The bust that came had little to do with the economic cycle that Brown thought he had tamed through counter-cyclical spending. Brown should be condemned for PFI but was otherwise one of our better chancellors.
May I present the current structural deficit built upon working tax credits. May I present the sheer number of Eastern Europeans here with children on working tax credits. And that's before I look back to 97 and the stamp duty changes that were the initial cause of the destruction of final salary pensions. You can argue that they were not viable in the long term but you can point at least one trigger to Brown's changes.
I think history will regard Brown as one of the worst chancellors of all time.
The malign meme of 'my property is my pension' took hold during the Brown years as well.
Hardly surprising as first your final salary and then you defined benefits pension were both destroyed.
Presently Trump's "Rust Belt Plus" strategy is in tatters. Pennsylvania and Michigan have deserted him. New Hampshire has gone, Trump has pulled out of Virginia, Ohio is trending Clinton as is Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona. His one brighter spot in Iowa is teetering too.
There is no path to 270 as the race stands for the Donald.
Trump needs one of these Wikileaks email surprises to contain anything even slightly surprising about Hillary. So far they've all been overhyped (not least by Trump's own pb PR team) damp squibs.
I suspect if there was something, we would have seen it by now.
Presently Trump's "Rust Belt Plus" strategy is in tatters. Pennsylvania and Michigan have deserted him. New Hampshire has gone, Trump has pulled out of Virginia, Ohio is trending Clinton as is Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona. His one brighter spot in Iowa is teetering too.
There is no path to 270 as the race stands for the Donald.
Trump needs one of these Wikileaks email surprises to contain anything even slightly surprising about Hillary. So far they've all been overhyped (not least by Trump's own pb PR team) damp squibs.
Indeed. I almost feel sorry for Plato that no one is paying any attention to the "shocking" extracts she posts from the Wikileaks emails.
The bust that came had little to do with the economic cycle that Brown thought he had tamed through counter-cyclical spending. Brown should be condemned for PFI but was otherwise one of our better chancellors.
May I present the current structural budget deficit built upon working tax credits. May I present the sheer number of Eastern Europeans here with children on working tax credits - this is probably the reason behind the leave vote. And that's before I look back to 97 and the stamp duty changes that were the initial cause of the destruction of final salary pensions. You can argue that they were not viable in the long term but you can point at least one trigger to Brown's changes.
I think history will regard Brown as one of the worst chancellors of all time.
Some Pharmaceuticals seem to be in short supply (particularly generics) at the moment, causing us a few prescribing issues. I am told that because of the low profiteability of these lines (driven down by NHS monopoly purchasing) that the companies supply other markets instead, particularly since the fall in the value of Sterling. Any thoughts or inside knowledge of this?
I would have thought that the value of sterling was significant. AFAIK the profit on some of these items is fairly low; it’s very much a volume driven market.
Very little inside klnowledge nowadays, but I could try a few contacts.
Re Unilever, there's an opportunity for UK based manufacturers to re-light the 'Made in Britain' campaign. Fly the flag!
I suspect this will be an eye opener for many people as to how much stuff is imported.
And they'll wonder who gained from shifting the production of so many 'British' brands abroad.
The problem is that for a great deal of stuff, and particularly complex consumer items, the concept of what is made here and abroad is rather elastic.
Is a radio assembled in this country from parts made abroad 'British'? Are the first few Hitachi trains, assembled at Newton Aycliffe fro components imported from Japan, British?
If someone want anything including electronics to be fully 'British' then they're out of luck. We're not well known for our fab plants ...
Certainly engineering has always had a dispersed and international component chain.
And few people are going to regard Hitachi as a British brand. Or Toyota and Nissan for that matter.
But there will be plenty who thought Colman's Mustard was made in Norfolk.
Indeed. I saw snippets of a program recently about breakfast cereals, and I was surprised that ?weetabix? (I hope that's the right one) uses grain not just from the UK, but from within a few miles of the factory.
But I disagree with: "Certainly engineering has always had a dispersed and international component chain.". Until the First World War, and possibly the second, that was not really the case. A ship made on Tyneside would be made using local iron, made from local iron ore and smelted using local coal. The guns would have come from a few miles upriver at Armstrong's.
Local ships from local resources for a global empire.
To think that only a few days ago we were giggling at how Skittles and Tic Tacs had become a political topic in the US. I wonder whether Tunnocks are sending condolences cards to Marmite?
I know we have enough popcorn at the moment with Brexit and the US Election but an independent Scotland would have been years of entertainment (and a lot of public sector jobs in my neck of the woods).
< Before the global financial crisis, Brown had been reducing debt inherited from the Conservatives, whose benign inheritance was caused directly by the complete collapse of their economic policy (indeed, you may recall that after being forced out of the EMU, Ken Clarke remarked it was the first time he'd known a government that did not have an economic policy). Neither debt nor deficit under Blair/Brown were particularly high by historical or international standards.
Not true. Between 1997 and 2000, the budget was in surplus and debt was reducing, partly due to tight restraints put in place by Clarke and partly due to one-off windfalls such as £47 billion for selling off various radio and TV digital frequencies. After 2000 public sector debt grew rapidly in both relative and absolute terms, partly due to the Iraq war but also due to huge public sector salary increases (headteachers' pay more than doubled in this period) which is one reason they are proving so hard to reverse. It had risen from 30% of GDP in 2000 to 36% in 2007, and that year we had a deficit of £50 billion. Bearing in mind rapid headline economic growth in this period, that was a sign of truly terrible financial management.
As an aside, although national debt was indeed low by historic standards the massive amount of private debt generated at the same time by massive mortgages in particular meant the economy as a whole was far more highly leveraged than in e.g. The 1950s.
Yes, it is true this was an international phenomenon. But that doesn't really let Brown off given that he posed as the man who had insulated Britain from the worst financial shocks, when what he was really doing by his policies was buying off short term trouble with the near certainty of long term catastrophe, which because of his hubris and lack of understanding of basic economics he simply could not see coming.
Absolutely. Brown should be condemned not because his decisions caused the crisis but because - just as the biggest boom was building towards a very big bust - this self-claimed economic genius was hubristicly telling his public that he had single-handedly abolished both.
The bust that came had little to do with the economic cycle that Brown thought he had tamed through counter-cyclical spending. Brown should be condemned for PFI but was otherwise one of our better chancellors.
You must be looking through very rose tinted glasses.
He was a disaster and not just us but our kids will be paying for the cleanup.
To think that only a few days ago we were giggling at how Skittles and Tic Tacs had become a political topic in the US. I wonder whether Tunnocks are sending condolences cards to Marmite?
Just pray that Hobnobs don't become collateral damage.
Depending on how pro EU you are, I'd argue that if you quite liked the way things were in this country circa 2002-04, then I think you should rank Blair last. He allowed the EU to expand and then didn't put in transition controls on migration. He sowed the seeds of Brexit.
Blair sowed the seeds of much of what's happening in British politics today.
I regard his 'forces of conservatism' speech as far more fascistic than anything we've heard in recent years, even post-Brexit.
It's a great speech. Tackling the cancer of conservatism remains a critical task.
Presently Trump's "Rust Belt Plus" strategy is in tatters. Pennsylvania and Michigan have deserted him. New Hampshire has gone, Trump has pulled out of Virginia, Ohio is trending Clinton as is Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona. His one brighter spot in Iowa is teetering too.
There is no path to 270 as the race stands for the Donald.
Trump needs one of these Wikileaks email surprises to contain anything even slightly surprising about Hillary. So far they've all been overhyped (not least by Trump's own pb PR team) damp squibs.
Indeed. I almost feel sorry for Plato that no one is paying any attention to the "shocking" extracts she posts from the Wikileaks emails.
Almost.
Hey she is just reflecting middle americans, who care less about trump being a racist who boasts about sexually assaulting women, and more about chelsea clinton not getting on with someone and the DNC preferring Bernie sanders not to be nominee
Anyone else watch the piece on Sky news this morning
"rising transport costs" - remind me of the price of marmite when fuel was much higher priced than it is now.
No, a company which sells products (often in identical packaging) across Europe and who are seeing wholesalers switch to UK supplies undercutting continental ones.
Also a company that was publicly strongly in favour of REMAIN - so they should have anticipated this sort of reaction. The PR handling is appalling....
Anyone else watch the piece on Sky news this morning
"rising transport costs" - remind me of the price of marmite when fuel was much higher priced than it is now.
You have to feel sorry for them - what they have done is entirely logical and defensible, economically and commercially - but impossible to defend as PR.
Comparing them with Nate Silver's state-by-state estimates and averaging the three, the Clinton leads are around 0.5% bigger in the new polls.
Clearly Trump can't win unless there is either: (1) a systematic error in the polls or (2) a swing of 3-4% back to him.
1) would be a massive crisis in polling if true 2) Its down to Clinton to screw up. Cant see Trump having the skill or personaility to do anything to improve his standing
I guess the question on Cameron (which we're many years away from being able to answer) is does his Brexit "failure' (sic) outweigh his other successes.....
LOL at the "middling Churchill" trollement" (EDIT: Ah, OK missed the 'post-war' bit)
what are Cameron's successes? Didn't break anything too badly during the first term when Nick was helping him?
I'd list Cameron's successes as:
- Creating and running a stable coalition government that went to full term (recall how this site was thick with 'Govt will fall by October 2010' predictions)
- Getting the economy moving and starting to bring the public finances under control
- SindyRef & AV
- Winning a second term.
Of course if BREXIT is the unmitigated disaster the remoaners wish for would have us believe, then all of these are overshadowed - but I think that is what has weighed heavily in the academics' estimation of him.....
Your conversion from europhile Cameroon to Mayite eurosceptic shill is one of the hardest things to swallow on here. You work for CCHQ and just spin the government line of the day. No other explanation stands up to any scrutiny. Thank God for Tories like TSE and - yes - ScottP. They have their own mind.
Actually I think it is a serious issue for May and Hammond too. How is it that Scotland gets 20% extra public spending per head (including free prescriptions) and at the same time discriminates against English students? We may not now be seeking to return to an overall surplus in the UK quite as fast as Osborne wanted, but we still have a horrible deficit that can't be ignored. Sorting out Scottish spendthrift bollocks is going to have to be a significant element in the solution. Bring Scottish spending in line with the average.
Mr. B2, not so sure we do have to feel sorry for them.
Raising prices on items sourced abroad due to exchange rate changes would be seen as fair enough. Doing so for entirely UK-sourced products appears to be taking the piss.
Anyone else watch the piece on Sky news this morning
"rising transport costs" - remind me of the price of marmite when fuel was much higher priced than it is now.
No, a company which sells products (often in identical packaging) across Europe and who are seeing wholesalers switch to UK supplies undercutting continental ones.
Also a company that was publicly strongly in favour of REMAIN - so they should have anticipated this sort of reaction. The PR handling is appalling....
Tesco is regularly in supplier disputes judging by mass brand disappearances from time to time. Whomever owns Schwartz is clearly one of them.
That's incredible. And he's in charge of international trade?
Spoof account.
Ah, okay. Oops. At least I didn't post it.
Went to a talk on memory last night. The speaker sjowed us a slide of Pre. Bush, at the time of Hurricane Katrina entertaining a baseball star at hias ranch. Apparently you were more likely to “remember" it if you were an opponent of Bush than if you were a supporter!
Note; it didn’t happen. Bush was staying in the White House when he said and did little about Katrina. He wasn’t off on a jolly.
Comparing them with Nate Silver's state-by-state estimates and averaging the three, the Clinton leads are around 0.5% bigger in the new polls.
Clearly Trump can't win unless there is either: (1) a systematic error in the polls or (2) a swing of 3-4% back to him.
1) would be a massive crisis in polling if true 2) Its down to Clinton to screw up. Cant see Trump having the skill or personaility to do anything to improve his standing
This election has been all (or nearly all) about Trump. He's liked that. Problem is, he's also pretty much maxed out his support and it's not enough. He needs to take Hillary down but it'll be difficult because his current attack-lines are known quantities and as such, those who might be swung by them probably already have been.
More problematically, there's a good chance that for the rest of the campaign, he's going to be fighting off abuse allegations, quite possibly backed up by hard evidence. Hillary might be far from the best person to throw stones there but she doesn't have to if women keep coming forward direct to the media.
Trump needs one of these Wikileaks email surprises to contain anything even slightly surprising about Hillary. So far they've all been overhyped (not least by Trump's own pb PR team) damp squibs.
Wikileaks is providing Trump with ammunition but it appears to be largely discounted by many voters. They know Clinton is deeply flawed but simply see Trump as far worse.
I must say this morning I found the Trump tape about dating a young girl ten year hence very creepy and IMO will play very badly on top of pussygate.
Anyone else watch the piece on Sky news this morning
"rising transport costs" - remind me of the price of marmite when fuel was much higher priced than it is now.
You have to feel sorry for them - what they have done is entirely logical and defensible, economically and commercially - but impossible to defend as PR.
And it makes the supermarkets (and especially Tescos) as being the consumers' champions.
Its going to be epic here on Nov 9th if Trump does manage to win.
On the verboten list.
"It's going to be hilarious/epic etc if [nasty right winger] wins."
It will be excellent if Hillary wins as it will stop the nasty anti-immigrant, anti-intellectual Red BNP juggernaut in its tracks. And the unpleasant Platoite wing of PB will STFU.
Actually I think it is a serious issue for May and Hammond too. How is it that Scotland gets 20% extra public spending per head (including free prescriptions) and at the same time discriminates against English students? We may not now be seeking to return to an overall surplus in the UK quite as fast as Osborne wanted, but we still have a horrible deficit that can't be ignored. Sorting out Scottish spendthrift bollocks is going to have to be a significant element in the solution. Bring Scottish spending in line with the average.
A lot of Osborne's pronouncements on budget surpluses were for taking potshots at Labour rather than for serious economic policy. Maybe he was a true-believing deficit hawk in opposition: who knows? Certainly in office he soon abandoned his Plan A while keeping the name Plan A, and was quick enough to kick his targets into the future every year. Of course, the last Chancellor actually to run a budget surplus was Gordon Brown.
Comparing them with Nate Silver's state-by-state estimates and averaging the three, the Clinton leads are around 0.5% bigger in the new polls.
Clearly Trump can't win unless there is either: (1) a systematic error in the polls or (2) a swing of 3-4% back to him.
1) would be a massive crisis in polling if true 2) Its down to Clinton to screw up. Cant see Trump having the skill or personaility to do anything to improve his standing
1) May 2015, June 2016. And from what I can make out the US pollsters are not nearly as good as the British ones who still systematically underestimated Tory/Leave voters
Comparing them with Nate Silver's state-by-state estimates and averaging the three, the Clinton leads are around 0.5% bigger in the new polls.
Clearly Trump can't win unless there is either: (1) a systematic error in the polls or (2) a swing of 3-4% back to him.
1) would be a massive crisis in polling if true 2) Its down to Clinton to screw up. Cant see Trump having the skill or personaility to do anything to improve his standing
This election has been all (or nearly all) about Trump. He's liked that. Problem is, he's also pretty much maxed out his support and it's not enough. He needs to take Hillary down but it'll be difficult because his current attack-lines are known quantities and as such, those who might be swung by them probably already have been.
More problematically, there's a good chance that for the rest of the campaign, he's going to be fighting off abuse allegations, quite possibly backed up by hard evidence. Hillary might be far from the best person to throw stones there but she doesn't have to if women keep coming forward direct to the media.
also, Trumps shitty 'Clinton was horrible to people accusing Bill' line work less well when he and his surrogates are attacking women who accuse him of sexual assault
FWIW I prefer Bovril. Is that also a Unilever product? Made in the UK?
According to Wiki, made in Burton-on-Trent and South Africa.
I lived near Burton as a child, and the smells over the town were always quite nice. Unlike the Nestle factory in nearby Hatton, where the smell of coffee was always rather too strong.
As an aside, my dad used to drive past the Nestle factory, roll down his window and shout 'Maxwell House!" at the workers...
FWIW I prefer Bovril. Is that also a Unilever product? Made in the UK?
According to Wiki, made in Burton-on-Trent and South Africa.
I lived near Burton as a child, and the smells over the town were always quite nice. Unlike the Nestle factory in nearby Hatton, where the smell of coffee was always rather too strong.
As an aside, my dad used to drive past the Nestle factory, roll down his window and shout 'Maxwell House!" at the workers...
So why didnt Unilever cut the price significantly when the SA Rand collapsed a while back?
Yes but can they subpoena during the next three weeks before the election? Trump is presumably suing to warn off the others. After that, he can settle.
FWIW I prefer Bovril. Is that also a Unilever product? Made in the UK?
According to Wiki, made in Burton-on-Trent and South Africa.
I lived near Burton as a child, and the smells over the town were always quite nice. Unlike the Nestle factory in nearby Hatton, where the smell of coffee was always rather too strong.
As an aside, my dad used to drive past the Nestle factory, roll down his window and shout 'Maxwell House!" at the workers...
I think the smell of coffee being roasted is great.
Comparing them with Nate Silver's state-by-state estimates and averaging the three, the Clinton leads are around 0.5% bigger in the new polls.
Clearly Trump can't win unless there is either: (1) a systematic error in the polls or (2) a swing of 3-4% back to him.
1) would be a massive crisis in polling if true 2) Its down to Clinton to screw up. Cant see Trump having the skill or personaility to do anything to improve his standing
1) May 2015, June 2016. And from what I can make out the US pollsters are not nearly as good as the British ones who still systematically underestimated Tory/Leave voters
Yes, this is the wet dream of the PB Trumper fraternity - who think having a straight up racist in charge of the world's most powerful country will be "epic" "hilarious" and "fun" because it will upset the Guardian.
I've taken back control and had jam instead of Marmite with my toast this morning!
corbynite!
It was home made as well (brought from local farm shop) I might email Jezza's office and ask for his Jam making recipe now that Marmite is being rationed....
I guess the question on Cameron (which we're many years away from being able to answer) is does his Brexit "failure' (sic) outweigh his other successes.....
LOL at the "middling Churchill" trollement" (EDIT: Ah, OK missed the 'post-war' bit)
what are Cameron's successes? Didn't break anything too badly during the first term when Nick was helping him?
I'd list Cameron's successes as:
- Creating and running a stable coalition government that went to full term (recall how this site was thick with 'Govt will fall by October 2010' predictions)
- Getting the economy moving and starting to bring the public finances under control
- SindyRef & AV
- Winning a second term.
Of course if BREXIT is the unmitigated disaster the remoaners wish for would have us believe, then all of these are overshadowed - but I think that is what has weighed heavily in the academics' estimation of him.....
Your conversion from europhile Cameroon to Mayite eurosceptic shill is one of the hardest things to swallow on here. You work for CCHQ and just spin the government line of the day. No other explanation stands up to any scrutiny. Thank God for Tories like TSE and - yes - ScottP. They have their own mind.
You're more entertaining (which isn't saying much) when you are proposing banning things....
Comparing them with Nate Silver's state-by-state estimates and averaging the three, the Clinton leads are around 0.5% bigger in the new polls.
Clearly Trump can't win unless there is either: (1) a systematic error in the polls or (2) a swing of 3-4% back to him.
1) would be a massive crisis in polling if true 2) Its down to Clinton to screw up. Cant see Trump having the skill or personaility to do anything to improve his standing
1) May 2015, June 2016. And from what I can make out the US pollsters are not nearly as good as the British ones who still systematically underestimated Tory/Leave voters
Yes, this is the wet dream of the PB Trumper fraternity - who think having a straight up racist in charge of the world's most powerful country will be "epic" "hilarious" and "fun" because it will upset the Guardian.
Comparing them with Nate Silver's state-by-state estimates and averaging the three, the Clinton leads are around 0.5% bigger in the new polls.
Clearly Trump can't win unless there is either: (1) a systematic error in the polls or (2) a swing of 3-4% back to him.
1) would be a massive crisis in polling if true 2) Its down to Clinton to screw up. Cant see Trump having the skill or personaility to do anything to improve his standing
1) May 2015, June 2016. And from what I can make out the US pollsters are not nearly as good as the British ones who still systematically underestimated Tory/Leave voters
Nonetheless, Trump is horrible, in a way that the Conservatives and Vote Leave are not. And, the thought of someone so erratic being in charge of the World's largest nuclear arsenal is alarming.
FWIW I prefer Bovril. Is that also a Unilever product? Made in the UK?
According to Wiki, made in Burton-on-Trent and South Africa.
I lived near Burton as a child, and the smells over the town were always quite nice. Unlike the Nestle factory in nearby Hatton, where the smell of coffee was always rather too strong.
As an aside, my dad used to drive past the Nestle factory, roll down his window and shout 'Maxwell House!" at the workers...
Well there we are then. Spread Bovril on yer toast!
1) May 2015, June 2016. And from what I can make out the US pollsters are not nearly as good as the British ones who still systematically underestimated Tory/Leave voters
US pollsters are certainly a mixed bag. ARG and Rasmussen have at times been appalling. Suffolk in 12 stop polling Florida and Virginia because they were in the bag for Romney ..
The 538 guide to pollsters is very useful. There are some excellent firms operating stateside whose accuracy is to be admired. I expect them to perform well again this cycle.
Mr. B2, not so sure we do have to feel sorry for them.
Raising prices on items sourced abroad due to exchange rate changes would be seen as fair enough. Doing so for entirely UK-sourced products appears to be taking the piss.
I was just looking at it from their point of view. Unilever is a conglomerate of companies making a wide range of products most of which end up for sale in our supermarkets. All of the producing companies have their production targets and pricing strategies fixed based on anticipated demand. Out of the blue comes a shock event that is almost unique - changing the cost of some products significantly more than others - and is a moving target, might be temporary, might get worse. If the prices of some food products change suddenly more than others, consumers will respond by adjusting their spending patterns (logically domestically produced produce should - and eventually will - become a lot more popular as people substitute cabbage for aubergine etc.) and suddenly they will need to produce a lot more of some things and a lot less of others. Except that in a few months time everything may have changed again.
In such circumstances I suggest any of us managing their pricing would simply cover our financial position by applying the increase in costs broadly and crudely across our product range - leaving the tricky and detailed price remodelling until later once the fallout becomes much clearer.
As I say, logical and sensible - but unlucky that the marmite issue has sunk their PR so quickly. Credit to Tesco for going straight for the weak spot!
FWIW I prefer Bovril. Is that also a Unilever product? Made in the UK?
According to Wiki, made in Burton-on-Trent and South Africa.
I lived near Burton as a child, and the smells over the town were always quite nice. Unlike the Nestle factory in nearby Hatton, where the smell of coffee was always rather too strong.
As an aside, my dad used to drive past the Nestle factory, roll down his window and shout 'Maxwell House!" at the workers...
I think the smell of coffee being roasted is great.
It can. The smell around the factory could be rather strong, though.
A friend lived in the countryside a couple of miles away, and if the wind was in the right direction you could smell coffee all day.
While the figures are indeed alarming, I'm a bit surprised at the spin Mori put on them - in reality, we're statistically tied with Germany (which still counts as a major economy, I think...) on this measure.
So, we're xenophobic, but not uniquely xenophobic.
Anyone else watch the piece on Sky news this morning
"rising transport costs" - remind me of the price of marmite when fuel was much higher priced than it is now.
You have to feel sorry for them - what they have done is entirely logical and defensible, economically and commercially - but impossible to defend as PR.
I suspect what's happened:
Post Brexit vote -
Unilever HQ to Unilever UK 'Eh....what about pricing?' 'We're carefully monitoring it'
Two weeks ago: Unilever HQ 'WHAT ABOUT PRICING???' Unilever UK 'We're considering a series of modest increases'
Last week: Unilever HQ 'WHEN?????' UK: 'Soon'
This week Unilever HQ 'Put the F*cking price up! UK (sotto voce) 'you'll be sorry....'
I guess the question on Cameron (which we're many years away from being able to answer) is does his Brexit "failure' (sic) outweigh his other successes.....
LOL at the "middling Churchill" trollement" (EDIT: Ah, OK missed the 'post-war' bit)
what are Cameron's successes? Didn't break anything too badly during the first term when Nick was helping him?
I'd list Cameron's successes as:
- Creating and running a stable coalition government that went to full term (recall how this site was thick with 'Govt will fall by October 2010' predictions)
- Getting the economy moving and starting to bring the public finances under control
- SindyRef & AV
- Winning a second term.
Of course if BREXIT is the unmitigated disaster the remoaners wish for would have us believe, then all of these are overshadowed - but I think that is what has weighed heavily in the academics' estimation of him.....
Your conversion from europhile Cameroon to Mayite eurosceptic shill is one of the hardest things to swallow on here. You work for CCHQ and just spin the government line of the day. No other explanation stands up to any scrutiny. Thank God for Tories like TSE and - yes - ScottP. They have their own mind.
You're more entertaining (which isn't saying much) when you are proposing banning things....
Ha! I think the word you are looking for is ... 'rumbled'...
Comparing them with Nate Silver's state-by-state estimates and averaging the three, the Clinton leads are around 0.5% bigger in the new polls.
Clearly Trump can't win unless there is either: (1) a systematic error in the polls or (2) a swing of 3-4% back to him.
1) would be a massive crisis in polling if true 2) Its down to Clinton to screw up. Cant see Trump having the skill or personaility to do anything to improve his standing
1) May 2015, June 2016. And from what I can make out the US pollsters are not nearly as good as the British ones who still systematically underestimated Tory/Leave voters
The pollsters might have got it wrong -- but in which direction? The most obvious problem is they might be missing previous non-voters who will turn out for Trump.
But there was some analysis on 538 which showed it was not actually Trump drawing this crowd -- it was Bernie Sanders. So if the polls are under-sampling Bernie's erstwhile supporters, are they more likely to vote for Hillary (same party, Establishment) or Trump (wrong party and while he is a political outsider, he is famously a billionaire property developer)?
"They know Clinton is deeply flawed but simply see Trump as far worse."
That's always been the issue, hasn't it? In your day ... sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me. Nowadays, words, or even mis-speaks are far more important than deeds.
A wall to stop Mexican immigrants? How long is the US - Mexican border? And the Mexican government will pay for it? Worth a chortle at best, but clearly a joke. What will he do were he to be elected? Who really knows?
HRC ... more of the same. An unpalatable choice but I suspect they'll decide on words so Trump is doomed.
Comparing them with Nate Silver's state-by-state estimates and averaging the three, the Clinton leads are around 0.5% bigger in the new polls.
Clearly Trump can't win unless there is either: (1) a systematic error in the polls or (2) a swing of 3-4% back to him.
1) would be a massive crisis in polling if true 2) Its down to Clinton to screw up. Cant see Trump having the skill or personaility to do anything to improve his standing
1) May 2015, June 2016. And from what I can make out the US pollsters are not nearly as good as the British ones who still systematically underestimated Tory/Leave voters
Yes, this is the wet dream of the PB Trumper fraternity - who think having a straight up racist in charge of the world's most powerful country will be "epic" "hilarious" and "fun" because it will upset the Guardian.
This Marmite saga does point to a deeper risk for EU traders into the UK. If we get into tariffs and pricing disputes via a 'hard' Brexit we will see consumers just shift their preferences in many cases. It won't be a profit margin squeeze but a sales collapse for some. Millions of EU jobs depend on UK sales too - the dependency in much stronger this way than UK jobs being dependent on EU sales.
In a fully globalised and debt laden world all countries are in a devaluation arms race. The UK has just managed by the back door to achieve a significant movement in its currency - back towards fair value. We're very lucky. AEP has a decent article on a similar theme in today's Telegraph.
FWIW I prefer Bovril. Is that also a Unilever product? Made in the UK?
According to Wiki, made in Burton-on-Trent and South Africa.
I lived near Burton as a child, and the smells over the town were always quite nice. Unlike the Nestle factory in nearby Hatton, where the smell of coffee was always rather too strong.
As an aside, my dad used to drive past the Nestle factory, roll down his window and shout 'Maxwell House!" at the workers...
I think the smell of coffee being roasted is great.
It can. The smell around the factory could be rather strong, though.
A friend lived in the countryside a couple of miles away, and if the wind was in the right direction you could smell coffee all day.
I remember having a holiday in the North East some years back at the time of all the tortilla chip adverts with the strapline "made in medolmsley road consett" and going to find medolmsley road, out of curiosity. I could probably have found it by following the increasingly strong smell of tortilla chips, which wafted over the town.
Anyone else watch the piece on Sky news this morning
"rising transport costs" - remind me of the price of marmite when fuel was much higher priced than it is now.
You have to feel sorry for them - what they have done is entirely logical and defensible, economically and commercially - but impossible to defend as PR.
I suspect what's happened:
Post Brexit vote -
Unilever HQ to Unilever UK 'Eh....what about pricing?' 'We're carefully monitoring it'
Two weeks ago: Unilever HQ 'WHAT ABOUT PRICING???' Unilever UK 'We're considering a series of modest increases'
Last week: Unilever HQ 'WHEN?????' UK: 'Soon'
This week Unilever HQ 'Put the F*cking price up! UK (sotto voce) 'you'll be sorry....'
I do feel sorry for the person in the UK who decided to put the price of everything up including the ones (Marmite) that are unique to the UK. Clearly someone forgot where their biggest customer previously worked.
This Marmite saga does point to a deeper risk for EU traders into the UK. If we get into tariffs and pricing disputes via a 'hard' Brexit we will see consumers just shift their preferences in many cases. It won't be a profit margin squeeze but a sales collapse for some.
In a fully globalised and debt laden world all countries are in a devaluation arms race. The UK has just managed by the back door to achieve a significant movement in its currency - back towards fair value. We're very lucky. AEP has a decent article on a similar theme in today's Telegraph.
I'm not sure consumers will change their preference to a large degree. The media will persecute one or two brands, whilst others who are more canny or lucky will emerge unscathed.
As an aside, what d you see as the 'fair value' for the pound?
I guess the question on Cameron (which we're many years away from being able to answer) is does his Brexit "failure' (sic) outweigh his other successes.....
LOL at the "middling Churchill" trollement" (EDIT: Ah, OK missed the 'post-war' bit)
what are Cameron's successes? Didn't break anything too badly during the first term when Nick was helping him?
I'd list Cameron's successes as:
- Creating and running a stable coalition government that went to full term (recall how this site was thick with 'Govt will fall by October 2010' predictions)
- Getting the economy moving and starting to bring the public finances under control
- SindyRef & AV
- Winning a second term.
Of course if BREXIT is the unmitigated disaster the remoaners wish for would have us believe, then all of these are overshadowed - but I think that is what has weighed heavily in the academics' estimation of him.....
Your conversion from europhile Cameroon to Mayite eurosceptic shill is one of the hardest things to swallow on here. You work for CCHQ and just spin the government line of the day. No other explanation stands up to any scrutiny. Thank God for Tories like TSE and - yes - ScottP. They have their own mind.
You're more entertaining (which isn't saying much) when you are proposing banning things....
Ha! I think the word you are looking for is ... 'rumbled'...
The word you're looking for is 'delusional'.
How many CCHQ researchers do you think there are who went to University 40 years ago?
This Marmite saga does point to a deeper risk for EU traders into the UK. If we get into tariffs and pricing disputes via a 'hard' Brexit we will see consumers just shift their preferences in many cases. It won't be a profit margin squeeze but a sales collapse for some.
In a fully globalised and debt laden world all countries are in a devaluation arms race. The UK has just managed by the back door to achieve a significant movement in its currency - back towards fair value. We're very lucky. AEP has a decent article on a similar theme in today's Telegraph.
I'm not sure consumers will change their preference to a large degree. The media will persecute one or two brands, whilst others who are more canny or lucky will emerge unscathed.
As an aside, what d you see as the 'fair value' for the pound?
The IMF see fair value to the USD as around $1.10:
I guess the question on Cameron (which we're many years away from being able to answer) is does his Brexit "failure' (sic) outweigh his other successes.....
LOL at the "middling Churchill" trollement" (EDIT: Ah, OK missed the 'post-war' bit)
what are Cameron's successes? Didn't break anything too badly during the first term when Nick was helping him?
I'd list Cameron's successes as:
- Creating and running a stable coalition government that went to full term (recall how this site was thick with 'Govt will fall by October 2010' predictions)
- Getting the economy moving and starting to bring the public finances under control
- SindyRef & AV
- Winning a second term.
Of course if BREXIT is the unmitigated disaster the remoaners wish for would have us believe, then all of these are overshadowed - but I think that is what has weighed heavily in the academics' estimation of him.....
Your conversion from europhile Cameroon to Mayite eurosceptic shill is one of the hardest things to swallow on here. You work for CCHQ and just spin the government line of the day. No other explanation stands up to any scrutiny. Thank God for Tories like TSE and - yes - ScottP. They have their own mind.
You're more entertaining (which isn't saying much) when you are proposing banning things....
Ha! I think the word you are looking for is ... 'rumbled'...
The word you're looking for is 'delusional'.
How many CCHQ researchers do you think there are who went to University 40 years ago?
I didn't say you were a researcher! In any case, I'm not going to bully your identity out of you - that's not nice. I more just interested in your inexplicable Damascene conversion to Mayite euroscepticism!!
"They know Clinton is deeply flawed but simply see Trump as far worse."
That's always been the issue, hasn't it? In your day ... sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me. Nowadays, words, or even mis-speaks are far more important than deeds.
A wall to stop Mexican immigrants? How long is the US - Mexican border? And the Mexican government will pay for it? Worth a chortle at best, but clearly a joke. What will he do were he to be elected? Who really knows?
HRC ... more of the same. An unpalatable choice but I suspect they'll decide on words so Trump is doomed.
Very early on I called the primary races and the general election.
Trump = President Clinton.
Sufficient disaffected GOP voters would propel Trump to the nomination where he would face Clinton whose machine would eventually overwhelm Bernie.
Worsening demographics and faced with a poor choice the punters would opt for the least worst option and propel Hillary to the White House.
The Unilever/Tesco spat is easy to resolve . Unilever simply say , if you want to pay in Euros or another sound currency there is no price increase at all , if you want to pay in pounds sterling a currency which even Brexiteers think is worthless the price increase is 20%
I wonder how long it will be before British people are a minority in Remainastan:
' Net change from internal migration can be in both directions. As a whole there was a net flow from city regions to the Rest of the UK, with Greater London in particular having a large net outflow. However, some city regions, especially Bristol and Edinburgh, had net inflow.
All areas saw a population gain from international migration, meaning there were more immigrants than emigrants. However, the proportional increase in Greater London was more than twice that in any other city region and 3 city regions (Cardiff, Liverpool and Glasgow) had a lower proportional increase than the Rest of the UK.
...
On internal migration estimates too Greater London is distinctive, as demonstrated in Figure 4. Its net internal migration outflow between mid-2011 and mid-2015 was equivalent to 3.1% of its mid-2011 population; this was more than 3 times greater than for West Midlands, the city region with the next highest net outflow rate. Bristol had the highest net inflow rate over this period, at 1.4% of its mid-2011 population. '
Renting a room in a flat above a Lambeth shop or Hackney takeaway might be the dream of immigrants from Eastern Europe and the Third World. But I suspect the average British person would rather own their own semi detached in Blueland.
Britain's net migration will likely turn negative in the next couple of years.
It's worth remembering that Sterling's cheapness already discourages migration. If you're a Polish builder who sends back £200/week to your family in Gdansk, the amount receieved has fallen by 15%. Working in Germany - where rents are lower, the family is closer and the wages are now comparable - suddenly looks a bit more attractive. If we have a little bit of inflation too, that will further squeeze how much said Pole can send back.
I guess the question on Cameron (which we're many years away from being able to answer) is does his Brexit "failure' (sic) outweigh his other successes.....
LOL at the "middling Churchill" trollement" (EDIT: Ah, OK missed the 'post-war' bit)
what are Cameron's successes? Didn't break anything too badly during the first term when Nick was helping him?
I'd list Cameron's successes as:
- Creating and running a stable coalition government that went to full term (recall how this site was thick with 'Govt will fall by October 2010' predictions)
- Getting the economy moving and starting to bring the public finances under control
- SindyRef & AV
- Winning a second term.
Of course if BREXIT is the unmitigated disaster the remoaners wish for would have us believe, then all of these are overshadowed - but I think that is what has weighed heavily in the academics' estimation of him.....
Your conversion from europhile Cameroon to Mayite eurosceptic shill is one of the hardest things to swallow on here. You work for CCHQ and just spin the government line of the day. No other explanation stands up to any scrutiny. Thank God for Tories like TSE and - yes - ScottP. They have their own mind.
You're more entertaining (which isn't saying much) when you are proposing banning things....
Ha! I think the word you are looking for is ... 'rumbled'...
The word you're looking for is 'delusional'.
How many CCHQ researchers do you think there are who went to University 40 years ago?
I didn't say you were a researcher! In any case, I'm not going to bully your identity out of you - that's not nice. I more just interested in your inexplicable Damascene conversion to Mayite euroscepticism!!
I'm not a 'Mayite eurosceptic'.
I knew May personally at University, so possibly have a better measure of her than others.
I'm a Remainer who accepts we're leaving the EU.....or are those too many facts to process?
This Marmite saga does point to a deeper risk for EU traders into the UK. If we get into tariffs and pricing disputes via a 'hard' Brexit we will see consumers just shift their preferences in many cases. It won't be a profit margin squeeze but a sales collapse for some.
In a fully globalised and debt laden world all countries are in a devaluation arms race. The UK has just managed by the back door to achieve a significant movement in its currency - back towards fair value. We're very lucky. AEP has a decent article on a similar theme in today's Telegraph.
I'm not sure consumers will change their preference to a large degree. The media will persecute one or two brands, whilst others who are more canny or lucky will emerge unscathed.
As an aside, what d you see as the 'fair value' for the pound?
The IMF see fair value to the USD as around $1.10:
I would suggest we can hit $1 before the pound starts to recover as markets often overshoot.
The biggest losers from the sterling drop are the core Tory voters and this will be the biggest challenge for TM. Pensions will become less valuable as will housing assets. The winners will be skilled workers especially with technical skills.
The Unilever/Tesco spat is easy to resolve . Unilever simply say , if you want to pay in Euros or another sound currency there is no price increase at all , if you want to pay in pounds sterling a currency which even Brexiteers think is worthless the price increase is 20%
I think what people are missing is that Tesco have removed Unilever items from sale, not the other way around. They could have sold their existing stock or agreed to the price rise.
In the end a 2-3% rise will be agreed, Tesco will pass on 1-2% and some people will try other brands and switch in the longer term which hurts Unilever. The latter is why Tesco have taken the products off their website and away from stores.
I guess the question on Cameron (which we're many years away from being able to answer) is does his Brexit "failure' (sic) outweigh his other successes.....
LOL at the "middling Churchill" trollement" (EDIT: Ah, OK missed the 'post-war' bit)
what are Cameron's successes? Didn't break anything too badly during the first term when Nick was helping him?
I'd list Cameron's successes as:
- Creating and running a stable coalition government that went to full term (recall how this site was thick with 'Govt will fall by October 2010' predictions)
- Getting the economy moving and starting to bring the public finances under control
- SindyRef & AV
- Winning a second term.
Of course if BREXIT is the unmitigated disaster the remoaners wish for would have us believe, then all of these are overshadowed - but I think that is what has weighed heavily in the academics' estimation of him.....
Your conversion from europhile Cameroon to Mayite eurosceptic shill is one of the hardest things to swallow on here. You work for CCHQ and just spin the government line of the day. No other explanation stands up to any scrutiny. Thank God for Tories like TSE and - yes - ScottP. They have their own mind.
You're more entertaining (which isn't saying much) when you are proposing banning things....
Ha! I think the word you are looking for is ... 'rumbled'...
The word you're looking for is 'delusional'.
How many CCHQ researchers do you think there are who went to University 40 years ago?
If we get involved in military action in Syria would it be: 1. With Assad against ISIL? 2. With Rebels against Assad? 3. With Rebels against ISIL? 4. With ISIL against Assad? 5. A more exotic combination involving Russia, Turkey, Kurds, USA, Momentum or Mickey Mouse?
What outcome is worth the bones of a British Grenadier in Syria?
It was interesting listening to TM at PM questions that she saw the Softbank purchase of ARM as a major investment by Japanese companies. The reality is that this was a debt leveraged smash and grab acquisition of the most valuable family of patents owned by the UK. I was a reluctant seller of my shares in ARM.
If our PM cannot understand the difference between selling the family silver and new investment then I feel we are lost.
I guess the question on Cameron (which we're many years away from being able to answer) is does his Brexit "failure' (sic) outweigh his other successes.....
LOL at the "middling Churchill" trollement" (EDIT: Ah, OK missed the 'post-war' bit)
what are Cameron's successes? Didn't break anything too badly during the first term when Nick was helping him?
I'd list Cameron's successes as:
- Creating and running a stable coalition government that went to full term (recall how this site was thick with 'Govt will fall by October 2010' predictions)
- Getting the economy moving and starting to bring the public finances under control
- SindyRef & AV
- Winning a second term.
Of course if BREXIT is the unmitigated disaster the remoaners wish for would have us believe, then all of these are overshadowed - but I think that is what has weighed heavily in the academics' estimation of him.....
Your conversion from europhile Cameroon to Mayite eurosceptic shill is one of the hardest things to swallow on here. You work for CCHQ and just spin the government line of the day. No other explanation stands up to any scrutiny. Thank God for Tories like TSE and - yes - ScottP. They have their own mind.
You're more entertaining (which isn't saying much) when you are proposing banning things....
Ha! I think the word you are looking for is ... 'rumbled'...
The word you're looking for is 'delusional'.
How many CCHQ researchers do you think there are who went to University 40 years ago?
I didn't say you were a researcher! In any case, I'm not going to bully your identity out of you - that's not nice. I more just interested in your inexplicable Damascene conversion to Mayite euroscepticism!!
Carlotta can speak for herself, but many eurosceptics who reluctantly voted Remain are now pretty happy with Brexit. One recent Com Res poll found 62% were happy with Brexit, compared to 26% who were unhappy. She's representative of quite of people.
Britain's net migration will likely turn negative in the next couple of years.
It's worth remembering that Sterling's cheapness already discourages migration. If you're a Polish builder who sends back £200/week to your family in Gdansk, the amount receieved has fallen by 15%. Working in Germany - where rents are lower, the family is closer and the wages are now comparable - suddenly looks a bit more attractive. If we have a little bit of inflation too, that will further squeeze how much said Pole can send back.
Those who are here on construction related contracts such as the Nine Elms/Battersea development or Crossrail will presumably see out the contract but once that's done they may find it less tempting to stay.
It was interesting listening to TM at MP questions that she saw the Softbank purchase of ARM as a major investment by Japanese companies. The reality is that this was a debt leveraged smash and grab acquisition of the most valuable family of patents owned by the UK. I was a reluctant seller of my shares in ARM.
If our PM cannot understand the difference between selling the family silver and new investment then I feel we are lost.
How massive is the UK's current account deficit? Which UK assets would you like to see sold to foreigners to finance it?
This Marmite saga does point to a deeper risk for EU traders into the UK. If we get into tariffs and pricing disputes via a 'hard' Brexit we will see consumers just shift their preferences in many cases. It won't be a profit margin squeeze but a sales collapse for some.
In a fully globalised and debt laden world all countries are in a devaluation arms race. The UK has just managed by the back door to achieve a significant movement in its currency - back towards fair value. We're very lucky. AEP has a decent article on a similar theme in today's Telegraph.
I'm not sure consumers will change their preference to a large degree. The media will persecute one or two brands, whilst others who are more canny or lucky will emerge unscathed.
As an aside, what d you see as the 'fair value' for the pound?
The IMF see fair value to the USD as around $1.10:
I would suggest we can hit $1 before the pound starts to recover as markets often overshoot.
The biggest losers from the sterling drop are the core Tory voters and this will be the biggest challenge for TM. Pensions will become less valuable as will housing assets. The winners will be skilled workers especially with technical skills.
If the sterling decline is seen as a permanent rebalancing, rather than vix, surely there will at some point be a foreign owner housing sell off.
London property prices, anyone?
Entirely first world problem, but given what I spend in hotels/train tickets each month I've been wistfully looking for a bijou London crash pad for the past couple of years....
The Unilever/Tesco spat is easy to resolve . Unilever simply say , if you want to pay in Euros or another sound currency there is no price increase at all , if you want to pay in pounds sterling a currency which even Brexiteers think is worthless the price increase is 20%
How do you think Tesco would respond?
Where they exist they will try and source similar products from elsewhere . They may find that sourcing them from say US manufacturers is even more expensive because of the collapsed pound .
@SkyData: Wld you support British military intervention in Aleppo? Support 46% Oppose 37%
...if it meant conflict with Russia? Oppose 51% Support 31%
So 31% of the British people want to pick a military fight with Russia over Syria - frightening.
A bit less posturing from the Foreign Secretary would be a good start.
The history of western involvement in Aleppo doesn't inspire a lot of confidence either - two Crusader sieges and a conquest of the city in league with the Mongols by a group of Frankish knights from Antioch.
I guess the question on Cameron (which we're many years away from being able to answer) is does his Brexit "failure' (sic) outweigh his other successes.....
LOL at the "middling Churchill" trollement" (EDIT: Ah, OK missed the 'post-war' bit)
what are Cameron's successes? Didn't break anything too badly during the first term when Nick was helping him?
I'd list Cameron's successes as:
- Creating and running a stable coalition government that went to full term (recall how this site was thick with 'Govt will fall by October 2010' predictions)
- Getting the economy moving and starting to bring the public finances under control
- SindyRef & AV
- Winning a second term.
Of course if BREXIT is the unmitigated disaster the remoaners wish for would have us believe, then all of these are overshadowed - but I think that is what has weighed heavily in the academics' estimation of him.....
Your conversion from europhile Cameroon to Mayite eurosceptic shill is one of the hardest things to swallow on here. You work for CCHQ and just spin the government line of the day. No other explanation stands up to any scrutiny. Thank God for Tories like TSE and - yes - ScottP. They have their own mind.
You're more entertaining (which isn't saying much) when you are proposing banning things....
Ha! I think the word you are looking for is ... 'rumbled'...
The word you're looking for is 'delusional'.
How many CCHQ researchers do you think there are who went to University 40 years ago?
May contemporary ?
Yes, knew both her & Philip - hence my more favourable view than many expressed on here....
Comparing them with Nate Silver's state-by-state estimates and averaging the three, the Clinton leads are around 0.5% bigger in the new polls.
Clearly Trump can't win unless there is either: (1) a systematic error in the polls or (2) a swing of 3-4% back to him.
1) would be a massive crisis in polling if true 2) Its down to Clinton to screw up. Cant see Trump having the skill or personaility to do anything to improve his standing
1) May 2015, June 2016. And from what I can make out the US pollsters are not nearly as good as the British ones who still systematically underestimated Tory/Leave voters
The opposite is true for US pollers. And 538 has a very good record for presidential elections.
May 2015: Cameron had much better leader ratings than Ed. Opposite is true for Trump/Clinton
June 2016: Referendum is way too different to a electoral college
Trump needs one of these Wikileaks email surprises to contain anything even slightly surprising about Hillary. So far they've all been overhyped (not least by Trump's own pb PR team) damp squibs.
Wikileaks is providing Trump with ammunition but it appears to be largely discounted by many voters. They know Clinton is deeply flawed but simply see Trump as far worse.
I must say this morning I found the Trump tape about dating a young girl ten year hence very creepy and IMO will play very badly on top of pussygate.
yeah, unless men like him talk about having sex with 10 year old girls in locker rooms
@SkyData: Wld you support British military intervention in Aleppo? Support 46% Oppose 37%
...if it meant conflict with Russia? Oppose 51% Support 31%
The West needs to accept Assad is here to stay unless and until the Syrian people in free elections decide otherwise. The sooner Assad wins against the rebels, the sooner the bombing will stop.
We need to be focusing on defeating ISIS (a much bigger threat to us), arming the Kurds (sod Turkey) and withdrawing support from the rebels, many of whom are Jihadists (sod Saudi).
Obama can't do this because he will be depicted as weak in the election campaign. Once elected, Hillary could, but she is more likely to continue to support the Saudis and drag this thing out. The most useful thing the British Government could do is to persuade her to change policy.
It's a bit much for the people of Burton-on-Trent to have to put up with both the smell of Marmite being made in their town and to see the price rising as well as if it were produced overseas.
Comments
Almost.
Very little inside klnowledge nowadays, but I could try a few contacts.
But I disagree with: "Certainly engineering has always had a dispersed and international component chain.". Until the First World War, and possibly the second, that was not really the case. A ship made on Tyneside would be made using local iron, made from local iron ore and smelted using local coal. The guns would have come from a few miles upriver at Armstrong's.
Local ships from local resources for a global empire.
(Cue League of Gentleman joke)
He was a disaster and not just us but our kids will be paying for the cleanup.
Clearly Trump can't win unless there is either:
(1) a systematic error in the polls or
(2) a swing of 3-4% back to him.
New Labour = SWP on steroids.
Also a company that was publicly strongly in favour of REMAIN - so they should have anticipated this sort of reaction. The PR handling is appalling....
2) Its down to Clinton to screw up. Cant see Trump having the skill or personaility to do anything to improve his standing
Don't we need that free trade agreement with Australia first?
Raising prices on items sourced abroad due to exchange rate changes would be seen as fair enough. Doing so for entirely UK-sourced products appears to be taking the piss.
Apparently you were more likely to “remember" it if you were an opponent of Bush than if you were a supporter!
Note; it didn’t happen. Bush was staying in the White House when he said and did little about Katrina. He wasn’t off on a jolly.
More problematically, there's a good chance that for the rest of the campaign, he's going to be fighting off abuse allegations, quite possibly backed up by hard evidence. Hillary might be far from the best person to throw stones there but she doesn't have to if women keep coming forward direct to the media.
I must say this morning I found the Trump tape about dating a young girl ten year hence very creepy and IMO will play very badly on top of pussygate.
Which is possibly far from reality.
"It's going to be hilarious/epic etc if [nasty right winger] wins."
It will be excellent if Hillary wins as it will stop the nasty anti-immigrant, anti-intellectual Red BNP juggernaut in its tracks. And the unpleasant Platoite wing of PB will STFU.
I lived near Burton as a child, and the smells over the town were always quite nice. Unlike the Nestle factory in nearby Hatton, where the smell of coffee was always rather too strong.
As an aside, my dad used to drive past the Nestle factory, roll down his window and shout 'Maxwell House!" at the workers...
The 538 guide to pollsters is very useful. There are some excellent firms operating stateside whose accuracy is to be admired. I expect them to perform well again this cycle.
In such circumstances I suggest any of us managing their pricing would simply cover our financial position by applying the increase in costs broadly and crudely across our product range - leaving the tricky and detailed price remodelling until later once the fallout becomes much clearer.
As I say, logical and sensible - but unlucky that the marmite issue has sunk their PR so quickly. Credit to Tesco for going straight for the weak spot!
A friend lived in the countryside a couple of miles away, and if the wind was in the right direction you could smell coffee all day.
So, we're xenophobic, but not uniquely xenophobic.
I suspect what's happened:
Post Brexit vote -
Unilever HQ to Unilever UK 'Eh....what about pricing?' 'We're carefully monitoring it'
Two weeks ago: Unilever HQ 'WHAT ABOUT PRICING???' Unilever UK 'We're considering a series of modest increases'
Last week: Unilever HQ 'WHEN?????' UK: 'Soon'
This week Unilever HQ 'Put the F*cking price up! UK (sotto voce) 'you'll be sorry....'
But there was some analysis on 538 which showed it was not actually Trump drawing this crowd -- it was Bernie Sanders. So if the polls are under-sampling Bernie's erstwhile supporters, are they more likely to vote for Hillary (same party, Establishment) or Trump (wrong party and while he is a political outsider, he is famously a billionaire property developer)?
"They know Clinton is deeply flawed but simply see Trump as far worse."
That's always been the issue, hasn't it? In your day ... sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me. Nowadays, words, or even mis-speaks are far more important than deeds.
A wall to stop Mexican immigrants? How long is the US - Mexican border? And the Mexican government will pay for it? Worth a chortle at best, but clearly a joke. What will he do were he to be elected? Who really knows?
HRC ... more of the same. An unpalatable choice but I suspect they'll decide on words so Trump is doomed.
In a fully globalised and debt laden world all countries are in a devaluation arms race. The UK has just managed by the back door to achieve a significant movement in its currency - back towards fair value. We're very lucky. AEP has a decent article on a similar theme in today's Telegraph.
As an aside, what d you see as the 'fair value' for the pound?
How many CCHQ researchers do you think there are who went to University 40 years ago?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/10/currency-guru-says-pound-slide-liberates-uk-from-malign-grip-of/
So we are today about right.
Trump = President Clinton.
Sufficient disaffected GOP voters would propel Trump to the nomination where he would face Clinton whose machine would eventually overwhelm Bernie.
Worsening demographics and faced with a poor choice the punters would opt for the least worst option and propel Hillary to the White House.
This race has not been difficult to call.
@SkyData: Wld you support British military intervention in Aleppo?
Support 46%
Oppose 37%
...if it meant conflict with Russia?
Oppose 51%
Support 31%
It's worth remembering that Sterling's cheapness already discourages migration. If you're a Polish builder who sends back £200/week to your family in Gdansk, the amount receieved has fallen by 15%. Working in Germany - where rents are lower, the family is closer and the wages are now comparable - suddenly looks a bit more attractive. If we have a little bit of inflation too, that will further squeeze how much said Pole can send back.
I knew May personally at University, so possibly have a better measure of her than others.
I'm a Remainer who accepts we're leaving the EU.....or are those too many facts to process?
I would suggest we can hit $1 before the pound starts to recover as markets often overshoot.
The biggest losers from the sterling drop are the core Tory voters and this will be the biggest challenge for TM. Pensions will become less valuable as will housing assets. The winners will be skilled workers especially with technical skills.
Be interesting to see how that breaks by party.....
In the end a 2-3% rise will be agreed, Tesco will pass on 1-2% and some people will try other brands and switch in the longer term which hurts Unilever. The latter is why Tesco have taken the products off their website and away from stores.
1. With Assad against ISIL?
2. With Rebels against Assad?
3. With Rebels against ISIL?
4. With ISIL against Assad?
5. A more exotic combination involving Russia, Turkey, Kurds, USA, Momentum or Mickey Mouse?
What outcome is worth the bones of a British Grenadier in Syria?
If our PM cannot understand the difference between selling the family silver and new investment then I feel we are lost.
London property prices, anyone?
Entirely first world problem, but given what I spend in hotels/train tickets each month I've been wistfully looking for a bijou London crash pad for the past couple of years....
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/300740-footage-surfaces-of-trump-making-questionable-remark-about-10
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07yklv8/panorama-diabetes-the-hidden-killer
A bit less posturing from the Foreign Secretary would be a good start.
The history of western involvement in Aleppo doesn't inspire a lot of confidence either - two Crusader sieges and a conquest of the city in league with the Mongols by a group of Frankish knights from Antioch.
[/pedant]
May 2015: Cameron had much better leader ratings than Ed. Opposite is true for Trump/Clinton
June 2016: Referendum is way too different to a electoral college yeah, unless men like him talk about having sex with 10 year old girls in locker rooms
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/300715-women-independents-flee-trump-propelling-clinton-in-polls
We need to be focusing on defeating ISIS (a much bigger threat to us), arming the Kurds (sod Turkey) and withdrawing support from the rebels, many of whom are Jihadists (sod Saudi).
Obama can't do this because he will be depicted as weak in the election campaign. Once elected, Hillary could, but she is more likely to continue to support the Saudis and drag this thing out. The most useful thing the British Government could do is to persuade her to change policy.