May could stop the anti Hammond briefings if she wanted to. Instead of clamping down on the rhetoric she's piling in. The referendum is over. She would be advised to prepare people for the trade offs and setbacks that will inevitably happen.
As ever it's the politics. She may not have much longer to wait until UKIP is proven dead. They almost got Woolfe over a few weeks back, which would have been helpful in that regard. He may still jump if the leadership is now lost to him.
Delaying any compromise until UKIP is finished is clearly in the interests of the Tory party and will make it easier to compromise on Brexit later. Plus, the talk of hard exit may shore up our negotiating position with the EU.
In the 3 top jobs of the Govt, plus PM, we have 3 Remainers. 1 Remainer, Rudd, has proposed a set of her own meddling immigration ideas. Another Remainer, Hammond, forecasts project fear type downsides ahead. On top of this is the Bank of England Governor who carries on forecasting doom and reduces the attractiveness of the pound through a rate cut and promise of more cuts.... All of these have added to the appearance of major problems and invited attacks.
May said at least as much as Rudd, Hammond and Carney are responding to real events - mostly quite sensibly. that so many 'Leavers' don't wish to see this is very telling. The £ crash this week was a response to talk of Hard Brexit.
No, it wasn't.
It was a response to hardening interest expectations for the Fed (upwards) and the BoE comments that they would move away from data to an entirely politically driven interest policy (downwards).
McCain and Rice desert Trump. "The latest to withdraw their support are former Republican presidential candidate John McCain and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Mr McCain said Mr Trump's comments "make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy", while Ms Rice said: "Enough! Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37599111
It's extraordinary they supported him on the first place. What he said about his daughter should have disqualified him from getting the support of any serious person.
You rejoined the Labour party - albeit as a Corbyn critic. the power of tribalism?
I joined to help get rid of him. It's not going well! If he is still there at the GE I will not be voting Labour. But I don't think he will be.
SO ..... who do you think will be, just from of a betting interest point of view - only one name please, I can't be playing the field!
I really have no idea, but if forced to predict with a gun at my head I'd go for Lisa Nandy.
Jon Ashworth. Not that I think him the best candidate, but I think that he has support in the right places, and now has a prominent front bench role.
Interesting how you seem to go for Leicester Labour MPs notwithstanding their evident unsuitability. Although you seem to avoid Vaz.
I do indeed, but Ashworth lacks Kendall's charm and wit.
He has significant union support, friends in NEC and party HQ (being parachuted into a safe seat for the Leicester South by-election), and now has joined the Corbyn front bench on health. This is a good area for getting known, keeping the unions on board and suits his attack dog style. It is an area which both wings of the party agree on, so not likely to force a resignation. He may well be the only acceptable frontbencher if Corbyn did stand down.
The anti Hammond briefing in the Telegraph is fairly brutal. For a government about a 100 days old it's astonishing. That said losing a Chancellor so soon is something May will do everything to avoid. And as a europhile I don't trust my own judgement on Brexit going tits up. I try not to bet in things I want to happen.
You want it to go tits up?
I can understand you saying you expect it to but not that you want it to.
I read his post to mean Brexit - I.e. The process - rather than the economy. No-one wants the economy to crash.
There is nevertheless an argument that a sharp early reaction to the prospect of hard Brexit - of the sort we almost saw on Thursday night - stands at least some chance of bringing the government to a more sensible position whilst there is still time, whereas a crash after the deed is done is the worst possible outcome.
It is of course possible that the Government are following a deliberate strategy of talking up Hard Brexit to give the public an early sight of what may happen to the economy if the talk becomes reality. Calculating that it makes it much easier to row back to a compromise position once the negotiations actually get underway. Short term pain (with some gain for exporters) for long term gain.
It is an eternal problem in EU negotiations that the Government is bullied by the press in advance to reveal their "red lines" to the public. Which is probably part of the reason why they rarely come away with a deal that meets media/public approval. Maybe they've learned their lesson and they're just doing a very good job of obscuring what the real objectives of the Government are.
I don't agree with Hodges but this little anecdote at the end of the article was brilliant :
"A Tory delegate got a shock after attempting to grab a passing waitress in the conference Hyatt Hotel on Monday to order breakfast. ‘I’d be happy to,’ she replied, ‘but I’m afraid I’m not actually a waitress. I’m the Home Secretary.’ Amber Rudd – service with a smile."
An anecdote which makes you wonder who was Hodges' source for his main story about the political genius of Amber Rudd.
All the remoaners here fearing a hard exit would do well to analyse Barkworths forensic analysis of what Mrs May did or didn't actually say in her incredibly carefully worded speech on Europe. Soft Brexiters despair ye not.
It may have been me who originated this tip on Hammond, but it is not worth more than a playful flutter:
1) Hammond is a loyalist not a rebel, and is as close to May as anyone. She is not noted for her sociability, and cannot afford to lose friends. They share the reluctant Remainer turned Leaver turncoat status too.
2) Cabinet losses are much more prone to the black swan than political differences. Plebgate or some sort of sleazy sexual behaviour like making lewd comments on mike.
3) Rudd or Greening are more likely after their gaffes last week.
4) Hammond is probably right and Brexit will be an economic rollercoaster. It always looks foolish to sack someone for being correct.
This Rudd "gaffe"?
Rudd's gaffe which led to Roger Helmer saying
A Ukip MEP has said Theresa May’s immigration policies are ‘a step too far’.
That’s right – the current government is too extreme for Ukip.
Let’s all just let that sink in.
Helmer said that May and Home Secretary Amber Rudd’s proposal of making firms provide lists of their foreign workers was ‘far beyond’ what Ukip would have done.
He also attacked their ban on foreign academics advising on Brexit as ‘astonishing’.
I don't agree with Hodges but this little anecdote at the end of the article was brilliant :
"A Tory delegate got a shock after attempting to grab a passing waitress in the conference Hyatt Hotel on Monday to order breakfast. ‘I’d be happy to,’ she replied, ‘but I’m afraid I’m not actually a waitress. I’m the Home Secretary.’ Amber Rudd – service with a smile."
Careful... In these post-Trump days, "grab a waitress" might be misinterpreted!
May could stop the anti Hammond briefings if she wanted to. Instead of clamping down on the rhetoric she's piling in. The referendum is over. She would be advised to prepare people for the trade offs and setbacks that will inevitably happen.
As ever it's the politics. She may not have much longer to wait until UKIP is proven dead. They almost got Woolfe over a few weeks back, which would have been helpful in that regard. He may still jump if the leadership is now lost to him.
Delaying any compromise until UKIP is finished is clearly in the interests of the Tory party and will make it easier to compromise on Brexit later. Plus, the talk of hard exit may shore up our negotiating position with the EU.
That sounds plausible. My doubts are on your last sentence. It is almost certain to further damage our position with the EU. The politics, the diplomacy and economic sentiment aren't self contained spheres. The politics infects the diplomacy which damages economic sentiment, which in turn will feedback into the politics
In the 3 top jobs of the Govt, plus PM, we have 3 Remainers. 1 Remainer, Rudd, has proposed a set of her own meddling immigration ideas. Another Remainer, Hammond, forecasts project fear type downsides ahead. On top of this is the Bank of England Governor who carries on forecasting doom and reduces the attractiveness of the pound through a rate cut and promise of more cuts.... All of these have added to the appearance of major problems and invited attacks.
May said at least as much as Rudd, Hammond and Carney are responding to real events - mostly quite sensibly. that so many 'Leavers' don't wish to see this is very telling. The £ crash this week was a response to talk of Hard Brexit.
No, it wasn't.
It was a response to hardening interest expectations for the Fed (upwards) and the BoE comments that they would move away from data to an entirely politically driven interest policy (downwards).
The US jobs data reported on CNBC and Bloomberg played down talks of interest rate rises - the first drop in the £ was a direct response to May's speech.
Mr. Eagles, Rudd's rhetoric was well over the top.
However, it's my understanding the LSE story has been denied by the Government and there's no quote or documentation to support it. Could be wrong, but that's what I gather.
It may have been me who originated this tip on Hammond, but it is not worth more than a playful flutter:
1) Hammond is a loyalist not a rebel, and is as close to May as anyone. She is not noted for her sociability, and cannot afford to lose friends. They share the reluctant Remainer turned Leaver turncoat status too.
2) Cabinet losses are much more prone to the black swan than political differences. Plebgate or some sort of sleazy sexual behaviour like making lewd comments on mike.
3) Rudd or Greening are more likely after their gaffes last week.
4) Hammond is probably right and Brexit will be an economic rollercoaster. It always looks foolish to sack someone for being correct.
This Rudd "gaffe"?
Rudd's gaffe which led to Roger Helmer saying
A Ukip MEP has said Theresa May’s immigration policies are ‘a step too far’.
That’s right – the current government is too extreme for Ukip.
Let’s all just let that sink in.
Helmer said that May and Home Secretary Amber Rudd’s proposal of making firms provide lists of their foreign workers was ‘far beyond’ what Ukip would have done.
He also attacked their ban on foreign academics advising on Brexit as ‘astonishing’.
It may have been me who originated this tip on Hammond, but it is not worth more than a playful flutter:
1) Hammond is a loyalist not a rebel, and is as close to May as anyone. She is not noted for her sociability, and cannot afford to lose friends. They share the reluctant Remainer turned Leaver turncoat status too.
2) Cabinet losses are much more prone to the black swan than political differences. Plebgate or some sort of sleazy sexual behaviour like making lewd comments on mike.
3) Rudd or Greening are more likely after their gaffes last week.
4) Hammond is probably right and Brexit will be an economic rollercoaster. It always looks foolish to sack someone for being correct.
This Rudd "gaffe"?
Rudd's gaffe which led to Roger Helmer saying
A Ukip MEP has said Theresa May’s immigration policies are ‘a step too far’.
That’s right – the current government is too extreme for Ukip.
Let’s all just let that sink in.
Helmer said that May and Home Secretary Amber Rudd’s proposal of making firms provide lists of their foreign workers was ‘far beyond’ what Ukip would have done.
He also attacked their ban on foreign academics advising on Brexit as ‘astonishing’.
Let's wait on some polling to see if it is regarded by the voters as a "gaffe".... And it is a hardly a surprise that some in UKIP are so far up the rectum of the corporate world that they will parrot any objections they hear from that source. No doubt Helmer would be happy to live in a world where big business can do pretty much as they damn well like.
All the Trump stuff should do wonders for ratings figures for tonight's debate. Interesting choice for Hillary - does she go for the kill, or does she go positive and leave him dangling?
Kids gloves from Hilary. Going for the kill would be a mistake.
The Reps are tearing themselves apart at the moment. Nedr interrupt an opponent and all that.
I don't think hard Brexit can yet be described as the centre ground. It just feels that way because Labour are so abjectly useless right now. Rawnsley in the Observer makes essentially the same point but starting from the other end of the argument.
There is nevertheless a clear danger that hard Brexit is what we get. But when a government goes so resolutely against their business community it rarely if ever ends well.
The public want immigration brought under control.
The EU and it's attachment to daft, impractical european dogma will determine whether it is hard or soft Brexit - not our government.
It is fairly clear that we would opt for free trade without free movement, but if this sense is beyond them, then we move on in a different way whilst unshackling ourselves from these ideologically obsessed euro-loons.
It may have been me who originated this tip on Hammond, but it is not worth more than a playful flutter:
1) Hammond is a loyalist not a rebel, and is as close to May as anyone. She is not noted for her sociability, and cannot afford to lose friends. They share the reluctant Remainer turned Leaver turncoat status too.
2) Cabinet losses are much more prone to the black swan than political differences. Plebgate or some sort of sleazy sexual behaviour like making lewd comments on mike.
3) Rudd or Greening are more likely after their gaffes last week.
4) Hammond is probably right and Brexit will be an economic rollercoaster. It always looks foolish to sack someone for being correct.
This Rudd "gaffe"?
Rudd's gaffe which led to Roger Helmer saying
A Ukip MEP has said Theresa May’s immigration policies are ‘a step too far’.
That’s right – the current government is too extreme for Ukip.
Let’s all just let that sink in.
Helmer said that May and Home Secretary Amber Rudd’s proposal of making firms provide lists of their foreign workers was ‘far beyond’ what Ukip would have done.
He also attacked their ban on foreign academics advising on Brexit as ‘astonishing’.
Suggest you read Hodges article. The Rivers of Rudd speech was her mistresses voice and was not a gaffe.
Did like this bit....
"A Tory delegate got a shock after attempting to grab a passing waitress in the conference Hyatt Hotel on Monday to order breakfast. ‘I’d be happy to,’ she replied, ‘but I’m afraid I’m not actually a waitress. I’m the Home Secretary.’ Amber Rudd – service with a smile"
All the Trump stuff should do wonders for ratings figures for tonight's debate. Interesting choice for Hillary - does she go for the kill, or does she go positive and leave him dangling?
Kids gloves from Hilary. Going for the kill would be a mistake.
The Reps are tearing themselves apart at the moment. Nedr interrupt an opponent and all that.
Is Farage still advising Trump?
Yes, and he came out with a brilliant defence of Trump yesterday.
Nigel Farage: Trump 'Not Running to Be Pope--He's Running For President'
In the 3 top jobs of the Govt, plus PM, we have 3 Remainers. 1 Remainer, Rudd, has proposed a set of her own meddling immigration ideas. Another Remainer, Hammond, forecasts project fear type downsides ahead. On top of this is the Bank of England Governor who carries on forecasting doom and reduces the attractiveness of the pound through a rate cut and promise of more cuts.... All of these have added to the appearance of major problems and invited attacks.
May said at least as much as Rudd, Hammond and Carney are responding to real events - mostly quite sensibly. that so many 'Leavers' don't wish to see this is very telling. The £ crash this week was a response to talk of Hard Brexit.
More a response to Hammond's doom and Carney's rate policy.
Yes, Labour IS now the nasty party: It grieves him to admit it, but the former Home Secretary DAVID BLUNKETT has to agree with the PM's damning indictment of his movement
All the remoaners here fearing a hard exit would do well to analyse Barkworths [sic] forensic analysis of what Mrs May did or didn't actually say in her incredibly carefully worded speech on Europe. Soft Brexiters despair ye not.
(Sorry, bad night, did not sleep well: I don't live on PB, honest!)
Oddly enuf, I did read it before you pointed it ou, but thank you for the link regardless.
Booker (not Barkworth) is perfectly aware of the implications of Hard Brexit and is scared by them (see his previous posts). He is interpreting May's speech in the best possible way to alleviate his own fears. Whilst I hope he is correct (and if enuf people read him GBP may stabilise, so yay!), a hard Brexit is still possible[nb 1] and despite Booker's concerns it does seem to be the way things are going.
[nb 1] Fraser Nelson's and Richard_Tyndall's separate excoriations of Remainers is subtle confirmation of this - why else would they be so keen to blame Remainers so harshly?
I don't think hard Brexit can yet be described as the centre ground. It just feels that way because Labour are so abjectly useless right now. Rawnsley in the Observer makes essentially the same point but starting from the other end of the argument.
There is nevertheless a clear danger that hard Brexit is what we get. But when a government goes so resolutely against their business community it rarely if ever ends well.
The public want immigration brought under control.
The EU and it's attachment to daft, impractical european dogma will determine whether it is hard or soft Brexit - not our government.
It is fairly clear that we would opt for free trade without free movement, but if this sense is beyond them, then we move on in a different way whilst unshackling ourselves from these ideologically obsessed euro-loons.
It may have been me who originated this tip on Hammond, but it is not worth more than a playful flutter:
1) Hammond is a loyalist not a rebel, and is as close to May as anyone. She is not noted for her sociability, and cannot afford to lose friends. They share the reluctant Remainer turned Leaver turncoat status too.
2) Cabinet losses are much more prone to the black swan than political differences. Plebgate or some sort of sleazy sexual behaviour like making lewd comments on mike.
3) Rudd or Greening are more likely after their gaffes last week.
4) Hammond is probably right and Brexit will be an economic rollercoaster. It always looks foolish to sack someone for being correct.
This Rudd "gaffe"?
Rudd's gaffe which led to Roger Helmer saying
A Ukip MEP has said Theresa May’s immigration policies are ‘a step too far’.
That’s right – the current government is too extreme for Ukip.
Let’s all just let that sink in.
Helmer said that May and Home Secretary Amber Rudd’s proposal of making firms provide lists of their foreign workers was ‘far beyond’ what Ukip would have done.
He also attacked their ban on foreign academics advising on Brexit as ‘astonishing’.
Mr. Eagles, the Pope's an oaf too. A man who responds to the Charlie Hebdo attack ['provoked' by blasphemy] with a line about punching someone if that person insults his mother is a buffoon at best.
In the 3 top jobs of the Govt, plus PM, we have 3 Remainers. 1 Remainer, Rudd, has proposed a set of her own meddling immigration ideas. Another Remainer, Hammond, forecasts project fear type downsides ahead. On top of this is the Bank of England Governor who carries on forecasting doom and reduces the attractiveness of the pound through a rate cut and promise of more cuts.... All of these have added to the appearance of major problems and invited attacks.
May said at least as much as Rudd, Hammond and Carney are responding to real events - mostly quite sensibly. that so many 'Leavers' don't wish to see this is very telling. The £ crash this week was a response to talk of Hard Brexit.
No, it wasn't.
It was a response to hardening interest expectations for the Fed (upwards) and the BoE comments that they would move away from data to an entirely politically driven interest policy (downwards).
So then how long before sterling recovers v the euro... my g and is costing me.more every day....
All the remoaners here fearing a hard exit would do well to analyse Barkworths [sic] forensic analysis of what Mrs May did or didn't actually say in her incredibly carefully worded speech on Europe. Soft Brexiters despair ye not.
(Sorry, bad night, did not sleep well: I don't live on PB, honest!)
Oddly enuf, I did read it before you pointed it ou, but thank you for the link regardless.
Booker (not Barkworth) is perfectly aware of the implications of Hard Brexit and is scared by them (see his previous posts). He is interpreting May's speech in the best possible way to alleviate his own fears. Whilst I hope he is correct (and if enuf people read him GBP may stabilise, so yay!), a hard Brexit is still possible[nb 1] and despite Booker's concerns it does seem to be the way things are going.
[nb 1] Fraser Nelson's and Richard_Tyndall's separate excoriations of Remainers is subtle confirmation of this - why else would they be so keen to blame Remainers so harshly?
You are aware that Booker has long been rechristened Barkworth by Private Eye?
All the Trump stuff should do wonders for ratings figures for tonight's debate. Interesting choice for Hillary - does she go for the kill, or does she go positive and leave him dangling?
Kids gloves from Hilary. Going for the kill would be a mistake.
The Reps are tearing themselves apart at the moment. Nedr interrupt an opponent and all that.
Is Farage still advising Trump?
Yes, and he came out with a brilliant defence of Trump yesterday.
Nigel Farage: Trump 'Not Running to Be Pope--He's Running For President'
If he's been running for pope it would have been "grab their balls".
In the 3 top jobs of the Govt, plus PM, we have 3 Remainers. 1 Remainer, Rudd, has proposed a set of her own meddling immigration ideas. Another Remainer, Hammond, forecasts project fear type downsides ahead. On top of this is the Bank of England Governor who carries on forecasting doom and reduces the attractiveness of the pound through a rate cut and promise of more cuts.... All of these have added to the appearance of major problems and invited attacks.
May said at least as much as Rudd, Hammond and Carney are responding to real events - mostly quite sensibly. that so many 'Leavers' don't wish to see this is very telling. The £ crash this week was a response to talk of Hard Brexit.
No, it wasn't.
It was a response to hardening interest expectations for the Fed (upwards) and the BoE comments that they would move away from data to an entirely politically driven interest policy (downwards).
So then how long before sterling recovers v the euro... my g and is costing me.more every day....
Carney lowering our interest rates despite the US raising theirs a while back didnt exactly help in this regard.
Christ this place is getting to be a bore. Endless banging on about the fictional "hard" and "soft" BrExit when there is patently no such thing, the only BrExit is the one that we are able to negotiate with the EU, which is almost certainly going to be fairly hard, because their choice is going to be "four freedoms" or "f*ck off", and any politician opting for four freedoms is committing electoral suicide.
Yes, we might get a few tidbits around free trade in agriculture and maybe machinery, but that will be about it. EEA/EFTA isn't going to happen, and as I have said many times before is never going to happen, because it's political suicide, it was political suicide before the referendum, and its doubly so now. So lets just stop all this hard, harder, hardest cr@p it might be good for point scoring, but its vapid bilge.
..More a response to Hammond's doom and Carney's rate policy...
Although you may be right about Carney's rate policy (tho not in the way you'd like), I can't help thinking the international markets are too large to be moved by one man gobbing off.
Here's a thing. It might just be that the international markets have decided that Brexit is bad for the UK. You may disagree. You may even be right (altho' I don't). But that is their stance, Blaming remainers or using slurs ("remoaners") will not change their minds.
I don't think hard Brexit can yet be described as the centre ground. It just feels that way because Labour are so abjectly useless right now. Rawnsley in the Observer makes essentially the same point but starting from the other end of the argument.
There is nevertheless a clear danger that hard Brexit is what we get. But when a government goes so resolutely against their business community it rarely if ever ends well.
The public want immigration brought under control.
The EU and it's attachment to daft, impractical european dogma will determine whether it is hard or soft Brexit - not our government.
It is fairly clear that we would opt for free trade without free movement, but if this sense is beyond them, then we move on in a different way whilst unshackling ourselves from these ideologically obsessed euro-loons.
The single market? Where is the uniform minimum wage? Uniform tax rates? Cars and roads that all work on the same side? A common form of electrical wiring/current? A single language? A single set of property and planning laws.
It's a myth. It doesn't really exist.
Would they dare acknowledge it, or the stupidity of free movement rules that floods one nation while asset stripping and hollowing out another?
Christ this place is getting to be a bore. Endless banging on about the fictional "hard" and "soft" BrExit when there is patently no such thing, the only BrExit is the one that we are able to negotiate with the EU, which is almost certainly going to be fairly hard, because their choice is going to be "four freedoms" or "f*ck off", and any politician opting for four freedoms is committing electoral suicide.
Yes, we might get a few tidbits around free trade in agriculture and maybe machinery, but that will be about it. EEA/EFTA isn't going to happen, and as I have said many times before is never going to happen, because it's political suicide, it was political suicide before the referendum, and its doubly so now. So lets just stop all this hard, harder, hardest cr@p it might be good for point scoring, but its vapid bilge.
I agree. Hard Brexit is nailed on. The Bitter Enders will not be willing to accept anything less.
All the remoaners here fearing a hard exit would do well to analyse Barkworths [sic] forensic analysis of what Mrs May did or didn't actually say in her incredibly carefully worded speech on Europe. Soft Brexiters despair ye not.
(Sorry, bad night, did not sleep well: I don't live on PB, honest!)
Oddly enuf, I did read it before you pointed it ou, but thank you for the link regardless.
Booker (not Barkworth) is perfectly aware of the implications of Hard Brexit and is scared by them (see his previous posts). He is interpreting May's speech in the best possible way to alleviate his own fears. Whilst I hope he is correct (and if enuf people read him GBP may stabilise, so yay!), a hard Brexit is still possible[nb 1] and despite Booker's concerns it does seem to be the way things are going.
[nb 1] Fraser Nelson's and Richard_Tyndall's separate excoriations of Remainers is subtle confirmation of this - why else would they be so keen to blame Remainers so harshly?
You are aware that Booker has long been rechristened Barkworth by Private Eye?
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
It's the head-in-the-sand approach, if Trump doesnt win this time the resentment of the WWC and the dispossessed will simmer, Hillary is absolutely not the right president to hold out the olive branch to those parts of her country. In 2020 there will be a new populist republican candidate, only someone more plausible and less of a fscking idiot, and he will win with a landslide, and then do pretty much everything Trump is talking about doing and probably more. Trump would be an ineffectual lame dog populist president, the next guy wont be.
Its the same bullsh*t as the remain campaign believing that the EU is going to be a 400 year reich, rather than the more realistic view that it is either going to federalise or implode with in the next decade or so, both of which would be worse for us than the hardest BrExit now.
Christ this place is getting to be a bore. Endless banging on about the fictional "hard" and "soft" BrExit when there is patently no such thing, the only BrExit is the one that we are able to negotiate with the EU, which is almost certainly going to be fairly hard, because their choice is going to be "four freedoms" or "f*ck off", and any politician opting for four freedoms is committing electoral suicide.
Yes, we might get a few tidbits around free trade in agriculture and maybe machinery, but that will be about it. EEA/EFTA isn't going to happen, and as I have said many times before is never going to happen, because it's political suicide, it was political suicide before the referendum, and its doubly so now. So lets just stop all this hard, harder, hardest cr@p it might be good for point scoring, but its vapid bilge.
Christ this place is getting to be a bore. Endless banging on about the fictional "hard" and "soft" BrExit when there is patently no such thing, the only BrExit is the one that we are able to negotiate with the EU, which is almost certainly going to be fairly hard, because their choice is going to be "four freedoms" or "f*ck off", and any politician opting for four freedoms is committing electoral suicide.
Yes, we might get a few tidbits around free trade in agriculture and maybe machinery, but that will be about it. EEA/EFTA isn't going to happen, and as I have said many times before is never going to happen, because it's political suicide, it was political suicide before the referendum, and its doubly so now. So lets just stop all this hard, harder, hardest cr@p it might be good for point scoring, but its vapid bilge.
I agree. Hard Brexit is nailed on. The Bitter Enders will not be willing to accept anything less.
Nothing to do with bitter enders, its the electoral reality that 76% of the population want immigration reduced, and 52% want it reduced by a lot, and that figure is about 5-6% higher than a decade ago. Immigration is also the number one public concern. No politician that wants to be (re)elected is going to swim against that tide.
Christ this place is getting to be a bore. Endless banging on about the fictional "hard" and "soft" BrExit when there is patently no such thing, the only BrExit is the one that we are able to negotiate with the EU, which is almost certainly going to be fairly hard, because their choice is going to be "four freedoms" or "f*ck off", and any politician opting for four freedoms is committing electoral suicide.
Yes, we might get a few tidbits around free trade in agriculture and maybe machinery, but that will be about it. EEA/EFTA isn't going to happen, and as I have said many times before is never going to happen, because it's political suicide, it was political suicide before the referendum, and its doubly so now. So lets just stop all this hard, harder, hardest cr@p it might be good for point scoring, but its vapid bilge.
I agree. Hard Brexit is nailed on. The Bitter Enders will not be willing to accept anything less.
Nothing to do with bitter enders, its the electoral reality that 76% of the population want immigration reduced, and 52% want it reduced by a lot, and that figure is about 5-6% higher than a decade ago. Immigration is also the number one public concern. No politician that wants to be (re)elected is going to swim against that tide.
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
Quite agree. It's fundamentally important that the views are aired in full and put to the vote. Hopefully the American people will see sense but I really don't envy their position.
On the other hand the alternative policies and standing ( or stumbling) HRC is not sufficiently appealing to GOTV but perhaps will be just enough to do the job.
The EU's 'punishment' strategy is suicide. How on earth do they think the politics of fear will play out with the countries inside? countries that are democracies and have their own misgivings about the whole project?
Christ this place is getting to be a bore. Endless banging on about the fictional "hard" and "soft" BrExit when there is patently no such thing, the only BrExit is the one that we are able to negotiate with the EU, which is almost certainly going to be fairly hard, because their choice is going to be "four freedoms" or "f*ck off", and any politician opting for four freedoms is committing electoral suicide.
Yes, we might get a few tidbits around free trade in agriculture and maybe machinery, but that will be about it. EEA/EFTA isn't going to happen, and as I have said many times before is never going to happen, because it's political suicide, it was political suicide before the referendum, and its doubly so now. So lets just stop all this hard, harder, hardest cr@p it might be good for point scoring, but its vapid bilge.
I agree. Hard Brexit is nailed on. The Bitter Enders will not be willing to accept anything less.
You're really not helping your case with "Bitter Enders"....
There is a political imperative in this country, one we have not had for many a long year. That is, 52% of the population have made clear their desire to leave the EU. There was no "Bitter Ender" option on the Referendum ballot paper. There was a "just get us out - you work out how" option - the one that has been handed to May.
No Prime Minister has been handed a 52% manifesto win since JackW was a nipper. So she will deliver what is practical. That will depend on how much those in Brussels want to be an arse. If they want to be an arse, the British people will accept that the EU wanted to be an arse, and sign off on what she needs to do to deliver Brexit. It's that simple.
The EU's 'punishment' strategy is suicide. How on earth do they think the politics of fear will play out with the countries inside? countries that are democracies and have their own misgivings about the whole project?
I do wonder whether Brexit will be a trend-setter along the lines of privatisation. At first the world thought "Are you mad - selling off the family silver???" - only to then take it up themselves with an enthusiasm that would have made Thatcher blush....
It's an amazing coincidence it started immediately after May's speech then.
So to summarise.
* The drop in the pound between Autumn 2015 (when the renegotations started) and the days before polling was a coincidence. * The rise in the pound on polling day when the markets thought an IN vote was baked in was a coincidence. * The 15cent fall in the value of the pound the day after when LEAVE won was a coincidence * The 5-ishcent fall last week after May gave her speech was a coincidence.
I am sympathetic to interest rates and divergent central bank activities being confounding factors. But looking at the big picture, if you were modelling this, you'd be going "Hmm. Brexit kills GBP".
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
It's the head-in-the-sand approach, if Trump doesnt win this time the resentment of the WWC and the dispossessed will simmer, Hillary is absolutely not the right president to hold out the olive branch to those parts of her country. In 2020 there will be a new populist republican candidate, only someone more plausible and less of a fscking idiot, and he will win with a landslide, and then do pretty much everything Trump is talking about doing and probably more. Trump would be an ineffectual lame dog populist president, the next guy wont be.
Its the same bullsh*t as the remain campaign believing that the EU is going to be a 400 year reich, rather than the more realistic view that it is either going to federalise or implode with in the next decade or so, both of which would be worse for us than the hardest BrExit now.
so, Let in a crazy, rapey racist because the next guy must be worse?
Trump will prob still be the nominee in Nov and will probably be crushed. The GOP will change their nomination process to stop someone like him being nominee again.
The 'deplorables' are still just a small percentage of the voting public.
The EU's 'punishment' strategy is suicide. How on earth do they think the politics of fear will play out with the countries inside? countries that are democracies and have their own misgivings about the whole project?
We do however misunderstand this perspective - despite misgivings about the nature of the EU, within most of the 27 (Denmark excepted) there is a settled majority that supports membership and the broad EU vision. In the UK people jump quickly from unhappiness with the EU to wanting to leave; in the rest of Europe that is much less common.
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
I was just about to say the same thing - the GOP are actively sabotaging the ground war, the media are almost 99% against - RNC bigwigs are using every excuse to run in the other direction.
My timeline is rammed with angry Trumpers - it's getting most heated. The GOP seems to be thinking that they'd rather kill off their own candidate than let him continue for another 30ish days.
he 'deplorables' are still just a small percentage of the voting public.
I'm sure that is what you wish to believe. But the reason America's elite don;t want Trump to run is it will emerge the 'deplorables' are a much larger percentage than any of them want to admit.
It's an amazing coincidence it started immediately after May's speech then.
So to summarise.
* The drop in the pound between Autumn 2015 (when the renegotations started) and the days before polling was a coincidence. * The rise in the pound on polling day when the markets thought an IN vote was baked in was a coincidence. * The 15cent fall in the value of the pound the day after when LEAVE won was a coincidence * The 5-ishcent fall last week after May gave her speech was a coincidence.
I am sympathetic to interest rates and divergent central bank activities being confounding factors. But looking at the big picture, if you were modelling this, you'd be going "Hmm. Brexit kills GBP".
I learned to stop worrying about the value of Sterling when we crashed out of the ERM.
I am sympathetic to interest rates and divergent central bank activities being confounding factors. But looking at the big picture, if you were modelling this, you'd be going "Hmm. Brexit kills GBP".
I know remainers love talking about GDP because it suits their narrative, but they seem to be very quiet about the FTSE250, currently about 10% up on BrExit, so British business doing well, even those that are not multinationals benefiting from earning in USD.
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
I was just about to say the same thing - the GOP are actively sabotaging the ground war, the media are almost 99% against - RNC bigwigs are using every excuse to run in the other direction.
My timeline is rammed with angry Trumpers - it's getting most heated. The GOP seems to be thinking that they'd rather kill off their own candidate than let him continue for another 30ish days.
And Trump is going CAPS LOCK on sticking with it.
you are acting like its because of Trumps politics, whereas its his disgusting comments about sexually assaulting women turning off voters (as well as his other disgusting comments over the months). If the GOP thought he was winning, they would stick with him
The EU's 'punishment' strategy is suicide. How on earth do they think the politics of fear will play out with the countries inside? countries that are democracies and have their own misgivings about the whole project?
We do however misunderstand this perspective - despite misgivings about the nature of the EU, within most of the 27 (Denmark excepted) there is a settled majority that supports membership and the broad EU vision. In the UK people jump quickly from unhappiness with the EU to wanting to leave; in the rest of Europe that is much less common.
Five Star winning on the platform of returning to the Lira might rock the boat a little...
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
I was just about to say the same thing - the GOP are actively sabotaging the ground war, the media are almost 99% against - RNC bigwigs are using every excuse to run in the other direction.
My timeline is rammed with angry Trumpers - it's getting most heated. The GOP seems to be thinking that they'd rather kill off their own candidate than let him continue for another 30ish days.
And Trump is going CAPS LOCK on sticking with it.
Someone who's willing to describe his own daughter as "a piece of ass" is plainly unsuitable to be a Presidential nominee.
I am sympathetic to interest rates and divergent central bank activities being confounding factors. But looking at the big picture, if you were modelling this, you'd be going "Hmm. Brexit kills GBP".
I know remainers love talking about GDP because it suits their narrative, but they seem to be very quiet about the FTSE250, currently about 10% up on BrExit, so British business doing well, even those that are not multinationals benefiting from earning in USD.
FTSE350 is up considerably as well.
so is the FTSE All Shares Index.
DOOOM! DOOM! I say!
An interesting leap from the performance of a market index to the supposed performance of the economy, there! Through time the correlation between the two has been weak.
We hear so much about potential resignations from the Conservative government and what a political disaster their education and European policies are yet:
' Baroness Nicholson of Winterbourne has returned to the Conservative Party 21 years after she defected to the Liberal Democrats.
The peer said she would rejoin the party next week "with tremendous pleasure".
She said her energies were "dedicated to fighting for our new PM and her policies".
Listing her reasons for rejoining the Tories, she highlighted Theresa May's education speech on Friday as evidence that the prime minister "leads a party with a real commitment to delivering for the next generation and building a country that works for everyone". '
' A peer has been tempted to switch to the Conservative Party after resigning the Liberal Democrat whip last month.
Zahida Manzoor quit over the Liberal Democrats' policies on Europe and praised what she said was Prime Minister Theresa May's clear leadership on Brexit. '
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
It's the head-in-the-sand approach, if Trump doesnt win this time the resentment of the WWC and the dispossessed will simmer, Hillary is absolutely not the right president to hold out the olive branch to those parts of her country. In 2020 there will be a new populist republican candidate, only someone more plausible and less of a fscking idiot, and he will win with a landslide, and then do pretty much everything Trump is talking about doing and probably more. Trump would be an ineffectual lame dog populist president, the next guy wont be.
Its the same bullsh*t as the remain campaign believing that the EU is going to be a 400 year reich, rather than the more realistic view that it is either going to federalise or implode with in the next decade or so, both of which would be worse for us than the hardest BrExit now.
so, Let in a crazy, rapey racist because the next guy must be worse?
Trump will prob still be the nominee in Nov and will probably be crushed. The GOP will change their nomination process to stop someone like him being nominee again.
The 'deplorables' are still just a small percentage of the voting public.
Ted Cruz is desperate to get into the oval office, he will spend the next four years tacking in a more populist direction, and probably win. You will find him just as unacceptable as Trump, probably more so, but instead of a buffoon who will make the population fall out of love with populism as he screws stuff up, you will get a brilliant, effective, dangerous operator doing the same stuff, just much more competently, good luck with that.
So then how long before sterling recovers v the euro... my g and is costing me.more every day....
Instead of listening to people saying there is no shark attack, the girl was hit by a speedboat and the kids are probably off playing somewhere, it's probably best if you tell your family to just sunbathe on the sand. Leavers are convnced that £1=$1.24 and falling is a GOOD THING and NOTHING TO DO WITH BREXIT HONEST, so probably best to just get out of GBP for a while.
The EU's 'punishment' strategy is suicide. How on earth do they think the politics of fear will play out with the countries inside? countries that are democracies and have their own misgivings about the whole project?
I do wonder whether Brexit will be a trend-setter along the lines of privatisation. At first the world thought "Are you mad - selling off the family silver???" - only to then take it up themselves with an enthusiasm that would have made Thatcher blush....
It's an amazing coincidence it started immediately after May's speech then.
So to summarise.
* The drop in the pound between Autumn 2015 (when the renegotations started) and the days before polling was a coincidence. * The rise in the pound on polling day when the markets thought an IN vote was baked in was a coincidence. * The 15cent fall in the value of the pound the day after when LEAVE won was a coincidence * The 5-ishcent fall last week after May gave her speech was a coincidence.
I am sympathetic to interest rates and divergent central bank activities being confounding factors. But looking at the big picture, if you were modelling this, you'd be going "Hmm. Brexit kills GBP".
Whatever the trigger, the Economic Fundamentals meant it was long overdue, just as it was in 1992. We can only benefit from the rebalancing just as we did in 1992
For a start the rise in shares (due to dollar earnings) and inevitable interest rate rises will save the pension industry.
A sharper rise in interest rates will hurt the buy to let sector and lower property prices. It will also hurt some people who have borrowed too much but May is focussed on those who cant get on the ladder at all so it will be largely a case of Oh Dear, what a shame, how sad, lets move on.
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
I was just about to say the same thing - the GOP are actively sabotaging the ground war, the media are almost 99% against - RNC bigwigs are using every excuse to run in the other direction.
My timeline is rammed with angry Trumpers - it's getting most heated. The GOP seems to be thinking that they'd rather kill off their own candidate than let him continue for another 30ish days.
And Trump is going CAPS LOCK on sticking with it.
you are acting like its because of Trumps politics, whereas its his disgusting comments about sexually assaulting women turning off voters (as well as his other disgusting comments over the months). If the GOP thought he was winning, they would stick with him
He is right. This weekends revelations tell us little new about Trump. The establishment in the US are very scared, especially after the Brexit vote. And frankly they have a lot to be scared about. They have shit on their own people and enriched themselves in the process.
Ironically the best strategy would be to let him win and crash and burn.
Four or eight years of uber establishment Hillary will just take the pressure cooker to boiling point and see a far cleverer and demagogic version of Trump appear.
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
I was just about to say the same thing - the GOP are actively sabotaging the ground war, the media are almost 99% against - RNC bigwigs are using every excuse to run in the other direction.
My timeline is rammed with angry Trumpers - it's getting most heated. The GOP seems to be thinking that they'd rather kill off their own candidate than let him continue for another 30ish days.
And Trump is going CAPS LOCK on sticking with it.
Someone who's willing to describe his own daughter as "a piece of ass" is plainly unsuitable to be a Presidential nominee.
Unfortunately, so is his opponent.
Ridiculous. A father praising his daughter's attractiveness is the most natural thing in the world.
I am sympathetic to interest rates and divergent central bank activities being confounding factors. But looking at the big picture, if you were modelling this, you'd be going "Hmm. Brexit kills GBP".
I know remainers love talking about GDP because it suits their narrative, but they seem to be very quiet about the FTSE250, currently about 10% up on BrExit, so British business doing well, even those that are not multinationals benefiting from earning in USD.
FTSE350 is up considerably as well.
so is the FTSE All Shares Index.
DOOOM! DOOM! I say!
An interesting leap from the performance of a market index to the supposed performance of the economy, there! Through time the correlation between the two has been weak.
So what you are telling me is when the FTSE indices plummeted for a few days after the referendum that was due to the referendum but the constant growth, that is to say the increase in market value of British companies, not something that tends to happen when business is bad, is not related to the referendum.
It's an amazing coincidence it started immediately after May's speech then.
So to summarise.
* The drop in the pound between Autumn 2015 (when the renegotations started) and the days before polling was a coincidence. * The rise in the pound on polling day when the markets thought an IN vote was baked in was a coincidence. * The 15cent fall in the value of the pound the day after when LEAVE won was a coincidence * The 5-ishcent fall last week after May gave her speech was a coincidence.
I am sympathetic to interest rates and divergent central bank activities being confounding factors. But looking at the big picture, if you were modelling this, you'd be going "Hmm. Brexit kills GBP".
Whatever the trigger, the Economic Fundamentals meant it was long overdue, just as it was in 1992. We can only benefit from the rebalancing just as we did in 1992
For a start the rise in shares (due to dollar earnings) and inevitable interest rate rises will save the pension industry.
A sharper rise in interest rates will hurt the buy to let sector and lower property prices. It will also hurt some people who have borrowed too much but May is focussed on those who cant get on the ladder at all so it will be largely a case of Oh Dear, what a shame, how sad, lets move on.
Obviously the markets think there will be a sharper rise in interest rates in the UK...... that's why sterling is soaring upwards. NOT. Even with the prospect of imported inflation, the markets think that an interest rate rise is a million miles way.
The economic incompetence of some Brexit thinking never fails to amuse me. Theresa May floated the idea of a hard Brexit and sterling tanked. She needs to float some other ideas that are better suited to the long term economic well being of the UK.
Christ this place is getting to be a bore. Endless banging on about the fictional "hard" and "soft" BrExit when there is patently no such thing, the only BrExit is the one that we are able to negotiate with the EU, which is almost certainly going to be fairly hard, because their choice is going to be "four freedoms" or "f*ck off", and any politician opting for four freedoms is committing electoral suicide.
Yes, we might get a few tidbits around free trade in agriculture and maybe machinery, but that will be about it. EEA/EFTA isn't going to happen, and as I have said many times before is never going to happen, because it's political suicide, it was political suicide before the referendum, and its doubly so now. So lets just stop all this hard, harder, hardest cr@p it might be good for point scoring, but its vapid bilge.
Yes, people should not be able to speculate about ideal or likely possibilities on PB of all places.
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
I was just about to say the same thing - the GOP are actively sabotaging the ground war, the media are almost 99% against - RNC bigwigs are using every excuse to run in the other direction.
My timeline is rammed with angry Trumpers - it's getting most heated. The GOP seems to be thinking that they'd rather kill off their own candidate than let him continue for another 30ish days.
And Trump is going CAPS LOCK on sticking with it.
Someone who's willing to describe his own daughter as "a piece of ass" is plainly unsuitable to be a Presidential nominee.
Unfortunately, so is his opponent.
Ridiculous. A father praising his daughter's attractiveness is the most natural thing in the world.
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
I was just about to say the same thing - the GOP are actively sabotaging the ground war, the media are almost 99% against - RNC bigwigs are using every excuse to run in the other direction.
My timeline is rammed with angry Trumpers - it's getting most heated. The GOP seems to be thinking that they'd rather kill off their own candidate than let him continue for another 30ish days.
And Trump is going CAPS LOCK on sticking with it.
Someone who's willing to describe his own daughter as "a piece of ass" is plainly unsuitable to be a Presidential nominee.
Unfortunately, so is his opponent.
Ridiculous. A father praising his daughter's attractiveness is the most natural thing in the world.
Not in those terms.
Stern's a vulgarian, it's his idiom. Trump didn't use those words.
So then how long before sterling recovers v the euro... my g and is costing me.more every day....
Instead of listening to people saying there is no shark attack, the girl was hit by a speedboat and the kids are probably off playing somewhere, it's probably best if you tell your family to just sunbathe on the sand. Leavers are convnced that £1=$1.24 and falling is a GOOD THING and NOTHING TO DO WITH BREXIT HONEST, so probably best to just get out of GBP for a while.
Perhaps you'd like to say whether the sterling exchange rate should be rising or falling given that the UK has had a current account deficit of nearly £300bn during the last three years ?
Do you think the rest of the world is going to permanently give the UK more goods and services than it gets in return ?
It's an amazing coincidence it started immediately after May's speech then.
So to summarise.
* The drop in the pound between Autumn 2015 (when the renegotations started) and the days before polling was a coincidence. * The rise in the pound on polling day when the markets thought an IN vote was baked in was a coincidence. * The 15cent fall in the value of the pound the day after when LEAVE won was a coincidence * The 5-ishcent fall last week after May gave her speech was a coincidence.
I am sympathetic to interest rates and divergent central bank activities being confounding factors. But looking at the big picture, if you were modelling this, you'd be going "Hmm. Brexit kills GBP".
Whatever the trigger, the Economic Fundamentals meant it was long overdue, just as it was in 1992. We can only benefit from the rebalancing just as we did in 1992
For a start the rise in shares (due to dollar earnings) and inevitable interest rate rises will save the pension industry.
A sharper rise in interest rates will hurt the buy to let sector and lower property prices. It will also hurt some people who have borrowed too much but May is focussed on those who cant get on the ladder at all so it will be largely a case of Oh Dear, what a shame, how sad, lets move on.
So. Brexit is going to cause the pound to fall and interest rates to rise. Can I put that on a poster? I was thinking something along the lines of "BREXIT MAKES EVERYTHING MORE EXPENSIVE AND MAKES YOUR MORTGAGE AND CREDIT CARD BILLS GO UP"
Incidentally, I'm not sure about the property prices thing. A cheaper pound would encourage people from outside the UK to buy UK property. People wandering around Belgravia with their strong currency going "Hmm, I'm not sure about those windows" and writing articles about how UK's so surprisingly cheap these days and how the locals are charming and will do anything for a Euro.
I am sympathetic to interest rates and divergent central bank activities being confounding factors. But looking at the big picture, if you were modelling this, you'd be going "Hmm. Brexit kills GBP".
I know remainers love talking about GDP because it suits their narrative, but they seem to be very quiet about the FTSE250, currently about 10% up on BrExit, so British business doing well, even those that are not multinationals benefiting from earning in USD.
FTSE350 is up considerably as well.
so is the FTSE All Shares Index.
DOOOM! DOOM! I say!
I think you'll find a 20% devaluation in sterling overnight presented some value in companies listed on the FTSE.
Just a question....how much do you think sterling has to devalue before Brexit economic illiterates suddenly start realising we might have some kind of crisis in the UK economy?
Christ this place is getting to be a bore. Endless banging on about the fictional "hard" and "soft" BrExit when there is patently no such thing, the only BrExit is the one that we are able to negotiate with the EU, which is almost certainly going to be fairly hard, because their choice is going to be "four freedoms" or "f*ck off", and any politician opting for four freedoms is committing electoral suicide.
Yes, we might get a few tidbits around free trade in agriculture and maybe machinery, but that will be about it. EEA/EFTA isn't going to happen, and as I have said many times before is never going to happen, because it's political suicide, it was political suicide before the referendum, and its doubly so now. So lets just stop all this hard, harder, hardest cr@p it might be good for point scoring, but its vapid bilge.
Yes, people should not be able to speculate about ideal or likely possibilities on PB of all places.
Especially since such speculation mostly concerns the risks of precisely the outcome the OP predicts. Trying to think through the implications of likely developments is clearly the devil's work and no good will come of it.
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
It's the head-in-the-sand approach, if Trump doesnt win this time the resentment of the WWC and the dispossessed will simmer, Hillary is absolutely not the right president to hold out the olive branch to those parts of her country. In 2020 there will be a new populist republican candidate, only someone more plausible and less of a fscking idiot, and he will win with a landslide, and then do pretty much everything Trump is talking about doing and probably more. Trump would be an ineffectual lame dog populist president, the next guy wont be.
Its the same bullsh*t as the remain campaign believing that the EU is going to be a 400 year reich, rather than the more realistic view that it is either going to federalise or implode with in the next decade or so, both of which would be worse for us than the hardest BrExit now.
so, Let in a crazy, rapey racist because the next guy must be worse?
Trump will prob still be the nominee in Nov and will probably be crushed. The GOP will change their nomination process to stop someone like him being nominee again.
The 'deplorables' are still just a small percentage of the voting public.
Ted Cruz is desperate to get into the oval office, he will spend the next four years tacking in a more populist direction, and probably win. You will find him just as unacceptable as Trump, probably more so, but instead of a buffoon who will make the population fall out of love with populism as he screws stuff up, you will get a brilliant, effective, dangerous operator doing the same stuff, just much more competently, good luck with that.
Cruz fucked himself by backing Trump. Ivhed held out for 1 more week he would be a lock for 2020. Bubrevealin himself to be just as dependent on the money providers as every other politician has screwed him with RedState like folks. He will go on where.
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
I was just about to say the same thing - the GOP are actively sabotaging the ground war, the media are almost 99% against - RNC bigwigs are using every excuse to run in the other direction.
My timeline is rammed with angry Trumpers - it's getting most heated. The GOP seems to be thinking that they'd rather kill off their own candidate than let him continue for another 30ish days.
And Trump is going CAPS LOCK on sticking with it.
you are acting like its because of Trumps politics, whereas its his disgusting comments about sexually assaulting women turning off voters (as well as his other disgusting comments over the months). If the GOP thought he was winning, they would stick with him
Trumps success to date, and probable failure, has seemed all along to have more to do with his style, tone and ability to provoke an emotional response than his core politics.
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
It's the head-in-the-sand approach, if Trump doesnt win this time the resentment of the WWC and the dispossessed will simmer, Hillary is absolutely not the right president to hold out the olive branch to those parts of her country. In 2020 there will be a new populist republican candidate, only someone more plausible and less of a fscking idiot, and he will win with a landslide, and then do pretty much everything Trump is talking about doing and probably more. Trump would be an ineffectual lame dog populist president, the next guy wont be.
Its the same bullsh*t as the remain campaign believing that the EU is going to be a 400 year reich, rather than the more realistic view that it is either going to federalise or implode with in the next decade or so, both of which would be worse for us than the hardest BrExit now.
so, Let in a crazy, rapey racist because the next guy must be worse?
Trump will prob still be the nominee in Nov and will probably be crushed. The GOP will change their nomination process to stop someone like him being nominee again.
The 'deplorables' are still just a small percentage of the voting public.
Ted Cruz is desperate to get into the oval office, he will spend the next four years tacking in a more populist direction, and probably win. You will find him just as unacceptable as Trump, probably more so, but instead of a buffoon who will make the population fall out of love with populism as he screws stuff up, you will get a brilliant, effective, dangerous operator doing the same stuff, just much more competently, good luck with that.
i think cruz is even more hated than Trump, especially with the Trumpers
Christ this place is getting to be a bore. Endless banging on about the fictional "hard" and "soft" BrExit when there is patently no such thing, the only BrExit is the one that we are able to negotiate with the EU, which is almost certainly going to be fairly hard, because their choice is going to be "four freedoms" or "f*ck off", and any politician opting for four freedoms is committing electoral suicide.
Yes, we might get a few tidbits around free trade in agriculture and maybe machinery, but that will be about it. EEA/EFTA isn't going to happen, and as I have said many times before is never going to happen, because it's political suicide, it was political suicide before the referendum, and its doubly so now. So lets just stop all this hard, harder, hardest cr@p it might be good for point scoring, but its vapid bilge.
Yes, people should not be able to speculate about ideal or likely possibilities on PB of all places.
Could you point me to informed speculation on the subject, all l can see is grandstanding and point scoring.
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
I was just about to say the same thing - the GOP are actively sabotaging the ground war, the media are almost 99% against - RNC bigwigs are using every excuse to run in the other direction.
My timeline is rammed with angry Trumpers - it's getting most heated. The GOP seems to be thinking that they'd rather kill off their own candidate than let him continue for another 30ish days.
And Trump is going CAPS LOCK on sticking with it.
Someone who's willing to describe his own daughter as "a piece of ass" is plainly unsuitable to be a Presidential nominee.
Unfortunately, so is his opponent.
Ridiculous. A father praising his daughter's attractiveness is the most natural thing in the world.
I would have sex with her if she wasn't my daughter.
Words you hear from the average father every day I'm sure.
I am sympathetic to interest rates and divergent central bank activities being confounding factors. But looking at the big picture, if you were modelling this, you'd be going "Hmm. Brexit kills GBP".
I know remainers love talking about GDP because it suits their narrative, but they seem to be very quiet about the FTSE250, currently about 10% up on BrExit, so British business doing well, even those that are not multinationals benefiting from earning in USD.
FTSE350 is up considerably as well.
so is the FTSE All Shares Index.
DOOOM! DOOM! I say!
I think you'll find a 20% devaluation in sterling overnight presented some value in companies listed on the FTSE.
Just a question....how much do you think sterling has to devalue before Brexit economic illiterates suddenly start realising we might have some kind of crisis in the UK economy?
You will notice I didnt mention the FTSE index, because I am aware of that effect, the same appears to be true on the indices of smaller companies as well.
Frankly this is getting to be a bore, you are so desperate for BrExit to be a failure, for us to get kicked into the WTO with nothing, just so you can gloat and say I told you so its sad.
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
It's the head-in-the-sand approach, if Trump doesnt win this time the resentment of the WWC and the dispossessed will simmer, Hillary is absolutely not the right president to hold out the olive branch to those parts of her country. In 2020 there will be a new populist republican candidate, only someone more plausible and less of a fscking idiot, and he will win with a landslide, and then do pretty much everything Trump is talking about doing and probably more. Trump would be an ineffectual lame dog populist president, the next guy wont be.
Its the same bullsh*t as the remain campaign believing that the EU is going to be a 400 year reich, rather than the more realistic view that it is either going to federalise or implode with in the next decade or so, both of which would be worse for us than the hardest BrExit now.
so, Let in a crazy, rapey racist because the next guy must be worse?
Trump will prob still be the nominee in Nov and will probably be crushed. The GOP will change their nomination process to stop someone like him being nominee again.
The 'deplorables' are still just a small percentage of the voting public.
Ted Cruz is desperate to get into the oval office, he will spend the next four years tacking in a more populist direction, and probably win. You will find him just as unacceptable as Trump, probably more so, but instead of a buffoon who will make the population fall out of love with populism as he screws stuff up, you will get a brilliant, effective, dangerous operator doing the same stuff, just much more competently, good luck with that.
i think cruz is even more hated than Trump, especially with the Trumpers
I'm sure Hillary is even more hated than Trump, especially with the Bernie Bros.
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
No, the problem is that Trump will destroy the down ticket GOP candidates clearing the way for Hillary in the House and Senate.
Who exactly determines the boundaries for the House, which are so biased towards the Reps? What would it take to get this changed?
State legislature, so the governor.
So the Rep states are more shameless about this than the Dem states?
Not really, both sides are at it, they redistrict in their favour whenever they can. The difference is that the GOP support states rights a bit better and Dem voters are lazy in non-POTUS cycles so the the GOP hold more states.
It seems to me that an awful lot of people are not only anxious that Trump doesn't win, but also that he doesn;t run.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
I was just about to say the same thing - the GOP are actively sabotaging the ground war, the media are almost 99% against - RNC bigwigs are using every excuse to run in the other direction.
My timeline is rammed with angry Trumpers - it's getting most heated. The GOP seems to be thinking that they'd rather kill off their own candidate than let him continue for another 30ish days.
And Trump is going CAPS LOCK on sticking with it.
Someone who's willing to describe his own daughter as "a piece of ass" is plainly unsuitable to be a Presidential nominee.
Unfortunately, so is his opponent.
Ridiculous. A father praising his daughter's attractiveness is the most natural thing in the world.
It's an amazing coincidence it started immediately after May's speech then.
So to summarise.
* The drop in the pound between Autumn 2015 (when the renegotations started) and the days before polling was a coincidence. * The rise in the pound on polling day when the markets thought an IN vote was baked in was a coincidence. * The 15cent fall in the value of the pound the day after when LEAVE won was a coincidence * The 5-ishcent fall last week after May gave her speech was a coincidence.
I am sympathetic to interest rates and divergent central bank activities being confounding factors. But looking at the big picture, if you were modelling this, you'd be going "Hmm. Brexit kills GBP".
Whatever the trigger, the Economic Fundamentals meant it was long overdue, just as it was in 1992. We can only benefit from the rebalancing just as we did in 1992
For a start the rise in shares (due to dollar earnings) and inevitable interest rate rises will save the pension industry.
A sharper rise in interest rates will hurt the buy to let sector and lower property prices. It will also hurt some people who have borrowed too much but May is focussed on those who cant get on the ladder at all so it will be largely a case of Oh Dear, what a shame, how sad, lets move on.
So. Brexit is going to cause the pound to fall and interest rates to rise. Can I put that on a poster? I was thinking something along the lines of "BREXIT MAKES EVERYTHING MORE EXPENSIVE AND MAKES YOUR MORTGAGE AND CREDIT CARD BILLS GO UP"
Incidentally, I'm not sure about the property prices thing. A cheaper pound would encourage people from outside the UK to buy UK property. People wandering around Belgravia with their strong currency going "Hmm, I'm not sure about those windows" and writing articles about how UK's so surprisingly cheap these days and how the locals are charming and will do anything for a Euro.
Jesus H...sterling tanking, high interest rates underpinned by the ongoing battle against poor productivity and stagnant wage growth. A Brexit, dystopic reality....
Welcome to bargain basement Britain where Poundland and Aldi rule, people get poorer, a downward march of ongoing austerity as our public services become starved of cash yet faced with much greater demands.
Well we can always blame the EU for giving us a bad deal, or failing that just hate foreigners and migrants more to make us feel better.
So then how long before sterling recovers v the euro... my g and is costing me.more every day....
Instead of listening to people saying there is no shark attack, the girl was hit by a speedboat and the kids are probably off playing somewhere, it's probably best if you tell your family to just sunbathe on the sand. Leavers are convnced that £1=$1.24 and falling is a GOOD THING and NOTHING TO DO WITH BREXIT HONEST, so probably best to just get out of GBP for a while.
Perhaps you'd like to say whether the sterling exchange rate should be rising or falling given that the UK has had a current account deficit of nearly £300bn during the last three years ?
Do you think the rest of the world is going to permanently give the UK more goods and services than it gets in return ?
I think (see my previous posts) that current account deficits should be coped with by earning more and spending less, instead of devaluing the currency. The wanton profligacy of the Government since 2001 since Blair/Brown decided to splurge it up the wall like a demented sailor, unmitigated by Cameron's upper-class conviction that money just appears somehow and talking about it is just so retrousse, was not approved of by me.
Christ this place is getting to be a bore. Endless banging on about the fictional "hard" and "soft" BrExit when there is patently no such thing, the only BrExit is the one that we are able to negotiate with the EU, which is almost certainly going to be fairly hard, because their choice is going to be "four freedoms" or "f*ck off", and any politician opting for four freedoms is committing electoral suicide.
Yes, we might get a few tidbits around free trade in agriculture and maybe machinery, but that will be about it. EEA/EFTA isn't going to happen, and as I have said many times before is never going to happen, because it's political suicide, it was political suicide before the referendum, and its doubly so now. So lets just stop all this hard, harder, hardest cr@p it might be good for point scoring, but its vapid bilge.
Yes, people should not be able to speculate about ideal or likely possibilities on PB of all places.
Could you point me to informed speculation on the subject, all l can see is grandstanding and point scoring.
As is most commentary. I'm bored by much of the talk as well, but there's no need to be a dick about it, particularly by acting like the only person who can see the way it will, for definite, go. And plenty of people have made informed speculation on the subject. Is that the balance of comment right now, this morning? For everyone to judge, but to pretend it has all been grandstanding, apart from your own speculation which is exempt apparently, is itself pure posturing. And believe me, I'm no stranger to posturing sanctimony. It's kind of my thing.
Comments
Delaying any compromise until UKIP is finished is clearly in the interests of the Tory party and will make it easier to compromise on Brexit later. Plus, the talk of hard exit may shore up our negotiating position with the EU.
It was a response to hardening interest expectations for the Fed (upwards) and the BoE comments that they would move away from data to an entirely politically driven interest policy (downwards).
It is an eternal problem in EU negotiations that the Government is bullied by the press in advance to reveal their "red lines" to the public. Which is probably part of the reason why they rarely come away with a deal that meets media/public approval. Maybe they've learned their lesson and they're just doing a very good job of obscuring what the real objectives of the Government are.
A Ukip MEP has said Theresa May’s immigration policies are ‘a step too far’.
That’s right – the current government is too extreme for Ukip.
Let’s all just let that sink in.
Helmer said that May and Home Secretary Amber Rudd’s proposal of making firms provide lists of their foreign workers was ‘far beyond’ what Ukip would have done.
He also attacked their ban on foreign academics advising on Brexit as ‘astonishing’.
http://metro.co.uk/2016/10/08/theresa-may-crackdown-foreigners-a-step-too-far-according-to-ukip-6180634/
https://twitter.com/SweetPeaPatsy/status/784851509351559168
However, it's my understanding the LSE story has been denied by the Government and there's no quote or documentation to support it. Could be wrong, but that's what I gather.
The EU and it's attachment to daft, impractical european dogma will determine whether it is hard or soft Brexit - not our government.
It is fairly clear that we would opt for free trade without free movement, but if this sense is beyond them, then we move on in a different way whilst unshackling ourselves from these ideologically obsessed euro-loons.
"A Tory delegate got a shock after attempting to grab a passing waitress in the conference Hyatt Hotel on Monday to order breakfast. ‘I’d be happy to,’ she replied, ‘but I’m afraid I’m not actually a waitress. I’m the Home Secretary.’ Amber Rudd – service with a smile"
Nigel Farage: Trump 'Not Running to Be Pope--He's Running For President'
Yes, Labour IS now the nasty party: It grieves him to admit it, but the former Home Secretary DAVID BLUNKETT has to agree with the PM's damning indictment of his movement
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3828890/Yes-Labour-nasty-party-grieves-admit-former-Home-Secretary-DAVID-BLUNKETT-agree-PM-s-damning-indictment-movement.html#ixzz4MZfEO2eT
Oddly enuf, I did read it before you pointed it ou, but thank you for the link regardless.
Booker (not Barkworth) is perfectly aware of the implications of Hard Brexit and is scared by them (see his previous posts). He is interpreting May's speech in the best possible way to alleviate his own fears. Whilst I hope he is correct (and if enuf people read him GBP may stabilise, so yay!), a hard Brexit is still possible[nb 1] and despite Booker's concerns it does seem to be the way things are going.
[nb 1] Fraser Nelson's and Richard_Tyndall's separate excoriations of Remainers is subtle confirmation of this - why else would they be so keen to blame Remainers so harshly?
Yes, we might get a few tidbits around free trade in agriculture and maybe machinery, but that will be about it. EEA/EFTA isn't going to happen, and as I have said many times before is never going to happen, because it's political suicide, it was political suicide before the referendum, and its doubly so now. So lets just stop all this hard, harder, hardest cr@p it might be good for point scoring, but its vapid bilge.
They don;t want the politics Trump represents put before the American people.
Here's a thing. It might just be that the international markets have decided that Brexit is bad for the UK. You may disagree. You may even be right (altho' I don't). But that is their stance, Blaming remainers or using slurs ("remoaners") will not change their minds.
The single market? Where is the uniform minimum wage? Uniform tax rates? Cars and roads that all work on the same side? A common form of electrical wiring/current? A single language? A single set of property and planning laws.
It's a myth. It doesn't really exist.
Would they dare acknowledge it, or the stupidity of free movement rules that floods one nation while asset stripping and hollowing out another?
Well, its a strategy.
The expats say the EU Commission chief's ban on Brexit talks before Article 50 is triggered is "wrong, unlawful and unfair".
http://news.sky.com/story/british-expats-to-take-jean-claude-juncker-to-court-10609587
Its the same bullsh*t as the remain campaign believing that the EU is going to be a 400 year reich, rather than the more realistic view that it is either going to federalise or implode with in the next decade or so, both of which would be worse for us than the hardest BrExit now.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/japan-post-race-analysis-2016.html
Air New Zealand
Meet Dave. He's a bird. Yet he does all of his flying with Air New Zealand. Why? He found a #BetterWayToFly https://t.co/f9fYNbvKMM
On the other hand the alternative policies and standing ( or stumbling) HRC is not sufficiently appealing to GOTV but perhaps will be just enough to do the job.
If Woolf is claiming to have been punched, why are the French police not investigating? He is claiming that a crime has been committed.
There is a political imperative in this country, one we have not had for many a long year. That is, 52% of the population have made clear their desire to leave the EU. There was no "Bitter Ender" option on the Referendum ballot paper. There was a "just get us out - you work out how" option - the one that has been handed to May.
No Prime Minister has been handed a 52% manifesto win since JackW was a nipper. So she will deliver what is practical. That will depend on how much those in Brussels want to be an arse. If they want to be an arse, the British people will accept that the EU wanted to be an arse, and sign off on what she needs to do to deliver Brexit. It's that simple.
So to summarise.
* The drop in the pound between Autumn 2015 (when the renegotations started) and the days before polling was a coincidence.
* The rise in the pound on polling day when the markets thought an IN vote was baked in was a coincidence.
* The 15cent fall in the value of the pound the day after when LEAVE won was a coincidence
* The 5-ishcent fall last week after May gave her speech was a coincidence.
I am sympathetic to interest rates and divergent central bank activities being confounding factors. But looking at the big picture, if you were modelling this, you'd be going "Hmm. Brexit kills GBP".
Trump will prob still be the nominee in Nov and will probably be crushed. The GOP will change their nomination process to stop someone like him being nominee again.
The 'deplorables' are still just a small percentage of the voting public.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/sprengstoff-gefunden-polizei-warnt-bevoelkerung-vor-fluechtigem-terrorverdaechtigen-14471993.html
My timeline is rammed with angry Trumpers - it's getting most heated. The GOP seems to be thinking that they'd rather kill off their own candidate than let him continue for another 30ish days.
And Trump is going CAPS LOCK on sticking with it.
I'm sure that is what you wish to believe. But the reason America's elite don;t want Trump to run is it will emerge the 'deplorables' are a much larger percentage than any of them want to admit.
FTSE350 is up considerably as well.
so is the FTSE All Shares Index.
DOOOM! DOOM! I say!
Unfortunately, so is his opponent.
' Baroness Nicholson of Winterbourne has returned to the Conservative Party 21 years after she defected to the Liberal Democrats.
The peer said she would rejoin the party next week "with tremendous pleasure".
She said her energies were "dedicated to fighting for our new PM and her policies".
Listing her reasons for rejoining the Tories, she highlighted Theresa May's education speech on Friday as evidence that the prime minister "leads a party with a real commitment to delivering for the next generation and building a country that works for everyone". '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37329394
' A peer has been tempted to switch to the Conservative Party after resigning the Liberal Democrat whip last month.
Zahida Manzoor quit over the Liberal Democrats' policies on Europe and praised what she said was Prime Minister Theresa May's clear leadership on Brexit. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37599184
For a start the rise in shares (due to dollar earnings) and inevitable interest rate rises will save the pension industry.
A sharper rise in interest rates will hurt the buy to let sector and lower property prices. It will also hurt some people who have borrowed too much but May is focussed on those who cant get on the ladder at all so it will be largely a case of Oh Dear, what a shame, how sad, lets move on.
Ironically the best strategy would be to let him win and crash and burn.
Four or eight years of uber establishment Hillary will just take the pressure cooker to boiling point and see a far cleverer and demagogic version of Trump appear.
Obviously the markets think there will be a sharper rise in interest rates in the UK...... that's why sterling is soaring upwards. NOT. Even with the prospect of imported inflation, the markets think that an interest rate rise is a million miles way.
The economic incompetence of some Brexit thinking never fails to amuse me. Theresa May floated the idea of a hard Brexit and sterling tanked. She needs to float some other ideas that are better suited to the long term economic well being of the UK.
Do you think the rest of the world is going to permanently give the UK more goods and services than it gets in return ?
Incidentally, I'm not sure about the property prices thing. A cheaper pound would encourage people from outside the UK to buy UK property. People wandering around Belgravia with their strong currency going "Hmm, I'm not sure about those windows" and writing articles about how UK's so surprisingly cheap these days and how the locals are charming and will do anything for a Euro.
Just a question....how much do you think sterling has to devalue before Brexit economic illiterates suddenly start realising we might have some kind of crisis in the UK economy?
Words you hear from the average father every day I'm sure.
Frankly this is getting to be a bore, you are so desperate for BrExit to be a failure, for us to get kicked into the WTO with nothing, just so you can gloat and say I told you so its sad.
Welcome to bargain basement Britain where Poundland and Aldi rule, people get poorer, a downward march of ongoing austerity as our public services become starved of cash yet faced with much greater demands.
Well we can always blame the EU for giving us a bad deal, or failing that just hate foreigners and migrants more to make us feel better.