Unlike the first two I saw this debate live. Thoughts :
Trump - Started fine but again couldn't hold it together for 90 minutes. He didn't appeal outside his base. The refusal to accept the election result will hurt him and be the talking point in coming days.
Clinton - Solid if uninspiring performance. A few good zingers. No significant errors. She did what she needed to do.
Overall - Trump lost his last big chance. Clinton coasts to the win
Without the benefit this time of either Peter the Punter's or Rod Croby's views on the outcome of the POTUS election, we PB.com punters are relying increasingly on your wisdom Jack to give us a good steer. As things stand, what's your best guess on how the 538 ECV cake will split.
Just read that Hollande piece, my word I knew he was staggeringly inept but that's a different ballgame.
This surprised me - not that it is done, but that he admitted to it:
Perhaps most damaging of all, not a jibe but a revelation: the admission that he personally ordered the assassination of four enemies of the state, presumably militants in the Middle East. The secret services must be fuming.
Without the benefit this time of either Peter the Punter's or Rod Croby's views on the outcome of the POTUS election, we PB.com punters are relying increasingly on your wisdom Jack to give us a good steer. As things stand, what's your best guess on how the 538 ECV cake will split.
Presently I'm on 358/180 :
Clinton wins all of Obama 12 + Arizona and North Carolina but misses Georgia. Trump keeps Utah and NE CD02 but misses ME CD02 :
Without the benefit this time of either Peter the Punter's or Rod Croby's views on the outcome of the POTUS election, we PB.com punters are relying increasingly on your wisdom Jack to give us a good steer. As things stand, what's your best guess on how the 538 ECV cake will split.
Presently I'm on 358/180 :
Clinton wins all of Obama 12 + Arizona and North Carolina but misses Georgia. Trump keeps Utah and NE CD02 but misses ME CD02 :
The polling tells the story. As Nate Silver notes, on the eve of the first presidential debate, Clinton led by 1.5 points. Before the second, she was up by 5.6 points. Before the third, she was winning by 7.1 points.
I did notice Clinton kept calling Trump 'Donald' (which apparently he loathes) - but Donald kept calling Clinton 'She'.....as if he couldn't bear to utter her name.....
The polling tells the story. As Nate Silver notes, on the eve of the first presidential debate, Clinton led by 1.5 points. Before the second, she was up by 5.6 points. Before the third, she was winning by 7.1 points.
I did notice Clinton kept calling Trump 'Donald' (which apparently he loathes) - but Donald kept calling Clinton 'She'.....as if he couldn't bear to utter her name.....
I wonder where he gets the 7.1%, as that doesn't match his own website at 6.6%?
The polling tells the story. As Nate Silver notes, on the eve of the first presidential debate, Clinton led by 1.5 points. Before the second, she was up by 5.6 points. Before the third, she was winning by 7.1 points.
I did notice Clinton kept calling Trump 'Donald' (which apparently he loathes) - but Donald kept calling Clinton 'She'.....as if he couldn't bear to utter her name.....
Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls.
The polling tells the story. As Nate Silver notes, on the eve of the first presidential debate, Clinton led by 1.5 points. Before the second, she was up by 5.6 points. Before the third, she was winning by 7.1 points.
I did notice Clinton kept calling Trump 'Donald' (which apparently he loathes) - but Donald kept calling Clinton 'She'.....as if he couldn't bear to utter her name.....
Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls.
The polling tells the story. As Nate Silver notes, on the eve of the first presidential debate, Clinton led by 1.5 points. Before the second, she was up by 5.6 points. Before the third, she was winning by 7.1 points.
I did notice Clinton kept calling Trump 'Donald' (which apparently he loathes) - but Donald kept calling Clinton 'She'.....as if he couldn't bear to utter her name.....
Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls.
Be careful what you look for.
You think Trump will win the popular vote?
I don't think he will.
I'm prepared to back that up with real money.
Evens, up to £25k.
?
I think there would have to be the mother of all events to stop Clinton winning now!
This thread looks very familiar. Just change the header from Trump to Brexit ...
In as far as the betting markets sometimes get it wrong (if we accept the principle that the favourite should win as 'right', which we shouldn't), that's true. However, the inference that we can simply ignore what those who are willing to stake money believe is daft. If they got it 'wrong' most of the time, making a profit would be a doddle.
The polling tells the story. As Nate Silver notes, on the eve of the first presidential debate, Clinton led by 1.5 points. Before the second, she was up by 5.6 points. Before the third, she was winning by 7.1 points.
I did notice Clinton kept calling Trump 'Donald' (which apparently he loathes) - but Donald kept calling Clinton 'She'.....as if he couldn't bear to utter her name.....
Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls.
Be careful what you look for.
You think Trump will win the popular vote?
I don't think he will.
I'm prepared to back that up with real money.
Evens, up to £25k.
?
Better odds with Betfair for those who really think the Donald has a chance.
Save your money for popcorn, as the alt.right disappears up its own tinfoil-lined arse.
The polling tells the story. As Nate Silver notes, on the eve of the first presidential debate, Clinton led by 1.5 points. Before the second, she was up by 5.6 points. Before the third, she was winning by 7.1 points.
I did notice Clinton kept calling Trump 'Donald' (which apparently he loathes) - but Donald kept calling Clinton 'She'.....as if he couldn't bear to utter her name.....
Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls.
Be careful what you look for.
You think Trump will win the popular vote?
I don't think he will.
I'm prepared to back that up with real money.
Evens, up to £25k.
?
Silly sod: why on earth would I take Evens on Trump when I can get at least 4/1?
That aside, my point is that people see what they want to see. On balance I reckon Trump will lose but I don't see the foregone conclusion that some others do, and that's based on polling as well as other reports.
Remember how cockahoop and cocky Remainers were right up to the night of the result? They were convinced to the point of arrogance.
The polling tells the story. As Nate Silver notes, on the eve of the first presidential debate, Clinton led by 1.5 points. Before the second, she was up by 5.6 points. Before the third, she was winning by 7.1 points.
I did notice Clinton kept calling Trump 'Donald' (which apparently he loathes) - but Donald kept calling Clinton 'She'.....as if he couldn't bear to utter her name.....
Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls.
Trump obviously won. I mean, I read it in a Wikileaks. There was an email from Hilary in 1875 that, despite the occasional Russian word in it (which I take as a sign that she's really Russian (*)), details her fear of how Trump was going to beat her.
She also says she'd enjoy it, as all women enjoy being beaten. Especially by someone as utterly brilliant, with such wisdom, and great hair, as Trump.
She also refers to Trump as the Messiah and "my persona God, for whom I would sacrifice Bill and sell Chelsea into slavery".
It's all there.
WAKE UP PEOPLE!
(*) Which is why she wears white. She's obviously not got over 1923.
Trump obviously won. I mean, I read it in a Wikileaks. There was an email from Hilary in 1875 that, despite the occasional Russian word in it (which I take as a sign that she's really Russian (*)), details her fear of how Trump was going to beat her.
She also says she'd enjoy it, as all women enjoy being beaten. Especially by someone as utterly brilliant, with such wisdom, and great hair, as Trump.
She also refers to Trump as the Messiah and "my persona God, for whom I would sacrifice Bill and sell Chelsea into slavery".
It's all there.
WAKE UP PEOPLE!
(*) Which is why she wears white. She's obviously not got over 1923.
I'd give that a 5/10. More believable had you said "wake up sheeple"
Trump obviously won. I mean, I read it in a Wikileaks. There was an email from Hilary in 1875 that, despite the occasional Russian word in it (which I take as a sign that she's really Russian (*)), details her fear of how Trump was going to beat her.
She also says she'd enjoy it, as all women enjoy being beaten. Especially by someone as utterly brilliant, with such wisdom, and great hair, as Trump.
She also refers to Trump as the Messiah and "my persona God, for whom I would sacrifice Bill and sell Chelsea into slavery".
It's all there.
WAKE UP PEOPLE!
(*) Which is why she wears white. She's obviously not got over 1923.
I'd give that a 5/10. More believable had you said "wake up sheeple"
Hey, it's early in the morning, so I'll take 5/10.
Trump obviously won. I mean, I read it in a Wikileaks. There was an email from Hilary in 1875 that, despite the occasional Russian word in it (which I take as a sign that she's really Russian (*)), details her fear of how Trump was going to beat her.
She also says she'd enjoy it, as all women enjoy being beaten. Especially by someone as utterly brilliant, with such wisdom, and great hair, as Trump.
She also refers to Trump as the Messiah and "my persona God, for whom I would sacrifice Bill and sell Chelsea into slavery".
It's all there.
WAKE UP PEOPLE!
(*) Which is why she wears white. She's obviously not got over 1923.
I'd give that a 5/10. More believable had you said "wake up sheeple"
Hey, it's early in the morning, so I'll take 5/10.
Trump obviously won. I mean, I read it in a Wikileaks. There was an email from Hilary in 1875 that, despite the occasional Russian word in it (which I take as a sign that she's really Russian (*)), details her fear of how Trump was going to beat her.
She also says she'd enjoy it, as all women enjoy being beaten. Especially by someone as utterly brilliant, with such wisdom, and great hair, as Trump.
She also refers to Trump as the Messiah and "my persona God, for whom I would sacrifice Bill and sell Chelsea into slavery".
It's all there.
WAKE UP PEOPLE!
(*) Which is why she wears white. She's obviously not got over 1923.
I'd give that a 5/10. More believable had you said "wake up sheeple"
Hey, it's early in the morning, so I'll take 5/10.
Trump obviously won. I mean, I read it in a Wikileaks. There was an email from Hilary in 1875 that, despite the occasional Russian word in it (which I take as a sign that she's really Russian (*)), details her fear of how Trump was going to beat her.
She also says she'd enjoy it, as all women enjoy being beaten. Especially by someone as utterly brilliant, with such wisdom, and great hair, as Trump.
She also refers to Trump as the Messiah and "my persona God, for whom I would sacrifice Bill and sell Chelsea into slavery".
It's all there.
WAKE UP PEOPLE!
(*) Which is why she wears white. She's obviously not got over 1923.
I'd give that a 5/10. More believable had you said "wake up sheeple"
Hey, it's early in the morning, so I'll take 5/10.
The polling tells the story. As Nate Silver notes, on the eve of the first presidential debate, Clinton led by 1.5 points. Before the second, she was up by 5.6 points. Before the third, she was winning by 7.1 points.
I did notice Clinton kept calling Trump 'Donald' (which apparently he loathes) - but Donald kept calling Clinton 'She'.....as if he couldn't bear to utter her name.....
Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls.
Be careful what you look for.
If you only look at ras and la times then yes. And ignore the 15 other polls...
The polling tells the story. As Nate Silver notes, on the eve of the first presidential debate, Clinton led by 1.5 points. Before the second, she was up by 5.6 points. Before the third, she was winning by 7.1 points.
I did notice Clinton kept calling Trump 'Donald' (which apparently he loathes) - but Donald kept calling Clinton 'She'.....as if he couldn't bear to utter her name.....
Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls.
Be careful what you look for.
You think Trump will win the popular vote?
I don't think he will.
I'm prepared to back that up with real money.
Evens, up to £25k.
?
Silly sod: why on earth would I take Evens on Trump when I can get at least 4/1?
That aside, my point is that people see what they want to see. On balance I reckon Trump will lose but I don't see the foregone conclusion that some others do, and that's based on polling as well as other reports.
Remember how cockahoop and cocky Remainers were right up to the night of the result? They were convinced to the point of arrogance.
There was an abundance of both evidence and reasoning to suggest that Leave might win e.g.
- a majority of polls in June had Leave ahead - the expectation was that Leave would benefit from a big turnout (or a very small one). - Remain's campaign was dreadful
By contrast, the evidence and reasoning in the US all points to Hillary:
- nearly all VI polling puts Hillary ahead - Trump's approval ratings are far worse - state polling reinforces the national trend - Trump is still playing to the base and not seeking to gain independents or women - Relying on new voters in a pre-existing format is an extremely tough ask (c.f. EURef) - Early voting is taking place now, hard coding current opinion into the results - Trump's character won't allow him to change tack - The GOP is distancing itself as much as possible to mitigate damage; they expect him to lose
Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls.
Be careful what you look for.
I love unintended irony.
Don't be patronising David, you're better than that.
My point was a betting one. All my best bets have been the ones where I stripped out my desires and wants. Bet from the head, not the heart.
"Bet from the head not the heart" is sound advice. If anything, I tend to overcompensate.
But I'm sorry; to say "Be careful what you look for" at the same time as posting "Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls" does at the least suggest selective vision.
FWIW, the better comparison would be with GE2015, when the Tories outperformed all the polling but one firm (ICM?) consistently gave them leads of 3-6, which while still short, looked at the time like a methodological error. In fact, they were closest to being on the ball.
However, in that election, the subsidiary data suggested that there might be something wrong with the top line; in this one, it reinforces the impression that they're in synch.
Comments
Perhaps most damaging of all, not a jibe but a revelation: the admission that he personally ordered the assassination of four enemies of the state, presumably militants in the Middle East. The secret services must be fuming.
Clinton wins all of Obama 12 + Arizona and North Carolina but misses Georgia. Trump keeps Utah and NE CD02 but misses ME CD02 :
http://www.270towin.com/maps/9eXpl
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/19/13340828/hillary-clinton-debate-trump-won
"Hillary Clinton crushed Donald Trump in the most effective series of debate performances in modern political history."
I mean, seriously?
The polling tells the story. As Nate Silver notes, on the eve of the first presidential debate, Clinton led by 1.5 points. Before the second, she was up by 5.6 points. Before the third, she was winning by 7.1 points.
I did notice Clinton kept calling Trump 'Donald' (which apparently he loathes) - but Donald kept calling Clinton 'She'.....as if he couldn't bear to utter her name.....
Be careful what you look for.
I don't think he will.
I'm prepared to back that up with real money.
Evens, up to £25k.
?
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/20/politics/donald-trump-junior-running-step-down/index.html?sr=twCNN102016donald-trump-junior-running-step-down0601AMStoryPhoto&linkId=30147627
Trump Jr saying in essence POTUS not as important as President of Trump Inc., that'll go down well!
Save your money for popcorn, as the alt.right disappears up its own tinfoil-lined arse.
That aside, my point is that people see what they want to see. On balance I reckon Trump will lose but I don't see the foregone conclusion that some others do, and that's based on polling as well as other reports.
Remember how cockahoop and cocky Remainers were right up to the night of the result? They were convinced to the point of arrogance.
She also says she'd enjoy it, as all women enjoy being beaten. Especially by someone as utterly brilliant, with such wisdom, and great hair, as Trump.
She also refers to Trump as the Messiah and "my persona God, for whom I would sacrifice Bill and sell Chelsea into slavery".
It's all there.
WAKE UP PEOPLE!
(*) Which is why she wears white. She's obviously not got over 1923.
NEW THREAD
My point was a betting one. All my best bets have been the ones where I stripped out my desires and wants. Bet from the head, not the heart.
- a majority of polls in June had Leave ahead
- the expectation was that Leave would benefit from a big turnout (or a very small one).
- Remain's campaign was dreadful
By contrast, the evidence and reasoning in the US all points to Hillary:
- nearly all VI polling puts Hillary ahead
- Trump's approval ratings are far worse
- state polling reinforces the national trend
- Trump is still playing to the base and not seeking to gain independents or women
- Relying on new voters in a pre-existing format is an extremely tough ask (c.f. EURef)
- Early voting is taking place now, hard coding current opinion into the results
- Trump's character won't allow him to change tack
- The GOP is distancing itself as much as possible to mitigate damage; they expect him to lose
But I'm sorry; to say "Be careful what you look for" at the same time as posting "Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls" does at the least suggest selective vision.
FWIW, the better comparison would be with GE2015, when the Tories outperformed all the polling but one firm (ICM?) consistently gave them leads of 3-6, which while still short, looked at the time like a methodological error. In fact, they were closest to being on the ball.
However, in that election, the subsidiary data suggested that there might be something wrong with the top line; in this one, it reinforces the impression that they're in synch.