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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ahead of the final debate Betfair gives Trump just a 16% chanc

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited October 2016
    America is great, because America is good....

    That doesn't mean anything...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    America is great, because America is good....

    That doesn't mean anything...

    Britain is great.... it's in the name :)
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    America is great, because America is good....

    That doesn't mean anything...

    It does mean something : that Anglo-Saxon values of freedom and tolerance are what makes our countries great.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    ".......... the fraud and racketeering case against Trump University"

    Can you imagine a fraud and racketeering case against Cameron / Miliband / May / Corbyn University?

    It is beyond absurdity to even contemplate such a thing.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MikeL said:

    ".......... the fraud and racketeering case against Trump University"

    Can you imagine a fraud and racketeering case against Cameron / Miliband / May / Corbyn University?

    It is beyond absurdity to even contemplate such a thing.

    RICO is a statue that is beyond absurdity, I agree.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    Charles said:

    America is great, because America is good....

    That doesn't mean anything...

    It does mean something : that Anglo-Saxon values of freedom and tolerance are what makes our countries great.
    It's a quote from de Tocqueville. Or it's supposed to be. I think Eisenhower said it was, but it's said to be apocryphal.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    Trump's twitter has been taken over by his sober campaign team.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/788923410353008640
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited October 2016
    MikeL said:

    ".......... the fraud and racketeering case against Trump University"

    Can you imagine a fraud and racketeering case against Cameron / Miliband / May / Corbyn University?

    It is beyond absurdity to even contemplate such a thing.

    Or even against Clinton. She would be finished if she did such a thing. But Trump was given a pass by the media during the primaries and now they attack him. They always build u up to knock you down.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Dromedary said:

    Charles said:

    America is great, because America is good....

    That doesn't mean anything...

    It does mean something : that Anglo-Saxon values of freedom and tolerance are what makes our countries great.
    It's a quote from de Tocqueville.
    Sure. But I doubt that most people will have read him.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    viewcode said:

    @Pong
    georgia for clinton
    texas for clinton
    ohio for trump
    utah for trump

    Thank you, sir

    Just bear in mind all of those (with the exception of Utah) are longshots and more likely than not to lose.

    Only worth backing if you can get long odds.

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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Trump: "She shouldn't be allowed to run". Based on what she did with emails and so many other things.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    Surely not a good idea for Trump to say he'll decide if election was rigged at the time.

    How can that gain votes? It just opens him to ridicule.
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    We are down the rabbit hole now....
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    MikeL said:

    Surely not a good idea for Trump to say he'll decide if election was rigged at the time.

    How can that gain votes? It just opens him to ridicule.

    Farage said the referendum was rigged until he won.
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    Ok Trumps performance here is terrible
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    So far this won't have changed a single vote.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    Clinton still 1.22.

    Unchanged from pre debate.
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    619 said:

    Ok Trumps performance here is terrible

    He isn't even interesting. The second debate you just weren't quite sure what he was going to do. At point, I really thought he might throw his chair or something worse.

    This in comparison is a snoozefest.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    MikeL said:

    Surely not a good idea for Trump to say he'll decide if election was rigged at the time.

    How can that gain votes? It just opens him to ridicule.

    Farage said the referendum was rigged until he won.
    He said it was rigged, then unrigged.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited October 2016
    619 said:

    Ok Trumps performance here is terrible

    You shock me with your assessment, especially considering your usual neutrality and impartiality on the subject.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    MikeL said:

    ".......... the fraud and racketeering case against Trump University"

    Can you imagine a fraud and racketeering case against Cameron / Miliband / May / Corbyn University?

    It is beyond absurdity to even contemplate such a thing.

    It is beyond absurdity that this Presidential race has come down to two candidates with so much political luggage between them! It is crazy. The Democrats chose the right candidate eight years ago, and after two terms of Office there not even a whiff of corruption or scandal surrounding Obama's term in Office. Right now, it looks like anyone but Trump or Clinton would have been a better choice by either the Republicans or the Democrats.
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    Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 392
    edited October 2016
    I'm seeing a big whiteboard in a briefing room at Clinton HQ saying "LOOK PRESIDENTIAL!!!" in enormous red letters.
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    I'm seeing a big whiteboard in a briefing room at Clinton HQ saying "LOOK PRESIDENTIAL!!!" in enormous red letters.

    REMEMBER TO SMILE WHEN YOU MAKE JOKE #27...
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    Deeper down the rabbit hole....
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Deeper down the rabbit hole....

    Wrong.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited October 2016
    RobD said:

    Deeper down the rabbit hole....

    Wrong.
    LOL...its not wrong...its WRRRRRRong.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    Deeper down the rabbit hole....

    Wrong.
    LOL.
    Wrong.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    Deeper down the rabbit hole....

    Wrong.
    LOL...its not wrong...its WRRRRRRong.
    :D sorry, I stand corrected.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    I'm seeing a big whiteboard in a briefing room at Clinton HQ saying "LOOK PRESIDENTIAL!!!" in enormous red letters.

    REMEMBER TO SMILE WHEN YOU MAKE JOKE #27...
    BLINK BREATHE LIE BLINK BREATHE LIE SMILE BLINK BREATHE LIE
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    What's Aleppo?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,008
    Pong said:

    viewcode said:

    @Pong
    georgia for clinton
    texas for clinton
    ohio for trump
    utah for trump

    Thank you, sir

    Just bear in mind all of those (with the exception of Utah) are longshots and more likely than not to lose.

    Only worth backing if you can get long odds.

    OK, thank you.
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    Oh god he is back on the false Iranian cash story...
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    What's Aleppo?

    Welcome to PB.com, Gov. Gary Johnson, it's an honour to have you here, Sir.


    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/09/us/politics/gary-johnson-aleppo.html
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited October 2016
    I can't take anymore of this, it is just painfully bad and bonkers. It is actually more scary than when they were going full on Jeremy Kyle.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Trump says many refugees from Syria who have come to the US are ISIS and "wait until you see what happens" in the US in the next few years. Clinton seems to be dodging the question of whether she would shoot down a Russian plane that violates a US no-fly zone. Trump is probably going to say "Hell yeah, I'd shoot it down".
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    Did someone just prompt Clinton to say Orlando?
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279

    I can't take anymore of this, it is just painfully bad and bonkers. It is actually more scary than when they were going full on Jeremy Kyle.

    Can I second that.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    edited October 2016

    Did someone just prompt Clinton to say Orlando?

    Someone did say something in that pause...
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    GeoffM said:

    619 said:

    Ok Trumps performance here is terrible

    You shock me with your assessment, especially considering your usual neutrality and impartiality on the subject.
    You like his performance???
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016
    Score draw.

    I've laid trump @ 5.9

    The trump-won't-accept-the-election-result will be the headline.

    This was trump's last chance to change the narrative and he hasn't done it.

    Book;

    Clinton +27.8
    Trump +-0
    Pence +72
    Kaine +50
    Michelle +-0
    Others +220
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    619 said:

    GeoffM said:

    619 said:

    Ok Trumps performance here is terrible

    You shock me with your assessment, especially considering your usual neutrality and impartiality on the subject.
    You like his performance???
    No, just your neutral and balanced opinion.
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    Pong said:

    Score draw.

    I've laid trump.

    The trump-won't-accept-the-election-result will be the headline.

    This was trump's last chance to change the narrative and he hasn't done it.

    Unless the Clinton campaign have a final bit of muck to throw.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    10.00pm...11.45pm...12.00am...2.00am...2.45am...3.00am...3.30am

    Clinton 1.215...=...=...1.225...=...=...=
    Trump 6.1...=...5.95...5.7...5.85...5.75...5.95
    Pence 440...465...470...550...550...565...515
    McMullin 630...390...=...430...525...525...450
    Kaine 925...950...=...960...925...965...=

    neither Clinton nor Trump 76.8...=...112.5...121.4...78.5...102.5...64.1
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Most vacuous closing statement ever by Clinton. Nearly fell back to sleep.
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    What a shit show...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    Meg Whitman embraces Clinton.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    CNN: Headline is Trump says he might not accept result.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016
    MikeL said:

    CNN: Headline is Trump says he might not accept result.

    Pong (10 minutes before): "trump-won't-accept-the-election-result will be the headline."
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    MikeL said:

    CNN: Headline is Trump says he might not accept result.

    Well there wasn't any policy to have as a headline....well other than Clinton college policy that sounds very very expensive.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    MikeL said:

    CNN: Headline is Trump says he might not accept result.

    Seriously, will this one even make it into the Trump Top Ten bloopers on the Campaign trail?
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Charles said:

    Dromedary said:

    Charles said:

    America is great, because America is good....

    That doesn't mean anything...

    It does mean something : that Anglo-Saxon values of freedom and tolerance are what makes our countries great.
    It's a quote from de Tocqueville.
    Sure. But I doubt that most people will have read him.
    de Tocqueville on America is very well known in America, at least for those with graduate level education. He is the father of American exceptionalism.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    Small move:

    Clinton 1.21
    Trump 6
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Was going to watch the bits I missed.. then I thought F that. :o
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    RobD said:

    Was going to watch the bits I missed.. then I thought F that. :o

    You missed Trump miming 'rip the baby out of the womb'...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    Was going to watch the bits I missed.. then I thought F that. :o

    You missed Trump miming 'rip the baby out of the womb'...
    Did @FrancisUrquhart choke on his popcorn?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    Now:

    Clinton 1.19
    Trump 6.2
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    Trump was good * for the first 25 minutes then began to disintegrate. By the end it was shocking. The only thing most voters will read is his headline re not accepting the result. A disastrous performance. * Good meaning defending his base.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Trump was good * for the first 25 minutes then began to disintegrate. By the end it was shocking. The only thing most voters will read is his headline re not accepting the result. A disastrous performance. * Good meaning defending his base.

    The headline is more akin to a banana republic then "the greatest democracy on earth". What a farce.
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    Clinton more presidential as ever. Bit more passion. A few zingers. A bit smug. Can't see she'll have changed any minds other than the " f**k I really do have to vote for her go stop him. F**k. " Crowd.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,006
    MikeL said:

    Betfair exactly where it started pre debate.

    Clinton went in to 1.21 very briefly but now back at 1.22 where she started.

    Clinton now down to 1.19
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    619619 Posts: 1,784

    Trump was good * for the first 25 minutes then began to disintegrate. By the end it was shocking. The only thing most voters will read is his headline re not accepting the result. A disastrous performance. * Good meaning defending his base.

    Yeah, he made a big mistake.
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    Summary: Clinton won, Trump lost. My suspicion from some of the new memes Clinton is that the DNC have several new buckets of **** to tip over Trump. She's replaying the strategy from debates 1 + 2 . Prime issues that are about to break then let him self destruct under scrutiny.
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    As an aside I though the moderator was by far the best of the three debates. Bit wordy but actual questions with follow up.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    I'm not sure Clinton needs do anything more now. The possibility of not accepting the election result is the final nail in the Trump campaign's coffin. A lot of Americans take their (small "r") republicanism very seriously and Trump just repudiated that.
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    The extremely naughty part of me wondered if Trump's low energy performance was linked to his relative lack of sniffing this time. Pity there were no Foriegn Policy questions on Columbia.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,006
    Trump will only accept the result if he wins.

    The definition of a sore loser.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Michael McDonald – ‏@ElectProject

    Republican Secretaries of State so crafty: rigged the primaries for Trump so they could rig the general for Clinton
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    In fact the biggest story of the night should be the sound bite Trump gave saying Roe vs Wade will be reversed if he is president. The fact we're all talking about his refusal to accept the result shows how shocking his formulation was.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Sudeep Reddy ‏@Reddy
    The world’s highly skilled immigrants are increasingly living in just four nations: U.S., U.K., Canada and Australia http://on.wsj.com/2eekdRI
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    CNN poll: Who won?

    Clinton 52
    Trump 39
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    nunu said:

    Sudeep Reddy ‏@Reddy
    The world’s highly skilled immigrants are increasingly living in just four nations: U.S., U.K., Canada and Australia http://on.wsj.com/2eekdRI

    Go Anglosphere!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    MikeL said:

    CNN poll: Who won?

    Clinton 52
    Trump 39

    I can rest easy now knowing who I should think won. :p
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    Dromedary said:

    Charles said:

    America is great, because America is good....

    That doesn't mean anything...

    It does mean something : that Anglo-Saxon values of freedom and tolerance are what makes our countries great.
    It's a quote from de Tocqueville.
    Sure. But I doubt that most people will have read him.
    de Tocqueville on America is very well known in America, at least for those with graduate level education. He is the father of American exceptionalism.
    I know. I had to read the damn book at school :smile:

    But I doubt that many of the voters will get the reference
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    YouGovUS
    YouGovUS – Verified account ‏@YouGovUS

    POST-DEBATE POLL: Who won?

    Hillary Clinton: 49%
    Donald Trump: 39%

    More: http://y-g.co/2e89yrn
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016
    Dan Diamond
    @ddiamond

    Who won *each* debate? Per CNN insta-polls Debate 1: Clinton 62 - Trump 27 Debate 2: Clinton 57 - Trump 34 Debate 3: Clinton 52 - Trump 39

    He just needs half a dozen more debates - and an election in January and he'll be on course to win.


    Silly man. If he'd have listened to advice and pivoted after the RNC (and run a conventional campaign with proper debate prep etc) he may well have won.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    RobD said:
    Not at all like Gore, who accepted the result once there was one (ie once the Supreme Court ruled there would be no more vote counting).
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    nunu said:

    YouGovUS
    YouGovUS – Verified account ‏@YouGovUS

    POST-DEBATE POLL: Who won?

    Hillary Clinton: 49%
    Donald Trump: 39%

    More: http://y-g.co/2e89yrn

    68% of debate watchers said Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump should "pledge to accept the result of the election", including 51% of Republican viewers. 14% oppose a pledge and 18% don't know.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    CNN Poll: Who better prepared to be President?

    Clinton 59
    Trump 35
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Gonna be fun to see all those here majoring on the "sore loser" Trump meme who, er, are sore losers over Brexit....
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    It is my imagination or was HRC showing a bit more leg to her left flank, some of her pitch sounded rather like "open borders" and "abortion on demand" which suggests making more of an attempt to reconcile with the Bernie voters, she must feel confident enough that her talk is not going to glue the evangelicals back onto Trump.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Gonna be fun to see all those here majoring on the "sore loser" Trump meme who, er, are sore losers over Brexit....

    I don't think Trump is remotely fit to be president, but the one small redeeming feature it would have would be the absolute meltdown and enraged incomprehension of the metropolitan liberals which would provide schadenfreude flavoured popcorn for the next four years at least ;)
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279

    Gonna be fun to see all those here majoring on the "sore loser" Trump meme who, er, are sore losers over Brexit....

    What he said.... #Justsaying
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    London Zoo gorilla escape: Break-out 'was opportunistic'

    "Once alone, the animal briefly explored the area next door to his den, where he opened and drank five litres of undiluted blackcurrant squash"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-37710435
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    So the polling shows she won all three debates. But it's not losing the Debates that's damaged Trump. It's losing the subsequent weeks as he imposes over crazy stuff he said which he keeps saying. It's meant to be a referendum on her as the de facto incumbent. He keeps willingly making it a referendum on himself. He's done it again with the bizzare " suspense " comments. We'll have to see if her baiting of him on Putin links and using illegal immigrant labour he subsequently threatened follows the pattern. That the DNC has a load of **** to dump on him in those topics and he'll take the bait.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Pong said:

    London Zoo gorilla escape: Break-out 'was opportunistic'

    "Once alone, the animal briefly explored the area next door to his den, where he opened and drank five litres of undiluted blackcurrant squash"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-37710435

    You think London Zoo is gonna admit this escape "was months in the planning"?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    Meanwhile, nearer to home.....

    What kind of candidate, a few months ahead of elections, takes it on himself to offend a list of people that includes judges and lawyers, immigrants and Muslims, footballers and intellectuals, political allies as well as enemies, the intelligence community and his ex-girlfriend too?

    The answer is Francois Hollande.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37702917
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Meanwhile, nearer to home.....

    What kind of candidate, a few months ahead of elections, takes it on himself to offend a list of people that includes judges and lawyers, immigrants and Muslims, footballers and intellectuals, political allies as well as enemies, the intelligence community and his ex-girlfriend too?

    The answer is Francois Hollande.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37702917

    Is there a flip side for him electorally speaking ? Often when you insult one group, you curry favour with another, and most of those groups either are tiny, or don't get to vote.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016

    He's done it again with the bizzare " suspense " comments. We'll have to see if her baiting of him on Putin links and using illegal immigrant labour he subsequently threatened follows the pattern. That the DNC has a load of **** to dump on him in those topics and he'll take the bait.

    Exactly.

    And some very smart politics from the dems.

    I think the fundamental problem is Trump is unvetted - and was never prepared to allow his own side to vet him.

    Paul Ryan could have stopped the trump sh*tshow this time last year by demanding public tax disclosure from all GOP candidates.

    Trump may or may not have gone for an independent run - in any case it would have been way less damaging to the GOP than what we're seeing now.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2016
    Unlike the first two I saw this debate live. Thoughts :

    Trump - Started fine but again couldn't hold it together for 90 minutes. He didn't appeal outside his base. The refusal to accept the election result will hurt him and be the talking point in coming days.

    Clinton - Solid if uninspiring performance. A few good zingers. No significant errors. She did what she needed to do.

    Overall - Trump lost his last big chance. Clinton coasts to the win
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    Indigo said:

    Meanwhile, nearer to home.....

    What kind of candidate, a few months ahead of elections, takes it on himself to offend a list of people that includes judges and lawyers, immigrants and Muslims, footballers and intellectuals, political allies as well as enemies, the intelligence community and his ex-girlfriend too?

    The answer is Francois Hollande.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37702917

    Is there a flip side for him electorally speaking ? Often when you insult one group, you curry favour with another, and most of those groups either are tiny, or don't get to vote.
    Doesn't appear to be the mood in his party:

    "Imagine burying your grandmother when she is still alive; that's roughly the ambience at party HQ," said another.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Overnight State Polling :

    New Hampshire - WMUR - Sample 755 - 11-17 Oct

    Clinton 49 .. Trump 34

    https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2016_fall_preselec101916.pdf

    Wisconsin - PPP - Sample 804 - 18-19 Oct

    Clinton 50 .. Trump 38

    http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ECU-WI-poll-Oct19.pdf

    Ohio - Uni of Akron - Sample 1,004 - 23 Sep - 13 Oct

    Clinton 41 .. Trump 38

    http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ECU-WI-poll-Oct19.pdf

    North Carolina - Civitas - Sample 600 - 14-17 Oct

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 43

    https://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/CivitasOctoberPoll_release.pdf

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    edited October 2016
    JackW said:

    Unlike the first two I saw this debate live. Thoughts :

    Trump - Started fine but again couldn't hold it together for 90 minutes. He didn't appeal outside his base. The refusal to accept the election result will hurt him and be the talking point in coming days.

    Clinton - Solid if uninspiring performance. A few good zingers. No significant errors. She did what she needed to do.

    Overall - Trump lost his last big chance. Clinton coasts to the win

    Sounds like the first two debates which I did see live - Trump starts off ok, but just cant keep it up - decades of being 'top dog' in business does not remotely prepare you for politics.....
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,472
    Is tonight going to be more exciting? Probably not,
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's looking bleak for Trump. The odds haven't changed as a result of his performance in the debate.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,475
    Just read that Hollande piece, my word I knew he was staggeringly inept but that's a different ballgame.
This discussion has been closed.