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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    edited October 2016

    Boom

    The significant thing is that in the two-way Clinton is still below 50% at 49%. In my view you can put the majority of the don't knows down as shy Trumpers.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    Boom

    The significant thing is that in the two-way Clinton is still below 50% at 49%. In my view you can put the majority of the don't knows down as shy Trumpers.
    or non voters. Which is normally what happens.
  • nielh said:

    It seems to me that there is a massive move under way by those who reject leave, both in the UK and abroad, and in the courts to frustrate the will of the people in a democratic vote

    The one re-assuring constant that we have in Theresa May is a leader who is not going to be pushed around by the elite and the remoaner's , but will stand strong and fight the battle for the 'little people' and ensure democracy is respected in this wonderful country of ours

    I would not be too sure about the latter. May has postured and essentially dithered on Brexit. She has bent to the will of the tory party by setting a date to trigger article 50, and now made multiple concessions to parliament on debating the negotiating position. She gets the issues, but in making decisions she is a Merkel style ditherer. And she is in a very weak position.

    No single person has the ability to lead us through this mess, it is a totally impossible situation. The logical response to Brexit was - in my view - a period of reflection on the different options we could try and pursue as a country before taking any formal action. If I recall correctly, this was the position actually advocated by the last Sunday times editorial before the referendum. In the coming weeks, as the complexities play themselves out, these ideas will resurface again.

    This is not dithering or sabotage, it is coming to terms with the gravity of a decision, and is entirely necessary given the unfortunate mess made by Cameron in failing to make any preperations for a leave vote, which has always been more than possible.

    I believe it is very likely that the government will fall and there will be a further general election, and it will be some time before we formally trigger article 50.
    I do not think the government will fall over this unless they were to lose a vote on A50 in the HOC.

    The mood music coming out of today's court case re the serving of A50 does not seem good for those taking the action and anyone voting against the referendum result in the HOC could find their constituents terminating their future career
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    PlatoSaid said:

    Spiked
    Wanna know how out of touch Labour is? See @EmilyThornberry on #bbcqt getting booed for defaming the demos as stupid and uninformed #brexit

    :smiley:

    And this is a London audience as well.
  • Fkn hell, think how big the Clinton lead would be if she hadn't comprehensively lost the 2nd debate.
    Indeed, I hope you're not drinking anything at the moment as I don't want you to have to purchase a new keyboard, but here's more evidence of the African American surge for Trump that's going to win him The White House

    https://twitter.com/jsavite/status/786301833241387008
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited October 2016

    Boom

    The significant thing is that in the two-way Clinton is still below 50% at 49%. In my view you can put the majority of the don't knows down as shy Trumpers.
    The picture it paints is of people turning away from Trump with more of them looking for third party candidates so as not to have to back Clinton. That looks entirely credible to me.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    538 have an article up which has Evan McMullin as the 3rd most likely person to become the next president.
    Not sure how likely this is (1000/1 with Ladbrokes) but he looks a decent bet to win Utah (6/1) if not the whole thing

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Remoaners getting crucified on QT tonight.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    Didn't take long for Unilever to cave in, hopefully other supermarkets will follow Tesco's example.


    Tesco and Unilever end price dispute - BBC News
    www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37650234
    3 hours ago - The BBC understands Unilever gave some ground to resolve issues ... Tesco and Unilever end price dispute ... Tesco v Unilever live updates.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Trumps african american voters come out

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/786301833241387008
  • Fkn hell, think how big the Clinton lead would be if she hadn't comprehensively lost the 2nd debate.
    Indeed, I hope you're not drinking anything at the moment as I don't want you to have to purchase a new keyboard, but here's more evidence of the African American surge for Trump that's going to win him The White House

    https://twitter.com/jsavite/status/786301833241387008
    Vg.
    I guess 'the' black guy is locked in a room somewhere e-mailing his weekly response to the LA times poll.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Alex Salmond absolutely dying on QT
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    chestnut said:

    Remoaners getting crucified on QT tonight.

    Oakeshott is nevertheless an unpleasant piece of work.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    chestnut said:

    Remoaners getting crucified on QT tonight.

    Will be exact opposite in five years time as the economic disaster unfolds.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    chestnut said:

    Remoaners getting crucified on QT tonight.

    Will be exact opposite in five years time as the economic disaster unfolds.
    Said, Austerity 2011.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Saltire said:

    538 have an article up which has Evan McMullin as the 3rd most likely person to become the next president.
    Not sure how likely this is (1000/1 with Ladbrokes) but he looks a decent bet to win Utah (6/1) if not the whole thing

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/

    Definitely worth a bet for Utah (though not for president).
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    chestnut said:

    Remoaners getting crucified on QT tonight.

    They really are.

    And more specifically, I have never seen such a negative reaction to everything said by the Labour Party representative.


  • He followed the line of his civil servants. Ominous now at a remainer Treasury team.

    Quite so, Mr. Betting. I rather suspect that Hammond is a talking suit, a ventriloquist's dummy that is controlled by his own civil servants. Unfortunately those civil servants at the Treasury have had nearly twenty years of being allowed to run wild and ignore their actual jobs. Hammond may be the best TM had available but the UK really needs someone with some backbone, but who is not a megalomaniac trying to run the whole of government, to get a grip of HMT and get it to concentrate on its job.
    Just look at who is the top Treasury civil servant.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/11/camerons-brexit-adviser-chosen-as-new-treasury-mandarin/

    "Cameron's Brexit adviser chosen as new Treasury mandarin "
    "the man who negotiated the UK's deal with the EU ahead of the June 23 referendum"

    No wonder the Treasury are a major problem for the rest of the Govt over Brexit.

    Mrs May needs to fire this man.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mortimer said:

    chestnut said:

    Remoaners getting crucified on QT tonight.

    They really are.

    And more specifically, I have never seen such a negative reaction to everything said by the Labour Party representative.
    If it's this bad in London, what's it like for them elsewhere?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    AndyJS said:

    Mortimer said:

    chestnut said:

    Remoaners getting crucified on QT tonight.

    They really are.

    And more specifically, I have never seen such a negative reaction to everything said by the Labour Party representative.
    If it's this bad in London, what's it like for them elsewhere?
    Is there a PB meet scheduled soon? You must be due a few hundred drinks Andy, in thanks for your spreadsheet. I owe you a good few rounds myself.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    AndyJS said:

    Mortimer said:

    chestnut said:

    Remoaners getting crucified on QT tonight.

    They really are.

    And more specifically, I have never seen such a negative reaction to everything said by the Labour Party representative.
    If it's this bad in London, what's it like for them elsewhere?
    Hendon is a Tory part of London and, perhaps more relevant, a very Jewish area. Of all communities the Jewish community is the least impressed with Labour right now.
  • I was joking earlier that the gorilla that escaped had heard about the Marmite shortages. Apparently the think he went ape because he had been put on a diet* !!!

    * not a joke.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Mortimer said:

    chestnut said:

    Remoaners getting crucified on QT tonight.

    They really are.

    And more specifically, I have never seen such a negative reaction to everything said by the Labour Party representative.
    If it's this bad in London, what's it like for them elsewhere?
    Hendon is a Tory part of London and, perhaps more relevant, a very Jewish area. Of all communities the Jewish community is the least impressed with Labour right now.
    Nah, Con gain Bootle.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    I was joking earlier that the gorilla that escaped had heard about the Marmite shortages. Apparently the think he went ape because he had been put on a diet* !!!

    * not a joke.

    Brexit rations?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    edited October 2016
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Mortimer said:

    chestnut said:

    Remoaners getting crucified on QT tonight.

    They really are.

    And more specifically, I have never seen such a negative reaction to everything said by the Labour Party representative.
    If it's this bad in London, what's it like for them elsewhere?
    Hendon is a Tory part of London and, perhaps more relevant, a very Jewish area. Of all communities the Jewish community is the least impressed with Labour right now.
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Mortimer said:

    chestnut said:

    Remoaners getting crucified on QT tonight.

    They really are.

    And more specifically, I have never seen such a negative reaction to everything said by the Labour Party representative.
    If it's this bad in London, what's it like for them elsewhere?
    Hendon is a Tory part of London and, perhaps more relevant, a very Jewish area. Of all communities the Jewish community is the least impressed with Labour right now.
    More seriously, QT audiences are designed to be pretty reflective of a broad range of opinions. They are good reflections of the demos in general - which is why it remains a watchable programme that parties send serious reps to.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    RobD said:

    Y0kel said:

    Nice to see Russia Today detailing contents of Wikileaks dumps before Wikileaks dumps them.

    Anyone still have doubts?

    Wikileaks was once a great standard bearer for freedom, exposing corrupt western governments and the terrible things they do to their citizens, according to left wing liberals.

    Those left wing liberals should be eating s**t now. They didn't listen and refused to see because they had their head up their arses.

    Or perhaps they gave the press a preview to boost publicity, as happens with many embargoed reports etc.
    Wikileaks is not known for sending out stories with embargos...they are too obsessed with their self importance to let anyone get the exclusive on their valuable work. Secondly if the leaks are related to US politicians wouldn't the best location to throw the teasers out to be US media outlets?

    They must as thick as s**t as well then.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016
    Saltire said:

    538 have an article up which has Evan McMullin as the 3rd most likely person to become the next president.
    Not sure how likely this is (1000/1 with Ladbrokes) but he looks a decent bet to win Utah (6/1) if not the whole thing

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/

    Interesting, but I'm not tempted by either 1000/1 or 6/1.

    538 make him somewhere between 33/1 & 9/1 to win utah

    Then between 40/1 & 60/1 for there to be a deadlocked EC

    So that's at least 400/1 before we start discussing the twelfth amendment.

    In a deadlocked EC, would he really be 6/4 to be POTUS?

    I'd expect trump to throw his principles under a bus and sign up to whatever agenda would get him the keys to the whitehouse.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Emily Thornberry: "We are the largest party in western Europe".
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Fkn hell, think how big the Clinton lead would be if she hadn't comprehensively lost the 2nd debate.
    Indeed, I hope you're not drinking anything at the moment as I don't want you to have to purchase a new keyboard, but here's more evidence of the African American surge for Trump that's going to win him The White House

    https://twitter.com/jsavite/status/786301833241387008
    Vg.
    I guess 'the' black guy is locked in a room somewhere e-mailing his weekly response to the LA times poll.
    There is nothing wrong with this picture at all. I think leading figures in Black Lives Matter in the UK has shown categorically that its important to be white.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Mortimer said:

    chestnut said:

    Remoaners getting crucified on QT tonight.

    They really are.

    And more specifically, I have never seen such a negative reaction to everything said by the Labour Party representative.
    If it's this bad in London, what's it like for them elsewhere?
    Hendon is a Tory part of London and, perhaps more relevant, a very Jewish area. Of all communities the Jewish community is the least impressed with Labour right now.
    Yes but Hendon and Finchley are both top targets for Labour which they need to win an overall majority.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Pong said:

    Saltire said:

    538 have an article up which has Evan McMullin as the 3rd most likely person to become the next president.
    Not sure how likely this is (1000/1 with Ladbrokes) but he looks a decent bet to win Utah (6/1) if not the whole thing

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/

    Interesting, but I'm not tempted by either 1000/1 or 6/1.

    538 make him somewhere between 33/1 & 9/1 to win utah

    Then between 40/1 & 60/1 for there to be a deadlocked EC

    So that's at least 400/1 before we start discussing the twelfth amendment.

    In a deadlocked EC, would he really be 6/4 to be POTUS?



    All very interesting but A EC tie? Far more chance of a Clinton landslide.
  • AndyJS said:

    Emily Thornberry: "We are the largest party in western Europe".

    Mrs Bucket has a terrible hectoring manner.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Anyone got views on Alaska as a Dem win? 3.35 on BF.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    I was joking earlier that the gorilla that escaped had heard about the Marmite shortages. Apparently the think he went ape because he had been put on a diet* !!!

    * not a joke.

    Brexit rations?
    When I first caught Gerald he was wild.

    Wild? I was livid.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Chris g000

    Moderate Labourites must wish a foreign leader died every week so Thornberry would never be in the country.

    Appalling.

    #bbcqt

    :smiley:
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016

    Anyone got views on Alaska as a Dem win? 3.35 on BF.

    I'd rather take the 9/2 on SC or Texas, tbh

    Slightly better value, although all three are most likely losers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Pong said:

    Anyone got views on Alaska as a Dem win? 3.35 on BF.

    I'd rather take the 9/2 on SC or Texas, tbh
    Yes, I was tempted by Texas as well. A tasty 5.9
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    619 said:
    There is a direction here..and it will get further down.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Pong said:

    Saltire said:

    538 have an article up which has Evan McMullin as the 3rd most likely person to become the next president.
    Not sure how likely this is (1000/1 with Ladbrokes) but he looks a decent bet to win Utah (6/1) if not the whole thing

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/

    Interesting, but I'm not tempted by either 1000/1 or 6/1.

    538 make him somewhere between 33/1 & 9/1 to win utah

    Then between 40/1 & 60/1 for there to be a deadlocked EC

    So that's at least 400/1 before we start discussing the twelfth amendment.

    In a deadlocked EC, would he really be 6/4 to be POTUS?



    All very interesting but A EC tie? Far more chance of a Clinton landslide.
    If a third candidate takes a state, it doesn't need a tie in the EC to send the election to the House.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    AndyJS said:

    Emily Thornberry: "We are the largest party in western Europe".

    Mrs Bucket has a terrible hectoring manner.
    ...and so in touch with the Labour voters (excepting university towns).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Pong said:

    Saltire said:

    538 have an article up which has Evan McMullin as the 3rd most likely person to become the next president.
    Not sure how likely this is (1000/1 with Ladbrokes) but he looks a decent bet to win Utah (6/1) if not the whole thing

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/

    Interesting, but I'm not tempted by either 1000/1 or 6/1.

    538 make him somewhere between 33/1 & 9/1 to win utah

    Then between 40/1 & 60/1 for there to be a deadlocked EC

    So that's at least 400/1 before we start discussing the twelfth amendment.

    In a deadlocked EC, would he really be 6/4 to be POTUS?
    All very interesting but A EC tie? Far more chance of a Clinton landslide.
    If a third candidate takes a state, it doesn't need a tie in the EC to send the election to the House.
    It needs no-one to have a majority though.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Have we stopped droning pointlessly about Brexit yet?

    It's beyond tedious. We've juicy Wikileaks and no one is interested - weird marmite
  • AndyJS said:

    Emily Thornberry: "We are the largest party in western Europe".

    Mrs Bucket has a terrible hectoring manner.
    ...and so in touch with the Labour voters (excepting university towns).
    The "who voted to take people's jobs" went down about as well as a Donald Trump immigration speech in a Mosque.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Alaska and Utah are possible shock wins for Clinton. Maybe worth a bet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Mortimer said:

    chestnut said:

    Remoaners getting crucified on QT tonight.

    They really are.

    And more specifically, I have never seen such a negative reaction to everything said by the Labour Party representative.
    If it's this bad in London, what's it like for them elsewhere?
    Hendon is a Tory part of London and, perhaps more relevant, a very Jewish area. Of all communities the Jewish community is the least impressed with Labour right now.
    Yes but Hendon and Finchley are both top targets for Labour which they need to win an overall majority.
    The last poll I saw of Jewish voters had labour support at an all time low - below 10% as I recall. So I think laying Labour there would be a good strategy when the time comes.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Mortimer said:

    chestnut said:

    Remoaners getting crucified on QT tonight.

    They really are.

    And more specifically, I have never seen such a negative reaction to everything said by the Labour Party representative.
    If it's this bad in London, what's it like for them elsewhere?
    Hendon is a Tory part of London and, perhaps more relevant, a very Jewish area. Of all communities the Jewish community is the least impressed with Labour right now.
    Yes but Hendon and Finchley are both top targets for Labour which they need to win an overall majority.
    The last poll I saw of Jewish voters had labour support at an all time low - below 10% as I recall. So I think laying Labour there would be a good strategy when the time comes.
    But DYOR, right?

    :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,457
    edited October 2016
    They appeared we have found the infamous LA Times black voter for Trump...he was in the audience on QT this evening.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Golly, will the truth out?

    ??#Wikileaks Exposes Hillary Clinton Hateful Disdain & Lo Opinion of Blacks & Muslims saying they will be 4ever Failures. Donald Trump https://t.co/RlQgUdAaF4
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,457
    edited October 2016
    The independent editor certainly won't be backing Jahadi Jez's Labour Party at the next GE!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    edited October 2016
    Has anyone picked up on how Evan McMullin could become President because of how the 12th amendment works?

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

    The author reckons it is a a 1-3% chance. McMullin is available on Betfair at 1000/1. This in theory is a value bet, but one that you will lose!

    Edit: Sorry! I see Saltire got there before me.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Katie Hopkins still supporting Trump, (on This Week).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,457
    edited October 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Katie Hopkins still supporting Trump, (on This Week).

    I am sure she just takes the unpopular side of any argument, because it provides her in a job.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Katie Hopkins still supporting Trump, (on This Week).

    I am sure she just takes the unpopular side of any argument, because it provides her in a job.
    Has she been ill recently? She suddenly looks a lot older.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, will the truth out?

    Posted by 'Deplorable Trumpcat'. And they say his campaign doesn't know about demographics...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,457
    edited October 2016
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Katie Hopkins still supporting Trump, (on This Week).

    I am sure she just takes the unpopular side of any argument, because it provides her in a job.
    Has she been ill recently? She suddenly looks a lot older.
    I seemed to remember she had some massive operation on her brain*... (insert joke)...

    Edit:- Crickey...

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/katie-hopkins-cured-epilepsy-after-7620188
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Betting post.

    I have taken the 11/2 on Trump.

    I suspect and hope this is another case of where PBism has lost me money.
  • Jobabob said:

    Betting post.

    I have taken the 11/2 on Trump.

    I suspect and hope this is another case of where PBism has lost me money.

    You would have been better stoking your fire with that money.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016
    Jobabob said:

    Betting post.

    I have taken the 11/2 on Trump.

    I suspect and hope this is another case of where PBism has lost me money.

    Brave.

    Not stupid, just brave.

    Well maybe a bit stupid (sorry!)

    With the odds/polls as they are, you get better value backing trump on the state markets.

    Ohio 3/1 with william hill is a good value bet, IMO.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    McMullin was put in as a spoiler, a guy who could just trim Trump's numbers in as many states as possible. His whole profile was designed to contrast with Trump., Former CIA, strong on the national security bit, no celebrity, solid. A very comfortable home for GOP'ers who wanted to register a conservative vote.

    If the guy pulls the equivalent of 3-4% nationally he is going to help finish Trump.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Y0kel said:

    McMullin was put in as a spoiler, a guy who could just trim Trump's numbers in as many states as possible. His whole profile was designed to contrast with Trump., Former CIA, strong on the national security bit, no celebrity, solid. A very comfortable home for GOP'ers who wanted to register a conservative vote.

    If the guy pulls the equivalent of 3-4% nationally he is going to help finish Trump.

    Is he on all/many ballots?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2016
    "On fresh demand, I'm wanting more".

    That's a lyric from a Spandau Ballet song, but could be applied to the Brexit debate. :)

    http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/spandauballet/instinction.html
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Pong said:

    Jobabob said:

    Betting post.

    I have taken the 11/2 on Trump.

    I suspect and hope this is another case of where PBism has lost me money.

    Brave.

    Not stupid, just brave.

    Well maybe a bit stupid (sorry!)

    With the odds/polls as they are, you get better value backing trump on the state markets.

    Ohio 3/1 with william hill is a good value bet, IMO.
    Probably a bit stupid, to be fair. I am not expecting to win the bet...
  • Jobabob said:

    Betting post.

    I have taken the 11/2 on Trump.

    I suspect and hope this is another case of where PBism has lost me money.

    You can get 6/1 on a Trump winning margin of 0-5%, and humungous prices on bigger margins.

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/786518996082241536
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Y0kel said:

    McMullin was put in as a spoiler, a guy who could just trim Trump's numbers in as many states as possible. His whole profile was designed to contrast with Trump., Former CIA, strong on the national security bit, no celebrity, solid. A very comfortable home for GOP'ers who wanted to register a conservative vote.

    If the guy pulls the equivalent of 3-4% nationally he is going to help finish Trump.

    Is he on all/many ballots?
    30 odd i think.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,023
    Cumbria, Windemere: LD 1009, Con 785, Lab 88, Green 46
    South Lakeland, Bowness North: LD 441, Con 256, Green 37.
    Two LD holds with turnout over 40%.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    Betting post.

    I have taken the 11/2 on Trump.

    I suspect and hope this is another case of where PBism has lost me money.

    You can get 6/1 on a Trump winning margin of 0-5%, and humungous prices on bigger margins.

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/786518996082241536

    Jobabob said:

    Betting post.

    I have taken the 11/2 on Trump.

    I suspect and hope this is another case of where PBism has lost me money.

    You can get 6/1 on a Trump winning margin of 0-5%, and humungous prices on bigger margins.

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/786518996082241536
    I have taken 5.5 to 1 on any sort of Trump win which is good enough. It's a longshot loser - I hope.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    slade said:

    Cumbria, Windemere: LD 1009, Con 785, Lab 88, Green 46
    South Lakeland, Bowness North: LD 441, Con 256, Green 37.
    Two LD holds with turnout over 40%.

    Isn't this Farron land?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Summary of tonights by elections with 2 Kent results in Sevenoaks to come

    Labour hold Lancaster Westgate , Lewisham Brockley and Lewisham Evelyn
    Linc Ind hold North Kesteven Cliff Villages
    Residents gain Tandridge Limpsfield from Con
    Lib Dems hold Cumbria Windemere and S Lakeland Bowness North
    Lib Dems gain Poole Broadstone from Con
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    The independent editor certainly won't be backing Jahadi Jez's Labour Party at the next GE!

    Neither will anyone else, apart from the 400,000 members (or whatever the latest figure from the cult is).
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    AndyJS said:

    Alaska and Utah are possible shock wins for Clinton. Maybe worth a bet.

    As is Texas...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Jobabob said:

    I have taken 5.5 to 1 on any sort of Trump win which is good enough. It's a longshot loser - I hope.

    Your investment is about to appear at a rally in Ohio. Nobody can say he's not putting in the work on the campaign trail.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcoAGsUCSPo
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Catching up. Wow, Michelle Obama has come out swinging the bat.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Poole result was

    LD 2184
    Con 733
    UKIP 132
    Green 57
    Lab 45
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, will the truth out?

    Posted by 'Deplorable Trumpcat'. And they say his campaign doesn't know about demographics...
    What a bizarre post. Is there a PBers acceptable screen name from another application?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,023
    Broadstone,Poole: LD 2184, Con 733, UKIP 132, Green 57, Lab 45. LD gain from Con. The LD candidate was Vicki Slade who was the GE candidate in 2015.
  • I was joking earlier that the gorilla that escaped had heard about the Marmite shortages. Apparently the think he went ape because he had been put on a diet* !!!

    * not a joke.

    Brexit rations?
    La Brexitanie - douze points!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    slade said:

    Broadstone,Poole: LD 2184, Con 733, UKIP 132, Green 57, Lab 45. LD gain from Con. The LD candidate was Vicki Slade who was the GE candidate in 2015.

    Lab - 45, less than Greens.
  • slade said:

    Broadstone,Poole: LD 2184, Con 733, UKIP 132, Green 57, Lab 45. LD gain from Con. The LD candidate was Vicki Slade who was the GE candidate in 2015.

    Any relation? :)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Conservatives hold Kent CC Swanley

    Con 717
    UKIP 615
    Lab 518
    LDem 362
  • Conservatives hold Kent CC Swanley

    Con 717
    UKIP 615
    Lab 518
    LDem 362

    One of Boris's last acts as Mayor was to add Swanley station to the London Oystercard network.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    edited October 2016
    slade said:

    Broadstone,Poole: LD 2184, Con 733, UKIP 132, Green 57, Lab 45. LD gain from Con. The LD candidate was Vicki Slade who was the GE candidate in 2015.

    Relation?

    I remember canvassing the area in 05 and 15 - Annette Brooke's personal vote was massive, so the difference very stark; combined with the nationwide swing to the Tories and a very much Con improved GOTV operation, it is little wonder Michael Tomlinson won such a huge majority in the end.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    I have taken 5.5 to 1 on any sort of Trump win which is good enough. It's a longshot loser - I hope.

    Your investment is about to appear at a rally in Ohio. Nobody can say he's not putting in the work on the campaign trail.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcoAGsUCSPo
    Regardless of rallies, I'm more interested as to whether he can win an election. The PB Trumpers say he can. I'm on. The bookies think otherwise.

    To be perfectly honest, I think the Trumper is toast.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, will the truth out?

    Posted by 'Deplorable Trumpcat'. And they say his campaign doesn't know about demographics...
    What a bizarre post. Is there a PBers acceptable screen name from another application?
    Either put your house on Trump and tell us your bet or kindly leave the stage.
  • "Basket Case" on the Horror Channel :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Interesting stuff happening in Italy in December:

    https://constitution-unit.com/2016/10/13/all-you-need-to-know-about-the-italian-constitutional-referendum/#more-5379

    "The reform would curtail the powers of the Senate, the upper chamber of the Italian parliament. The number of senators would be reduced from 315 to 100, and they would no longer be directly elected. The reformed Senate would be comprised of 74 members of regional assemblies and 21 mayors – who would therefore wear a ‘double hat’. The remaining five senators would be appointed by the Italian President for special merits."

    Sort of reverse of what HoL reform campaigners want.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Jobabob said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, will the truth out?

    Posted by 'Deplorable Trumpcat'. And they say his campaign doesn't know about demographics...
    What a bizarre post. Is there a PBers acceptable screen name from another application?
    Either put your house on Trump and tell us your bet or kindly leave the stage.
    I'd guess Plato's house is already on Trump, judging by the number of posts
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    edited October 2016
    Jobabob said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, will the truth out?

    Posted by 'Deplorable Trumpcat'. And they say his campaign doesn't know about demographics...
    What a bizarre post. Is there a PBers acceptable screen name from another application?
    Either put your house on Trump and tell us your bet or kindly leave the stage.
    You seem to enjoy telling other people what to do. The internet (and independent thought) must be a nightmare for you.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    "I endorse Gary Johnson because he only touches himself."

    Err, ok...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Total crap, or at least this part is:

    "3. The “octopus” line about Trump is engineered persuasion of the highest order. It makes the story deeply visual and extra-creepy. Godzilla, or someone similarly skilled, is probably behind that word. It’s too engineered for a civilian to concoct during an interview. That’s professional work. And it’s probably a golden stake through Trump’s political heart. (Well played.)"

    I remember girls at Uni back in the 1980s who would complain about certain fellow male classmates who had 'wandering hands like an octopus".
  • Total crap, or at least this part is:

    "3. The “octopus” line about Trump is engineered persuasion of the highest order. It makes the story deeply visual and extra-creepy. Godzilla, or someone similarly skilled, is probably behind that word. It’s too engineered for a civilian to concoct during an interview. That’s professional work. And it’s probably a golden stake through Trump’s political heart. (Well played.)"

    I remember girls at Uni back in the 1980s who would complain about certain fellow male classmates who had 'wandering hands like an octopus".
    Did they report you?

    (just kidding!)
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    CHESTNIT

    Don't know which programme you were watching.Salmond and the guy from the former Indy were the only ones speaking any sense on QT. The audience were very pro Brexit but the arguments were with the Remainers. The audience reminded me of Wallpole's quote "Today they ring the bells. tomorrow their hands!"
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551

    Poole result was

    LD 2184
    Con 733
    UKIP 132
    Green 57
    Lab 45

    That looks like a good result for the LibDems.

    I think the May 2015 result was LibDem 2262, Con 2842.

    I can't work out the swing.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Catching up. Wow, Michelle Obama has come out swinging the bat.

    As I said, ignore the polls and look at behaviour. Going OTT on Trump looked weird.

    And deployment of Michelle whilst Hillary is AWOL.

    There's something up. Polling or stuff, who knows - but it's there.

    I think this is a great selection deal closer than it looks. Otherwise, why the uber smearing?

    It makes no sense.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    scotslass said:

    CHESTNIT

    Don't know which programme you were watching.Salmond and the guy from the former Indy were the only ones speaking any sense on QT. The audience were very pro Brexit but the arguments were with the Remainers. The audience reminded me of Wallpole's quote "Today they ring the bells. tomorrow their hands!"

    Salmond.

    Salmond was an irrelevance. The whole rationale behind the stupid 2nd referendum talk is to try and get the SNP a sliver of influence in GB politics. As with Lab and the LDs they've been totally blindsided and cast aside by Brexit.

    Amazing how few people see this. May has parked her tanks over EVERYONE's lawns.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Wow

    BBC
    News has broken that @HillaryClinton has been forced to submit to a federal judge under threat of perjury - @afneil https://t.co/LGBlYPBysJ
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, will the truth out?

    Posted by 'Deplorable Trumpcat'. And they say his campaign doesn't know about demographics...
    What a bizarre post. Is there a PBers acceptable screen name from another application?
    Either put your house on Trump and tell us your bet or kindly leave the stage.
    I'd guess Plato's house is already on Trump, judging by the number of posts
    I doubt she has a penny on
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    Total crap, or at least this part is:

    "3. The “octopus” line about Trump is engineered persuasion of the highest order. It makes the story deeply visual and extra-creepy. Godzilla, or someone similarly skilled, is probably behind that word. It’s too engineered for a civilian to concoct during an interview. That’s professional work. And it’s probably a golden stake through Trump’s political heart. (Well played.)"

    I remember girls at Uni back in the 1980s who would complain about certain fellow male classmates who had 'wandering hands like an octopus".
    I used to quite lke dilbert, in the 90s. It has been rather disappointing to discover that it's writer is a "persuasion expert", which seems to be barely one level above a "pick-up artist".

    He does seem to have some sense of humour intact tho, at least


    "Maybe Bill'll call, " she said to Sheila's glance. Sheila nibbled on
    a cuticle. "After last night, I thought maybe you'd be through with him." "I
    know what you mean. My God, he was like an octopus. Hands all over the place."
    She gestured, raising her arms upwards in defense. "The thing is, after a
    while, you get tired of fighting with him, you know, and after all I didn't
    really do anything Friday and Saturday so I kind of owed it to him. You know
    what I mean." She started to scratch. Sheila was giggling with her hand over
    her mouth. "I'll tell you, I felt the same way, and even after a while, " here
    she bent forward in a whisper, "I wanted to!" Now she was laughing very loudly."

    lyrics from The Gift, by the Velvet Underground, 1967
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Mortimer said:

    Jobabob said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, will the truth out?

    Posted by 'Deplorable Trumpcat'. And they say his campaign doesn't know about demographics...
    What a bizarre post. Is there a PBers acceptable screen name from another application?
    Either put your house on Trump and tell us your bet or kindly leave the stage.
    You seem to enjoy telling other people what to do. The internet (and independent thought) must be a nightmare for you.
    Not really, no.
This discussion has been closed.