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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Hillary Clinton really the certainty that she now appears – the main topic in this week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast/TV Show
On this week’s PB/Polling Matters show Keiran is joined by US elections experts Mark Gettleson from Portobello Communications and hosts of the LSE US podcast ‘The Ballpark’ Denise Baron and Chris Gilson.
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Oh and first, unless Robert intervenes, again
next.
Re-introducing rationing would be the best thing that the Government could do to improve our health. Apart from only allowing bicycle or treadmill powered TV's, computors and smartphones.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/over-500-000-votes-have-already-been-cast-2016-presidential-n665196
Clinton is in real trouble now, with all those shy trumpers in PA pretending to be Dems
October 12, 2016
Florida Question Suggestions
We'll launch a new Florida poll tonight...obviously will touch on the races for President and Senate but any specific questions or topics you'd be interested in, fire away!
Can everyone please tweet PPP about asking a question why two thirds of Americans think the country is the wrong direction please. All the polls show this but none of them elaborate. Much appreciated.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/10/florida-question-suggestions.html
It's been top trend on Facebook for large chunk of today and some really awkward and embarrassing nuggets.
Much egg on lots of media faces. I note that Operation Squirrel is on Indy front page.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-poll-faq-20161006-snap-story.html
Two points struck me:
(1) According to their explanation, it was very accurate in 2012 on the popular vote (a predicted 3.32% Obama win vs 3.85% actual) and is using the same methodology again.
(2) To Nunu, 619, Alastair et al, you might not want to look at their reasoning on "shy Trump" - essentially they take the Plato line:
"Why? (to the question why they contact the same people every day and not chooses a different demographic)
One of the problems polls face is that sometimes partisans on one side are more enthusiastic about responding to questions than those on the other side. Maybe their candidate has had a particularly good week or the opposing candidate has had a bad one. When that happens, polls can suddenly shift simply because of who is willing to respond to a pollster’s call. That problem, called differential response, has been well-documented. By using a panel of the same people, we can ensure that when the poll results change, that shift reflects individuals changing their minds.
The short story is Dem and Independent early voting up a bit. Republican early voting down a lot.
Historically Republicans favour postal votes, Dems in person early voting.
Not even available on the BetFair state betting market.
You are honest but I find your desire to see him elected to sock it NATO and seek reproachment with Putin's Russia downright bizarre.
Trump Senior Adviser Promotes Trump Endorsement From Leading Anti-Semitic Hate Site
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/10/11/trump-senior-adviser-promotes-trump-endorsement-leading-anti-semitic-hate-site/213756
Hillary 47
Trump 43
Trump and Hillary tied with Favorables but Trump losing by 4 because although 41% of 18-29 have a favourale opinion of Trump he gets only 26% of their vote.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NV_101216.pdf
But NeverTrump Joe Heck is screwed as predicted.
Heck rejecting Trump makes you more or less likely to vote for him:
Less Likely 34%
More Likely 19%
No difference 45%
So Heck is now also losing his Senate battle because he renouned Trump.
This one is news because of Brexit and the currency drop. The worst thing that happens is that the supermarket takes a profit haircut, Unilever does or we pay a bit more for the product.
Rationing isn't going to happen, expect naturally and very modestly through the price mechanism.
This time, I've only seen two yard signs for the Presidential campaign in my area, both for Clinton. Seen a couple of Trump signs further upstate a month or so ago. Virtually no bumper stickers to be seen either, a few for Clinton, slightly fewer for Trump - there are still more Sanders stickers from the primaries to be seen!
Yet there is activity in my area - a crop of yard signs for the local state senate race appeared lately. It's very odd.
Salisbury's tends to be very good. Asda and Morrisons somewhere in the middle.
Mostly they relate to the affordability and availability of processed, junk and fast food. These are overconsumed by poor people in rich countries and rich people in poor countries:
We are only 27th in the league table of obesity. Even Australia and NZ beat us, as well as a variety of middle income countries:
http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/29-most-obese-countries-in-the-world.html
Is not the convention very clearly established that a major treaty change has to be triggered by an affirmative resolution of the House? The fact that that may only be a convention is still something that must be respected. After all, there are lots of conventions, such as the convention that a Government resign if they lose a vote of no confidence. That is no more than a convention, but Members might be a bit surprised if a Government were not to go in those circumstances.
Cohn's argument is highly persuasive to me. Look how simultaneously the Black and Male move in sync. One Black Trump voting dude is massively over-weighted. You can even see the echo in the 18-34 group.
He is the shy Trumper that other polls are not reaching.
This is the problem with rolling 24hr news. Everything is so much more magnified.
The country has to live in a perpetual state of crisis because otherwise it would make 90% of their "output" pointless (which it is)
sorry 'bout that.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/food/article-3023880/One-Midlands-factory-makes-world-s-Marmite-intrepid-reporter-loathes-stuff-astonished-there.html
UK faces Brexit divorce bill of up to €20bn
Unpaid budget appropriations, pension liabilities and other commitments make up total
https://www.ft.com/content/3c1eb988-9081-11e6-a72e-b428cb934b78
On the Ipsos national poll, it had a weighting of 47% Democrats, 31% Republican and 12% Independent, with Strong Democrats nearly x2 Strong Republicans (17% v 10%). Does that sound right on a national basis? Maybe it is but it looks odd and, given that Trump is leading amongst Independent Likely Voters in that poll (32%-24%), the weighting is critical.
On the Florida Opinion Survey poll, of the 533 people they polled, apparently 91% had watched the debate vs. c. 25% of the adult population who watched it live: presumably, more watched it online but not that many.
As you increase the number of small group you increase the chance of freak outliers. They may have got lucky and not had any explosive weightings affecting their results last time round.
Much prefer automatic to battery watches, hadn't realised they had quite such a long history.
We have butter shortages in Japan, because the government controls imports. Sometimes all the shops run out of butter. The British government is even less competent than the Japanese government, so yes, this will happen.
Insight West, National
Hillary 42
Trump 37
Johnson 6
Stein 2
http://www.insightswest.com/news/clinton-leads-trump-republicans-reject-changing-their-nominee/
Remainers should Suck this one up. As with the vote itself, by trying to win every battle they're losing the war.
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/10/us-2016-polls-getting-wrong.html/
The Lisbon Treaty gives all the power over article 50 to the members of the council of ministers, which only the PM is a member.
Just the sort of company that free trading Brexiteers should be cheering...
:-)