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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON might have enjoyed double digit leads in the polls but has had a terribe month in local by-elections
Liberal Democrats GAIN Four Lanes on Cornwall from United Kingdom Independence Party
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Zimbabwe is bigger than Germany with less than 10 million and Comrade Bob wont be with us much longer.
Plenty of other places much cheaper than UK that dont speak inglese too.
I can see some of my kids ending up in South Africa if the alternative is eyewatering debt for a miniscule flat.
Brexit gives me some hope that the property market will be upended - for their sake - as does the German bank implosion.
Celtic vs Barca time I fear
The problem with backing Europe to win the Ryder Cup is that if they lose, you lose your money.
Two links, a pre-qualifying ramble about Malaysia and a short-lived poll (runs out in 18 hours):
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/malaysia-pre-qualifying.html
https://twitter.com/MorrisF1/status/781845030336094208
Any replies to the poll would be most helpful.
On-topic: a missed opportunity for a "Lib Dems are Winning Here" headline, surely?
Sound like a replay of the 3rd century BC contest.
A record 12,000 people will be at Tory conference for Mrs May's first as leader about 3 times the number at Labour
Well, arguably Tories are more likely to be retired and have the money. But then again, could be a sign that Lab's new members are all clicktivists and not active members.
I estimate ~124,000 people age 24-26 are missing from the GA voter file. Here is a comparison of GA & NC voter reg freq by year of birth
https://twitter.com/electproject
Will affect Democrats much more.
https://twitter.com/ezlusztig/status/781887557311172608
"Glenis Willmott, a non-Corbyn leader of the Labour Group in the European Parliament, [is] chair of the NEC for the next year."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/11/07/a-stunning-map-of-depression-rates-around-the-world/?0p19G=c
Africa and the Middle East actually have quite high rates, and East Asian countries some of the lowest, despite their famous work ethic.
Hunter Gatherers may well have lower rates of mental illness, but there are confounding factors. In particular mental and physical health are correlated, so people with disabling lung or rheumatic conditions are often anxious or depressed. As people with significant chronic health issues die pretty quickly in hunter-gatherer societies, they do not present with depression. It is a survival bias.
Why the hell was this kind of stuff not brought up in the primaries?
HAHAHAHAHA!
http://www.deathandtaxesmag.com/279091/donald-trump-ivanka-trump-photo-gross/
Sure, tribal life was more brutal. And it is that focussing of the tribal efforts onto surviving (including unthinking violence towards outsiders) that gave purpose, a sense of belonging and the egalitarianism within the group that wards off depression.
But, as I said, the comment was not meant entirely seriously. That said, we are very poor at admitting the systemic failings of Western, materialistic civilization and how grossly unadapted humans evolved for hunter-gathering are for this lifestyle.
And yet Japan is 17th highest in suicide rates in the world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate#List_by_the_World_Health_Organization_.282012.29
So either suicide is not related to depression .. or the study is flawed..
http://cityco.com/news/2015/sep/17/conservative-party-conference-2015/
"And I will go on criticising Socialism, and opposing Socialism because it is bad for Britain – and Britain and Socialism are not the same thing. (...) It’s the Labour Government that have brought us record peace-time taxation. They’ve got the usual Socialist disease – they’ve run out of other people’s money."
It is recognised that societies with internal conflict and a high Gini coefficient do have higher rates of mental illness. Hunter gatherers do have less internal societal conflict (though often a lot of external threat) and low rates of social inequality.
It is probably true that free market capitalism increases the rate of mental illness, as does migration whether internal or external.
There are also difficulties in establishing diagnoses for mental illness in many indigenous societies, as there is no gold standard test equivalent to testing for anaemia for example. Mental illnesses manifest differently in different cultures, and the social stigma varies tremendously.
For example British people often seek out medical labels such as Aspergers or addiction, while in other countries these are to be advoided because of the stigma attached, and people prefer to just be seen as individuals rather than labels.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democrats#Local_elections
The questions for the LD and Labour is how they use that to build a platform for other elections.
In Japan I think suicide is less socially stigmatised than it is in Christian cultures, so it is very possible to have a high suicide rate there of people who are not mentally ill.
The Bushido code does mandate suicide for a variety of offences for example.
Scarcely a year ago, Cameron stood triumphant. Next month he won't even be an MP.
Day before the debate:
Hillary 46.5
Trump 43
3 days after the Debate:
Hillary 46.5
Trump 43
The debate was a wash, but since Hillary was already leading before the debate Trump was the one who needed a win.
I see that Hillary's recovery which occured in the days leading up to the debate is being due to 3rd party voters panicking about Trump and rushing towards Hillary to stop him, the Green party vote seems to have collapsed towards zero in the past 3 weeks.
But Trump attacing Miss Universe seems to hurt him in Nevada quite a bit.
So let's leave the largest, deepest free trade agreement in the world...
Cameron won on the back of scaring people into voting Tory about immigration, europe and scottish nationalists, winning a victory on the back of the Midlands voting more Tory than the South.
He did his best to depress economically and socially non-pensioners and Labour areas, and just after the 2015 GE to try to disenfranchise them.
He lost the referendum and got ousted for all the reasons he won in 2015.
Still, their recent run is quite impressive.
I almost never vote in local council elections, and having run a business locally, I have little respect for them, especially re the planners, when the officers recommend approval, and the committee refuse.
I eventually employed 100+ people, grown from zero over 20 years, could have been so many more but for constant rejections by the planners.
I think people are more willing to ignore the LD legacy in a national government when voting for local elections.
LD where crap in the Coalition, but in local councils probably less crap.
On why "The Polls" dont show any change, I think most voters only think about Politics when theres an Election on or something big happens. The Referendum was Big but not Party based so the Polls are where they were in May 2015, more or less. What it would take to shift them is debatable, a surprise in Witney perhaps ?
Prior years for LDs =
1992 3,728
1993 4,123
1994 4,551
1995 4,942