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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Clinton price moves to a record high on Betfair

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,504

    It is of course entirely possible to have a free trade area without free movement of people. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is an example of this......

    In each European country there is a small, globe-trotting elite. They often sneer at their own countries and reject national identity as being parochial and old-fashioned. These people are often loud cheerleaders for the EU – while they themselves see themselves as cosmopolitan ‘Europeans’. To them, national borders are simply an archaic annoyance.


    Remind you of anyone....?

    http://tinyurl.com/j6goae2

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/10/09/the-little-people-have-had-enough---not-just-here-but-in-america/
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    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Loving it - another thread of remain moaning.

    Passes the time.
    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    :innocent:
    2015/05/07: £1=$1.52
    2016/10/10: £1=$1.23

    :innocent
    A fall of 19%

    I raise you:

    08/09/1992: £1= $2.00

    01/03/1993: £1 = $1.43

    A fall of 29%.

    Followed by the longest boom the country has ever seen.

    We have seen it all before.

    Rejoice. Britain is free again.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Given nothing is sticking legally to Hillary yet this made me smile if this did. Guliani says he's been contacted by federal judge who considered bits of the Sunday debate as confession evidence over email deletion.

    WATCH: Trump supporters chant “Lock Her Up” at MASSIVE #Ambridge Rally in Pennsylvania..
    #TrumpTrain #MAGA https://t.co/1JdeIHNQro
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,504
    edited October 2016
    Has Oliver Letwin's Twitter Feed been hacked?

    https://twitter.com/Oliver_Letwin

    Someone is having some fun at his expense with a twin account!
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:



    Not really - it's more GOPers who've been become very Democrat in their policy outlook.

    Are there many of those?
    (Snip)
    I believe it's shorthand for people who have been loyal Republicans for years, yet who have committed the terrible, unforgivable crime (*) of not supporting Trump due to his comments. Well known wets such as Paul Ryan.

    In the same brain-dead way that the Labour moderates, in the eyes of some Corbynites, are not Labour.

    It's not politics: it's a cult.

    (*) Not real.**
    ** It will be if Trump gets in. Jail Them!!! (Or it will be in their minds)
    There's a great clip from O'Reilly Factor floating about where he sums up the concerns of the grassroots Republicans.

    He also broke a story that three big media companies have instructed their staff not to support Trump. It's a right old mess - CNN caught red handed coaching their debate focus group was a classic.
    I see this site is becoming a place where Looney tunes conspiracy theories such as above are given a fair hearing. Sad.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,681
    PlatoSaid said:

    In particular note that Trump can't lose, he can only be sabotaged, so if Trump appears to be losing on election day, that's proof of sabotage, and Trump enthusiasts spoil their down-ticket ballots.
    They really have let loose a monster haven't they?
    Trump's PA rally was extraordinary, venue full to capacity and thousands in overflow - queued for up to six hours to get in. The press pack were loudly booed as they came in, Trump kept getting the audience to turn round and heckle them. Chanting of FCUK CNN and Jail Her!!
    I'm not sure how productive abusing the press corp is going to be for Trump.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Loving it - another thread of remain moaning.

    Passes the time.
    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    :innocent:
    2015/05/07: £1=$1.52
    2016/10/10: £1=$1.23

    :innocent
    A fall of 19%

    I raise you:

    08/09/1992: £1= $2.00

    01/03/1993: £1 = $1.43

    A fall of 29%.

    Followed by the longest boom the country has ever seen.

    We have seen it all before.

    Rejoice. Britain is free again.
    And what happened to interest rates during that period? I don't think a hike in interest rates to prop up the pound would be a good idea, but those Remainers complaining about the value of the pound need to take a look at what one of their own is doing at the BoE.
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    PlatoSaid said:

    Given nothing is sticking legally to Hillary yet this made me smile if this did. Guliani says he's been contacted by federal judge who considered bits of the Sunday debate as confession evidence over email deletion.

    WATCH: Trump supporters chant “Lock Her Up” at MASSIVE #Ambridge Rally in Pennsylvania..
    #TrumpTrain #MAGA https://t.co/1JdeIHNQro

    yes, in the same way trump was contacted by the NFL predebates

    Did this imgainary judge say whether donald could be done for historial sexual assault crimes of he grans vaginas without permission?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,096
    IanB2 said:

    It is of course entirely possible to have a free trade area without free movement of people. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is an example of this......

    In each European country there is a small, globe-trotting elite. They often sneer at their own countries and reject national identity as being parochial and old-fashioned. These people are often loud cheerleaders for the EU – while they themselves see themselves as cosmopolitan ‘Europeans’. To them, national borders are simply an archaic annoyance.


    Remind you of anyone....?

    http://tinyurl.com/j6goae2

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/10/09/the-little-people-have-had-enough---not-just-here-but-in-america/
    Perhaps, just perhaps, referring to them (and I'm probably one of them) as 'the little people' is just as condescending as anything that spews out of the EU?

    A permanent problem with politics is people with power and influence, pretending (or worse believing) themselves to be 'one of the people' and not a lucky member of the elite. Farage is an archetypal example.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,504

    PlatoSaid said:

    In particular note that Trump can't lose, he can only be sabotaged, so if Trump appears to be losing on election day, that's proof of sabotage, and Trump enthusiasts spoil their down-ticket ballots.
    They really have let loose a monster haven't they?
    Trump's PA rally was extraordinary, venue full to capacity and thousands in overflow - queued for up to six hours to get in. The press pack were loudly booed as they came in, Trump kept getting the audience to turn round and heckle them. Chanting of FCUK CNN and Jail Her!!
    I'm not sure how productive abusing the press corp is going to be for Trump.
    The real story of history will be to explain how the GOP got itself into such a state that he ever stood any chance of becoming its nominee in the first place.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    PlatoSaid said:

    In particular note that Trump can't lose, he can only be sabotaged, so if Trump appears to be losing on election day, that's proof of sabotage, and Trump enthusiasts spoil their down-ticket ballots.
    They really have let loose a monster haven't they?
    Trump's PA rally was extraordinary, venue full to capacity and thousands in overflow - queued for up to six hours to get in. The press pack were loudly booed as they came in, Trump kept getting the audience to turn round and heckle them. Chanting of FCUK CNN and Jail Her!!
    Very reminiscent of Corbyn rallies.........
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    nunu said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:



    Not really - it's more GOPers who've been become very Democrat in their policy outlook.

    Are there many of those?
    (Snip)
    I believe it's shorthand for people who have been loyal Republicans for years, yet who have committed the terrible, unforgivable crime (*) of not supporting Trump due to his comments. Well known wets such as Paul Ryan.

    In the same brain-dead way that the Labour moderates, in the eyes of some Corbynites, are not Labour.

    It's not politics: it's a cult.

    (*) Not real.**
    ** It will be if Trump gets in. Jail Them!!! (Or it will be in their minds)
    There's a great clip from O'Reilly Factor floating about where he sums up the concerns of the grassroots Republicans.

    He also broke a story that three big media companies have instructed their staff not to support Trump. It's a right old mess - CNN caught red handed coaching their debate focus group was a classic.
    I see this site is becoming a place where Looney tunes conspiracy theories such as above are given a fair hearing. Sad.
    Reflecting the way the GOP has turned into a loony tunes conspiracy party as well
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,852
    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    In particular note that Trump can't lose, he can only be sabotaged, so if Trump appears to be losing on election day, that's proof of sabotage, and Trump enthusiasts spoil their down-ticket ballots.
    They really have let loose a monster haven't they?
    Trump's PA rally was extraordinary, venue full to capacity and thousands in overflow - queued for up to six hours to get in. The press pack were loudly booed as they came in, Trump kept getting the audience to turn round and heckle them. Chanting of FCUK CNN and Jail Her!!
    charming fellows. I'm sure it was just shorthand for "Jail her after an appropriate and constitutional legal process"

    There's a certain irony that someone who boasts of committing sexual assaults, and has amassed a fortune on the back of not paying taxes or small contractors, is trying to take the moral high ground.
    Threatening to jail your political opponents is not exactly the moral high ground.
    :-)

    The Atlantic story on this had an interesting bit of history concerning Wilmington, of which I wasn't aware.
    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/10/trumps-promise-to-jail-clinton-is-a-threat-to-american-democracy/503516/
    It was in Wilmington, in 1898, that a mob of armed white men exercised their Second Amendment rights to deprive thousands their fellow Americans of their own constitutional rights, and some—perhaps as few as nine, perhaps as many as 300—of their lives.

    The Wilmington insurrection was a coup d’etat. The officials of a mixed-race government were attacked by the political foes they had defeated at the ballot box. The mayor, board of aldermen, and police chief were forced to resign at gunpoint. More than a thousand black residents fled the city...
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,096
    nunu said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:



    Not really - it's more GOPers who've been become very Democrat in their policy outlook.

    Are there many of those?
    (Snip)
    I believe it's shorthand for people who have been loyal Republicans for years, yet who have committed the terrible, unforgivable crime (*) of not supporting Trump due to his comments. Well known wets such as Paul Ryan.

    In the same brain-dead way that the Labour moderates, in the eyes of some Corbynites, are not Labour.

    It's not politics: it's a cult.

    (*) Not real.**
    ** It will be if Trump gets in. Jail Them!!! (Or it will be in their minds)
    There's a great clip from O'Reilly Factor floating about where he sums up the concerns of the grassroots Republicans.

    He also broke a story that three big media companies have instructed their staff not to support Trump. It's a right old mess - CNN caught red handed coaching their debate focus group was a classic.
    I see this site is becoming a place where Looney tunes conspiracy theories such as above are given a fair hearing. Sad.
    My favourite conspiracy theory is an Argentinian one that they sunk HMS Ark Royal during the Falklands War. The contortions the believers have to go through when faced with facts are hilarious.

    For instance, did you know that the US built a fourth Invincible-class hull during the war, in secret, for the UK government, and this was swapped for one of the other ships, which in turn was swapped for the sunken Ark Royal?

    And all the media who were on the Ark Royal have kept stum for years ...
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    PlatoSaid said:

    In particular note that Trump can't lose, he can only be sabotaged, so if Trump appears to be losing on election day, that's proof of sabotage, and Trump enthusiasts spoil their down-ticket ballots.
    They really have let loose a monster haven't they?
    Trump's PA rally was extraordinary, venue full to capacity and thousands in overflow - queued for up to six hours to get in. The press pack were loudly booed as they came in, Trump kept getting the audience to turn round and heckle them. Chanting of FCUK CNN and Jail Her!!
    I dont think he will win but this election has a whiff of the 1930 German Federal Election about it.
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    I note that the PB Trumper Morning Shift has had extra sugar on her cornflakes today. Jesus wept.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    nunu said:

    The heir to Putin


    Sopan Deb Verified account
    @SopanDeb

    In Ambridge, Trump warns of voter fraud again - urges his supporters to "watch other communities."

    Not racist because he didn't say the N word.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    nunu said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:



    Not really - it's more GOPers who've been become very Democrat in their policy outlook.

    Are there many of those?
    (Snip)
    I believe it's shorthand for people who have been loyal Republicans for years, yet who have committed the terrible, unforgivable crime (*) of not supporting Trump due to his comments. Well known wets such as Paul Ryan.

    In the same brain-dead way that the Labour moderates, in the eyes of some Corbynites, are not Labour.

    It's not politics: it's a cult.

    (*) Not real.**
    ** It will be if Trump gets in. Jail Them!!! (Or it will be in their minds)
    There's a great clip from O'Reilly Factor floating about where he sums up the concerns of the grassroots Republicans.

    He also broke a story that three big media companies have instructed their staff not to support Trump. It's a right old mess - CNN caught red handed coaching their debate focus group was a classic.
    I see this site is becoming a place where Looney tunes conspiracy theories such as above are given a fair hearing. Sad.
    And who'd have believed that CNN would be caught live on air fixing a focus group and altering the worm? Or Paul Ryan's mate leaking against his own side?

    These aren't theories - they're happening now.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,728
    matt said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Ooh - Dan was a Romney guy

    Mike Cernovich
    .@dansenor Writing about #BillyBush tapes, hearing your wife (ex NBC) got a hold of tapes and you pushed the story for your boss. Comment?

    Those republicans are just one big, happy family, eh?
    See the OperationPurgeCucks hashtag for more happy familyness.
    What is a "cuck" by the way? I am afraid to google it
    Short for cuckold, apparently.

    The definition on UD is ... odd
    Another name for the great "Onision" leader of the cuckolds. In the cuck fashion, Onision is a liberal feminazi vegetarian only he has millions of followers from all around the world. All bow before the cuck king, Onision, lots of the cuckold empire.
    "There goes lord Onision again, being the biggest cuck in the history of cucks."
    Thank you kind warrior, cuckold of Onision!


    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=cuck

    Edit: Onision is, as far as I can tell, is a US Youtuber.
    Generally it seems to be shorthand for RINOs, GOP Establishment and turncoats especially NeverTrumpers
    Fascinating all this new langauge!

    I suppose RINO is Republican in Name Only? which seems to apply mainly to these lot threatening not to vote for republicans, only Trump..

    Not really - it's more GOPers who've been become very Democrat in their policy outlook. Provided you're loyal to the Party - that's fine even if it's very lukewarm or silent, it's the plotters/sabotagers who seem keener to keep their own bums on seats than choose SCOTUS etc.

    This is being seen as a watershed moment - very like more Cameron vs Brexit/May. And if the Dems win, then they'll essentially control the Supreme Court for decades.
    Rubbish. It's Republicans who think that Trump is, in your terminology, a RINO. As well as a misogynist, a sexual predator and ultimately destructive to Republicanism.
    That makes sense.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Scott_P said:

    Dominic Cummings of Vote Leave is tweeting some interesting stuff

    a/ Some of those on the Leave side now downplaying importance of immigration are in danger of self-delusion

    b/ The immigration of past 15 yrs/TV pics of refugee crisis was a necessary condition for Vote Leave to win but it was not sufficient

    c/ Idea that there was a majority for Leave based just on desire for democratic self-government is, unfortunately, a romantic delusion

    In other words the useful idiots were idiots, but useful.

    Well, duh...
    Dan Hannan's meltdown today has been a joy to view.
    His total amnesia about sitting on the board and agreed the strategy of an entity who fear mongered about immigration is stunning.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,504
    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    The heir to Putin


    Sopan Deb Verified account
    @SopanDeb

    In Ambridge, Trump warns of voter fraud again - urges his supporters to "watch other communities."

    Not racist because he didn't say the N word.
    Trump is trying to play the classic demagogue strategy but with the mistake that the people he is demonising together form a clear majority of the population.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,504
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    Dominic Cummings of Vote Leave is tweeting some interesting stuff

    a/ Some of those on the Leave side now downplaying importance of immigration are in danger of self-delusion

    b/ The immigration of past 15 yrs/TV pics of refugee crisis was a necessary condition for Vote Leave to win but it was not sufficient

    c/ Idea that there was a majority for Leave based just on desire for democratic self-government is, unfortunately, a romantic delusion

    In other words the useful idiots were idiots, but useful.

    Well, duh...
    Dan Hannan's meltdown today has been a joy to view.
    His total amnesia about sitting on the board and agreed the strategy of an entity who fear mongered about immigration is stunning.
    It does highlight the coming difficulty of holding together a consensus around Brexit, given that the winning coalition stretches from Farage through the libertarian right, various ambitious Tories including an increasingly statist PM, and across to leavers of the left. Inevitably a bloc of the leave campaign is going to break away and say "that's not the way to do it!".
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    In particular note that Trump can't lose, he can only be sabotaged, so if Trump appears to be losing on election day, that's proof of sabotage, and Trump enthusiasts spoil their down-ticket ballots.
    They really have let loose a monster haven't they?
    Trump's PA rally was extraordinary, venue full to capacity and thousands in overflow - queued for up to six hours to get in. The press pack were loudly booed as they came in, Trump kept getting the audience to turn round and heckle them. Chanting of FCUK CNN and Jail Her!!
    I'm not sure how productive abusing the press corp is going to be for Trump.
    They're 95% against him - so what's he got to lose? He's box office and they strain to report anything positive at all about him now. The coverage is so biased, it's worthless watching news or pundits. Evidence of your own eyes is required.

    The media edited out Billy Bush from the tapes - until someone stuck the whole thing on YouTube and he lost his gig at the Today show. I've seen Sky here do it very selectively. It's legion.

    The Wikileaks are packed with poodles who hand over questions in advance, let the DNC change headlines or approve articles, follow convenient agreed lines to change the subject. Now I expect a certain degree of this as it was once my job to do exactly this - but it's an epidemic now.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,504
    edited October 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    In particular note that Trump can't lose, he can only be sabotaged, so if Trump appears to be losing on election day, that's proof of sabotage, and Trump enthusiasts spoil their down-ticket ballots.
    They really have let loose a monster haven't they?
    Trump's PA rally was extraordinary, venue full to capacity and thousands in overflow - queued for up to six hours to get in. The press pack were loudly booed as they came in, Trump kept getting the audience to turn round and heckle them. Chanting of FCUK CNN and Jail Her!!
    I'm not sure how productive abusing the press corp is going to be for Trump.
    They're 95% against him - so what's he got to lose? He's box office and they strain to report anything positive at all about him now. The coverage is so biased, it's worthless watching news or pundits. Evidence of your own eyes is required.

    The media edited out Billy Bush from the tapes - until someone stuck the whole thing on YouTube and he lost his gig at the Today show. I've seen Sky here do it very selectively. It's legion.

    The Wikileaks are packed with poodles who hand over questions in advance, let the DNC change headlines or approve articles, follow convenient agreed lines to change the subject. Now I expect a certain degree of this as it was once my job to do exactly this - but it's an epidemic now.
    You are not selling yourself here!
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    Trump should only appear with a Colt 45 for the next three weeks. In the final 7 days before the poll he should start using it. Or something...
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    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016
    PlatoSaid said:
    I dont know whether Farage is right or wrong about what he says below at the end of his Telegraph article.

    But the liberal left in politics and the media are s*** scared that he might be right which is why we are seeing the current anti Trump hysteria.

    "I met many people at the rally in Jackson, Mississippi, who had never voted in their lives. They may produce an upset similar to Brexit. It does not matter what the opinion polls, bookmakers or markets say, because these new voters are hard to measure."
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited October 2016
    IanB2 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    In particular note that Trump can't lose, he can only be sabotaged, so if Trump appears to be losing on election day, that's proof of sabotage, and Trump enthusiasts spoil their down-ticket ballots.
    They really have let loose a monster haven't they?
    Trump's PA rally was extraordinary, venue full to capacity and thousands in overflow - queued for up to six hours to get in. The press pack were loudly booed as they came in, Trump kept getting the audience to turn round and heckle them. Chanting of FCUK CNN and Jail Her!!
    I'm not sure how productive abusing the press corp is going to be for Trump.
    They're 95% against him - so what's he got to lose? He's box office and they strain to report anything positive at all about him now. The coverage is so biased, it's worthless watching news or pundits. Evidence of your own eyes is required.

    The media edited out Billy Bush from the tapes - until someone stuck the whole thing on YouTube and he lost his gig at the Today show. I've seen Sky here do it very selectively. It's legion.

    The Wikileaks are packed with poodles who hand over questions in advance, let the DNC change headlines or approve articles, follow convenient agreed lines to change the subject. Now I expect a certain degree of this as it was once my job to do exactly this - but it's an epidemic now.
    You are not selling yourself here!
    That's PR - convincing others you're a good source, will cultivate a mutually helpful relationship based on trust and confidence in your expertise/product/whatever. The greatest accolade is to see your own words appear in the right target publication - or you're a go-to subject talking head. I'm talking 10yrs ago when churnalism wasn't rampant.

    I don't blame the DNC for exploiting it well - but the balance feels all wrong here.
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    619 said:
    Still, I'd like to imagine that these are folk who made their choice months ago and have blissfully tuned out since then, their only connection with the election to send in the same e-mail every day.
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    Just imagine if this was in Köln.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/785735855264628760
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,997
    IanB2 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    In particular note that Trump can't lose, he can only be sabotaged, so if Trump appears to be losing on election day, that's proof of sabotage, and Trump enthusiasts spoil their down-ticket ballots.
    They really have let loose a monster haven't they?
    Trump's PA rally was extraordinary, venue full to capacity and thousands in overflow - queued for up to six hours to get in. The press pack were loudly booed as they came in, Trump kept getting the audience to turn round and heckle them. Chanting of FCUK CNN and Jail Her!!
    I'm not sure how productive abusing the press corp is going to be for Trump.
    The real story of history will be to explain how the GOP got itself into such a state that he ever stood any chance of becoming its nominee in the first place.
    That's not so strange. Many European countries could also propel someone like Trump to prominence, although they'd probably have a ceiling of 20-25% or so.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Good morning everyone. A few quick comments on Clinton-Trump.

    Trump is walking on the edge. If he wins then he probably will try to put Clinton in jail, but if he loses I wouldn't fancy his own chances of avoiding waking up to stripy sunshine. That gives us a gap that may yet lead to Trump's negotiated withdrawal before the election. Pence at 230 is a buy.

    There is a lot of time left. Even after the final TV debate on 19 October, there will be 20 days before the election.

    There is a weakness in how Clinton responds to the attacks on her. It's going to get dirtier.

    Trump has said "If they want to release more tapes saying inappropriate things, we'll continue to talk about Bill and Hillary Clinton doing inappropriate things. There are so many of them, folks," he said. Well, Chris Nee says - in a tweet that appears now to have been deleted - that he heard from Apprentice producers and crew that Trump is on tape saying "n*gger". If that is true, and the tape is released, then surely, surely Trump is finished right away? Or am I too optimistic? What will he then say in response about the "devil"?

    There are Clinton documents to be released by the State Department on orders of the Supreme Court before the election. People say the most ridiculous things about Clinton. I encountered a Trump supporter yesterday who was laying into her for having acted for a child molester when she was a lawyer. So what? I was trying to get it into his thick skull that even scumbags are entitled to legal representation and that if he didn't like the plea bargain he should blame the prosecution, and if he didn't like the questioning, then he should blame the judge for allowing it, because it's a lawyer's job to present their client's case in the best way, and their own opinion of whether their client is lying (provided the client hasn't confessed to them, of course) is irrelevant.

    The Trump Foundation has ongoing trouble in the state of New York, where it has been receiving donations as a charity without having charity status and presumably without having paid tax. Will it be able to come up with the requested documents?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,125
    Brilliant
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    PlatoSaid said:
    I dont know whether Farage is right or wrong about what he says below at the end of his Telegraph article.

    But the liberal left in politics and the media are s*** scared that he might be right which is why we are seeing the current anti Trump hysteria.

    "I met many people at the rally in Jackson, Mississippi, who had never voted in their lives. They may produce an upset similar to Brexit. It does not matter what the opinion polls, bookmakers or markets say, because these new voters are hard to measure."
    That is the several billion dollar question. Leave was a different enough proposition to the political parties that those who think "why bother, they're all the same" found a reason to bother. Is Trump? I doubt it, which is why I'm not betting on him at the moment.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:
    I dont know whether Farage is right or wrong about what he says below at the end of his Telegraph article.

    But the liberal left in politics and the media are s*** scared that he might be right which is why we are seeing the current anti Trump hysteria.

    "I met many people at the rally in Jackson, Mississippi, who had never voted in their lives. They may produce an upset similar to Brexit. It does not matter what the opinion polls, bookmakers or markets say, because these new voters are hard to measure."
    The reports of dead vote, illegals registering is worrying. The window for registration closes in 11 states today IIRC.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-08/dead-people-and-illegal-immigrants-are-being-registered-vote-all-over-america

    "Of course there are lots of other examples of this kind of thing happening around the nation. In the swing state of Colorado, an investigation has uncovered a “very serious” pattern of dead people actually casting votes in multiple elections. One has to wonder how long this has been going on…
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    619619 Posts: 1,784

    PlatoSaid said:
    I dont know whether Farage is right or wrong about what he says below at the end of his Telegraph article.

    But the liberal left in politics and the media are s*** scared that he might be right which is why we are seeing the current anti Trump hysteria.

    "I met many people at the rally in Jackson, Mississippi, who had never voted in their lives. They may produce an upset similar to Brexit. It does not matter what the opinion polls, bookmakers or markets say, because these new voters are hard to measure."
    That is the several billion dollar question. Leave was a different enough proposition to the political parties that those who think "why bother, they're all the same" found a reason to bother. Is Trump? I doubt it, which is why I'm not betting on him at the moment.
    also, mississippi doesnt matter.

    No evidence of a massive increase in the manner Trump needs in registration
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    malcolmg said:

    Brilliant
    That guy with the banner can talk. There's another word used to refer to the same body part that is crying out to be applied to someone like Trump who mocks some people's disabilities while boasting about being able to grab other people's genitals. It says a lot about the US that such a man is scoring above 40% in the polls.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,096

    PlatoSaid said:
    I dont know whether Farage is right or wrong about what he says below at the end of his Telegraph article.

    But the liberal left in politics and the media are s*** scared that he might be right which is why we are seeing the current anti Trump hysteria.

    "I met many people at the rally in Jackson, Mississippi, who had never voted in their lives. They may produce an upset similar to Brexit. It does not matter what the opinion polls, bookmakers or markets say, because these new voters are hard to measure."
    The anti-Trump sentiment (*) is nothing to do with the liberal left or the media. If it was, he would not be getting the opposition he is seeing from within the GOP.

    It's to do with the fact that Trump is in no way a credible candidate to be president of Venezuela, yet alone the world's most powerful country. I would say what I think he is, but it would have some on here screaming 'safe space!'.

    (*) You call it hysteria. That word seems more apt for the pro-Trump people, as seen on this thread.
  • Options
    Is "jibe" not a rather derogatory summary given the context?

    "MP in 'Nazis' jibe ahead of UK Syria debate"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    PlatoSaid said:

    they strain to report anything positive at all about him now

    what could they say?

  • Options
    For those that get excited by the Wikileaks stuff and wonder why it isn't damaging Clinton

    https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/785629177416290304
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    PlatoSaid said:

    they strain to report anything positive at all about him now

    what could they say?

    Hehe
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    Dromedary said:

    Good morning everyone. A few quick comments on Clinton-Trump.

    Trump is walking on the edge. If he wins then he probably will try to put Clinton in jail, but if he loses I wouldn't fancy his own chances of avoiding waking up to stripy sunshine. That gives us a gap that may yet lead to Trump's negotiated withdrawal before the election. Pence at 230 is a buy.

    There is a lot of time left. Even after the final TV debate on 19 October, there will be 20 days before the election.

    There is a weakness in how Clinton responds to the attacks on her. It's going to get dirtier.

    Trump has said "If they want to release more tapes saying inappropriate things, we'll continue to talk about Bill and Hillary Clinton doing inappropriate things. There are so many of them, folks," he said. Well, Chris Nee says - in a tweet that appears now to have been deleted - that he heard from Apprentice producers and crew that Trump is on tape saying "n*gger". If that is true, and the tape is released, then surely, surely Trump is finished right away? Or am I too optimistic? What will he then say in response about the "devil"?

    There are Clinton documents to be released by the State Department on orders of the Supreme Court before the election. People say the most ridiculous things about Clinton. I encountered a Trump supporter yesterday who was laying into her for having acted for a child molester when she was a lawyer. So what? I was trying to get it into his thick skull that even scumbags are entitled to legal representation and that if he didn't like the plea bargain he should blame the prosecution, and if he didn't like the questioning, then he should blame the judge for allowing it, because it's a lawyer's job to present their client's case in the best way, and their own opinion of whether their client is lying (provided the client hasn't confessed to them, of course) is irrelevant.

    The Trump Foundation has ongoing trouble in the state of New York, where it has been receiving donations as a charity without having charity status and presumably without having paid tax. Will it be able to come up with the requested documents?

    Why do you think that the hard core of Trump's fans approve of "due process"? Surely they think it more manly to shoot first & ask questions afterwards?

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,096
    Dromedary said:

    Good morning everyone. A few quick comments on Clinton-Trump.

    Trump is walking on the edge. If he wins then he probably will try to put Clinton in jail, but if he loses I wouldn't fancy his own chances of avoiding waking up to stripy sunshine. That gives us a gap that may yet lead to Trump's negotiated withdrawal before the election. Pence at 230 is a buy.

    There is a lot of time left. Even after the final TV debate on 19 October, there will be 20 days before the election.

    There is a weakness in how Clinton responds to the attacks on her. It's going to get dirtier.

    Trump has said "If they want to release more tapes saying inappropriate things, we'll continue to talk about Bill and Hillary Clinton doing inappropriate things. There are so many of them, folks," he said. Well, Chris Nee says - in a tweet that appears now to have been deleted - that he heard from Apprentice producers and crew that Trump is on tape saying "n*gger". If that is true, and the tape is released, then surely, surely Trump is finished right away? Or am I too optimistic? What will he then say in response about the "devil"?

    There are Clinton documents to be released by the State Department on orders of the Supreme Court before the election. People say the most ridiculous things about Clinton. I encountered a Trump supporter yesterday who was laying into her for having acted for a child molester when she was a lawyer. So what? I was trying to get it into his thick skull that even scumbags are entitled to legal representation and that if he didn't like the plea bargain he should blame the prosecution, and if he didn't like the questioning, then he should blame the judge for allowing it, because it's a lawyer's job to present their client's case in the best way, and their own opinion of whether their client is lying (provided the client hasn't confessed to them, of course) is irrelevant.

    The Trump Foundation has ongoing trouble in the state of New York, where it has been receiving donations as a charity without having charity status and presumably without having paid tax. Will it be able to come up with the requested documents?

    An excellent post.

    (I don't think this was on the list of things that should be banned on PB. ;) )

    Both candidates are underwhelming and have issues that could torpedo their election. Either could still win.

    Sadly.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,125
    Dromedary said:

    malcolmg said:

    Brilliant
    That guy with the banner can talk. There's another word used to refer to the same body part that is crying out to be applied to someone like Trump who mocks some people's disabilities while boasting about being able to grab other people's genitals. It says a lot about the US that such a man is scoring above 40% in the polls.
    The man may be an arse but he is no worse than and ulimately would do less harm than Clinton. Far better a buffoon in the white house than the Clintons for sure.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Good morning, everyone.

    I don't think there will be a surprise (although, if I did, it wouldn't be a surprise any more).
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    PlatoSaid said:
    I dont know whether Farage is right or wrong about what he says below at the end of his Telegraph article.

    But the liberal left in politics and the media are s*** scared that he might be right which is why we are seeing the current anti Trump hysteria.

    "I met many people at the rally in Jackson, Mississippi, who had never voted in their lives. They may produce an upset similar to Brexit. It does not matter what the opinion polls, bookmakers or markets say, because these new voters are hard to measure."
    The anti-Trump sentiment (*) is nothing to do with the liberal left or the media. If it was, he would not be getting the opposition he is seeing from within the GOP.

    It's to do with the fact that Trump is in no way a credible candidate to be president of Venezuela, yet alone the world's most powerful country. I would say what I think he is, but it would have some on here screaming 'safe space!'.

    (*) You call it hysteria. That word seems more apt for the pro-Trump people, as seen on this thread.
    The attention is on Trumps demagogery, boorishness, misgyny tax dodging etc. All significant character issues of course, though his poor temprament tops these.

    There has been far too little serious discussion of his idiotic policies such as cutting taxes to 15%, yet increasing spending on the military, ripping up the alliances with NATO and South Korea, ripping up trade agreements and starting a trade war.

  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Loving it - another thread of remain moaning.

    Passes the time.
    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    :innocent:
    2015/05/07: £1=$1.52
    2016/10/10: £1=$1.23

    :innocent
    A fall of 19%

    I raise you:

    08/09/1992: £1= $2.00

    01/03/1993: £1 = $1.43

    A fall of 29%.

    Followed by the longest boom the country has ever seen.

    We have seen it all before.
    .
    Yes, when we were in the single market and had barrier free trade with europe. I imagine all the immigration we had during that time also helped with gdp growth figures.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited October 2016
    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it. I don't need to consult Google for an explanation.
  • Options

    PlatoSaid said:
    I dont know whether Farage is right or wrong about what he says below at the end of his Telegraph article.

    But the liberal left in politics and the media are s*** scared that he might be right which is why we are seeing the current anti Trump hysteria.

    "I met many people at the rally in Jackson, Mississippi, who had never voted in their lives. They may produce an upset similar to Brexit. It does not matter what the opinion polls, bookmakers or markets say, because these new voters are hard to measure."
    The anti-Trump sentiment (*) is nothing to do with the liberal left or the media. If it was, he would not be getting the opposition he is seeing from within the GOP.

    It's to do with the fact that Trump is in no way a credible candidate to be president of Venezuela, yet alone the world's most powerful country. I would say what I think he is, but it would have some on here screaming 'safe space!'.

    (*) You call it hysteria. That word seems more apt for the pro-Trump people, as seen on this thread.
    The attention is on Trumps demagogery, boorishness, misgyny tax dodging etc. All significant character issues of course, though his poor temprament tops these.

    There has been far too little serious discussion of his idiotic policies such as cutting taxes to 15%, yet increasing spending on the military, ripping up the alliances with NATO and South Korea, ripping up trade agreements and starting a trade war.

    Whilst I agree with you, I think the reason no one has really looked at those things is because it is his underlying character that is so overwhelmingly unsuited to any sort of elected office. With such a fundamentally unhinged character as Trump I doubt anyone actually believes anything he says at all so whatever his policy claims might be they are totally overwhelmed by the basic lunacy of his personality.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,728
    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it.

    Plato, the trouble is that you come over as biased in favour of right wing issues generally and Trump in particular. I'm sorry if I have misjudged you.
    I'm all in favour of facts, but they're a bit thin on the ground on Fox News chat shows.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,445
    Morning all,

    There's some interesting stuff over at http://election.princeton.edu/ on POTUS run. They have Clinton on 95%.

    Including answer to this little question from a reader of the blog:

    Question if “one candidate leading an ‘open seat’ presidential race from wire-to-wire is almost unprecedented.”
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784
    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it. I don't need to consult Google for an explanation.

    well its not insight, it posting bullshit wikileaks propaganda. But crack on if u want!
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JonathanD said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Loving it - another thread of remain moaning.

    Passes the time.
    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    :innocent:
    2015/05/07: £1=$1.52
    2016/10/10: £1=$1.23

    :innocent
    A fall of 19%

    I raise you:

    08/09/1992: £1= $2.00

    01/03/1993: £1 = $1.43

    A fall of 29%.

    Followed by the longest boom the country has ever seen.

    We have seen it all before.
    .
    Yes, when we were in the single market and had barrier free trade with europe. I imagine all the immigration we had during that time also helped with gdp growth figures.
    There were a number of other important reasons for the good economic performance, notably strong economic growth elsewhere in the world, particularly Clinton's America but also in the ERM area, the peace dividend from the end of the cold war, a balanced budget - or one in surplus, etc. The devaluation was inevitable but not soley the cause of the economic growth.

    We see in a number of other countries that devaluation produces a short term spurt as part of a failure to tackle underlying issues.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it. I don't need to consult Google for an explanation.

    You do seem to be campaigning 24/7 for Trump rather than providing any kind of objective comment. It gets tiring.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Loving it - another thread of remain moaning.

    Passes the time.
    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    :innocent:
    2015/05/07: £1=$1.52
    2016/10/10: £1=$1.23

    :innocent
    A fall of 19%

    I raise you:

    08/09/1992: £1= $2.00

    01/03/1993: £1 = $1.43

    A fall of 29%.

    Followed by the longest boom the country has ever seen.

    We have seen it all before.

    Rejoice. Britain is free again.
    Yes. But it was also the longest boom in the US (running through to 2007, with only a little hiccup around the millennium). And Australia, Spain, Greece, Ireland and Portugal. (Who didn't even have the blips around 2000.)
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2016
    PlatoSaid said:



    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it. I don't need to consult Google for an explanation.

    It you could share some that weren't made up, falsified or otherwise fabricated that would be good.
  • Options

    PlatoSaid said:
    I dont know whether Farage is right or wrong about what he says below at the end of his Telegraph article.

    But the liberal left in politics and the media are s*** scared that he might be right which is why we are seeing the current anti Trump hysteria.

    "I met many people at the rally in Jackson, Mississippi, who had never voted in their lives. They may produce an upset similar to Brexit. It does not matter what the opinion polls, bookmakers or markets say, because these new voters are hard to measure."
    The anti-Trump sentiment (*) is nothing to do with the liberal left or the media. If it was, he would not be getting the opposition he is seeing from within the GOP.

    It's to do with the fact that Trump is in no way a credible candidate to be president of Venezuela, yet alone the world's most powerful country. I would say what I think he is, but it would have some on here screaming 'safe space!'.

    (*) You call it hysteria. That word seems more apt for the pro-Trump people, as seen on this thread.
    Establishment might have been a better word but I do feel you are sort of reinforcing my point.

    Im commenting not campaigning as messers Plato and 619 appear to be.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,096
    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it. I don't need to consult Google for an explanation.

    What insight have you shown?

    A hint: posting links and twitter effluent is not insight.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,408

    PlatoSaid said:
    I dont know whether Farage is right or wrong about what he says below at the end of his Telegraph article.

    But the liberal left in politics and the media are s*** scared that he might be right which is why we are seeing the current anti Trump hysteria.

    "I met many people at the rally in Jackson, Mississippi, who had never voted in their lives. They may produce an upset similar to Brexit. It does not matter what the opinion polls, bookmakers or markets say, because these new voters are hard to measure."
    The anti-Trump sentiment (*) is nothing to do with the liberal left or the media. If it was, he would not be getting the opposition he is seeing from within the GOP.

    It's to do with the fact that Trump is in no way a credible candidate to be president of Venezuela, yet alone the world's most powerful country. I would say what I think he is, but it would have some on here screaming 'safe space!'.

    (*) You call it hysteria. That word seems more apt for the pro-Trump people, as seen on this thread.
    The attention is on Trumps demagogery, boorishness, misgyny tax dodging etc. All significant character issues of course, though his poor temprament tops these.

    There has been far too little serious discussion of his idiotic policies such as cutting taxes to 15%, yet increasing spending on the military, ripping up the alliances with NATO and South Korea, ripping up trade agreements and starting a trade war.

    Whilst I agree with you, I think the reason no one has really looked at those things is because it is his underlying character that is so overwhelmingly unsuited to any sort of elected office. With such a fundamentally unhinged character as Trump I doubt anyone actually believes anything he says at all so whatever his policy claims might be they are totally overwhelmed by the basic lunacy of his personality.
    Agreed. In addition there is no chance that even a republican congress would allow him to implement the vast majority of his platform. The chances of a republican congress are falling rapidly with Trump's own standing and the war within the party is likely to aggravate that.
  • Options

    Dromedary said:

    Good morning everyone. A few quick comments on Clinton-Trump.

    Trump is walking on the edge. If he wins then he probably will try to put Clinton in jail, but if he loses I wouldn't fancy his own chances of avoiding waking up to stripy sunshine. That gives us a gap that may yet lead to Trump's negotiated withdrawal before the election. Pence at 230 is a buy.

    There is a lot of time left. Even after the final TV debate on 19 October, there will be 20 days before the election.

    There is a weakness in how Clinton responds to the attacks on her. It's going to get dirtier.

    Trump has said "If they want to release more tapes saying inappropriate things, we'll continue to talk about Bill and Hillary Clinton doing inappropriate things. There are so many of them, folks," he said. Well, Chris Nee says - in a tweet that appears now to have been deleted - that he heard from Apprentice producers and crew that Trump is on tape saying "n*gger". If that is true, and the tape is released, then surely, surely Trump is finished right away? Or am I too optimistic? What will he then say in response about the "devil"?

    There are Clinton documents to be released by the State Department on orders of the Supreme Court before the election. People say the most ridiculous things about Clinton. I encountered a Trump supporter yesterday who was laying into her for having acted for a child molester when she was a lawyer. So what? I was trying to get it into his thick skull that even scumbags are entitled to legal representation and that if he didn't like the plea bargain he should blame the prosecution, and if he didn't like the questioning, then he should blame the judge for allowing it, because it's a lawyer's job to present their client's case in the best way, and their own opinion of whether their client is lying (provided the client hasn't confessed to them, of course) is irrelevant.

    The Trump Foundation has ongoing trouble in the state of New York, where it has been receiving donations as a charity without having charity status and presumably without having paid tax. Will it be able to come up with the requested documents?

    An excellent post.

    (I don't think this was on the list of things that should be banned on PB. ;) )

    Both candidates are underwhelming and have issues that could torpedo their election. Either could still win.

    Sadly.
    Is there a ban list?
  • Options
    Wasn't it Karl Marx who said something about history repeating itself as farce:

    ' A group fronted by Paul Weller will take part in a concert in support of the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, the Momentum campaign group has announced.

    The Brighton gig will be the first of a national series of “concerts for Corbyn”, with artists on the lineup including indie veterans the Farm, psychedelic group Temples and singer-songwriter Kathryn Williams.

    Other acts on the bill for the 16 December event include Stealing Sheep, Jim Jones and the Righteous Mind, Edgar “Summertyme” Jones and Ghetto Priest.

    Weller, the former Jam and Style Council frontman, has experience of political concerts after playing a leading role in the Red Wedge campaign, which supported Neil Kinnock’s Labour in the 1980s.

    He will be joined by former Soft Machine star Robert Wyatt as well as Danny Thompson, Steve Pilgrim and Ben Gordelier.

    The £25 show at Brighton Dome is intended as the first of a series called People Powered: Concerts for Corbyn, organised by the promoter Rocksalts in association with Momentum. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2016/oct/10/paul-weller-concert-for-corbyn-brighton-people-powered-gigs-momentum
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it. I don't need to consult Google for an explanation.

    This election is not like Brexit. As has been pointed out repeatedly, WWC voters are not the swing voters in the states that matters. Trump is succeeding in making the very red states even more red, and losing the swing states.

    As for supposedly ignoring insights on Brexit, most people on here made a lot of money betting on Leave, including myself (despite being a firm Remain voter) because it was clear that the chance of a Leave vote was far higher than the betting markets were predicting. In contrast the US presidential markets seem appropriately priced right now. Trump has a chance, but it's an outside one.
  • Options
    @davidaxelrod: In the modern era, no POTUS candidate has overcome an 11 point deficit, or anything close to it, 30 days before an election.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    PlatoSaid said:
    I dont know whether Farage is right or wrong about what he says below at the end of his Telegraph article.

    But the liberal left in politics and the media are s*** scared that he might be right which is why we are seeing the current anti Trump hysteria.

    "I met many people at the rally in Jackson, Mississippi, who had never voted in their lives. They may produce an upset similar to Brexit. It does not matter what the opinion polls, bookmakers or markets say, because these new voters are hard to measure."
    The anti-Trump sentiment (*) is nothing to do with the liberal left or the media. If it was, he would not be getting the opposition he is seeing from within the GOP.

    It's to do with the fact that Trump is in no way a credible candidate to be president of Venezuela, yet alone the world's most powerful country. I would say what I think he is, but it would have some on here screaming 'safe space!'.

    (*) You call it hysteria. That word seems more apt for the pro-Trump people, as seen on this thread.
    The attention is on Trumps demagogery, boorishness, misgyny tax dodging etc. All significant character issues of course, though his poor temprament tops these.

    There has been far too little serious discussion of his idiotic policies such as cutting taxes to 15%, yet increasing spending on the military, ripping up the alliances with NATO and South Korea, ripping up trade agreements and starting a trade war.

    Whilst I agree with you, I think the reason no one has really looked at those things is because it is his underlying character that is so overwhelmingly unsuited to any sort of elected office. With such a fundamentally unhinged character as Trump I doubt anyone actually believes anything he says at all so whatever his policy claims might be they are totally overwhelmed by the basic lunacy of his personality.
    In short, we suspect Hillary of lying, while we hope that Trump is!

  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited October 2016

    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it.

    Plato, the trouble is that you come over as biased in favour of right wing issues generally and Trump in particular. I'm sorry if I have misjudged you.
    I'm all in favour of facts, but they're a bit thin on the ground on Fox News chat shows.
    I reflect an opinion that's in very short supply on here. If most posters just go URGH and dismiss - we learn nothing at all.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,408

    @davidaxelrod: In the modern era, no POTUS candidate has overcome an 11 point deficit, or anything close to it, 30 days before an election.

    Mind you there probably has not been a leading candidate as flawed and vulnerable as HRC. It is still not completely impossible that something blows up.
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016
    DavidL said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    I dont know whether Farage is right or wrong about what he says below at the end of his Telegraph article.

    But the liberal left in politics and the media are s*** scared that he might be right which is why we are seeing the current anti Trump hysteria.

    "I met many people at the rally in Jackson, Mississippi, who had never voted in their lives. They may produce an upset similar to Brexit. It does not matter what the opinion polls, bookmakers or markets say, because these new voters are hard to measure."
    The anti-Trump sentiment (*) is nothing to do with the liberal left or the media. If it was, he would not be getting the opposition he is seeing from within the GOP.

    It's to do with the fact that Trump is in no way a credible candidate to be president of Venezuela, yet alone the world's most powerful country. I would say what I think he is, but it would have some on here screaming 'safe space!'.

    (*) You call it hysteria. That word seems more apt for the pro-Trump people, as seen on this thread.
    The attention is on Trumps demagogery, boorishness, misgyny tax dodging etc. All significant character issues of course, though his poor temprament tops these.

    There has been far too little serious discussion of his idiotic policies such as cutting taxes to 15%, yet increasing spending on the military, ripping up the alliances with NATO and South Korea, ripping up trade agreements and starting a trade war.

    Whilst I agree with you, I think the reason no one has really looked at those things is because it is his underlying character that is so overwhelmingly unsuited to any sort of elected office. With such a fundamentally unhinged character as Trump I doubt anyone actually believes anything he says at all so whatever his policy claims might be they are totally overwhelmed by the basic lunacy of his personality.
    Agreed. In addition there is no chance that even a republican congress would allow him to implement the vast majority of his platform. The chances of a republican congress are falling rapidly with Trump's own standing and the war within the party is likely to aggravate that.
    Thats why Malc is right that a Clinton victory would be far worse in many ways - especially if the Dems win the Senate too.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it. I don't need to consult Google for an explanation.

    What insight have you shown?

    A hint: posting links and twitter effluent is not insight.
    Since your illness - you've done little to interact with me that isn't rude. Don't like me, fine - scroll by.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    DavidL said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    I dont know whether Farage is right or wrong about what he says below at the end of his Telegraph article.

    But the liberal left in politics and the media are s*** scared that he might be right which is why we are seeing the current anti Trump hysteria.

    "I met many people at the rally in Jackson, Mississippi, who had never voted in their lives. They may produce an upset similar to Brexit. It does not matter what the opinion polls, bookmakers or markets say, because these new voters are hard to measure."
    The anti-Trump sentiment (*) is nothing to do with the liberal left or the media. If it was, he would not be getting the opposition he is seeing from within the GOP.

    It's to do with the fact that Trump is in no way a credible candidate to be president of Venezuela, yet alone the world's most powerful country. I would say what I think he is, but it would have some on here screaming 'safe space!'.

    (*) You call it hysteria. That word seems more apt for the pro-Trump people, as seen on this thread.
    The attention is on Trumps demagogery, boorishness, misgyny tax dodging etc. All significant character issues of course, though his poor temprament tops these.

    There has been far too little serious discussion of his idiotic policies such as cutting taxes to 15%, yet increasing spending on the military, ripping up the alliances with NATO and South Korea, ripping up trade agreements and starting a trade war.

    Whilst I agree with you, I think the reason no one has really looked at those things is because it is his underlying character that is so overwhelmingly unsuited to any sort of elected office. With such a fundamentally unhinged character as Trump I doubt anyone actually believes anything he says at all so whatever his policy claims might be they are totally overwhelmed by the basic lunacy of his personality.
    Agreed. In addition there is no chance that even a republican congress would allow him to implement the vast majority of his platform. The chances of a republican congress are falling rapidly with Trump's own standing and the war within the party is likely to aggravate that.
    I've always had the strong impression that Pence is doing the political insider stuff - and Trump is frontman banging heads together.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,096

    Dromedary said:

    Good morning everyone. A few quick comments on Clinton-Trump.

    Trump is walking on the edge. If he wins then he probably will try to put Clinton in jail, but if he loses I wouldn't fancy his own chances of avoiding waking up to stripy sunshine. That gives us a gap that may yet lead to Trump's negotiated withdrawal before the election. Pence at 230 is a buy.

    There is a lot of time left. Even after the final TV debate on 19 October, there will be 20 days before the election.

    There is a weakness in how Clinton responds to the attacks on her. It's going to get dirtier.

    Trump has said "If they want to release more tapes saying inappropriate things, we'll continue to talk about Bill and Hillary Clinton doing inappropriate things. There are so many of them, folks," he said. Well, Chris Nee says - in a tweet that appears now to have been deleted - that he heard from Apprentice producers and crew that Trump is on tape saying "n*gger". If that is true, and the tape is released, then surely, surely Trump is finished right away? Or am I too optimistic? What will he then say in response about the "devil"?

    There are Clinton documents to be released by the State Department on orders of the Supreme Court before the election. People say the most ridiculous things about Clinton. I encountered a Trump supporter yesterday who was laying into her for having acted for a child molester when she was a lawyer. So what? I was trying to get it into his thick skull that even scumbags are entitled to legal representation and that if he didn't like the plea bargain he should blame the prosecution, and if he didn't like the questioning, then he should blame the judge for allowing it, because it's a lawyer's job to present their client's case in the best way, and their own opinion of whether their client is lying (provided the client hasn't confessed to them, of course) is irrelevant.

    The Trump Foundation has ongoing trouble in the state of New York, where it has been receiving donations as a charity without having charity status and presumably without having paid tax. Will it be able to come up with the requested documents?

    An excellent post.

    (I don't think this was on the list of things that should be banned on PB. ;) )

    Both candidates are underwhelming and have issues that could torpedo their election. Either could still win.

    Sadly.
    Is there a ban list?
    There was a joking (I hope!) conversation about terms we disliked on yesterday afternoon's thread.

    It was virtual signalling taking the fight to the Tories. It made me ask: "You alright Hun?", and in response came: "Colour me red: Brexit means Brexit"
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    DavidL said:

    @davidaxelrod: In the modern era, no POTUS candidate has overcome an 11 point deficit, or anything close to it, 30 days before an election.

    Mind you there probably has not been a leading candidate as flawed and vulnerable as HRC. It is still not completely impossible that something blows up.
    That's the fear isn't it? We're only one Hillary collapse away from President Trump
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,096
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it. I don't need to consult Google for an explanation.

    What insight have you shown?

    A hint: posting links and twitter effluent is not insight.
    Since your illness - you've done little to interact with me that isn't rude. Don't like me, fine - scroll by.
    Rubbish. And you might like to consider your own position wrt that as well.

    Laving that aside: what insight have you shown?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,445

    @davidaxelrod: In the modern era, no POTUS candidate has overcome an 11 point deficit, or anything close to it, 30 days before an election.

    The trouble is this is not a 'normal' year by any stretch and so historicals are a problem.

    Although personally I think it is over and Trump has lost. He has insulted every demographic except his core and there aren't enough of them anyway (even if they vote which they won't - indeed, aren't judging by some late registration figures posted on PB yesterday).
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it.

    Plato, the trouble is that you come over as biased in favour of right wing issues generally and Trump in particular. I'm sorry if I have misjudged you.
    I'm all in favour of facts, but they're a bit thin on the ground on Fox News chat shows.
    I reflect an opinion that's in very short supply on here. If most posters just go URGH and dismiss - we learn nothing at all.
    When you post a fake quote along with your comment of "Explosive" or "This is dynamite" what opinion are you expressing?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it. I don't need to consult Google for an explanation.

    It's not being replicated. Leave won because it was a loose coalition of working class voters and those who wanted out of the political EU, the split was probably about 35/17. In the US Trump has the support of the former type of voters but not the latter. In a two way race he can't win with that kind of ceiling.

    There are parallels between Brexit and the current election, but Trump has completely failed to engage the small state, fiscally responsible republicans all over the country who aren't moved by his style or his over the top nature. Leave had similar votes tied up before the referendum was even on the agenda. Much like many of us discussed here when we found the Turkey discussion quite depressing, the Leave campaign didn't care what someone like me thought because I was going to vote leave whatever happened and not on the basis of immigration.

    Just look on this board, you are now the last Trump supporter standing, when the remain/leave split was about 50/50. It's not like we all only watch the BBC and Sky either and get their biased view. Trump has said things that I find disgusting, you may call it "locker room behaviour". I go to the gym and I have a lot of male friends, none have ever spoken about their daughters in the manner of Trump, or just sexually assaulted any women and then bragged about it afterwards.

    Trump is a flawed character who should not have got this close to the White House. What he represents doesn't go away when he loses, in fact he's probably cleared the way for the next GOP candidate who can probably mobilise the same base but be less crazy and bring AAs and low income Hispanics on side.
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it.

    Plato, the trouble is that you come over as biased in favour of right wing issues generally and Trump in particular. I'm sorry if I have misjudged you.
    I'm all in favour of facts, but they're a bit thin on the ground on Fox News chat shows.
    I reflect an opinion that's in very short supply on here. If most posters just go URGH and dismiss - we learn nothing at all.
    I have a suspicion that Trump is picking up a good few Dem voters, even registered ones.

    If he is cutting across usual voting patterns then the pollsters have the same problem they did with Brexit.

    Whether it is enough to win is another matter.
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    malcolmg said:

    Dromedary said:

    malcolmg said:

    Brilliant
    That guy with the banner can talk. There's another word used to refer to the same body part that is crying out to be applied to someone like Trump who mocks some people's disabilities while boasting about being able to grab other people's genitals. It says a lot about the US that such a man is scoring above 40% in the polls.
    The man may be an arse but he is no worse than and ulimately would do less harm than Clinton. Far better a buffoon in the white house than the Clintons for sure.
    He'd likely leave the headbangers in the GOP to get on with it. Many of them have more of an attention span than him, and thus much more dangerous.

    Plus he'd nominate the headbanger's choice of judge to the supreme court.

    Think this is likely to result in more harm
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Toby Young
    Interesting that the more people are to be able to remember Britain in the 70s, the less likely they are to vote for Corbyn. https://t.co/nnYlMRl3dE

    :smiley:
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,445

    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it. I don't need to consult Google for an explanation.

    This election is not like Brexit. As has been pointed out repeatedly, WWC voters are not the swing voters in the states that matters. Trump is succeeding in making the very red states even more red, and losing the swing states.

    As for supposedly ignoring insights on Brexit, most people on here made a lot of money betting on Leave, including myself (despite being a firm Remain voter) because it was clear that the chance of a Leave vote was far higher than the betting markets were predicting. In contrast the US presidential markets seem appropriately priced right now. Trump has a chance, but it's an outside one.
    :+1:

    I am a Remainer who made money on Leave. It was madness for Cameron to call a referendum and for some of us, even though it hurt, we knew it. POTUS is so different. It's a nice fantasy that this is another Brexit where the little guy gets angry and aint gonna take it no more. But it's not the reality imho.
  • Options
    JonathanD said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Loving it - another thread of remain moaning.

    Passes the time.
    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    :innocent:
    2015/05/07: £1=$1.52
    2016/10/10: £1=$1.23

    :innocent
    A fall of 19%

    I raise you:

    08/09/1992: £1= $2.00

    01/03/1993: £1 = $1.43

    A fall of 29%.

    Followed by the longest boom the country has ever seen.

    We have seen it all before.
    .
    Yes, when we were in the single market and had barrier free trade with europe. I imagine all the immigration we had during that time also helped with gdp growth figures.
    Immigration would have had little effect on GDP in the 1990s when the economy was performing strongly - it only became a significant factor from 2004 onwards when the economy has done much worse.

    You might also consider how strongly the economy performed during the 1980s when net migration was often negative and sterling more than halved in value against the dollar between 1981 and 1985.

    I would have hoped that after 1992 we had seen the last of the sterling value fetishists.

    If you want to have a higher sterling exchange rate then:

    1) Create more wealth
    2) Live within your means
    3) Increase your savings ratio
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,681
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it.

    Plato, the trouble is that you come over as biased in favour of right wing issues generally and Trump in particular. I'm sorry if I have misjudged you.
    I'm all in favour of facts, but they're a bit thin on the ground on Fox News chat shows.
    I reflect an opinion that's in very short supply on here. If most posters just go URGH and dismiss - we learn nothing at all.
    But, you are obsessive about it. When I had my first guest article published a few weeks ago the thread beneath it was peppered with comments about Trump, by you, and you didn't make reference to what I wrote once - or engage with the debate amongst other posters - at all.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it. I don't need to consult Google for an explanation.

    This election is not like Brexit. As has been pointed out repeatedly, WWC voters are not the swing voters in the states that matters. Trump is succeeding in making the very red states even more red, and losing the swing states.

    As for supposedly ignoring insights on Brexit, most people on here made a lot of money betting on Leave, including myself (despite being a firm Remain voter) because it was clear that the chance of a Leave vote was far higher than the betting markets were predicting. In contrast the US presidential markets seem appropriately priced right now. Trump has a chance, but it's an outside one.
    :+1:

    I am a Remainer who made money on Leave. It was madness for Cameron to call a referendum and for some of us, even though it hurt, we knew it. POTUS is so different. It's a nice fantasy that this is another Brexit where the little guy gets angry and aint gonna take it no more. But it's not the reality imho.
    If Trump was a little bit less crazy, a little bit less racially insensitive and was a bit more committed to foreign allies he would have won. A candidate that can combine these characteristics will win in 2020.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Come on chaps, let not argue about who killed who. This is meant to be a happy website.
  • Options
    Can someone please explain this hatred of the privately educated ? It seems like envy by thickos

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/785748347692937216
  • Options
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Loving it - another thread of remain moaning.

    Passes the time.
    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    :innocent:
    2015/05/07: £1=$1.52
    2016/10/10: £1=$1.23

    :innocent
    2015/05/07 FTSE100 6125
    2016/10/10 FTSE100 7097

    :smile:
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Are the rumours true that the BoE wants to recall the pound because it is catching fire?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,096

    JonathanD said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Loving it - another thread of remain moaning.

    Passes the time.
    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    :innocent:
    2015/05/07: £1=$1.52
    2016/10/10: £1=$1.23

    :innocent
    A fall of 19%

    I raise you:

    08/09/1992: £1= $2.00

    01/03/1993: £1 = $1.43

    A fall of 29%.

    Followed by the longest boom the country has ever seen.

    We have seen it all before.
    .
    Yes, when we were in the single market and had barrier free trade with europe. I imagine all the immigration we had during that time also helped with gdp growth figures.
    Immigration would have had little effect on GDP in the 1990s when the economy was performing strongly - it only became a significant factor from 2004 onwards when the economy has done much worse.

    You might also consider how strongly the economy performed during the 1980s when net migration was often negative and sterling more than halved in value against the dollar between 1981 and 1985.

    I would have hoped that after 1992 we had seen the last of the sterling value fetishists.

    If you want to have a higher sterling exchange rate then:

    1) Create more wealth
    2) Live within your means
    3) Increase your savings ratio
    "Live within your means" is an interesting one. I remember back to the mid-1980s, when as a child I was lucky when I got a computer costing about £400. Some friends had to make do with lesser non-Acorn computers from the likes of Commodore or Atari. ;)

    Now, it seems like everyone has to have expensive smartphones (and the call tariffs), large TVs, game consoles, etc, etc. Whilst the price comparison doesn't take inflation into account, it does seem as if we're getting a lot more (ahem) tat being seen as essentials.

    Have wages really increased to cover these expenses, or is the majority of it going on debt?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it.

    Plato, the trouble is that you come over as biased in favour of right wing issues generally and Trump in particular. I'm sorry if I have misjudged you.
    I'm all in favour of facts, but they're a bit thin on the ground on Fox News chat shows.
    I reflect an opinion that's in very short supply on here. If most posters just go URGH and dismiss - we learn nothing at all.
    But, you are obsessive about it. When I had my first guest article published a few weeks ago the thread beneath it was peppered with comments about Trump, by you, and you didn't make reference to what I wrote once - or engage with the debate amongst other posters - at all.
    I do it because no one else is sharing the load. If I didn't post, there'd be nothing but tutting.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,997

    JonathanD said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Loving it - another thread of remain moaning.

    Passes the time.
    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    :innocent:
    2015/05/07: £1=$1.52
    2016/10/10: £1=$1.23

    :innocent
    A fall of 19%

    I raise you:

    08/09/1992: £1= $2.00

    01/03/1993: £1 = $1.43

    A fall of 29%.

    Followed by the longest boom the country has ever seen.

    We have seen it all before.
    .
    Yes, when we were in the single market and had barrier free trade with europe. I imagine all the immigration we had during that time also helped with gdp growth figures.
    Immigration would have had little effect on GDP in the 1990s when the economy was performing strongly - it only became a significant factor from 2004 onwards when the economy has done much worse.

    You might also consider how strongly the economy performed during the 1980s when net migration was often negative and sterling more than halved in value against the dollar between 1981 and 1985.

    I would have hoped that after 1992 we had seen the last of the sterling value fetishists.

    If you want to have a higher sterling exchange rate then:

    1) Create more wealth
    2) Live within your means
    3) Increase your savings ratio
    We have a big balance of payments deficit. That can be corrected either by a fall in Sterling; or, if the value of a currency were fixed, by a sharp reduction in consumption, and a rapid rise in savings, leading to high unemployment and big cuts in wages. The former seems preferable to me.
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it.

    Plato, the trouble is that you come over as biased in favour of right wing issues generally and Trump in particular. I'm sorry if I have misjudged you.
    I'm all in favour of facts, but they're a bit thin on the ground on Fox News chat shows.
    I reflect an opinion that's in very short supply on here. If most posters just go URGH and dismiss - we learn nothing at all.
    I have a suspicion that Trump is picking up a good few Dem

    Whether it is enough to win is another matter.

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it.

    Plato, the trouble is that you come over as biased in favour of right wing issues generally and Trump in particular. I'm sorry if I have misjudged you.
    I'm all in favour of facts, but they're a bit thin on the ground on Fox News chat shows.
    I reflect an opinion that's in very short supply on here. If most posters just go URGH and dismiss - we learn nothing at all.
    I have a suspicion that Trump is picking up a good few Dem voters, even registered ones.

    If he is cutting across usual voting patterns then the pollsters have the same problem they did with Brexit.

    Whether it is enough to win is another matter.
    Clinton is getting even more of the republicans core vote of college educated and suburban women though, the largest voting bloc in the US electorate. Trump doubling down on getting non-voting WWC to offset this massive loss is... Brave to say the least
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sometimes history throws up ideas that are better tested than forever stymied. Britain’s mastery of its own affairs, even at the cost of access to the European market and the political chambers that regulate it, is a big, legitimate idea that has stirred politics for 30 years. If it is not allowed to run its course, even after a national referendum in its favour, it will not disappear, it will intensify in the shadows and return in more fearsome form.

    A clean break from the EU would involve economic disruption and some permanent losers. Even if it does not, no conscientious person could be relaxed in finding out.

    It is impossible to know what will happen after a hard exit but almost as impossible to see an alternative to finding out.


    https://www.ft.com/content/34c6dc74-8ece-11e6-8df8-d3778b55a923

    An article almost specifically calibrated to piss off Brexiteers by suggesting they get on with it. On their own.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    JonathanD said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Loving it - another thread of remain moaning.

    Passes the time.
    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    :innocent:
    2015/05/07: £1=$1.52
    2016/10/10: £1=$1.23

    :innocent
    A fall of 19%

    I raise you:

    08/09/1992: £1= $2.00

    01/03/1993: £1 = $1.43

    A fall of 29%.

    Followed by the longest boom the country has ever seen.

    We have seen it all before.
    .
    Yes, when we were in the single market and had barrier free trade with europe. I imagine all the immigration we had during that time also helped with gdp growth figures.
    Immigration would have had little effect on GDP in the 1990s when the economy was performing strongly - it only became a significant factor from 2004 onwards when the economy has done much worse.

    You might also consider how strongly the economy performed during the 1980s when net migration was often negative and sterling more than halved in value against the dollar between 1981 and 1985.

    I would have hoped that after 1992 we had seen the last of the sterling value fetishists.

    If you want to have a higher sterling exchange rate then:

    1) Create more wealth
    2) Live within your means
    3) Increase your savings ratio
    "Live within your means" is an interesting one. I remember back to the mid-1980s, when as a child I was lucky when I got a computer costing about £400. Some friends had to make do with lesser non-Acorn computers from the likes of Commodore or Atari. ;)

    Now, it seems like everyone has to have expensive smartphones (and the call tariffs), large TVs, game consoles, etc, etc. Whilst the price comparison doesn't take inflation into account, it does seem as if we're getting a lot more (ahem) tat being seen as essentials.

    Have wages really increased to cover these expenses, or is the majority of it going on debt?
    https://youtu.be/Xe1a1wHxTyo
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,997
    MaxPB said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it. I don't need to consult Google for an explanation.

    This election is not like Brexit. As has been pointed out repeatedly, WWC voters are not the swing voters in the states that matters. Trump is succeeding in making the very red states even more red, and losing the swing states.

    As for supposedly ignoring insights on Brexit, most people on here made a lot of money betting on Leave, including myself (despite being a firm Remain voter) because it was clear that the chance of a Leave vote was far higher than the betting markets were predicting. In contrast the US presidential markets seem appropriately priced right now. Trump has a chance, but it's an outside one.
    :+1:

    I am a Remainer who made money on Leave. It was madness for Cameron to call a referendum and for some of us, even though it hurt, we knew it. POTUS is so different. It's a nice fantasy that this is another Brexit where the little guy gets angry and aint gonna take it no more. But it's not the reality imho.
    If Trump was a little bit less crazy, a little bit less racially insensitive and was a bit more committed to foreign allies he would have won. A candidate that can combine these characteristics will win in 2020.
    Not for the first time in recent years, an awful Republican candidate is throwing away a winnable election.
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    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I do find it genuinely fascinating that so many on a betting site don't value insight and prefer to sneer at it.

    We'd yards of it over Brexit - and it's being replicated over POTUS. Uncomfortable truths are handwaved away. I find this election absolutely riveting because I get the small town fly-over-state mindset. I don't agree with lots of it - but I understand it and the values dearly held.

    So, I'll continue for another 29 days to share what I've picked up in the small hours from the dozens of video clips and articles I've read. Some may find it interesting - others can skip by it.

    Plato, the trouble is that you come over as biased in favour of right wing issues generally and Trump in particular. I'm sorry if I have misjudged you.
    I'm all in favour of facts, but they're a bit thin on the ground on Fox News chat shows.
    I reflect an opinion that's in very short supply on here. If most posters just go URGH and dismiss - we learn nothing at all.
    Not so - and you are now guilty of doing exactly what you accuse others of doing. You have caught the Remain disease of believing that opposition to a cause or person (be it the EU or Trump) is based upon unreasoned gut instinct and media bias. It is exactly the reverse. In both cases the opposition is based on reasoned analysis of the situation reinforced by fresh examples and the complete inability of the cause (be it Trump or the EU) to control themselves and realise what damage they are doing to their prospects. We are learning all the time and are sensible enough to heed the lessons.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited October 2016
    I keep thinking ..from what I read on here that Trump is similar to Corbyn as being hopeless and bonkers,an impossible candidate who cannot win is supported by only those who are equally hopeless and the party loses humingously badly... this is the dress rehearsal to GE2020 or whenever it comes.
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