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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The impact of the 1st debate on WH2016 & the prospects now

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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296

    Interesting Con vs LD by-election in Stow-on-the-Wold today. Could be a portent for Witney (almost next door).

    Is Pitt the even younger standing?
  • Mr. Flashman (deceased), is that article correct? Could've sworn Lammy's repeatedly said Parliament should vote against leaving the EU.

    Mr. Royale, I do like bullshit cosmetics terms. Turbo gel is one of the best.

    Women have lots of great pseudo-scientific tosh instead of Ninja Max Elite Manliness phrases.
  • Interesting Con vs LD by-election in Stow-on-the-Wold today. Could be a portent for Witney (almost next door).

    LibDems have been doing well lately, but to come from 4th and 6.8% to beat the Tories on over 60% doesn't seem feasible. Second place, beating Labour and UKIP, would be good for them and bad for Labour in particular.
  • Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    On razors, I stick to bic and last shaved sunday...
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:


    Sure, but it doesn't require you to buy the £50 genuine cyan toner, you can just get a generic one for a third of the cost.

    True, I was defeated through lack of planning. I just bought generic black from Amazon since I never want to print colour anyway, then right when I needed to print something that day the printer went on strike demanding cyan, and since I didn't have time to get it from Amazon I had to buy it from a shop, which only had the over-priced maker version.

    The alternative would have been to buy black electrical tape and try to trick it, but if that hadn't worked I'd have had to lose another half hour going out to the shop and back, so I folded and paid the ransom.
    Ink Cartridges and Men's Razor blades (particularly Gillette) are the greatest scandals of our time.
    Gillette razor blades are interesting. Every time I buy a pack of blades - £15 for a few strips of metal - I think, you must be joking! Occasionally I try something else but they are not as good, so I go back to Gillette. Marketing 101: you are buying quality of shave, not strips of metal. Despite the sticker shock razor blades aren't a huge part of the household budget, so I acquiesce.
    I may have mentioned this before but the best value in shaving products that I have found is from Bearded Colonel

    www.beardedcolonel.co.uk

    Four ten pounds a month you get a months supply of blades to your door and, by jove, they are damn good razor blades too. Made in Germany, they give me the best shave I have ever had outside a barbers shop.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    Razor blades are a discussion from a bygone era, I thought men all had beards now?
  • TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Authentic Heathite delusions of grandeur and grotesque pomposity. Bye bye fat stuff.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    MaxPB said:

    Razor blades are a discussion from a bygone era, I thought men all had beards now?

    My other half prefers me with a beard. I have a genetic gap after my moustache though, which is annoying.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Ken Clarke is a one-man argument for term limits for MPs. Apparently our votes are worth no more than opinion polls.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    even in the first 100 miles from the coast lots of sane family type americans think nothing of having assault rifles in the bedroom or wandering around with hand guns.

    that's something most brits would find bizarre, yet we claim to know thier mind set.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Razor blades are a discussion from a bygone era, I thought men all had beards now?

    My other half prefers me with a beard. I have a genetic gap after my moustache though, which is annoying.
    I haven't been clean shaved for over a year now, my partner is extremely happy. She says I look like a teenager when I'm clean shaved despite being almost 30.
  • Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    Plenty of Brits living in London make the same mistake about the UK.
  • TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Apparently there are about twenty Europhile Tory MPs. If only some of them choose to rebel, and Labour/SNP/LibDems come up with some Maastricht-like ruse to vote down the legislation, then Theresa could suddenly be transformed into Mrs Major. Could get messy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    edited September 2016
    RoyalBlue said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Ken Clarke is a one-man argument for term limits for MPs. Apparently our votes are worth no more than opinion polls.

    Term limits for PMs should certainly be in place. The USA has it right with their 8 year rule...

    Two parliaments, or 8 years max (Longer of the two) imo.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Sean_F said:



    i'm not expecting the British Empire to be resurrected post-Brexit, but that's way too pessimistic. Real incomes are about two and a half times their level of sixty years ago.

    Yes, comparisons with the past assign a sepia-tinted glory to them that doesn't correspond with reality. But I think Ally was implicitly talking about relative wealth. The two strategic trends of the world economy have for 20 years or more been the rise of Asia (with substantial benefits for the global economy as a whole) and the decline of the Western ability to maintain average living standards far above the lead developing economies. It's the blessing and curse of globalisation. Brexit will IMO accelerate that for Britain, but that doesn't necessarily mean more than a slight dip in our outlook in absolute terms.
    I'm going to guess we are undergoing a great "reconvergence", in that I doubt (though someone may well pop up and prove me wrong!!) there was a huge difference in average standards of living between say India, China, and W Europe in the middle ages. The West happened to work out first how the world was actually laid out and had the ships to stitch it all together before anyone else in trade networks. Add a couple of other handy factors like abundant coal and metals in Europe (I believe China is quite poor in traditional metals per se, and I think Cornwall had more workable tin than the lower 48 of the US for example) and hey presto we took off 250 odd years ago. Now the rest of the world essentially has the same access to everything and knowledge travels at the click of a button rather than by camel train or sailing ship and everyone is catching up fast.

    Now I might argue that plugging ourselves more into that growing world network (which ironically is sort of what the British Empire in its heyday did) is a better prospect than locking ourselves into an increasing sclerotic aging Europe increasing looking like the Austro Hungarian Empire reborn, and others may well disagree. Either way the Empire in a political sense ain't coming back, and it would be bonkers to think otherwise, and I suspect the world's national incomes will be quite a bit more equal (if not at all even) come say 2100.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    edited September 2016
    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    More evidence that IDS was the right choice. Ken's got an unhealthy obsession with the EU. Glad to disappoint him.
  • TGOHF said:

    he will vote against Brexit in the Commons

    What vote in the Commons?

    Rejecting the terms of the exit deal?
  • TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Apparently there are about twenty Europhile Tory MPs. If only some of them choose to rebel, and Labour/SNP/LibDems come up with some Maastricht-like ruse to vote down the legislation, then Theresa could suddenly be transformed into Mrs Major. Could get messy.
    How long are you going to keep the traitor's apron as your profile picture?
  • Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    even in the first 100 miles from the coast lots of sane family type americans think nothing of having assault rifles in the bedroom or wandering around with hand guns.

    that's something most brits would find bizarre, yet we claim to know thier mind set.

    Yep - culturally, socially & politically the US is very different to the UK. We really do have a lot more in common with western Europe (and Australia, NZ and Anglophone eastern Canada).

  • Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    Plenty of Brits living in London make the same mistake about the UK.

    They sure do.

  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:


    Sure, but it doesn't require you to buy the £50 genuine cyan toner, you can just get a generic one for a third of the cost.

    True, I was defeated through lack of planning. I just bought generic black from Amazon since I never want to print colour anyway, then right when I needed to print something that day the printer went on strike demanding cyan, and since I didn't have time to get it from Amazon I had to buy it from a shop, which only had the over-priced maker version.

    The alternative would have been to buy black electrical tape and try to trick it, but if that hadn't worked I'd have had to lose another half hour going out to the shop and back, so I folded and paid the ransom.
    Ink Cartridges and Men's Razor blades (particularly Gillette) are the greatest scandals of our time.
    Gillette razor blades are interesting. Every time I buy a pack of blades - £15 for a few strips of metal - I think, you must be joking! Occasionally I try something else but they are not as good, so I go back to Gillette. Marketing 101: you are buying quality of shave, not strips of metal. Despite the sticker shock razor blades aren't a huge part of the household budget, so I acquiesce.
    I may have mentioned this before but the best value in shaving products that I have found is from Bearded Colonel

    www.beardedcolonel.co.uk

    Four ten pounds a month you get a months supply of blades to your door and, by jove, they are damn good razor blades too. Made in Germany, they give me the best shave I have ever had outside a barbers shop.
    Totally agrer.. I have also sugned up with them.
    Blades easily last a week..
  • Pulpstar said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Ken Clarke is a one-man argument for term limits for MPs. Apparently our votes are worth no more than opinion polls.

    Term limits for PMs should certainly be in place. The USA has it right with their 8 year rule...

    Two parliaments, or 8 years max (Longer of the two) imo.
    But then they swiftly become lame ducks. Our system of regicide works just as well.

    The idea a referendum is an opinion poll would be laughable if it wasn't so sad. Though I think Anna Soubry counts as a second Europhile MP. Struggling to think of any more Tories who wouldn't respect the vote.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    even in the first 100 miles from the coast lots of sane family type americans think nothing of having assault rifles in the bedroom or wandering around with hand guns.

    that's something most brits would find bizarre, yet we claim to know thier mind set.

    Yep - culturally, socially & politically the US is very different to the UK. We really do have a lot more in common with western Europe (and Australia, NZ and Anglophone eastern Canada).

    Australia is the UK in sunshine. Every time I've been it's just like being at home.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    even in the first 100 miles from the coast lots of sane family type americans think nothing of having assault rifles in the bedroom or wandering around with hand guns.

    that's something most brits would find bizarre, yet we claim to know thier mind set.
    We can guess from the opinion polls they do though. American pollsters don't have the same understanding issues!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    even in the first 100 miles from the coast lots of sane family type americans think nothing of having assault rifles in the bedroom or wandering around with hand guns.

    that's something most brits would find bizarre, yet we claim to know thier mind set.

    Yep - culturally, socially & politically the US is very different to the UK. We really do have a lot more in common with western Europe (and Australia, NZ and Anglophone eastern Canada).

    Australia is the UK in sunshine. Every time I've been it's just like being at home.
    Their beer is bloody awful though, not quite as bad as the major American brands but not far off.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    even in the first 100 miles from the coast lots of sane family type americans think nothing of having assault rifles in the bedroom or wandering around with hand guns.

    that's something most brits would find bizarre, yet we claim to know thier mind set.

    Yep - culturally, socially & politically the US is very different to the UK. We really do have a lot more in common with western Europe (and Australia, NZ and Anglophone eastern Canada).

    Australia is the UK in sunshine. Every time I've been it's just like being at home.
    Their beer is bloody awful though, not quite as bad as the major American brands but not far off.
    Stick to the wine (though Toohy's dry is drinkable)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,755

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    Plenty of Brits living in London make the same mistake about the UK.

    They sure do.

    I was struck by the fact that the vote in favour of Remain in the old London County Council area was so massive, 72/28%. While I would have expected that kind of result in boroughs like Islington and Hackney, I thought the result in Conservative-voting boroughs would be more like 50/50, but not at all. Loads of Conservative activists in Wandsworth, Kensington, and Westminster campaigned for Leave, but they were quite out of line with their voters.

    Yet, Outer London only voted 54/46% Remain, which actually makes Outer London much closer to the rest of England in outlook than it does to Inner London.
  • MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    even in the first 100 miles from the coast lots of sane family type americans think nothing of having assault rifles in the bedroom or wandering around with hand guns.

    that's something most brits would find bizarre, yet we claim to know thier mind set.

    Yep - culturally, socially & politically the US is very different to the UK. We really do have a lot more in common with western Europe (and Australia, NZ and Anglophone eastern Canada).

    Australia is the UK in sunshine. Every time I've been it's just like being at home.

    It always seems to me like Brits trying to be Americans, but not quite pulling it off. I much prefer New Zealand and the maritime states in Canada.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    even in the first 100 miles from the coast lots of sane family type americans think nothing of having assault rifles in the bedroom or wandering around with hand guns.

    that's something most brits would find bizarre, yet we claim to know thier mind set.

    Yep - culturally, socially & politically the US is very different to the UK. We really do have a lot more in common with western Europe (and Australia, NZ and Anglophone eastern Canada).

    Australia is the UK in sunshine. Every time I've been it's just like being at home.
    Their beer is bloody awful though, not quite as bad as the major American brands but not far off.
    XXXX and Fosters.

    Sub Carling.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    edited September 2016

    MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    even in the first 100 miles from the coast lots of sane family type americans think nothing of having assault rifles in the bedroom or wandering around with hand guns.

    that's something most brits would find bizarre, yet we claim to know thier mind set.

    Yep - culturally, socially & politically the US is very different to the UK. We really do have a lot more in common with western Europe (and Australia, NZ and Anglophone eastern Canada).

    Australia is the UK in sunshine. Every time I've been it's just like being at home.

    It always seems to me like Brits trying to be Americans, but not quite pulling it off. I much prefer New Zealand and the maritime states in Canada.

    Exactly so. Australians are what happens when Brits try to be American.

    My uncle and auntie live in the Maritimes. Driving around I was surprised at how many homes coflew both the maple leaf and the Union Jack.
  • MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    even in the first 100 miles from the coast lots of sane family type americans think nothing of having assault rifles in the bedroom or wandering around with hand guns.

    that's something most brits would find bizarre, yet we claim to know thier mind set.

    Yep - culturally, socially & politically the US is very different to the UK. We really do have a lot more in common with western Europe (and Australia, NZ and Anglophone eastern Canada).

    Australia is the UK in sunshine. Every time I've been it's just like being at home.
    Their beer is bloody awful though, not quite as bad as the major American brands but not far off.
    Awful and incredibly expensive.
  • TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Apparently there are about twenty Europhile Tory MPs. If only some of them choose to rebel, and Labour/SNP/LibDems come up with some Maastricht-like ruse to vote down the legislation, then Theresa could suddenly be transformed into Mrs Major. Could get messy.
    Except if the courts back prerogative then there won't be a vote in the Commons. Even if there is the simple solution is for May to go to the country and Labour under Corbyn on a frustrate the will of the nation ticket would get annihilated.
  • Mr. Max, ha, I started shaving when I was 12, so even if I looked like a teenager I'd still have stubble :p
  • MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    even in the first 100 miles from the coast lots of sane family type americans think nothing of having assault rifles in the bedroom or wandering around with hand guns.

    that's something most brits would find bizarre, yet we claim to know thier mind set.

    Yep - culturally, socially & politically the US is very different to the UK. We really do have a lot more in common with western Europe (and Australia, NZ and Anglophone eastern Canada).

    Australia is the UK in sunshine. Every time I've been it's just like being at home.

    It always seems to me like Brits trying to be Americans, but not quite pulling it off. I much prefer New Zealand and the maritime states in Canada.

    Exactly so. Australians are what happens when Brits try to be American.

    My uncle and auntie live in the Maritimes. Driving around I was surprised at how many homes coflew both the maple leaf and the Union Jack.

    Yep - it really surprised me too this summer. In Halifax, Nova Scotia, there's a big Union Jack flying atop the old garrison fort that looks down on the city centre and harbour. No Maple Leaf at all.

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Theresa May will not have a problem getting Article 50 through the Commons. There aren't 20 Tory europhile bitter enders, a reasonable number of Labour MPs will vote for it and she's got the DUP too.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Clarke sticking by his principles and representing the views of his constituents.

    If only there were more like him.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Apparently there are about twenty Europhile Tory MPs. If only some of them choose to rebel, and Labour/SNP/LibDems come up with some Maastricht-like ruse to vote down the legislation, then Theresa could suddenly be transformed into Mrs Major. Could get messy.
    I wonder whether Ozzy and his clan will rebel?
  • MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    even in the first 100 miles from the coast lots of sane family type americans think nothing of having assault rifles in the bedroom or wandering around with hand guns.

    that's something most brits would find bizarre, yet we claim to know thier mind set.

    Yep - culturally, socially & politically the US is very different to the UK. We really do have a lot more in common with western Europe (and Australia, NZ and Anglophone eastern Canada).

    Australia is the UK in sunshine. Every time I've been it's just like being at home.

    It always seems to me like Brits trying to be Americans, but not quite pulling it off. I much prefer New Zealand and the maritime states in Canada.

    Exactly so. Australians are what happens when Brits try to be American.

    My uncle and auntie live in the Maritimes. Driving around I was surprised at how many homes coflew both the maple leaf and the Union Jack.

    Yep - it really surprised me too this summer. In Halifax, Nova Scotia, there's a big Union Jack flying atop the old garrison fort that looks down on the city centre and harbour. No Maple Leaf at all.

    The Maple Leaf is contemptible, like an insurance company's logo. A big mistake.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Clarke sticking by his principles and representing the views of his constituents.

    If only there were more like him.
    In the Labour Party you mean?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    timmo said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:


    Sure, but it doesn't require you to buy the £50 genuine cyan toner, you can just get a generic one for a third of the cost.

    True, I was defeated through lack of planning. I just bought generic black from Amazon since I never want to print colour anyway, then right when I needed to print something that day the printer went on strike demanding cyan, and since I didn't have time to get it from Amazon I had to buy it from a shop, which only had the over-priced maker version.

    The alternative would have been to buy black electrical tape and try to trick it, but if that hadn't worked I'd have had to lose another half hour going out to the shop and back, so I folded and paid the ransom.
    Ink Cartridges and Men's Razor blades (particularly Gillette) are the greatest scandals of our time.
    Gillette razor blades are interesting. Every time I buy a pack of blades - £15 for a few strips of metal - I think, you must be joking! Occasionally I try something else but they are not as good, so I go back to Gillette. Marketing 101: you are buying quality of shave, not strips of metal. Despite the sticker shock razor blades aren't a huge part of the household budget, so I acquiesce.
    I may have mentioned this before but the best value in shaving products that I have found is from Bearded Colonel

    www.beardedcolonel.co.uk

    Four ten pounds a month you get a months supply of blades to your door and, by jove, they are damn good razor blades too. Made in Germany, they give me the best shave I have ever had outside a barbers shop.
    Totally agrer.. I have also sugned up with them.
    Blades easily last a week..
    +1 for Bearded Colonel
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,755
    Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Clarke sticking by his principles and representing the views of his constituents.

    If only there were more like him.
    Sticking two fingers up to the voters is not something to be admired.
  • "Jeremy Corbyn’s critics must decide: unity or terminal decline" - Owen Jones

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/29/jeremy-corbyn-critics-must-decide-unity-or-terminal-decline

    Looks like the hard left is already starting to write the post election narrative. If they lose it won't be because of Corbyn and the platform, it's because of disunity and the PLP not backing the leader.

    Tough position to be in if you're a moderate Lab MP. Do you keep making the point that Corbyn is a disaster at a GE, and risk the above narrative being pinned on you? Or keep quiet, and let the general election prove your point once and for all, but risk Labour losing scores of seats including your own?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    Plenty of Brits living in London make the same mistake about the UK.

    They sure do.

    I was struck by the fact that the vote in favour of Remain in the old London County Council area was so massive, 72/28%. While I would have expected that kind of result in boroughs like Islington and Hackney, I thought the result in Conservative-voting boroughs would be more like 50/50, but not at all. Loads of Conservative activists in Wandsworth, Kensington, and Westminster campaigned for Leave, but they were quite out of line with their voters.

    Yet, Outer London only voted 54/46% Remain, which actually makes Outer London much closer to the rest of England in outlook than it does to Inner London.
    Back to the age and education thing again - adjusted for the correlation between voting leave and being older and less educated, London was no more for Leave than anywhere else. It is just that Inner London has a lot of people with degrees and, relatively, fewer pensioners, whereas Outer London has its quota of pensioners and a significant non-university workforce (including all the cabbies and white van men of east London where the biggest leave votes were).
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited September 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    Plenty of Brits living in London make the same mistake about the UK.

    They sure do.

    I was struck by the fact that the vote in favour of Remain in the old London County Council area was so massive, 72/28%. While I would have expected that kind of result in boroughs like Islington and Hackney, I thought the result in Conservative-voting boroughs would be more like 50/50, but not at all. Loads of Conservative activists in Wandsworth, Kensington, and Westminster campaigned for Leave, but they were quite out of line with their voters.

    Yet, Outer London only voted 54/46% Remain, which actually makes Outer London much closer to the rest of England in outlook than it does to Inner London.
    I used to work for someone who thought never going beyond zone 2 (apart from to the airport) was something to boast about. It's not an uncommon attitude amongst i) professional Europeans who moved here for work or ii) those from the Home Counties or beyond who moved to London with an inferiority complex.

    He still thinks we won't end up leaving, poor thing.
  • Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Clarke sticking by his principles and representing the views of his constituents.

    If only there were more like him.
    If every MP represented the views of their constituents it would be a Brexit landslide in the Commons.
  • welshowl said:



    Yes, comparisons with the past assign a sepia-tinted glory to them that doesn't correspond with reality. But I think Ally was implicitly talking about relative wealth. The two strategic trends of the world economy have for 20 years or more been the rise of Asia (with substantial benefits for the global economy as a whole) and the decline of the Western ability to maintain average living standards far above the lead developing economies. It's the blessing and curse of globalisation. Brexit will IMO accelerate that for Britain, but that doesn't necessarily mean more than a slight dip in our outlook in absolute terms.

    I'm going to guess we are undergoing a great "reconvergence", in that I doubt (though someone may well pop up and prove me wrong!!) there was a huge difference in average standards of living between say India, China, and W Europe in the middle ages. The West happened to work out first how the world was actually laid out and had the ships to stitch it all together before anyone else in trade networks. Add a couple of other handy factors like abundant coal and metals in Europe (I believe China is quite poor in traditional metals per se, and I think Cornwall had more workable tin than the lower 48 of the US for example) and hey presto we took off 250 odd years ago. Now the rest of the world essentially has the same access to everything and knowledge travels at the click of a button rather than by camel train or sailing ship and everyone is catching up fast.

    Now I might argue that plugging ourselves more into that growing world network (which ironically is sort of what the British Empire in its heyday did) is a better prospect than locking ourselves into an increasing sclerotic aging Europe increasing looking like the Austro Hungarian Empire reborn, and others may well disagree. Either way the Empire in a political sense ain't coming back, and it would be bonkers to think otherwise, and I suspect the world's national incomes will be quite a bit more equal (if not at all even) come say 2100.
    For those people whose services are being sold on what is really a world market, who work in an industry that "scales" to the size of that market, globalization massively raises the ceiling of what you can earn. Especially if you're in a developing country, your horizons just increased tremendously over the past few decades. A waste disposal operative in Western Europe, though, isn't benefiting from that global market in quite the same way (they may benefit from cheaper prices, from general increases in productivity, but it isn't as if they can do remote waste disposal in Japan at several times their current wage). Globalization can reduce inequality between countries, but raise inequality within them.
  • Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    Plenty of Brits living in London make the same mistake about the UK.

    They sure do.

    I was struck by the fact that the vote in favour of Remain in the old London County Council area was so massive, 72/28%. While I would have expected that kind of result in boroughs like Islington and Hackney, I thought the result in Conservative-voting boroughs would be more like 50/50, but not at all. Loads of Conservative activists in Wandsworth, Kensington, and Westminster campaigned for Leave, but they were quite out of line with their voters.

    Yet, Outer London only voted 54/46% Remain, which actually makes Outer London much closer to the rest of England in outlook than it does to Inner London.

    Yep - makes sense. Inner and outer London are very different, always have been. Inner London is the city (not the City), outer London is the villages that have been swallowed up since the late 19th century.

  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.
    Not at all. I freely admit that I don't want a straight-up racist in charge of a great nation built on immigration, where 30+% of the population is non-white.

    PB TrumperLeavers banging on about the Democrats "rubbing Americans' faces in diversity" (not you personally Alan) shows that it is they that don't understand the United States.
  • @Sean_F Kenneth Clarke is in line with the views of his constituents, who voted decisively to Remain.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,755

    Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Clarke sticking by his principles and representing the views of his constituents.

    If only there were more like him.
    If every MP represented the views of their constituents it would be a Brexit landslide in the Commons.
    For sure, by about 430 by 220.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    Plenty of Brits living in London make the same mistake about the UK.
    Many Brits living outside London have simply no idea about London, what it is like to live there, or anything much about it at all, beyond wild prejudices.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,840
    edited September 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Clarke sticking by his principles and representing the views of his constituents.

    If only there were more like him.
    Sticking two fingers up to the voters is not something to be admired.
    But he's not sticking it up to his own voters is he, so it's not exactly condemnatory either is it? Does it come down to the question of how much weight an MP should give to constituency concerns and national concerns, to constituency vote and national vote?

    Plus it doesn't look like he wil get a chance to vote against it in the Commons so it hardly matters, plus he's retiring anyway. As such, I'm pretty phlegmatic about him being so stubborn. There's no way a majority of MPs would be so bold as to vote against even if he would, should they ever get the chance, so I actually can find the humour in him pointing to the true fact that technically (though certainly not politically) he as an MP is not obliged to go against his own views on the back of a referendum (or 'opinion poll' as he insultingly terms it). Good luck finding a handful of non-retiring MPs to say the same.
  • Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Clarke sticking by his principles and representing the views of his constituents.

    If only there were more like him.
    If every MP represented the views of their constituents it would be a Brexit landslide in the Commons.

    If they did that, on average they'd mostly be 55% Leave and 45% Remain! Not really the basis for a hard Brexit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930
    RoyalBlue said:

    Theresa May will not have a problem getting Article 50 through the Commons. There aren't 20 Tory europhile bitter enders, a reasonable number of Labour MPs will vote for it and she's got the DUP too.

    At least two-thirds of Labour MPs will back Brexit in the Commons, because they have UKIP breathing down their necks, and their primary loyalty is to remaining employed.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Clarke sticking by his principles and representing the views of his constituents.

    If only there were more like him.
    If every MP represented the views of their constituents it would be a Brexit landslide in the Commons.
    For sure, by about 430 by 220.
    Would it really be that big a difference? I wonder by how much would Remain have to have won the popular vote to have been ahead in constituencies?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Apparently there are about twenty Europhile Tory MPs. If only some of them choose to rebel, and Labour/SNP/LibDems come up with some Maastricht-like ruse to vote down the legislation, then Theresa could suddenly be transformed into Mrs Major. Could get messy.
    I have yet to see there is anything like a group of 20 Tory MPs prepared to go against the will of the electorate.
  • Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    Plenty of Brits living in London make the same mistake about the UK.

    They sure do.

    I was struck by the fact that the vote in favour of Remain in the old London County Council area was so massive, 72/28%. While I would have expected that kind of result in boroughs like Islington and Hackney, I thought the result in Conservative-voting boroughs would be more like 50/50, but not at all. Loads of Conservative activists in Wandsworth, Kensington, and Westminster campaigned for Leave, but they were quite out of line with their voters.

    Yet, Outer London only voted 54/46% Remain, which actually makes Outer London much closer to the rest of England in outlook than it does to Inner London.

    Yep - makes sense. Inner and outer London are very different, always have been. Inner London is the city (not the City), outer London is the villages that have been swallowed up since the late 19th century.

    There are a few places which are a bit of each - Hornsey and Putney come to mind.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    CORRECTION

    The last Mitchell poll in Michigan was on Sept.7th not Aug.10th.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_9-9-16.pdf

    So on that metric the first post-Debate State Poll actually shows not much of movement.
    Which is a good thing for Trump.

    5% behind seems quite good for a Republican in Michigan (Romney was 10% behind) but close wins no prizes.
    If it is a close win for Clinton (and just about everyone objective agrees she will be a massive disappointment) then 2020 should really be for the Republicans taking.

    But, somehow, I can't help feel they might muck it up. Yet again.

    No, that's your opinion not "everyone's".

    As unfashionable a view as it is on PBTrump.com I happen to think she'll make a bloody excellent president.

    She may not be the most charismatic candidate but the US is electing a commander-in-chief, not a reality TV star.
  • Mr. (Miss?) Blue, we haven't left yet. Article 50 hasn't been triggered.

    As I've said before, I'll believe we're leaving when we've left.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,755
    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Clarke sticking by his principles and representing the views of his constituents.

    If only there were more like him.
    If every MP represented the views of their constituents it would be a Brexit landslide in the Commons.
    For sure, by about 430 by 220.
    Would it really be that big a difference? I wonder by how much would Remain have to have won the popular vote to have been ahead in constituencies?
    When you have a binary choice, FPTP can deliver very big leads in seats for a small lead in terms of votes.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Robert Kimbell
    Winthrop University poll — South Carolina:

    42% TRUMP
    38% CLINTON

    https://t.co/i7MXTxMYIo
  • Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Clarke sticking by his principles and representing the views of his constituents.

    If only there were more like him.
    If every MP represented the views of their constituents it would be a Brexit landslide in the Commons.

    If they did that, on average they'd mostly be 55% Leave and 45% Remain! Not really the basis for a hard Brexit.
    Hard or soft Brexit wasn't on the ballot paper. We have a straight leave/remain and it'd be nearly 2:1 r to leave in the Commons.
  • Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    Plenty of Brits living in London make the same mistake about the UK.
    Many Brits living outside London have simply no idea about London, what it is like to live there, or anything much about it at all, beyond wild prejudices.
    Perhaps. But good luck with getting the rest of the UK to view London sympathetically above other less fortunate parts.

    For the record, i have lived in London and have worked here for years.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2016
    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Clarke sticking by his principles and representing the views of his constituents.

    If only there were more like him.
    If every MP represented the views of their constituents it would be a Brexit landslide in the Commons.
    For sure, by about 430 by 220.
    Would it really be that big a difference? I wonder by how much would Remain have to have won the popular vote to have been ahead in constituencies?
    Leave would have had a very efficient vote if it was by constituencies with lots of 50-55% constituencies while Remain had a very concentrated vote in Scotland and limited metropolitan areas.

    Though if there'd been a 52% Remain vote under UNS then Remain may have won most constituencies as all those narrow wins for Leave may have been narrow wins for Remain instead.
  • IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    Plenty of Brits living in London make the same mistake about the UK.

    They sure do.

    I was struck by the fact that the vote in favour of Remain in the old London County Council area was so massive, 72/28%. While I would have expected that kind of result in boroughs like Islington and Hackney, I thought the result in Conservative-voting boroughs would be more like 50/50, but not at all. Loads of Conservative activists in Wandsworth, Kensington, and Westminster campaigned for Leave, but they were quite out of line with their voters.

    Yet, Outer London only voted 54/46% Remain, which actually makes Outer London much closer to the rest of England in outlook than it does to Inner London.
    Back to the age and education thing again - adjusted for the correlation between voting leave and being older and less educated, London was no more for Leave than anywhere else. It is just that Inner London has a lot of people with degrees and, relatively, fewer pensioners, whereas Outer London has its quota of pensioners and a significant non-university workforce (including all the cabbies and white van men of east London where the biggest leave votes were).
    Leave voters: old and stupid. Remain voters: bright and intelligent.

    Heard it all before, but very convenient for rationalising your vote based on what you perceive to be your direct economic interest if you don't give a toss about politics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,840

    Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Clarke sticking by his principles and representing the views of his constituents.

    If only there were more like him.
    If every MP represented the views of their constituents it would be a Brexit landslide in the Commons.

    If they did that, on average they'd mostly be 55% Leave and 45% Remain! Not really the basis for a hard Brexit.
    Hard or soft Brexit wasn't on the ballot paper.
    Not that you'd know that from how some are portraying it in the aftermath, but that's winning the peace for you, you have to turn a clear but generic result into one of a more complicated series of options within that generic framework.

  • Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Clarke sticking by his principles and representing the views of his constituents.

    If only there were more like him.
    Sticking two fingers up to the voters is not something to be admired.
    MPs are not delegates from their constituencies. MPs are elected to use their own judgement.

    Hence the need to take care when selecting party candidates.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,840
    I still kind of hoped that Ken Clarke would stay on as an MP, only stand for the LDs in 2020. People have been joking about or accusing him of being a LD in all but name for years anyway, I think it would be hilarious, after 50 years as a Tory MP, to make the switch.
  • Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    CORRECTION

    The last Mitchell poll in Michigan was on Sept.7th not Aug.10th.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_9-9-16.pdf

    So on that metric the first post-Debate State Poll actually shows not much of movement.
    Which is a good thing for Trump.

    5% behind seems quite good for a Republican in Michigan (Romney was 10% behind) but close wins no prizes.
    If it is a close win for Clinton (and just about everyone objective agrees she will be a massive disappointment) then 2020 should really be for the Republicans taking.

    But, somehow, I can't help feel they might muck it up. Yet again.

    No, that's your opinion not "everyone's".

    As unfashionable a view as it is on PBTrump.com I happen to think she'll make a bloody excellent president.

    She may not be the most charismatic candidate but the US is electing a commander-in-chief, not a reality TV star.
    Professional lefties like you are not objective. It's v.telling you object so strongly.

    She will be shit: worse than Obama. Highly unpopular in less than a year.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited September 2016
    I gather there are rumours circulating that the German government may (may not will) bail out Deutsch Bank.

    While if this is true it will be Germany not the EU funding it, I dont see the PIGS and Cyprus noticing the subtle difference. It will seem like one rule for Germany, another for the southern European untermenschen.

    A comparison would be if England stopped Scotland bailing out their banks and forced them to sell state assets to the English at knock down prices or for savers to lose savings, but then we bailed out our own.

    I think that if this does happen the EUs days are numbered and things could get very nasty.

    Thank goodness for Brexit
  • IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    Plenty of Brits living in London make the same mistake about the UK.

    They sure do.

    I was struck by the fact that the vote in favour of Remain in the old London County Council area was so massive, 72/28%. While I would have expected that kind of result in boroughs like Islington and Hackney, I thought the result in Conservative-voting boroughs would be more like 50/50, but not at all. Loads of Conservative activists in Wandsworth, Kensington, and Westminster campaigned for Leave, but they were quite out of line with their voters.

    Yet, Outer London only voted 54/46% Remain, which actually makes Outer London much closer to the rest of England in outlook than it does to Inner London.
    Back to the age and education thing again - adjusted for the correlation between voting leave and being older and less educated, London was no more for Leave than anywhere else. It is just that Inner London has a lot of people with degrees and, relatively, fewer pensioners, whereas Outer London has its quota of pensioners and a significant non-university workforce (including all the cabbies and white van men of east London where the biggest leave votes were).
    Leave voters: old and stupid. Remain voters: bright and intelligent.

    Heard it all before, but very convenient for rationalising your vote based on what you perceive to be your direct economic interest if you don't give a toss about politics.
    I will not make fun of my opponents youth and inexperience.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930

    Leave voters: old and stupid. Remain voters: bright and intelligent.

    Heard it all before, but very convenient for rationalising your vote based on what you perceive to be your direct economic interest if you don't give a toss about politics.

    Come on Mr Royale! All Mr B2 is saying is that there is no special "multicultural, pro-European" gene that gets switched on with a Shoreditch postcode. It's simply that those demographic groups that broke heavily for remain, are heavily over-represented in Inner London areas.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,423
    Sorry to bring up Brexit yet again, but emphatic PoV from the leader of Germany's Association of Industry (BDI) on the Today programme

    "If British decision makers look hard at what they want and what they will get, there is no other option than hard Brexit"

    On the cards all along, I think. Just getting a workable hard Brexit is going to be a massive negotiating effort. I don't see the sense of purpose and the competence for the job in the May team, frankly.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    edited September 2016

    MaxPB said:


    Sure, but it doesn't require you to buy the £50 genuine cyan toner, you can just get a generic one for a third of the cost.

    True, I was defeated through lack of planning. I just bought generic black from Amazon since I never want to print colour anyway, then right when I needed to print something that day the printer went on strike demanding cyan, and since I didn't have time to get it from Amazon I had to buy it from a shop, which only had the over-priced maker version.

    The alternative would have been to buy black electrical tape and try to trick it, but if that hadn't worked I'd have had to lose another half hour going out to the shop and back, so I folded and paid the ransom.
    Ink Cartridges and Men's Razor blades (particularly Gillette) are the greatest scandals of our time.
    I buy the latter from Lidl - yes I know - but they're really cheap, give a better shave and last longer! I get the premium ones with 5 blades and a trimmer - superb!!
  • kle4 said:

    I still kind of hoped that Ken Clarke would stay on as an MP, only stand for the LDs in 2020. People have been joking about or accusing him of being a LD in all but name for years anyway, I think it would be hilarious, after 50 years as a Tory MP, to make the switch.

    Even better if Anna Soubry, Gloria De Piero and Alan Meale also defected. Paint Notts yellow.
  • felix said:

    MaxPB said:


    Sure, but it doesn't require you to buy the £50 genuine cyan toner, you can just get a generic one for a third of the cost.

    True, I was defeated through lack of planning. I just bought generic black from Amazon since I never want to print colour anyway, then right when I needed to print something that day the printer went on strike demanding cyan, and since I didn't have time to get it from Amazon I had to buy it from a shop, which only had the over-priced maker version.

    The alternative would have been to buy black electrical tape and try to trick it, but if that hadn't worked I'd have had to lose another half hour going out to the shop and back, so I folded and paid the ransom.
    Ink Cartridges and Men's Razor blades (particularly Gillette) are the greatest scandals of our time.
    I buy the latter from Lidl - yes I know - but they're really cheap, give a better shave and last longer! I get the premium ones with 5 blades and a trimmer - superb!!
    Thanks for the tip
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    Plenty of Brits living in London make the same mistake about the UK.

    They sure do.

    I was struck by the fact that the vote in favour of Remain in the old London County Council area was so massive, 72/28%. While I would have expected that kind of result in boroughs like Islington and Hackney, I thought the result in Conservative-voting boroughs would be more like 50/50, but not at all. Loads of Conservative activists in Wandsworth, Kensington, and Westminster campaigned for Leave, but they were quite out of line with their voters.

    Yet, Outer London only voted 54/46% Remain, which actually makes Outer London much closer to the rest of England in outlook than it does to Inner London.

    Yep - makes sense. Inner and outer London are very different, always have been. Inner London is the city (not the City), outer London is the villages that have been swallowed up since the late 19th century.

    Not sure I quite agree with that, Mr. Observer. Would you class Battersea, for example, as inner or outer London?

    In the mid-nineteenth century Battersea was still a village with fields and farming (Lavender Hill near Clapham Junction was so named because of the lavender fields that used to exist there). Then came the railways and it became possible to commute and London exploded in size.

    On a side-note the railways and buses used to have cheaper fares for commuters than for off-peak travellers. Commonly known as "workman's returns" they enabled people to travel to work at a discounted price.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Leave voters: old and stupid. Remain voters: bright and intelligent.

    Heard it all before, but very convenient for rationalising your vote based on what you perceive to be your direct economic interest if you don't give a toss about politics.

    Come on Mr Royale! All Mr B2 is saying is that there is no special "multicultural, pro-European" gene that gets switched on with a Shoreditch postcode. It's simply that those demographic groups that broke heavily for remain, are heavily over-represented in Inner London areas.
    Shoreditch does seem to attract them though.

    My idea of hell.
  • Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Clarke sticking by his principles and representing the views of his constituents.

    If only there were more like him.
    If every MP represented the views of their constituents it would be a Brexit landslide in the Commons.

    If they did that, on average they'd mostly be 55% Leave and 45% Remain! Not really the basis for a hard Brexit.
    Hard or soft Brexit wasn't on the ballot paper. We have a straight leave/remain and it'd be nearly 2:1 r to leave in the Commons.

    Of course - but the type of Leave wasn't on the ballot paper either.

  • rcs1000 said:

    Leave voters: old and stupid. Remain voters: bright and intelligent.

    Heard it all before, but very convenient for rationalising your vote based on what you perceive to be your direct economic interest if you don't give a toss about politics.

    Come on Mr Royale! All Mr B2 is saying is that there is no special "multicultural, pro-European" gene that gets switched on with a Shoreditch postcode. It's simply that those demographic groups that broke heavily for remain, are heavily over-represented in Inner London areas.
    Indeed, like it or not Remain voters were on the whole far better educated than Leave.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,755
    rcs1000 said:

    Leave voters: old and stupid. Remain voters: bright and intelligent.

    Heard it all before, but very convenient for rationalising your vote based on what you perceive to be your direct economic interest if you don't give a toss about politics.

    Come on Mr Royale! All Mr B2 is saying is that there is no special "multicultural, pro-European" gene that gets switched on with a Shoreditch postcode. It's simply that those demographic groups that broke heavily for remain, are heavily over-represented in Inner London areas.
    IMO, Inner London was a good deal more pro-Remain than you'd expect, even allowing for age and education.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,016

    I gather there are rumours circulating that the German government may (may not will) bail out Deutsch Bank.

    While if this is true it will be Germany not the EU funding it, I dont see the PIGS and Cyprus noticing the subtle difference. It will seem like one rule for Germany, another for the southern European untermenschen.

    A comparison would be if England stopped Scotland bailing out their banks and forced them to sell state assets to the English at knock down prices or for savers to lose savings, but then we bailed out our own.

    I think that if this does happen the EUs days are numbered and things could get very nasty.

    Thank goodness for Brexit


    There is no subtle difference. EU rules limit the ability of national governments to refinance banks:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-19/eu-state-aid-rules-for-banks-in-crisis-backed-by-top-court

    Requiring "burden sharing" for shareholders seems entirely unexceptionable to me - equity is supposed, after all, to be risk capital. Automatically imposing it on creditors seems more dangerous.
  • rcs1000 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Theresa May will not have a problem getting Article 50 through the Commons. There aren't 20 Tory europhile bitter enders, a reasonable number of Labour MPs will vote for it and she's got the DUP too.

    At least two-thirds of Labour MPs will back Brexit in the Commons, because they have UKIP breathing down their necks, and their primary loyalty is to remaining employed.
    This has been debunked before. There's only about 10 Labour seats where UKIP were anywhere close to Labour's share of the vote in the last election.
  • kle4 said:

    I still kind of hoped that Ken Clarke would stay on as an MP, only stand for the LDs in 2020. People have been joking about or accusing him of being a LD in all but name for years anyway, I think it would be hilarious, after 50 years as a Tory MP, to make the switch.

    Even better if Anna Soubry, Gloria De Piero and Alan Meale also defected. Paint Notts yellow.
    Can't see John Mann following somehow...
  • Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    Plenty of Brits living in London make the same mistake about the UK.

    They sure do.

    I was struck by the fact that the vote in favour of Remain in the old London County Council area was soensington, and Westminster campaigned for Leave, but they were quite out of line with their voters.

    Yet, Outer London only voted 54/46% Remain, which actually makes Outer London much closer to the rest of England in outlook than it does to Inner London.

    Yep - makes sense. Inner and outer London are very different, always have been. Inner London is the city (not the City), outer London is the villages that have been swallowed up since the late 19th century.

    Not sure I quite agree with that, Mr. Observer. Would you class Battersea, for example, as inner or outer London?

    In the mid-nineteenth century Battersea was still a village with fields and farming (Lavender Hill near Clapham Junction was so named because of the lavender fields that used to exist there). Then came the railways and it became possible to commute and London exploded in size.

    On a side-note the railways and buses used to have cheaper fares for commuters than for off-peak travellers. Commonly known as "workman's returns" they enabled people to travel to work at a discounted price.

    Of course, I was generalising. I'd put Battersea in South London and, therefore, bandit country. If forced, I'd say inner, though.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    @Sean_F Kenneth Clarke is in line with the views of his constituents, who voted decisively to Remain.

    Fair point - I personally think we have to make the best of a bad decision now but Ken Clarke is being true to his principles and I cannot see that that is wrong.
  • The Athenians were better educated than the Spartans. Didn't win them the Peloponnesian War, though.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930

    I gather there are rumours circulating that the German government may (may not will) bail out Deutsch Bank.

    While if this is true it will be Germany not the EU funding it, I dont see the PIGS and Cyprus noticing the subtle difference. It will seem like one rule for Germany, another for the southern European untermenschen.

    A comparison would be if England stopped Scotland bailing out their banks and forced them to sell state assets to the English at knock down prices or for savers to lose savings, but then we bailed out our own.

    I think that if this does happen the EUs days are numbered and things could get very nasty.

    Thank goodness for Brexit

    The EUs days have always been numbered.

    But I would like to correct one missaprehension you have. All the bank rescues of the 2008-2014 period were national, rather than EU, in nature. The Irish government bailed out the Irish banks. The Dutch government bailed out the Dutch banks. The Spanish government bailed out the Spanish banks. Etc.

    What has changed is that there are new "state aid" rules that require losses be inflicted on junior creditors as a condition of governments being able to bail out banks. This is a serious issue in Italy, where lots of households own savings bonds issued by their banks and which pay 4-6% (much better you'll get in your average deposit account). Renzi rightly believes that inflicting losses on a large swathe of the population will ensure the victory of the Five Star Movement in the next Italian elections.

    So, I'm not sure your selling state assets analogy is a good one. The only question is whether Renzi: (a) finds a way to bail out the banks without it being called state aid (the Atlante fund is an attempt to do this; (b) decides it is politically expedient to stick two fingers up at the EU; or (c) bails out the banks with Italian government money, and inflicts haircuts on Italian savers.*

    The great irony in the whole Italian banks affair is that the numbers involved are tiny. The capital hole in the Italian banking sector is perhaps €35bn - nothing in the context of the bail outs of Lloyds, RBS, the Spanish or Irish banking sectors... or even (potentially) Deutsche Bank.

    * My money is on (b).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,755

    rcs1000 said:

    Leave voters: old and stupid. Remain voters: bright and intelligent.

    Heard it all before, but very convenient for rationalising your vote based on what you perceive to be your direct economic interest if you don't give a toss about politics.

    Come on Mr Royale! All Mr B2 is saying is that there is no special "multicultural, pro-European" gene that gets switched on with a Shoreditch postcode. It's simply that those demographic groups that broke heavily for remain, are heavily over-represented in Inner London areas.
    Indeed, like it or not Remain voters were on the whole far better educated than Leave.
    The big outlier were students, 81% of whom voted Remain, and I expect university workers must have gone 90% for Remain.

    Among graduates as a whole, 57% voted Remain.
  • Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Clarke sticking by his principles and representing the views of his constituents.

    If only there were more like him.
    If every MP represented the views of their constituents it would be a Brexit landslide in the Commons.

    If they did that, on average they'd mostly be 55% Leave and 45% Remain! Not really the basis for a hard Brexit.
    Hard or soft Brexit wasn't on the ballot paper. We have a straight leave/remain and it'd be nearly 2:1 r to leave in the Commons.

    Of course - but the type of Leave wasn't on the ballot paper either.

    Isn't that exactly what I just said?
  • Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leave voters: old and stupid. Remain voters: bright and intelligent.

    Heard it all before, but very convenient for rationalising your vote based on what you perceive to be your direct economic interest if you don't give a toss about politics.

    Come on Mr Royale! All Mr B2 is saying is that there is no special "multicultural, pro-European" gene that gets switched on with a Shoreditch postcode. It's simply that those demographic groups that broke heavily for remain, are heavily over-represented in Inner London areas.
    Indeed, like it or not Remain voters were on the whole far better educated than Leave.
    The big outlier were students, 81% of whom voted Remain, and I expect university workers must have gone 90% for Remain.

    Among graduates as a whole, 57% voted Remain.
    Among graduates as a whole there was a wide variance I believe. Graduates living in cities with a high ratio of graduates overwhelmingly broke to Remain. Graduates who do not, broke more like their non graduate neighbours.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    felix said:

    MaxPB said:


    Sure, but it doesn't require you to buy the £50 genuine cyan toner, you can just get a generic one for a third of the cost.

    True, I was defeated through lack of planning. I just bought generic black from Amazon since I never want to print colour anyway, then right when I needed to print something that day the printer went on strike demanding cyan, and since I didn't have time to get it from Amazon I had to buy it from a shop, which only had the over-priced maker version.

    The alternative would have been to buy black electrical tape and try to trick it, but if that hadn't worked I'd have had to lose another half hour going out to the shop and back, so I folded and paid the ransom.
    Ink Cartridges and Men's Razor blades (particularly Gillette) are the greatest scandals of our time.
    I buy the latter from Lidl - yes I know - but they're really cheap, give a better shave and last longer! I get the premium ones with 5 blades and a trimmer - superb!!
    Thanks for the tip
    Saved me a small fortune and time spent searching the internet for the cheapest Gillette deals!
  • rcs1000 said:

    Leave voters: old and stupid. Remain voters: bright and intelligent.

    Heard it all before, but very convenient for rationalising your vote based on what you perceive to be your direct economic interest if you don't give a toss about politics.

    Come on Mr Royale! All Mr B2 is saying is that there is no special "multicultural, pro-European" gene that gets switched on with a Shoreditch postcode. It's simply that those demographic groups that broke heavily for remain, are heavily over-represented in Inner London areas.
    Indeed, like it or not Remain voters were on the whole far better educated than Leave.
    But it doesn't follow that the smarter and more highly educated you are the more likely you are to appreciate the glorious benefits of the EU.

    Most Remainers I met were pig ignorant about the EU.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    edited September 2016

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.









    I was struck by the fact that the vote in favour of Remain in the old London County Council area was so massive, 72/28%. (snip) Loads of Conservative activists in Wandsworth, Kensington, and Westminster campaigned for Leave, but they were quite out of line with their voters.

    Yet, Outer London only voted 54/46% Remain, which actually makes Outer London much closer to the rest of England in outlook than it does to Inner London.
    Back to the age and education thing again - adjusted for the correlation between voting leave and being older and less educated, London was no more for Leave than anywhere else. It is just that Inner London has a lot of people with degrees and, relatively, fewer pensioners, whereas Outer London has its quota of pensioners and a significant non-university workforce (including all the cabbies and white van men of east London where the biggest leave votes were).
    Leave voters: old and stupid. Remain voters: bright and intelligent.

    Heard it all before, but very convenient for rationalising your vote based on what you perceive to be your direct economic interest if you don't give a toss about politics.
    1. It wasn't my analysis - the work was done by a reputable academic and his presentation was linked (not by me) and discussed on PB a month or so after the vote.

    2. He started with a full range of socio-economic indicators and looked at the correlations down to council area. He found that the two indicators that correlated most strongly with the variation between one area and another (and indeed together explained most of the variation) were age and the proportion of residents with degrees.

    3. At regional level the model he constructed using the area level correlations to 'predict' the overall result were very close - London more or less on par, as I said. The only region significantly more Remain than the model suggested was Scotland (for political reasons we all understand) and, interestingly, Wales as slightly so. The more Leave areas, as I recall, were the North East (might have been NW?) and West Midlands.

    So this is academic research - not some SeanT like rant based on the last person I spoke to. I can't help that you may not like the findings!

  • kle4 said:

    I still kind of hoped that Ken Clarke would stay on as an MP, only stand for the LDs in 2020. People have been joking about or accusing him of being a LD in all but name for years anyway, I think it would be hilarious, after 50 years as a Tory MP, to make the switch.

    Even better if Anna Soubry, Gloria De Piero and Alan Meale also defected. Paint Notts yellow.
    He's a moderate, liberal Tory who worked for Heath early on. Heseltine's another. Macmillan was another ... far left of New Labour on economic policy. Those still in parliament no doubt keep their heads down for fear of being shot down by Cash, Davies, Redwood or headbangers in their constituency who want to deselect them.

    As Ken Clarke once implied, Nick Clegg has views almost indistinguishable from these left-wing, more moderate Tories. They were in power for 50% of the 1945-79 period, Old Labour for the other 50%. An 'inconvenient truth' is that many aspects of the economy did better then than in the last 37 years.
  • rcs1000 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Theresa May will not have a problem getting Article 50 through the Commons. There aren't 20 Tory europhile bitter enders, a reasonable number of Labour MPs will vote for it and she's got the DUP too.

    At least two-thirds of Labour MPs will back Brexit in the Commons, because they have UKIP breathing down their necks, and their primary loyalty is to remaining employed.
    This has been debunked before. There's only about 10 Labour seats where UKIP were anywhere close to Labour's share of the vote in the last election.
    That's like saying there's only a couple of seats where the SNP were breathing down Labour's neck last Parliament.

    With Corbyn and with Leave having won and with many Labour seats having voted Leave if Labour decide on a "die in the ditch for Remain" policy then die they will do.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    edited September 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Leave voters: old and stupid. Remain voters: bright and intelligent.

    Heard it all before, but very convenient for rationalising your vote based on what you perceive to be your direct economic interest if you don't give a toss about politics.

    Come on Mr Royale! All Mr B2 is saying is that there is no special "multicultural, pro-European" gene that gets switched on with a Shoreditch postcode. It's simply that those demographic groups that broke heavily for remain, are heavily over-represented in Inner London areas.
    Exactly. (mostly Inner) London has a young educated population, which analysis suggests was no more or less pro-Remain than young educated people in the rest of the UK.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334

    MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:

    The Newsweek front cover is pretty strong stuff.

    Trump owned company doing business with Cuba when sanctions were in place.

    He was just ahead of the curve. Obama trades with all of Cuba.
    Yes we have now learned that nothing whatsoever can spell bad news for Trump.

    >>>Only on PB.
    I dont really care who wins WH16 theyre both crap candidates, but atm PB has lots of people conjecturing their wishes on US voters - yourself included - frankly the cultural divide means few of us really know how US voters will react.

    Brexit appears to have taught you nothing.

    I think we can say how some US voters will react. The great unknown is that America most Europeans - even the ones who go to the US a lot - rarely see much of: basically 100 miles inland from the East and West Coasts and 50 miles south of the Great Lakes. It's another country and most Americans live there.

    even in the first 100 miles from the coast lots of sane family type americans think nothing of having assault rifles in the bedroom or wandering around with hand guns.

    that's something most brits would find bizarre, yet we claim to know thier mind set.

    Yep - culturally, socially & politically the US is very different to the UK. We really do have a lot more in common with western Europe (and Australia, NZ and Anglophone eastern Canada).

    Australia is the UK in sunshine. Every time I've been it's just like being at home.
    Their beer is bloody awful though, not quite as bad as the major American brands but not far off.
    Boags is an excellent beer but can only be found in Victoria, Tasmania and a few trendy bars in Sydney. Plus I hear Brewdog are opening up a brewery there so it won't be long until decent beer is available nationally.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    TGOHF said:

    Is Ken Clarke the last EUrophile Conservative MP ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/715622/Ken-Clarke-Theresa-May-Brexit-politics-government-Boris-Johnson-Liam-Fox-David-Davis

    "He is the first MP to announce that he will vote against Brexit in the Commons, saying: “The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable.”

    Mr Clarke also lambasted David Cameron for calling the EU Referendum, saying the former Prime Minister will “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”."

    Apparently there are about twenty Europhile Tory MPs. If only some of them choose to rebel, and Labour/SNP/LibDems come up with some Maastricht-like ruse to vote down the legislation, then Theresa could suddenly be transformed into Mrs Major. Could get messy.
    I have yet to see there is anything like a group of 20 Tory MPs prepared to go against the will of the electorate.
    I would not approve of the waste of time by voting against A50.

    But surely by that logic every opposition should vote with the government all the time as it would be the "will of the electorate ".
This discussion has been closed.