If TSE likes the look of Paddy Power's 6/1 (actually now 5/1) against the POTUS turnout being < 50.0%, then he must surely be positively overjoyed over Betfair's 8.4/1 (8.0/1 net of their commission) available on the same bet! In fact considering that PP and Betfair are now stable mates, there is a surprisingly healthy discrepancy between the odds offered by these two in the POTUS turnout market:
Equally surprising is Paddy's boast that he has already paid out over $1 million on Hillary being elected the next POTUS, in sharp contrast to Betfair only paying out at the very last opportunity and then some on occasions!
Where do I get them at 50p each, please? In my local sweetshop they are 69p. I buy three every Sunday morning for Herself.
The White Witch bribes Edmund with Turkish Delight in The Lion the Witch & the Wardrobe. Her castle is not however Cair Paravel, I don't think, but can't immediately prove it.
Which reminds me that I must re-read the Narnia novels for about the 27th time.
Consigned to history as the PM who has made the biggest policy mistake since at least 1914.
I think Eden's Suez miscalculation was less politically forgivable.
Cameron's had graver consequences, though.
Possibly, but Cameron's decision should have been based on some kind of understanding of the country he was running. Clearly neither him or his aides had any idea how the majority of people were thinking. That seems worse for a PM than miscalculating what a foreign power might do.
Consigned to history as the PM who has made the biggest policy mistake since at least 1914.
I think Eden's Suez miscalculation was less politically forgivable.
Cameron's had graver consequences, though.
Not sure about the second sentence there, Mr. Pong. Is the UK leaving the EU based on the expressed will of its electorate graver than announcing to the world that the UK can't act overseas without US approval?
Where do I get them at 50p each, please? In my local sweetshop they are 69p. I buy three every Sunday morning for Herself.
The White Witch bribes Edmund with Turkish Delight in The Lion the Witch & the Wardrobe. Her castle is not however Cair Paravel, I don't think, but can't immediately prove it.
Which reminds me that I must re-read the Narnia novels for about the 27th time.
don't think it was chocolate covered Turkish Delight though.
@bbclaurak: Every leader who's talked about Brexit so far on arrival has said UK has to decide what it wants first before any proper conversations
Is that any surprise? My understanding is that deciding what we want is what HMG are up to at the moment and why any triggering of Article 50 is in abeyance. So is there not actual agreement between all sides?
Where do I get them at 50p each, please? In my local sweetshop they are 69p. I buy three every Sunday morning for Herself.
The White Witch bribes Edmund with Turkish Delight in The Lion the Witch & the Wardrobe. Her castle is not however Cair Paravel, I don't think, but can't immediately prove it.
Which reminds me that I must re-read the Narnia novels for about the 27th time.
don't think it was chocolate covered Turkish Delight though.
With you on that one. I don't think my copies of the books made it through the last house move.
Where do I get them at 50p each, please? In my local sweetshop they are 69p. I buy three every Sunday morning for Herself.
The White Witch bribes Edmund with Turkish Delight in The Lion the Witch & the Wardrobe. Her castle is not however Cair Paravel, I don't think, but can't immediately prove it.
Which reminds me that I must re-read the Narnia novels for about the 27th time.
don't think it was chocolate covered Turkish Delight though.
With you on that one. I don't think my copies of the books made it through the last house move.
Where do I get them at 50p each, please? In my local sweetshop they are 69p. I buy three every Sunday morning for Herself.
The White Witch bribes Edmund with Turkish Delight in The Lion the Witch & the Wardrobe. Her castle is not however Cair Paravel, I don't think, but can't immediately prove it.
Which reminds me that I must re-read the Narnia novels for about the 27th time.
don't think it was chocolate covered Turkish Delight though.
Thanks all. So the lady whose castle it wasn't tempted/bribed someone with something that wasn't chocolate covered Turkish Delight in a fictional childrens story. I am glad we have got that sorted.
Consigned to history as the PM who has made the biggest policy mistake since at least 1914.
I think Eden's Suez miscalculation was less politically forgivable.
Cameron's had graver consequences, though.
Not sure about the second sentence there, Mr. Pong. Is the UK leaving the EU based on the expressed will of its electorate graver than announcing to the world that the UK can't act overseas without US approval?
A democratically arrived at mistake with graver consequences than the Suez fiasco. PoV.
Where do I get them at 50p each, please? In my local sweetshop they are 69p. I buy three every Sunday morning for Herself.
The White Witch bribes Edmund with Turkish Delight in The Lion the Witch & the Wardrobe. Her castle is not however Cair Paravel, I don't think, but can't immediately prove it.
Which reminds me that I must re-read the Narnia novels for about the 27th time.
don't think it was chocolate covered Turkish Delight though.
With you on that one. I don't think my copies of the books made it through the last house move.
Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Telling is however slowly going out of fashion, even in hard fought elections. As phone, SMS and email knocking up becomes more prevalent - particularly in a rural area like Witney - the time saved doesn't merit the effort involved. I think the LibDems stick with it because they have the extra advantage of winning over non-Tory voters who see their teller there on the way in, where Labour hasn't bothered.
On topic: We actually have some indicative information on turnout, from the early voting statistics:
if we take a big step back, and we sort of take a look at the big picture, we'll see increased voting across the board, not only early, but also on Election Day in the Southern states. But yet, in the Midwest, we may see early voting levels lower and then overall turnout levels lower as well.
All I know is that I now want some Turkish delight.
I love the real stuff but the Fry's version is, for me, horrible muck.
@Morris_Dancer "if you end up seduced by the White Witch, don't blame me."
I think I'll take the chance. There is a stall in the market at Burgess Hill where one can boxes of the real Turkish Delight at very reasonable prices. Except that when one reads the small print one finds that it is actually made in Paphos, which as you no doubt know is actually in the Greek part of Cyprus. Greek Delight, but very nice.
Voting seems very brisk here in Witney. Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Brisk voting, one would think, would mean a comfortable Conservative hold. The LDs needed ultra low turnout to make a dent.
Brisk voting looks to me like a high level of enthusiasm - something which I would not associate with the Conservative Party in its present shambolic and demoralised state. If they can`t even get people to man the polling stations.....
Voting seems very brisk here in Witney. Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Brisk voting, one would think, would mean a comfortable Conservative hold. The LDs needed ultra low turnout to make a dent.
Brisk voting looks to me like a high level of enthusiasm - something which I would not associate with the Conservative Party in its present shambolic and demoralised state. If they can`t even get people to man the polling stations.....
All I know is that I now want some Turkish delight.
I love the real stuff but the Fry's version is, for me, horrible muck.
@Morris_Dancer "if you end up seduced by the White Witch, don't blame me."
I think I'll take the chance. There is a stall in the market at Burgess Hill where one can boxes of the real Turkish Delight at very reasonable prices. Except that when one reads the small print one finds that it is actually made in Paphos, which as you no doubt know is actually in the Greek part of Cyprus. Greek Delight, but very nice.
Voting seems very brisk here in Witney. Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Brisk voting, one would think, would mean a comfortable Conservative hold. The LDs needed ultra low turnout to make a dent.
Brisk voting looks to me like a high level of enthusiasm - something which I would not associate with the Conservative Party in its present shambolic and demoralised state. If they can`t even get people to man the polling stations.....
Shambolic, disorganised and at 47% in the polls with 80% of the party approving of their new leader. Tim who was it again ?
One of the few common features on the social media thingummyjigs I frequent is my avatar (it's Horst, the sarcastic sod who is the main character in Bane of Souls, halfway through turning into a polar bear).
All I know is that I now want some Turkish delight.
I love the real stuff but the Fry's version is, for me, horrible muck.
@Morris_Dancer "if you end up seduced by the White Witch, don't blame me."
I think I'll take the chance. There is a stall in the market at Burgess Hill where one can boxes of the real Turkish Delight at very reasonable prices. Except that when one reads the small print one finds that it is actually made in Paphos, which as you no doubt know is actually in the Greek part of Cyprus. Greek Delight, but very nice.
It is however mostly sugar, and sugar is evil.
You won't want any of my Baklava then. You can almost feel your teeth rotting.
They could just make KitKats smaller. Like Carney did with his rubbish new fivers.
The three-fingered KitKat? Giving the finger to Brexit?
Well at least I can now accidentally launder my money; the £5 in my pocket will still be worth £5.
Why do we dignify the term Brexit & call the group which makes up ~30% of Parliament Brexiteers? It makes it sound positive/adventurous? They're Leavers, i.e. as in 'quitters'.
All I know is that I now want some Turkish delight.
I love the real stuff but the Fry's version is, for me, horrible muck.
@Morris_Dancer "if you end up seduced by the White Witch, don't blame me."
I think I'll take the chance. There is a stall in the market at Burgess Hill where one can boxes of the real Turkish Delight at very reasonable prices. Except that when one reads the small print one finds that it is actually made in Paphos, which as you no doubt know is actually in the Greek part of Cyprus. Greek Delight, but very nice.
It is however mostly sugar, and sugar is evil.
You won't want any of my Baklava then. You can almost feel your teeth rotting.
I imagine that is how Kumbuka the gorilla felt after drinking all that Ribena !!!!
@rottenborough Donald Trump will be 74 in 2020, which should be enough to deter him from running for president again. That is the one small mercy for the Republicans about this campaign.
Bernie Sanders is 75 and age didn't stop him.
A rule on political office held would though.
Is that seriously going to happen? I thought I'd read somewhere there was talk of it within GOP.
I don't know. I doubt it, to be honest, not least because the principle can be applied to other offices too, which would open a whole can of worms.
I have to say, it does come across as so much after-the-fact rationalising. Comments like "There are those who argue that we should have pushed Europeans harder and been willing to demand more. But I don’t see how that would have worked better." do provoke outbursts like "But as things turned out, it couldn't have worked much f*cking worse mate!" It talks of "ill-timed developments" that were developments many months before the Referendum itself. Provoking the response of "So don't hold it then, you muppet!".
My after-the-fact rationalising? It's astonishing you got as much as 48%....
Yes. The timing was very much down to Cameron, and it felt like he was rushing it, to get it out the way.
Well I guess it's out the way now.
Of course he was rushing it. Partly he didn't want it to dominate the first two or three years of his non-coalition Tory government; partly he was worried about the FR and GE elections. Plus he believed he was going to walk it.
What a full-fat idiot. Consigned to history as the PM who has made the biggest policy mistake since at least 1914.
Fascinating read that article, even if I don't believe a word of the last part's thrust that "oh we were such underdogs to win the referendum, it's not amazing we lost".
However, the first two thirds detailing the back and forth with the negotiations with the Commission, Merkel, Rutte, Renzi et al shows the real reason: there's a total disconnect between our way of thinking and doing things and theirs. Not saying one is better, just totally different. Now, why on earth didn't it seem to occur to anyone to step back from the immediate cut and thrust and think "you know what, maybe the sceptics have a point, this is just never going to work as it should"?
The article seems to me to (inadvertently) show why a parting of the ways was inevitable. Brexit 2016 was just timing.
All I know is that I now want some Turkish delight.
I love the real stuff but the Fry's version is, for me, horrible muck.
@Morris_Dancer "if you end up seduced by the White Witch, don't blame me."
I think I'll take the chance. There is a stall in the market at Burgess Hill where one can boxes of the real Turkish Delight at very reasonable prices. Except that when one reads the small print one finds that it is actually made in Paphos, which as you no doubt know is actually in the Greek part of Cyprus. Greek Delight, but very nice.
It is however mostly sugar, and sugar is evil.
You won't want any of my Baklava then. You can almost feel your teeth rotting.
Actually that's my favourite. Well worth making an exception for.
My after-the-fact rationalising? It's astonishing you got as much as 48%....
Thanks for re-posting that link, I didn't see the previous thread.
A very long read, but impressive. I hadn't realised how much effort went into Mr Cameron's re-negotiation. Having now read all the way through that article, all I can say is that the mismatch of mind-sets between the UK & the EU is so much greater than I thought that there was never any hope of unity.
All I know is that I now want some Turkish delight.
I love the real stuff but the Fry's version is, for me, horrible muck.
@Morris_Dancer "if you end up seduced by the White Witch, don't blame me."
I think I'll take the chance. There is a stall in the market at Burgess Hill where one can boxes of the real Turkish Delight at very reasonable prices. Except that when one reads the small print one finds that it is actually made in Paphos, which as you no doubt know is actually in the Greek part of Cyprus. Greek Delight, but very nice.
It is however mostly sugar, and sugar is evil.
The sugar I get here is raw sugar crystals direct from the centrifuge, reminiscent of a rather coarse soft brown sugar but smells like over-ripe bananas. Its extremely cheap, very agreeable in a cup of fresh coffee and probably moderately healthy as sugar goes.
Voting seems very brisk here in Witney. Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Brisk voting, one would think, would mean a comfortable Conservative hold. The LDs needed ultra low turnout to make a dent.
Brisk voting looks to me like a high level of enthusiasm - something which I would not associate with the Conservative Party in its present shambolic and demoralised state. If they can`t even get people to man the polling stations.....
Shambolic, disorganised and at 47% in the polls with 80% of the party approving of their new leader. Tim who was it again ?
The next PM.... after the stock market crash of March 2017 everything changed.
I do find it funny that the EU leaders are trying to pretend that Brexit won't be discussed at their meeting except for a brief item in AOB. In reality, of course, they'll be talking about little else, given that it will impact upon almost everything the EU does.
My after-the-fact rationalising? It's astonishing you got as much as 48%....
Thanks for re-posting that link, I didn't see the previous thread.
A very long read, but impressive. I hadn't realised how much effort went into Mr Cameron's re-negotiation. Having now read all the way through that article, all I can say is that the mismatch of mind-sets between the UK & the EU is so much greater than I thought that there was never any hope of unity.
And good afternoon, everyone.
We must've read that and concluded the exact same thing just about simultaneously!
All I know is that I now want some Turkish delight.
I love the real stuff but the Fry's version is, for me, horrible muck.
@Morris_Dancer "if you end up seduced by the White Witch, don't blame me."
I think I'll take the chance. There is a stall in the market at Burgess Hill where one can boxes of the real Turkish Delight at very reasonable prices. Except that when one reads the small print one finds that it is actually made in Paphos, which as you no doubt know is actually in the Greek part of Cyprus. Greek Delight, but very nice.
It is however mostly sugar, and sugar is evil.
You won't want any of my Baklava then. You can almost feel your teeth rotting.
Next time I come your way, Mr. J., I hope you will let me have some of your Baklava. It sounds delicious. Perhaps with a small cup of proper coffee?
All I know is that I now want some Turkish delight.
I love the real stuff but the Fry's version is, for me, horrible muck.
@Morris_Dancer "if you end up seduced by the White Witch, don't blame me."
I think I'll take the chance. There is a stall in the market at Burgess Hill where one can boxes of the real Turkish Delight at very reasonable prices. Except that when one reads the small print one finds that it is actually made in Paphos, which as you no doubt know is actually in the Greek part of Cyprus. Greek Delight, but very nice.
It is however mostly sugar, and sugar is evil.
You won't want any of my Baklava then. You can almost feel your teeth rotting.
Voting seems very brisk here in Witney. Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Brisk voting, one would think, would mean a comfortable Conservative hold. The LDs needed ultra low turnout to make a dent.
Brisk voting looks to me like a high level of enthusiasm - something which I would not associate with the Conservative Party in its present shambolic and demoralised state. If they can`t even get people to man the polling stations.....
Shambolic, disorganised and at 47% in the polls with 80% of the party approving of their new leader. Tim who was it again ?
The next PM.... after the stock market crash of March 2017 everything changed.
Unfortunately should that happen it still wont be Tim, partly because he is unknown, and partly because he isn't known for any particular wisdom on that subject. If the bottom drops out the stock market it will be either Mr Corbyn leading us to a bright new socialist workers future, and whoever takes over UKIP leading the mob of pitchforks and torches, depending on who gets the blame.
I hadn't realised how much effort went into Mr Cameron's re-negotiation.
I did point this out here at the time, but no-one believed me. My information came from someone in the No 10 team that I happened, quite by chance, to sit next to at a dinner.
Voting seems very brisk here in Witney. Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Brisk voting, one would think, would mean a comfortable Conservative hold. The LDs needed ultra low turnout to make a dent.
Brisk voting looks to me like a high level of enthusiasm - something which I would not associate with the Conservative Party in its present shambolic and demoralised state. If they can`t even get people to man the polling stations.....
I do find it funny that the EU leaders are trying to pretend that Brexit won't be discussed at their meeting except for a brief item in AOB. In reality, of course, they'll be talking about little else, given that it will impact upon almost everything the EU does.
Won't they wait until Mrs May has left the room? Or won't she be there?
I have to say, it does come across as so much after-the-fact rationalising. Comments like "There are those who argue that we should have pushed Europeans harder and been willing to demand more. But I don’t see how that would have worked better." do provoke outbursts like "But as things turned out, it couldn't have worked much f*cking worse mate!" It talks of "ill-timed developments" that were developments many months before the Referendum itself. Provoking the response of "So don't hold it then, you muppet!".
My after-the-fact rationalising? It's astonishing you got as much as 48%....
Yes. The timing was very much down to Cameron, and it felt like he was rushing it, to get it out the way.
Well I guess it's out the way now.
Of course he was rushing it. Partly he didn't want it to dominate the first two or three years of his non-coalition Tory government; partly he was worried about the FR and GE elections. Plus he believed he was going to walk it.
What a full-fat idiot. Consigned to history as the PM who has made the biggest policy mistake since at least 1914.
Fascinating read that article, even if I don't believe a word of the last part's thrust that "oh we were such underdogs to win the referendum, it's not amazing we lost".
However, the first two thirds detailing the back and forth with the negotiations with the Commission, Merkel, Rutte, Renzi et al shows the real reason: there's a total disconnect between our way of thinking and doing things and theirs. Not saying one is better, just totally different. Now, why on earth didn't it seem to occur to anyone to step back from the immediate cut and thrust and think "you know what, maybe the sceptics have a point, this is just never going to work as it should"?
The article seems to me to (inadvertently) show why a parting of the ways was inevitable. Brexit 2016 was just timing.
Cameron always was a bit of a risk taker and he had been lucky. If Boris had decided to back Remain that would probably have swung it marginally the other way.
''We must've read that and concluded the exact same thing just about simultaneously! ''
I'm not sure the voters of the eurozone and Britain feel that differently. Its just the sentiment has percolated to the surface in Britain in ways it hasn;t yet in Europe.
I do find it funny that the EU leaders are trying to pretend that Brexit won't be discussed at their meeting except for a brief item in AOB. In reality, of course, they'll be talking about little else, given that it will impact upon almost everything the EU does.
Won't they wait until Mrs May has left the room? Or won't she be there?
I expect that most of the meaningful conversations will be outside the formal meeting.
I hadn't realised how much effort went into Mr Cameron's re-negotiation.
I did point this out here at the time, but no-one believed me. My information came from someone in the No 10 team that I happened, quite by chance, to sit next to at a dinner.
The remarkable thing (or perhaps not in the light of that article) is how little he came back with given all the effort expended. Personally I would have hoped a statesman of his statue, with the advisors at his disposal, would have been aware of what was possible (in broad terms) before going into the negotiation, but there seems to have been a complete lack of real understanding on both sides. Basically, WTF have the FCO been doing for the last 40 years that they didn't know what was possible, it is kind of their job!
My after-the-fact rationalising? It's astonishing you got as much as 48%....
Thanks for re-posting that link, I didn't see the previous thread.
A very long read, but impressive. I hadn't realised how much effort went into Mr Cameron's re-negotiation. Having now read all the way through that article, all I can say is that the mismatch of mind-sets between the UK & the EU is so much greater than I thought that there was never any hope of unity.
And good afternoon, everyone.
We must've read that and concluded the exact same thing just about simultaneously!
Yeas, I noticed your previous post but hadn't had time to "Snap!"
Voting seems very brisk here in Witney. Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Brisk voting, one would think, would mean a comfortable Conservative hold. The LDs needed ultra low turnout to make a dent.
Brisk voting looks to me like a high level of enthusiasm - something which I would not associate with the Conservative Party in its present shambolic and demoralised state. If they can`t even get people to man the polling stations.....
Polling station telling is a bit 1958, isn't it?
I guess that they type the results into their iPads and the computer prints of the next set of Shuttleworths. High-tech.
I hadn't realised how much effort went into Mr Cameron's re-negotiation.
I did point this out here at the time, but no-one believed me. My information came from someone in the No 10 team that I happened, quite by chance, to sit next to at a dinner.
Yes, you did. Having read that article I am even more puzzled over why Mr Cameron thought it a good idea for the UK to Remain. I can understand much clearly why he resigned, though.
''We must've read that and concluded the exact same thing just about simultaneously! ''
I'm not sure the voters of the eurozone and Britain feel that differently. Its just the sentiment has percolated to the surface in Britain in ways it hasn;t yet in Europe.
I wouldn't be at all sure of that. No reason to suppose that other EU voters don't at least share a similar mindset to the politicians they elect.
@bbclaurak: Translation typo - Hollande, 'I say to May firmly, if she wants a hard Brexit, negotiations will be hard'
Puzzled by that. If you're aiming for what you get by default, why negotiate hard? Or, indeed, at all?
Theresa May doesn't want a Hard Brexit. She wants a soft one. Her rhetoric is uncompromising however. She will either compromise when it comes to it; the EU side are bluffing and will give her what she wants; or we will crash out of the EU in a disorderly way. I would say 3, 1 then 2 in order of probability at the moment.
The remarkable thing (or perhaps not in the light of that article) is how little he came back with given all the effort expended. Personally I would have hoped a statesman of his statue, with the advisors at his disposal, would have been aware of what was possible (in broad terms) before going into the negotiation, but there seems to have been a complete lack of real understanding on both sides. Basically, WTF have the FCO been doing for the last 40 years that they didn't know what was possible, it is kind of their job!
The article supports the view I expressed then the renegotiation document was published, that it was a bit better as regards protection of the City than I had expected, but worse on restricting benefits for EU migrants. From the article:
The most successful part of the negotiation was arguably Osborne’s securing of protections for the City of London financial district and non-eurozone countries like the U.K. It was truly a remarkable package, and it meant that Bank of England Governor Mark Carney would support the deal.
The important point as far as the Brexit negotiations are concerned is that the priorities of our EU friends won't have changed. We're not going to get a good trade deal without Freedom of Movement. That's why I think the financial markets are still underestimating the risk of a serious hit to the economy (and the Eurozone economy as well).
I hadn't realised how much effort went into Mr Cameron's re-negotiation.
I did point this out here at the time, but no-one believed me. My information came from someone in the No 10 team that I happened, quite by chance, to sit next to at a dinner.
Yes, you did. Having read that article I am even more puzzled over why Mr Cameron thought it a good idea for the UK to Remain. I can understand much clearly why he resigned, though.
The article states that Cameron and co knew this was not a good deal. So why trigger the referendum 18 months before the self imposed deadline? Cameron could have let the French and German elections take place and then see what the deal was in autumn of 2017.
I hadn't realised how much effort went into Mr Cameron's re-negotiation.
I did point this out here at the time, but no-one believed me. My information came from someone in the No 10 team that I happened, quite by chance, to sit next to at a dinner.
The remarkable thing (or perhaps not in the light of that article) is how little he came back with given all the effort expended. Personally I would have hoped a statesman of his statue, with the advisors at his disposal, would have been aware of what was possible (in broad terms) before going into the negotiation, but there seems to have been a complete lack of real understanding on both sides. Basically, WTF have the FCO been doing for the last 40 years that they didn't know what was possible, it is kind of their job!
In defence of the FCO (not something that you will hear me say often), you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink. To put it bluntly you can put up papers but you can't make a minister read them or actually take any notice if he/she does. Politicians have a long history of ignoring any advice that doesn't accord with their view, particularly in the Defence and Overseas policy arena.
Then there is the issue, as that paper makes clear, of the power of the SpAds to control, or at least direct, the thinking of senior ministers. SpAds tend to be young, jolly clever (at least in their own estimation) but very loyal to their minister. Cameron was one himself. So you get young, clever people who have little experience or real understanding of issues and people effectively controlling government decisions.
The result of the referendum was, I think, set before Cameron came to office, probably before he became an MP. The power of that essay is not that it exposes the corrupt nature of the EU (who knew that Juncker's chief of staff had so much power) but that it provides an expose on the machinations of government today and how fecking useless our politicians actually are.
Does anyone have the original French of wht Hollande said ?
I don't speak french, so I asked google to translate LauraK's tweet back into french. And then I fed it into the bing translator to distil some intelligible English. And then back to google to get some better French. And so on, until they agreed with each other that the words were correct. I eventually got this;
"I mean, can if she wants a hard Brexit, the negotiations will be difficult"
Voting seems very brisk here in Witney. Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Brisk voting, one would think, would mean a comfortable Conservative hold. The LDs needed ultra low turnout to make a dent.
Brisk voting looks to me like a high level of enthusiasm - something which I would not associate with the Conservative Party in its present shambolic and demoralised state. If they can`t even get people to man the polling stations.....
Polling station telling is a bit 1958, isn't it?
I guess that they type the results into their iPads and the computer prints of the next set of Shuttleworths. High-tech.
Having been involved in elections for 20 years now, I'm very sceptical about a lot of election day activity. GOTV is important but a lot of the vote will get itself out if you've run the weeks and months beforehand properly. Contact with the right people is vital, and messaging is vital, but knowing whether someone has voted or not is really just a nice to have.
@Richard_Nabavi There is a latent assumption in the markets that it is the British attitude to Brexit that matters. That is only half of the story (and if anything the easier half to square off).
@bbclaurak: Translation typo - Hollande, 'I say to May firmly, if she wants a hard Brexit, negotiations will be hard'
Puzzled by that. If you're aiming for what you get by default, why negotiate hard? Or, indeed, at all?
Theresa May doesn't want a Hard Brexit. She wants a soft one. Her rhetoric is uncompromising however. She will either compromise when it comes to it; the EU side are bluffing and will give her what she wants; or we will crash out of the EU in a disorderly way. I would say 3, 1 then 2 in order of probability at the moment.
The other thing that stands out clearly in that article is just how little likelihood there ever was of an agreement reached with the European leaders - the Council - holding up.
European leaders have been unwilling or incapable of reversing an institutional logic, in which the European Commission, egged on by the European Parliament, has increasingly interfered in the minutiae of daily life, even as the European Council — where the national leaders gather — has grown ever less powerful on anything that does not regard the eurozone. In the so-called trilogues — in which officials from the three major EU institutions meet to hash out directives — the Commission and the Parliament often steamroller the Council.
''I wouldn't be at all sure of that. No reason to suppose that other EU voters don't at least share a similar mindset to the politicians they elect. ''
you may well be right. Plenty of exciting elections ahead for us to find out!
Mr. Betting, the earlier than necessary vote may have been because Cameron was worried about the migrant crisis worsening (or the eurozone having more ructions).
Also, the EU army pronouncements came shortly after the referendum. If their date was set in stone, Cameron would not have wanted to field questions about an EU army.
I do find it funny that the EU leaders are trying to pretend that Brexit won't be discussed at their meeting except for a brief item in AOB. In reality, of course, they'll be talking about little else, given that it will impact upon almost everything the EU does.
Won't they wait until Mrs May has left the room? Or won't she be there?
I expect that most of the meaningful conversations will be outside the formal meeting.
As any organisation operates. Like the nonsense that having worker reps on boards makes the blind bit of difference. Or collective cabinet government. Anyone who has sat on any Board of any kind will know where the power lies, and it certainly ain't in the Board.
Sadly, with Brexit, the most meaningful conversations will be held without us there. Before Brexit we would have been in that little circle of trust. Oh well. We'll get used to being a little insignificant country on the periphery. Just give us time.
Comments
I feel as though I've wandered into a rerun of Buffy the Vampire Slayer ...
In fact considering that PP and Betfair are now stable mates, there is a surprisingly healthy discrepancy between the odds offered by these two in the POTUS turnout market:
< 50% ........ PP 5/1, BF 8.4/1*
50%-54% ... PP 7/2, BF 6.2/1*
54%-58% ... PP 2.2/1, BF 11/4*
58%-62% ... PP 7/2 BF 2.7/1*
* Before Betfair's 5% commission
Equally surprising is Paddy's boast that he has already paid out over $1 million on Hillary being elected the next POTUS, in sharp contrast to Betfair only paying out at the very last opportunity and then some on occasions!
Which reminds me that I must re-read the Narnia novels for about the 27th time.
Luckily, the Brexiteers' demands have been leaked...
https://youtu.be/ga3BQWoNPq0
"It is dull, Son of Adam, to drink without eating," said the Queen presently. "What would you like best to eat?"
"Turkish Delight, please, your Majesty," said Edmund.
My eldest is called Adam so it has a certain resonance in our family.
http://www.gutenberg.ca/ebooks/lewiscs-thelionthewitchandthewardrobe/lewiscs-thelionthewitchandthewardrobe-00-h.html
I love PB sometimes.
(Sorry, couldn't resist).
‘7 Legless’ team dress up as Alton Towers Smiler ride amputees
http://thetab.com/uk/nottingham/2016/10/19/7-legless-team-dress-alton-towers-smiler-ride-amputees-33480
Trump Train
CHOOOOOOOOO CHOOOOOOOOOOO(*)
(*) Rasmussen disclaimer ^_~
Our neighbourhood polling station is currently without a Conservative teller for the first time I can recall at any election, Westminster or local.
Spookily my eldest is also an Adam.
@Morris_Dancer
"if you end up seduced by the White Witch, don't blame me."
I think I'll take the chance. There is a stall in the market at Burgess Hill where one can boxes of the real Turkish Delight at very reasonable prices. Except that when one reads the small print one finds that it is actually made in Paphos, which as you no doubt know is actually in the Greek part of Cyprus. Greek Delight, but very nice.
[Is rather nice, though].
https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/789101325065781249
One of the few common features on the social media thingummyjigs I frequent is my avatar (it's Horst, the sarcastic sod who is the main character in Bane of Souls, halfway through turning into a polar bear).
Why do we dignify the term Brexit & call the group which makes up ~30% of Parliament Brexiteers? It makes it sound positive/adventurous? They're Leavers, i.e. as in 'quitters'.
Edited extra bit: I do sympathise. Just finished proofreading, which involved a number of missing words and 'thinking' people for their contributions.
It's not easy to get everything rite.
However, the first two thirds detailing the back and forth with the negotiations with the Commission, Merkel, Rutte, Renzi et al shows the real reason: there's a total disconnect between our way of thinking and doing things and theirs. Not saying one is better, just totally different. Now, why on earth didn't it seem to occur to anyone to step back from the immediate cut and thrust and think "you know what, maybe the sceptics have a point, this is just never going to work as it should"?
The article seems to me to (inadvertently) show why a parting of the ways was inevitable. Brexit 2016 was just timing.
A very long read, but impressive. I hadn't realised how much effort went into Mr Cameron's re-negotiation. Having now read all the way through that article, all I can say is that the mismatch of mind-sets between the UK & the EU is so much greater than I thought that there was never any hope of unity.
And good afternoon, everyone.
There's an approximately 96% chance that I'll lose my £5,
But in case that 4% comes off, I want everyone to say "Wow, rcs1000, good one".
Mr. P, I'm unsurprised to hear that, given the Lords, and the likes of Clegg and Miliband.
If Boris had decided to back Remain that would probably have swung it marginally the other way.
I'm not sure the voters of the eurozone and Britain feel that differently. Its just the sentiment has percolated to the surface in Britain in ways it hasn;t yet in Europe.
The most successful part of the negotiation was arguably Osborne’s securing of protections for the City of London financial district and non-eurozone countries like the U.K. It was truly a remarkable package, and it meant that Bank of England Governor Mark Carney would support the deal.
The important point as far as the Brexit negotiations are concerned is that the priorities of our EU friends won't have changed. We're not going to get a good trade deal without Freedom of Movement. That's why I think the financial markets are still underestimating the risk of a serious hit to the economy (and the Eurozone economy as well).
Then there is the issue, as that paper makes clear, of the power of the SpAds to control, or at least direct, the thinking of senior ministers. SpAds tend to be young, jolly clever (at least in their own estimation) but very loyal to their minister. Cameron was one himself. So you get young, clever people who have little experience or real understanding of issues and people effectively controlling government decisions.
The result of the referendum was, I think, set before Cameron came to office, probably before he became an MP. The power of that essay is not that it exposes the corrupt nature of the EU (who knew that Juncker's chief of staff had so much power) but that it provides an expose on the machinations of government today and how fecking useless our politicians actually are.
"I mean, can if she wants a hard Brexit, the negotiations will be difficult"
Hope that helps.
European leaders have been unwilling or incapable of reversing an institutional logic, in which the European Commission, egged on by the European Parliament, has increasingly interfered in the minutiae of daily life, even as the European Council — where the national leaders gather — has grown ever less powerful on anything that does not regard the eurozone. In the so-called trilogues — in which officials from the three major EU institutions meet to hash out directives — the Commission and the Parliament often steamroller the Council.
you may well be right. Plenty of exciting elections ahead for us to find out!
Also, the EU army pronouncements came shortly after the referendum. If their date was set in stone, Cameron would not have wanted to field questions about an EU army.
Sadly, with Brexit, the most meaningful conversations will be held without us there. Before Brexit we would have been in that little circle of trust. Oh well. We'll get used to being a little insignificant country on the periphery. Just give us time.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37710786
Here's a #Witney by-election prediction
47% Cons
30% Lib Dems
12% Lab
6% UKIP
LibDems would be pleased with that.