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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The impact of the 1st debate on WH2016 & the prospects now

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  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    except you cant vote twice in reality... or 1 million times in 10 second.

    what a moroon
  • Jonathan said:

    AndyJS said:

    Jonathan said:



    Britain can not and should not be Singapore.

    Why should not?
    My friends who live there paint an unpleasant picture. After a while the superficial clean, entrepreneurial and prosperous image gives way to a much darker authoritarian and repressed society.

    It is not something to aim for. We are better off as we are.
    I totally agree with this.

    The main lesson we should take from Singapore is that it proves that the Western approach to nation building is wrong and is based on a false image of ourselves. Lee Kuan Yew understood Britain's virtues very well but placed the rule of law above democracy as being the overriding determinant of success. Instead we've gone into places that don't have the rule of law and chosen universal suffrage and democratic elections as the starting point rather than the final destination.
  • Jonathan said:

    AndyJS said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    It is galling for lefties that the obvious result of their working classes voting for Brexit is a much more rightwing, free-wheeling, aggressive and expansionist Tory-max 18th century Britain, with lower corporate taxes, massive investment in infrastructure where it helps (southern England), the stoning of suspicious foreigners on Cheapside, an end to *restraint* on bankers bonuses, big fuck off nuclear subs to menace Belgium with incineration, plentiful gin, and so forth

    Actually on economic policy May is slightly to the left of Cameron and Osborne, having largely abandoned austerity and promised workers on business boards. She is certainly no fan of the excesses of capitalism
    The forces of Brexit are enormous, and will force her to the right. There is only one way for Britain to prosper post-Brexit, and it is by heading for the total free trading, Singapore option
    That won't really happen, Singapore is a city state of 5 million, the UK is a nation of 60 million. Your vision would work for an independent London but not for the Midlands and North too. State spending will still be needed for them and there will at least be some tariffs levied on goods and services traded between the EU and the UK even if May manages to get some single market access because of the free movement controls she will impose
    Nope. Need to think big.

    Post-Brexit Britain needs to be Singapore times 10. Literally, in many ways.

    THE most advanced, competitive and capitalist economy on the planet.

    Singapore's GDP per capita is $60-80,000 or thereabouts (depending on how you measure it, and against our $40,000). If we can come close to them we would have the biggest and strongest overall economy in Europe, rivalling Germany.

    Britain can not and should not be Singapore.
    Why should not?
    My friends who live there paint an unpleasant picture. After a while the superficial clean, entrepreneurial and prosperous image gives way to a much darker authoritarian and repressed society.

    It is not something to aim for. We are better off as we are.
    What is it about the Brexit hard-Right and turning Britain into some far-eastern sweat shop? Delingpole was over at the Speccie the other day, saying how much he'd like Britain to become the new Hong Kong with OAPs forced to do back-braking labour on the streets. (Even Fraser Nelson sounded queasy with it all.)
  • Jonathan said:

    I've had a really good experience at Heathrow. Term 2 is brilliant. Miles ahead of Gatwick.

    I flew into T2 last month, it was wonderful. T5 and new T2 have seriously improved LHR as a travelling experience.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,148

    AnneJGP said:

    Just watching the repeat of "Rome the Eternal City" on BBC4 which is dealing with Constantine converting Rome from paganism to Christianity. Emphasis was laid on Christ being transformed from a criminal executed on the cross to being an emperor installed on a throne in heaven, and the ragged disciples being turned into senators in splendid togas. And it struck me that this is what Tony Blair did to the old Labour party. The signs are that New Labour will not last as long as Christianity.

    I'm starting to think that Mr Blair's emphasis on triangulation, getting elected, staying on message & so on relied so heavily on the Labour 'brand' that Labour party members lost sight of the philosophy that produced the brand values.

    Then Mr Brown followed that up by decapitating all the tall poppies who might have been a threat to his position, and who carried the memory of moderate Labour philosophy.

    Thus we now have a generation of devoted Labour people - MPs and members - who cannot articulate what their branch of Labour stands for. It's been taken for granted for so long that they cannot now remember what it was.folk

    Hardly surprising they're helpless in the face of people like Mr Corbyn who does know what he wants Labour to stand for.
    equally can anyone suggest what it is that the tories stand for? Brexit (whatever that means)? paraphrasing Charles shortly after marrying Diana..

    suspect the majority of labour-esque folk (least those of a certain age) want a John Smith position. i.e. back to the 90s rather than bac to the 80s

    back to the future 3 is rubbish, mind
    Well, since I'm not a member of either party (although left-leaning), I can only make a stab at describing the difference as I see it.

    Seems to me the Conservatives are a pragmatic party - whatever they think will work to the advantage of the people they care about (your choice whether that's bankers or the country or whatever).

    Seems to me that Labour people are more idealists: they want the greatest good of the greatest number, and clearly the left-behind people far outnumber the bankers or whoever.

    A major difficulty for Labour arises with the scope of the 'greatest number'. Where do you draw the line? If you are most concerned with the abject poor of the entire world, clearly the left-behind people in this country won't come very high in your priorities.

    Seems to me that this is why outsiders get the impression that far-left people don't care about the poor of their own country.

    Conservatives recognise that people usually care most about those closest to them, so the scope of their focus is much more circumscribed than Labour's.

  • Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    Hinckley Point, Heathrow runway and HS 2.

    All very big infrastructure projects and all good for UK PLC (ex EU)

    Problem is they will never work and will be expensive monuments to a failed government.

    We are already seeing the seeds being planted for why the Tories will be ousted from power, we just don't know when.

    Strategic mistakes take time to reveal the extent of the disaster, and we all know that those projects will end up in disaster.
    Hinckley. Maybe

    HS2, hmmm, really doubt it, we will all get used to it

    Heathrow, ridiculous. It's one of THE most successful airports in the world with two runways and five terminals, it will be even better with more space.

    http://your.heathrow.com/heathrow-wins-hat-trick-skytrax-awards-record-year/
    I see expanding an unworkable airport as simply expanding the size of the problem.

    It's better to have multiple smaller airports rather that a single large one just for reasons of traffic alone, not mentioning security.

    Heathrow is a perfect example of an airport that has gotten too big to operate properly.

    Constructing those large white elephant projects is something we used to joke about the Soviets (or even Mandelson with his Millenium Dome).
    Now we can joke about the Tories squandering almost 100 billion pounds on 3 projects of dubious nature.
    Heathrow works fine for those of us up North and HS2 is also for us up North. The idea of multiple smaller airports is just madness - Heathrow needs to become the Worlds largest hub airport
    It's because Heathrow and HS2 are not in Conwy.

    "Worlds largest hub airport" and the Soviets had the worlds largest computer chip.
    Size does not directly lead to better results, and Heathrow is already too large to operate properly.

    You can build the world's largest airport but the traffic of people trying to go to and from the airport will still make it the world's worst airport from customer service.

    And customer service in airports is the biggest problem with air travel, you already have to go through all those security checks and to battle with traffic to get to the airport in time, from a customer point of view airports are hell.
    All airports are a nightmare but they are necessary and the airports that offers the widest choice of flights and connections are needed. I have travelled through many airports including LA, San Francisco, Vancouver, Sydney, Tokyo, Beijing, Hong Kong, and Singapore and Heathrow is no better or worse than most of them
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100



    All airports are a nightmare but they are necessary and the airports that offers the widest choice of flights and connections are needed. I have travelled through many airports including LA, San Francisco, Vancouver, Sydney, Tokyo, Beijing, Hong Kong, and Singapore and Heathrow is no better or worse than most of them

    The person who designs a functional airport will deserve a statue the size of the Liberty one.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    AnneJGP said:


    Well, since I'm not a member of either party (although left-leaning), I can only make a stab at describing the difference as I see it.

    Seems to me the Conservatives are a pragmatic party - whatever they think will work to the advantage of the people they care about (your choice whether that's bankers or the country or whatever).

    Seems to me that Labour people are more idealists: they want the greatest good of the greatest number, and clearly the left-behind people far outnumber the bankers or whoever.

    A major difficulty for Labour arises with the scope of the 'greatest number'. Where do you draw the line? If you are most concerned with the abject poor of the entire world, clearly the left-behind people in this country won't come very high in your priorities.

    Seems to me that this is why outsiders get the impression that far-left people don't care about the poor of their own country.

    Conservatives recognise that people usually care most about those closest to them, so the scope of their focus is much more circumscribed than Labour's.

    Your analysis certainly makes the Conservatives seem the party more fit for government. Maybe because that is my own view ... :)
  • Speedy said:



    All airports are a nightmare but they are necessary and the airports that offers the widest choice of flights and connections are needed. I have travelled through many airports including LA, San Francisco, Vancouver, Sydney, Tokyo, Beijing, Hong Kong, and Singapore and Heathrow is no better or worse than most of them

    The person who designs a functional airport will deserve a statue the size of the Liberty one.
    I would agree with you on that - flying is one of life's more unpleasant experiences but the end result puts all the stress to bed
  • SeanT said:

    Loser. Coward. Think big. Think BREXIT.

    FFS this is Britain, home of the English language, the Industrial Revolution and the world's largest empire. This isn't some pissant nation, with all due respect this isn't even Germany. We truly are exceptional.

    Have a little faith in your amazing homeland.

    Heck we could even lead the negotiation of a new EU treaty to preserve the next few decades of peace and prosperity in Europe!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''The UK will never compete with Switzerland and the US on capitalism, let alone Singapore or the UAE. ''

    Hang on Cassandra. Its possible (indeed probable?) that England could get a seriously right wing government at some juncture after boundary changes and the labour meltdown.

    Seriously right wing.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I'm back because we got the first post-Debate State Poll:

    Michigan, Mitchell (last one from August 10)

    Hillary 49 +2
    Trump 44 +2

    Hillary 46 +1
    Trump 41 +2
    Johnson 8 +1
    Stein 1 nc

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_9-28-16.pdf

    So Trump is back to early August as I suspected, Hillary approaching 50 in Michigan means that state is now off limits.
  • SeanT said:

    Loser. Coward. Think big. Think BREXIT.

    FFS this is Britain, home of the English language, the Industrial Revolution and the world's largest empire. This isn't some pissant nation, with all due respect this isn't even Germany. We truly are exceptional.

    Have a little faith in your amazing homeland.

    Heck we could even lead the negotiation of a new EU treaty to preserve the next few decades of peace and prosperity in Europe!
    Think that is Sarkozy's idea for when and if he wins in France 2017 and to include the UK with a new settlement
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Speedy said:

    I'm back because we got the first post-Debate State Poll:

    Michigan, Mitchell (last one from August 10)

    Hillary 49 +2
    Trump 44 +2

    Hillary 46 +1
    Trump 41 +2
    Johnson 8 +1
    Stein 1 nc

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_9-28-16.pdf

    So Trump is back to early August as I suspected, Hillary approaching 50 in Michigan means that state is now off limits.

    cool. hope that trend increases overall
  • It seems a new runway (or two) is needed and the choice can only be Heathrow or Gatwick. A decision must be made and it is right to choose the best one irrespective of local political problems.

    Hm, perhaps. But doing what you think is "right", regardless of political expediency, leads to Corbynism.
  • AnneJGP said:



    Well, since I'm not a member of either party (although left-leaning), I can only make a stab at describing the difference as I see it.

    Seems to me the Conservatives are a pragmatic party - whatever they think will work to the advantage of the people they care about (your choice whether that's bankers or the country or whatever).


    tho the tories have given us a referendm and brexit. nothing pragmatic about it. unless the people they really care about are UKIP and Bill Cash
  • It seems a new runway (or two) is needed and the choice can only be Heathrow or Gatwick. A decision must be made and it is right to choose the best one irrespective of local political problems.

    Hm, perhaps. But doing what you think is "right", regardless of political expediency, leads to Corbynism.
    In extreme measures but Heathrow is a one off
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Speedy said:

    I'm back because we got the first post-Debate State Poll:

    Michigan, Mitchell (last one from August 10)

    Hillary 49 +2
    Trump 44 +2

    Hillary 46 +1
    Trump 41 +2
    Johnson 8 +1
    Stein 1 nc

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_9-28-16.pdf

    So Trump is back to early August as I suspected, Hillary approaching 50 in Michigan means that state is now off limits.

    Trump has actually cut Hillary's lead in that state in a 4 way race and the 5 point lead Hillary has overall is very close the the 4.3% lead she has in the state in the RCP average
  • England's all-time leading Test wicket-taker James Anderson has been ruled out of the Test series against Bangladesh with a shoulder injury.
  • SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Hinckley Point, Heathrow runway and HS 2.

    All very big infrastructure projects and all good for UK PLC (ex EU)

    Problem s take time to reveal the extent of the disaster, and we all know that those projects will end up in disaster.
    Hinckley. Maybe

    HS2, hmmm, really doubt it, we will all get used to it

    Heathrow, ridiculous. It's one of THE most successful airports in the world with two runways and five terminals, it will be even better with more space.

    http://your.heathrow.com/heathrow-wins-hat-trick-skytrax-awards-record-year/
    I see expanding elson with his Millenium Dome).
    Now we can joke about the Tories squandering almost 100 billion pounds on 3 projects of dubious nature.
    Heathrow works fine for those of us up North and HS2 is also for us up North. The idea of multiple smaller airports is just madness - Heathrow needs to become the Worlds largest hub airport
    It's bw airports are hell.
    All airports are a nightmare but they are necessary and the airports that offers the widest choice of flights and connections are needed. I have travelled through many airports including LA, San Francisco, Vancouver, Sydney, Tokyo, Beijing, Hong Kong, and Singapore and Heathrow is no better or worse than most of them
    I travel through airports FOR MY JOB.

    From being one of the most frustrating global hubs 15 years ago, Heathrow is now one of the best, it really is. It has incredibly fast connections with central London (15 minutes on the Express - very few world airports can match that) it has hugely improved security and customs. The lounges and shopping are excellent. Delays have been minimised.

    Hence the reason it now wins awards, and sees itself in the global top ten. Etc.

    http://www.worldairportawards.com/awards/world_airport_rating.html

    See here. Number 8.

    Note: Amsterdam at 13, Paris CDG at 33, New York JFK at 59.

    The Olympics taught us to build on success, so we build at Heathrow. Argument ends.

    Agree completely
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    It is galling for lefties that the obvious result of their working classes voting for Brexit is a much more rightwing, free-wheeling, aggressive and expansionist Tory-max 18th century Britain, with lower corporate taxes, massive investment in infrastructure where it helps (southern England), the stoning of suspicious foreigners on Cheapside, an end to *restraint* on bankers bonuses, big fuck off nuclear subs to menace Belgium with incineration, plentiful gin, and so forth

    Actually on economic policy May is slightly to the left of Cameron and Osborne, having largely abandoned austerity and promised workers on business boards. She is certainly no fan of the excesses of capitalism
    The forces of Brexit are enormous, and will force her to the right. There is only one way for Britain to prosper post-Brexit, and it is by heading for the total free trading, Singapore option
    That won't r traded between the EU and the UK even if May manages to get some single market access because of the free movement controls she will impose
    Nope. Need to think big.

    Post-Brexit Britain needs to be Singapore times 10. Literally, in many ways.

    THE most advanced, competitive and capitalist economy on the planet.

    Singapore's GDP per capita is $60-80,000 or thereabouts (depending on how you measure it, and against our $40,000). If we can come close to them we would have the biggest and strongest overall economy in Europe, rivalling Germany.

    The UK will never compete with Switzerland and the US on capitalism, let alone Singapore or the UAE. Nor will we ever have a chance of competing with Singapore on gdp per capita beyon
    Loser. Coward. Think big. Think BREXIT.

    FFS this is Britain, home of the English language, the Industrial Revolution and the world's largest empire. This isn't some pissant nation, with all due respect this isn't even Germany. We truly are exceptional.

    Have a little faith in your amazing homeland.
    I am not a coward, I just don't particularly want to live in either Singapore or the UAE or Cuba or North Korea otherwise I would move there! We were exceptional 100 years ago when we were still a, perhaps the, largest superpower on the planet. Now we are a middle-ranking power and culturally, socially and economically we probably have more in common with 21st century Germany than Singapore
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    taffys said:

    ''The UK will never compete with Switzerland and the US on capitalism, let alone Singapore or the UAE. ''

    Hang on Cassandra. Its possible (indeed probable?) that England could get a seriously right wing government at some juncture after boundary changes and the labour meltdown.

    Seriously right wing.

    On immigration and hanging maybe, not on privatising the NHS and slashing tax for investment bankers!
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited September 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    I'm back because we got the first post-Debate State Poll:

    Michigan, Mitchell (last one from August 10)

    Hillary 49 +2
    Trump 44 +2

    Hillary 46 +1
    Trump 41 +2
    Johnson 8 +1
    Stein 1 nc

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_9-28-16.pdf

    So Trump is back to early August as I suspected, Hillary approaching 50 in Michigan means that state is now off limits.

    Trump has actually cut Hillary's lead in that state in a 4 way race and the 5 point lead Hillary has overall is very close the the 4.3% lead she has in the state in the RCP average
    However THIS may be of interest

    "Eight in ten (80%) of likely voters watched the debate, and of the debate watchers Clinton leads 50%-44%%. She leads by one percent (42%-41%) among non-watchers."

    (Although we have no pre-polling of the group that watched the debate of course so be careful)
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,148
    MTimT said:

    AnneJGP said:


    Well, since I'm not a member of either party (although left-leaning), I can only make a stab at describing the difference as I see it.

    Seems to me the Conservatives are a pragmatic party - whatever they think will work to the advantage of the people they care about (your choice whether that's bankers or the country or whatever).

    Seems to me that Labour people are more idealists: they want the greatest good of the greatest number, and clearly the left-behind people far outnumber the bankers or whoever.

    A major difficulty for Labour arises with the scope of the 'greatest number'. Where do you draw the line? If you are most concerned with the abject poor of the entire world, clearly the left-behind people in this country won't come very high in your priorities.

    Seems to me that this is why outsiders get the impression that far-left people don't care about the poor of their own country.

    Conservatives recognise that people usually care most about those closest to them, so the scope of their focus is much more circumscribed than Labour's.

    Your analysis certainly makes the Conservatives seem the party more fit for government. Maybe because that is my own view ... :)
    Certainly at this moment I can't disagree with that!

    But it's a serious dilemma.

    There is a vast number of people who want to come & live in Europe because of the far higher standard of living. We have no ordained right to that higher standard of living, it's the luck of the draw. Yet if we were to accept everyone who wants to come here, the European standard of living would drop off a precipice.

    I believe in that old adage about 'live more simply, that others may simply live'. I am grateful for Mr Cameron's emphasis on maintaining the International Development part of the budget.

    But I'm inclined to think that political parties should restrict their primary scope to the people of their own country - their electors, in fact.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,148

    AnneJGP said:



    Well, since I'm not a member of either party (although left-leaning), I can only make a stab at describing the difference as I see it.

    Seems to me the Conservatives are a pragmatic party - whatever they think will work to the advantage of the people they care about (your choice whether that's bankers or the country or whatever).


    tho the tories have given us a referendm and brexit. nothing pragmatic about it. unless the people they really care about are UKIP and Bill Cash
    It was pragmatism that pushed Mr Cameron into promising the referendum: he wanted to be re-elected and saw that as a necessary component in the manifesto.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    I'm back because we got the first post-Debate State Poll:

    Michigan, Mitchell (last one from August 10)

    Hillary 49 +2
    Trump 44 +2

    Hillary 46 +1
    Trump 41 +2
    Johnson 8 +1
    Stein 1 nc

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_9-28-16.pdf

    So Trump is back to early August as I suspected, Hillary approaching 50 in Michigan means that state is now off limits.

    Trump has actually cut Hillary's lead in that state in a 4 way race and the 5 point lead Hillary has overall is very close the the 4.3% lead she has in the state in the RCP average
    However THIS may be of interest

    "Eight in ten (80%) of likely voters watched the debate, and of the debate watchers Clinton leads 50%-44%%. She leads by one percent (42%-41%) among non-watchers."

    (Although we have no pre-polling of the group that watched the debate of course so be careful)
    So if Trump steps up his performance a little in the second debate he will be right back in contention
  • AnneJGP said:

    AnneJGP said:



    Well, since I'm not a member of either party (although left-leaning), I can only make a stab at describing the difference as I see it.

    Seems to me the Conservatives are a pragmatic party - whatever they think will work to the advantage of the people they care about (your choice whether that's bankers or the country or whatever).


    tho the tories have given us a referendm and brexit. nothing pragmatic about it. unless the people they really care about are UKIP and Bill Cash
    It was pragmatism that pushed Mr Cameron into promising the referendum: he wanted to be re-elected and saw that as a necessary component in the manifesto.
    It was hubris more than pragmatism. He thought he would win easily and bury the awkward squad of Eurosceptics. At the time he first proposed it, making it an in-out referendum rather than a referendum on a particular treaty or aspect of the EU was seen as a way to tip the balance in favour of In because he thought that when push came to shove people would support the status quo.

    The plan might have worked if the referendum had happened during the coalition years and before the Trotskyite takeover of Labour.
  • AnneJGP said:

    AnneJGP said:



    Well, since I'm not a member of either party (although left-leaning), I can only make a stab at describing the difference as I see it.

    Seems to me the Conservatives are a pragmatic party - whatever they think will work to the advantage of the people they care about (your choice whether that's bankers or the country or whatever).


    tho the tories have given us a referendm and brexit. nothing pragmatic about it. unless the people they really care about are UKIP and Bill Cash
    It was pragmatism that pushed Mr Cameron into promising the referendum: he wanted to be re-elected and saw that as a necessary component in the manifesto.
    It was hubris more than pragmatism. He thought he would win easily and bury the awkward squad of Eurosceptics. At the time he first proposed it, making it an in-out referendum rather than a referendum on a particular treaty or aspect of the EU was seen as a way to tip the balance in favour of In because he thought that when push came to shove people would support the status quo.

    The plan might have worked if the referendum had happened during the coalition years and before the Trotskyite takeover of Labour.
    I'm not so sure. The British people have been looking for a chance to vote against the EU Project since probably Maastricht.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2016
    CORRECTION

    The last Mitchell poll in Michigan was on Sept.7th not Aug.10th.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_9-9-16.pdf

    So on that metric the first post-Debate State Poll actually shows not much of movement.
    Which is a good thing for Trump.
  • AnnaAnna Posts: 59
    I've seen several articles over the past month discussing the disparity in attendances at Clinton and Trump rallies. The latest claims that yesterday Trump turned away more people from his rally than Clinton has had attendees since 1 August ( http://ijr.com/2016/09/703186-we-fact-checked-claim-that-people-turned-away-from-trumps-fl-rally-total-hillarys-rally-attendance/ - )

    Does anyone know if there are any historic datasets on past election rally attendances? I know Obama had some huge rallies in '08.
  • AnneJGP said:

    AnneJGP said:



    Well, since I'm not a member of either party (although left-leaning), I can only make a stab at describing the difference as I see it.

    Seems to me the Conservatives are a pragmatic party - whatever they think will work to the advantage of the people they care about (your choice whether that's bankers or the country or whatever).


    tho the tories have given us a referendm and brexit. nothing pragmatic about it. unless the people they really care about are UKIP and Bill Cash
    It was pragmatism that pushed Mr Cameron into promising the referendum: he wanted to be re-elected and saw that as a necessary component in the manifesto.
    It was hubris more than pragmatism. He thought he would win easily and bury the awkward squad of Eurosceptics. At the time he first proposed it, making it an in-out referendum rather than a referendum on a particular treaty or aspect of the EU was seen as a way to tip the balance in favour of In because he thought that when push came to shove people would support the status quo.

    The plan might have worked if the referendum had happened during the coalition years and before the Trotskyite takeover of Labour.
    I'm not so sure. The British people have been looking for a chance to vote against the EU Project since probably Maastricht.
    William Hague's crushing defeat in 2001 suggests that isn't true.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    PPP is going to release a bunch of post debate polls, tonight at MSNBC (Maddow's show) and tommorow.

    PPP is hinting at a Hillary lead of 7 points.

    https://twitter.com/maddow/status/781269157883080704
    https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/781272822744219648
    https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/781274291241361408
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:


    The UK will never compete with Switzerland and the US on capitalism, let alone Singapore or the UAE. Nor will we ever have a chance of competing with Singapore on gdp per capita beyond inner London. We are not a socialist country but nor are we a laissez-faire capitalist country either, we are a middle of the road nation with the most socialist healthcare system in the developed world. I also doubt we will ever overtake Germany, they have more strength in depth in terms of manufacturing as well as a strong financial sector in Frankfurt if not as strong as that of London (though post Brexit they may catch up). May is looking to promote smaller and medium sized businesses as Germany does and have more selection in education as Germany does, she may be a British Merkel, she will not be a British Lee Kuan Yew

    Loser. Coward. Think big. Think BREXIT.
    FFS this is Britain, home of the English language, the Industrial Revolution and the world's largest empire. This isn't some pissant nation, with all due respect this isn't even Germany. We truly are exceptional. Have a little faith in your amazing homeland.
    SeanT our time has passed. You are remembering where we were 60 years ago and since then it has only gone one way, downhill. Of course I am open to hearing evidence to support what you say based on more recent events after all, even Greece & Italy can lay claim to starting empires that are talked about even today, on this board anyway.

    I live next to Singapore so know it well and agree, from experience, with what HYUFD has posted. I spend more than half the year outside the UK so I get an appreciation of what the world thinks of us (or at least SE Asia in my case). They say Brexit will be a disaster for us as our financial centre will move abroad (hopefully towards them it has to be said). Our tax return, necessary to support the NHS, Pensions, Defence, etc will decrease because key jobs and businesses will move abroad to be able to trade (as we live in global not local economy) and finally the trade deals we will sign up for will be in their favour, not ours, as we need them not the other way around once we are out of Europe.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Speedy said:

    PPP is going to release a bunch of post debate polls, tonight at MSNBC (Maddow's show) and tommorow.

    PPP is hinting at a Hillary lead of 7 points.

    https://twitter.com/maddow/status/781269157883080704
    https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/781272822744219648
    https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/781274291241361408

    7 is Dem happiness levels not Hillary's lead and PPP also had the lowest Hillary lead in debate victor polls
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Speedy said:

    PPP is going to release a bunch of post debate polls, tonight at MSNBC (Maddow's show) and tommorow.

    PPP is hinting at a Hillary lead of 7 points.

    I thought that was a 7/10.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    PPP is going to release a bunch of post debate polls, tonight at MSNBC (Maddow's show) and tommorow.

    PPP is hinting at a Hillary lead of 7 points.

    https://twitter.com/maddow/status/781269157883080704
    https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/781272822744219648
    https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/781274291241361408

    7 is Dem happiness levels not Hillary's lead and PPP also had the lowest Hillary lead in debate victor polls
    sounds like small leads in most states.

    wonder what the big campaign news is
  • "advance look at a bombshell story that will hit the campaign tmro"

    Given it is MSNBC, that means bad for Trump
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    619 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    PPP is going to release a bunch of post debate polls, tonight at MSNBC (Maddow's show) and tommorow.

    PPP is hinting at a Hillary lead of 7 points.

    https://twitter.com/maddow/status/781269157883080704
    https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/781272822744219648
    https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/781274291241361408

    7 is Dem happiness levels not Hillary's lead and PPP also had the lowest Hillary lead in debate victor polls
    sounds like small leads in most states.

    wonder what the big campaign news is
    If they are trailing it, you can bet it's a non-story.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Ally_B said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:


    The UK will never compete with Switzerland and the US on capitalism, let alone Singapore or the UAE. Nor will we ever have a chance of competing with Singapore on gdp per capita beyond inner London. We are not a socialist country but nor are we a laissez-faire capitalist coun

    Loser. Coward. Think big. Think BREXIT.
    FFS this is Britain, home of the English language, the Industrial Revolution and the world's largest empire. This isn't some pissant nation, with all due respect this isn't even Germany. We truly are exceptional. Have a little faith in your amazing homeland.
    SeanT our time has passed. You are remembering where we were 60 years ago and since then it has only gone one way, downhill. Of course I am open to hearing evidence to support what you say based on more recent events after all, even Greece & Italy can lay claim to starting empires that are talked about even today, on this board anyway.

    I live next to Singapore so know it well and agree, from experience, with what HYUFD has posted. I spend more than half the year outside the UK so I get an appreciation of what the world thinks of us (or at least SE Asia in my case). They say Brexit will be a disaster for us as our financial centre will move abroad (hopefully towards them it has to be said). Our tax return, necessary to support the NHS, Pensions, Defence, etc will decrease because key jobs and businesses will move abroad to be able to trade (as we live in global not local economy) and finally the trade deals we will sign up for will be in their favour, not ours, as we need them not the other way around once we are out of Europe.
    Agree on your general premise, albeit not quite as pessimistically. Even if some City firms move abroad I expect London will still be a major global centre and probably still the financial centre of Europe. The fact Brexit has not hit our economy too hard so far and we are still getting companies to invest here is encouraging and of course the fact we import a lot of manufactured goods but export principally services gives us some bargaining chips in trade negotiations. I voted Remain, with reservations and I certainly don't think Brexit is going to turn is into some free trading, capitalist nirvana but nor do I think we going to become a basketcase economy and enter a deep recession either. I also believe May is pragmatic enough to get a deal we can live with in the end. Goodnight
  • AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    It is galling for lefties that the obvious result of their working classes voting for Brexit is a much more rightwing, free-wheeling, aggressive and expansionist Tory-max 18th century Britain, with lower corporate taxes, massive investment in infrastructure where it helps (southern England), the stoning of suspicious foreigners on Cheapside, an end to *restraint* on bankers bonuses, big fuck off nuclear subs to menace Belgium with incineration, plentiful gin, and so forth

    Actually on economic policy May is slightly to the left of Cameron and Osborne, having largely abandoned austerity and promised workers on business boards. She is certainly no fan of the excesses of capitalism
    The forces of Brexit are enormous, and will force her to the right. There is only one way for Britain to prosper post-Brexit, and it is by heading for the total free trading, Singapore option
    That won't really happen, Singapore is a city state of 5 million, the UK is a nation of 60 million. Your vision would work for an independent London but not for the Midlands and North too. State spending will still be needed for them and there will at least be some tariffs levied on goods and services traded between the EU and the UK even if May manages to get some single market access because of the free movement controls she will impose
    Nope. Need to think big.

    Post-Brexit Britain needs to be Singapore times 10. Literally, in many ways.

    THE most advanced, competitive and capitalist economy on the planet.

    Singapore's GDP per capita is $60-80,000 or thereabouts (depending on how you measure it, and against our $40,000). If we can come close to them we would have the biggest and strongest overall economy in Europe, rivalling Germany.

    Maybe we need to introduce Singapore-style education to the UK.
    FWIW, the new GCSE maths syllabus is noticeably more "challenging" than the old one - its design consciously, and quite blatantly, borrows from foreign models including Singapore.
  • Trump coming up live from Wisconsin.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55w7B8rq-3Y
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016

    Trump coming up live from Wisconsin.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55w7B8rq-3Y

    The version of Trump talking this evening is doing far better than in the debate. He is attacking Clinton in a fairly effective way. Also, interesting he is deploying the African American's what have you got to lose.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158

    Trump coming up live from Wisconsin.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=55w7B8rq-3Y

    The version of Trump talking this evening is doing far better than in the debate. Also, interesting he is deploying the African American's what have you got to lose.
    Maybe he's actually listening to advice :p
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    RobD said:

    Trump coming up live from Wisconsin.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=55w7B8rq-3Y

    The version of Trump talking this evening is doing far better than in the debate. Also, interesting he is deploying the African American's what have you got to lose.
    Maybe he's actually listening to advice :p
    I don't know about that, but he far less rambling and he has been briefed with facts / figures about Clinton's record. He is also actually talking "normally", rather than that weird starting one thought and then changing to something completely different.

    If he had spoken like this in the debates vs Clinton-Bot-2000 it would have been a lot closer (albeit the bar being very low).

  • The plan might have worked if the referendum had happened during the coalition years and before the Trotskyite takeover of Labour.

    But isn't Trotskyism a tool of the Capitalists?

    http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Pretty sure I head him say 'get him out'... :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158

    RobD said:

    Trump coming up live from Wisconsin.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=55w7B8rq-3Y

    The version of Trump talking this evening is doing far better than in the debate. Also, interesting he is deploying the African American's what have you got to lose.
    Maybe he's actually listening to advice :p
    I don't know about that, but he far less rambling and he has been briefed with facts / figures about Clinton's record. He is also actually talking "normally", rather than that weird starting one thought and then changing to something completely different.

    If he had spoken like this in the debates vs Clinton-Bot-2000 it would have been a lot closer (albeit the bar being very low).
    Well I suppose the autocue helps!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    I assume we have spies watching MSNBC so we can find out what a) the poll results are, and b) what the bombshell story is about
  • Somebody appears to have switched out Trump's speech with a Bernie Sanders one for the autocue....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    New MI poll on 538:

    SEP. 27 Mitchell Research & Communications
    Clinton 46%
    Trump 41%
    Johnson 8%

    Previous poll, Sep 7:
    Clinton 45%
    Trump 39%
    Johnson 7%
  • Team Corbyn's tactic of pissing off all the media is working well....Unless you read the Guardian you would be excused for having no idea he gave a big speech.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-37502619
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Brutal...

    Gary Johnson had an "Aleppo moment" after @hardballchris asks who his favorite foreign leader is #JohnsonTownhall https://t.co/nRazpPL0q0
  • AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    It is galling for lefties that the obvious result of their working classes voting for Brexit is a much more rightwing, free-wheeling, aggressive and expansionist Tory-max 18th century Britain, with lower corporate taxes, massive investment in infrastructure where it helps (southern England), the stoning of suspicious foreigners on Cheapside, an end to *restraint* on bankers bonuses, big fuck off nuclear subs to menace Belgium with incineration, plentiful gin, and so forth

    Actually on economic policy May is slightly to the left of Cameron and Osborne, having largely abandoned austerity and promised workers on business boards. She is certainly no fan of the excesses of capitalism
    The forces of Brexit are enormous, and will force her to the right. There is only one way for Britain to prosper post-Brexit, and it is by heading for the total free trading, Singapore option
    That won't really happen, Singapore is a city state of 5 million, the UK is a nation of 60 million. Your vision would work for an independent London but not for the Midlands and North too. State spending will still be needed for them and there will at least be some tariffs levied on goods and services traded between the EU and the UK even if May manages to get some single market access because of the free movement controls she will impose
    Nope. Need to think big.

    Post-Brexit Britain needs to be Singapore times 10. Literally, in many ways.

    THE most advanced, competitive and capitalist economy on the planet.

    Singapore's GDP per capita is $60-80,000 or thereabouts (depending on how you measure it, and against our $40,000). If we can come close to them we would have the biggest and strongest overall economy in Europe, rivalling Germany.

    Maybe we need to introduce Singapore-style education to the UK.
    FWIW, the new GCSE maths syllabus is noticeably more "challenging" than the old one - its design consciously, and quite blatantly, borrows from foreign models including Singapore.
    The syllabus is only half the story: the other half is the teaching.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Ally_B said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:


    Loser. Coward. Think big. Think BREXIT.
    FFS this is Britain, home of the English language, the Industrial Revolution and the world's largest empire. This isn't some pissant nation, with all due respect this isn't even Germany. We truly are exceptional. Have a little faith in your amazing homeland.
    SeanT our time has passed. You are remembering where we were 60 years ago and since then it has only gone one way, downhill. Of course I am open to hearing evidence to support what you say based on more recent events after all, even Greece & Italy can lay claim to starting empires that are talked about even today, on this board anyway.

    I live next to Singapore so know it well and agree, from experience, with what HYUFD has posted. I spend more than half the year outside the UK so I get an appreciation of what the world thinks of us (or at least SE Asia in my case). They say Brexit will be a disaster for us as our financial centre will move abroad (hopefully towards them it has to be said). Our tax return, necessary to support the NHS, Pensions, Defence, etc will decrease because key jobs and businesses will move abroad to be able to trade (as we live in global not local economy) and finally the trade deals we will sign up for will be in their favour, not ours, as we need them not the other way around once we are out of Europe.
    Good post.

    The economic illiteracy of much of the Brexit stuff posted here, and that came out during the campaign, is frightening. Basing your 21st century approach to the global economy on the pseudo-history of our nation's past is a nonsense when the conditions for our previous dominance (a massive empire and the then underdevelopment of the world's current and emerging superpowers) have been and gone. There were some ridiculous scenes in Brexit the movie implying that our pre-1914 dominance in shipbuilding might return once we were free of EU regulation, rather overlooking the face that most big cruise ships nowadays are built in Hamburg.

    On a tangent from your post, I remember reading an interesting analysis some time back arguing that, apart from having started in the same place, there isn't much of a genetic link between 'Romans' and 'Italians'. I can't remember the detail, but vaguely recollect it had to do with the eventual dispersal of native Romans across a wide empire and the number of non-natives who ended up living in the Italian peninsula - slaves and the rest. Indeed the Dacians in modern Romania claim they are descended from a Roman legion that settled there en masse, and may be the closest genetic descendants of Ancient Rome.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Trump coming up live from Wisconsin.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=55w7B8rq-3Y

    The version of Trump talking this evening is doing far better than in the debate. Also, interesting he is deploying the African American's what have you got to lose.
    Maybe he's actually listening to advice :p
    I don't know about that, but he far less rambling and he has been briefed with facts / figures about Clinton's record. He is also actually talking "normally", rather than that weird starting one thought and then changing to something completely different.

    If he had spoken like this in the debates vs Clinton-Bot-2000 it would have been a lot closer (albeit the bar being very low).
    Well I suppose the autocue helps!
    the african american 'what have you got to lose' which doesnt work?

    he is on fox now going on a 10 min rant againat machado
  • Morning all.

    Apologies if already posted, but the Staggers is reporting Shami Chakrabarti, who recently became a Labour peer and chaired the party's anti-Semitism inquiry, is set to become shadow attorney general immediately after the Labour conference.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/09/exclusive-shami-chakrabarti-set-become-shadow-attorney-general

    This doesn’t look good, in fact it stinks.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Debate Winner Poll - NBC/Survey Monkey - Sample 7,541

    Clinton 52 .. Trump 21

    http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/poll-majority-voters-say-clinton-won-first-presidential-debate-n656231
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:
    Morning Jack!

    Any feelings on the key FOP states?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited September 2016

    JackW said:
    Morning Jack!

    Any feelings on the key FOP states?
    Good morning Doc Fox

    A mixed bag of FOP pre debate polls recently but with a trend to Trump. PPP have post debate polls in Florida and Pennsylvania out today. Also Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia.

    A note of caution on some recent state polls with demographic breakdowns that are bizzare !!

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    edited September 2016
    JackW said:

    JackW said:
    Morning Jack!

    Any feelings on the key FOP states?
    Good morning Doc Fox

    A mixed bag of FOP pre debate polls recently but with a trend to Trump. PPP have post debate polls in Florida and Pennsylvania out today. Also Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia.

    A note of caution on some recent state polls with demographic breakdowns that are bizzare !!

    Too many or two few black, Welsh, disabled, female trade unionists? :D
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:
    Morning Jack!

    Any feelings on the key FOP states?
    Good morning Doc Fox

    A mixed bag of FOP pre debate polls recently but with a trend to Trump. PPP have post debate polls in Florida and Pennsylvania out today. Also Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia.

    A note of caution on some recent state polls with demographic breakdowns that are bizzare !!

    Too many or two few black, Welsh, disabled, female trade unionists? :D
    :smiley:

    Undersample for Plato4Trump voters .. :smile:

    We seem to be in the 08/12 polling bubble again. Small samples with too few AA and hispanic voters and consequently higher white polling. Critical error in swing states with high minority demographics.
  • Morning all.

    Apologies if already posted, but the Staggers is reporting Shami Chakrabarti, who recently became a Labour peer and chaired the party's anti-Semitism inquiry, is set to become shadow attorney general immediately after the Labour conference.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/09/exclusive-shami-chakrabarti-set-become-shadow-attorney-general

    This doesn’t look good, in fact it stinks.

    Stinks of what? Cronyism? Maybe it will feature in Theresa May's speech: Corbyn as heir to Cameron.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    off topic.. why hasn't Trumpeteer become a thing?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    Morning all.

    Apologies if already posted, but the Staggers is reporting Shami Chakrabarti, who recently became a Labour peer and chaired the party's anti-Semitism inquiry, is set to become shadow attorney general immediately after the Labour conference.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/09/exclusive-shami-chakrabarti-set-become-shadow-attorney-general

    This doesn’t look good, in fact it stinks.

    Stinks of what? Cronyism? Maybe it will feature in Theresa May's speech: Corbyn as heir to Cameron.
    Stinks of somebody who provided a whitewash report on anti-semitism in the Labour Party shortly afterwards getting their shadow cabinet reward. Labour's new motto: Nothing to see here. Move along...

    Just ignore that person-shaped chalk outline on the pavement.
  • JackW said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:
    Morning Jack!

    Any feelings on the key FOP states?
    Good morning Doc Fox

    A mixed bag of FOP pre debate polls recently but with a trend to Trump. PPP have post debate polls in Florida and Pennsylvania out today. Also Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia.

    A note of caution on some recent state polls with demographic breakdowns that are bizzare !!

    Too many or two few black, Welsh, disabled, female trade unionists? :D
    :smiley:

    Undersample for Plato4Trump voters .. :smile:

    We seem to be in the 08/12 polling bubble again. Small samples with too few AA and hispanic voters and consequently higher white polling. Critical error in swing states with high minority demographics.
    When will we start to see predictions dropping out of the ARSE?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:
    Morning Jack!

    Any feelings on the key FOP states?
    Good morning Doc Fox

    A mixed bag of FOP pre debate polls recently but with a trend to Trump. PPP have post debate polls in Florida and Pennsylvania out today. Also Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia.

    A note of caution on some recent state polls with demographic breakdowns that are bizzare !!

    Too many or two few black, Welsh, disabled, female trade unionists? :D
    :smiley:

    Undersample for Plato4Trump voters .. :smile:

    We seem to be in the 08/12 polling bubble again. Small samples with too few AA and hispanic voters and consequently higher white polling. Critical error in swing states with high minority demographics.
    When will we start to see predictions dropping out of the ARSE?
    I though the technical term was "deposit"


    I'll get my coat............ :D
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Will Padbury
    If Shami Chakrabarti has only been a member 6 months she wouldn't be eligible to stand as a Labour MP but Corbyn's put her in the shad cab.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:
    Morning Jack!

    Any feelings on the key FOP states?
    Good morning Doc Fox

    A mixed bag of FOP pre debate polls recently but with a trend to Trump. PPP have post debate polls in Florida and Pennsylvania out today. Also Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia.

    A note of caution on some recent state polls with demographic breakdowns that are bizzare !!

    Too many or two few black, Welsh, disabled, female trade unionists? :D
    :smiley:

    Undersample for Plato4Trump voters .. :smile:

    We seem to be in the 08/12 polling bubble again. Small samples with too few AA and hispanic voters and consequently higher white polling. Critical error in swing states with high minority demographics.
    When will we start to see predictions dropping out of the ARSE?
    I think Mrs Jack has locked Jack's ARSE out of sight for present.

    We can only hope for glimpses.
  • JackW said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:
    Morning Jack!

    Any feelings on the key FOP states?
    Good morning Doc Fox

    A mixed bag of FOP pre debate polls recently but with a trend to Trump. PPP have post debate polls in Florida and Pennsylvania out today. Also Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia.

    A note of caution on some recent state polls with demographic breakdowns that are bizzare !!

    Too many or two few black, Welsh, disabled, female trade unionists? :D
    :smiley:

    Undersample for Plato4Trump voters .. :smile:

    We seem to be in the 08/12 polling bubble again. Small samples with too few AA and hispanic voters and consequently higher white polling. Critical error in swing states with high minority demographics.
    When will we start to see predictions dropping out of the ARSE?
    I think Mrs Jack has locked Jack's ARSE out of sight for present.

    We can only hope for glimpses.
    I guess the ARSE needs a lot of maintenance to stay fresh.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    PlatoSaid said:

    Will Padbury
    If Shami Chakrabarti has only been a member 6 months she wouldn't be eligible to stand as a Labour MP but Corbyn's put her in the shad cab.

    She couldn't resist the greasy pole
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This is quite good

    Scott Adams

    https://youtu.be/EsH17taSBzo
  • IanB2 said:

    Ally_B said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:


    Loser. Coward. Think big. Think BREXIT.
    FFS this is Britain, home of the English language, the Industrial Revolution and the world's largest empire. This isn't some pissant nation, with all due respect this isn't even Germany. We truly are exceptional. Have a little faith in your amazing homeland.
    SeanT our time has passed. You are remembering where we were 60 years ago and since then it has only gone one way, downhill. Of course I am open to hearing evidence to support what you say based on more recent events after all, even Greece & Italy can lay claim to starting empires that are talked about even today, on this board anyway.

    I live next to Singapore so know it well and agree, from experience, with what HYUFD has posted. I spend more than half the year outside the UK so I get an appreciation of what the world thinks of us (or at least SE Asia in my case). They say Brexit will be a disaster for us as our financial centre will move abroad (hopefully towards them it has to be said). Our tax return, necessary to support the NHS, Pensions, Defence, etc will decrease because key jobs and businesses will move abroad to be able to trade (as we live in global not local economy) and finally the trade deals we will sign up for will be in their favour, not ours, as we need them not the other way around once we are out of Europe.
    most big cruise ships nowadays are built in Hamburg.
    Up to a point Lord Copper. It's actually Pappenburg (Meyer Werft), then Monfalcone et al for TinFincantieri in Italy and STX in Finland which builds the biggest.

    It will be a while yet, but Carnival Corp has signed an MOU to start building ships in China.....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited September 2016
    Sadly no ARSE4US this time. I'll do my best to steer PBers in the correct direction.

    The quacks want JackW time and Mrs JackW wants it too. So that's a wrap. :cry:

    ................................................

    Further to my PPP post down thread. They are teasing that these swing state polls, out this afternoon, are good news for Clinton.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    IanB2 said:

    Ally_B said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:


    Loser. Coward. Think big. Think BREXIT.
    FFS this is Britain, home of the English language, the Industrial Revolution and the world's largest empire. This isn't some pissant nation, with all due respect this isn't even Germany. We truly are exceptional. Have a little faith in your amazing homeland.
    SeanT our time has passed. You are remembering where we were 60 years ago and since then it has only gone one way, downhill. Of course I am open to hearing evidence to support what you say based on more recent events after all, even Greece & Italy can lay claim to starting empires that are talked about even today, on this board anyway.

    I live next to Singapore so know it well and agree, from experience, with what HYUFD has posted. I spend more than half the year outside the UK so I get an appreciation of what the world thinks of us (or at least SE Asia in my case). They say Brexit will be a disaster for us as our financial centre will move abroad (hopefully towards them it has to be said). Our tax return, necessary to support the NHS, Pensions, Defence, etc will decrease because key jobs and businesses will move abroad to be able to trade (as we live in global not local economy) and finally the trade deals we will sign up for will be in their favour, not ours, as we need them not the other way around once we are out of Europe.
    most big cruise ships nowadays are built in Hamburg.
    Up to a point Lord Copper. It's actually Pappenburg (Meyer Werft), then Monfalcone et al for TinFincantieri in Italy and STX in Finland which builds the biggest.

    It will be a while yet, but Carnival Corp has signed an MOU to start building ships in China.....
    So 3 of the biggest shipyards for cruise liners are in that moribund EU, and none in dynamic Brexit Britain?

    Some mistake surely?
  • AnneJGP said:

    AnneJGP said:



    Well, since I'm not a member of either party (although left-leaning), I can only make a stab at describing the difference as I see it.

    Seems to me the Conservatives are a pragmatic party - whatever they think will work to the advantage of the people they care about (your choice whether that's bankers or the country or whatever).


    tho the tories have given us a referendm and brexit. nothing pragmatic about it. unless the people they really care about are UKIP and Bill Cash
    It was pragmatism that pushed Mr Cameron into promising the referendum: he wanted to be re-elected and saw that as a necessary component in the manifesto.
    It was hubris more than pragmatism. He thought he would win easily and bury the awkward squad of Eurosceptics. At the time he first proposed it, making it an in-out referendum rather than a referendum on a particular treaty or aspect of the EU was seen as a way to tip the balance in favour of In because he thought that when push came to shove people would support the status quo.

    The plan might have worked if the referendum had happened during the coalition years and before the Trotskyite takeover of Labour.
    I'm not so sure. The British people have been looking for a chance to vote against the EU Project since probably Maastricht.
    William Hague's crushing defeat in 2001 suggests that isn't true.
    Hague's campaign didn't ring true because Blair had promised a referendum on euro membership - which he never called, of course, because he knew he would lose it.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    PlatoSaid said:

    Will Padbury
    If Shami Chakrabarti has only been a member 6 months she wouldn't be eligible to stand as a Labour MP but Corbyn's put her in the shad cab.

    If she'd been a member for 6 years she wouldn't be eligible to stand as a Labour MP?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    Boris won't resign over Heathrow, he has too much to lose. He'll vote against it and moan a bit, get some amendment through about noise pollution and make them commit to quieter aircraft within 10 years of it opening (something that's happening anyway) and call it a deal. If he resigns from being FS during Brexit he will not have any chance of ever being PM.

    Justine Greening is my bet, she is just as anti and has also been handed the hospital pass of poor schools reforms which she clearly doesn't support. I think that the 20/1 will come good and the 8/1 at Ladbrokes is value as well IMO.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:



    While I don't doubt it's easy to write the script, I seriously doubt that they failed to include software to discard multiple votes from the same IP. (yes, you could use your favorite bot net instead).

    I just went and voted multiple times in the Breitbart poll so you can assume nothing of the sort.

    Stopping the same IP voting multiple times doesn't work given that hundreds of people share the same IP these days.
  • IanB2 said:

    Ally_B said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:


    Loser. Coward. Think big. Think BREXIT.
    FFS this is Britain, home of the English language, the Industrial Revolution and the world's largest empire. This isn't some pissant nation, with all due respect this isn't even Germany. We truly are exceptional. Have a little faith in your amazing homeland.
    SeanT our time has passed. You are remembering where we were 60 years ago and since then it has only gone one way, downhill. Of course I am open to hearing evidence to support what you say based on more recent events after all, even Greece & Italy can lay claim to starting empires that are talked about even today, on this board anyway.

    I live next to Singapore so know it well and agree, from experience, with what HYUFD has posted. I spend more than half the year outside the UK so I get an appreciation of what the world thinks of us (or at least SE Asia in my case). They say Brexit will be a disaster for us as our financial centre will move abroad (hopefully towards them it has to be said). Our tax return, necessary to support the NHS, Pensions, Defence, etc will decrease because key jobs and businesses will move abroad to be able to trade (as we live in global not local economy) and finally the trade deals we will sign up for will be in their favour, not ours, as we need them not the other way around once we are out of Europe.
    most big cruise ships nowadays are built in Hamburg.
    Up to a point Lord Copper. It's actually Pappenburg (Meyer Werft), then Monfalcone et al for TinFincantieri in Italy and STX in Finland which builds the biggest.

    It will be a while yet, but Carnival Corp has signed an MOU to start building ships in China.....
    So 3 of the biggest shipyards for cruise liners are in that moribund EU, and none in dynamic Brexit Britain?

    Some mistake surely?
    British shipbuilding's decline long predates EU membership and can be traced back to the aftermath of WWII - our yards had kept going, so while the Germans more or less started afresh, British management and workers carried on as before - and with limited competition had some great years - but by the early 60s the Japanese & Germans had overtaken us.

    How they are faring versus Chinese competition in 10 years time will be interesting to see....
  • OT:Dont think this will do HP any good. Cant think of a more suicidal business strategy. If I had an HP printer next time I bought one it wouldnt be HP.

    Mail is reporting that they have allegedly done an update on their printers so that they no longer work with generic print cartridges.

    http://dailym.ai/2duOQTP.

    Personally I got a slightly more expensive epson version that comes with virtually unlimited ink.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Epson-EcoTank-Multifunction-Printer-Refillable/dp/B00T6JEIOA

    100ml of each colour - equivalent of 80 normal cartridges.

    And you just buy bottles and refil the cartridge when it is empty. Refills cost between £6 and £50 for a set depending on quality.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:



    While I don't doubt it's easy to write the script, I seriously doubt that they failed to include software to discard multiple votes from the same IP. (yes, you could use your favorite bot net instead).

    I just went and voted multiple times in the Breitbart poll so you can assume nothing of the sort.

    Stopping the same IP voting multiple times doesn't work given that hundreds of people share the same IP these days.
    I just tried the same poll. The first vote increased the tally by one, subsequent ones did nothing, even after refreshing the page.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Error messages on HP printers forcing those with them to purchase more expensive HP ink cartridges. Anyone experienced this ( from last Tuesday apparently) ?

    "So what had happened? Within a few hours, it quickly became clear that the source of the mystery lay in the fact that all the printers were manufactured by the same company — Hewlett-Packard, or HP. More specifically, the models in question all came from the OfficeJet, OfficeJet Pro and OfficeJet Pro X ranges, which cost anywhere between £70 and several hundred pounds.

    Unbeknown to the thousands of unsuspecting users around the world, HP had secretly installed the technological equivalent of a time-bomb in their printers, which effectively rendered them useless if their owners had installed cartridges which were not made by HP."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3812857/Has-Big-Brother-taken-printer-secretly-sure-use-ink-expensive-champagne.html#ixzz4LcqjXkyr
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    One, unlucky. Two, careless. Three...

    POLICE are investigating a third SNP MP over financial dealings.

    Dundee West MP Chris Law was detained and questioned in his home city yesterday.

    The investigation is focused on Law’s Spirit of Independence referendum campaign, where he toured Scotland in a refurbished Green Goddess fire engine in the run-up to the 2014 vote.

    Another of the SNP’s huge new intake of MPs, Natalie McGarry, was charged with embezzlement 
less than 24 hours before Law was questioned.


    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/a-8936562#ICID=sharebar_twitter
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited September 2016

    OT:Dont think this will do HP any good. Cant think of a more suicidal business strategy. If I had an HP printer next time I bought one it wouldnt be HP.

    Mail is reporting that they have allegedly done an update on their printers so that they no longer work with generic print cartridges.

    http://dailym.ai/2duOQTP.

    Personally I got a slightly more expensive epson version that comes with virtually unlimited ink.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Epson-EcoTank-Multifunction-Printer-Refillable/dp/B00T6JEIOA

    100ml of each colour - equivalent of 80 normal cartridges.

    And you just buy bottles and refil the cartridge when it is empty. Refills cost between £6 and £50 for a set depending on quality.

    Cartridges are an utter rip-off in the UK in anycase. Standard HP cartridges in the UK cost about 26 quid per set for most models of printer. I can buy genuine long life HP cartridge sets here, double the capacity of the standard ones for under 10 pounds equivalent without having to look outside the big shopping malls.

    Printer manufacturers tend to loss-leader their printers and then recoup the costs on the ink sales, which obviously doesnt work if you buy third party ink. If people move massively to third party ink cartridges, all that happens is printer prices will go up.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    IanB2 said:

    Ally_B said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:


    Loser. Coward. Think big. Think BREXIT.
    FFS this is Britain, home of the English language, the Industrial Revolution and the world's largest empire. This isn't some pissant nation, with all due respect this isn't even Germany. We truly are exceptional. Have a little faith in your amazing homeland.
    SeanT our time has passed. You are remembering where we were 60 years ago and since then it has only gone one way, downhill. Of course I am open to hearing evidence to support what you say based on more recent events after all, even Greece & Italy can lay claim to starting empires that are talked about even today, on this board anyway.

    I live next to Singapore so know it well and agree, from experience, with what HYUFD has posted. I spend more than half the year outside the UK so I get an appreciation of what the world thinks of us (or at least SE Asia in my case). They say Brexit will be a disaster for us as our financial centre will move abroad (hopefully towards them it has to be said). Our tax return, necessary to support the NHS, Pensions, Defence, etc will decrease because key jobs and businesses will move abroad to be able to trade (as we live in global not local economy) and finally the trade deals we will sign up for will be in their favour, not ours, as we need them not the other way around once we are out of Europe.
    most big cruise ships nowadays are built in Hamburg.
    Up to a point Lord Copper. It's actually Pappenburg (Meyer Werft), then Monfalcone et al for TinFincantieri in Italy and STX in Finland which builds the biggest.

    It will be a while yet, but Carnival Corp has signed an MOU to start building ships in China.....
    So 3 of the biggest shipyards for cruise liners are in that moribund EU, and none in dynamic Brexit Britain?

    Some mistake surely?
    British shipbuilding's decline long predates EU membership and can be traced back to the aftermath of WWII - our yards had kept going, so while the Germans more or less started afresh, British management and workers carried on as before - and with limited competition had some great years - but by the early 60s the Japanese & Germans had overtaken us.

    How they are faring versus Chinese competition in 10 years time will be interesting to see....
    But surely in Brexit Britain the Tyne and Clyde will resonate to the clang of shipbuilding using good honest Welsh Steel?
  • I see that both houses voted to overturn Obamas veto on the bill to allow people to sue foreign governments (so 911 victims can sue Saudi) by in excess of 2/3 majorities 97-1 in senate; 348-76 in reps.

    For all the froth about clinton and trump the real story of recent years is surely that the balance of power is draining from the president to congress.

    Maybe it is about time the House of Representatives appointed a prime minister to 'advise' the president?
  • Scott_P said:

    One, unlucky. Two, careless. Three...

    POLICE are investigating a third SNP MP over financial dealings.

    Dundee West MP Chris Law was detained and questioned in his home city yesterday.

    The investigation is focused on Law’s Spirit of Independence referendum campaign, where he toured Scotland in a refurbished Green Goddess fire engine in the run-up to the 2014 vote.

    Another of the SNP’s huge new intake of MPs, Natalie McGarry, was charged with embezzlement 
less than 24 hours before Law was questioned.


    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/a-8936562#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    Pity someone unified the Scottish police so there are no other Scottish forces who can enquire whether this one has got a bee in its bonnet about this.

    Who did that...er step forward SNP
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Oh dear, here we go again ......

    Mentally ill black man shot dead by police in San Diego

    An unarmed Ugandan refugee is shot dead by police after they say he pulled something from his pocket and took a "shooting stance

    Sky news
  • Indigo said:

    OT:Dont think this will do HP any good. Cant think of a more suicidal business strategy. If I had an HP printer next time I bought one it wouldnt be HP.

    Mail is reporting that they have allegedly done an update on their printers so that they no longer work with generic print cartridges.

    http://dailym.ai/2duOQTP.

    Personally I got a slightly more expensive epson version that comes with virtually unlimited ink.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Epson-EcoTank-Multifunction-Printer-Refillable/dp/B00T6JEIOA

    100ml of each colour - equivalent of 80 normal cartridges.

    And you just buy bottles and refil the cartridge when it is empty. Refills cost between £6 and £50 for a set depending on quality.

    Cartridges are an utter rip-off in the UK in anycase. Standard HP cartridges in the UK cost about 26 quid per set for most models of printer. I can buy genuine long life HP cartridge sets here, double the capacity of the standard ones for under 10 pounds equivalent without having to look outside the big shopping malls.

    Printer manufacturers tend to loss-leader their printers and then recoup the costs on the ink sales, which obviously doesnt work if you buy third party ink. If people move massively to third party ink cartridges, all that happens is printer prices will go up.
    Doubt it. My printer with virtually unlimited ink only cost £185. A bit more expensive but done a year in our house including several kids homework and still on first set of ink.
  • Moses_ said:

    Oh dear, here we go again ......

    Mentally ill black man shot dead by police in San Diego

    An unarmed Ugandan refugee is shot dead by police after they say he pulled something from his pocket and took a "shooting stance

    Sky news

    Who do these police work for? The Bureau of State Security (BOSS) run by Uncle Hendriks?
  • Alistair said:

    RobD said:



    While I don't doubt it's easy to write the script, I seriously doubt that they failed to include software to discard multiple votes from the same IP. (yes, you could use your favorite bot net instead).

    I just went and voted multiple times in the Breitbart poll so you can assume nothing of the sort.

    Stopping the same IP voting multiple times doesn't work given that hundreds of people share the same IP these days.
    I posted yesterday evening that I had managed to vote multiple times in the Time poll. The reality is that there is no known way to prevent multiple votes with this kind of poll.

    IP checks are not a good idea given that, as Alistair says, many people share IP addresses so you would be blocking valid votes. They are, in any case, easy to get around - botnets, IP spoofing, etc.

    Cookies are better but anyone reasonably technically savvy can deal with them simply by deleting the cookie. A scripted attack can ignore the cookie completely. And, of course, cookies don't stop one person voting from multiple computers.

    Captcha can reduce automated attacks but it won't eliminate them and does not prevent non-automated attacks.

    Making people log in makes the process more complex but the determined attacker will simply register multiple accounts - a process that can also be automated.

    The easier it is to vote in an online poll the easier it is to manipulate the result.
  • .

    Cookies are better but anyone reasonably technically savvy can deal with them simply by deleting the cookie.

    Has anyone thought to mention this to the Torygraph?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716

    I see that both houses voted to overturn Obamas veto on the bill to allow people to sue foreign governments (so 911 victims can sue Saudi) by in excess of 2/3 majorities 97-1 in senate; 348-76 in reps.

    For all the froth about clinton and trump the real story of recent years is surely that the balance of power is draining from th

    Maybe it is about time the House of Representatives appointed a prime minister to 'advise' the president?

    More power always drains away from a lame duck president as Obama is. Moreover few Democratic or Republican congressmen are going to prioritise Saudi Arabia over 9/11 victims' families. The Speaker of the House is basically the US Prime Minister i.e. at the moment Paul Ryan, the President is the equivalent of an elected Queen

  • RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:



    While I don't doubt it's easy to write the script, I seriously doubt that they failed to include software to discard multiple votes from the same IP. (yes, you could use your favorite bot net instead).

    I just went and voted multiple times in the Breitbart poll so you can assume nothing of the sort.

    Stopping the same IP voting multiple times doesn't work given that hundreds of people share the same IP these days.
    I just tried the same poll. The first vote increased the tally by one, subsequent ones did nothing, even after refreshing the page.
    They are using cookies. Took me 10 seconds to figure out what they are doing and cast a second vote. A scripted attack would have no problem with getting round their protection.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:



    While I don't doubt it's easy to write the script, I seriously doubt that they failed to include software to discard multiple votes from the same IP. (yes, you could use your favorite bot net instead).

    I just went and voted multiple times in the Breitbart poll so you can assume nothing of the sort.

    Stopping the same IP voting multiple times doesn't work given that hundreds of people share the same IP these days.
    I just tried the same poll. The first vote increased the tally by one, subsequent ones did nothing, even after refreshing the page.
    Open an incognito tab. They are just using a cookie to stop you voting multiple time, private browsing stops sending your cookies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716

    RobD said:

    Trump coming up live from Wisconsin.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=55w7B8rq-3Y

    The version of Trump talking this evening is doing far better than in the debate. Also, interesting he is deploying the African American's what have you got to lose.
    Maybe he's actually listening to advice :p
    I don't know about that, but he far less rambling and he has been briefed with facts / figures about Clinton's record. He is also actually talking "normally", rather than that weird starting one thought and then changing to something completely different.

    If he had spoken like this in the debates vs Clinton-Bot-2000 it would have been a lot closer (albeit the bar being very low).
    There are still 2 debates to go of Trump v Clinton, we have only had one
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    OT:Dont think this will do HP any good. Cant think of a more suicidal business strategy. If I had an HP printer next time I bought one it wouldnt be HP.

    Mail is reporting that they have allegedly done an update on their printers so that they no longer work with generic print cartridges.

    http://dailym.ai/2duOQTP.

    Personally I got a slightly more expensive epson version that comes with virtually unlimited ink.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Epson-EcoTank-Multifunction-Printer-Refillable/dp/B00T6JEIOA

    100ml of each colour - equivalent of 80 normal cartridges.

    And you just buy bottles and refil the cartridge when it is empty. Refills cost between £6 and £50 for a set depending on quality.

    Cartridges are an utter rip-off in the UK in anycase. Standard HP cartridges in the UK cost about 26 quid per set for most models of printer. I can buy genuine long life HP cartridge sets here, double the capacity of the standard ones for under 10 pounds equivalent without having to look outside the big shopping malls.

    Printer manufacturers tend to loss-leader their printers and then recoup the costs on the ink sales, which obviously doesnt work if you buy third party ink. If people move massively to third party ink cartridges, all that happens is printer prices will go up.
    Doubt it. My printer with virtually unlimited ink only cost £185. A bit more expensive but done a year in our house including several kids homework and still on first set of ink.
    That's a hell of a lot more than the standard printers you can buy in Tesco for £40, but which has basically the same technology inside. They need to get that extra 145 notes back from somewhere.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    S&P saying in a round about way that our net trade will improve GDP by 1.2% over the next 6 quarters. Mostly due to weak Sterling. Quite a decent gain for nothing.
  • Good morning, comrades.

    F1 rules updates for next year:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37501676

    "The World Council rubber-stamped a decision to have a standing restart for a wet race that starts under the safety car."

    So, a few laps of trundling around in the rain. Then a standing start. Why bother? Why not have 60 odd racing laps instead of 60 minus however many times they run around slowly with no overtaking?

    "The uncertainty over the Canadian, German and Brazilian races is not specified."

    Displeasing. Canada and Brazil have two of the best circuits on the calendar. I'd guess the German matter is simply the alternating nature of its appearance on the calendar.
This discussion has been closed.