice. The eastern zone was the area Himmler (who even by Nazi standards was well past Plaistow) had plans to establish his "SS state". The actual occupation authorities on the ground had pretty much given up enforcing the return ban by the time the occupation was extended to all of France.
Also, very late in 1944, by which time most of the territory concerned had been liberated, the Nazis established two Reichsgaue covering Belgium and Nord-Pas de Calais (which had been administered by the occupation authorities in Brussels since 1940) and annexed them to the Greater German Reich. Quite why they wasted time doing such administrivia while on the brink of defeat eludes me.
But the rest of France was always intended to be a puppet state and not annexed to the Reich.
Just watched the press conference of a Trump accuser. Sounds like boorish behaviour from Trump but the over-acting was a little too much. I expected her to have been living with sexual assault for the last twenty years.
And yes, there are degrees of sexual assault. When you equate a touch on the breast (through clothes) with causing mental misery for the last twenty years, something is wrong.
No sympathy for Trump but I suspect he'd have to be a miraculous memory man to even remember. So what's the defence?
Mr. Divvie, you might also recall I condemned that ridiculous petition, and the tone of the newspapers calling for people to be 'silenced'.
For someone who seemed upset, from memory, at the YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes nicknames [I only repeat them now for comparison's sake] and keen to leave a union, it seems a mite hypocritical to use Nazi-like comic terms to describe those keen to leave a union.
It may surprise you that I don't have a recollection of all your expressed views, and tbh in this case it wouldn't have made the slightest difference to me making reference to Little Quitlers.
I have no problem with people using the terms YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes, just the snivelling hypocrites who bridle when reminded that (in that case) as Unionists they were fellow travellers with the BNP, NF, Britain First and holocaust deniers. They also seem to be precisely the types who whip themselves into a snowflakey rage at the mention of xenophobes, Little Englanders, and newly added to the list, Little Quitlers.
Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a single European super-state.
Believe in BRITAIN! Be LEAVE!
No he didn't. He had plans for a Greater Germanic Reich which would include all the Germanic language speaking countries (except for the British Isles) plus all the eastern territories he was trying to grab of course. Romance language speakers need not apply. (Well except for eastern "Burgundian" France which Himmler had his eye on for some sort of SS-state, but all the original French inhabitants would have been expelled first.)
I'm sure German forces entered Paris, and reached as far southwest as Bordeaux in 1940, and then took over the free (Vichy) zone in late 1942, n'est-ce pas?
Taking over Vichy was a military necessity due to not having won the war. His plan for Europe is better exemplified in the fact that Vichy succeeded the Third Republic in the first place; France wasn't brought into the Reich (except for Alsace-Lorraine).
rpjs is right: there was no Nazi plan for a single European state, not least because it would have run counter to Hitler's racial theories.
I was only troll..., er I ,mean teasing!
But the Reich did incorporate all or some of quite a number of present day EU member states:
Mr. Divvie, you might also recall I condemned that ridiculous petition, and the tone of the newspapers calling for people to be 'silenced'.
For someone who seemed upset, from memory, at the YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes nicknames [I only repeat them now for comparison's sake] and keen to leave a union, it seems a mite hypocritical to use Nazi-like comic terms to describe those keen to leave a union.
It may surprise you that I don't have a recollection of all your expressed views, and tbh in this case it wouldn't have made the slightest difference to me making reference to Little Quitlers.
I have no problem with people using the terms YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes, just the snivelling hypocrites who bridle when reminded that (in that case) as Unionists they were fellow travellers with the BNP, NF, Britain First and holocaust deniers. They also seem to be precisely the types who whip themselves into a snowflakey rage at the mention of xenophobes, Little Englanders, and newly added to the list, Little Quitlers.
Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a single European super-state.
Believe in BRITAIN! Be LEAVE!
No he didn't. He had plans for a Greater Germanic Reich which would include all the Germanic language speaking countries (except for the British Isles) plus all the eastern territories he was trying to grab of course. Romance language speakers need not apply. (Well except for eastern "Burgundian" France which Himmler had his eye on for some sort of SS-state, but all the original French inhabitants would have been expelled first.)
I'm sure German forces entered Paris, and reached as far southwest as Bordeaux in 1940, and then took over the free (Vichy) zone in late 1942, n'est-ce pas?
Has it escaped your attention that France declared war on him in 1939?
No, but their so-called "offensive" on the Saar in Sept 1939 was a pathetically feeble gesture, especially given that the Wehrmacht was tied up in Poland.
To be fair, it's not like we were champing at the bit to go on the offensive and were held back by French dilatoriness either. I do feel that if we (the western allies) had fought for the Czechs in 1938 or actually gone on the offensive while the Wehrmacht were busy in Poland, Hitler would be just a historical footnote today.
"Reuters reporting another woman has come forward about Trump and groping."
He touched her arm and the inside of her breast (through clothes) in 1998. So traumatic she burst into tears at the press conference. This was in public so I'm not sure how the French would treat it.
Clinton's team must be starting to panic that the idea this is completely over will depress turn-out. They are going to need some really solid GOTV on the day.
It appears the turnout at Witney is going to be pretty good for a by election. That would suggest quite a close result as the enthusuasm LOCALLY seems to be with the Lib Dems, (this is the first by election I can recall for years where they are getting cheers, waves and car drivers honking support).
Why? Surely this is the most Tory of shires. What's behind all this honking?
Well, indeed. I do have some sympathy for the Lib Dems putting in a carnival effort and wanting to pretend that 2010-15 never existed. A decent result might remind people that they still exist. All the same, it looks to me as if Farron is determined to repeat all the Lib Dems' mistakes of the last 20 years that resulted in their near-annihilation. I'll probably say more on Saturday.
Looking forward to that.
I have much sympathy with the LDs, but am dubious about their comeback. Parish seats and even the odd by-election success are necessary but hardly a sufficient condition to regain some kind of relevance.
I think without some form of PR and related reform no other party will regain much kind of relevance! The SNP in Scotland and the Tories in England will prosper from their votes being concentrated but not piled up too badly in safe seats. Labour will lose 'voting efficiency' due to southern marginals slowly going Tory, Scottish 'problems' and being unable to get much above 30%.
Conceivably, 30,000 people in about 50 seats could determine what govt. we get. That's comparable to the population of Malvern.
Nick Clegg came across as borderline deranged on the Daily Politics. Tries to argue that voters were not aware that Brexit meant leaving the single market only for the BBC to play him a clip of David Cameron, George Osborne, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom claiming that it would.
Just watched the press conference of a Trump accuser. Sounds like boorish behaviour from Trump but the over-acting was a little too much. I expected her to have been living with sexual assault for the last twenty years.
And yes, there are degrees of sexual assault. When you equate a touch on the breast (through clothes) with causing mental misery for the last twenty years, something is wrong.
No sympathy for Trump but I suspect he'd have to be a miraculous memory man to even remember. So what's the defence?
I think the point is that he does it all the time. ( as he admitted to doing). So he has no defence. He can't say he brags about it, but all the women coming forward now are liars. Hence him losing women voters.
Clinton's team must be starting to panic that the idea this is completely over will depress turn-out. They are going to need some really solid GOTV on the day.
Yes, we will soon be moving into the reverse ramping phase – scare postings from Dems and 'leaked' rumours of tight polls.
To be fair, it's not like we were champing at the bit to go on the offensive and were held back by French dilatoriness either. I do feel that if we (the western allies) had fought for the Czechs in 1938 or actually gone on the offensive while the Wehrmacht were busy in Poland, Hitler would be just a historical footnote today.
The UK was in no position to go to war in 1938 and in 1939 the situation was barely that much better. The idea that the UK and France could have conducted and offensive war against Germany in either year is laughable. There were not the troops, the aircraft, the logistics and, especially, not the mindset to do any such thing.
Perhaps there should have been but that is a different argument and one which should mostly be directed at Paris.
surely to, though? If we rock up and say "we want the hardest Brexit just wto" there aren't many negotiations at all? Unless they are going to try to force us to accept concessions?
TBH I think Hollande was wibbling. The original French is as meaningless as the translation: "Madame Theresa May veut un Brexit dur, la négociation sera dure", i.e "Mrs Theresa May wants a hard Brexit, the negotiation will be hard".
whats the excitement ?
Hollande wont be president by the time negotiations start, he's as relevant as Obama.
Comments
If we assume that the difference between the figures for 2015 and current Labour voters - 14% - represents the proportion of Labour's 2015 vote that has deserted to stay-at-home or other parties, then this would put their true current Westminster VI score at just a shade over 26%. Curiously enough, this is 3% below the 29% average of Labour support in all recent polls - the same polls that also counted Lab 3% too high and Con 3% too low in 2015.
I'm therefore guessing that the current national voting intention is about Con 43%, Lab 26%. The most recent polls suggest that Ukip's support *may* be starting to soften, to the Tories' benefit - which could easily get them over the 45% mark - but it's still too early to tell whether or not this is likely to be a genuine, developing trend.
As recently as the 2010 election, UKIP only polled 3%. Indeed, it was only in 2012 that they took off. For all that Britain had long had a Eurosceptic attitude, to those only paying cursory attention, outright withdrawalism would have looked like a minority opinion.
Surprised he didn't blame it on the dog, that is what he usually does right?
Swift has returned to us in virtual form.
When I criticise Cameron for lack of effort, I don't mean he was physically listless, slumped at home in front of a PlayStation.
I mean, he failed to do the mental homework - along with his team - on what was possible, and how best to achieve it. That goes for the whole govt machine, including the FCO, but presumably he and the Number 10 team have to take responsibility for the absolute incoherence of it all.
https://twitter.com/JorgeGalindo/status/788849292396167173
I'd assume the term refers to the triumphalist attitude of some of your Leave bruderschaft stomping around telling 'remoaners' to suck it up, and starting petitions demanding prosecutions for insufficient patriotism.
(Edited to add: "wants to play hard-ball" sort of thing)
For someone who seemed upset, from memory, at the YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes nicknames [I only repeat them now for comparison's sake] and keen to leave a union, it seems a mite hypocritical to use Nazi-like comic terms to describe those keen to leave a union.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/789117930801926148
I have no problem with people using the terms YeSNP and Waffen Yes Yes, just the snivelling hypocrites who bridle when reminded that (in that case) as Unionists they were fellow travellers with the BNP, NF, Britain First and holocaust deniers. They also seem to be precisely the types who whip themselves into a snowflakey rage at the mention of xenophobes, Little Englanders, and newly added to the list, Little Quitlers.
Believe in BRITAIN! Be LEAVE!
What's behind all this honking?
Morning Joe
https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=193&v=XRFwb8mlMIU
HOWEVER... it still does nothing to explain why on Earth they are flatlining in the national polls. Very strange. And by-elections are somewhat unreliable as indicators of performance in general elections, to put it mildly. Anyway, let's see what happens tonight...
That graphic shows why the Repubs are doomed if Trump loses.
If they swing to a liberal Repub to attract minority voters, the base crumbles away. And as I said earlier, its a dog with different fleas.
https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/789083009265700865
Or Romney, apparently!
During the 2010-15 Parliament, they lost ELEVEN deposits from 19 contests.
I have much sympathy with the LDs, but am dubious about their comeback. Parish seats and even the odd by-election success are necessary but hardly a sufficient condition to regain some kind of relevance.
"Trump accuser Karena Virginia said she was groped by Donald Trump at a U.S. Open event in Queens, New York in 1998."
rpjs is right: there was no Nazi plan for a single European state, not least because it would have run counter to Hitler's racial theories.
"Great Britain, the British Commonwealth of Nations, mighty America, and I trust Soviet Russia - for then indeed all would be well - must be the friends and sponsors of the new Europe and must champion its right to live and shine."
Ergo, we must be FRIENDS of the new Europe, not PART of it.
http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/astonish.html
Also, very late in 1944, by which time most of the territory concerned had been liberated, the Nazis established two Reichsgaue covering Belgium and Nord-Pas de Calais (which had been administered by the occupation authorities in Brussels since 1940) and annexed them to the Greater German Reich. Quite why they wasted time doing such administrivia while on the brink of defeat eludes me.
But the rest of France was always intended to be a puppet state and not annexed to the Reich.
And yes, there are degrees of sexual assault. When you equate a touch on the breast (through clothes) with causing mental misery for the last twenty years, something is wrong.
No sympathy for Trump but I suspect he'd have to be a miraculous memory man to even remember. So what's the defence?
But the Reich did incorporate all or some of quite a number of present day EU member states:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Germany#/media/File:Greater_German_Reich_NS_Administration_1944.png
Clinton takes Obama 12 except Iowa and Maine CD02, adds Arizona, North Carolina and Nebraska CD02. Utah, Iowa and Maine CD02 are Toss-Up :
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/with-19-days-to-go-clintons-lead-is-bigger-than-ever/
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/with-19-days-to-go-clintons-lead-is-bigger-than-ever/
"Reuters reporting another woman has come forward about Trump and groping."
He touched her arm and the inside of her breast (through clothes) in 1998. So traumatic she burst into tears at the press conference. This was in public so I'm not sure how the French would treat it.
Sarkozy had better beware.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-property-london-idUKKCN12K1QO?il=0
More properties to rent, and more small and affordable units.
Conceivably, 30,000 people in about 50 seats could determine what govt. we get. That's comparable to the population of Malvern.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/789131722545893376
Perhaps there should have been but that is a different argument and one which should mostly be directed at Paris.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-cityoflondon-idUKKCN12K15F?il=0
Hollande wont be president by the time negotiations start, he's as relevant as Obama.