For those following the ongoing Trump Twitter meltdown Hilary has just accused Trump of choking in Mexico by failing to bring up the wall with the president.
I may need to get popcorn.
They must be living under a rock if they don't know about his plan to build it.
I'm sure Donald is going to react calmly and rationally. Or maybe he'll start mentioning sex tapes again.
I'm not sure what Clinton's point is, unless it is to be built in Mexican territory?
You may have missed that Trump said Mexico was going to pay. It's kind of a key plank o the whole plan.
Also, the Mexican president says Trump did raise the issue of the wall and that he stone walled Trump. So to speak.
For those following the ongoing Trump Twitter meltdown Hilary has just accused Trump of choking in Mexico by failing to bring up the wall with the president.
I may need to get popcorn.
They must be living under a rock if they don't know about his plan to build it.
Crickey thats news to me, so Trump is proposing to build a wall?
Who is going to pay for it ?
Bugger me if I have any idea...I only just heard about this policy.
Well we are joking of course, but I think the most simple way is putting a toll booth on the border crossings with Mexico.
In all seriousness, the wall policy of Trump is the actually here nor there. There is already a fence / wall, and as you say they will just more than likely just put tolls on border crossing...and it will make very little difference to illegal immigration.
This is almost all old news; has nothing else happened in the world to give them a cover story?
That front page does mention something that wasn't widely known, but something I mentioned at PB at the time.
When she became PM, she pretty much sacked a lot of the staff, just like that, and the guys and gals didn't have time to leave properly.
I was fuming, FUMING at the way she treated some people who have loyally served the Tory party for years.
Correction, they have served David Cameron for years.
She is De-Camerooing the Tory party from the functionaries of the previous regime. Happens every time there is a leadership change in any political party, there is plenty of experience of that in Labour with 3 new leaders in the last 9 years.
Once again you talk rubbish. These are people who served the Tory party long before Cameron became leader.
The Tory Party shits on those who serve it loyally.
Re hunter gathering versus materialism, it's a little known fact (unless you've read THE GENESIS SECRET by Tom Knox), that the shift to agriculture in 8000BC (onwards), AKA the Neolithic Revolution, was a catastrophe in many ways: human lives grew shorter, new diseases were contracted from domesticated animals, diets grew POORER, and humans actually shrunk in stature.
I believe modern day Greeks are still smaller, on average, than their hunter gatherer forebears of 10,000BC.
BUT agriculture made it possible for settlements to grow and for populations to increase, thanks to guaranteed food: in one place at one time, every year.
The shock of the fall from hunter-gathering is seen by some as the source of the Expulsion-from-Eden myth (found in many cultures worldwide).
And, increased population would have provided a military advantage over the remaining hunter/gatherers. As well as providing surplus income for new noble/priestly classes.
This is almost all old news; has nothing else happened in the world to give them a cover story?
That front page does mention something that wasn't widely known, but something I mentioned at PB at the time.
When she became PM, she pretty much sacked a lot of the staff, just like that, and the guys and gals didn't have time to leave properly.
I was fuming, FUMING at the way she treated some people who have loyally served the Tory party for years.
Correction, they have served David Cameron for years.
She is De-Camerooing the Tory party from the functionaries of the previous regime. Happens every time there is a leadership change in any political party, there is plenty of experience of that in Labour with 3 new leaders in the last 9 years.
Once again you talk rubbish. These are people who served the Tory party long before Cameron became leader.
The Tory Party shits on those who serve it loyally.
The cost of shifting onto Theresa May's ground. Lets see how the conference and her two speeches go down this week in front of the 12,000 attending and the wider electorate.
This is almost all old news; has nothing else happened in the world to give them a cover story?
That front page does mention something that wasn't widely known, but something I mentioned at PB at the time.
When she became PM, she pretty much sacked a lot of the staff, just like that, and the guys and gals didn't have time to leave properly.
I was fuming, FUMING at the way she treated some people who have loyally served the Tory party for years.
If that's true, it's both graceless (where in this case grace would cost nothing other than a few hours) and shows a startling lack of appreciation that what goes up also comes down.
The chants of 'lock her up' are becoming more frequent at these rallies. He's focusing heavily on the timing of the subpoena for Hillary's emails coming before the deletion.
Donald Trump is going to lose this election talking about his favourite subject: himself.
I was just thinking almost exactly the same thing myself.
'Unhinged' is right.
The guy is a complete and utter narcissist and it scares the hell out of me how many of the good folk on this blog seem to have been taken in by him. I mean I get the dislike for Hilary but active support for Trump is edging into dangerous territory.
The chants of 'lock her up' are becoming more frequent at these rallies. He's focusing heavily on the timing of the subpoena for Hillary's emails coming before the deletion.
I don't think that was her fault though, it was that guy in the IT company who realised he hadn't deleted the email when he should have. I don't think (or at least I don't think it has been shown) that he was acting under instruction.
This is almost all old news; has nothing else happened in the world to give them a cover story?
That front page does mention something that wasn't widely known, but something I mentioned at PB at the time.
When she became PM, she pretty much sacked a lot of the staff, just like that, and the guys and gals didn't have time to leave properly.
I was fuming, FUMING at the way she treated some people who have loyally served the Tory party for years.
If that's true, it's both graceless (where in this case grace would cost nothing other than a few hours) and shows a startling lack of appreciation that what goes up also comes down.
This is what I posted on the night Mrs May became PM and sacked a lot of decent people
Anyway, I have to leave you all, has been a very depressing day today, a lot of people I've gotten to know, like, and admire have lost their jobs today, and I'm in a right grumpy mood because of it and no amount of winnings compensates for that.
This is almost all old news; has nothing else happened in the world to give them a cover story?
That front page does mention something that wasn't widely known, but something I mentioned at PB at the time.
When she became PM, she pretty much sacked a lot of the staff, just like that, and the guys and gals didn't have time to leave properly.
I was fuming, FUMING at the way she treated some people who have loyally served the Tory party for years.
If that's true, it's both graceless (where in this case grace would cost nothing other than a few hours) and shows a startling lack of appreciation that what goes up also comes down.
This is what I posted on the night Mrs May became PM and sacked a lot of decent people
Anyway, I have to leave you all, has been a very depressing day today, a lot of people I've gotten to know, like, and admire have lost their jobs today, and I'm in a right grumpy mood because of it and no amount of winnings compensates for that.
Reports Theresa May to grant workers rights on company boards and has hired Matthew Taylor from labour to look into abuse of zero hours contracts and workers rights in general. Moving into blue labour according to the Sun
This is almost all old news; has nothing else happened in the world to give them a cover story?
That front page does mention something that wasn't widely known, but something I mentioned at PB at the time.
When she became PM, she pretty much sacked a lot of the staff, just like that, and the guys and gals didn't have time to leave properly.
I was fuming, FUMING at the way she treated some people who have loyally served the Tory party for years.
Correction, they have served David Cameron for years.
She is De-Camerooing the Tory party from the functionaries of the previous regime. Happens every time there is a leadership change in any political party, there is plenty of experience of that in Labour with 3 new leaders in the last 9 years.
Once again you talk rubbish. These are people who served the Tory party long before Cameron became leader.
The Tory Party shits on those who serve it loyally.
The cost of shifting onto Theresa May's ground. Lets see how the conference and her two speeches go down this week in front of the 12,000 attending and the wider electorate.
It's a general observation.
Against Corbyn, the Conservatives are heading for a blow out, 370 seats or thereabouts.
This is almost all old news; has nothing else happened in the world to give them a cover story?
That front page does mention something that wasn't widely known, but something I mentioned at PB at the time.
When she became PM, she pretty much sacked a lot of the staff, just like that, and the guys and gals didn't have time to leave properly.
I was fuming, FUMING at the way she treated some people who have loyally served the Tory party for years.
If that's true, it's both graceless (where in this case grace would cost nothing other than a few hours) and shows a startling lack of appreciation that what goes up also comes down.
This is what I posted on the night Mrs May became PM and sacked a lot of decent people
Anyway, I have to leave you all, has been a very depressing day today, a lot of people I've gotten to know, like, and admire have lost their jobs today, and I'm in a right grumpy mood because of it and no amount of winnings compensates for that.
This is almost all old news; has nothing else happened in the world to give them a cover story?
That front page does mention something that wasn't widely known, but something I mentioned at PB at the time.
When she became PM, she pretty much sacked a lot of the staff, just like that, and the guys and gals didn't have time to leave properly.
I was fuming, FUMING at the way she treated some people who have loyally served the Tory party for years.
If that's true, it's both graceless (where in this case grace would cost nothing other than a few hours) and shows a startling lack of appreciation that what goes up also comes down.
This is what I posted on the night Mrs May became PM and sacked a lot of decent people
Anyway, I have to leave you all, has been a very depressing day today, a lot of people I've gotten to know, like, and admire have lost their jobs today, and I'm in a right grumpy mood because of it and no amount of winnings compensates for that.
This is almost all old news; has nothing else happened in the world to give them a cover story?
That front page does mention something that wasn't widely known, but something I mentioned at PB at the time.
When she became PM, she pretty much sacked a lot of the staff, just like that, and the guys and gals didn't have time to leave properly.
I was fuming, FUMING at the way she treated some people who have loyally served the Tory party for years.
If that's true, it's both graceless (where in this case grace would cost nothing other than a few hours) and shows a startling lack of appreciation that what goes up also comes down.
This is what I posted on the night Mrs May became PM and sacked a lot of decent people
Anyway, I have to leave you all, has been a very depressing day today, a lot of people I've gotten to know, like, and admire have lost their jobs today, and I'm in a right grumpy mood because of it and no amount of winnings compensates for that.
Theres a guy in the crowd behind Trump wearing a nappy. They must of said we'll get a guy to look Muslim, here put this on your head I saw Bin Laden wearing it once.
Theres a guy in the crowd behind Trump wearing a nappy. They must of said we'll get a guy to look Muslim, here put this on your head I saw Bin Laden wearing it once.
Theres a guy in the crowd behind Trump wearing a nappy. They must of said we'll get a guy to look Muslim, here put this on your head I saw Bin Laden wearing it once.
I have to say Trump is the strangest Republican candidate for President. An atheist who openly lechers after very young girls (including his own daughter) and yet may well win the Presidency.
Donald Trump is going to lose this election talking about his favourite subject: himself.
I was just thinking almost exactly the same thing myself.
'Unhinged' is right.
The guy is a complete and utter narcissist and it scares the hell out of me how many of the good folk on this blog seem to have been taken in by him. I mean I get the dislike for Hilary but active support for Trump is edging into dangerous territory.
I would not call him Hitler, the only comparison with Hitler is the way and trajectory Trump conducts his campaign is like how Hitler conducted Germany's war effort.
Using the fanatical devotion of his followers, discarding all traditional advise he achieved a ton of early victories, only to become complacent. Surrounding himself with sycophants and unwilling to understand why he was losing after a clumsy attempt to overthrow him.
On topic, these local election results are clearly great for the Tories and terrible for all other parties, especially Mr Farron's limp dems.
In PB tory world anyway
Far from it, but the Tories still lead, in terms of vote share.
A government * ought * to be losing ground in local elections. The Opposition ought to be gaining ground (and Labour are not).
It's hardly surprising Labour are making no impact, given they've spent 12 months fighting each other rather than the opposition. There's plenty of scope for the Tories to stumble over the nature of Brexit. Initial salvos are already being fired.
Theres a guy in the crowd behind Trump wearing a nappy. They must of said we'll get a guy to look Muslim, here put this on your head I saw Bin Laden wearing it once.
Donald Trump is going to lose this election talking about his favourite subject: himself.
I was just thinking almost exactly the same thing myself.
'Unhinged' is right.
The guy is a complete and utter narcissist and it scares the hell out of me how many of the good folk on this blog seem to have been taken in by him. I mean I get the dislike for Hilary but active support for Trump is edging into dangerous territory.
I would not call him Hitler, the only comparison with Hitler is the way and trajectory Trump conducts his campaign is like how Hitler conducted Germany's war effort.
Using the fanatical devotion of his followers, discarding all traditional advise he achieved a ton of early victories, only to become complacent. Surrounding himself with sycophants and unwilling to understand why he was losing after a clumsy attempt to overthrow him.
As an aside, I think Witney is going to be a very interesting test case of whether there is a LibDem revival. My view:
<5% - Utter disaster, Farron must be under considerable pressure 5-8% - Bad result, LDs threw a lot at it 8-12% - OK result, went forward from the General, but not showing much progress 12-18% - This is the par result. This is what they should be achieving to even hope to get 6-10 seats at the General election 18-24% - Good progress, and almost certainly means that they are a solid second place behind the Conservatives. It also indicates the LD by-election machine is beginning to work again. 24+% - This is a genuinely good result for the LDs, and they can go into future by-elections (such as Richmond Park, if Zac resigns) with a degree of confidence
As an aside, I define a LibDem revival as 10-14% at GE2020, and a similar number of seats.</p>
10-14% of the seats would be more than a revival, it would be a proper miracle
Another example of being divided by a common language: Trump asks his supports to go to polling stations and make sure it's 'on the up and up', meaning above board.
Donald Trump is going to lose this election talking about his favourite subject: himself.
I was just thinking almost exactly the same thing myself.
'Unhinged' is right.
The guy is a complete and utter narcissist and it scares the hell out of me how many of the good folk on this blog seem to have been taken in by him. I mean I get the dislike for Hilary but active support for Trump is edging into dangerous territory.
I would not call him Hitler, the only comparison with Hitler is the way and trajectory Trump conducts his campaign is like how Hitler conducted Germany's war effort.
Using the fanatical devotion of his followers, discarding all traditional advise he achieved a ton of early victories, only to become complacent. Surrounding himself with sycophants and unwilling to understand why he was losing after a clumsy attempt to overthrow him.
Trump is neither as brilliant, nor as evil, as Hitler. He's a braggart and a charlatan, running against a hard leftist of dubious probity.
Another example of being divided by a common language: Trump asks his supports to go to polling stations and make sure it's 'on the up and up', meaning above board.
What about registering, they have to register first to vote, although Michigan has same day registration.
Another example of being divided by a common language: Trump asks his supports to go to polling stations and make sure it's 'on the up and up', meaning above board.
What about registering, they have to register first to vote, although Michigan has same day registration.
According to that Michigan doesn't have same day registration, but 10 other states do. You are right though, he should say "make sure you are registered to vote" as well as "go vote"
As an aside, I think Witney is going to be a very interesting test case of whether there is a LibDem revival. My view:
<5% - Utter disaster, Farron must be under considerable pressure 5-8% - Bad result, LDs threw a lot at it 8-12% - OK result, went forward from the General, but not showing much progress 12-18% - This is the par result. This is what they should be achieving to even hope to get 6-10 seats at the General election 18-24% - Good progress, and almost certainly means that they are a solid second place behind the Conservatives. It also indicates the LD by-election machine is beginning to work again. 24+% - This is a genuinely good result for the LDs, and they can go into future by-elections (such as Richmond Park, if Zac resigns) with a degree of confidence
As an aside, I define a LibDem revival as 10-14% at GE2020, and a similar number of seats.</p>
10-14% of the seats would be more than a revival, it would be a proper miracle
I meant 10-14 seats!
Is that 10-14 taking the reduction to 600 seats into account?
The chants of 'lock her up' are becoming more frequent at these rallies. He's focusing heavily on the timing of the subpoena for Hillary's emails coming before the deletion.
I do still wonder if Trump knows that in the final week of campaigning his bezzy mate Putin is going to release all the e-mails deleted by Hillary and her people.....
I could never vote for Trump. But I do strongly believe that the only reason that Hillary hasn't been charged is that she is the Democrat candidate for President and the FBI feel very uncomfortable getting in the mix for the choice of the candidates standing for President.
Donald Trump is going to lose this election talking about his favourite subject: himself.
I was just thinking almost exactly the same thing myself.
'Unhinged' is right.
The guy is a complete and utter narcissist and it scares the hell out of me how many of the good folk on this blog seem to have been taken in by him. I mean I get the dislike for Hilary but active support for Trump is edging into dangerous territory.
I would not call him Hitler, the only comparison with Hitler is the way and trajectory Trump conducts his campaign is like how Hitler conducted Germany's war effort.
Using the fanatical devotion of his followers, discarding all traditional advise he achieved a ton of early victories, only to become complacent. Surrounding himself with sycophants and unwilling to understand why he was losing after a clumsy attempt to overthrow him.
Trump is neither as brilliant, nor as evil, as Hitler. He's a braggart and a charlatan, running against a hard leftist of dubious probity.
The only European comparison I can think of that really works is with Silvio Berlusconi.
For those following the ongoing Trump Twitter meltdown Hilary has just accused Trump of choking in Mexico by failing to bring up the wall with the president.
I may need to get popcorn.
They must be living under a rock if they don't know about his plan to build it.
Crickey thats news to me, so Trump is proposing to build a wall?
Who is going to pay for it ?
Bugger me if I have any idea...I only just heard about this policy.
Well we are joking of course, but I think the most simple way is putting a toll booth on the border crossings with Mexico.
That'll mainly be Americans who pay, then, on their way back to San Diego with a car full of cheap stuff and from enjoying various experiences less readily available at home?
Donald Trump is going to lose this election talking about his favourite subject: himself.
I was just thinking almost exactly the same thing myself.
'Unhinged' is right.
The guy is a complete and utter narcissist and it scares the hell out of me how many of the good folk on this blog seem to have been taken in by him. I mean I get the dislike for Hilary but active support for Trump is edging into dangerous territory.
I would not call him Hitler, the only comparison with Hitler is the way and trajectory Trump conducts his campaign is like how Hitler conducted Germany's war effort.
Hitler wasn't brilliant militarily but he didn't believe that major military objectives could be achieved so very very fast just because of his own acumen and willpower, as Trump affects to and probably actually does.
Trump often speaks in a pained way, as if channelling and expressing his audience's pain and misery while giving them a powerful assurance that "we're going to end it". There is no contemporary parallel I'm aware of who does that while enjoying support from 40% of voters in their effort to become executive president. He is whipping up a movement of people ready to commit acts of violence in support of his political push. His whole shtick is that the country is in a complete mess in almost all areas because of the weakness and corruption of previous administrations over a long period, and that he has arrived at last to solve the problems in a flash - he is the only person who can do so - and he will solve them as if by magic, mobilising forces and sending them into action directed by himself, a strong man of exceptional competence at the top. He's like a political shaman and the comparison with Hitler deserves to be made.
Meanwhile, Betfair midprices:
Clinton 1.385 Biden 175 Sanders 235 Kaine 800
Trump 3.875 Ryan 520 Pence 675
The court is set to release Clinton's emails in batches on 14, 21, 28 Oct and 4 Nov. Vice-presidential debate 4 Oct, presidential debates 9 and 19 Oct.
I am sure the Trump campaign isn't so stupid as not to realise that they should mention Benghazi in the coming debates to support their contention that Clinton has already been in public office where she did a crap job - a point Trump fluffed last time, when he asserted that she's been fighting ISIS all her adult life, when she'd already been an adult for more than 30 years when ISIS was founded.
Well it's the end of September and since we watched a Trump rally, it is best to update the total number of rallies conducted by both cadidates per state for the month.
Trump is still doing twice as many rallies as Hillary, that's the only consistent measure of this entire campaign.
Hillary's focus is shifting from Pennsylvania and Ohio towards N.Carolina and Florida. Trump's focus is shifting from Florida and Virginia towards Michigan and Ohio.
Might Larry Sanders hurt LD chances in Witney. He will generate some buzz that will starve, the already starved LDs, of campaign oxygen.
I think that's quite possible.
The Green ground-game here in Witney is beyond pitiful, I'm afraid. Larry Sanders only got 4.4% in Oxford West & Abingdon in GE2015 and Oxford has incumbent Green councillors. Witney has no councillors, no organisation. I can't see him getting 4.4% in Witney.
Meanwhile, our current letterbox tally is 4 LibDem leaflets, 1 Conservative, no others.
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
How does the scale of Lib Dem gains so far this Parliament compare to the scale of losses last time?
Comparing like for like*.
In May 2012, The Lib Dems lost 241 councillors, in May 2016, when most of those seats were fought again, the Lib Dems gained only 45 seats of those 241 councillors that they had lost
*Not quite like for like, but a rough approximation, when you exclude Scotland which saw seats contested in 2012 but not in 2016
So they recovered less than 20% of that which they lost last time, when you compare like for like (roughly).
That'd imply any recovery if it is presaged by these results is still very modest.
If they recovered 20% of the seats they lost in 2015, they'd go from 8 seats to 18.
I don't think, even without boundary changes, that will happen. But i would expect a modest recovery to 10-14 on new boundaries.
Donald Trump is going to lose this election talking about his favourite subject: himself.
I was just thinking almost exactly the same thing myself.
'Unhinged' is right.
The guy is a complete and utter narcissist and it scares the hell out of me how many of the good folk on this blog seem to have been taken in by him. I mean I get the dislike for Hilary but active support for Trump is edging into dangerous territory.
I would not call him Hitler, the only comparison with Hitler is the way and trajectory Trump conducts his campaign is like how Hitler conducted Germany's war effort.
Using the fanatical devotion of his followers, discarding all traditional advise he achieved a ton of early victories, only to become complacent. Surrounding himself with sycophants and unwilling to understand why he was losing after a clumsy attempt to overthrow him.
Trump is neither as brilliant, nor as evil, as Hitler. He's a braggart and a charlatan, running against a hard leftist of dubious probity.
Another example of being divided by a common language: Trump asks his supports to go to polling stations and make sure it's 'on the up and up', meaning above board.
What about registering, they have to register first to vote, although Michigan has same day registration.
According to that Michigan doesn't have same day registration, but 10 other states do. You are right though, he should say "make sure you are registered to vote" as well as "go vote"
Donald Trump is going to lose this election talking about his favourite subject: himself.
I was just thinking almost exactly the same thing myself.
'Unhinged' is right.
The guy is a complete and utter narcissist and it scares the hell out of me how many of the good folk on this blog seem to have been taken in by him. I mean I get the dislike for Hilary but active support for Trump is edging into dangerous territory.
I would not call him Hitler, the only comparison with Hitler is the way and trajectory Trump conducts his campaign is like how Hitler conducted Germany's war effort.
Hitler wasn't brilliant militarily but he didn't believe that major military objectives could be achieved so very very fast just because of his own acumen and willpower, as Trump affects to and probably actually does.
Trump often speaks in a pained way, as if channelling and expressing his audience's pain and misery while giving them a powerful assurance that "we're going to end it". There is no contemporary parallel I'm aware of who does that while enjoying support from 40% of voters in their effort to become executive president. He is whipping up a movement of people ready to commit acts of violence in support of his political push. His whole shtick is that the country is in a complete mess in almost all areas because of the weakness and corruption of previous administrations over a long period, and that he has arrived at last to solve the problems in a flash - he is the only person who can do so - and he will solve them as if by magic, mobilising forces and sending them into action directed by himself, a strong man of exceptional competence at the top. He's like a political shaman and the comparison with Hitler deserves to be made.
Meanwhile, Betfair midprices:
Clinton 1.385 Biden 175 Sanders 235 Kaine 800
Trump 3.875 Ryan 520 Pence 675
The court is set to release Clinton's emails in batches on 14, 21, 28 Oct and 4 Nov. Vice-presidential debate 4 Oct, presidential debates 9 and 19 Oct.
I am sure the Trump campaign isn't so stupid as not to realise that they should mention Benghazi in the coming debates to support their contention that Clinton has already been in public office where she did a crap job - a point Trump fluffed last time, when he asserted that she's been fighting ISIS all her adult life, when she'd already been an adult for more than 30 years when ISIS was founded.
trump may mention benghazi, but he will then spend all 7 days post convention tweeting about some normal person who criticised him. even the most ardent trumper can't say the guy is sane at the moment.(not that i am saying ur a trumper)
Donald Trump is going to lose this election talking about his favourite subject: himself.
I was just thinking almost exactly the same thing myself.
'Unhinged' is right.
The guy is a complete and utter narcissist and it scares the hell out of me how many of the good folk on this blog seem to have been taken in by him. I mean I get the dislike for Hilary but active support for Trump is edging into dangerous territory.
I would not call him Hitler, the only comparison with Hitler is the way and trajectory Trump conducts his campaign is like how Hitler conducted Germany's war effort.
Using the fanatical devotion of his followers, discarding all traditional advise he achieved a ton of early victories, only to become complacent. Surrounding himself with sycophants and unwilling to understand why he was losing after a clumsy attempt to overthrow him.
Trump is neither as brilliant, nor as evil, as Hitler. He's a braggart and a charlatan, running against a hard leftist of dubious probity.
Donald Trump is going to lose this election talking about his favourite subject: himself.
I was just thinking almost exactly the same thing myself.
'Unhinged' is right.
The guy is a complete and utter narcissist and it scares the hell out of me how many of the good folk on this blog seem to have been taken in by him. I mean I get the dislike for Hilary but active support for Trump is edging into dangerous territory.
I would not call him Hitler, the only comparison with Hitler is the way and trajectory Trump conducts his campaign is like how Hitler conducted Germany's war effort.
(snip)
trump may mention benghazi, but he will then spend all 7 days post convention tweeting about some normal person who criticised him. even the most ardent trumper can't say the guy is sane at the moment.(not that i am saying ur a trumper)
I'm strongly anti-Trump. Elements of his behaviour at and since the debate have been crazy. I've an open mind on whether he'll be prevailed upon to get enough grip. He's not an idiot - he got a lot of money from his father as we know, but he then made a lot more, which requires some skill. The question is whether his mental problems will prevent him from learning sufficiently from his errors.
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
How does the scale of Lib Dem gains so far this Parliament compare to the scale of losses last time?
Comparing like for like*.
In May 2012, The Lib Dems lost 241 councillors, in May 2016, when most of those seats were fought again, the Lib Dems gained only 45 seats of those 241 councillors that they had lost
*Not quite like for like, but a rough approximation, when you exclude Scotland which saw seats contested in 2012 but not in 2016
So they recovered less than 20% of that which they lost last time, when you compare like for like (roughly).
That'd imply any recovery if it is presaged by these results is still very modest.
If they recovered 20% of the seats they lost in 2015, they'd go from 8 seats to 18.
I don't think, even without boundary changes, that will happen. But i would expect a modest recovery to 10-14 on new boundaries.
Are you still taking punts on an LD lost deposit in Witney?
Might Larry Sanders hurt LD chances in Witney. He will generate some buzz that will starve, the already starved LDs, of campaign oxygen.
I think that's quite possible.
The Green ground-game here in Witney is beyond pitiful, I'm afraid. Larry Sanders only got 4.4% in Oxford West & Abingdon in GE2015 and Oxford has incumbent Green councillors. Witney has no councillors, no organisation. I can't see him getting 4.4% in Witney.
Meanwhile, our current letterbox tally is 4 LibDem leaflets, 1 Conservative, no others.
I bet there are 100 LibDems canvassing as well... I'd be staggered if they lost their deposit, and would expect the to produce a creditable second position.
As an aside, I think Witney is going to be a very interesting test case of whether there is a LibDem revival. My view:
<5% - Utter disaster, Farron must be under considerable pressure 5-8% - Bad result, LDs threw a lot at it 8-12% - OK result, went forward from the General, but not showing much progress 12-18% - This is the par result. This is what they should be achieving to even hope to get 6-10 seats at the General election 18-24% - Good progress, and almost certainly means that they are a solid second place behind the Conservatives. It also indicates the LD by-election machine is beginning to work again. 24+% - This is a genuinely good result for the LDs, and they can go into future by-elections (such as Richmond Park, if Zac resigns) with a degree of confidence
As an aside, I define a LibDem revival as 10-14% at GE2020, and a similar number of seats.</p>
10-14% of the seats would be more than a revival, it would be a proper miracle
I meant 10-14 seats!
Is that 10-14 taking the reduction to 600 seats into account?
An interesting possible scenario is Trump picking up 6 states compared to Romney in 2012: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada, but Clinton picking up North Carolina.
I have to say Trump is the strangest Republican candidate for President. An atheist who openly lechers after very young girls (including his own daughter) and yet may well win the Presidency.
As a father with a young daughter, I find Trump's views of girls very discomforting.
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
That's true, but there aren't many targets for the LDs from the Cons: the only seats within a 5% swing are Eastbourne, Lewes, Thornbury, Twickenham, Kingston, St Ives, Torbay, Sutton&Cheam, Bath, Yeovil.
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
How does the scale of Lib Dem gains so far this Parliament compare to the scale of losses last time?
Comparing like for like*.
In May 2012, The Lib Dems lost 241 councillors, in May 2016, when most of those seats were fought again, the Lib Dems gained only 45 seats of those 241 councillors that they had lost
*Not quite like for like, but a rough approximation, when you exclude Scotland which saw seats contested in 2012 but not in 2016
So they recovered less than 20% of that which they lost last time, when you compare like for like (roughly).
That'd imply any recovery if it is presaged by these results is still very modest.
If they recovered 20% of the seats they lost in 2015, they'd go from 8 seats to 18.
I don't think, even without boundary changes, that will happen. But i would expect a modest recovery to 10-14 on new boundaries.
Are you still taking punts on an LD lost deposit in Witney?
No. I was taking bets from people who believed the LibDems would lose their deposit in Witney. I offered 10-1.
An interesting possible scenario is Trump picking up 6 states compared to Romney in 2012: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada, but Clinton picking up North Carolina.
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
That's true, but there aren't many targets for the LDs from the Cons: the only seats within a 5% swing are Eastbourne, Lewes, Thornbury, Twickenham, Kingston, St Ives, Torbay, Sutton&Cheam, Bath, Yeovil.
The LDs can hope to gain two Scottish seats from the SNP, maybe two in South West London, and one in the West Country. They'll definitely lose one of their eight to boundary changes. (Although I'd expect them to hold on to the close ones, such as Carshalton.)
So, 8 - 1 = 7 + 2 Scotland + 2 SW London + 1 West Country = 12 seats.
That's my prediction, and unless something dramatic happens, that's what I'm sticking with.
(I think if Zac did resign, the LDs would probably win Richmond Park in a by-election, simply because (a) it would be all about Heathrow, and (b) RP is one of the most pro-Remain constituencies in the country.)
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
How does the scale of Lib Dem gains so far this Parliament compare to the scale of losses last time?
Comparing like for like*.
In May 2012, The Lib Dems lost 241 councillors, in May 2016, when most of those seats were fought again, the Lib Dems gained only 45 seats of those 241 councillors that they had lost
*Not quite like for like, but a rough approximation, when you exclude Scotland which saw seats contested in 2012 but not in 2016
So they recovered less than 20% of that which they lost last time, when you compare like for like (roughly).
That'd imply any recovery if it is presaged by these results is still very modest.
If they recovered 20% of the seats they lost in 2015, they'd go from 8 seats to 18.
I don't think, even without boundary changes, that will happen. But i would expect a modest recovery to 10-14 on new boundaries.
Are you still taking punts on an LD lost deposit in Witney?
No. I was taking bets from people who believed the LibDems would lose their deposit in Witney. I offered 10-1.
I doubt I'll be paying out.
The LDs got 6.8% in 2015, and It will not go below that so should be pretty safe.
Overturning the Cons would be quite a feat, but a solid second place and recognition as the real opposition in the shires would be good.
Re hunter gathering versus materialism, it's a little known fact (unless you've read THE GENESIS SECRET by Tom Knox), that the shift to agriculture in 8000BC (onwards), AKA the Neolithic Revolution, was a catastrophe in many ways: human lives grew shorter, new diseases were contracted from domesticated animals, diets grew POORER, and humans actually shrunk in stature.
I believe modern day Greeks are still smaller, on average, than their hunter gatherer forebears of 10,000BC.
BUT agriculture made it possible for settlements to grow and for populations to increase, thanks to guaranteed food: in one place at one time, every year.
The shock of the fall from hunter-gathering is seen by some as the source of the Expulsion-from-Eden myth (found in many cultures worldwide).
I liked the Genesis Secret. I'm very squeamish but I liked it.
Donald Trump is going to lose this election talking about his favourite subject: himself.
I was just thinking almost exactly the same thing myself.
'Unhinged' is right.
The guy is a complete and utter narcissist and it scares the hell out of me how many of the good folk on this blog seem to have been taken in by him. I mean I get the dislike for Hilary but active support for Trump is edging into dangerous territory.
I would not call him Hitler, the only comparison with Hitler is the way and trajectory Trump conducts his campaign is like how Hitler conducted Germany's war effort.
(snip)
trump may mention benghazi, but he will then spend all 7 days post convention tweeting about some normal person who criticised him. even the most ardent trumper can't say the guy is sane at the moment.(not that i am saying ur a trumper)
I'm strongly anti-Trump. Elements of his behaviour at and since the debate have been crazy. I've an open mind on whether he'll be prevailed upon to get enough grip. He's not an idiot - he got a lot money from his father as we know, but he then made a lot more, which requires some skill. The question is whether his mental problems will prevent him from learning sufficiently from his errors.
but isnt that waiting for a trump pivot to the centre which has been predicted for the last 3 months which has never happened? even the most ardent clinton hater has to admit that trump as president will be the same person attacking a woman for being fat at 3am.
As an aside, I think Witney is going to be a very interesting test case of whether there is a LibDem revival. My view:
<5% - Utter disaster, Farron must be under considerable pressure 5-8% - Bad result, LDs threw a lot at it 8-12% - OK result, went forward from the General, but not showing much progress 12-18% - This is the par result. This is what they should be achieving to even hope to get 6-10 seats at the General election 18-24% - Good progress, and almost certainly means that they are a solid second place behind the Conservatives. It also indicates the LD by-election machine is beginning to work again. 24+% - This is a genuinely good result for the LDs, and they can go into future by-elections (such as Richmond Park, if Zac resigns) with a degree of confidence
As an aside, I define a LibDem revival as 10-14% at GE2020, and a similar number of seats.</p>
An interesting possible scenario is Trump picking up 6 states compared to Romney in 2012: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada, but Clinton picking up North Carolina.
Have you any thoughts on the result in the first state to declare, compared to national vote share?
I think Indiana was the first in 2012, but should be for Trump. What sort of margin would indicate a Trump victory or otherwise?
It would be interesting to set up a spreadsheet. I don't think you can just take the 2012 results as a baseline. There'd have to be adjustments for the fact that Trump will do better than Romney with less-educated areas and vice versa.
foxinsoxuk - the LD candidate Liz Leffman stood in Witney in 2010 and got 23% and she did not stand in the 2015 election. I firmly believe she will do a lot better than 23% this time!
An interesting possible scenario is Trump picking up 6 states compared to Romney in 2012: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada, but Clinton picking up North Carolina.
An interesting possible scenario is Trump picking up 6 states compared to Romney in 2012: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada, but Clinton picking up North Carolina.
Have you any thoughts on the result in the first state to declare, compared to national vote share?
I think Indiana was the first in 2012, but should be for Trump. What sort of margin would indicate a Trump victory or otherwise?
It would be interesting to set up a spreadsheet. I don't think you can just take the 2012 results as a baseline. There'd have to be adjustments for the fact that Trump will do better than Romney with less-educated areas and vice versa.
I would agree. There is the religious fundamentalism factor too. Demographics are a reasonable predictor though.
To be as useful as your Brexit referendum sheet an idea of reporting declarations is needed . In the US the networks seem to call seats while the votes are still being counted, which seems odd to us in the UK.
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
That's true, but there aren't many targets for the LDs from the Cons: the only seats within a 5% swing are Eastbourne, Lewes, Thornbury, Twickenham, Kingston, St Ives, Torbay, Sutton&Cheam, Bath, Yeovil.
The LDs can hope to gain two Scottish seats from the SNP, maybe two in South West London, and one in the West Country. They'll definitely lose one of their eight to boundary changes. (Although I'd expect them to hold on to the close ones, such as Carshalton.)
So, 8 - 1 = 7 + 2 Scotland + 2 SW London + 1 West Country = 12 seats.
That's my prediction, and unless something dramatic happens, that's what I'm sticking with.
(I think if Zac did resign, the LDs would probably win Richmond Park in a by-election, simply because (a) it would be all about Heathrow, and (b) RP is one of the most pro-Remain constituencies in the country.)
There's nothing I would disagree with in that analysis. The LDs will certainly get over 10% of the popular vote now they're free of the Tories. 8% was rock bottom for them.
foxinsoxuk - the LD candidate Liz Leffman stood in Witney in 2010 and got 23% and she did not stand in the 2015 election. I firmly believe she will do a lot better than 23% this time!
I don't know if you've noticed this, but in 2010 the LibDems were polling north of 20% nationally, and now they're polling below 10%.
As the last full month of this presidential contest begins, Hillary Clinton is shifting toward a pure base-turnout strategy.
Trump's support on PB is utterly perplexing. The guy is a straight-up unstable racist. What do you see in him?
There is a subset of PB posters who hate the complacent, Blair/Clinton-ite, middle ground. They want revolution, and they don't particularly care who (so long as they are passably right wing) is leading the charge.
Donald Trump is an insurgent right winger, therefore he must be good.
An interesting possible scenario is Trump picking up 6 states compared to Romney in 2012: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada, but Clinton picking up North Carolina.
Donald Trump is going to lose this election talking about his favourite subject: himself.
I was just thinking almost exactly the same thing myself.
'Unhinged' is right.
The guy is a complete and utter narcissist and it scares the hell out of me how many of the good folk on this blog seem to have been taken in by him. I mean I get the dislike for Hilary but active support for Trump is edging into dangerous territory.
I would not call him Hitler, the only comparison with Hitler is the way and trajectory Trump conducts his campaign is like how Hitler conducted Germany's war effort.
Using the fanatical devotion of his followers, discarding all traditional advise he achieved a ton of early victories, only to become complacent. Surrounding himself with sycophants and unwilling to understand why he was losing after a clumsy attempt to overthrow him.
Trump is neither as brilliant, nor as evil, as Hitler. He's a braggart and a charlatan, running against a hard leftist of dubious probity.
This sounds plausible. But it's what you'd have thought about Hitler in 1932.
Donald Trump is going to lose this election talking about his favourite subject: himself.
I was just thinking almost exactly the same thing myself.
'Unhinged' is right.
The guy is a complete and utter narcissist and it scares the hell out of me how many of the good folk on this blog seem to have been taken in by him. I mean I get the dislike for Hilary but active support for Trump is edging into dangerous territory.
I would not call him Hitler, the only comparison with Hitler is the way and trajectory Trump conducts his campaign is like how Hitler conducted Germany's war effort.
Using the fanatical devotion of his followers, discarding all traditional advise he achieved a ton of early victories, only to become complacent. Surrounding himself with sycophants and unwilling to understand why he was losing after a clumsy attempt to overthrow him.
Trump is neither as brilliant, nor as evil, as Hitler. He's a braggart and a charlatan, running against a hard leftist of dubious probity.
This sounds plausible. But it's what you'd have thought about Hitler in 1932.
Mein Kampf is a little more scary than The Art of the Deal. Mind you, Hitler actually wrote his book.
Donald Trump is going to lose this election talking about his favourite subject: himself.
I was just thinking almost exactly the same thing myself.
'Unhinged' is right.
The guy is a complete and utter narcissist and it scares the hell out of me how many of the good folk on this blog seem to have been taken in by him. I mean I get the dislike for Hilary but active support for Trump is edging into dangerous territory.
I would not call him Hitler, the only comparison with Hitler is the way and trajectory Trump conducts his campaign is like how Hitler conducted Germany's war effort.
Using the fanatical devotion of his followers, discarding all traditional advise he achieved a ton of early victories, only to become complacent. Surrounding himself with sycophants and unwilling to understand why he was losing after a clumsy attempt to overthrow him.
Trump is neither as brilliant, nor as evil, as Hitler. He's a braggart and a charlatan, running against a hard leftist of dubious probity.
This sounds plausible. But it's what you'd have thought about Hitler in 1932.
Mein Kampf is a little more scary than The Art of the Deal. Mind you, Hitler actually wrote his book.
And I doubt Trump is as skilled a painter as Adolf
Donald Trump is going to lose this election talking about his favourite subject: himself.
I was just thinking almost exactly the same thing myself.
'Unhinged' is right.
The guy is a complete and utter narcissist and it scares the hell out of me how many of the good folk on this blog seem to have been taken in by him. I mean I get the dislike for Hilary but active support for Trump is edging into dangerous territory.
I would not call him Hitler, the only comparison with Hitler is the way and trajectory Trump conducts his campaign is like how Hitler conducted Germany's war effort.
Using the fanatical devotion of his followers, discarding all traditional advise he achieved a ton of early victories, only to become complacent. Surrounding himself with sycophants and unwilling to understand why he was losing after a clumsy attempt to overthrow him.
Trump is neither as brilliant, nor as evil, as Hitler. He's a braggart and a charlatan, running against a hard leftist of dubious probity.
This sounds plausible. But it's what you'd have thought about Hitler in 1932.
Mein Kampf is a little more scary than The Art of the Deal. Mind you, Hitler actually wrote his book.
Comments
Also, the Mexican president says Trump did raise the issue of the wall and that he stone walled Trump. So to speak.
Trump has way more dangerous ideas.
Rallies now consume precious preparation time.
There has never been a serious shortage of construction workers, the only thing mass immigration has built is UKIP.
'Unhinged' is right.
Going back and forth.
He should be talking about America and the American People.
Which guides me into a question, which World War does the 2016 election resemble most ?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37526320
Back in a month?
Anyway, I have to leave you all, has been a very depressing day today, a lot of people I've gotten to know, like, and admire have lost their jobs today, and I'm in a right grumpy mood because of it and no amount of winnings compensates for that.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1189818/#Comment_1189818
It showed to me Mrs May lacks class and political nous
In PB tory world anyway
https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/781973028104179713
Against Corbyn, the Conservatives are heading for a blow out, 370 seats or thereabouts.
A government * ought * to be losing ground in local elections. The Opposition ought to be gaining ground (and Labour are not).
Using the fanatical devotion of his followers, discarding all traditional advise he achieved a ton of early victories, only to become complacent.
Surrounding himself with sycophants and unwilling to understand why he was losing after a clumsy attempt to overthrow him.
According to that Michigan doesn't have same day registration, but 10 other states do. You are right though, he should say "make sure you are registered to vote" as well as "go vote"
I could never vote for Trump. But I do strongly believe that the only reason that Hillary hasn't been charged is that she is the Democrat candidate for President and the FBI feel very uncomfortable getting in the mix for the choice of the candidates standing for President.
Trump often speaks in a pained way, as if channelling and expressing his audience's pain and misery while giving them a powerful assurance that "we're going to end it". There is no contemporary parallel I'm aware of who does that while enjoying support from 40% of voters in their effort to become executive president. He is whipping up a movement of people ready to commit acts of violence in support of his political push. His whole shtick is that the country is in a complete mess in almost all areas because of the weakness and corruption of previous administrations over a long period, and that he has arrived at last to solve the problems in a flash - he is the only person who can do so - and he will solve them as if by magic, mobilising forces and sending them into action directed by himself, a strong man of exceptional competence at the top. He's like a political shaman and the comparison with Hitler deserves to be made.
Meanwhile, Betfair midprices:
Clinton 1.385
Biden 175
Sanders 235
Kaine 800
Trump 3.875
Ryan 520
Pence 675
The court is set to release Clinton's emails in batches on 14, 21, 28 Oct and 4 Nov. Vice-presidential debate 4 Oct, presidential debates 9 and 19 Oct.
I am sure the Trump campaign isn't so stupid as not to realise that they should mention Benghazi in the coming debates to support their contention that Clinton has already been in public office where she did a crap job - a point Trump fluffed last time, when he asserted that she's been fighting ISIS all her adult life, when she'd already been an adult for more than 30 years when ISIS was founded.
Hillary:
Florida 3
N.Carolina 2
N.Hampshire 1
Ohio 1
Iowa 1
Missouri 1
Total 9
Trump:
N.Carolina 3
Michigan 3
Florida 2
Virginia 2
Colorado 2
Ohio 2
Pennsylvania 2
N.Hampshire 1
Iowa 1
Wisconsin 1
Total 19
Trump is still doing twice as many rallies as Hillary, that's the only consistent measure of this entire campaign.
Hillary's focus is shifting from Pennsylvania and Ohio towards N.Carolina and Florida.
Trump's focus is shifting from Florida and Virginia towards Michigan and Ohio.
Note that both have N.Carolina close to the top.
A brilliant documentary on the New York gangs brokering peace in the 70's and inventing HipHop.
Unmissable.
Meanwhile, our current letterbox tally is 4 LibDem leaflets, 1 Conservative, no others.
I don't think, even without boundary changes, that will happen. But i would expect a modest recovery to 10-14 on new boundaries.
That would give Clinton 271, Trump 267.
http://www.270towin.com/
I doubt I'll be paying out.
I think Indiana was the first in 2012, but should be for Trump. What sort of margin would indicate a Trump victory or otherwise?
So, 8 - 1 = 7 + 2 Scotland + 2 SW London + 1 West Country = 12 seats.
That's my prediction, and unless something dramatic happens, that's what I'm sticking with.
(I think if Zac did resign, the LDs would probably win Richmond Park in a by-election, simply because (a) it would be all about Heathrow, and (b) RP is one of the most pro-Remain constituencies in the country.)
Overturning the Cons would be quite a feat, but a solid second place and recognition as the real opposition in the shires would be good.
As the last full month of this presidential contest begins, Hillary Clinton is shifting toward a pure base-turnout strategy.
To be as useful as your Brexit referendum sheet an idea of reporting declarations is needed . In the US the networks seem to call seats while the votes are still being counted, which seems odd to us in the UK.
Donald Trump is an insurgent right winger, therefore he must be good.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-37526636
@ElectProject
IA in-person #earlyvote started yesterday. Of the 8,829 people who voted, 60% were Dems, 24% were Reps https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2016/general/AbsenteeCongressional2016.pdf …