It is very hard to square the huge swing to the LibDems in local by elections with their static score of about 8% in the national opinion polls. Real polls versus opinion polls. Theories anyone?
Huge swings in low turnout elections. It can be a sign of activist motivation, or coalescing pro-EU protest votes etc rather than reflective of enthusiasm for voting Lib Dem come a GE.
Still, it is quite impressive.
The increase of the LD council by-election victories started before the referendum.
I think people are more willing to ignore the LD legacy in a national government when voting for local elections.
LD where crap in the Coalition, but in local councils probably less crap.
Because most local government is a case of "what works". There's only so much that one can do differently in potholes and adult social care.
I wouldn't like to be David Willet's brother at this moment in time. Just think those two years of preparation, all that planning, strategy, commentary and talking up our chances......and the poor guy will get scapegoated because it looks like we are in for a drubbing.
He made an idiotic tweet, having already annoyed much of Europe through Brexit the last thing we need to do is annoy the Americans too, especially as they are our most profitable trading partner Anyway it looks like the post Brexit Europe team is a shadow of its former self and the Americans will win
As an aside, I think Witney is going to be a very interesting test case of whether there is a LibDem revival. My view:
<5% - Utter disaster, Farron must be under considerable pressure 5-8% - Bad result, LDs threw a lot at it 8-12% - OK result, went forward from the General, but not showing much progress 12-18% - This is the par result. This is what they should be achieving to even hope to get 6-10 seats at the General election 18-24% - Good progress, and almost certainly means that they are a solid second place behind the Conservatives. It also indicates the LD by-election machine is beginning to work again. 24+% - This is a genuinely good result for the LDs, and they can go into future by-elections (such as Richmond Park, if Zac resigns) with a degree of confidence
As an aside, I define a LibDem revival as 10-14% at GE2020, and a similar number of seats.
Hobbes was right. We need civilising because our default state is primal and makes our lives nasty, brutish and short. Civilising requires a modicum of ability to see things from someone else's perspective. 'Isms' and religions and despots find this quite hard and so find it all too easy to revert to our uncivilised natural state.
But the evidence is that tribal peoples living those short brutish lives close to nature have virtually no mental health or depression issues, a construct of our civilization.
Read an interesting stat - the Bushmen of the Kalahari needed work only 12 hours a week to survive. Where, precisely, has our industrialization got us? (No need to answer. It is only a semi-serious rhetorical question)
It is to a large extent the myth of the noble savage. Actually if you look at the prevalence of depression the map looks like this:
Africa and the Middle East actually have quite high rates, and East Asian countries some of the lowest, despite their famous work ethic.
Hunter Gatherers may well have lower rates of mental illness, but there are confounding factors. In particular mental and physical health are correlated, so people with disabling lung or rheumatic conditions are often anxious or depressed. As people with significant chronic health issues die pretty quickly in hunter-gatherer societies, they do not present with depression. It is a survival bias.
The above link shows Japan The least depressed is Japan, with a diagnosed rate of less than 2.5 percent."
So either suicide is not related to depression .. or the study is flawed..
Suicide is hugely under-reported in most Western countries, because of the stigma attached to it. Instead, a lot of suicides are "death by misadventure". There isn't the same stigmatism in Japan.
It is very hard to square the huge swing to the LibDems in local by elections with their static score of about 8% in the national opinion polls. Real polls versus opinion polls. Theories anyone?
People are happy to vote LD locally, but are not nationally. (Or at least are yet to re-engage with the LDs as a national political force)
So let's leave the largest, deepest free trade agreement in the world...
We're leaving, the question is what do we do from here. Fox is saying free trade with as many countries as possible should be a priority.
Let's just leave him in post for a few years until he realises that the implication of that priority is that we should cancel Brexit.
There is a world outside Europe, and the EU is abysmal at making trade deals with it. We have a bright future.
The EU has trade agreements with 31 countries. That is more than any other trading bloc, or the US. (Although if TTIP and TPP were ratified, which they won't be, sadly, then the US would pass the EU with 36.)
Edit to add: the EU's deal with Ukraine isn't ratified, so it's actually 30.
EFTA is 29, gaining Ukraine, Hong Kong, Canada, and the GCC. But losing Mercosur and a few African countries.
It is very hard to square the huge swing to the LibDems in local by elections with their static score of about 8% in the national opinion polls. Real polls versus opinion polls. Theories anyone?
Many recent local by-elections have been held in places with statistically very high lead content in the water supply.
Are you sure about that ?
Barnesian wanted a theory. So I suggested one!
As theories go, though, I'm assuming that it's a bit unlikely.
So let's leave the largest, deepest free trade agreement in the world...
We're leaving, the question is what do we do from here. Fox is saying free trade with as many countries as possible should be a priority.
Let's just leave him in post for a few years until he realises that the implication of that priority is that we should cancel Brexit.
There is a world outside Europe, and the EU is abysmal at making trade deals with it. We have a bright future.
The EU has trade agreements with 31 countries. That is more than any other trading bloc, or the US. (Although if TTIP and TPP were ratified, which they won't be, sadly, then the US would pass the EU with 36.)
Edit to add: the EU's deal with Ukraine isn't ratified, so it's actually 30.
EFTA is 29, gaining Ukraine, Hong Kong, Canada, and the GCC. But losing Mercosur and a few African countries.
There are various Agreements, Stabilisation and Association Agreements, Partnership and Cooperation Agreements, Interim Agreements, Association Agreement and Additional Protocols, etc. listed here. Only for Ukraine and South Korea is anything described as a Free Trade Agreement (though I understand what Mexico has is basically an FTA).
Countries which do not feature at all include the USA, China, Japan, India, and Brazil, aka the five largest non-European economies.
So let's leave the largest, deepest free trade agreement in the world...
We're leaving, the question is what do we do from here. Fox is saying free trade with as many countries as possible should be a priority.
Let's just leave him in post for a few years until he realises that the implication of that priority is that we should cancel Brexit.
There is a world outside Europe, and the EU is abysmal at making trade deals with it. We have a bright future.
The EU has trade agreements with 31 countries. That is more than any other trading bloc, or the US. (Although if TTIP and TPP were ratified, which they won't be, sadly, then the US would pass the EU with 36.)
Edit to add: the EU's deal with Ukraine isn't ratified, so it's actually 30.
EFTA is 29, gaining Ukraine, Hong Kong, Canada, and the GCC. But losing Mercosur and a few African countries.
There are various Agreements, Stabilisation and Association Agreements, Partnership and Cooperation Agreements, Interim Agreements, Association Agreement and Additional Protocols, etc. listed here. Only for Ukraine and South Korea is anything described as a Free Trade Agreement (though I understand what Mexico has is basically an FTA).
Countries which do not feature at all include the USA, China, Japan, India, and Brazil, aka the five largest non-European economies.
How many agreements are there between the big five?
So let's leave the largest, deepest free trade agreement in the world...
We're leaving, the question is what do we do from here. Fox is saying free trade with as many countries as possible should be a priority.
Let's just leave him in post for a few years until he realises that the implication of that priority is that we should cancel Brexit.
There is a world outside Europe, and the EU is abysmal at making trade deals with it. We have a bright future.
The EU has trade agreements with 31 countries. That is more than any other trading bloc, or the US. (Although if TTIP and TPP were ratified, which they won't be, sadly, then the US would pass the EU with 36.)
Edit to add: the EU's deal with Ukraine isn't ratified, so it's actually 30.
EFTA is 29, gaining Ukraine, Hong Kong, Canada, and the GCC. But losing Mercosur and a few African countries.
There are various Agreements, Stabilisation and Association Agreements, Partnership and Cooperation Agreements, Interim Agreements, Association Agreement and Additional Protocols, etc. listed here. Only for Ukraine and South Korea is anything described as a Free Trade Agreement (though I understand what Mexico has is basically an FTA).
Countries which do not feature at all include the USA, China, Japan, India, and Brazil, aka the five largest non-European economies.
How many agreements are there between the big five?
Off the top of my head, I'm not sure. The US and Japan may have one soon through TPP. Early days but there are encouraging signs vis-a-vis a US-UK deal.
So let's leave the largest, deepest free trade agreement in the world...
We're leaving, the question is what do we do from here. Fox is saying free trade with as many countries as possible should be a priority.
Let's just leave him in post for a few years until he realises that the implication of that priority is that we should cancel Brexit.
There is a world outside Europe, and the EU is abysmal at making trade deals with it. We have a bright future.
The EU has trade agreements with 31 countries. That is more than any other trading bloc, or the US. (Although if TTIP and TPP were ratified, which they won't be, sadly, then the US would pass the EU with 36.)
Edit to add: the EU's deal with Ukraine isn't ratified, so it's actually 30.
EFTA is 29, gaining Ukraine, Hong Kong, Canada, and the GCC. But losing Mercosur and a few African countries.
There are various Agreements, Stabilisation and Association Agreements, Partnership and Cooperation Agreements, Interim Agreements, Association Agreement and Additional Protocols, etc. listed here. Only for Ukraine and South Korea is anything described as a Free Trade Agreement (though I understand what Mexico has is basically an FTA).
Countries which do not feature at all include the USA, China, Japan, India, and Brazil, aka the five largest non-European economies.
How many agreements are there between the big five?
Off the top of my head, I'm not sure. The US and Japan may have one soon through TPP. Early days but there are encouraging signs vis-a-vis a US-UK deal.
Assuming TTIP is not ratified, which is sadly about 90% likelihood right now, the answer is zero.
Herself has just got out of the bath (one hour and thirty-six minutes not quite a record, but close) and she is still chomping her gums about her trip to Sainsbury's this afternoon. Unfilled shelves, no meal deals, no organic milk, no wonder their profits are down etc. etc.
Anyway picking up on the points made about local councils up-thread, several of my chums have stood for and been elected to the district council and all of them said it was a complete waste of time. Any real decisions were made at the county or central government level and planning decisions were always appealed and decided by an unelected government official. None have stood for a second term.
West Sussex County Council have a large staff and sumptuous offices. Aside from ensuring lines are drawn around pot holes in the road (but said potholes are not actually repaired) and making sure libraries are not open when I want to use them I do not know what they all do.
However, I do know of one councillor who is a member of both the County and District Councils, picking up allowances from both and making a fair living out of it.
If it comes down to a council by-election would I walk up the hill to vote, probably not.
I never usually watch Eastenders, but just watched a bit of it and I'm just wondering whether the location has been switched to somewhere like Broxbourne.
I never usually watch Eastenders, but just watched a bit of it and I'm just wondering whether the location has been switched to somewhere like Broxbourne.
As someone who has neither watched Eastenders or ever visited Broxbourne I think I'm going to miss some of the more subtle nuances of your analysis!
But the evidence is that tribal peoples living those short brutish lives close to nature have virtually no mental health or depression issues, a construct of our civilization.
Read an interesting stat - the Bushmen of the Kalahari needed work only 12 hours a week to survive. Where, precisely, has our industrialization got us? (No need to answer. It is only a semi-serious rhetorical question)
It is to a large extent the myth of the noble savage. Actually if you look at
Hunter gatherer societies also tended to be much more violent than modern societies.
:
I think the evidence is dubious. Japan has some of the lowest recorded rates of depression in the world for example.
It is recognised that societies with internal conflict and a high Gini coefficient do have higher rates of mental illness. Hunter gatherers do have less internal societal conflict (though often a lot of external threat) and low rates of social inequality.
It is probably true that free market capitalism increases the rate of mental illness, as does migration whether internal or external.
There are also difficulties in establishing diagnoses for mental illness in many indigenous societies, as there is no gold standard test equivalent to testing for anaemia for example. Mental illnesses manifest differently in different cultures, and the social stigma varies tremendously.
For example British people often seek out medical labels such as Aspergers or addiction, while in other countries these are to be advoided because of the stigma attached, and people prefer to just be seen as individuals rather than labels.
Some years ago I was engaged to a lady from Africa. Her previous husband (white, ultra progressive jerk) abandoned her just after a child died in infancy. Another, surviving child, had severe issues. He basically stole the business she had built up. Then made bizarre, obviously false allegations about her until he was literally led away, wibbling, by doctors.
We were living in one of the posh bits of London - she had built a new business and done very well. One of her friends (ladies-who-lunch, biggest problem deciding which one of her husband's credit cards to abuse) asked her why she hadn't had a nervous breakdown. The reply was "I had children to look after - I hadn't the time".
Herself has just got out of the bath (one hour and thirty-six minutes not quite a record, but close) and she is still chomping her gums about her trip to Sainsbury's this afternoon. Unfilled shelves, no meal deals, no organic milk, no wonder their profits are down etc. etc.
Anyway picking up on the points made about local councils up-thread, several of my chums have stood for and been elected to the district council and all of them said it was a complete waste of time. Any real decisions were made at the county or central government level and planning decisions were always appealed and decided by an unelected government official. None have stood for a second term.
West Sussex County Council have a large staff and sumptuous offices. Aside from ensuring lines are drawn around pot holes in the road (but said potholes are not actually repaired) and making sure libraries are not open when I want to use them I do not know what they all do.
However, I do know of one councillor who is a member of both the County and District Councils, picking up allowances from both and making a fair living out of it.
If it comes down to a council by-election would I walk up the hill to vote, probably not.
" Aside from ensuring lines are drawn around pot holes in the road (but said potholes are not actually repaired) and making sure libraries are not open when I want to use them I do not know what they all do."
And that's even after HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of them have lost their meaningless jobs since 2010 ..... it really does beggar belief!
I never usually watch Eastenders, but just watched a bit of it and I'm just wondering whether the location has been switched to somewhere like Broxbourne.
Talk of local elections is making me think, any predictions for the Scottish Locale Government elections next year?
Looking at the Opinion poles, it would be easy to thing the conservatives could overtake Labour, for second place, as they did this year in the Scottish Parliament elections. But will the incumbency bonus limit that swing?
The elections are held under Single Transferable Vote, So The Screaming Eagle may whish to enlighten us on how that will affect things.
Damn and blast. I was going to write my Saturday piece about the strange disparity between the polls and the local election results, particularly the Con and LD performances. Oh well.
As an aside, I think Witney is going to be a very interesting test case of whether there is a LibDem revival. My view:
<5% - Utter disaster, Farron must be under considerable pressure 5-8% - Bad result, LDs threw a lot at it 8-12% - OK result, went forward from the General, but not showing much progress 12-18% - This is the par result. This is what they should be achieving to even hope to get 6-10 seats at the General election 18-24% - Good progress, and almost certainly means that they are a solid second place behind the Conservatives. It also indicates the LD by-election machine is beginning to work again. 24+% - This is a genuinely good result for the LDs, and they can go into future by-elections (such as Richmond Park, if Zac resigns) with a degree of confidence
As an aside, I define a LibDem revival as 10-14% at GE2020, and a similar number of seats.</p>
10-14% of the seats would be more than a revival, it would be a proper miracle
Re number of councillors , There has been a general reduction in the overall number of councillors in recent years as the electoral commission have looked at various councils . There are around 5% fewer than 10 years ago . Secondly as someone posted earlier there are no longer around 5,000 elected every year . more and more have moved to all out elections every 4 years so including Scotland and Wales ( deferred from last year ) there will be only around 2,500 elected in 2017 similarly in 2016 . 2018 will be boosted by London wide elections to around 4,000 and 2019 will be the bumper year with over 9,000
As an aside, I think Witney is going to be a very interesting test case of whether there is a LibDem revival. My view:
<5% - Utter disaster, Farron must be under considerable pressure 5-8% - Bad result, LDs threw a lot at it 8-12% - OK result, went forward from the General, but not showing much progress 12-18% - This is the par result. This is what they should be achieving to even hope to get 6-10 seats at the General election 18-24% - Good progress, and almost certainly means that they are a solid second place behind the Conservatives. It also indicates the LD by-election machine is beginning to work again. 24+% - This is a genuinely good result for the LDs, and they can go into future by-elections (such as Richmond Park, if Zac resigns) with a degree of confidence
As an aside, I define a LibDem revival as 10-14% at GE2020, and a similar number of seats.</p>
10-14% of the seats would be more than a revival, it would be a proper miracle
Talk of local elections is making me think, any predictions for the Scottish Locale Government elections next year?
Looking at the Opinion poles, it would be easy to thing the conservatives could overtake Labour, for second place, as they did this year in the Scottish Parliament elections. But will the incumbency bonus limit that swing?
The elections are held under Single Transferable Vote, So The Screaming Eagle may whish to enlighten us on how that will affect things.
Friday night TV recommendation - the film "STAR*MEN" was broadcast on BBC4, somewhat cut down in length, as a one hour documentary under the title "Britain's Star Men: Heroes of Astronomy". Currently available on BBC Iplayer.
Four brilliant, genial, and profoundly British septuagenarian astronomers, who met as post-docs in early sixties California during the science-spending splurge at the dawn of the Space Race, reunite for one last road trip around the Western United States. They tour the places where they built the foundations of their stellar academic careers - the top universities they worked at, the famous observatories (then the greatest in the world, now some lying in a sorrier state) where some of the most profound discoveries about the universe were made, and the gruelling hikes through an extraordinary, alien landscape that must have been a world removed from the mundanities of a wartime British childhood. A couple later settled there, even building entire new observatories.
Watched it on the insistence of a relative with a PhD in physics and found it very touching on a human level, and fascinating to see how the frontiers of science advanced over their lifetimes. Unusual to see four people who had such an acute sense both of how important their discoveries had been in the history of science, yet how small they were in the scale of the universe. The four are (quoting Sky at Night magazine for the biographical details):
Roger Griffin, Emeritus Professor of Observational Astronomy at the University of Cambridge, made groundbreaking work in spectroscopy, splitting the light from stars to enable astronomers to discover what stellar objects are made of.
Donald Lynden-Bell CBE, FRS, Emeritus Professor of Astrophysics at the University of Cambridge, produced the theory that the brightest objects in the Universe were discs of gas spinning around black holes, and also discovered the concept of the central galactic supermassive black hole.
Nick Woolf, Emeritus Professor of Astronomy at the University of Arizona, worked on telescopes, pioneering methods that make telescopic images sharper by subtracting atmospheric interference.
Wallace L. Sargent FRS, Ira S. Bowen Professor of Astrophysics at Caltech, discovered observational proof of the Big Bang.
Herself has just got out of the bath (one hour and thirty-six minutes not quite a record, but close) and she is still chomping her gums about her trip to Sainsbury's this afternoon. Unfilled shelves, no meal deals, no organic milk, no wonder their profits are down etc. etc.
Anyway picking up on the points made about local councils up-thread, several of my chums have stood for and been elected to the district council and all of them said it was a complete waste of time. Any real decisions were made at the county or central government level and planning decisions were always appealed and decided by an unelected government official. None have stood for a second term.
West Sussex County Council have a large staff and sumptuous offices. Aside from ensuring lines are drawn around pot holes in the road (but said potholes are not actually repaired) and making sure libraries are not open when I want to use them I do not know what they all do.
However, I do know of one councillor who is a member of both the County and District Councils, picking up allowances from both and making a fair living out of it.
If it comes down to a council by-election would I walk up the hill to vote, probably not.
" Aside from ensuring lines are drawn around pot holes in the road (but said potholes are not actually repaired) and making sure libraries are not open when I want to use them I do not know what they all do."
And that's even after HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of them have lost their meaningless jobs since 2010 ..... it really does beggar belief!
Just suppose one or even two tiers of local government were taken away, how many people would notice. In my area we have the Parish Council, the District Council and the County Council. We could chop the last, two transfer bin collections to the parish set the schools free, and I doubt one person in a hundred would notice the difference.
Anyway picking up on the points made about local councils up-thread, several of my chums have stood for and been elected to the district council and all of them said it was a complete waste of time. Any real decisions were made at the county or central government level and planning decisions were always appealed and decided by an unelected government official. None have stood for a second term. .
It's always struck me as pretty thankless to be a councillor, particularly if you're not a Cabinet member, although some people do it for decades so there must be some sense of fulfillment there.
Although on the planning decisions thing, I don't see the harm in the decisions all being appealed and thus decided by an unelected official - that would only be an issue if the inspectors always overturned the initial decision, and if they're doing that the councillors are clearly not following national or their own local policies, hardly a criticism of democracy, but their own judgment.
Friday night TV recommendation - the film "STAR*MEN" was broadcast on BBC4, somewhat cut down in length, as a one hour documentary under the title "Britain's Star Men: Heroes of Astronomy". Currently available on BBC Iplayer.
Herself has just got out of the bath (one hour and thirty-six minutes not quite a record, but close) and she is still chomping her gums about her trip to Sainsbury's this afternoon. Unfilled shelves, no meal deals, no organic milk, no wonder their profits are down etc. etc.
Anyway picking up on the points made about local councils up-thread, several of my chums have stood for and been elected to the district council and all of them said it was a complete waste of time. Any real decisions were made at the county or central government level and planning decisions were always appealed and decided by an unelected government official. None have stood for a second term.
West Sussex County Council have a large staff and sumptuous offices. Aside from ensuring lines are drawn around pot holes in the road (but said potholes are not actually repaired) and making sure libraries are not open when I want to use them I do not know what they all do.
However, I do know of one councillor who is a member of both the County and District Councils, picking up allowances from both and making a fair living out of it.
If it comes down to a council by-election would I walk up the hill to vote, probably not.
" Aside from ensuring lines are drawn around pot holes in the road (but said potholes are not actually repaired) and making sure libraries are not open when I want to use them I do not know what they all do."
And that's even after HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of them have lost their meaningless jobs since 2010 ..... it really does beggar belief!
Just suppose one or even two tiers of local government were taken away, how many people would notice. In my area we have the Parish Council, the District Council and the County Council. We could chop the last, two transfer bin collections to the parish set the schools free, and I doubt one person in a hundred would notice the difference.
We had district and county merged into Central Bedfordshire. Dosent seem to have caused the End of the World
Anyway picking up on the points made about local councils up-thread, several of my chums have stood for and been elected to the district council and all of them said it was a complete waste of time. Any real decisions were made at the county or central government level and planning decisions were always appealed and decided by an unelected government official. None have stood for a second term. .
It's always struck me as pretty thankless to be a councillor, particularly if you're not a Cabinet member, although some people do it for decades so there must be some sense of fulfillment there.
Although on the planning decisions thing, I don't see the harm in the decisions all being appealed and thus decided by an unelected official - that would only be an issue if the inspectors always overturned the initial decision, and if they're doing that the councillors are clearly not following national or their own local policies, hardly a criticism of democracy, but their own judgment.
The problem is that the councillors have to follow national or regional policies and cannot follow the policies the people who elect them wish them to follow.
If May goes for a free vote on it, does that trigger his resignation?
ie If he said he would resign if Govt goes ahead with it, would a free vote come within that definition?
When I met Zac a week ago, he said he wouldn't discuss a resignation as it was a distraction from the central issue. He said there would be a free vote and said he thought it was sop to people like him. I got the impression he would use that as an excuse not to resign.
I also think that if he does resign, he won't stand again which would put Richmond Park in play. That gives him more leverage.
Edit: I'm meeting the new LibDem PPC for Richmond Park on Sunday so I'll have a chat with her.
Always nice to see some comment about the LDs even if it's the usual negative nonsense from the usual suspects. Yes, eight gains does not represent a fightback but it's progress and in the right direction.
Some ludicrous piffle about giving more power to parish councils from someone who ought to know better. I won't defend the two-tier structure because it's indefensible but in truth it's already collapsing as Councils join forces and collaborate on back office and other functions.
As I recall, West Sussex has bundled up a lot of their services and handed them to Northgate on a long contract which, if it's written as poorly as most local Government contracts, will be excellent for Northgate.
There are far too many Councillors - in Surrey, there are 81 County Councillors and then eleven Borough and District authorities with a few hundred more. Having a single Unitary at County level would create an authority with a population equivalent to Birmingham but it could work if the political will existed.
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
Friday night TV recommendation - the film "STAR*MEN" was broadcast on BBC4, somewhat cut down in length, as a one hour documentary under the title "Britain's Star Men: Heroes of Astronomy". Currently available on BBC Iplayer.
Thanks, will try and watch this tonight!
Let me know what you think. It's a bit of a slow-burner so don't switch off after five minutes. For an "old timers reunite for one last road-trip together" scenario, it feels surprising uncontrived. Though I'm pretty sure the Top Gear Moment was set up.
I'm quite hard to impress these days, but if I see something particularly memorable I like to spread the word. Think it's the best thing I've seen on TV since "Keys To The Castle" (also on BBC4, not currently available on iPlayer) or perhaps something on Storyville.
Anyway picking up on the points made about local councils up-thread, several of my chums have stood for and been elected to the district council and all of them said it was a complete waste of time. Any real decisions were made at the county or central government level and planning decisions were always appealed and decided by an unelected government official. None have stood for a second term. .
It's always struck me as pretty thankless to be a councillor, particularly if you're not a Cabinet member, although some people do it for decades so there must be some sense of fulfillment there.
Although on the planning decisions thing, I don't see the harm in the decisions all being appealed and thus decided by an unelected official - that would only be an issue if the inspectors always overturned the initial decision, and if they're doing that the councillors are clearly not following national or their own local policies, hardly a criticism of democracy, but their own judgment.
The problem is that the councillors have to follow national or regional policies and cannot follow the policies the people who elect them wish them to follow.
Councillors and officers refuse permission to things or add conditions all the time and they aren't overturned on appeal, you can usually mitigate things at least if you're sensible. But if you always ignore national policy, leading to repeated expensive lost appeals, that's being a bad planning councillor, not that being a councillor on those matters is pointless. Even assuming some multi member wards, a committee will mostly be made up of people who are not the local councillor, people who can take the broader view while allowing the local councillor to rail against to their heart's content if they want. Now the rules on predetermination are looser its easier to be against an application and still be able to vote on it too, you don't even have to sit it out.
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
I think that's a possibility, but I think she'll have to start seeming incompetent, repeatedly, before it make a big difference.
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
How does the scale of Lib Dem gains so far this Parliament compare to the scale of losses last time?
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
o_O - I thought all 2010 LD switchers we're going to make EdM PM???
More seriously though, headline poll figures I am seeing suggest that any liberals lost are more than being made up for from UKIP and Labour switchers. They'll provide far more of a marginal firewall and help us take most of the next 40 or so target seats.
Grammar schools, Brexit and hopefully new housing policies are surely all aimed at these voters. Oh, as well as being better for our country as a whole.
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
How does the scale of Lib Dem gains so far this Parliament compare to the scale of losses last time?
You can check out the spreadsheet at the bottom of this page:
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
How does the scale of Lib Dem gains so far this Parliament compare to the scale of losses last time?
Comparing like for like*.
In May 2012, The Lib Dems lost 241 councillors, in May 2016, when most of those seats were fought again, the Lib Dems gained only 45 seats of those 241 councillors that they had lost
*Not quite like for like, but a rough approximation, when you exclude Scotland which saw seats contested in 2012 but not in 2016
I agree there are too many layers of local government . Why Conservatives want to add another one with regional mayors baffles me .
To be fair these aren't new layers as the Mayor simply becomes a member of a Combined Authority's board, they are a method to transfer powers to those authorities without creating a new layer (unlike as happened in London with the GLA).
It was Labour councils that lobbied for the Combined Authorities in the first place and for more power to be devovled to them.
Damn and blast. I was going to write my Saturday piece about the strange disparity between the polls and the local election results, particularly the Con and LD performances. Oh well.
I feel your pain, I had a similar thread mostly written for Sunday on these lines.
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
How does the scale of Lib Dem gains so far this Parliament compare to the scale of losses last time?
You can check out the spreadsheet at the bottom of this page:
Damn and blast. I was going to write my Saturday piece about the strange disparity between the polls and the local election results, particularly the Con and LD performances. Oh well.
I feel your pain, I had a similar thread mostly written for Sunday on these lines.
Damn and blast. I was going to write my Saturday piece about the strange disparity between the polls and the local election results, particularly the Con and LD performances. Oh well.
I feel your pain, I had a similar thread mostly written for Sunday on these lines.
Seems like a blessing in disguise!
I might rework it into a thread about electoral reform, featuring A and V
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
How does the scale of Lib Dem gains so far this Parliament compare to the scale of losses last time?
Comparing like for like*.
In May 2012, The Lib Dems lost 241 councillors, in May 2016, when most of those seats were fought again, the Lib Dems gained only 45 seats of those 241 councillors that they had lost
*Not quite like for like, but a rough approximation, when you exclude Scotland which saw seats contested in 2012 but not in 2016
So they recovered less than 20% of that which they lost last time, when you compare like for like (roughly).
That'd imply any recovery if it is presaged by these results is still very modest.
Damn and blast. I was going to write my Saturday piece about the strange disparity between the polls and the local election results, particularly the Con and LD performances. Oh well.
I feel your pain, I had a similar thread mostly written for Sunday on these lines.
Seems like a blessing in disguise!
I might rework it into a thread about electoral reform, featuring A and V
Albert and Victoria, those well known early psephologists?
In the last Parliament the sheer number of Lib Dem council seat losses was a harbinger of the Lib Dem shellacking in May 2015, so Lib Dem council seat gains in this Parliament might see Lib Dem gains in May 2020.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
How does the scale of Lib Dem gains so far this Parliament compare to the scale of losses last time?
Comparing like for like*.
In May 2012, The Lib Dems lost 241 councillors, in May 2016, when most of those seats were fought again, the Lib Dems gained only 45 seats of those 241 councillors that they had lost
*Not quite like for like, but a rough approximation, when you exclude Scotland which saw seats contested in 2012 but not in 2016
May appears to have been close to the turning point for the LibDems in local government, however; things seem to have improved significantly since. May 2017 is therefore the critical test.
Did his dog have money on the game? He also says he will put money up for investing in players, again surely he has to clear that with the dog....as we know, the dog holds the purse strings in his household.
What the LDs really need is a by-election in a seat they held until 2015.
Not sure how they get one given the usurpers are generally fit and too early in their career to be corrupt, but that would be the ideal.
Considering that the MP has been suspended from the SNP for over a year now, Edinburgh West may eventually see a by-election although if it did it would be a bigger surprise for the Libdems not win back the seat than the SNP to hold it.
1) The graph above shows what's happened in terms of gains and losses. What's happened in terms of change in vote share? 2) It's not unexpected that there is a difference between actual votes for local elections and hypothetical votes for a general election. The former involves deciding which of a range of mostly sane individuals are the best representatives for addressing local councils; the latter involves ensuring Jeremy Corbyn and his team get nowhere near the levers of power. Much of the Con lead in the polls can be explained by people voting for whoever is best placed to keep out Corbynite Labour - the same does not (yet) apply at local level. Nonetheless, encouraging for the LDs though - you can only play the game that is there in front of you.
For those following the ongoing Trump Twitter meltdown Hilary has just accused Trump of choking in Mexico by failing to bring up the wall with the president.
For those following the ongoing Trump Twitter meltdown Hilary has just accused Trump of choking in Mexico by failing to bring up the wall with the president.
I may need to get popcorn.
They must be living under a rock if they don't know about his plan to build it.
This is almost all old news; has nothing else happened in the world to give them a cover story?
That front page does mention something that wasn't widely known, but something I mentioned at PB at the time.
When she became PM, she pretty much sacked a lot of the staff, just like that, and the guys and gals didn't have time to leave properly.
I was fuming, FUMING at the way she treated some people who have loyally served the Tory party for years.
Correction, they have served David Cameron for years.
She is De-Camerooing the Tory party from the functionaries of the previous regime. Happens every time there is a leadership change in any political party, there is plenty of experience of that in Labour with 3 new leaders in the last 9 years.
For those following the ongoing Trump Twitter meltdown Hilary has just accused Trump of choking in Mexico by failing to bring up the wall with the president.
I may need to get popcorn.
They must be living under a rock if they don't know about his plan to build it.
Crickey thats news to me, so Trump is proposing to build a wall?
This is almost all old news; has nothing else happened in the world to give them a cover story?
That front page does mention something that wasn't widely known, but something I mentioned at PB at the time.
When she became PM, she pretty much sacked a lot of the staff, just like that, and the guys and gals didn't have time to leave properly.
I was fuming, FUMING at the way she treated some people who have loyally served the Tory party for years.
Correction, they have served David Cameron for years.
She is De-Camerooing the Tory party from the functionaries of the previous regime. Happens every time there is a leadership change in any political party, there is plenty of experience of that in Labour with 3 new leaders in the last 9 years.
Once again you talk rubbish. These are people who served the Tory party long before Cameron became leader.
For those following the ongoing Trump Twitter meltdown Hilary has just accused Trump of choking in Mexico by failing to bring up the wall with the president.
I may need to get popcorn.
They must be living under a rock if they don't know about his plan to build it.
Crickey thats news to me, so Trump is proposing to build a wall?
I thought it would have been quiet night scandal wise.
Got to laugh at the frank quotes by Redknapp in that article
When The Telegraph contacted Redknapp to put the allegation to him, he admitted becoming aware of his players betting on the match, but said: “Who gives a s--- about that?”
Told it would have been against FA rules, he replied: “Oh would it? Oh, OK. But not at that time I don’t think it was, was it? They weren’t betting on the other team, they were having a bet on their own team.”
For those following the ongoing Trump Twitter meltdown Hilary has just accused Trump of choking in Mexico by failing to bring up the wall with the president.
I may need to get popcorn.
They must be living under a rock if they don't know about his plan to build it.
Crickey thats news to me, so Trump is proposing to build a wall?
Who is going to pay for it ?
Bugger me if I have any idea...I only just heard about this policy.
I thought it would have been quiet night scandal wise.
Got to laugh at the frank quotes by Redknapp in that article
When The Telegraph contacted Redknapp to put the allegation to him, he admitted becoming aware of his players betting on the match, but said: “Who gives a s--- about that?”
Told it would have been against FA rules, he replied: “Oh would it? Oh, OK. But not at that time I don’t think it was, was it? They weren’t betting on the other team, they were having a bet on their own team.”
For those following the ongoing Trump Twitter meltdown Hilary has just accused Trump of choking in Mexico by failing to bring up the wall with the president.
I may need to get popcorn.
They must be living under a rock if they don't know about his plan to build it.
Crickey thats news to me, so Trump is proposing to build a wall?
Who is going to pay for it ?
Mexico is going to pay for it Speedy. 100%, believe me!
For those following the ongoing Trump Twitter meltdown Hilary has just accused Trump of choking in Mexico by failing to bring up the wall with the president.
I may need to get popcorn.
They must be living under a rock if they don't know about his plan to build it.
I'm sure Donald is going to react calmly and rationally. Or maybe he'll start mentioning sex tapes again.
For those following the ongoing Trump Twitter meltdown Hilary has just accused Trump of choking in Mexico by failing to bring up the wall with the president.
I may need to get popcorn.
They must be living under a rock if they don't know about his plan to build it.
I'm sure Donald is going to react calmly and rationally. Or maybe he'll start mentioning sex tapes again.
I'm not sure what Clinton's point is, unless it is to be built in Mexican territory?
For those following the ongoing Trump Twitter meltdown Hilary has just accused Trump of choking in Mexico by failing to bring up the wall with the president.
I may need to get popcorn.
They must be living under a rock if they don't know about his plan to build it.
I'm sure Donald is going to react calmly and rationally. Or maybe he'll start mentioning sex tapes again.
I saw on twitter something along the lines of
Lincoln: The Gettysburg address
JFK: Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country
For those following the ongoing Trump Twitter meltdown Hilary has just accused Trump of choking in Mexico by failing to bring up the wall with the president.
I may need to get popcorn.
They must be living under a rock if they don't know about his plan to build it.
Crickey thats news to me, so Trump is proposing to build a wall?
Who is going to pay for it ?
Bugger me if I have any idea...I only just heard about this policy.
Well we are joking of course, but I think the most simple way is putting a toll booth on the border crossings with Mexico.
For those following the ongoing Trump Twitter meltdown Hilary has just accused Trump of choking in Mexico by failing to bring up the wall with the president.
I may need to get popcorn.
They must be living under a rock if they don't know about his plan to build it.
I'm sure Donald is going to react calmly and rationally. Or maybe he'll start mentioning sex tapes again.
I'm not sure what Clinton's point is, unless it is to be built in Mexican territory?
Clinton's point is to bait Trump into a trap. Like with Miss Universe, it was a nice bait, Trump ate it and now he is losing Nevada by 6.
I thought Trump would learn by now about baiting and traps.
Comments
Anyway it looks like the post Brexit Europe team is a shadow of its former self and the Americans will win
<5% - Utter disaster, Farron must be under considerable pressure
5-8% - Bad result, LDs threw a lot at it
8-12% - OK result, went forward from the General, but not showing much progress
12-18% - This is the par result. This is what they should be achieving to even hope to get 6-10 seats at the General election
18-24% - Good progress, and almost certainly means that they are a solid second place behind the Conservatives. It also indicates the LD by-election machine is beginning to work again.
24+% - This is a genuinely good result for the LDs, and they can go into future by-elections (such as Richmond Park, if Zac resigns) with a degree of confidence
As an aside, I define a LibDem revival as 10-14% at GE2020, and a similar number of seats.
Edit to add: the EU's deal with Ukraine isn't ratified, so it's actually 30.
EFTA is 29, gaining Ukraine, Hong Kong, Canada, and the GCC. But losing Mercosur and a few African countries.
The 2012 PDF report contains a useful breakdown of councillors by party affiliation.
See
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/RP12-27
Scroll down the page to find the link to download the report.
You will see the Liberals low of 923 Councillors in 1978.
And a high for Lib Dems of 5,078 Councillors in 1996.
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7596
As theories go, though, I'm assuming that it's a bit unlikely.
There are various Agreements, Stabilisation and Association Agreements, Partnership and Cooperation Agreements, Interim Agreements, Association Agreement and Additional Protocols, etc. listed here. Only for Ukraine and South Korea is anything described as a Free Trade Agreement (though I understand what Mexico has is basically an FTA).
Countries which do not feature at all include the USA, China, Japan, India, and Brazil, aka the five largest non-European economies.
Not sure how they get one given the usurpers are generally fit and too early in their career to be corrupt, but that would be the ideal.
Anyway picking up on the points made about local councils up-thread, several of my chums have stood for and been elected to the district council and all of them said it was a complete waste of time. Any real decisions were made at the county or central government level and planning decisions were always appealed and decided by an unelected government official. None have stood for a second term.
West Sussex County Council have a large staff and sumptuous offices. Aside from ensuring lines are drawn around pot holes in the road (but said potholes are not actually repaired) and making sure libraries are not open when I want to use them I do not know what they all do.
However, I do know of one councillor who is a member of both the County and District Councils, picking up allowances from both and making a fair living out of it.
If it comes down to a council by-election would I walk up the hill to vote, probably not.
Video tape of Donald Trump's court deposition from a case this June has been released.
We were living in one of the posh bits of London - she had built a new business and done very well. One of her friends (ladies-who-lunch, biggest problem deciding which one of her husband's credit cards to abuse) asked her why she hadn't had a nervous breakdown. The reply was "I had children to look after - I hadn't the time".
And that's even after HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of them have lost their meaningless jobs since 2010 ..... it really does beggar belief!
Looking at the Opinion poles, it would be easy to thing the conservatives could overtake Labour, for second place, as they did this year in the Scottish Parliament elections. But will the incumbency bonus limit that swing?
The elections are held under Single Transferable Vote, So The Screaming Eagle may whish to enlighten us on how that will affect things.
2012 Results:
SNP 425
Lab 394
Con 115
LD 71
Gre 14
Ind 196
If May goes for a free vote on it, does that trigger his resignation?
ie If he said he would resign if Govt goes ahead with it, would a free vote come within that definition?
Secondly as someone posted earlier there are no longer around 5,000 elected every year . more and more have moved to all out elections every 4 years so including Scotland and Wales ( deferred from last year ) there will be only around 2,500 elected in 2017 similarly in 2016 . 2018 will be boosted by London wide elections to around 4,000 and 2019 will be the bumper year with over 9,000
Four brilliant, genial, and profoundly British septuagenarian astronomers, who met as post-docs in early sixties California during the science-spending splurge at the dawn of the Space Race, reunite for one last road trip around the Western United States. They tour the places where they built the foundations of their stellar academic careers - the top universities they worked at, the famous observatories (then the greatest in the world, now some lying in a sorrier state) where some of the most profound discoveries about the universe were made, and the gruelling hikes through an extraordinary, alien landscape that must have been a world removed from the mundanities of a wartime British childhood. A couple later settled there, even building entire new observatories.
Watched it on the insistence of a relative with a PhD in physics and found it very touching on a human level, and fascinating to see how the frontiers of science advanced over their lifetimes. Unusual to see four people who had such an acute sense both of how important their discoveries had been in the history of science, yet how small they were in the scale of the universe. The four are (quoting Sky at Night magazine for the biographical details):
Roger Griffin, Emeritus Professor of Observational Astronomy at the University of Cambridge, made groundbreaking work in spectroscopy, splitting the light from stars to enable astronomers to discover what stellar objects are made of.
Donald Lynden-Bell CBE, FRS, Emeritus Professor of Astrophysics at the University of Cambridge, produced the theory that the brightest objects in the Universe were discs of gas spinning around black holes, and also discovered the concept of the central galactic supermassive black hole.
Nick Woolf, Emeritus Professor of Astronomy at the University of Arizona, worked on telescopes, pioneering methods that make telescopic images sharper by subtracting atmospheric interference.
Wallace L. Sargent FRS, Ira S. Bowen Professor of Astrophysics at Caltech, discovered observational proof of the Big Bang.
Although on the planning decisions thing, I don't see the harm in the decisions all being appealed and thus decided by an unelected official - that would only be an issue if the inspectors always overturned the initial decision, and if they're doing that the councillors are clearly not following national or their own local policies, hardly a criticism of democracy, but their own judgment.
I also think that if he does resign, he won't stand again which would put Richmond Park in play. That gives him more leverage.
Edit: I'm meeting the new LibDem PPC for Richmond Park on Sunday so I'll have a chat with her.
Always nice to see some comment about the LDs even if it's the usual negative nonsense from the usual suspects. Yes, eight gains does not represent a fightback but it's progress and in the right direction.
Some ludicrous piffle about giving more power to parish councils from someone who ought to know better. I won't defend the two-tier structure because it's indefensible but in truth it's already collapsing as Councils join forces and collaborate on back office and other functions.
As I recall, West Sussex has bundled up a lot of their services and handed them to Northgate on a long contract which, if it's written as poorly as most local Government contracts, will be excellent for Northgate.
There are far too many Councillors - in Surrey, there are 81 County Councillors and then eleven Borough and District authorities with a few hundred more. Having a single Unitary at County level would create an authority with a population equivalent to Birmingham but it could work if the political will existed.
I have the feeling Mrs May will not go down well with Lib Dem to Con switchers in the way David Cameron did, she comes across as a bit too authoritarian for their tastes
I'm quite hard to impress these days, but if I see something particularly memorable I like to spread the word. Think it's the best thing I've seen on TV since "Keys To The Castle" (also on BBC4, not currently available on iPlayer) or perhaps something on Storyville.
More seriously though, headline poll figures I am seeing suggest that any liberals lost are more than being made up for from UKIP and Labour switchers. They'll provide far more of a marginal firewall and help us take most of the next 40 or so target seats.
Grammar schools, Brexit and hopefully new housing policies are surely all aimed at these voters. Oh, as well as being better for our country as a whole.
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7596
LDs
2010 3,944
2011 3,104
2012 2,710
2013 2,576
2014 2,235
2015 1,810
2016 1,822
In May 2012, The Lib Dems lost 241 councillors, in May 2016, when most of those seats were fought again, the Lib Dems gained only 45 seats of those 241 councillors that they had lost
*Not quite like for like, but a rough approximation, when you exclude Scotland which saw seats contested in 2012 but not in 2016
The particularly sticking problem dealing with the EU before we leave is emotional politics.
See the Vance-Owen plan, David Owen did not take into account the emotional sensetivities of the Serbian side, so his peace effort failed instantly.
It was Labour councils that lobbied for the Combined Authorities in the first place and for more power to be devovled to them.
That's a 1.1% increase in LD council seats since 2015, a drop in the bucket with the 54% of seats they lost from 2010 till 2015.
Snail's pace, it will take them 40 years to recover at that rate.
That'd imply any recovery if it is presaged by these results is still very modest.
When she became PM, she pretty much sacked a lot of the staff, just like that, and the guys and gals didn't have time to leave properly.
I was fuming, FUMING at the way she treated some people who have loyally served the Tory party for years.
That's nothing compared with the scourge of the Sunday Mail whose Cameroonian editor hates May with a passion.
2) It's not unexpected that there is a difference between actual votes for local elections and hypothetical votes for a general election. The former involves deciding which of a range of mostly sane individuals are the best representatives for addressing local councils; the latter involves ensuring Jeremy Corbyn and his team get nowhere near the levers of power. Much of the Con lead in the polls can be explained by people voting for whoever is best placed to keep out Corbynite Labour - the same does not (yet) apply at local level. Nonetheless, encouraging for the LDs though - you can only play the game that is there in front of you.
"They think he is the Messiah, and just like the Messiah he will get crucified at the next election."
I may need to get popcorn.
She is De-Camerooing the Tory party from the functionaries of the previous regime.
Happens every time there is a leadership change in any political party, there is plenty of experience of that in Labour with 3 new leaders in the last 9 years.
When The Telegraph contacted Redknapp to put the allegation to him, he admitted becoming aware of his players betting on the match, but said: “Who gives a s--- about that?”
Told it would have been against FA rules, he replied: “Oh would it? Oh, OK. But not at that time I don’t think it was, was it? They weren’t betting on the other team, they were having a bet on their own team.”
Lincoln: The Gettysburg address
JFK: Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country
Reagan: Tear down this wall
Trump: Watch this sex tape
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_LyHwmgxUg
Like with Miss Universe, it was a nice bait, Trump ate it and now he is losing Nevada by 6.
I thought Trump would learn by now about baiting and traps.