Just a point to ponder - Trump's new supporters are now the blue collar working class and Clinton's new supporters are the white-collar workers. This realignment in postal votes may be symptomatic of the changes in popular base.
Brought to you from the same bollocks as Ant fans are Communists and Dec fans are Fascists.
I think you may have misunderstood the statement that "Ant is always on the left and Dec is always on the right". It refers to the fact that that's how they always stand in photographs.
The treaties of Rome, Maastricht, Amsterdam and Lisbon by setting in course the process of withdrawing from them.
Article 50 is a provision of the Lisbon Treaty, which supersedes and incorporates all the previous treaties. None of them would be changed. Quite the opposite - we would, as Sean Fear says, simply be exercising a mechanism in the treaty. No sentient being could possibly honestly believe that involving a provision on a treaty is a major change to it.
It amends the previous treaties rather than supersedes them. Surely you can't have missed the failure to get the Constitution passed which led to the change of approach?
If you're going to be that pedantic you can go even further and say that our ceasing to be a signatory constitutes a major change to the treaty that would remain in effect between the EU27 and which will continue to be of the utmost importance to our foreign and domestic policy.
Christ alive, a thread header about polling in the US Presidential Election and already we're into the same tedious argument about triggering Article 50 that can be found under every thread for the last 3 months.
This time, I've only seen two yard signs for the Presidential campaign in my area, both for Clinton. Seen a couple of Trump signs further upstate a month or so ago. Virtually no bumper stickers to be seen either, a few for Clinton, slightly fewer for Trump - there are still more Sanders stickers from the primaries to be seen!
Same story in California where I am at the moment. The few posters you see are more likely to be for Bernie. Not much other evidence of an election taking place.
I think yard signs are pretty much obselete, except possibly by-elections. I saw none in Leicester or Leics in the referendum and only one on the Isle of Wight. Very few here in the GE either.
People post on tinternet instead. I don't take the paucity of yard signs as an indicator of turnout.
There is a super programme on BBC4 at the moment about Breguet's watch for Marie Antoinette. A watch which was to have "all the complications" - and took 44 yrs to make. Nicholas Parsons is presenting it, sounding wonderful still but looking painfully frail...
Was on iplayer last week. Wait to the end when you see Nicholas holding the watch (although at this second that may still be a spoiler).
What a delightful programme! Watch it on player guys. An hour you won't regret spending.
@faisalislam: 6. It was the whole framing of the announcements at CPC that have yielded this @houseofcommons moment, and it's not going away now
@faisalislam: 7. LAbour, Tory sceptics, Clegg, Chancellor, business all using same language of "no one voted Brexit for people to lose jobs"
@faisalislam: 8. CPC genuinely had impact on biz confidence - reps in Brum staggered at gloating nature of hard Brexit fans, activated contingency plans
If you're going to be that pedantic you can go even further and say that our ceasing to be a signatory constitutes a major change to the treaty that would remain in effect between the EU27 and which will continue to be of the utmost importance to our foreign and domestic policy.
You could, but invoking Article 50 doesn't mean we cease to be signatories to those treaties. We remain signatories.
I used to rate Dominc Grieve, but, really, this is the silliest of arguments.
One problem with judging this election - one way or the other - is I have a problem with some of the methodology which does not seem right. For example, I looked today, the Ipsos National +7 for Clinton nd the Flordia +3% HRC poll.
On the Ipsos national poll, it had a weighting of 47% Democrats, 31% Republican and 12% Independent, with Strong Democrats nearly x2 Strong Republicans (17% v 10%). Does that sound right on a national basis? Maybe it is but it looks odd and, given that Trump is leading amongst Independent Likely Voters in that poll (32%-24%), the weighting is critical.
On the Florida Opinion Survey poll, of the 533 people they polled, apparently 91% had watched the debate vs. c. 25% of the adult population who watched it live: presumably, more watched it online but not that many.
More people identify as Democrat than Republican, but many of those Democrats vote Republican. It's partly a legacy vote in the South, partly a social acceptability bias towards the left.
By comparison, almost all UK polls since 1945 show more people identify as Labour than Conservative, even when the Conservatives have big leads.
Just a point to ponder - Trump's new supporters are now the blue collar working class and Clinton's new supporters are the white-collar workers. This realignment in postal votes may be symptomatic of the changes in popular base.
I've tried to find what causes the change in the N.Carolina registration vs votes cast.
The only thing that is different is the age cohort. Those under the age of 30 get almost as many postal ballots as those aged 65, yet their rate of voting is only 1/3rd of those aged 65 and over:
@faisalislam: 6. It was the whole framing of the announcements at CPC that have yielded this @houseofcommons moment, and it's not going away now @faisalislam: 7. LAbour, Tory sceptics, Clegg, Chancellor, business all using same language of "no one voted Brexit for people to lose jobs" @faisalislam: 8. CPC genuinely had impact on biz confidence - reps in Brum staggered at gloating nature of hard Brexit fans, activated contingency plans
If you're going to be that pedantic you can go even further and say that our ceasing to be a signatory constitutes a major change to the treaty that would remain in effect between the EU27 and which will continue to be of the utmost importance to our foreign and domestic policy.
You could, but invoking Article 50 doesn't mean we cease to be signatories to those treaties. We remain signatories.
I used to rate Dominc Grieve, but, really, this is the silliest of arguments.
It signals that we will cease to be signatories at a defined point in the future. A clear material change.
This time, I've only seen two yard signs for the Presidential campaign in my area, both for Clinton. Seen a couple of Trump signs further upstate a month or so ago. Virtually no bumper stickers to be seen either, a few for Clinton, slightly fewer for Trump - there are still more Sanders stickers from the primaries to be seen!
Same story in California where I am at the moment. The few posters you see are more likely to be for Bernie. Not much other evidence of an election taking place.
I think yard signs are pretty much obselete, except possibly by-elections. I saw none in Leicester or Leics in the referendum and only one on the Isle of Wight. Very few here in the GE either.
People post on tinternet instead. I don't take the paucity of yard signs as an indicator of turnout.
You'll be pleased to hear that yard signs remain a signifying indicator here in Dorset.
It signals that we will cease to be signatories at a defined point in the future. A clear material change.
A material change in our status under the treaty (and using a provision already agreed) , sure. He's a lawyer. If that's what he meant to say, he should have said it. But he said a material change to the treaty - which it ain't, by any stretch of any imagination.
That's actually extremely good news - a very handy negotiating card. In the absence of any agreement with out EU friends, the payments automatically stop two years to the day after Mrs May pulls the Article 50 trigger.
Respect. Points out the real negotiating position.
Anyhoo, stop w*****g on about whatever is tonight's idee fixe (Commonwealth? Why Remainers are to blame for keeping UK in the EEA[1] and for keeping UK out of the EEA[2]? Whateva) I have had a *lousy* day...
Von Clausewitz speaks of "friction": how in war everything becomes more difficult. Well he never had to change currency, that's for godsdamn sure. This is how it went:
* Taxi to airport for local Travelex * Discover Travelex offer different rates instore than online. Decide to buy online * Taxi from airport to office * Try to buy currency online. Transaction collapses midstream * A bit of poo comes out * Phone up card company. Transaction was rejected because it was anomalous (I don't normally move that much cash around online). Answer many, many questions. * Go to bank: confirm money was not withdrawn * Try again. This time it goes thru with buyback guarantee. * Arrange to pick up many many USD tomorrow * Patiently print out confirmation, transaction details, proof of ID, get passport. * Check market. Some MPs have rented a pair and have told May to cut the back to the Fifties s**t. Market does not collapse laughing but instead chooses to believe MPs with nuts exist. Well, it's a view. Pound rises after nine solid days of falls. I want my Mum.
You may look forward to me insisting repeatedly that this wasn't meant to make a profit, but was insurance. Yeah that's it, insurance: that'll work...
The buyback guarantee lasts for 45 days. I now have 45 days to find out what the largest Travelex is so I don't turn up only to be told that "actually we don't carry that much cash"
Grumble grumble grumble Dick Dastardly...
[1] Casino_Royale's position [2] Richard_Tyndall's position
The LA Times poll is getting some flak after the article by Nate Cohn but worth taking a look at their explanation as to why they have been out of kilter:
I first had my suspicions about the poll due to the way the black and male sub groups seemed to move in sync. Pulpstar told me not to worry about sub samples but the correlation is striking.
Cohn's argument is highly persuasive to me. Look how simultaneously the Black and Male move in sync. One Black Trump voting dude is massively over-weighted. You can even see the echo in the 18-34 group.
He is the shy Trumper that other polls are not reaching.
I get that and I read the Cohn article, and see where he is coming from. My question would be that, if they are using the same methodology as they did back in 2012, then is this problem something entirely new or just that people did not pick it up in 2012? And, if the latter, did they just get lucky with their prediction for Obama's vote?
I am hoping Cohn would do the same for 2012 to see if there where any outlandish weightings from the last time round. If not I will hopefully find the time to do so.
As you increase the number of small group you increase the chance of freak outliers. They may have got lucky and not had any explosive weightings affecting their results last time round.
The poll is actually a focus group that they keep asking the same question to. The flaw in the methodology is glaringly obvious - being that, given that they cannot smooth out the choosing of poorly representative samples as normal polls do by not asking the same people, who they start with is crucial. Last time they appear to gave got lucky with a representative sample, and they were in step with other polling. This time they are consistently out of step, now either they are all right and nobody else is or they are all wrong. That they are on their own lends weight to the belief that they are wrong.
On topic, I suspect major renegotiations with large suppliers on price with big supermarkets happen all the time.
This one is news because of Brexit and the currency drop. The worst thing that happens is that the supermarket takes a profit haircut, Unilever does or we pay a bit more for the product.
Rationing isn't going to happen, expect naturally and very modestly through the price mechanism.
I've found Tesco online to be terrible for months. "Avaliability" is always poor.
Salisbury's tends to be very good. Asda and Morrisons somewhere in the middle.
Tesco having been riding for a fall for a long time - their savage behaviour towards suppliers has led to people refusing to deal with them.
If you're going to be that pedantic you can go even further and say that our ceasing to be a signatory constitutes a major change to the treaty that would remain in effect between the EU27 and which will continue to be of the utmost importance to our foreign and domestic policy.
You could, but invoking Article 50 doesn't mean we cease to be signatories to those treaties. We remain signatories.
I used to rate Dominc Grieve, but, really, this is the silliest of arguments.
It signals that we will cease to be signatories at a defined point in the future. A clear material change.
It's a change in the UK's status, not a change to the treaty. The treaty isn't being changed. Opening the cardoor and getting out of the car is not a change to the car.
It signals that we will cease to be signatories at a defined point in the future. A clear material change.
A material change in our status under the treaty (and using a provision already agreed) , sure. He's a lawyer. If that's what he meant to say, he should have said it. But he said a material change to the treaty - which it ain't, by any stretch of any imagination.
By way of comparison, if I enter a contract that can be terminated by 12 months' notice, I'm not altering the contract by exercising the notice provision.
If you're going to be that pedantic you can go even further and say that our ceasing to be a signatory constitutes a major change to the treaty that would remain in effect between the EU27 and which will continue to be of the utmost importance to our foreign and domestic policy.
You could, but invoking Article 50 doesn't mean we cease to be signatories to those treaties. We remain signatories.
I used to rate Dominc Grieve, but, really, this is the silliest of arguments.
It signals that we will cease to be signatories at a defined point in the future. A clear material change.
It's a change in the UK's status, not a change to the treaty. The treaty isn't being changed. Opening the cardoor and getting out of the car is not a change to the car.
We are not a passenger but one of the wheels. Removing a wheel is a change to the car, even if the lug nuts make provision for this to happen.
@faisalislam: 6. It was the whole framing of the announcements at CPC that have yielded this @houseofcommons moment, and it's not going away now @faisalislam: 7. LAbour, Tory sceptics, Clegg, Chancellor, business all using same language of "no one voted Brexit for people to lose jobs" @faisalislam: 8. CPC genuinely had impact on biz confidence - reps in Brum staggered at gloating nature of hard Brexit fans, activated contingency plans
@faisalislam: 6. It was the whole framing of the announcements at CPC that have yielded this @houseofcommons moment, and it's not going away now @faisalislam: 7. LAbour, Tory sceptics, Clegg, Chancellor, business all using same language of "no one voted Brexit for people to lose jobs" @faisalislam: 8. CPC genuinely had impact on biz confidence - reps in Brum staggered at gloating nature of hard Brexit fans, activated contingency plans
Pasty Scot = Faisal.
Is Faisal scottish? If he is then indeed he is ScottP.
They paste remoaning crap hour after hour. Have they been seen in the same room?
Obesity is a problem of prosperity, just as malnutrition is one of poverty. I read that, for a time, the world's healthiest society was Dominica, in the late 20th century, where a combination of hard agricultural labour, combined with huge improvements in diet and healthcare, produced a very hardy and long-lived population.
It's not just prosperity, though: there is after all a very strong negative correlation in Western societies between obesity and household income. Something else is going on.
my guess would be that the income correlation is a surrogate for education, with understanding of the negative health consequences helping people control their eating. But obesity is on the rise generally in western societies. One interesting theory is that the pace, stresses and distractions of modern life are disrupting sleep patterns; if you sleep less you tend to eat more (the hormone that stimulates appetite is suppressed by sleep).
It signals that we will cease to be signatories at a defined point in the future. A clear material change.
A material change in our status under the treaty (and using a provision already agreed) , sure. He's a lawyer. If that's what he meant to say, he should have said it. But he said a material change to the treaty - which it ain't, by any stretch of any imagination.
By way of comparison, if I enter a contract that can be terminated by 12 months' notice, I'm not altering the contract by exercising the notice provision.
Grieve is a specialist in occupational safety and health law. Not English contract law. Which explains a lot.
Ending the UK's involvement in the EU also threatens Grieve's knowledge base and livelihood.
It signals that we will cease to be signatories at a defined point in the future. A clear material change.
A material change in our status under the treaty (and using a provision already agreed) , sure. He's a lawyer. If that's what he meant to say, he should have said it. But he said a material change to the treaty - which it ain't, by any stretch of any imagination.
Indeed. It is one of those strange facts that the treaty that so many of us campaigned against and which reinforced our view that the EU was not for us is also the very document that allows us for the first time to legally leave the EU. An option that was not available to us by any route other than breaking our treaty commitments prior to Lisbon coming into force.
Newsnight had Lord Haskins on. ex Labour peer, Lib Dem donor, Remain campaigner. He then forecast that grocery bills will be 5% higher in 12 months time. No Leave person was interviewed to provide a balance nor did Emily challenge his claims. Guardian tv night as usual.
Anyhoo, stop w*****g on about whatever is tonight's idee fixe (Commonwealth? Why Remainers are to blame for keeping UK in the EEA[1] and for keeping UK out of the EEA[2]? Whateva) I have had a *lousy* day...
Von Clausewitz speaks of "friction": how in war everything becomes more difficult. Well he never had to change currency, that's for godsdamn sure. This is how it went:
* Taxi to airport for local Travelex * Discover Travelex offer different rates instore than online. Decide to buy online * Taxi from airport to office * Try to buy currency online. Transaction collapses midstream * A bit of poo comes out * Phone up card company. Transaction was rejected because it was anomalous (I don't normally move that much cash around online). Answer many, many questions. * Go to bank: confirm money was not withdrawn * Try again. This time it goes thru with buyback guarantee. * Arrange to pick up many many USD tomorrow * Patiently print out confirmation, transaction details, proof of ID, get passport. * Check market. Some MPs have rented a pair and have told May to cut the back to the Fifties s**t. Market does not collapse laughing but instead chooses to believe MPs with nuts exist. Well, it's a view. Pound rises after nine solid days of falls. I want my Mum.
You may look forward to me insisting repeatedly that this wasn't meant to make a profit, but was insurance. Yeah that's it, insurance: that'll work...
The buyback guarantee lasts for 45 days. I now have 45 days to find out what the largest Travelex is so I don't turn up only to be told that "actually we don't carry that much cash"
Grumble grumble grumble Dick Dastardly...
[1] Casino_Royale's position [2] Richard_Tyndall's position
Hedging your position with a spread bet would appear to have been an easier option?
Am I missing something? Wouldn't someone like unilever have currency swaps to ameliorate currency fluctuations??
IT'S NOT EASY Y'KNOW!
(see previous thread... )
I suspect unilever have better tools than bureau de change....
How did your efforts go, btw?
I think it worked. Or I am now broke. It's difficult to tell...
It's easier in the movies: you press a button, lean back and cackle. In practice I've had to talk to bureaux staff, bank staff, fraud prevention staff, taxi drivers. I think the transaction finally went thru (I pick up the USD tomorrow) but I am concerned that Travelex will renege on their buyback guarantee or (more plausibly) claim they don't carry that much cash. For the next 45 days I will not be of a sunny disposition: I'll have to find out which Travelex is the biggest and can cover it. I can cover a loss of £500 without too much trouble but if GBP heads back over $1.30 it starts becoming nontrivial. Still, the only safe move is not to play...
Just a point to ponder - Trump's new supporters are now the blue collar working class and Clinton's new supporters are the white-collar workers. This realignment in postal votes may be symptomatic of the changes in popular base.
It also means the efforts the Republicans running swing states have been putting in to make it harder for poor and uneducated people to vote may end up hurting them.
It's obvious that the number of african americans voting Trump in the LAT tracking poll was very high and unstable, so I always look at the whites for changes.
Talking about polling concerns, it's not only the extremely low turnout for those under 65 in N.Carolina, there are more:
Am I missing something? Wouldn't someone like unilever have currency swaps to ameliorate currency fluctuations??
IT'S NOT EASY Y'KNOW!
(see previous thread... )
I suspect unilever have better tools than bureau de change....
How did your efforts go, btw?
I think it worked. Or I am now broke. It's difficult to tell...
It's easier in the movies: you press a button, lean back and cackle. In practice I've had to talk to bureaux staff, bank staff, fraud prevention staff, taxi drivers. I think the transaction finally went thru (I pick up the USD tomorrow) but I am concerned that Travelex will renege on their buyback guarantee or (more plausibly) claim they don't carry that much cash. For the next 45 days I will not be of a sunny disposition: I'll have to find out which Travelex is the biggest and can cover it. I can cover a loss of £500 without too much trouble but if GBP heads back over $1.30 it starts becoming nontrivial. Still, the only safe move is not to play...
Wow. That's quite a lot of effort.Could you not just have bought Other currencies on a forex trading platform?
Anyhoo, stop w*****g on about whatever is tonight's idee fixe (Commonwealth? Why Remainers are to blame for keeping UK in the EEA[1] and for keeping UK out of the EEA[2]? Whateva) I have had a *lousy* day...
.....
SNIPPED with apologies
.....
Grumble grumble grumble Dick Dastardly...
[1] Casino_Royale's position [2] Richard_Tyndall's position
I am not sure I have ever blamed Remainers for keeping us out of the EEA. That one lies almost entirely with whoever is making decisions now and it seems to me they are most influenced by the malign views of some of the hardcore Brexit lot and the UKIP tendency who seems to consider anything short of a total ban on all movement in and out of the UK to be a betrayal.
I have always been absolutely clear about where I think we should end up but also equally clear about how that view does not seem to be popular amongst most if the supposed intelligentsia.
Newsnight had Lord Haskins on. ex Labour peer, Lib Dem donor, Remain campaigner. He then forecast that grocery bills will be 5% higher in 12 months time. No Leave person was interviewed to provide a balance nor did Emily challenge his claims. Guardian tv night as usual.
He did mention his allegiences, but was really being interviewed in his capacity as former Chair of Northern Foods, having built up a company relating to the question of supplying supermarkets.
Is anyone really disputing that prices are going up as a result of the slide in Sterling? Indeed Brexiteers yesterday were touting a bit of inflation as a good thing, along with higher interest rates and fewer imports
I am all for Hard Brexit, and just wish the government would stop dithering and get on with it.
Newsnight had Lord Haskins on. ex Labour peer, Lib Dem donor, Remain campaigner. He then forecast that grocery bills will be 5% higher in 12 months time. No Leave person was interviewed to provide a balance nor did Emily challenge his claims. Guardian tv night as usual.
He did mention his allegiences, but was really being interviewed in his capacity as former Chair of Northern Foods, having built up a company relating to the question of supplying supermarkets. Is anyone really disputing that prices are going up as a result of the slide in Sterling? Indeed Brexiteers yesterday were touting a bit of inflation as a good thing, along with higher interest rates and fewer imports. I am all for Hard Brexit, and just wish the government would stop dithering and get on with it.
5% is off the scale. Haskins stopped being involved 10+ years ago. PS welcome your view on going quicker for Brexit. Gnight.
On topic, I suspect major renegotiations with large suppliers on price with big supermarkets happen all the time.
This one is news because of Brexit and the currency drop. The worst thing that happens is that the supermarket takes a profit haircut, Unilever does or we pay a bit more for the product.
Rationing isn't going to happen, expect naturally and very modestly through the price mechanism.
I've found Tesco online to be terrible for months. "Avaliability" is always poor.
Salisbury's tends to be very good. Asda and Morrisons somewhere in the middle.
Tesco having been riding for a fall for a long time - their savage behaviour towards suppliers has led to people refusing to deal with them.
Sainsbury online are often very short of stock. You order three or four of something and get one I'd two. Last time we ordered four cans of baked beans but they hadn't got any at all left. We order mo dsy or Tuesday to get the free delivery so maybe they have more stock later in the week. Baby stuff is the worst very hard to get more than one or two packs of nappies or milk.
Just a point to ponder - Trump's new supporters are now the blue collar working class and Clinton's new supporters are the white-collar workers. This realignment in postal votes may be symptomatic of the changes in popular base.
I've tried to find what causes the change in the N.Carolina registration vs votes cast.
The only thing that is different is the age cohort. Those under the age of 30 get almost as many postal ballots as those aged 65, yet their rate of voting is only 1/3rd of those aged 65 and over:
The boss of Tesco probably knows that. Does the Head of Unilever?
I suspect he does. Unilever owns Marmite!
Kraft Foods own Vegemite, but the slide in Sterling vs the Aus $ has been pretty steep, so up in cost by 18%, making good old British Marmite a bargain at just 10% up.
The boss of Tesco probably knows that. Does the Head of Unilever?
The boss of Tesco also used to be one of the most successful senior managers at Unilever and knows damn well they are pulling a fast one.
Yes, someone mentioned that to sky Beth! I wonder if Dave Lewis is going to use it as an opportunity to cut down the number of product lines that Tesco has? Unilever may have set themselves up for a major disruption.
Just a point to ponder - Trump's new supporters are now the blue collar working class and Clinton's new supporters are the white-collar workers. This realignment in postal votes may be symptomatic of the changes in popular base.
It also means the efforts the Republicans running swing states have been putting in to make it harder for poor and uneducated people to vote may end up hurting them.
The boss of Tesco probably knows that. Does the Head of Unilever?
I suspect he does. Unilever owns Marmite!
Kraft Foods own Vegemite, but the slide in Sterling vs the Aus $ has been pretty steep, so up in cost by 18%, making good old British Marmite a bargain at just 10% up.
We know Unilever owns Marmite. It seems the head of Unilever is unaware it is made entirely in Britain and so is not subject to exchange rate pressures.
Newsnight had Lord Haskins on. ex Labour peer, Lib Dem donor, Remain campaigner. He then forecast that grocery bills will be 5% higher in 12 months time. No Leave person was interviewed to provide a balance nor did Emily challenge his claims. Guardian tv night as usual.
There was no need to interview anyone else. Haven't you realised that at least 40% of our food is imported and the £ has collapsed by 20%? Possibly not if you are a Leaver. He was being charitable, I would expect food bills to go up by more than 5% in that time. Unilever will be only the first of many companies who push their currency transaction costs onto consumers.
The boss of Tesco probably knows that. Does the Head of Unilever?
I suspect he does. Unilever owns Marmite!
Kraft Foods own Vegemite, but the slide in Sterling vs the Aus $ has been pretty steep, so up in cost by 18%, making good old British Marmite a bargain at just 10% up.
But to feature a product made in UK from a waste product available in UK..... Is a daft way of justifying a price hike blamed on currency changes. Dave Lewis will have a very ood understanding of the profit margins and cost drivers throughout most of Unilever's products. Not the type of person Unilever should wish to have sitting opposite them. #Unileverlose
Anyhoo, stop w*****g on about whatever is tonight's idee fixe (Commonwealth? Why Remainers are to blame for keeping UK in the EEA[1] and for keeping UK out of the EEA[2]? Whateva) I have had a *lousy* day...
Von Clausewitz speaks of "friction": how in war everything becomes more difficult. Well he never had to change currency, that's for godsdamn sure. This is how it went:
* Taxi to airport for local Travelex * Discover Travelex offer different rates instore than online. Decide to buy online * Taxi from airport to office * Try to buy currency online. Transaction collapses midstream * A bit of poo comes out * Phone up card company. Transaction was rejected because it was anomalous (I don't normally move that much cash around online). Answer many, many questions. * Go to bank: confirm money was not withdrawn * Try again. This time it goes thru with buyback guarantee. * Arrange to pick up many many USD tomorrow * Patiently print out confirmation, transaction details, proof of ID, get passport. * Check market. Some MPs have rented a pair and have told May to cut the back to the Fifties s**t. Market does not collapse laughing but instead chooses to believe MPs with nuts exist. Well, it's a view. Pound rises after nine solid days of falls. I want my Mum.
You may look forward to me insisting repeatedly that this wasn't meant to make a profit, but was insurance. Yeah that's it, insurance: that'll work...
The buyback guarantee lasts for 45 days. I now have 45 days to find out what the largest Travelex is so I don't turn up only to be told that "actually we don't carry that much cash"
Grumble grumble grumble Dick Dastardly...
[1] Casino_Royale's position [2] Richard_Tyndall's position
Hedging your position with a spread bet would appear to have been an easier option?
You're probably right but there is a caveat. Although I agree with you I find that it's more productive to go for the brute-force simple solution that can be done quickly, on the grounds that the best is the enemy of the good.
I did have a financial spread betting account but I gave it up because it was too complicated and expensive - what I wanted was "I give you X thousand and if Y happens you give me Z thousand, savvy?", but what I got was a large complicated website with too-large minimum spreads, too many buttons to press and the minute you put in hundreds the numbers start sprinting up and down like a hoor's drawers. I made me a small profit and GTFO'd.
Unsarcastically, betting in a betting shop is easier: they're widely available, transactions require minimum paperwork, and they will pay up even if they have to send you to another shop.
Just a point to ponder - Trump's new supporters are now the blue collar working class and Clinton's new supporters are the white-collar workers. This realignment in postal votes may be symptomatic of the changes in popular base.
I've tried to find what causes the change in the N.Carolina registration vs votes cast.
The only thing that is different is the age cohort. Those under the age of 30 get almost as many postal ballots as those aged 65, yet their rate of voting is only 1/3rd of those aged 65 and over:
What are the current polls showing for the older age groups?
Not much, usually it's a Trump lead of 5 points.
Trump usually leads nationally more with those aged 40-65, and loses those under 40 by 30%. Hillary gets leads that are very very large with those under 40.
Compared with 2012 the polls usually agree that Trump is doing slightly worse with the old, slightly better with middle aged, and much worse with the young.
Newsnight had Lord Haskins on. ex Labour peer, Lib Dem donor, Remain campaigner. He then forecast that grocery bills will be 5% higher in 12 months time. No Leave person was interviewed to provide a balance nor did Emily challenge his claims. Guardian tv night as usual.
There was no need to interview anyone else. Haven't you realised that at least 40% of our food is imported and the £ has collapsed by 20%? Possibly not if you are a Leaver. He was being charitable, I would expect food bills to go up by more than 5% in that time. Unilever will be only the first of many companies who push their currency transaction costs onto consumers.
£ is not down 20% from its early 2016 rates for all currencies. Much basic food is just one component of a manufactured product etc etc. Probably equivalent to 1% or 2% on the grocery basket and when we exit the EU we can import cheaper food and drink from ROW than the CAP controlled pricing systems we have with the EU.
The article included maps of these two results. And apparently the Trump campaign is now using the male Trump landslide in its fundraising literature, and claiming that Trump is making uge gains.
Anyhoo, stop w*****g on about whatever is tonight's idee fixe (Commonwealth? Why Remainers are to blame for keeping UK in the EEA[1] and for keeping UK out of the EEA[2]? Whateva) I have had a *lousy* day...
.....
SNIPPED with apologies
.....
Grumble grumble grumble Dick Dastardly...
[1] Casino_Royale's position [2] Richard_Tyndall's position
I am not sure I have ever blamed Remainers for keeping us out of the EEA. That one lies almost entirely with whoever is making decisions now and it seems to me they are most influenced by the malign views of some of the hardcore Brexit lot and the UKIP tendency who seems to consider anything short of a total ban on all movement in and out of the UK to be a betrayal.
I have always been absolutely clear about where I think we should end up but also equally clear about how that view does not seem to be popular amongst most if the supposed intelligentsia.
The boss of Tesco probably knows that. Does the Head of Unilever?
I suspect he does. Unilever owns Marmite!
Kraft Foods own Vegemite, but the slide in Sterling vs the Aus $ has been pretty steep, so up in cost by 18%, making good old British Marmite a bargain at just 10% up.
We know Unilever owns Marmite. It seems the head of Unilever is unaware it is made entirely in Britain and so is not subject to exchange rate pressures.
This point illustrates the lack of research that the ITV, then BBC and then Sky (Faisal) etc did on the story this evening.... Each one copied the other and were too lazy to research a few facts. I refer all to (sir) Andrew Neil's retweet about lazy Faisal.
Am I missing something? Wouldn't someone like unilever have currency swaps to ameliorate currency fluctuations??
IT'S NOT EASY Y'KNOW!
(see previous thread... )
I suspect unilever have better tools than bureau de change....
How did your efforts go, btw?
I think it worked. Or I am now broke. It's difficult to tell...
It's easier in the movies: you press a button, lean back and cackle. In practice I've had to talk to bureaux staff, bank staff, fraud prevention staff, taxi drivers. I think the transaction finally went thru (I pick up the USD tomorrow) but I am concerned that Travelex will renege on their buyback guarantee or (more plausibly) claim they don't carry that much cash. For the next 45 days I will not be of a sunny disposition: I'll have to find out which Travelex is the biggest and can cover it. I can cover a loss of £500 without too much trouble but if GBP heads back over $1.30 it starts becoming nontrivial. Still, the only safe move is not to play...
Wow. That's quite a lot of effort.Could you not just have bought Other currencies on a forex trading platform?
You now have an unparalleled opportunity to recommend one to me...
The boss of Tesco probably knows that. Does the Head of Unilever?
I suspect he does. Unilever owns Marmite!
Kraft Foods own Vegemite, but the slide in Sterling vs the Aus $ has been pretty steep, so up in cost by 18%, making good old British Marmite a bargain at just 10% up.
We know Unilever owns Marmite. It seems the head of Unilever is unaware it is made entirely in Britain and so is not subject to exchange rate pressures.
The boss of Tesco probably knows that. Does the Head of Unilever?
I suspect he does. Unilever owns Marmite!
Kraft Foods own Vegemite, but the slide in Sterling vs the Aus $ has been pretty steep, so up in cost by 18%, making good old British Marmite a bargain at just 10% up.
We know Unilever owns Marmite. It seems the head of Unilever is unaware it is made entirely in Britain and so is not subject to exchange rate pressures.
Marmite is just one of many Unilever (a British company in large part) brands. If Tesco refuse to accept price rises for other Unilever brands (many of which would have increased in cost by more than 10%) then this falls into the position of being a pawn in the negotiations between two big companies, one of which is a major seller of products around the world and particularly emerging markets.
Do you really not expect price inflation as a result of the slide in Sterling?
Anyhoo, stop w*****g on about whatever is tonight's idee fixe (Commonwealth? Why Remainers are to blame for keeping UK in the EEA[1] and for keeping UK out of the EEA[2]? Whateva) I have had a *lousy* day...
The buyback guarantee lasts for 45 days. I now have 45 days to find out what the largest Travelex is so I don't turn up only to be told that "actually we don't carry that much cash"
Grumble grumble grumble Dick Dastardly...
[1] Casino_Royale's position [2] Richard_Tyndall's position
Hedging your position with a spread bet would appear to have been an easier option?
You're probably right but there is a caveat. Although I agree with you I find that it's more productive to go for the brute-force simple solution that can be done quickly, on the grounds that the best is the enemy of the good.
I did have a financial spread betting account but I gave it up because it was too complicated and expensive - what I wanted was "I give you X thousand and if Y happens you give me Z thousand, savvy?", but what I got was a large complicated website with too-large minimum spreads, too many buttons to press and the minute you put in hundreds the numbers start sprinting up and down like a hoor's drawers. I made me a small profit and GTFO'd.
Unsarcastically, betting in a betting shop is easier: they're widely available, transactions require minimum paperwork, and they will pay up even if they have to send you to another shop.
OK but really it is quite simple. The GBP/USD is priced with a small spread so the buy and sell prices are fairly close together (the sell price is currently 1.29164). If you create and add it to a short watchlist it avoids having to search through lots of other trades when you want to take a position. Taking the position is as easy as it is on Betfair; just enter the stake and a couple of clicks.
The pricing is per 0.0001 so a stake of 1 is equivalent to buying about 12000 dollars. I am on City Index with a minimum stake size of 0.1 so you can effectively trade as little as 1200 dollars (equivalent). In reality the advantage is that you don't need to deposit anything like that amount - the margin requirements just ensure there is enough in the account to cover likely short-run fluctuations. The downside of not actually having to deposit the cash is that there's a small daily financing charge to maintain the position.
So many people are predicting further £ falls that my instinct is that we may be close to a floor, with further downside limited, at least until we get into the New Year and A50 starts to loom. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised to see some trading recovery meanwhile.
Am I missing something? Wouldn't someone like unilever have currency swaps to ameliorate currency fluctuations??
IT'S NOT EASY Y'KNOW!
(see previous thread... )
I suspect unilever have better tools than bureau de change....
How did your efforts go, btw?
I think it worked. Or I am now broke. It's difficult to tell...
It's easier in the movies: you press a button, lean back and cackle. In practice I've had to talk to bureaux staff, bank staff, fraud prevention staff, taxi drivers. I think the transaction finally went thru (I pick up the USD tomorrow) but I am concerned that Travelex will renege on their buyback guarantee or (more plausibly) claim they don't carry that much cash. For the next 45 days I will not be of a sunny disposition: I'll have to find out which Travelex is the biggest and can cover it. I can cover a loss of £500 without too much trouble but if GBP heads back over $1.30 it starts becoming nontrivial. Still, the only safe move is not to play...
Wow. That's quite a lot of effort.Could you not just have bought Other currencies on a forex trading platform?
I thought the whole point of the exercise was to get a free option based on Travelex's buyback provision.
The boss of Tesco probably knows that. Does the Head of Unilever?
I suspect he does. Unilever owns Marmite!
Kraft Foods own Vegemite, but the slide in Sterling vs the Aus $ has been pretty steep, so up in cost by 18%, making good old British Marmite a bargain at just 10% up.
We know Unilever owns Marmite. It seems the head of Unilever is unaware it is made entirely in Britain and so is not subject to exchange rate pressures.
That doesn't follow, unless the main ingredient of marmite is fresh English seaside air and their plants are powered by cockneys peddling little bicycles.
OK but really it is quite simple. The GBP/USD is priced with a small spread so the buy and sell prices are fairly close together (the sell price is currently 1.29164). If you create and add it to a short watchlist it avoids having to search through lots of other trades when you want to take a position. Taking the position is as easy as it is on Betfair; just enter the stake and a couple of clicks.
The pricing is per 0.0001 so a stake of 1 is equivalent to buying about 12000 dollars. I am on City Index with a minimum stake size of 0.1 so you can effectively trade as little as 1200 dollars (equivalent). In reality the advantage is that you don't need to deposit anything like that amount - the margin requirements just ensure there is enough in the account to cover likely short-run fluctuations. The downside of not actually having to deposit the cash is that there's a small daily financing charge to maintain the position.
So many people are predicting further £ falls that my instinct is that we may be close to a floor, with further downside limited, at least until we get into the New Year and A50 starts to loom. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised to see some trading recovery meanwhile.
Thank you for the recommendation, but...sell at 1.29164 is a *small* spread? Today's midpoint is 1.225, yes? That's a spread of 6.5*2 (i.e. 13cents between buy and sell). Have I misunderstood you?
This spread thing is doing my head in. The smallest I've found is 6-8 cents (movement between a sterling account and dollar account in the same bank). Something like Tor or Tramonex is smaller but require a large minimum trading per year. Bureax de change is about 15 cents. The Halifax Clarity card is apparently spreadfree if Moneysupermarket is to be believed. Something to be looked into...
The boss of Tesco probably knows that. Does the Head of Unilever?
I suspect he does. Unilever owns Marmite!
Kraft Foods own Vegemite, but the slide in Sterling vs the Aus $ has been pretty steep, so up in cost by 18%, making good old British Marmite a bargain at just 10% up.
We know Unilever owns Marmite. It seems the head of Unilever is unaware it is made entirely in Britain and so is not subject to exchange rate pressures.
That doesn't follow, unless the main ingredient of marmite is fresh English seaside air and their plants are powered by cockneys peddling little bicycles.
It follows when their main ingredient is a waste product from something else that is also made in this country. Any way you cut it Unilever are talking bollocks. And the CEO of Tesco knows this because he was at Unilever for 27 years.
Comments
Gerry Cohen
@gercohen
NC waives statewide Oct 14 deadline for voter reg forms to be postmarked if USPS delivers to county by Weds Oct 19 https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/sboe/numbermemo/2016/Numbered_Memo_2016-19.pdf …
I am loving his work
If you're going to be that pedantic you can go even further and say that our ceasing to be a signatory constitutes a major change to the treaty that would remain in effect between the EU27 and which will continue to be of the utmost importance to our foreign and domestic policy.
https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/786257047960424448
(see previous thread...
People post on tinternet instead. I don't take the paucity of yard signs as an indicator of turnout.
How did your efforts go, btw?
@faisalislam: 7. LAbour, Tory sceptics, Clegg, Chancellor, business all using same language of "no one voted Brexit for people to lose jobs"
@faisalislam: 8. CPC genuinely had impact on biz confidence - reps in Brum staggered at gloating nature of hard Brexit fans, activated contingency plans
I used to rate Dominc Grieve, but, really, this is the silliest of arguments.
By comparison, almost all UK polls since 1945 show more people identify as Labour than Conservative, even when the Conservatives have big leads.
Remainers will try anything in their desperation.
I think we can expect Scott to start re-tweeting Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan at any moment.
The only thing that is different is the age cohort.
Those under the age of 30 get almost as many postal ballots as those aged 65, yet their rate of voting is only 1/3rd of those aged 65 and over:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cufeh28VYAAsqff.jpg
Young people are not voting shock.
Another Anna Soubry acolyte? goodness.
Von Clausewitz speaks of "friction": how in war everything becomes more difficult. Well he never had to change currency, that's for godsdamn sure. This is how it went:
* Taxi to airport for local Travelex
* Discover Travelex offer different rates instore than online. Decide to buy online
* Taxi from airport to office
* Try to buy currency online. Transaction collapses midstream
* A bit of poo comes out
* Phone up card company. Transaction was rejected because it was anomalous (I don't normally move that much cash around online). Answer many, many questions.
* Go to bank: confirm money was not withdrawn
* Try again. This time it goes thru with buyback guarantee.
* Arrange to pick up many many USD tomorrow
* Patiently print out confirmation, transaction details, proof of ID, get passport.
* Check market. Some MPs have rented a pair and have told May to cut the back to the Fifties s**t. Market does not collapse laughing but instead chooses to believe MPs with nuts exist. Well, it's a view. Pound rises after nine solid days of falls. I want my Mum.
You may look forward to me insisting repeatedly that this wasn't meant to make a profit, but was insurance. Yeah that's it, insurance: that'll work...
The buyback guarantee lasts for 45 days. I now have 45 days to find out what the largest Travelex is so I don't turn up only to be told that "actually we don't carry that much cash"
Grumble grumble grumble Dick Dastardly...
[1] Casino_Royale's position
[2] Richard_Tyndall's position
Any names in those tweets apart from the usual remaniac suspects? Any quotes? Any evidence?
Thought not. He's worse than George Eaton.
It was Grieve's remaniac tendencies I was referring to...
Turnourt compared with over 65's:
55-65: 2/3rds
30-55: 1/2
18-30: 1/3rd
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cufeh28VYAAsqff.jpg
In comparison with the 2015 GE in the UK, turnout of young people was about half of those over 65, the middle aged voted at around a 2/3rds rate.
Postal voting skews even older so far in North Carolina.
(However I do take your point.)
If he is then indeed he is ScottP.
http://nyti.ms/2dWCKjB
Ending the UK's involvement in the EU also threatens Grieve's knowledge base and livelihood.
It's easier in the movies: you press a button, lean back and cackle. In practice I've had to talk to bureaux staff, bank staff, fraud prevention staff, taxi drivers. I think the transaction finally went thru (I pick up the USD tomorrow) but I am concerned that Travelex will renege on their buyback guarantee or (more plausibly) claim they don't carry that much cash. For the next 45 days I will not be of a sunny disposition: I'll have to find out which Travelex is the biggest and can cover it. I can cover a loss of £500 without too much trouble but if GBP heads back over $1.30 it starts becoming nontrivial. Still, the only safe move is not to play...
Talking about polling concerns, it's not only the extremely low turnout for those under 65 in N.Carolina, there are more:
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/786258607616561152
I have the feeling that turnout in the 2016 election will be very different by age, it might go back to 1996-2000 levels.
Andrew Neil Retweeted
Fredd Says @FreddSays
1.Multi-part tweets don't work.2. Main ingredient is yeast sludge from breweries.Not imported.Will you ever do your bloody homework?@afneil https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/786327158037868544 …
I would also add.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/food/article-3023880/One-Midlands-factory-makes-world-s-Marmite-intrepid-reporter-loathes-stuff-astonished-there.html
The boss of Tesco probably knows that. Does the Head of Unilever?
I have always been absolutely clear about where I think we should end up but also equally clear about how that view does not seem to be popular amongst most if the supposed intelligentsia.
Is anyone really disputing that prices are going up as a result of the slide in Sterling? Indeed Brexiteers yesterday were touting a bit of inflation as a good thing, along with higher interest rates and fewer imports
I am all for Hard Brexit, and just wish the government would stop dithering and get on with it.
Kraft Foods own Vegemite, but the slide in Sterling vs the Aus $ has been pretty steep, so up in cost by 18%, making good old British Marmite a bargain at just 10% up.
I wonder if Dave Lewis is going to use it as an opportunity to cut down the number of product lines that Tesco has? Unilever may have set themselves up for a major disruption.
And if we go into Jam (I foresee the discussion going there), I bet Jeremy Corbyn makes cheaper Jam than Unilever.
I did have a financial spread betting account but I gave it up because it was too complicated and expensive - what I wanted was "I give you X thousand and if Y happens you give me Z thousand, savvy?", but what I got was a large complicated website with too-large minimum spreads, too many buttons to press and the minute you put in hundreds the numbers start sprinting up and down like a hoor's drawers. I made me a small profit and GTFO'd.
Unsarcastically, betting in a betting shop is easier: they're widely available, transactions require minimum paperwork, and they will pay up even if they have to send you to another shop.
INSA
CDU/CSU 29.5%
SPD 22.0%
AfD 15.0%
Linke 12.0%
Grüne 11.0%
FDP 6.5%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Trump usually leads nationally more with those aged 40-65, and loses those under 40 by 30%. Hillary gets leads that are very very large with those under 40.
Compared with 2012 the polls usually agree that Trump is doing slightly worse with the old, slightly better with middle aged, and much worse with the young.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-women-are-defeating-donald-trump/
The article included maps of these two results. And apparently the Trump campaign is now using the male Trump landslide in its fundraising literature, and claiming that Trump is making uge gains.
Also, there is a problem, no witnesses.
One was 30 years ago in a first class on an airplane, the other 11 years ago on an elevator, very conveniently no other person saw anything.
Do you really not expect price inflation as a result of the slide in Sterling?
Lack of credibility kills the story stone dead.
Lack of witnesses despite their claims of it being in an airplane and an elevator.
No other passengers saw it, no one else on the elevator saw it and no camera footage either from the elevator.
The pricing is per 0.0001 so a stake of 1 is equivalent to buying about 12000 dollars. I am on City Index with a minimum stake size of 0.1 so you can effectively trade as little as 1200 dollars (equivalent). In reality the advantage is that you don't need to deposit anything like that amount - the margin requirements just ensure there is enough in the account to cover likely short-run fluctuations. The downside of not actually having to deposit the cash is that there's a small daily financing charge to maintain the position.
So many people are predicting further £ falls that my instinct is that we may be close to a floor, with further downside limited, at least until we get into the New Year and A50 starts to loom. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised to see some trading recovery meanwhile.
We also know how Trump acts. He told everyone.
This spread thing is doing my head in. The smallest I've found is 6-8 cents (movement between a sterling account and dollar account in the same bank). Something like Tor or Tramonex is smaller but require a large minimum trading per year. Bureax de change is about 15 cents. The Halifax Clarity card is apparently spreadfree if Moneysupermarket is to be believed. Something to be looked into...
Faisal seems to be having another nervous breakdown
https://twitter.com/faisalislam
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=0&referer=